HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Sep 29-Oct 5

With 46.22% of reports in, two country acts are at the top of the chart. Voice Coach Blake Shelton leads the charge with his “Bringing Back the Sunshine” set to sell in the 85-95K range. This would be his second number one album with “Red River Blue” sold 116K back in 2011 (a few weeks after his first triumphant season on The Voice concluded). Still, BBtS is selling less than half of his previous album, “Based on a True Story” back in 2013. It may be that The Voice is losing it’s ability to promote the coaches or that the bloom is just off Blake.

Lady Antebellum, who’s lead female singer was famously rejected by Idol, currently has the second best selling album of the week. They are expected to sell 62-72K for third when the final numbers are in. That’s quite a bit less than the 481K that they opened with for “Need You Now”, but that featured a cross-over hit and they released an album just last year.

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Babs just keeps selling. She’s not leaving the top 3 and nobody is going to rain on her parade. She was actually thought to be challenging for number one earlier in the week. Blake is featured on one of the duets on that album.

Prince, who once appeared on Idol (back in the salad days of Season 5 when the show was a complete monster, Prince was scheduled to appear on the finale, but nobody was quite sure if he would. He arrived, performed, combed his hair and left with hardly a word to anybody) has two albums in the top 10 – “Art of Official Age” at 4th and “Plectrumelectrum” at 9th. Prince released two albums in the same week. He does what he wants.

Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga were number one last week and they slide to 5th this week. The Script (who were brought into the Idolsphere when one of their tracks was used as the debut single for Season 8 Idol winner’s Kris Allen’s first album) are 6th. Blake’s bromance’s (Adam Levine) band’s (Maroon 5) album (V) is at 7th. Swedish Pop star Tove Lo is 8th and Kenny Chesney, last week’s number 2, rounds out the top 10.

The Sing-Off’s Pentatonix is 27th and Idol’s Jennifer Hudson is 38th in their second week. Now 51 features a track featuring Cher Lloyd from X-Factor UK and it is currently at 27th.

CHART DATE: 10/06/2014
LAST UPDATE: 10/06/2014 13:54:08
NOW IN: 46.22%

LW TW artist / album label sales index
— 1 BLAKE SHELTON BRINGING BACK THE SUNSHINE 42,088
— 2 LADY ANTEBELLUM 747 34,748
3 3 BARBRA STREISAND PARTNERS31,178
— 4 PRINCE ART OFFICIAL AGE 28,633
1 5 TONY BENNETT & LADY GAGA CHEEK TO CHEEK 21,349
— 6 THE SCRIPT NO SOUND WITHOUT SILENCE 19,539
9 7 MAROON 5 V 19,283
— 8 TOVE LO QUEEN OF THE CLOUDS 17,031
— 9 PRINCE & 3RDEYEGIRL PLECTRUMELECTRUM . 13,727
2 10 KENNY CHESNEY THE BIG REVIVAL 13,670

5 27 PENTATONIX PTX, VOL. III 4,650

26 37 NOW 51 VARIOUS ARTISTS 3,329
13 38 JENNIFER HUDSON JHUD 3,180

— 50 ERIC CHURCH THE OUTSIDERS 1,904

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About Kirsten 3046 Articles
Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.

