Danny Gokey: Hits Predicts 45-50K Bow for Debut

Industry rag, Hits Daily Double is predicting a Top 10 bow for Danny Gokey next week, based on one-day sales predictions:

RCA Nashville’s American Idol alum Danny Gokey’s country debut, My Best Days, looks like an impressive 45-50k, the same as IGA’s Lifehouse album, Smoke & Mirrors.

Danny’s debut, My Best Days was released on Tuesday. On iTunes, it is currently #5 on the overall album chart (down from a #3 peak) and #2 on country.

Sidenote: The Lifehouse album, Smoke & Mirrors features songwriting and backing vocals by Chris Daughtry…

Tonight, Danny performs his single “My Best Days (are ahead of me)” on the American Idol Top 20 results show. He hits the stage at the Grand Ole Opry in Nashville on Saturday, March 13.

About mj santilli 33683 Articles
Founder and editor of mjsbigblog.com, home of the awesomest fan community on the net. I love cheesy singing shows of all kinds, whether reality or scripted. I adore American Idol, but also love The Voice, Glee, X Factor and more!

55 Comments

  1. That seems totally doable, and would be a fairly solid opening week of sales. So hope it happens for him.

  2. I have to say I have NEVER purchased a country album…and I have had mixed feelings about Danny, but I bought this album and it is AWESOME. His vocals are impressive…and the songs are well crafted and meaningful. Brings me back to the way I was routing for him at the beginning of AI8. Go Danny! Can’t wait to see him on AI9 tonight!

  3. MJ: I didn’t think Danny was performing at the Opry this week so I checked the Opry schedule. He’s performing next Saturday 3/13. There’s a really good female country act named Emily West performing this Saturday. Her song out right now is called Blue Sky and it’s gorgeous.

  4. I have to say I have NEVER purchased a country album…and I have had mixed feelings about Danny, but I bought this album and it is AWESOME. His vocals are impressive…and the songs are well crafted and meaningful.

    I agree Kimeber!

    His voice sounds like honey and butter mixed; especially on my favorite song “Crazy Not To” – Yikes! Its not completely girl material though; there are some kick a** songs on there too like, “Like Thats a Bad Thing”, “Get Away” and “I Still Believe”.
    It really is a versatile album that showcases his voice. Will people who only like traditional country like it; maybe not because he has no twang. But like the People magazine review said “A good singer is still a good singer”.

    I hope Danny can make this 50k#; I think RCA underestimated demand; many, many reports of stores only stocking less than 10 copies and being out (including my Target and Walmart).

    And MJ; actually Danny peaked at #3 overall albums on iTunes for the first 24 hours =) Lady A did keep him out of #1 on country though.

  5. You are right IndigoBunting…Danny actually did peak at #3 on the overall Itunes chart on release date…I was gonna tell MJ, but I am glad you mentioned that!

  6. Yeah, he was at #3 for the first 24 hours on the overall chart.

    Digital is a small proportion of overall sales, but its still fun to see him up there with Lighthouse, Sade and Lady A =)

    Danny should be proud of himself for all he has persevered through; and putting out an incredible first time album on top of it <3

  7. So Kris opened with 80k right. Glad to hear that Danny didn’t come close to that. Never been a Gokey fan.

  8. As a Danny fan I am pleasantly surprised by the numbers. I knew it was good but I just thought that was my biased opinion. Have 3 theories about Walmart and Target sell outs –

    1. On new music these stores normally discount the CD when released. If they only have a few at the reduced price that could explain why some stores are selling out.

    2. These stores might have overstocked for the other idol 8 performers and they are playing it safe this time.

    3. The audience that would purchase a Danny gokey CD IS the Walmart/Target audience. No disrespect intended – I listen to country music and Target is my favorite store. It is a proven fact that high speed internet is not readily available in all rural communites – such as some very close to mine – so downloading in not an option.

    Again no disrespect to anyone – just an observation.

  9. Very respectable start for Danny. I wonder if HDD factored in the post idol appearance bump he, more than likely, will get.

