HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Nov 3-9

With 51.61% of reports in, Taylor Swift looks to have her second week at the top of the charts. When you start that big, even a second week drop of 75% yields jaw-dropping sales. She’s predicted to sell in the 350K-400K range. 400K would give her the second best sales week of the year – the first best sales week of the year being her previous week’s sale. If she is down to 350K, she ends up behind Coldplay at 383K. Her sales are so big, she’s challenging for a third week on the charts with around 250K in sales up against Garth Brook with the same estimate and the Foo Fighters just under.

Of course, everybody knew she was going to be a juggernaut so nobody big decided to release this week. Calvin Harris (née Adam Wiles) is a Scottish DJ working the electro vein. He’s had a number of hits and will have the top debut of the week. I think most of his sales must be on iTunes and iTunes has reported since he is already close to his predictions of 30-35K. Currently at 2nd, he’ll likely finish behind Now 52 in 3rd or 4th. Now 52 (featuring a track from US-XF contestants Alex and Sierra) is having a great second week with an estimated drop of 30-35%. These little babies make excellent stocking stuffers. Sam Hunt (Country) is fourth (he had the number one Country song the previous week) while Bette Midler debuts at 5th (with an album featuring covers of great girl bands from the past). Jason Aldean continues to sell in the top 10 and 6th and Blake Shelton’s new album surges back (why did it disappear last week? Did they run out of stock?). The Voice judge’s previous album is at 37th. Florida Georgia Line makes it 4 country acts in the top 10 (would be 5 if Taylor was still pretending to be in that genre) and Sam Smith has a new hit where he whines some more so he is back in the top 10 again.

Pentatonix is shaping up to have the Christmas album of the year. Usually, we get a lot of them released in October/November, but not this year. Their “That’s Christmas to Me” will likely top the Holiday charts again this week because there are no other Holiday albums higher than their 17th. They are from the Sing Off. Other than Blake, representing the judges is Adam Levine at 19th with his band’s “V”.

CHART DATE: 11/10/2014
LAST UPDATE: 11/10/2014 15:20:49
NOW IN: 51.61%

LW TW artist / album label sales index
1 1 TAYLOR SWIFT 1989 191,747
— 2 CALVIN HARRIS MOTION 31,510
2 3 NOW 52 VARIOUS ARTISTS 25,241
3 4 SAM HUNT MONTEVALLO 18,272
— 5 BETTE MIDLER IT’S THE GIRLS 18,178
5 6 JASON ALDEAN OLD BOOTS, NEW DIRT 16,016
42 7 BLAKE SHELTON BRINGING BACK THE SUNSHINE 14,838
6 8 FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE ANYTHING GOES 14,744
13 9 SAM SMITH IN THE LONELY HOUR 12,720

26 17 PENTATONIX THAT’S CHRISTMAS TO ME 6,327

23 19 MAROON 5 V 5,925

— 37 BLAKE SHELTON BASED ON A TRUE STORY 3,090

48 50 PRINCE ART OFFICIAL AGE 2,220

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Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.