26 Comments

  1. Mediabase – Tuesday update:

    AAA:
    24 19 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Unpack Your Heart 219 180 39 0.431
    +4 Spins
    -1 Bullet
    +0.018 AI
    AC:
    7 9 ONE DIRECTION Story Of My Life 1576 1652 -76 10.875
    -27 Spins
    -64 Bullet
    +0.108 AI
    Country:
    9 8 M. LAMBERT & C. UNDERWOOD Somethin’ Bad 5839 5340 499 40.509
    +152 Spins
    +223 Bullet
    +1.414 AI
    14 14 SWON BROTHERS Later On 4375 4231 144 32.014
    +28 Spins
    +46 Bullet
    +0.152 AI
    19 18 SCOTTY MCCREERY Feelin’ It 3205 3083 122 20.024
    -25 Spins
    -145 Bullet
    -0.173 AI
    24 24 DAVID NAIL Kiss You Tonight 2540 2475 65 16.866
    +7 Spins
    -8 Bullet
    +0.121 AI
    38 33 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Something In The Water 1494 1098 396 11.154
    -855 Spins
    -1952 Bullet
    -10.135 AI
    34 36 RAELYNN God Made Girls 1380 1301 79 10.544
    -16 Spins
    -29 Bullet
    -0.044 AI
    HAC:
    25 25 DAUGHTRY Battleships 1163 1061 102 4.204
    +9 Spins
    -3 Bullet
    +0.019 AI
    33 31 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Unpack Your Heart 807 745 62 2.14
    +15 Spins
    +15 Bullet
    +0.048 AI
    37 37 ELLA HENDERSON Ghost 624 578 46 1.673
    -1 Spins
    -13 Bullet
    0 AI
    34 38 G.R.L. Ugly Heart 598 723 -125 2.095
    -16 Spins
    -7 Bullet
    -0.099 AI
    POP:
    45 27 ONE DIRECTION Steal My Girl 2124 756 1368 9.369
    -382 Spins
    -1134 Bullet
    -5.514 AI
    44 46 ELLA HENDERSON Ghost 841 768 73 2.556
    +8 Spins
    +3 Bullet
    -0.031 AI
    Urban AC:
    13 12 JENNIFER HUDSON It’s Your World f/R. Kelly 717 799 -82 5.398
    +1 Spins
    -7 Bullet
    -0.062 AI
    Canada-Country:
    8 14 M. LAMBERT & C. UNDERWOOD Somethin’ Bad 646 767 -121 3.562
    -8 Spins
    +16 Bullet
    -0.054 AI
    73 40 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Something In The Water 218 50 168 1.382
    -8 Spins
    -58 Bullet
    -0.232 AI
    Canada-Hot AC:
    5 5 HEDLEY Heaven In Our Headlights 1025 1044 -19 6.61
    -7 Spins
    +5 Bullet
    -0.086 AI
    Canada-Main AC:
    9 10 HEDLEY Heaven In Our Headlights 267 271 -4 1.728
    -1 Spins
    +3 Bullet
    +0.009 AI
    Canada-Top 40:
    9 10 HEDLEY Heaven In Our Headlights 1238 1279 -41 6.579
    -11 Spins
    -7 Bullet
    -0.035 AI
    55 45 ELLA HENDERSON Ghost 189 90 99 0.799
    +19 Spins
    +21 Bullet
    +0.112 AI
    Christian AC:
    4 4 DANNY GOKEY Hope In Front Of Me 1326 1324 2 6.259
    -8 Spins
    -2 Bullet
    -0.009 AI
    13 11 COLTON DIXON More Of You 685 656 29 3.455
    +3 Spins
    +4 Bullet
    +0.046 AI

  2. 10/7/2014 – Itunes Top 1500 Singles and Albums (from LivePopBars)