  10. So Kris opened with 80k right. Glad to hear that Danny didn’t come close to that. Never been a Gokey fan.

    I wouldn’t expect that anyway. Kris is the AI winner and released his album during high volume christmas sales season hot off AI. It would be truly amazing if Danny got anywhere near his sales this time of year.

  11. He should get a huge “Idol bump” tonight. Might he actually have even bigger sales this week than last as a result?

  12. Well it looks like AI dodged a bullet with him finishing 3rd. So much for his “silet majority” of fans who were offline and just dying to support him. If this is all he can do less than a year removed from AI, I can’t imagine him being much of a threat to country music’s A list. Ever.

  13. From Billboard:

    http://www.billboard.biz/bbbiz/content_display/industry/e3ic70c834af0ab2460f90189bc4206a4e0

    As for the rest of the albums aiming for a high debut on next week’s Billboard 200 — “American Idol” fans, rejoice! Last year’s third-place finisher, Danny Gokey, could be the tally’s second-highest new entry, as his “My Best Days” should bow in the top 10. Also looking for a nice start: Jason Derulo’s self-titled debut, the “Almost Alice” companion album/soundtrack to the film “Alice in Wonderland” and Raheem Devaughn’s “The Love and War Masterpeace.”

  14. So Kris opened with 80k right. Glad to hear that Danny didn’t come close to that. Never been a Gokey fan.

    I wouldn’t expect that anyway. Kris is the AI winner and released his album during high volume christmas sales season hot off AI. It would be truly amazing if Danny got anywhere near his sales this time of year.

    Agreed on all of that, so yeah, if Danny does do 45-50, that’s a really respectable number for a third place finisher of AI, plus in a pretty slow sales month.

  15. Great numbers for Danny! He hasn’t even hit the bigtime promo yet, sounds like it’s just starting to kick in high gear.

    I agree with you Indigobunting on Crazy Not To being one of the best songs on Danny’s album. I could see this song doing very well for him.

    So looking forward to seeing Danny tonight on Idol.

  16. Very respectable start for Danny. I wonder if HDD factored in the post idol appearance bump he, more than likely, will get.

    I’m thinking along the lines of no. It will be interesting to see what kind of bump he will get. I wish him the best of luck.

  17. Dodging a bullett? If Danny does sell near 50K that’s pretty impressive. That’s without national promotion of any kind and months after the other S8 idols who got the benefit of Xmas buying.
    Of course, the big test is will the album continue to sell but debuting in the Top 10 is a decent start.

  18. Of course, the big test is will the album continue to sell but debuting in the Top 10 is a decent start.

    It won’t, not without a hit single. His album is doing the typical decent first week for a former AIer. Everything else is going to depend on radio embracing him a heck of a lot more than they have so far.

  19. I actually expected better, and I still do given his appearance tonight. Let’s see. (And, no, I’m not a fan, and no, I’ve no basis other than a hunch. :-))

  20. Well it looks like AI dodged a bullet with him finishing 3rd. So much for his “silet majority” of fans who were offline and just dying to support him. If this is all he can do less than a year removed from AI, I can’t imagine him being much of a threat to country music’s A list. Ever.

    Niall, do you think that the HDD people are just confused when they called his sales projection impressive? According to info which I believe Steph posted on here somewhere, Danny’s sales projection would put him at over 3X the most successful 1st week debut from a newcomer this year. So it looks good for him in the short term, and let’s not forget that his label appears to be grooming him for long term growth in the business, even someone with only tangential knowledge of what’s been happening for him would be able to see that he is not being treated as a flash in the pan. I don’t think there’s any bullet dodging going on. Maybe some champagne cork dodging will be going on pretty soon. He’s in this for the long run and off to a great start.

  21. From Twitter

    @idolsnow: DANNY GOKEY rehearsing on the Idol stage at this moment for tonight's live performance of his new single.

    I hope Danny does well tonight and gets a nice boost in sales from his performance. :)

  22. I don’t think MBD will be strong enough on radio to support the album. But there are other songs that could be single #2 that could sustain sales. Danny will also be opening for Suglarland on a big tour and then could help keep the album selling (at least modestly) for awhile.

