Idol Superstitions – The Final Predictions

Sniff! As a long-time home-owner on the Grassy Knoll, I am sad. It is the end of an era. It is a time to mourn. It is time to lock up the old homestead and move on from the soon-to-be ghost-town as we bid adieu to Idol this week. No other American reality singing competition show has generated as much fan craziness and devotion as American Idol. Back in the good old days, we would spend hours pouring over imagined slights and trying to read the tea leaves to figure out who was the chosen one, rally around whoever had been run over by a bus and try to figure out how to make Nigel’s fuzzy head explode.

One of the off-shoots of all of this over-analysis was the Idol Superstitions: rules that help us to predict who will actually win and who is doomed to forever be labeled “The real winner of Idol”. So, for one last time, let’s round up the craziness and see who is going to win this thing so we don’t have to worry about that anymore – we can just eat our popcorn and enjoy the nostalgia and if the DVR cuts out at 10 pm and the winner still isn’t announced, we won’t need to throw things at the TV, we will already know the results.

It is time for IDOL SUPERSTITIONS….

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I) Who are You Wearing?

In the first season of Glee, long before it went off the rails and became what it once parodied, Rachel rightly pointed out that using Hairography to distract the audience from bad singing might work for a while, but will ultimately fail. The audience will eventually see through the manipulation. But I think it goes further than that. I think that too much attention paid to appearance will even distract from good singing and will convince the audience that the performer is getting by on gimmicks. They become less about the singing and more about their style. It inevitably erodes credibility.

In a way, it is even coded into the show. Paula Abdul never wanted to say anything bad about anybody. So, if a contestant stunk up the joint, Paula would find something in their look to compliment (their hair, their shoes, their good aura, anything). In the end, Paula’s compliments about styling became harsher than any criticism that Simon could ever lob. If Paula was reduced to saying you looked great, it meant there wasn’t one thing good about your performance.

Even though Paula is long-gone from the show, judges mentioning it can still hurt you. When they are talking about your stylish new hairdo, they aren’t talking about how you killed it in the performance. When your chat with Ryan becomes about why you chose to wear that outfit, it is not about your creative musical decisions. And when fans can only talk about what you will do with your look this week, you become more like a contestant on America’s Next Top Model.

Fundamentally, it is a singing competition and paying too much attention to styling will turn some voters completely off.

Let’s examine the hairography and styling of the show of the show:

1. Kelly was big on the non-nonsense styling while Justin became all about the hair. I didn’t even watch the show until the finale and even I had heard all about Justin’s hair. What did I know about Kelly? She was a great singer. Theory Correct.

2. Ruben wore dumpy over-sized sports shirts while Clay had a major make-over. Ruben’s shirts were initially a gimmick, but discussion about them eventually died out and he did start dressing like a contestant should. Meanwhile, people couldn’t stop talking about Clay’s nerd-to-Ryan make-over. Theory Correct.

3. Google a picture of Fantasia’s audition and then of her in the finale. She doesn’t appear to have changed one thing about her look. She was all about the singing. Meanwhile, Diana was constantly modifying her look. She was the one labeled a pageant-bot and never shook it. Theory Correct.

4. Carrie obviously paid more attention to styling and converted her farm look into a super-star look, but it is Bo who got most of the stlying discussion during that season. Carrie looked like an AI contestant and people could not stop talking about how Bo’s long hair and beard meant he did not. Focus pulled from singing. Theory Correct.

Side note: he did change the definition of what an Idol can look like forever and the straight-jacket was removed.

5. Taylor’s grey hair and crappy $8 cut was initially a subject of much discussion, but his absolute refusal to be more stylish and dye his hair marked him as a serious musician. Meanwhile, chatter about Katharine’s hair extensions, wardrobe malfunctions and general beautifulness became more prevalent than talk about her singing. Theory Correct.