    Singles:
    8. Carrie Underwood – Something in the Water
    15. One Direction – Steal My Girl
    100. Miranda Lambert – Somethin’ Bad (with Carrie Underwood) [Duet Version]
    108. The Swon Brothers – Pretty Beautiful
    137. Fifth Harmony – BO$$
    155. Scotty McCreery – Feelin’ It
    157. Melanie Martinez – Carousel
    158. RaeLynn – God Made Girls
    167. Matt McAndrew – A Thousand Years (The Voice Performance)
    179. Ella Henderson – Ghost
    188. G.R.L. – Ugly Heart
    218. One Direction – Story of My Life
    239. David Nail – Kiss You Tonight
    246. Alex & Sierra – Little Do You Know
    270. Melanie Martinez – Dollhouse
    301. The Swon Brothers – Later On
    327. Taylor Phelan – Sweater Weather (The Voice Performance)
    335. Beth Spangler – Best Thing I Never Had (The Voice Performance)
    363. One Direction – You & I
    390. Danny Gokey – Hope in Front of Me
    405. Alex & Sierra – Scarecrow
    415. Anita Antoinette – Turn Your Lights Down Low (The Voice Performance)
    424. Justin Johnes – Let Her Go (The Voice Performance)
    428. One Direction – What Makes You Beautiful
    460. Carrie Underwood – Blown Away
    461. Phillip Phillips – Gone, Gone, Gone
    480. Phillip Phillips – Home
    600. Ryan Sill – Secrets (The Voice Performance)
    615. Daughtry – Battleships
    635. Carrie Underwood – How Great Thou Art
    647. The Swon Brothers – Later On
    651. Kelly Clarkson – Stronger (What Doesn’t Kill You)
    675. Daughtry – Waiting for Superman
    693. David Nail – Whatever She’s Got
    702. Alex & Sierra – Bumper Cars
    732. Michelle Chamuel – Face the Fire
    740. Alex & Sierra – Here We Go
    763. Jonathan Wyndham – Say Something (The Voice Performance)
    799. Carrie Underwood – Before He Cheats
    847. Bea Miller – Young Blood
    925. Carrie Underwood – Jesus, Take the Wheel
    934. Scotty McCreery – See You Tonight
    939. Alex & Sierra – Just Kids
    941. Casey James – Fall Apart
    969. Colton Dixon – More of You
    999. Taylor John Williams – Heartless (The Voice Performance)
    1027. Mandisa – Overcomer
    1039. Pentatonix – La La Latch
    1065. Mayra Alvarez – Human Nature (The Voice Performance)
    1074. Olly Murs – Dance With Me Tonight
    1122. Troy Ritchie – Out of My League (The Voice Performance)
    1129. Phillip Phillips – Raging Fire
    1131. Little Mix – Salute
    1138. Griffin – It’s a Beautiful Day (The Voice Performance)
    1170. James David Carter – Nobody Knows (The Voice Performance)
    1180. Carrie Underwood – See You Again
    1187. Jennifer Hudson – It’s Your World (feat. R. Kelly)
    1242. Fifth Harmony – Me & My Girls
    1250. Chris Jamison – Gravity (The Voice Performance)
    1259. One Direction – Little Things
    1312. One Direction – Midnight Memories
    1314. Fifth Harmony – Miss Movin’ On
    1321. Fifth Harmony – Them Girls Be Like
    1349. Carrie Underwood – Good Girl
    1350. Carrie Underwood – Two Black Cadillacs
    1400. Brittany Butler – The Girl From Ipanema (The Voice Performance)
    1451. Alex & Sierra – Back to You
    1478. Carly Rae Jepsen – Call Me Maybe
    1491. Jessie Pitts – The Story (The Voice Performance)

    Albums:
    3. Alex & Sierra – It’s About Us
    30. One Direction – FOUR (Deluxe Version)
    73. Pentatonix – PTX, Vol. III
    137. One Direction – Midnight Memories
    151. Melanie Martinez – Dollhouse – EP
    169. One Direction – Midnight Memories (Deluxe Edition)
    233. Pentatonix – That’s Christmas To Me
    268. Jennifer Hudson – JHUD
    286. Jacquie Lee – Broken Ones – EP
    329. One Direction – FOUR
    342. The Swon Brothers – The Swon Brothers
    353. Pentatonix – PTX, Vol. II
    357. Carrie Underwood – Blown Away
    410. Pentatonix – PTX, Vol. 1
    473. One Direction – Up All Night (Deluxe Version)
    555. One Direction – Take Me Home (Yearbook Edition)
    558. Avicii – True
    571. Colton Dixon – Anchor
    594. Fifth Harmony – Reflection (Deluxe)
    686. Bea Miller – Young Blood – EP
    724. Phillip Phillips – Behind the Light (Deluxe Version)
    747. Carrie Underwood – Some Hearts
    798. Kelly Clarkson – Breakaway
    859. Daughtry – Baptized (Deluxe Version)
    891. Danny Gokey – Hope in Front of Me
    905. Carrie Underwood – Carnival Ride
    906. Carrie Underwood – Play On
    937. Scotty McCreery – See You Tonight
    946. Phillip Phillips – The World From the Side of the Moon (Deluxe Version)
    978. One Direction – Take Me Home
    985. Pentatonix – PTXmas (Deluxe Edition)
    1000. Fifth Harmony – Better Together – EP
    1004. Little Mix – Salute (Deluxe Edition)
    1193. David Nail – I’m a Fire
    1201. Home Free – Crazy Life
    1318. Home Free – Full of Cheer (Deluxe)