  23. Danny has said that the second single will be “I Will Not Say Goodbye”.

  24. u know the music industry is dead when 45-50K is considered good lol

  25. Danny will get alot of life out of this first album. There are several songs that are not genre bound to country.

    I think RCA is looking for longevity with Danny and not an initial flash-in-the-pan splashy beginning that sputters out. Hence, the reason for picking My Best Days as the first single. I don’t think this one is Danny’s best showcase but it can appeal to a broad audience.

  26. So Kris opened with 80k right. Glad to hear that Danny didn’t come close to that. Never been a Gokey fan.

    There is no way anyone expected 80K for Gokey. His album comes months after the others, and his promo machine has nowhere near the vigor of Kris’ or Adam’s. By any measure, 50K would be a phenomenal debut coming from a 3rd place finisher doing “country” from a “soul perspective.” And remember, many, many folks thought he’d never get an album deal at all.

  27. To begin with, Danny did not win American Idol and was not in the finals. 45 – 50K is a very respectable amount for the first week, especially when a lot of his promotion so far as been more grass root. I am way more interested in how well Danny does in the long run. BTW, that amount is actually better than Allison, yet when she sold 30k, people were applauding her. When in fact, she was never even close to making the Top 10, whereas Danny is predicted by Billboard to debut in the Top 10.

  28. So Kris opened with 80k right. Glad to hear that Danny didn’t come close to that. Never been a Gokey fan.

    And Kris continues to have the poorest selling album of all the winners, in spite of all the promotion, media, attention the winner gets. His album has now been in release going on 4 mos. And there are still no tour plans announced for Kris.

  29. There is no way anyone expected 80K for Gokey.

    Um, I did, and I do. I’m probably being unrealistic, but it’s possible I’m not. :-) I’m expecting a substantial AI boost. Whether it will simply make up for the typical HDD overestimate from one day sales for Idols, or whether viewers will rush out in the three remaining days of his first week to get the CD, remain unknown.

    It’s too bad his performance wasn’t earlier in the week for maximum benefit. But, I’m really proud of AI for doing so well by him, having him appear during his release week. (Yes, I know their own self-interest drives the decision, but still…) NGL though, my good feeling from his appearance has been slightly diminished by the announcement that they’re hosting Scott for two songs next week.

  30. Danny could have a slow start and continue with momentum after tonight’s show appearance.

  31. I was interested to see how Danny’s CD will do by the levels for other country artists with albums coming out now. He seems to be faring pretty well from that perspective.

    Three newbies on their first albums are Easton Corbin, Sarah Buxton and Josh Thompson, each of whom have had one single (or more in Sarah’s case) at country radio going back ~half a year or more. Another release this week is Blake Shelton’s EP.

    If they are projecting 45-50k for Danny, Blake (who’s had quite a few previous albums plus now the EP, so well-established country star) is projected at 60K+. Easton (with a top ~5 single on radio now) is apparently coming in below or around 40k, and the other two’s actual reported sales weren’t even 15k.

    from Billboard site:

    The highest debut on the Billboard 200 next week will likely come from country singer Blake Shelton, as industry observers suggest his new “Hillbilly Bone” may sell in the range of 60,000 to 75,000 by week’s end on Sunday, March 7. That figure will probably place the album somewhere in the top five of next week’s chart, depending on how the rest of the week shakes out.
    Shelton’s album is an experimental release of sorts, containing just six songs and offered for a very attractive low price. Wal-Mart, Target and Amazon are currently selling the album for a sale price of $4.99, while Best Buy has it for $6.99. Surprisingly, both the iTunes and Amazon MP3 stores are selling it for a higher price than their physical competitors, as the etailers have it listed for $5.99.

    from Music Row industry site:

    Way Out Here, the debut album from Columbia Nashville newcomer Josh Thompson, entered the country album sales chart this week with sales in excess of 15,000 units. The album hit the No. 9 spot on Billboard’s Top Country Albums chart and rose to No. 28 on the Top 200 chart. Way Out Here is the highest debut from a new country act this year, and the highest debut from a new solo male since Justin Moore back in August 2009.