6. Jordin could have been another Kat as the show did make some noise about designers sending her dresses and the fact that she is gorgeous, but Blake was more into style than her. He constantly modified his look and the week he changed the face of re-arranging on Idol forever (Bon Jovi Week), people were talking about he dyed his hair black. Would the show have turned out differently if he hadn’t decided to pull focus on his creative talents? Theory Correct.

7. Cook came into the season looking tragic. If he paid somebody to style his hair that way, he paid them too much. He’s gone on to say that it was a strategy. His make-over from fashion faux pas to normal looking person was part of his story arc. Meanwhile, Archie came in looking like a cherub and did not change one hair. Theory Incorrect.

8. Kris lost his stupid hat, but he kept the same casual hip vibe throughout. Adam re-invented himself each week and there was even talk that he brought in his own hair-dresser. Adam was a style maven. He has actually been a judge on style shows. Theory Correct.

9. Lee’s unfortunate facial hair got much discussion, but nobody could argue that he was trying to look stylish with it. Eventually, it became cruel to mention his merkin anymore. Meanwhile, Crystal’s dreads and her eventual decision to wear heals later in the competition got much more chatter. Theory correct.

10. Scotty came into his audition looking like a kiwi fruit and the Idol stylists refused to cut his hair until it got to a length that didn’t make him look like he’d been shaved in an attempt to stop a bad lice infection. The only person who missed that look was JLo, so we stopped talking about his style update. Lauren meanwhile changed up her hair and style and her dye jobs got much debate. Theory Correct.

11. Phil rolled out of bed, ruffled his hair and went to perform. He did get critised for that, but he was clearly just being him. Jessica actually listened to the stylists and frequently wore beautiful gowns. Phil’s all-about-the-music styling clearly convinced audiences that he was. Theory correct.

12. Kree was simply styled all week and one could see the thread from beginging to end. Candice was willing to take chances with style and her looks were frequently commented on by the judges. Theory Incorrect.

13. Caleb was Caleb. Much like Phil, he wasn’t going to change or take a shower. Jena? Even JLo admired her new styles during the judges of her performance. Theory correct.

14. Nick and Clark were both pretty low key, but Clark at least changed up his look a little. I can’t really argue that either drew any fashion discussion (Jax was the lightening rod that year and was eliminated Top 2 night) – Theory has no relevance.

So, what does it mean for our contestants this year? Trent lost his scarves and goofy hats, but we don’t talk much about that anymore. Dalton made getting his hair done a major part of his hometown visit and many detractors think he is getting by on looks. LaPorsha’s style is discussed almost as much as her performances. She started out with strangely coloured hair (seriously, that colour does not happen in nature and she wasn’t going for a quirky look) styled in the manner of a troll doll. Then, she went to an afro and died it various shades. Finally, we learned that she spent 14 hours getting corn-rows. And even Melinda/Slezak talk about how the stylists are dressing her.

Advantage: Trent > Dalton > LaPorsha

Advantage: 11/13 – 85%
Confidence: Medium

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II) Where Did You Say You Were From?

I actually hate this theory because I feel it is laced with regionalism and the definition of the South is too fluid. The theory goes that people from the South and small towns in particular have such insignificant lives that they have nothing to do all day but vote for their neighbours. Meanwhile, people who live not-in-the-South have busy lives and if they find a few seconds to vote, they only vote for those who truly merit winning.

Let’s get this one out of the way early because not only will I not satisfy people on what I classify as “South” (one year, I get criticized for calling a state non-South so I call it South the next and get called stupid again), but also, all of the remaining contestants are from small Southern towns so this superstition has no predictive value at all.