  3. From chart news: US album sales: @carrieunderwood, Blown Away 1,693,000.

  4. Chart News @chartnews · 17h 17 hours ago
    Billboard Country Airplay: #1 (1 week) Roller Coaster, @LukeBryanOnline | #17 Something In The Water, @carrieunderwood (Top Debut).

    Chart News @chartnews · 17h 17 hours ago
    Billboard Pop Songs: #27 Steal My Girl, @onedirection (Top Debut).

  5. David Archuleta on Amazon as of now.

    Amazon Hot New Releases

    Our best-selling new and future releases. Updated hourly.
    Hot New Releases in Christian
    1.
    When The Son of Man (Comes Again)
    Nashville Tribute Band | Format:MP3 Music

  6. That’s a massive drop in spins for Carrie. Is that because the song was getting the hourly spins from the Clear Channel stations and now it isn’t?

  7. Yep. Something In The Water also got hourly spins from Cumulus stations and some CBS stations on its 9/29 debut day, so those all dropped off in this morning’s update.

  8. Reporting in from Billboard Country Update and Country Aircheck:

    There were 2 recurrents at Billboard this week: Dustin Lynch’s Where It’s At and Kenny Chesney’s American Kids out of the t10. At Aircheck/Mediabase, Kenny’s song went recurrent out of the t10 and Eli Young Band’s Dust went recurrent out of the t25. This coming week at Billboard, Cole Swindell’s Hope You Get Lonely Tonight will likely go recurrent out of the t10. At Aircheck/Mediabase, there will be 1 recurrent: Dustin Lynch’s Where It’s At.

    Miranda/Carrie’s Somethin Bad had a pretty good week at Billboard gaining 1.513 million and moving up 2 spots to #8 in its 20th week charting (17th since being sent to radio). SB lost ground to Blake Shelton and Sam Hunt and still trails Chase Rice’s Ready Set Roll by 3.281 million after outgaining it by 825k. I don’t think SB will pass RSR this week. Little Big Town’s Day Drinking had an excellent week and closed to 1.508 million AIs behind after outgaining SB by 2.526 million AIs. But I think SB will hold off DD this week and finish the week up a spot to #7.

    At Aircheck/MB SB had a good week gaining 962 points and holding at #9. SB did get passed by Sam Hunt and Blake Shelton though and I don’t see SB repassing either. SB closed to 173 points behind the Brantley brodown by outgaining it by 38 points, and passed it this morning on the rolling chart. This morning’s MB update for SB was really strong but keep in mind that the gains reflect the fact that SB had a bad Monday last week (-75 spins, -0.521 million AIs) when Something In The Water debuted. Cole Swindell will drop below this week in all likelihood, so look for SB to finish the week at #7 or #8, probably #7.

    The Swon Brothers’s Later On had an OK week gaining 474k AIs and holding at #14 Billboard in its 33rd week charting. There are no likely passers this week, so as long as Cole Swindell’s song goes recurrent, LO will finish up a spot to #13. I expect that LO will have maybe 1 or 2 more bulleted weeks with the album coming out next week. The Swon Brothers have already confirmed (to Bobby Bones) that their next single will be “Pray For You.”

    At Aircheck/MB LO had a meh week gaining 197 points and holding at #14. Maddie & Tae’s Girl In A Country Song closed to 298 points behind after outgaining LO by 696 points so they will pass this week. Look for LO to finish the week at #14.

