Monday Morning Mediabase Update – Up Until Midnight 11/01/09

Carrie Underwood is currently sitting at 3 on the Country chart with the two songs in front of her losings spins. Will she get yet another number 1 song next week, or will Lady Antebellum nip by her? Meanwhile, Kellie Pickler now has herself another Top 30 Country song. Kelly Clarkson has a single that’s currently charting Top 10 in 2 formats and Top 20 in three formats. Kris Allen moves in to the top 30 of HAC and edges closer to the Top 40 on Pop. Cook’s “Come Back To Me” has gone re-current.

Watch for Adam’s FYE going for adds this week!

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Watch Cooper, Osnes & Munoz Sing Irving Berlin!

Here are your Monday Morning Mediabase Updates for airplay as of midnight of 11/01/09 after the jump.

Note: AllAccess has been slow lately on updating the charts so this is a mix of charts. The data for the Top 40 are up until midnight Sunday. Rankings for top 41-50 and CAC are from midnight Saturday.

Brooke White:
“Radio Radio”: 49 AC (48)

Carrie Underwood:
“Cowboy Casanova” : ^3 Country (5)

Daughtry:
“No Surprise”: 5 HAC (4), ^9 AC (9)

Elliott Yamin:
“Can’t Keep on Loving…”: 43 AC (43)

Jordin Sparks:
“Battlefield”: ^17 AC (20), 35 HAC (24)
“S.O.S. (Let the Music…)”: ^35 Pop (41)

Katharine McPhee:
“Had it All” : ^32 AC (39)

Kellie Pickler:
“Didn’t You Know How…”: ^30 Country (32)

Kelly Clarkson:
“Already Gone”: ^4 HAC (6), ^9 Pop (10), ^20 AC (21)

Kris Allen:
“Live Like We Are Dying”: ^26 HAC (32), ^43 Pop (49)

Mandisa:
“He is With You”: ^21 CAC (21)

Phil Stacey:
“You’re Not Shaken”: 18 CAC (15)

Ruben Studdard:
“Don’t Make ‘Em Like…”: ^25 UAC (26)

Note: Numbers indicate position on the chart while numbers in brackets indicate the position on the chart the previous

Upcoming Add Dates:
Pop:
Nov 3: Adam Lambert: “For Your Entertainment”
Nov 10: Jason Castro: “Let’s Just Fall in Love”
Nov 10: Daughtry: “Life After You”

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Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.

320 Comments

  1. Anticipating the Questions:

    Adam’s “Time for Miracle’s” has not been listed for adds and got 8 spins last week (HAC:1, Pop:6, AAA:1)

    Adam’s “For Your Entertainment” goes for adds this week and received 48 spins last week (HAC:25, Pop:23)

    Allison’s “Friday, I’ll Be Over You” went for adds last week. It received 46 spins last week (HAC:4, Pop:42)).

    Kris’s “Live Like We’re Dying” went for adds three weeks ago and received 1653 spins last week (HAC:662, Pop:969, Rhy:22).

    Jason’s “Let’s Just Fall in Love Again” went for adds for weeks ago. It had 232 spins last week (HAC:3, Pop:228, Rhy:1)). They are re-sending it for adds on November 10th.

    Daughtry’s ‘Life After You’  goes for adds on November 10th on Pop and had 26 spins on HAC last week.

  2. Will she get yet another number 1 song next week, or will Lady Antebellum nip by her?

    Exactly my thought. I hope she’ll get her 11th number 1 next week though

  3. The spins for Kris is that Good, Bad or in between. Am glad his doing good on HAC and doing better on pop charts.

  4. I don’t know what’s going on with Allison. She has virtually no promo. What are they waiting for with her single?

    SOS is Jordin’s 5th song in a row to crack the Top 40. She’s starting to challenge Kelly in that area. Kris is doing very well on HAC and meh on Pop so far. If he was selling more on iTunes, I think LLWD would look like more of a hit. His sales number there are still very meh.

  5. Jason’s ‘Let’s Just Fall in Love Again’  went for adds for weeks ago. It had 232 spins last week (HAC:3, Pop:228, Rhy:1)). They are re-sending it for adds on November 10th.

    Could you please expound on what it means to “re-send” for adds?

  6. Could you please expound on what it means to ‘re-send’  for adds?

    It was sent for adds previously and they didn’t get enough traction so they have another add date for the song. It just means they’ll try again. They will likely put more effort into pushing it this time (and Jason has been doing radio interviews).

  7. If he was selling more on iTunes, I think LLWD would look like more of a hit. His sales number there are still very meh.

    Where is he on itunes? I thought the snippets from the album last week increased his sales.

  8. Could you please expound on what it means to ‘re-send’  for adds?

    I think it basically means just to promote it a second time — announce it, beg, offer things, send your performer around, etc.

    Put money into it again in an attempt to call it to stations’ attention and get it on their lists — while hoping that other people aren’t doing *more* of that this particular week for other songs.

  9. I don’t know what’s going on with Allison. She has virtually no promo. Usually Jive is really good at getting radio play. What are they waiting for with her single?

    My first thought – could it have anything to do with also having Kris on the label? As in, he is top priority for promo given that he is the winner, etc.? My first thought with Jive’s Allison roll out when we discussed it last week is that Nov is a HUGE month for new music, and each label only has so much to spend on it, so if more is going to Kris’s promo right now, maybe Jive has decided to roll her’s out on a different schedule, when they have more money to work with, and maybe when they don’t have to spend as much to give her a good push. I have no idea though.

  10. Dlvis Duran (Morning show DJ Elvis Duran at Z100) will be playing TYE this morning according to his tweet:

    Quote:
    @elvisduran: Playing @adamlambert ‘s For Your Entertainment this morning!

    Stations playing FYE increased dramatically today, according to yes.com.

  11. I think FYE is getting the big radio push today which makes sense because the official adds day is tomorrow and that’s when it goes to iTunes. Realize that most people have no idea that Adam has a new single until they hear it on the radio. Ideally, they hear it on the radio, see the big ad on iTunes (I’m sure they’ll be one) and give it a good opening week of sales.

  12. Where is he on itunes? I thought the snippets from the album last week increased his sales.

    Snapshot of the Idols currently on the main iTunes chart (Top 300):

    24: Kelly Clarkson: Already Gone
    27: Carrie Underwood: Cowboy Casanova
    60: Carrie Underwood: Undo It
    73: Jordin Sparks: Battlefield
    125: Kris Allen: Live Like We’re Dying
    135: Adam Lambert: Time for Miracles
    152: Daughtry: No Surprise
    237: Kellie Pickler: Best Days of Your Life
    252: Jordin Sparks: S.0.S. (Let the Music Play)

  13. My first thought ‘“ could it have anything to do with also having Kris on the label? As in, he is top priority for promo given that he is the winner, etc.?

    Off the top of my head, they also have Britney and Jordin on that label and they are both pushing out new songs at this time. Brit’s new song is sitting at number 8 on pop while Jordin’s song is at 35 already.

    There are always multiple artists from a major label with active songs at the same time. They know how to juggle it.

  14. Kris’s weekly sales at least seem to be stabilizing. His single is growing nicely on HAC and is on the right track on CHR. But it still takes time to build-up the kind of audience required to consistently drive sales. Keep in mind that right now the weekly audience for LLWD across all formats (7.517 million) is still less than even the Magic Rainbow is puling in recurrency (8.765 million). There’s no doubt the single has a bit of a hole to dig itself out of sales wise, but it’s shaping up to be a decent radio hit and I think the sales will follow once his audience reaches a certain tipping point. But I still think that tipping point may not be until he doubles or triples his current weekly AI. Let’s see where things stand as the album promo kicks in.

  15. Since we have this thread now, copying over my post from the Rivers Cuomo topic:

    I am thrilled to report that WPLJ played FYE this morning during my commute ‘“ around 7:25AM I guess. Afterward, Scott Shannon said ‘That was the first 2ingle from Adam Lambert from his first album. For Your Entertainment by Adam Lambert. What do you think?’  Todd Pettingill responded ‘That was GOOD,’  Joe Nolan said ‘I LIKE that!’  Patty Steele gave a huge swooning sigh.

    Notice no mention of the words American Idol during that exchange. The morning crew does not usually hesitate to ridicule something, in the past adding things like ‘Yeah, well good luck to them.’  Nothing like that was said this morning.

    Also, Elvis Duran (Z100-NY morning DJ, syndicated in other markets) played FYE at 8:38 AM this morning.

  16. If he was selling more on iTunes, I think LLWD would look like more of a hit. His sales number there are still very meh.

    alaadam Where is he on itunes? I thought the snippets from the album last week increased his sales.

    LLWD spin numbers do not look that good. A hit would be getting at least 5,000 a week after 3 weeks. For camparison, Kelly’s AG has been 10,000+, now falling.

    Here are the Mediabase Airplay Charts – Top 40
    Last Week This Week Artist Song Spins

    3 1 LADY GAGA Paparazzi 10454

    1 2 MILEY CYRUS Party In The USA 10413

    2 3 JAY SEAN Down f/Lil Wayne 10407

    4 4 JASON DERULO Whatcha Say 9229

    5 5 BEYONCE Sweet Dreams 8703

    6 6 KINGS OF LEON Use Somebody 6718

    7 7 TAYLOR SWIFT You Belong With Me 6421

    10 8 KELLY CLARKSON Already Gone 6201

    12 9 BRITNEY SPEARS 3 6101

    9 10 JAY-Z/RIHANNA/KANYE WEST Run This Town 5632

    LLWD – Kris Allen
    Only on the Top 30 on the Hot AC Airplay Chart
    32 26 KRIS ALLEN Live Like We’re Dying 629

    iTunes rank for LLWD was #122 at midnight 11/2/09. Right now at #125. So the release of the “long snippets” didn’t move it.