So, for one last time:

1. Kelly (Texas-S)/Justin (Pennsylvania-N) – Correct
2. Ruben (Alabama-S)/Clay (North Carolina-S) – Correct
3. Fantasia (North Carolina-S)/Diana (Georgia-S) – Correct
4. Carrie (Oklahoma-S/MW/NNW/SoC/NoM)/Bo (Alabama-S) – Correct
5. Taylor (Alabama-S)/Katharine (California-S) – Correct
6. Jordin (Arizona-Not Called Southern)/Blake (Washington-PNW) – Incorrect (nobody from the South)
7. Cook (Missouri-MW)/Archie (Utah-??[NMW?]) – Incorrect (nobody from the South)
8. Kris (Arkansas-S)/Adam (California-Not Called Southern even though San Diego is South of the entire State of Arkansas) – Correct
9. Lee (Illinois-N)/Crystal (Ohio-N) – Incorrect (nobody from the South)
10. Scotty (North Carolina-S)/Lauren (Georgia-S) – Correct
11. Phil (Georgia-S)/Jessica (California-Not Called South) – Correct
12. Kree (Texas-S)/Candice(South Carolina-S) – Correct
13. Caleb (North Carolina)/Jena (Michigan) – Correct
14. Nick (Connecticut-N)/Clark (Tennessee-S) – Incorrect

Advantage: Nobody
Accuracy: 10/14 – 71%

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III) How Do You Spell That?

This theory is fun. Double letters in your name is good JuJu on Idol. Fortune smiles on those whose parents gave them two letters in a row in their name. If one selects a nickname with double-letters, the fates are even happier. Woe to those who toss out the part of their name with double-letters. Tsathoggua will eat them and spit out their bones.

1: Kelly Brianne Clarkson (2) vs Justin Eldrin Guarani (0) – Correct
2: Christopher Theodore Ruben Studdard (1) vs Clayton Holmes Aiken (0) – Correct
3: Fantasia Monique Barrino (1) vs Diane Nicole Degarmo (0) – Correct (Fantasia wisely chose not to drop that last name until after she won)
4: Carrie Marie Underwood (2) vs Harold Edwin “Bo” Bice (Harold->Harry for a nickname might have helped) – Correct
5: Taylor Ruben Hicks (0) vs Katharine Hope McPhee (1) – Incorrect
6: Jordin Brianna Sparks (1) vs Blake Colin Lewis (0) – Correct
7: David Roland Cook (1) vs David James Archuleta (0) – Correct (if the common misspelling of Archie’s last name had only been correct…)
8: Kristopher Neil Allen (1) vs Adam Mitchel Lambert (0) – Correct
9: Leon (Lee) James Dewyze (1 – Nice save with the nickname) vs Crystal Lynn Bowersox (1 – in the unheard middle name – completely swamped by the competition nick name) – Correct
10: Scotty Cooke McCreery (4) vs Lauren Alaina [Suddeth] (eaten by Tsathy for dropping that last name) – Correct
11: Phillip Phillips (2 – plus the repeat names!!!) vs Jessica Sanchez (1) – Correct
12: Candace Rickelle Glover (1) vs Kree Annette Harrison (4) – Incorrect
13: Caleb Perry Johnson (1) vs JENA [Irene [Ascuitto]] (Last name drop? – Tsathy chow!) – Correct.
14: Nick James Fradiani (0) vs Clark Paul Beckham (0) – Inconclusive (not helpful guys)

15: Dalton Louis Rapattoni (1) vs Trent [] Harmon (0) vs LaPorsha Renae [Myers] (0 – dropping the last name never seems to help)

Advantage: Dalton > Trent = LaPorsha
Accuracy: 11/13 – 85%

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IV) How Many of You are There?

Like it or not, we all have biases. There are certain genres we like. There are certain styles we like. There may even be certain types of voices we like. So, if we like a certain contestant, we also may be more likely to like a contestant that is similar. If our favourite gets eliminated top 3, are we more likely to vote for a contestant like that contestant or somebody completely different? Maybe yes some years and no others.

This theory argues that the majority of the votes belonging to the eliminated contestant will slide to the contestant of the same gender. Or perhaps they are sliding to the best friend of the eliminated contestant and that is more likely to be the contestant of the same sex. So, whichever gender has the majority in the top 3, the contestant of that gender is more likely to win.