    Carrie’s Something In The Water scored a #17 debut at Billboard thanks to hourly spins from the big media conglomerate stations on SITW’s 9/29 debut day. This is Carrie’s highest career debut, besting the #20 Billboard debut for “So Small,” which as I mentioned took place before any of this hourly debut crap began. This coming week, SITW will temporarily lose its bullet (which is why I don’t really think there’s much point to this career-high debut, but whatever). SITW actually got a little less total airplay for the week than I was expecting (a bigger debut day but less airplay during the rest of the week), but that could soften this week’s fall. Looking at the MB update this morning, I’m going to guess SITW could finish the week with 13-14 million AIs for a rank of somewhere between #20 and #22 Billboard.

    At Aircheck/MB, SITW tied Carrie’s highest debut position ever by entering the chart at #25 with 6651 points (but again, see above disclaimer about hourly spins). Once again, SITW will drop this week, but because SITW will have a day of airplay factored into the Aircheck/MB chart that it didn’t have in its debut week, the bullet loss will be a little softened. Based on this morning’s update, SITW got 240 MB spins yesterday and 1.984 million AIs. On Sunday, SITW picked up 211 spins and 1.869 million AIs. Based on those 2 days I’m guessing it’ll pick up around 1579 spins and 13.49 million AIs for the week. I think that’ll put SITW in the #30-#31 range to finish the week.

    Scotty’s Feelin It had a decent week at Billboard gaining 576k AIs and moving up a spot to #18 in its 26th week. Tim McGraw’s Shotgun Rider closed to 2.184 million AIs behind after outgaining FI by 3.159 million AIs and is likely to pass this week. Brad Paisley’s Perfect Storm had a quiet week last week (probably in part to due labelmate Carrie’s debut with Something In The Water) and now trails by 2.732 million AIs but could pick up t20 conversions and close this week. Carrie’s SITW will drop below this week. So FI could finish the week anywhere between #16 and #18. I’m guessing it will move up a spot to #17.

    At Aircheck/MB FI had a good week gaining 802 points and moving up a spot to #18. Tim McGraw’s Shotgun Rider closed to 1690 points behind after outgaining FI by 1334 points. I’m guessing FI will stay ahead for now, especially with 1 of the Westwood One stations finally getting on board this week. So look for FI to finish the week up a spot to #17.

    David Nail’s Kiss You Tonight (cowritten by David Cook) had an OK week at Billboard gaining 339k AIs and moving up a spot to #24 in its 30th week charting. Darius Rucker’s lead single Homegrown Honey closed to 932k AIs behind after outgaining KYT by 371k so I think KYT will stay ahead for now. I’m guessing Carrie’s single won’t drop below this week, and I don’t think there will be any other passers this week though Eric Church’s Talladega will continue to close. So look for KYT to fnish the week up a spot to #23.

    At Aircheck/MB KYT had an OK week gaining 399 points and moving up a spot to #24. There’s enough of a gap between KYT and the songs behind it that it’s safe from being passed for now, so look for KYT to finish the week up a spot to #23.

    RaeLynn’s God Made Girls had a very good week this week gaining 1.189 million AIs and moving up a spot to #35 in its 14th week. GMG actually outgained Chris Young’s Lonely Eyes by 525k AIs and now leads it by 720k, plus GMG passed Jake Owen’s What We Ain’t Got. I don’t see any likely passers this week so look for GMG to finish the week up a spot to #34.

    At Aircheck/MB GMG had a solid week gaining 544 points and moving up a spot to #33. Eric Church’s Talladega closed to 34 points behind after outgaining GMG by 1051 points so that’s going to pass this week. Lee Brice’s Drinking Class closed to 71 points behind after outgaining GMG by 164 points so that may pass. Thomas Rhett’s Make Me Wanna closed to 91 points behind after outgaining GMG by 81 points so that could pass. Carrie’s SITW may temporarily drop below. GMG closed to within 386 points behind Justin Moore’s Home Sweet Home cover after outgaining it by 263 points so GMG could pass. So look for GMG to finish the week anywhere between #33 and #35, probably #34.

    Trisha Yearwood’s PrizeFighter featuring Kelly had another strong week this week gaining 1.1 million and moving up to #45 Billboard in its 3rd week. This was facilitated by the Cumulus block (which played and autoadded the single this week), so I’m guessing there’ll be a little bit of a slowdown this week. Still, I don’t think anybody will pass this week and I think PF has a good chance of passing Jerrod Niemann’s struggling Buzz Back Girl which is 236k in front after PF outgained it by 1.166 million. So I think PF will finish the week at #43, but #41 is not out of the question with another week like this.