  17. ladymadonna: Kris’s weekly sales at least seem to be stabilizing. His single is growing nicely on HAC and is on the right track on CHR. But it still takes time to build-up the kind of audience required to consistently drive sales. Keep in mind that right now the weekly audience for LLWD across all formats (7.517 million) is still less than even the Magic Rainbow is puling in recurrency (8.765 million). There’s no doubt the single has a bit of a hole to dig itself out of sales wise, but it’s shaping up to be a decent radio hit and I think the sales will follow once his audience reaches a certain tipping point. But I still think that tipping point may not be until he doubles or triples his current weekly AI. Let’s see where things stand as the album promo kicks in.

    There is no way to compare LLWD to Majic Rainbow — LLWD doesn’t have any TV exposure and entered/peaked on the BBillboard chart at #89. In the U.S. the song debuted on the Billboard Hot 100 at number three with 236,000 copies sold in its first week of release. TOML is now the best-selling debut single for an American Idol since Season 2. It had enomous TV exposure (Idol Final + Olympics) and a lot of online play. TOML was a hit before the radio airplay.

    The challenge for Jive is how to market the album with a lead single that has little traction and an album releasing in 2 weeks.

  18. I’m assuming 19/RCA aren’t going to push TFM now that Adam has FYE out? I see TFM is #135 on iTunes. It really dropped quickly after reaching the Top 10, and I haven’t heard or seen any promotion about it since it was initially released.

  19. LOL that positive news gets spun into negative news. How exactly does moving up the charts in 3 formats = little traction? LMAO.

  20. As for LLWD, no it’s not a megahit, but it’s probably going to end up as a Top 20 HAC and Top 40 Pop song — so it can’t really be described as a flop, either. And because the reviews and listener feedback have been generally positive, I would guess that would mean stations would be more willing to play Kris’ next single whenever it is released.

  21. Off the top of my head, they also have Britney and Jordin on that label and they are both pushing out new songs at this time. Brit’s new song is sitting at number 8 on pop while Jordin’s song is at 35 already.

    There are always multiple artists from a major label with active songs at the same time. They know how to juggle it.

    My take on it is, not even taking Kris into consideration, all of these labels have to juggle their acts and how they spend money on them, and Allison may just have a different roll out plan from say, Britney, Jordin, or Kris. Hence, maybe some strategy to make a bigger push later (after Thanksgiving perhaps), when the playing field is a little less cluttered.

  22. As for LLWD, no it’s not a megahit, but it’s probably going to end up as a Top 20 HAC and Top 40 Pop song ‘” so it can’t really be described as a flop, either. And because the reviews and listener feedback have been generally positive, I would guess that would mean stations would be more willing to play Kris’ next single whenever it is released.

    Ok, just out of curiosity (cuz I know a lot of factors play into this) – but with LLWD now getting a lot more promo (Kris interviews, etc.), and it getting a lot of positive feedback, from DJs, reviewers, listeners, etc. why hasn’t it really taken off more?

  23. I’m also thinking that more stations will add Allison’s single now that it’s finally going to be available on iTunes, etc. this week. She has said she’s going to be doing more promotion this month, so we’ll see what “more promotion” ends up being.

  24. Q3 Thanks for putting the spins into perspective. Compared to others, i agree it doesn’t look as good as I first thought. Oh well. I am amazed that TFM is only 10 spots behind LLWD considering TFM hasn’t gotten any airplay at all. Another perspective.

  25. Since I see Kris very much like Jordin and where she was in terms of winners leading up to their album release, does anyone remember where Tattoo was on the pop charts when her album dropped compared to LLWD? I know things can take a while to really get moving but I really think Kris is going to need this song to become a big hit to help with album sales. At this point I’m not sure what to expect with his numbers but I’m thinking he’s going to start off slow. I’ll be curious to see how he does on iTunes with the pre-order tomorrow.

  26. LLWD across all formats (7.517 million) is still less than even the Magic Rainbow is puling in recurrency (8.765 million)

    ToML has been on radio since May 2008. It’s over a year old, and it’s recurrent. So the fact that LLWD is still spinning “less” than ToML at this stage in Kris’s album lifecycle is interesting. It’s definitely not as ear-wormy as Adam’s FYE. WPLJ has added it already to its MediaBase request form. I’m sure FYE will get heavy play on Top 40.

    Disclaimer: I am not suggesting that Kris is doomed or any such OTT “sky is falling” nonsense.

  27. Haven’t done David Cook’s album sales for a couple of weeks (because there were only estimates available to the nearest thousand which doesn’t tell us much when sales are down to a thousand or two), but this is his YTD sales from last week

    Week 43
    50 – 436,200 – DAVID COOK – David Cook

    Add to 811,667 from 2008, giving a total of 1,247,867. That’s 5,400 in three weeks, so sales are down to less than 2K a week. Idol Chatter rounded up the total sales number to the nearest 10K at 1.25 million.

  28. Has Kris really done a lot of promotion for LLWD? It doesn’t seem as if he has. He has been on some radio station’s interviews (not in Boston), but have there been any TV appearances? I think Adam *has* gotten traction from TfM (I mean, it got to #8 on iTunes and very few ppl have seen the mv, which, BTW, does NOT play on iPods, just on computers). Adam has been in Details, InStyle, and on Oprah, not to mention Ryan’s program (and now Elvis’s!) and lots of stations have clearly been querying their listeners and getting mostly positive feedback, so I think it already has a chance to take off. I agree that LLWD seems to be doing pretty well, but not blockbusters. Maybe after the Jingle Balls?

    Geez, I hope Allison gets better promo…but honestly, I think this single is pretty weak, and maybe they will push a stronger one (that sounds more like her, without the Oh, oh, oh; IMO, of course).

  29. There is no way to compare LLWD to Majic Rainbow

    Thanks for the stats but believe me, I know what an outlier TOML is. I used the example only to give a little bit of perspective on audience size. I think some folks look at weekly spincreases and chart positions and assume that sales are going to correlate directly, but it doesn’t necessarily work that way. It takes time to reach a level of audience saturation that will consistently drive sales. Despite Kris’s steadily increasing radio presence, his audience is still less than that of a song released a year and half ago. LLWD has really only just gotten started and there is still a lot of room for growth.

  30. BTW, I still don’t know how to use yes.com. Could you please explain, Q3/Kirsten? Thanks.

  31. Q3,

    Can you tell us how long all these songs above LLWD have been on the chart? And how many spins they were getting after 3 weeks like Kris? It will at least help us assess the situation properly.

  32. Where is he on itunes? I thought the snippets from the album last week increased his sales.

    How will we know whether sales increased or not until the numbers come out on Wednesday? The rankings don’t tell us how much anyone sold. For example, the rankings have been all over the place this week with so many Taylor Swift songs charting, as well as a lot of Halloween songs making the list, but just because those songs pushed other songs further down the rankings, that doesn’t mean that the other songs sold less than they normally do, or that they normally would have if Taylor’s or the Halloween songs were not a factor.

    Also keep in mind that while a lot of these Halloween songs were in front of both Kris and Adam’s singles as late as yesterday afternoon, suddenly a lot of them dropped off the chart, so what does this mean? Does it mean that the songs sold more than either TFM or LLWD for the week, for a day, for a few hours? None of it means anything, the only thing that matters is the raw numbers, and at this point, LLWD stable sales are more than a good sign. As are the increased spins that the song is getting.

  33. Mary102

    There’s probably not an easy answer for that. Most of the promotion Kris has done for LLWD has been local radio interviews rather than national stuff. And at least going off the mediabase charts, it doesn’t look like stations in a lot of the bigger markets have added LLWD. I know none of the L.A. stations play it — (unless Ryan’s been playing it on his show?).

    Here are the Top 20 markets that have station(s) that have officially added LLWD:

    NYC (1)
    Chicago (3)
    Houston (6)
    Atlanta (7)
    Boston (10)
    Detroit (11)

    So if LLWD is only been added in 6 of the Top 20 markets, that limits the AI (audience impression). The question is why the single hasn’t been added in the other big markets.

    Maybe the release of the music video on this coming Friday will help. IDK

  34. Kris will be getting national exposure in the next few weeks. So far most of his promo has been regionally focused– so it doesn’t suprise me that the single isn’t selling like crazy. Also, aren’t all of these comparisons to Jordin, Cook, Adam futile since we have no idea how many singles Kris sold via the itunes pass?

  35. On the LLWD worry: Yeah, it doesn’t look brilliant. But sometimes songs do take a while to become hits. Elliott’s Wait for You, which eventually became a top 5 song on the pop 100, in pop 100 airplay, and on HAC, (and also sold platinum) took many weeks to attain those positions. And when it did, it held onto them for a while. Ultimately, a lot of people really liked the song and it slowly slowly slowly gained support.

    Of course, the situations aren’t entirely analogous. Elliott is an indie artist and was coming from relative obscurity, a full year out from his Idol days and only a third-placer at that.