1. Kelly/Justin/Nikki – two females, one male = female winner – Correct
2. Ruben/Clay/Kim – two males, one female = male winner – Correct
3. Fantasia/Diana/Jasmine – three females = female winner – Correct
4. Carrie/Bo/Vonzell – two females, one male = female winner – Correct
5. Taylor/Katharine/Elliot – two males, one female = male winner – Correct
6. Jordin/Blake/Melinda – two females, one male = female winner – Correct
7. Cookie/Archie/Syesha – two males, one female = male winner – Correct
8. Kris/Adam/Gokey – three males = male winner – Correct
9. Lee/Crystal/Casey – two males, one female = male winner – Correct
10. Scotty/Lauren/Haley – two females, one male = male winner – Incorrect
11. Phil/Jessica/Josh – two males, one female = male winner – Correct
12. Candice/Kree/Angie – three females – female winner – correct
13. Caleb/Jena/Alex – two males, one female = male winner – Correct
14. Clark/Jax/Nick – two males, one female -> male winner – Correct

16. Dalton/Trent/LaPorsha – two males, one female

Advantage: Dalton/Trent over LaPorsha
Accuracy: 13/14 – 93%

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V) Haven’t I Seen You Before?

If you didn’t win the first time, what makes you think you are going to win this time? It is possible that the reason a contestant does not have a career and frequently fails at reality singing competition auditions is that they just don’t have the “IT” factor. Or it might be because they just need a little seasoning. Idol winners are typically first time auditioneers. Persistence rarely pays off. At least in the early seasons. We are seeing the balance tip as those with more experience being better at playing the game – and the game must be played.

1. Kelly vs Justin – obviously, both first time auditioners
2. Ruben vs Clay – apparently, both first time auditioners
3. Fantasia vs Diana – first timers, though Diana had done the pageant circuit
4. Carrie vs Bo – first time for each
5. Taylor vs Kat – two first timers
6. Jordin vs Blake – first timers – but Jordin did audition in two cities (cut in the arena the first time) and

was on the kids version of AI
7. David vs David – also first timers (Archuleta had been on Star Search)
8. Kris vs Adam – first time auditioners
9. Lee vs Crystal – first time auditioners
10. Scotty vs Lauren – first time auditioners
11. Phillip vs Jessica – both auditioned for AGT
12. Candice (auditioned Seasons 9, 10 and 11) vs Kree (first timer)
13. Caleb (auditioned Seasons 10 and 11) vs Jena (X-Factor)
14. Nick (band on AGT) vs Clark (first-timer)

If we throw out all the years where there are only first timers and Season 11 where the two finalists had auditioned for the same show, we are left with Seasons 6, 7, 12,13 and 14. Jordin, Candice, Caleb and NIck had the most relevant experience and they won. Archuletta is the only one that lost.

As far as I know, both LaPorsha is a first time auditioner. Thanks to poster flicker, we know that Trent auditioned in the base for The Voice. Dalton was previously part of a boy band (IM5) created by Simon Fuller and Perez Hilton. He’s got to be the most experienced. (Fun Fact: He was in one of Todrick Hall’s Disney Dudez Videos).

Advantage: Dalton > Trent > LaPorsha
Accuracy: 80% (with 5 data points).

Side note: Trent may be newish to the game, but Idol insider Rick (social media mentor) has repeatedly mentioned that Trent is playing that game the hardest.

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VI) You’re Unique, aren’t You?

This is a new theory (we have one every year). This theory is that polarizing contestants can’t win.

All season long, people vote for the contestants they want to keep. When there are only two contestants left, they can effectively vote for the contestant they don’t want to see win. I’m guilty of that. The first season of Canadian Idol I tossed a few votes to the guy who did not mumble his way through songs (the mumbling drove me crazy). He won.

So, let’s see if we can figure out who is the more polarizing contestant – the one more people are going to vote against for [reasons].

1. Kelly vs Justin – Kelly Clarkson was a great singer, but a lot of people thought Justin got through based on looks. Plus, he sassed the judges. The Less Polarizing contestant won.

