HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Nov 24-30

With 50.65% Taylor Swift is back on top this Black Friday. Normally, this week features some major releases. This week? Not so much. We’ve got a Rap album that Eminem took his name off of and something from rapper Rick Ross. Maybe the reason everybody is giving this particular Black Friday a pass is that this is the first week that TEAs and SEAs are going to be included in the BB200 (and having just reviewed a contract, T’s&C’s give me hives). TEA stands for Track Equivalent Albums (digital singles…10 singles equals an album) and SEA stands for Stream Equivalent Albums (on sites like Spotify….1500 streams equals an album). It would suck to outsell Taylor on the albums front and still have her come out on top because of her massive single sales.

Taylor has the top album with already 113K reported. We don’t have a prediction for her sales this week, but ShadyVX way back in third was predicted to sell 140K. You can’t extrapolate HDD numbers because different artist do better at different vendors (and Rap/Urban tends to do better on the second day), but I think it is safe to say that Taylor will stay on top.

Hard working Pentatonix continues to amaze. They are sitting at 2nd not too far from Taylor. As Christmas sales ramp up, could they even top the album sales chart at some point? They are definitely in the lead in the Holiday album of the year game and all signs are up. Their last year Christmas album is 37th. Pentatonix is from the NBC singing show “The Sing Off”.

One Direction from UK XF had the number one album last week and will see “4” slide to fourth this week. I expect further slippage when the BB200 chart comes out because their singles aren’t as strong as some of the others on the chart. Sam Smith, representing the Miss/Mr/Master/Mrs LonelyHearts out there, has two hit singles and is not too far behind on the album chart at 5th.

Rapper Rick Ross has the second highest debut at 6th while Garth Brooks rages against the machine for 7th. The next two albums are fueled by Idina Menzel. Her “Holiday Wishes” is the number two Holiday album at 8th and her megahit “Let it Go” is featured on the “Frozen” soundtrack (welcome back Frozen our old friend!). Nickelback rounds out the top 10 at no fixed address.

Kelly Clarkson’s Christmas album continues to sell well in its second year at 32nd. Now 52 features XF US winners Alex & Sierra while Now 51 features Cher Lloyd from XF UK. They are 11th and 44th respectively. Voice Judges are 14 (Adam’s Maroon V) and 38th (Blake Shelton).

Elvis is in the chart! “It’s Christmas Time” is 50th.

CHART DATE: 12/01/2014
LAST UPDATE: 12/01/2014 16:24:37
NOW IN: 50.65%

LW TW artist / album label sales index
2 1 TAYLOR SWIFT 1989 113,444
3 2 PENTATONIX THAT’S CHRISTMAS TO ME 92,201
— 3 SHADYXV VARIOUS ARTISTS 52,889
1 4 ONE DIRECTION FOUR 40,459
10 5 SAM SMITH IN THE LONELY HOUR 39,274
— 6 RICK ROSS HOOD BILLIONAIRE 27,760
5 7 GARTH BROOKS MAN AGAINST MACHINE 25,059
11 8 IDINA MENZEL HOLIDAY WISHES. 23,058
19 9 FROZEN SOUNDTRACK 22,478
4 10 NICKELBACK NO FIXED ADDRESS 22,310
13 11 NOW 52 VARIOUS ARTISTS 22,155

35 14 MAROON 5 V 20,219

— 32 KELLY CLARKSON WRAPPED IN RED 8,590

24 37 PENTATONIX PTXMAS 6,873
— 38 BLAKE SHELTON BRINGING BACK THE SUNSHINE 6,590

— 44 NOW 51 VARIOUS ARTISTS 5,046

— 50 ELVIS PRESLEY IT’S CHRISTMAS TIME 4,542

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Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.