    Nevertheless, all is not entirely lost when a song starts slowly. And Wait for You is far from the only example. So, while LLWD’s radio play doesn’t look that great now, it still ain’t over till it’s over. We’ll just have to wait and see.

  36. As far as I can tell, LLWD is nowhere near it’s peak. I’m not sure how one can spin it’s performance as a bad thign.

    Q3
    LLWD spin numbers do not look that good. A hit would be getting at least 5,000 a week after 3 weeks. For camparison, Kelly’s AG has been 10,000+, now falling.

    Okay, I have to call you out on that ridiculous comment. 5000 spins a week on Pop would place Kris in the Top 10. Pretty much all of the songs in the Top 10 have been there for months. The only new one is Britney Spears, and that alone explains its position.

    Even songs that have recently exploded like Owl City, Ke$ha, Rihanna, Gaga, Boys Like Girls are nowhere near 5000 spins. Except Owl City which has been out for months.

    girlygirl
    So if LLWD is only been added in 6 of the Top 20 markets, that limits the AI (audience impression). The question is why the single hasn’t been added in the other big markets.

    Most big markets aren’t usually early supporters. When Kris gets near Top 20 and looks stable watch those stations jump on the bandwagon. The markets he already has are impressive when you look at his chart position. That’s why his A.I. is so huge compared to the songs surrounding it on the charts.

  37. LLWD is doing moderatly well but the promo cycle is still on going. I’m curious to see how it will do after some big TV appearances.
    I’m looking forward to see Allison and her band performing the single live. Wish she’ll get better promo soon.

  38. LLWD spin numbers do not look that good. A hit would be getting at least 5,000 a week after 3 weeks. For camparison, Kelly’s AG has been 10,000+, now falling.

    Wouldn’t it make more sense to compare LLWD spin total to the toal for songs that came out at the same time that it did? And more importantly, comparing it to the spin totals for new artists. I don’t think it makes a lot of sense to compare Kris’ spins to someone who has the track record of top 10 songs that Kelly has, because obviously stations will jump at the chance to play her music, just like they would any artist who has a history of putting out hits, but it’s going to take a new artist a while to work up that type of credibility with stations. We can see that in the amount of time it took songs like “Down” or “Fireflies” to take off.

  39. So if LLWD is only been added in 6 of the Top 20 markets, that limits the AI (audience impression). The question is why the single hasn’t been added in the other big markets.

    Maybe the release of the music video on this coming Friday will help. IDK

    girlygirl – makes sense to me. I agree, while us in idol-dom think he’s gotten major promo, we’re really just hearing about individual radio appearances in different markets – the bigger interviews (TV, national, etc.) will come in the next few weeks throughout November.

  40. I have a feeling there will be an Idol Storm soon.

    LOL! I am SO ready :-)

  41. babybelle32
    I don’t think it makes a lot of sense to compare Kris’ spins to someone who has the track record of top 10 songs that Kelly has, because obviously stations will jump at the chance to play her music, just like they would any artist who has a history of putting out hits

    And I highly doubt it took her 3 weeks to get a Top 10 hit. Not sure why Kris is being held to that ridiculous standard.

  42. A hit would be getting at least 5,000 a week after 3 weeks.

    There aren’t too many hit songs then. The biggest gainer on Pop last week was Rihanna’s new song with a spincrease of 1267. At that rate, even she will fall far short of the 5000 spins in 3 weeks criteria. And that’s what the biggest gainer is achieving. I feel sorry for the losers like Beyonce, Lady Gaga and the Black Eyed Peas who couldn’t even achieve 1000+ spincrease on Pop last week.

    It takes many weeks for a song to be a hit. Three weeks isn’t enough for anybody (sometimes, in country when a legend releases a song they vault to the top, but that is extremely rare)

  43. LLWD has picked up two HAC adds this morning already (Houston & St. Louis) so let’s just wait and let the single work. It continues to get adds and spins as well as AI. If people in the actual music business gave up on a single after 3 weeks as easily as some here would, well….you get the point.

  44. Also, I think the most important stat is that LLWD is moving UP the charts. If it was dropping, that would be a problem. But it has been steadily moving up both the Hot AC and Pop charts. As long as it’s going in the right direction, it probably makes little sense to worry too much about all this.

    Also, Kris has a lot of national promotion scheduled around the time his album drops in 2 weeks — he will be on GMA, Conan. Regis & Kelly, Ellen, etc. These, plus the release of the LLWD music video should — in theory anyway — give the single and album a boost.

  45. Kirsten
    I feel sorry for the losers like Beyonce, Lady Gaga and the Black Eyed Peas who couldn’t even achieve 1000+ spincrease on Pop last week.

    :lol: I would love to see LLWD with a 4000 bullet though. Maybe this week will the week for the record shattering spin explosion.

    Sorry, I’ll let it go, but I almost fell out of my chair when I read the comment.

  46. Since I see Kris very much like Jordin and where she was in terms of winners leading up to their album release, does anyone remember where Tattoo was on the pop charts when her album dropped compared to LLWD?

    I just read on Pulse that Tattoo was #14 when the album was released.

  47. Thanks, girlygirl re: yes.com. Yeah, this could be a big week for the Idols! I hope Allison is part of this. I still think TfM is going to do well in December, after FYE is released and 2012 does well (if it does; I have a friend who wants to see it, and not b/c of Adam, lol).

    If this were based solely on Taylor Swift, who seems to get played every five minutes, no one would be doing well. ;)

  48. And I highly doubt it took her 3 weeks to get a Top 10 hit.

    That song has been out for a while. “Already Gone” was 41 on Pop back in August 2nd. It’s taken three months (not three weeks) for it to get from the cusp of Top 40 to top 10. That’s not unusual.

  49. The comparisons aren’t always fair but the media sure loves them some Idol comparisons. I have no doubt when his (and Adam’s) albums drops there will be all sorts of comparisons being brought up and he will be compared to other winners. Heck when NB came out there were articles comparing his first week sales to magic rainbow. The competition never ends within the Idol bubble.

    As for the iTunes pass..I know its impossible to know how many he sold but I’m kind of doubting it was some enormous amount based on what I remember of its iTunes position when it was charting. Knowing how much albums normally sell through iTunes I figure it may not be the kind of number to make a huge dent in first week sales.

  50. I just read on Pulse that Tattoo was #14 when the album was released.

    Yes. It was released in August of that year.

  51. Also, I think the most important stat is that LLWD is moving UP the charts. If it was dropping, that would be a problem. But it has been steadily moving up both the Hot AC and Pop charts. As long as it’s going in the right direction, it probably makes little sense to worry too much about all this.

    Excellent point :-)

  52. So if LLWD is only been added in 6 of the Top 20 markets, that limits the AI (audience impression). The question is why the single hasn’t been added in the other big markets.

    Well, the big markets are notoriously slow to get on board. It seems that most of the time what you see is between one and a handful of big markets brought on board out of the gate — due to negotiations and such between the record label and those stations — then a bunch of small to medium-sized markets picking the thing up, and then, finally, the other big markets coming on board. (if you’re lucky enough to get that far, of course!) Strangely, the big markets are actually the most conservative about playing new stuff.

  53. Speaking of the itune pass – how are those counted when his album is released?

    ETA: In terms of sales

  54. Speaking of the itune pass ‘“ how are those counted when his album is released?

    ETA: In terms of sales

    Would be as a first-week album sale, wouldn’t it?

  55. girlygirl
    11/02/2009 at 10:21 am
    I’m assuming 19/RCA aren’t going to push TFM now that Adam has FYE out? I see TFM is #135 on iTunes. It really dropped quickly after reaching the Top 10, and I haven’t heard or seen any promotion about it since it was initially released.

    IMO Since you can download a HQ TfM for free and there is no radio version, Sony is clearly using TfM to promote the film release. And there has been no indication of anything else is any statement by Sony, Columbia Pictures, RCA or 19 reps.

    Eileen99
    11/02/2009 at 10:25 am
    LOL that positive news gets spun into negative news. How exactly does moving up the charts in 3 formats = little traction? LMAO.

    Because after three weeks of airplay, LLWD is still not on the BBoard Hot 100 again. Peak is still the first week, pre-radio, at #89. And since it has been below #100 on iTunes all week, it will not re-enter BBoard Hot 100 this week either.

    girlygirl
    11/02/2009 at 10:25 am
    As for LLWD, no it’s not a megahit, but it’s probably going to end up as a Top 20 HAC and Top 40 Pop song ‘” so it can’t really be described as a flop, either. And because the reviews and listener feedback have been generally positive, I would guess that would mean stations would be more willing to play Kris’ next single whenever it is released.

    I think Top 20 HAC and Top 40 Pop is a stretch — but we’ll see. Here are the Billboard peak positions so far — the higher chart positions are on the charts that are based only on broadcast airplay.

    Chart (2009) Peak position
    U.S. Billboard Hot 100: 89 (airplay + sales)
    Hot Adult Contemporary Tracks: 32 (airplay only)
    Pop 100: 48 (airplay only)
    Christian Songs: 50 (airplay + sales)

  56. I’m curious, the NYC station that has added LLWD, is it Z100 or PLJ? I never listen to Z100. I only listen to PLJ when I’m in my car and don’t feel like listening to my ipod. I’ve heard LLWD on PLJ at least 3 times this week. So if they haven’t “officially” added it, they’re still playing it. Yesterday I heard it at 11:00 in the morning, so it’s not only being played overnight.