2. Ruben vs Clay – Ruben was the velvet Teddy Bear singing a style of recognizable Adult R&B. Clay sang glory notes which was rare in guys (and was not a popular style for guys at the time) and his Claymates frightened people. Plus, lots of people thought he was gay (I’m not saying it is right – it’s not – I’m just saying there are people out there who won’t vote for you because of that and there were lots of people like that back in the day). The Less Polarizing Contestant won.

3. Fantasia vs Diana – Diana was a pageant-bot which most people find kind of off-putting. Fantasia was a single mom which generated a lot of controversy on the show back in the day (lots of people said that a single, unmarried mom does not fit the definition of an American Idol – again, I’m not saying it was right, I’m saying what people were saying). After Elton John called America racists for the divas hitting the bottom 3, things got more controversial. In the end, I think Fantasia was the least polarizing contestants. Not only was she mad talented, but who wants to be called a racist by Elton? I’d agree that this season is debatable.

4. Carrie vs Bo – Bo did not look like an American Idol contestant. Carrie did. The Less Polarizing contestant won.

5. Taylor vs Kat – Bo smoothed the way for Idols to look different and Kat became very polarizing. Not only did people blame her for the elimination of Daughtry and Elliott (not saying it was fair to blame her), but she was also accused of manufacturing wardrobe malfunctions. Her mother muddied the water by becoming an on-line presence and her father was accused of being a Fox executive. When her parents cheered widely when Elliott was eliminated (it meant Kat made it through), her fate was sealed. Season 5 is probably the most fractious fanwar year I’ve ever seen, but nobody generated hatred like Kat. Less Polarizing contestant won.

6. Jordin vs Blake – Jordin was hated for being TCO, but Blake was more polarizing. He had a middling voice and was accused of surviving due to his looks and weird arrangements (which would not be generally accepted as a positive until the next season). Less Polarizing contestant won.

7. Cook vs. Archie – Cook had a voice and made re-arrangements an asset. Archie had a meddling father that managed to get himself mainstream news coverage for his obnoxiousness. Plus, there was the religious elephant in the room (not saying it is right, just saying that’s how some people vote). The Less Polarizing contestant won.

8. Kris vs Adam – Kris was mainstream while Adam went for the more exotic/dramatic performances/style. Plus, Adam was widely believed to be gay (again, not saying it is right for people to be homophobic, but it could have been a factor and just being realistic). The Less Polarizing contestant won.

9. Lee vs Crystal – Crystal had dreads and a tude. Lee was just a former paintsalesman who sang off-key. The Less Polarizing contestant won.

10. Scotty vs Lauren – Scotty started off more controversial with Hollywood editing shenanigans, but he smoothed that over. Lauren was blamed for Haley’s loss and accused of being over-pimped to manufacture an all-country final (a lot of people did not like her personality either). The Less Controversial contestant won.

11. Phillip vs Jessica – Phillip’s refusal to change his shirt annoyed a lot of people, but many more people felt Jessica should not win because she had been eliminated by the voters and saved by the judges. The Less Controversial contestants won.

12. Candice vs Kree – after the pathetic male contestants were eliminated, there was no controversy with contestants. Mariah and Nicki supplied the drama for that season.

13. Caleb vs Jenna – Caleb did his thing. Jenna got more online abuse for her style. IDK. She seemed more polarizing to me. Caleb was good at what he did and consistent.

14. Nick vs Clark – Nick is very low-key and I can’t think of a single controversial thing about him except that he was the oldest contestant. Clark’s refusal to sing various types of songs made him more of a lightening rod. The Less Polarizing Contestant won.

Let’s analyze Season 15. Dalton seems the most polarizing. Those that like him, love him. Those that don’t think he’s getting through based on gimmicks. Trent had his mono and faces, but he’s drama free since then. LaPorsha works her sob-story like it’s a job (which is off-putting to some. Plus, some people hate her styling).