    At Aircheck/MB PF debuted at #49 with 1347 points, a nice 503 point gain over last week. That gain gives PF a pretty good chance of passing Montgomery Gentry’s Headlights (221 points ahead after PF outgained it by 395 points). Look for PF to finish the week up 2 spots to #47.

    Idol-related ads: Arista Nashville has a full page ad in Aircheck and a 1/3 page ad in Billboard Country Update thanking country radio and congratulating Carrie on the following: 157 combined (Mediabase and Billboard) stations playing including 144 out of the 149 stations on the published Mediabase panel, the “highest total stations on impact day in Country Aircheck history” (144 out of 149 as already mentioned), the #17 Billboard debut (highest for a solo act this year), #25 Aircheck/MB debut (tied for the highest debut this year), and over 124k downloads sold in Week 1. That 124k number would be 2014’s 3rd best debut week for a country single (behind Jason Aldean’s Burnin It Down and Florida Georgia Line’s Dirt, who sold 184k and 183k 1st week, respectively), and tbh, out of all the stats, that’s probably the one that’s key – proving that something that’s about as far from the dudebros as you can get can sell.

    RCA Nashville has a 1/3 page Aircheck ad for Trisha’s PrizeFighter with Kelly hyping 17 new adds, its Aircheck/MB chart debut, & its 8 spot jump at Billboard, and asking for adds.

    Recommended reading: Billboard Country Update has a Q3 country sales roundup. Country album sales were down 23% year to year in Q3 2014, compared to 13% for the whole music market. The t10 country album sellers in Q3 2014 summed to 1.2 million total sold compared to 2.4 million in Q3 2013 so that’s a sign of a crash in sales at the top end. Luke Bryan’s August 2013 release Crash My Party topped Q3 2014 album sales with 170k and the #10 best selling country album for the quarter sold 80k.Country digital download sales were down 10.5% year to year in Q3, compared to around 13% for the whole music market. The top selling downloads for the quarter were the lead singles from Jason Aldean and Florida Georgia Line (970k and 944k respectively). The Miranda/Carrie duet Somethin Bad was the quarter’s 7th best selling download (460k sold during the quarter, 759k total).

    Aircheck leads with an interview of the PD of Cumulus’s newly launched country station in New Orleans (NASH FM 92.3). He has no prior background in country music and talks about how he considers a lot of the basic programming principles to be the same with t40 (“playing the hits with lots of forward momentum and good presentation.”). He’s said he has had to get up to speed with the music for country radio.

  9. Isn’t it due to the rolling effect ? if the song was released last week then yes.
    It’ll start getting normal updates tomorrow.

  10. Hey I’m not sure if you can add it for tomorrow or whatever, but Cece Frey from the X Factor USA released her first single “Dead 2 Me” under the name Cece independently. Last I checked it was in the high 600s

  11. CHART DATE: 10/06/2014
    LAST UPDATE: 10/07/2014 13:21:07
    NOW IN: FINAL

    LW TW artist / album label sales index % change

    — 1 BLAKE SHELTON WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 101,841 — BRINGING BACK THE SUNSHINE
    — 2 LADY ANTEBELLUM CAPITOL NASHVILLE 72,938 — 747
    3 3 BARBRA STREISAND COLUMBIA 71,932 -44% PARTNERS
    1 4 TONY BENNETT & LADY GAGA COLUMBIA/INTERSCOPE 54,909 -58% CHEEK TO CHEEK
    — 5 PRINCE NPG/WARNER BROS. 43,200 — ART OFFICIAL AGE
    2 6 KENNY CHESNEY BLUE CHAIR/COLUMBIA NASH 40,182 -69% THE BIG REVIVAL
    9 7 MAROON 5 222/INTERSCOPE 33,852 +33% V
    — 8 THE SCRIPT COLUMBIA 24,321 — NO SOUND WITHOUT SILENCE
    6 9 CHRIS BROWN RCA 22,362 -37% X
    — 10 PRINCE & 3RDEYEGIRL NPG/WARNER BROS. 21,524 — PLECTRUMELECTRUM
    26 28 NOW 51 NOW 11,272 -9% VARIOUS ARTISTS
    5 33 PENTATONIX RCA 8,936 -81% PTX, VOL. III
    13 38 JENNIFER HUDSON RCA 8,420 -62% JHUD
    15 41 JACKIE EVANCHO SONY MASTERWORKS 7,681 -63% AWAKENING
    — 46 BLAKE SHELTON WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 6,321 — BASED ON A TRUE STORY
    49 49 MIRANDA LAMBERT RCA NASHVILLE 5,710 +1% PLATINUM