  57. All I keep hearing the Dj’s (who are on the job) saying is LLWDis going to be a hit. What do we know? They surely know how it works than we do. As for idol dome, we just look at itunes chart and sales. Doesn’t a song move to the top ofplay charts to be able to drive sales?

  58. I’ve said before that I get confused by the comparisons we see in this thread. I thought I read recently that everyone had pretty much wrote Jordin’s new single off as a flop. Yet, it shows here as being in the Top 40 in Pop. So SOS at 35 in Top 40 is a flop but LLWD is a hit at 43? Not trying to be controversial – I don’t know how many weeks Jordin’s single has been out. But some insight would be helpful to me.

  59. Q3
    I think Top 20 HAC and Top 40 Pop is a stretch ‘” but we’ll see.

    Putting it on the table: LLWD be Top 20 HAC, close to Top 10 before his album drops. He’ll be Top 40 pop by the end of this week.

    rowenaaine
    I thought I read recently that everyone had pretty much wrote Jordin’s new single off as a flop. Yet, it shows here as being in the Top 40 in Pop. So SOS at 35 in Top 40 is a flop but LLWD is a hit at 43? Not trying to be controversial ‘“ I don’t know how many weeks Jordin’s single has been out.

    I don’t know who has been calling Jordin’s SOS a flop. It’s not a flop, it’s add date was the week before Kris’s I think. But if we are going by the expectations that you need to be Top 10 in 3 months then yes, Jordin and Kris have flopped spectacularly.

  60. Does anyone have a list of the top 20 markets?

    Allison’s song went for adds last week?

  61. Q3, this isn’t a race, there is no time frame that stations have that they have to add the song or it’s too late. Just today, the song was added to two stations that are in the top 20 in terms of market size, (numbers 6 and 20). I have no idea why people think this is something that was supposed to happen over night, the song is growing in terms of spins and audience.

  62. Q3

    LLWD is now #26 on HAC and #43 on Pop for mediabase charts. And moving up on both. So how is Top 20 HAC and Top 40 Pop a stretch? LLWD moved up 6 spots on HAC and 6 spots on Pop charts from last week. So I would bet that Top 20 HAC and Top 40 Pop is pretty much a lock…

  63. cilady
    11/02/2009 at 11:08 am
    Putting it on the table: LLWD be Top 20 HAC, close to Top 10 before his album drops. He’ll be Top 40 pop by the end of this week.

    Maybe I misunderstood – I thought Q3 was referring to the Billboard charts in her post, not the mediabase charts. Aren’t they different?

  64. I’m curious, the NYC station that has added LLWD, is it Z100 or PLJ?

    Both stations have added the song.

  65. rowenaaine
    Maybe I misunderstood ‘“ I thought Q3 was referring to the Billboard charts in her post, not the mediabase charts. Aren’t they different?

    Billboard uses a different reporting firm. For example, the week Kris was #2nd most added in Mediabase, he was like 5th on Billboard because not all of the stations that report to Medibase report to Nielsen BDS.

    But LLWD’s a lock for Top 40 Pop and and Top 20 Adult Pop (HAC) on Billboard too. Maybe it’ll take a couple of weeks longer to do so, but usually if a song is at a certain number on mediabase, the Billboard numbers aren’t far behind.

  66. I’m curious, the NYC station that has added LLWD, is it Z100 or PLJ? I never listen to Z100. I only listen to PLJ when I’m in my car and don’t feel like listening to my ipod. I’ve heard LLWD on PLJ at least 3 times this week. So if they haven’t ‘officially’  added it, they’re still playing it. Yesterday I heard it at 11:00 in the morning, so it’s not only being played overnight

    Both stations have added it. WPLJ played it about twice a day last week, and hopefully the reaction that they’ve been getting is good, and they’ll play it more this week.

    This is a good example of how stations work on their own schedule. WPLJ added both LLWD and Archie’s Crush exactly one month after they debuted. I don’t know if there was a reason for this, but I don’t think that it was a coincidence.

  67. Thanks, leome, and babybelle32. I was reading the information in the previous post incorrectly. I thought it meant that 1 NYC station had added LLWD. I see now it was referring to NYC being the number 1 market.

  68. I don’t know who has been calling Jordin’s SOS a flop. It’s not a flop,

    Yes, I don’t know whose being saying that. I must have missed that thread. All I’ve seen is people being impressed that she’s notched her fifth Top 40 song. Every song she’s released has gone Top 40 and that’s not easy to do.

    Her latest album is seen to be under-performing, but whoever is faulting her airplay must have very strict standards indeed.

  69. Kris also landed another Christmas concert gig. This one also has Jason Castro’ ¦Dec. 18th in Orlando, FL. That makes 6 of these ‘JingleBall’  type things for Kris so far.

    http://xmas.xl1067.com/main.html

    oh, there’s the Fray and Leona Lewis in the line-up.. that gig is going to appeal to a lot.
    Good for Kris and Jason. I wonder if they couldn’t tour together next year.. just an idea

  70. Kris and Jason at the same concert. Maybe we can get a Kris (viola) and Jason (ukulele) Christmas medley of some kind.

  71. I don’t know who has been calling Jordin’s SOS a flop. It’s not a flop,

    I think people may be looking at the itunes chart again, since SOS hasn’t been charting high on that ranking. Of course, people aren’t thinking about the fact that SOS has been for sell since Battlefield came out, so people had months to buy SOS. I do believe that this was the other song that debuted on the billboard hot 100 the same week that the album was released. Once again, the itunes chart doesn’t tell the whole story. Also, itunes isn’t the only place where people can buy music.

  72. LOL I don’t think any new single is flopping (well, Allison’s maybe…). But speaking of another single, I’m surprised Daughtry’s LAY has yet to get a spin on CHR. The song is going for adds in a week, I’d expect at least a couple of singles till then.

  73. I read the comments more than once, about how both Battlefield and SOS were disappointments. Which, as someone who really enjoys both songs and hears them quite frequently on radio, I was surprised about. Maybe the comments were in comparison to other Idols, or to Jordin’s previous hits. But nonetheless, it stuck out in my mind that she was not considered to be as successful as she should be right now. I didn’t understand that, and I’m happy to see people here don’t agree with that assessment. Thank you. :)

  74. Speaking of spins, over on the “charts” thread at DCO this morning, the amazing Folkfan reports on a benchmark today, as well as on some cumulative stats (“AI” is Audience Impressions):

    Windy hit another milestone with this morning’s quickcut: 100,000 in cumulative spins. Again, this means that all three of DC’s mainstream singles have gotten at least 100,000 in cumulative spins—with Zenny passing the 200K mark a few weeks ago, and the Rainbow chipping away (violently) at the 300K mark—and all three of DC’s mainstream singles have gotten at least 600 million in cumulative AI—with Zenny being past the 1 billion mark and the Rainbow being past the 2.1 billion mark.

    Translator’s note: “Windy” is DCO’s nickname for CBTM, “Zenny” is DCOspeak for Light On, and y’all know what the Rainbow is.

  75. My take on it is, not even taking Kris into consideration, all of these labels have to juggle their acts and how they spend money on them, and Allison may just have a different roll out plan from say, Britney, Jordin, or Kris. Hence, maybe some strategy to make a bigger push later (after Thanksgiving perhaps), when the playing field is a little less cluttered.

    If you look at the schedule of Jingle Balls, you’ll notice that Kris will be performing in 6 of them, Jordin will also be doing 6, but Allison is only doing 1. Kris and Jordin are sharing 2 of those Jingle Balls, btw. There are only so many Jingle shows to go around. Archie (who happens to be on the same label) did about 11 of them last hear. So it seems that having multiple idols on the same label does have a limiting effect on their promotion, particularly for Allison, who is being treated like the black sheep of the flock at this point.

    ETA: It is still early. One or more of them could still be added to another Jingle show or two.

  76. Rowenaaine- Jordin has, arguably, the best radio track record out of any American Idol. Not sure why people are ready to proclaim any single of hers a flop especially when the single in question is still new. Haven’t all of her previous singles gone at least Top 10 in pop?

  77. I don’t remember reading here that Battlefield or SOS were huge disappointments, especially Battlefield which I would consider a huge hit. Now the ALBUM Battlefield? That’s IMO a huge flop. With Jordin’s airplay selling 2,000 CD’s a week now is bad.

  78. I don’t even understand that 5,000 spins a week argument. Yes, that’s what you need to get near the Top 10 on Pop radio. But songs don’t just jump up there. Don’t expect FYE to get that high in 3-4 weeks either. That’s reserved for the proven Pop sellers like Brtiney and Kelly.
    I think Britney can probably do it in less.

    There is no reason to believe the LLWD won’t break into the top 20 on HAC, It’s already pretty close. Ditto, I think it will break into the Top 40 on Pop although it may not go much higher.

    Maybe people didn’t like Battlegield the song but it’s chart run on radio was not a disappointment. It’s sales should be platinum as well.

    Jordin’s singles are not flops. She’s very dominant and if Adam or Kris have 1/2 the success she’s had on radio. they’ll be lucky. Her album is a whole other thing.

  79. cilady
    11/02/2009 at 11:26 am
    Jordin has, arguably, the best radio track record out of any American Idol.

    In comparison to Kelly? Daughtry? How so?

    I’m not disputing this, btw, just curious what statistical information you’re using to support your statement.