Advantage: Trent > LaPorsha > Dalton (although, I admit it’s a polarizing debate).
Accuracy: 10/12 – 83%

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VII) Why are you always last?

I recently read about how some universities prioritize lists for admittance to popular classes. You are prioritized if it is your major or if you have fewer years to graduate (seniors can’t take it next year). Ties are broken by alphabetical order which is seen as the only fair way. Take it from somebody who used to be at the end of the alphabet: that’s not fair. Reversing the order next year still doesn’t make it fair because those on either end of the alphabet alternatively get screwed while those in the middle do alright.

Ahem.

Idol voters seem to prefer the contestant who comes later in the alphabet.

1. Kelly/Justin – Correct
2. Ruben/Clay – Correct
3. Fantasia/Diana – Correct
4. Carrie/Bo – Correct (Bo was so wrong to change his name from Harold)
5. Taylor/Katharine – Correct
6. Jordin/Blake – Correct
7. David C/David A – Correct
8. Kris/Adam – Correct
9. Lee/Crystal – Correct
10. Scotty/Lauren – Correct
11. Phil/Jessica – Correct
12. Kree/Candice – Incorrect
13. Jena/Caleb – Incorrect
14. Nick/Clark – Correct

Advantage: Trent > LaPorsha > Dalton
Accuracy: 12/14 – 86%

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IX) Haven’t You Left Already?

Idol winners usually avoid hitting the seal. If you almost get eliminated top 10, how are you going to have the votes to win the entire thing? Plus, if you keep being in the bottom, people think you are a cockroach contestant (and get blamed for everybody who does get boot). Sometimes, it is hard to tell who is in the bottom because Ryan doesn’t tell us, but when we do know, it can be predictive.

1. Kelly (0) vs Justin (1 (B2 top 7)): Advantage Kelly – Correct

2 Ruben (1 (B2 top 5)) vs Clay (WC): I’m going to give it to Clay. Only 2 advanced out of the round and Ruben hit bottom 2 when there were 5 contestants. Clay could have been no worse than third all competition long – Incorrect.

3. Fantasia (2 (B2 top 7 & 4) vs Diana (3 (B3-11,9 and 8)) – Diana hit the bottom more frequently, but Fantasia hit it later. Diana seems to have the advantage, although lots of people thought she was forever on borrowed time and Fantasia’s bottom 2’s were widely seen as being shocking rather than deserved – Incorrect.

4. Carrie (0) vs Bo (1 (B2Top 8)): Advantage Carrie – Correct

5. Taylor (0) vs Kat (2 (B2 Top 10 & 4)) : Advantage Taylor – Correct

6. Jordin (0) vs Blake (1 (B3 Top 7)): Advantage Jordin – Correct

7. David (0) vs David (0): Advantage none – Indeterminate

8. Kris (1 (B3 Top 5)) vs Adam (1 (B 2Top 5)): Advantage Kris (B3 is better than B2) – Correct

9. Lee (0) vs Crystal (0): Indeterminate

10. Scotty (0) vs Lauren (1 (B2 Top 5): Advantage Scotty – Correct

11. Phillip (0) vs Jessica (1 (Eliminated and Saved – Top 7): Advantage Phil – Correct

12. Candice (1 (B2 – Top 4A) vs Kree (Bottom 2 – Top 5): Advantage Kree (bottom 2 earlier) – Incorrect

13. Caleb (0) vs Jena (2 (WC, B3 Top 2): Advantage: Caleb – Correct

14. Nick (0) vs Clark (0) – Indeterminate

15. Trent (0) > Dalton (B2 Top 5) > LaPorsha (B2 Top 4) – Advantage Trent

Accuracy: 77%

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IX) No, You Go First.

It’s called the pimp spot for a reason. If you sing last, you get to make a lasting impression. The last spot allows the producers to pimp a contestant and give them a lift. It isn’t just the Idol Loonies that believed this – so do the contestants and producers. Choice of singing order for the finale was left up to a coin toss for years. Idols who won the coin toss got to choose who sang first (a few of the guys let the girl choose which I continue to think is daft. It’s a competition. If I choose to compete with guys, I don’t expect them to give me an advantage) and most contestants given the choice choose to sing first.