    Meanwhile, over at Lyric Street, Sarah Buxton’s eponymous debut album bowed at #12 on Nielsen Soundscan’s Country Top 75 chart this week. With first-week sales reaching 8,000 units, Sarah Buxton is the best selling debut from a female country artist since 2008.

  32. Why are Danny’s sales being compared to sales of new country artists? Based on how things are usually viewed in the idol bubble, shouldn’t his sales be put into perspective, since we have to factor in the element of performing in front of over twenty million people once a week for over two months? If we are going to continuously bring up Kris sales in relation to previous AI winners, which is a tired comparison that doesn’t make a lot of sense, shouldn’t Danny’s sales also be looked at in a similar way? Of course, I don’t think this makes any sense, even though Danny’s sales, just like other AI alums, are inflated because of their connection to the show.

  33. I think there are several ways to look at how any of these people are doing. How does Kris compare to other AI winners? How does Adam compare to other pop/dance new artists? Where are they coming in based on the charts now, based on this time in the market?

    I’m not ignoring the other ways of looking at it, but Danny is a new country artist who has been working very hard with his label to make his entry into that environment and play by its rules. He was not recognized as a country artist while on AI (though he covered 3-4 country songs), and his label has been marketing him so far nearly exclusively on the country scene with no national promo or exposure since the AI finale last May. So how he is doing on the country charts compared to other country acts with CDs coming out, is an interesting question to me — in addition to other potential comparisons.

  34. I was never even a luke-warm fan of Danny …. but I was hoping he would do well for his sake. Tonight he reminded me of why he turned me off. I can listen to him, but I cannot watch him at all. It’s a complete turn-off for me.

  35. I’m sure Danny would be selling more CD’s if it were available in the stores. Many stores have sold out and I understand some Walmart’s didn’t get any.

  36. Danny’s performance tonight should definitely help sales. Who knows maybe he won’t experience the huge drop in sales after the first week that most idol have experienced.

  37. Um, I did, and I do. I’m probably being unrealistic, but it’s possible I’m not. I’m expecting a substantial AI boost. Whether it will simply make up for the typical HDD overestimate from one day sales for Idols, or whether viewers will rush out in the three remaining days of his first week to get the CD, remain unknown.

    I meant for week one, lol. :)I agree with you that he’ll exceed 80K in the end. Barring some unforseen disaster, that is.

    How does Kris compare to other AI winners?

    Not very well.

    If we are going to continuously bring up Kris sales in relation to previous AI winners, which is a tired comparison that doesn’t make a lot of sense, shouldn’t Danny’s sales also be looked at in a similar way?

    Danny’s sales should be compared with those of previous 3rd place finishers.

  38. Am I the only one who feel that Danny needs an image make-over? I have never seen a country star with glasses… Does it really affect his credibility among country fans? Just askin’….

  39. Am I the only one who feel that Danny needs an image make-over? I have never seen a country star with glasses… Does it really affect his credibility among country fans? Just askin’….

    I love that Danny has stayed true to himself. He really hasn’t strayed much, if at all from his fashion choices since his audition. He will never wear a cowboy hat, lol. Its not who he is; and country music fans are not stereotypical “hicks” who only appreciate jeans, plaid shirts and the aforementioned cowboy hats.

    Danny Gokey is actually considered a sex symbol by most of his fans. Hard for non fans to see this sometimes; but fans love his very natural boy next door good looks (and great physique <3). Although I have to say tonights glasses were not my favorite, and I wish he would take the glasses off on occasion; he has beautiful eyes.

  40. Danny’s sales should be compared with those of previous 3rd place finishers.

    No. Danny’s sales should be compared with those of previous 3rd place finishers whose debut albums were for a label under the 19R/Sony BMG umbrella. (None.) Or for another major? (also none–pretty sure that Curb is not a major.)