  80. Yes, today looks like the radio push day. Just remember that those spins are divided by format – some Pop and some HAC. So FYE will not be hitting that all important 5,000 Pop spins a week by next week. :)

    I’m comparing a)number of songs to chart in the Top 10 on Pop and b)downloads of singles sold. I think No Air has sold 3x platinum. As far as I know every single of Jordin’s so far has sold at least a million.

    I think Kelly still has more Top 40 hits though. But Jordin is def #2.

  81. So FYE will not be hitting that all important 5,000 Pop spins a week by next week.

    FLOP!! :)

  82. Forgot to address this:

    Q3
    Because after three weeks of airplay, LLWD is still not on the BBoard Hot 100 again. Peak is still the first week, pre-radio, at #89. And since it has been below #100 on iTunes all week, it will not re-enter BBoard Hot 100 this week either.

    The Hot 100 is based on a mixture of sales and A.I. When he first debuted on the chart it was due to sales alone. By now, the combination of both sales and play should put him somewhat close to a re-entry on the chart.

  83. I don’t know who has been calling Jordin’s SOS a flop. It’s not a flop, it’s add date was the week before Kris’s I think. But if we are going by the expectations that you need to be Top 10 in 3 months then yes, Jordin and Kris have flopped spectacularly.

    It’s hardly selling at the moment, and although I wouldn’t call it a flop just yet, if it’s sales doesn’t pick up in two or three weeks, then it will be a flop.

    I find it strange that people consider hitting top 40 in radioplay alone is any kind of success. Record companies release songs onto radio not because they only want radio play, they want radio play because radio is an advertisment medium for their songs. It’s the sales that count, and if a song doesn’t sell, then it is a flop. Radio play is only a means to an end.

  84. Getting played on the radio so hopefully millions of people hear your music is a sign of success. That’s the best way to get fans and build your visibility leading to eventual sales/tours/etc.

  85. i have a question about “chart position” on yes.com site.

    Kris has 2 channels on that site. On the one, it says LLWD has a current chart position of #9 but on the other it gives his current chart position as #21.

    Anyone know (1) what chart position refers to on this site; and (2) why the big discrepancy?

  86. Hazelhel
    It’s hardly selling at the moment, and although I wouldn’t call it a flop just yet, if it’s sales doesn’t pick up in two or three weeks, then it will be a flop.

    For me, as long as a single shows no signs of peaking (e.g. decrease in weekly spins/chart position/decrease in sales) two or three weeks down the line, it can’t be considered a flop. Both singles are still just over a month old (SOS closer to 2 months), I wouldn’t consider them old.

  87. Topic – Time to Reach Top 10 Status on Billboard:

    And I highly doubt it took [Kelly Clarkson] 3 weeks to get a Top 10 hit.

    Kirsten: [‘Already Gone’ ] has been out for a while. [It] was 41 on Pop back in August 2nd. It’s taken three months (not three weeks) for it to get from the cusp of Top 40 to top 10. That’s not unusual.

    Just an observation. I noticed here on mj’s when “Already Gone” went to adds back in early August. I have ONLY noticed it on regular rotation on my local radio within the last few weeks. And that song had a LOT of push behind it with Kelly’s well-known name attached!

  88. What are the best times for songs to get radio play? I’m assuming during morning (6 a.m.-9 a.m.) and afternoon (4 p.m.-7 p.m.) drive time, but what other times would be best? What about the worst — overnight (2 a.m.-4 a.m.)?

  89. I find it strange that people consider hitting top 40 in radioplay alone is any kind of success. Record companies release songs onto radio not because they only want radio play, they want radio play because radio is an advertisment medium for their songs. It’s the sales that count, and if a song doesn’t sell, then it is a flop. Radio play is only a means to an end.

    SOS has sold 53,000 copies so far, and saw a 25% increase in its sells last week which corresponds to the increased airplay that it has been getting. People call entering the top 40 or higher a hit, because there is a definite relationship between increased airplay and sells.

    For example, if Adam’s TFM was getting any airplay it would be selling more than it is, but it’s not, and that’s why it had that amazing fall down the “vaunted” itunes chart. The majority of people aren’t going to buy a song just because it is Adam, Kris, Allison or Jordin who are singing it. Not only do people have to be made aware that a song is out there, they also need to be exposed to it enough so that they develop a connection with it.

  90. For whomever asked about which NYC stations have added LLWD; both the HAC and Top 40 stations. In fact after a big burst at Z100 when they played the living snot out of it, it dropped down a bit in spins, but now is back on the spincrease there.

    edited out the sarcasm

  91. That’s interesting about AG from Kelly. I think some songs have made it to Top 10 in 2-3 weeks but it’s very rare. Off the top of my head, I’m guessing Britney’s latest song 3 did it. But maybe it took longer.

  92. gemini1
    11/02/2009 at 11:42 am

    Pulse is reporting over 30 spins for FYE this morning!

    Do I got to pulse.com? And yes.com is baffling the hell out of me. ::dumb::

    And YAY!!!!

  93. I haven’t heard LLWD on my station yet and they added it on October 12th I think. I listen to KPEK in Albuquerque, an HAC station. I listen all day at work and during my commute. Does anyone know how I can find out if they’ve played it??

    Kris is holdig his own and it looks promising that he will surpass expectations.

    Whose expectations are you talking about? He has high expectations, as far as I’m concerned, as the reigning American Idol. I still think the song will do well, I’d just like to see his itunes ranking go up along with the increased airplay. He did sell about 200 more than last week, so increase is good.

  94. CindyM: “Whose expectations are you talking about?”

    I won’t speak for Evanjane, but my assumption is she was talking about the expectations that the song is most certainly a flop, a disaster, a debacle by the faux experts.

  95. CindyM, KPEK played LLWD 8 times last week, so right now it’s in very lite rotation. http://addboard.mediabase.com/SongAddHistory.asp?Sngcde=ALLELLWD&ob=1&format=A2 These numbers are not unsuaul or bad. Most stations don’t start out by putting a song into heavy rotation. Kris’ spins will either increase or decrease based on the audience’s reaction to the song, as well as how well the song does in other markets. So far, the fact that the song has been increasing, and stations that had in lite rotation have increased their spins, this is a very good sign.

    And all I can say about your expectations is that I’m glad that Kris only has to live up to Jive’s expectations, and that those expectations are centered around Kris having a long career, and not around him being an American Idol winner, comparing him to others who were on the show, or stilly fan wars. I’m glad that Jive sees Kris as a new artist, which is a realistic way to build a career, not focusing on what others, who aren’t Kris, did or are doing.

  96. Eileen99
    11/02/2009 at 12:24 pm
    I won’t speak for Evanjane, but my assumption she was talking about the expectations the song is a flop, a disaster, a debacle by the faux experts.

    Gotcha. There seem to be a lot of those on both sides of the fences for Kris and Adam. All I know is that I hope they’re both successful in the long run. Kris’s music isn’t really for me, so far, but I want him to be as successful as he wants to be, he seems like a cool guy.

    I’d really like to know what’s happening with Allison’s single. It was less rock than I thought it would be, but I think it would be a hit in the pop market. Her promotion doesn’t seem to be there yet though.

  97. That’s interesting about AG from Kelly. I think some songs have made it to Top 10 in 2-3 weeks but it’s very rare. Off the top of my head, I’m guessing Britney’s latest song 3 did it. But maybe it took longer.

    Ok – random statistic time, but didn’t we just hear that Britney’s 3 was the first song since Taylor Hick’s post idol song (can’t even remember the name, sorry) to debut at #1 on Billboard? That can show just how rare it is for a song to really take off in such a short amount of time.

    The Kelly Clarkson example above with AG further shows that even big, established hitmakers need time to really build up to a hit with a new song (except in very rare circumstances).

  98. Thanks Babybelle32 for the link. I wonder what time they’re playing it, maybe evenings. Cool that they’re playing it though!

  99. As I said earlier, it seems we in the idoldome view things differently from the way those in the business view it. A winner is supposed to sell hundreds in week 1 is one of them in idoldome. Though it’s good, coming from idol makes it look something else to the radio people. I just heard another ” this song is going to be a hit, it’s a good song” from my local radio. YAY! for Kris. I think they know better than we do, IMO.

  100. “Gotcha. There seem to be a lot of those on both sides of the fences for Kris and Adam. All I know is that I hope they’re both successful in the long run. ”

    CindyM: WE AGREE.

  101. One more thing CindyM, LLWD didn’t sell 200 more singles last wee, it sold 10,000 singles last week. I know that it might seem like it makes sense to look at the percentage increase, but that’s like saying that the same 9,800 copies that were sold the week before were also sold last week. The spins didn’t result in 200 more copies being sold, it resulted in 10,000 copies being sold. If it wasn’t for the spins, LLWD wouldn’t be selling anywhere near 10,000 copies. For proof of that, we can compare LLWD numbers to what TFM will be putting up over the next couple of weeks. Seriously, the itunes number doesn’t mean anything, what does matter is that the single continues to sell.

  102. I have/had higher expectations too since he won. He is not just a new artists. He is a singer with a big following already. I too get confused on airplay if airplay is a measure of success. Likewise, it should turn into sales- I get that. But, I was expecting more in terms of sales for the winner. For this song, in particular, not so much. I don’t know many peeps that are loving it besides already established KA fans.

  103. “CindyM: ‘Whose expectations are you talking about?’ 