1. Kelly/Justin: Kelly won the coin toss, sang last – Correct
2. Ruben/Clay: Clay won the coin toss, sang last – Incorrect
3. Fantasia/Diana: Fantasia won the coin toss, sang last – Correct
4. Carrie/Bo: Carrie won the coin toss, sang last – Correct
5. Taylor/Kat: Taylor won the coin toss, sang last – Correct
6. Jordin/Blake: Blake won the coin toss, gave the choice to Jordin who sang last – Correct
7. Cook/Archie: Archie won the coin toss, sang last – Incorrect
8. Kris/Adam: Kris won the coin toss, sang last – Correct
9. Lee/Crystal: Crystal won the coin toss, sang last – Incorrect
10. Scotty/Lauren: Scotty won the coin toss, gave the choice to Lauren who sang last – Incorrect
11. Phil/Jessica: Phil won the coin toss, sang last and won – Correct
12. Candice/Kree: Kree won the coin toss, chose to sing first (?!?!?) and Candice who sang last – Correct
13. Caleb/Jena: Jena won the coin toss, but chose to sing first because she, as she later claimed, did not understand the question – Correct
14. Nick/Clark: No coin toss, Nick sang last. – Correct

We don’t know what will happen this year.

Accuracy: 10/14 – 71%

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X) The Curse

Finally, the Idol Nation’s favourite superstition: The Curse Of Kristy Lee Cook

Kristy Lee Cook finished 7th on the 7th season of Idol. Normally, that’s a ticket to obscurity. But Kristy Lee Cook became a legend.

First, some noticed that Kristy Lee shared a last name with the guy who won her season: David Cook
Second, people thought it was freaky that she shared the first four letters with the guy who won the next season: Kris Allen
Third, many anticipated the winner because he shared his first name with her second: Lee DeWyze
Fourth, the crazier of us got excited when Scott clarified during his audition that his name was Scotty – the last two letters. We were giddy when we found his middle name Cooke – Scotty Cooke McCreery
Fifth, Phillipp Phillips went to to Lee County High School in Leesburg, Lee County, surely a sign!

And then a girl won. Surely, that was the end of things? Or was it? Have we simply not noticed the new pattern?

Last year I posited a new theory: The blessing of Kelly Clarkson:

Season 12: Candace RicKELLe Glover
Season 13: Caleb Perry JohnSON
Season 14: CLARK Beckham

KELL…SON…CLARK…but Clark did not win (the curse would seem to favour Dalton who is at least from the same area of Texas as her.

How about you? Any new theories? Do any of these contestants satisfy them?

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Let’s see how accurate past predictions were:

Season 10: Scotty (4), Lauren (2), Neither (1) – Scotty won
Season 11: Phil (7), Jessica (0), Neither (0) – Phillip won
Season 12: Kree (4), Candice (1), Neither (3) – Candice won
Season 13: Caleb (6), Jena (3), Neither (1) – Caleb won
Season 14: Nick (5) Clark (1) Neither (1) – Nick won

Accuracy: 4/5 – 80%

So, who will win this year?

Trent vs LaPorsha: Trent (5), LaPorsha (0), Neither (4), Unknown (1)
Trent vs Dalton: Trent (4), Dalton (2), Neither (3), Unknown (1)
Dalton vs LaPorsha: Dalton (4), LaPorsha (2), Neither (3), Unknown (1)

If Trent makes the final, he will win. Dalton can only win against LaPorsha.

Aside from the predictors, I do think Trent has this in the bag if he makes the finale (his arc is trending up), but I don’t believe that Dalton can beat LaPorsha.

Sources: Many of these theories are extracted from a variety of Idol related sites, all claiming to originate them. I salute the clever people who developed them whoever they are.

About Kirsten 3060 Articles
Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.