  12. That’s a big drop for Pentatonix. I wonder if there’s any stat that shows the average 2nd week % decline for EPs that debut in the Top 10 vs full albums that debut in the Top 10. Would be interesting to see if there is any real difference in 2nd week drops.

  13. It’s a great question, but the population of EPs in the top 10 is still too small for meaningful stats unless they pretty much ALL behave the same way. Here’s BB’s article on this from earlier this summer:

    http://www.billboard.com/biz/articles/news/chart-alert/6214261/billboard-200-chart-moves-shawn-mendes-and-the-great-ep

    It names the 2014 top 10 EPs through early August if you want to hunt those down.

    ETA: And one more in mid-August: http://www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/6221686/vamps-top-10-billboard-200

  14. Monitored Adds:

    Top 40:
    One Direction (Steal My Girl) – 69
    Bea Miller (Young Blood) – 6
    Ella Henderson (Ghost) – 3
    Canada Country:
    Carrie Underwood (Something In The Water) – 20
    Canada HAC:
    One Direction (Steal My Girl) – 2
    Ella Henderson (Ghost) – 1
    Miranda Lambert & Carrie Underwood (Somethin’ Bad) – 1
    Canada Top 40:
    One Direction (Steal My Girl) – 4
    Ella Henderson (Ghost) – 3

  15. I had to use the HDD predictions for the 2nd week #s, so these drops could be off.

    However, here are the other EPs to debut in the Top 10 of the Billboard Top 200 in 2014 (in order of release date)

    Luke Bryan 74K 1st wk 18K 2nd wk -75%
    5SOS 143K 1st wk 25K 2nd wk -82%
    Austin Mahone 46K 1st wk 8K 2nd wk -82%
    Shawn Mendes 48K 1st wk 8K 2nd wk -93%
    The Vamps 20K 1st wk n/a 2nd wk (out of Top 50, so less than 5547 sold)

  16. Luke Bryan’s the only one that’s even close to the normal range on full albums, so I’d say you’ve got a high probability that EPs have a larger second-week drop than albums.

    The one thing I’d ask (making more work for you!) is whether these EPs had lead singles. That is, is the effect from being an EP or from not having radio support?

    (I have no problem with using HDD numbers. I always did. On a tiny sample, there’s more likelihood of a bad estimate gumming up the works instead of coming out in the wash, but we’re not planning a journal article here, just seeing if an hypothesis is worth exploring further.)

  17. Just a suggestion, but why don’t you write this post after the final numbers are released, or at least update it. It makes more sense that way, imo, instead of just leaving the chart half finished every time.

  18. It’s a jumping off point for discussing numbers. We used to just do number reports on Mondays and Wednesdays (radio and sales – we used to get such beautiful leaks of sales numbers), but numbers started to get dragged into headlines threads during an especially contentious period. So, we went with daily threads (there was never a Sunday thread and Saturday was countdowns which was eventually phased out). HDD partial numbers are fun for Tuesday because it is an early, though flawed window. Now that we don’t get early sales leaks, the HDD final numbers are used as the basis to start that thread.
    Believe it or not, some people don’t like numbers (I find that personally shocking) and people who like numbers like them concentrated (makes sense), so that is why we separate them out.

  19. Sorry, I forgot it yesterday. I have added it to my database today (Thursday), but it’s not in the top 1500 anymore.

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