    I won’t speak for Evanjane, but my assumption she was talking about the expectations the song is a flop, a disaster, a debacle by the faux experts.” — Eileen99

    EXACTLY! Thank you. CindyM– to find out if LLWD has been played just go on your local Radio’s site and look for their playlist. Just search the site. I’m in Connecticut– 101.3 and 96.5 have very easy sites to negotiate. 95.7 TOP 40 might be a bit more urban and hasn’t spun LLWD yet, as far as, I know. Other stations in CT might be playing it, but I haven’t been seeking it out.

    I’m a realist. I watch the numbers, the charts and formulate my opinions based on fact. I don’t do hyperbole. I’m not fannish. I’m happy when I see progress. I hope for the best for all of them.

  104. edited post you were responding to

    I’m soooo happy this seems to be the consensus on this site. Because it means that for the next three weeks (after FYE goes for adds tomorrow) there will be blessed silence around here with nary a peep from anyone if Adam’s song fails to reach Top 10 in 3 weeks. No comparisons to Idols past. No comparisons to superstars present. Just optomistic and encouraging words about how songs need time to build. ;)

  105. slightly off topic, but had to insert the first wave of album sales from hits daily double… michael jackson is still kicking butts and taking names from the grave… his numbers are going to be phenomenal this week… may all the artists we angst and kvetch over here daily have 1/10th of 1 percent of jackson’s success – living or dead…

    CHART DATE: 11/02/2009
    LAST UPDATE: 11/02/2009 10:17:00
    NOW IN: 36.20%

    1 MICHAEL JACKSON THIS IS IT EPIC 185,727

    idol related…
    48 DAUGHTRY 19/RCA/RMG 3,110
    LEAVE THIS TOWN

    http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/sales/salescht.cgi

  106. SOS has sold 53,000 copies so far, and saw a 25% increase in its sells last week which corresponds to the increased airplay that it has been getting. People call entering the top 40 or higher a hit, because there is a definite relationship between increased airplay and sells.

    I never doubted the increased airplay can increase sales, that’s because airplay is an advert for the song. SOS however isn’t improving its position on iTunes (in fact it looks to be falling) despite increasing airplay this week, it doesn’t suggest that this song is appealing to the buying public. It needs good airply from the big radio stations like Z100 to give it a push.

    I suppose it’s because I come from a country where airplay counts for nought in the singles chart that I do find the way people in US equating good airplay with success really odd. If there are plenty of adverts for a brand of toothpaste, it only means that there are plenty of adverts and nothing more; it says nothing about the success of this brand of toothpaste. If a recording company can choose between No 1 in airplay chart but no sales, or a million unit sold but no airplay, which would they choose?

    I think LLWD is doing OK for now, albeit a bit lackluster. It will probably pick up a bit more once the album hits the store and the promotions really get going. SOS however is looking very sickly. It’s a dreadful choice for a single anyway, there are at least a couple of better songs in her album that are more suitable as singles.

  107. Does anyone know how long it took Blake Lewis’ first single to reach the top 40? He seems like the closest benchmark for Mr. Lambert. Runner-up. Dance-pop oriented. Similar CD cover artwork.

  108. If there are plenty of adverts for a brand of toothpaste, it only means that there are plenty of adverts and nothing more; it says nothing about the success of this brand of toothpaste.

    Well, labels can’t directly buy airplay in the US as if it were adtime, it’s illegal. A major label can push a song to a certain extent but in the end, airplay is dependent on market demand. Stations won’t play a song unless they think their listeners want to hear it.

    No comparisons to Idols past. No comparisons to superstars present. Just optomistic and encouraging words about how songs need time to build.

    I agree, and I think it would be nice if that courtesy were extended to all the Idols, not just one’s favorite.

  109. No comparisons to Idols past. No comparisons to superstars present. Just optomistic and encouraging words about how songs need time to build.

    I agree, and I think it would be nice if that courtesy were extended to all the Idols, not just one’s favorite.

    amen to that… :D

  110. The comparisons aren’t always fair but the media sure loves them some Idol comparisons. I have no doubt when his (and Adam’s) albums drops there will be all sorts of comparisons being brought up and he will be compared to other winners. Heck when NB came out there were articles comparing his first week sales to magic rainbow. The competition never ends within the Idol bubble.

    Well the Idol comparisons make sense, don’t they? We can’t compare the Idols to established stars like Gaga and Beyonce because those artists already have a built in fanbase and name to get radio play and sales. But we can’t compare the Idols to truly new, previously unknown names like Owl City or Ke$ha either because the Idols have had far more exposure and built in fanbase than a true unknown–the whole point of Idol.

    The Idols are in a really unique situation. When it comes to analyzing how well an Idol is doing on radio or ITunes, often the more accurate and sensible benchmarks are set by other Idol alumni. As long as it doesn’t degenerate into fanwarring, of course :)

  111. ‘Gotcha. There seem to be a lot of those on both sides of the fences for Kris and Adam. All I know is that I hope they’re both successful in the long run. ‘ 

    CindyM: WE AGREE.

    Me too. I think we all want that for most of them ( I say most because there are couple of them over the 8 season that annoy me) but the comparisons will always be made because even though you want it for all of them you want your favorite to do a little bit better ;)

  112. LaurelG
    11/02/2009 at 12:40 pm
    It’s such a shame there have only been a couple of hits all year long, and virtually every song has been a flop because it didn’t reach Top 10 in 3 weeks. I continue to LOL and WTF all at the same time while enjoying the comments.

    I’m soooo happy this seems to be the consensus on this site. Because it means that for the next three weeks (after FYE goes for adds tomorrow) there will be blessed silence around here with nary a peep from anyone if Adam’s song fails to reach Top 10 in 3 weeks. No comparisons to Idols past. No comparisons to superstars present. Just optomistic and encouraging words about how songs need time to build.

    Nice post, Laurel G. and I agree. Wish there was a way to favorite this post, because I’m sure it’ll be needed in the future. Maybe I’ll just cut/paste & save. That’ll work!

  113. Squirrely
    11/02/2009 at 1:08 pm

    Me too. I think we all want that for most of them ( I say most because there are couple of them over the 8 season that annoy me) but the comparisons will always be made because even though you want it for all of them you want your favorite to do a little bit better

    Well, yeah that’s true too ;) And yeah, there are some from previous seasons that I don’t care if I ever hear from again, but I’m sure they have fans somewhere..so, well..success wishes I guess.

  114. I’m soooo happy this seems to be the consensus on this site. Because it means that for the next three weeks (after FYE goes for adds tomorrow) there will be blessed silence around here with nary a peep from anyone if Adam’s song fails to reach Top 10 in 3 weeks.

    Reach the top ten where? Itunes or charts in general?


  115. I’m soooo happy this seems to be the consensus on this site. Because it means that for the next three weeks (after FYE goes for adds tomorrow) there will be blessed silence around here with nary a peep from anyone if Adam’s song fails to reach Top 10 in 3 weeks.

    Reach the top ten where? Itunes or charts in general?

    Good question, plus I have every intention of peeping. ;)

  116. I think we’ve been talking about the Top 10 on the Mediabase pop airplay chart, right?

  117. Regarding LLWD — my comment was referring to the Billboard charts that include sales.

    Airplay costs Kris money — because it is supported by expensive promotion. The only Billboard charts that mean potential $’s to Kris are the ones that involve sales. And that is what matters to me. The airplay charts are only interesting if they result in sales — and that doesn’t seem to be happening. I said when LLWD first leaked I thought 19R/Jive screwed Kris by picking this for his single and that he deserved better. I still see no evidence that this song can be a hit for him. And I am still angry about the choice.

    I’m soooo happy this seems to be the consensus on this site. Because it means that for the next three weeks (after FYE goes for adds tomorrow) there will be blessed silence around here with nary a peep from anyone if Adam’s song fails to reach Top 10 in 3 weeks.

    I actually do not believe that FYE will hit the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 — it will be great, but all I am expecting is Billboard Hot 100 Top 40. And since TfM hit 50 with 8 spins (essentially no radio), I think that is a reasonable expectation. BUT I do expect it to be Top 10 on all 4 Billboard dance charts: Dance Club Play Songs, Hot Dance Airplay, Hot Dance Singles Sales and Global Dance Tracks.

    Blake Lewis “How Many Words” hit #8 on the U.S. Billboard Hot Dance Club Play but that is based It is compiled by Billboard from playlists submitted by nightclub disc jockeys who must apply and meet certain criteria to become “Billboard-reporting DJs. I do not think any Idol Alum has hit Top 10 on the Hot Dance Singles Sales chart — I am certain someone will correct me if I am wrong — so this could be an Idol first.

  118. Did anyone think LLWD would pick up a spin on a station listed in the regional mexican format? Not me, but it did on a station in Raleigh!

    As far as my expectations, I’m going to wait at least until after the tv promo begins before I call LLWD a success or a flop. If sales don’t pick up by December then I think Jive should go ahead and release a second single.

  119. here’s the latest billboard ranking for top dance club songs….