  41. Am I the only one who feel that Danny needs an image make-over?

    I think he looks good and his glasses are fine. But Danny has to talk less. He sings great, he looks great, but he is not a smart man. He yammers on something fierce, and he’s not articulate or direct about his point. Oh, and he thinks he knows everything too. Ssshh Danny. Just sing.

  42. If the reports on this blog are accurate 45 – 50K estimated sales for the first week is an over estimation. That is if the reports of CDs not being available in stores are correct. Danny’s album is high on iTunes but that really doesn’t mean much. Look at Kris last week, he was top 8 or higher all week on iTunes but only sold 7K total.

  43. Well, there are a lot of stores, lol. So I guess we’ll see. Not sure how those HDD estimates work but I’m figuring they probably won’t be crazily lower than what they are saying.

    There have been thousands of people at Danny’s official website tonight (where his album can be bought), plus his position moved up on both iTunes and amazon. That all can’t be hurting him. I can see comparing Danny to other previous AI performers who were in the top 3 range or lower and got signed to a bona fide label. But like Kris and Adam, I think you have to account for the differences in the industry and market patterns for 2009/2010 compared to the various earlier cases.

    By most measures I can see, Danny’s results look to be pretty respectable which doesn’t surprise me as he’s a very strong singer and pretty personable performer who does have his fans.

  44. He sings great, he looks great, but he is not a smart man.

    Well gosh, according to standardized tests, I’m sure there are a lot of people on here who are on the far right end of the bell curve. So, why is he flying around in a corporate jet, and we’re not? ;) I don’t think that you negotiate the exact deal you want, navigate the waters in new territory as successfully as he has, and by the way launch a viable non-profit organization with prestigious supporters while you’re at it if you’re a dummy. He is a smart, focused and charismatic person. He’s not always a smoothie in how he presents himself (although he is getting much, much better at that). But he is very much like very successful entrepreneurial people I have known. He seems to be getting the job done just fine so far.

  45. If we are going to continuously bring up Kris sales in relation to previous AI winners, which is a tired comparison that doesn’t make a lot of sense, shouldn’t Danny’s sales also be looked at in a similar way?

    The winner will always be compared to other winners. It was actually Billboard that initially reported the story of Kris’ weak sales. The winner usually gets more promotion, but they are expected to perform at a higher level. And all winners are guaranteed a record contract with a major label.

    Yet Billboard gave Danny this write-up: “American Idol” fans, rejoice! Last year’s third-place finisher, Danny Gokey, could be the tally’s second-highest new entry, as his “My Best Days” should bow in the top 10.

  46. Grrrr… I hate hearing the unfounded Danny criticisms like “he is not a smart man.”

  47. The comparison for the majority of Idols last season should not even matter because they are in different genres.

    Danny’s sales are in the Country music category and he is doing quite well.

    It is not the same to compare Danny’s sales in Country with previous 3rd place winners like Syesha, since Syesha was a R/B singer.

  48. I meant for week one, lol.

    So did I!

    I thought Danny did very well tonight, hand gestures and clinical mania aside. ;-) And, AI flashed his album cover on the big screen, while Ryan let him go on and on about, you know, everything including touring and his website. So, I stick by my belief that his sales will top HDD predictions, perhaps by a substantial number.

    Of course, I could be (and probably am) wrong, but I gotta feeling…

  49. Grrrr… I hate hearing the unfounded Danny criticisms like “he is not a smart man.”

    I know, but actually it doesn’t even make my heart beat faster anymore. I understand where it comes from, and I am actually indifferent to it at this point. I would say it is tedious, rather than upsetting. I’m not here for them anyway, I’m here for the people who are too shy to speak up but come here for news about Danny and see all this stuff. I want them to have a voice, and since I really don’t care much what most other people think I suppose I am a good person for the job, along with my beloved Danny fan compadres. ;)

  50. Danny doesn’t seem to be bothered by all the accusations and hate. He looks to be real happy, having his music occupying top charting positions, doing his thing, and traveling around in his private jet to his nation tour. Looks like he is going to have no trouble selling his CD.

  51. 1:57 PM and Danny is still Number 1 in the overall and country charts on iTunes.

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