    Billboard Hot Dance Club Songs (11/14/2009)

    Hot Dance Club Play Issue date: 11/14/2009

    1 Paparazzi Lady Gaga Streamline/KonLive/Cherrytree / Interscope
    2 Did You See Me Coming? Pet Shop Boys Astralwerks / Capitol
    3 F*ck You Lily Allen Capitol
    4 S.O.S. (Let The Music Play) Jordin Sparks 19/Jive / JLG
    5 Million Dollar Bill Whitney Houston Arista / RMG
    6 Do What U Like Bad Boy Bill Nettwerk
    7 Sexy b***h David Guetta Featuring Akon Gum/Astralwerks/Capitol
    8 Love Songs Anjulie Hear / CMG
    9 Release Me Agnes King Island Rocky Star / NFM
    10 We Are Golden MIKA Casablanca / Universal Motown
    11 Sad Song Blake Lewis Tommy Boy

    http://pulsemusic.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=dance&action=display&thread=90672

  120. I’m soooo happy this seems to be the consensus on this site. Because it means that for the next three weeks (after FYE goes for adds tomorrow) there will be blessed silence around here with nary a peep from anyone if Adam’s song fails to reach Top 10 in 3 weeks.

    Well, that would certainly be a change of pace from what we’ve had so far, wouldn’t it?

    I’m not exactly finding this consensus you are speaking of. There have been peeps willing to give LLWD and other Idol singles a chance to build, and others who beat the flop drum almost right off the bat.

    Not sure why differing opinions should now suddenly be stifled.

    (the veiled sarcasm is just so much more fanwarring in my book. Wish we all could just deal with differing opinions and leave it at that)

  121. Q3, obviously the promotion and airplay are resulting in sales, if they weren’t, Kris’ sales would be no where near 10,000. The free fall that TFM took, shows what happens to songs that don’t get any airplay. All the hype in the world, and having Adam’s name attached to it couldn’t keep up sales. The same is true for every song, that’s why artists work so hard to get radio stations to play their songs.

  122. I think airplay alone should not be a matrix in measuring a song’s success. Of course historically more airplay leads to more sales, but airplay is just a mean to the ultimate goal, it’s not the goal. What is the use of AI if it can not transfer to sales? It’s like online-ads. There are two basic methods to measure how successful a banner is: the click-through rate and the transaction rate. Before .com boasted on how popular their sites were using the click-through rate; but now merchants realize that click-through means little if viewers don’t end up buying the advertised products so merchants rely more on the transaction rate. Radio spins are like click-throughs, it’s the beginning of a purchase decision process, but there are still several clicks before artist/label can make real profit.

    One can argues that airplay will benefit the artist in a long run, but the fact is if it can’t benefit the sales in a short run, its impact will decrease exponentially in a long run.

    For those who think good airplay alone is some kind of success, I’ll ask if you were the product/project manager of LLWD, would you expect a pat on the back from your boss after your performance-to-date review?

  123. I do not think any Idol Alum has hit Top 10 on the Hot Dance Singles Sales chart ‘” I am certain someone will correct me if I am wrong ‘” so this could be an Idol first.

    Is FYE going to be released as a CD single? Because that’s what the Hot Dance Singles Sales chart measures,

  124. No comparisons to Idols past. No comparisons to superstars present. Just optomistic and encouraging words about how songs need time to build.

    Hahaha. Sorry, that’s a nice idea, but it’s not gonna happen on this blog. The sales and mediabase threads have always been chock full of comparisons to anything and everything that make sense, and some things that don’t. I’m sure the threads will continue to have optimistic and encouraging words coupled with some realistic comparisons coupled with some really bad/ludicrous ones, and everyone will have a ball discussing it all.

  125. jpfan
    That’s interesting about AG from Kelly. I think some songs have made it to Top 10 in 2-3 weeks but it’s very rare. Off the top of my head, I’m guessing Britney’s latest song 3 did it. But maybe it took longer.

    Britney was in the Top 10 Week 1 on the sales and airplay charts. Kelly made the Top 10 on the airplay charts a few weeks after AG was released.

    Kelly’s Already Gone was not a lead album single so not comparable to one —

    – 3/29/09 – Billboard Hot 100 #70 due to digital download sales of the album track, which was released two weeks earlier. It dropped out of both charts the following week.

    – 8/11/09 released as a single and re-entered the Hot 100 chart at #89. Currently #17 (11/7/09 chart — this could also be the peak).

    Britney’s “3” – lead album single for The Singles Collection Jive 11/10/09 release. (Deluxe version box set released on 11/23/09.)

    – debuted at number one on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week ending October 24, 2009.

    – Spears became the first artist in over three years to debut at the top position and the only non-American Idol artist in eleven years to do so.

  126. I think airplay alone should not be a matrix in measuring a song’s success. Of course historically more airplay leads to more sales, but airplay is just a mean to the ultimate goal, it’s not the goal.

    Single sales aren’t the “ultimate goal” either though. They don’t really make money off of single sales. I think of it as airplay and single sales both as a tool working towards the ultimate goal of album sales. Actually on second thought perhaps album sales aren’t the ultimate goal either. Apparently the real money is in touring and merchandise. So it’s all leading towards the ultimate goal of getting the artist’s name and image out there enough to sell tours and get endorsement deals! :P See how hard it is to sort out what matters?

    But it’s impossible to determine whether Kris is on the way to selling tours and getting endorsement deals yet. All we have right now is airplay and sales numbers, and as tools towards the ultimate goal, I think they’re equally important.

  127. For those who think good airplay alone is some kind of success, I’ll ask if you were the product/project manager of LLWD, would you expect a pat on the back from your boss after your performance-to-date review?

    Yes I would, especially since so far, sales of LLWD have out performed the sales numbers that are usually posted for songs with similar airplay and AI. Iwould hope that my employers are intelligent enough to judge the song based on that, instead of parameters that are not realistic.

  128. Actually, Blake Lewis sorta charted on the Hot Dance Singles Sales chart. He did the vocal for the Darude cover, “I Ran So Far Away”. It debuted on the Hot Dance Singles Sales chart at #5.

  129. For me, LLWD is never a wrong choice of single for Kris. Has any song ever been? It is either people love it or not and that doesn’t make it a wrong choice for a single, not in my books.
    The song has been out just 6 weeks and so far is doing good.
    At least for me, people who know Kris bought the single within the first two weeks of it’s release, so it makes a lot of sense to think that all the sales after that are from people who are hearing the song and buying it. Comparing the weekly AI to the weekly sales, it’s doing well more so when it hasn’t gotten to even 50% airplay nation wide.

  130. ‘I Ran So Far Away’ .

    Aww, I loved Flock of Seagulls. NGL, the music video made me dizzy, though!

  131. The free fall that TFM took, shows what happens to songs that don’t get any airplay. All the hype in the world, and having Adam’s name attached to it couldn’t keep up sales.

    But even with all the increased airplay for LLWD, TFM didn’t fall below it in terms of Itunes Rankings until last night. All of last week, TFM was ranked above LLWD, all the way up to late Sunday afternoon and it got what, 8 spins? As far as all the hype in the world, outside the bubble, what hype are you talking about? It’s already been said that the video didn’t show before the This Is It showings, the movie hasn’t been released yet, Adam had stories on Extra and EW, but only on the video and short snippets were shown. Most of Adam’s exposure on Access Hollywood, Extra and ET were for the Details pictures. From most of the reports on the current 2012 trailer being seen, TFM isn’t featured either.

    I expect TFM to keep falling, it may go up once 2012 is released, it may not. It’s obvious though, that there is currently no promotion planned for it. It hasn’t been released for adds, nor does it look like there’s any push to radio in terms of banners or other methods.

  132. ggdoorsfan
    11/02/2009 at 1:42 pm
    here’s the latest billboard ranking for top dance club songs’ ¦.

    Billboard Hot Dance Club Songs (11/14/2009)
    Hot Dance Club Play Issue date: 11/14/2009

    That is the number of appearances on reporting Club DJ Playlists. Great, but not the Dance sales chart. That is the one I am hoping Adam can crack — and if a white, openly gay artist who is an Idol alum can crack the Top 10 on the Dance Sales Chart, that is a big deal.

    Both Jordin and Black have made the Hot Dance Club Play chart — Jordin hit #5. I mentioned Blake specifically because there was a mention of Black hitting the Top 10 on the Dance Charts and some apparent confusion over the 4 Billboard dance charts in another thread. Probably should have been clearer.

    mj: Is FYE going to be released as a CD single? Because that’s what the Hot Dance Singles Sales chart measures,

    Currently, there is a rumor online that it will be released in Mexico as a CD single and imported into the US. Which, as I understand it, if sold in the US by US retailers will count for the Hot Dance Singles Sales (and maybe someday Billboard will change this charts rules again to make it really reflect Dance Track Sales.)

    The rumor may have some credibility since Greg Wells confirmed they will be releasing both UK and Japan versions of FYE [album] so RCA is going international with Adam out of the gate — similar to how Jive released Archie’s first album in Asia at the same time they did the US release.

  133. I don’t know why some posters picked on Q3’s LLWD spin post. To me, all that post says is so far LLWD has mediocre air spins and corresponding mediocre sales. That fits perfectly to the same posters’ argument logic that LLWD’s sales will do better if given time to pick up more spins.

    Q3, obviously the promotion and airplay are resulting in sales, if they weren’t, Kris’ sales would be no where near 10,000.

    If you pay $10 promotion and gain a $100 sales, you’ll expect more than $100 sales when you increase the promotion to $20. If you get the same $100 sales, your profit is in fact less. We are seeing *increasing* in LLWD’s air spins, AI and adds, however we haven’t seen *increasing* in LLWD’s sales. Time lag may be an explanation of the jarring, but the sustained low sales are not.

  134. The sales chart is usually similar to the airplay chart. So I’m going to disagree with the belief that airplay and sales are mutually exclusive. Yes, Jive would be happy with high airplay because high airplay = high sales pretty much all of the time.

    Q3
    Top 10 on the airplay charts a few weeks after AG was released.

    I am not sure what you mean by a “few” weeks. The single was announced sometime July, it went for adds in August. It just recently broke the Top 10 this past week or so.

  135. mj: Actually, Blake Lewis sorta charted on the Hot Dance Singles Sales chart. He did the vocal for the Darude cover, ‘I Ran So Far Away’ . It debuted on the Hot Dance Singles Sales chart at #5.

    I think that counts!

  136. Reminder:

    I actually edited and deleted a few posts here. Please keep the sarcasm and the baiting out of the discussion.

  137. I’m soooo happy this seems to be the consensus on this site. Because it means that for the next three weeks (after FYE goes for adds tomorrow) there will be blessed silence around here with nary a peep from anyone if Adam’s song fails to reach Top 10 in 3 weeks.

    I don’t think there is consensus. Somebody clearly thinks that a song has to go to top 10 in 3 weeks, so that person clearly disagrees with what some others think. That person retains the right to call Adam a HUGE flop if he fails to reach the Top 10 by November 20th.

    I personally do not agree with all the criterias that people post, but if those people consistently apply them, I won’t call them a hypocrite (well, I won’t publicly call them that in any event, because we don’t do that on this blog).

    No comparisons to Idols past.

    Well, there are always comparisons to Idols past. There is no rule against that.

    I personally think there is a HUGE difference between saying that a song has to hit Top 10 in 3 weeks than saying that this or that song is gaining spins faster/slower than some such other song did.

    And sometimes, these comparisons are encouraged. If somebody posts something factually incorrect (e.g. “Such-and-Such Idol has the biggest spincrease in Idol history. They have burst the bubble!”), they are bound to see a few posts correcting the error with comparison data.

  138. Yes I would, especially since so far, sales of LLWD have out performed the sales numbers that are usually posted for songs with similar airplay and AI.

    My argument is that airplay along can not be used as a measure of success. Since you are using the sales number in your post, I guess you agree with me.

    Single sales aren’t the ‘ultimate goal’  either though. They don’t really make money off of single sales.

    I saw posters saying Jordin is a successful idol because although her album doesn’t sell quite well, she moves singles. So I think single sales are at least a periodical goal.

    Well, in terms of accounting, single sales will be booked as revenue, but airplays won’t.

  139. That is the number of appearances on reporting Club DJ Playlists. Great, but not the Dance sales chart.

    i think the billboard sales chart is one that requires one to be a paid subscriber in order to get that info… i’ve searched for a sales chart on the web, unable to find one for free… ;)

  140. There’s alot of chart confusion here. The topic of this thread are the Mediabase charts which purely chart radio play in different formats. The Billboard Hot 100 charts all the songs in the US across genres based on a formula that includes radio play and sales.

    If the criteria is that FYE has to hit the Top 10 on the Pop chart in three weeks, the song needs to get played about 250 times a day from now on (on Pop radio). Get cracking FYE.

    Mediabase (the topic here) is purely how the song does on the radio. Radio is very important in the US. Much more so than other countries where sales alone determine hits.A song can be a HIT on the radio charts without great sales. Although eventually single sales have to catch up or people wonder if the station is getting paid to play the song (illegal) since people aren’t buying it.

  141. babybelle32
    11/02/2009 at 10:47 am
    Q3:LLWD spin numbers do not look that good. A hit would be getting at least 5,000 a week after 3 weeks. For camparison, Kelly’s AG has been 10,000+, now falling.

    Wouldn’t it make more sense to compare LLWD spin total to the toal for songs that came out at the same time that it did? And more importantly, comparing it to the spin totals for new artists.

    I see a lot of people calling Q3 out on her (opinion) that a song should be getting 5,000 spins a week after 3 weeks to be a hit. I don’t know much about it (and Q3 does offer a lot of solid, factual data which she has access to, so I’m willing to listen – she may have the paid subscriptions to Billboard and others) but here’s my question to the follow-up by babybelle32:

    Wouldn’t it make the most sense to compare spins to other Idol winners’ first album single? Not the coronation song, the lead single. How many spins in how many weeks to hit a certain position. How long has LLWD been out, 6 weeks or so? Does someone have access to Cook, Jordin, Taylor, Carrie, etc. data for lead single spins/weeks/sales?

    Seems this thread usually leverages comparisons among other Idols, and maybe this was discussed in previous Mediabase threads. I admit I haven’t really read this thread much in the past because it’s Adam’s sales I’m waiting for – but now I’m intrigued. If this info is in a previous week’s thread, please let me know which one so I can read up on it. (Can’t spend too much time searching while at work.)

    Thanks!

  142. But even with all the increased airplay for LLWD, TFM didn’t fall below it in terms of Itunes Rankings until last night. All of last week, TFM was ranked above LLWD, all the way up to late Sunday afternoon and it got what, 8 spins? As far as all the hype in the world, outside the bubble, what hype are you talking about? It’s already been said that the video didn’t show before the This Is It showings, the movie hasn’t been released yet, Adam had stories on Extra and EW, but only on the video and short snippets were shown. Most of Adam’s exposure on Access Hollywood, Extra and ET were for the Details pictures. From most of the reports on the current 2012 trailer being seen, TFM isn’t featured either.

    I wasn’t comparing TFM to LLWD placement on itunes, I was referring to it’s freefall. I don’t even know where to start. 1. The video was featured on ET, and it was on the front page of billboard.com last week. So, yes, it did receive a lot of publicity, but this actually has nothing to do with airplay, which is what my quote was about. Publicity is nice, and that publicity, mainly in regards to the AI fanbase, netted a first week total of over 40,000, but without the airplay that total fell hard and fast.

    2. As far as TFM ranking above LLWD, this is snotty, but I didn’t know that the point was for the song to rank above LLWD, I thought the point was for the song to sell. In fact, if you want to bring LLWD into this, and act like the itunes charts mean something, LLWD sales have remained stable, and never did they have the freefall that TFM had.

    If you want to talk about the itunes chart itself, again, we have no clue what these numbers mean. At one point yesterday it was ranked in the 150’s but by yesterday afternoon, and it was afternoon not night when the ranking went above TFM’s, it was in the 120’s. I’ll also bring up the Halloween songs that were ranked above both TFM and LLWD for most of the weekend, yet by yesterday evening these songs had fallen off the chart. Logic would dictate that a song that was ranked as high of 80 couldn’t just disappear, so what does this imply. Did those Halloween songs sell more than LLWD and TFM for the entire week, for a weekend, for a day, what? And why did they suddenly just vanish, instead of sliding down the chart? I don’t have the answers to any of those questions, but I do know that these questions show why treating the itunes chart as if it means something is stupid.

  143. Sirus XM’s HAC channel finally added LLWD. Been waiting for that one for a while. Hoping the Pop is next.

  144. Somebody clearly thinks that a song has to go to top 10 in 3 weeks, so that person clearly disagrees with what some others think. That person retains the right to call Adam a HUGE flop if he fails to reach the Top 10 by November 20th.

    I personally do not agree with all the criterias that people post, but if those people consistently apply them, I won’t call them a hypocrite (well, I won’t publicly call them that in any event, because we don’t do that on this blog).

    Lol. You could always just mention Q3 by name. It won’t kill her, and I think we all know who you’re referring to anyway.

    But I won’t point out blatant passive aggressiveness, because that’s not what we do here at the blog. :P

  145. I am not sure what you mean by a ‘few’  weeks. The single was announced sometime July, it went for adds in August. It just recently broke the Top 10 this past week or so.

    What I meant was that it took time vs. “3” which debuted in the Top 10 Mediabase airplay and had a #1 Billboard debut.

    Here are the Mediabase milestones for “Already Gone”. The single was released on 8/11/09 but promo started in July. It hit Mainstream Top 10 on 10/25/09. It continued to climb in both radio airplay and on the sales charts from early August to current iTunes chart #23; Billboard #17.

    AG Entered Hot AC – Top 40 – 8/4/09

    8/6/09:
    Pop Chart: 95 64 KELLY CLARKSON Already Gone 212 65 +147 1.437
    Hot AC: 52 37 KELLY CLARKSON Already Gone 247 102 +145 1.104
    iTunes Songs: #66

    “Already Gone” – single released 8/11/09
    28 KELLY CLARKSON Already Gone RCA/RMG 2009 431 228 203 32 12.3 6.5 +5.8
    Not in Top 50 on Mainstream Mediabase

    8/14/09 Mainstream Top 40: 50 KELLY CLARKSON Already Gone 569 284 285 2.442

    8/29/09 Mainstream Top 40: #35 KELLY CLARKSON Already Gone RCA/RMG 2009 1249 970 279 71 16.4 13.1 +3.3

    9/21/09 Hot AC: 16 KELLY CLARKSON Already Gone RCA/RMG 2009 1600 1360 240 76 21.1 17.9 +3.2

    10/4/09 Mainstream Top 40: 20 KELLY CLARKSON Already Gone RCA/RMG 2009 3172 2739 433 121 26.2 22.6 +3.6

    10/9/09 HOT AC: 10 KELLY CLARKSON Already Gone 2427 2026 401 12.051

    10/25/09 Mainstream Top 40: 10 KELLY CLARKSON Already Gone 5526 4615 911 31.019

  146. Just for reference, I took the iTunes chart I posted earlier to give an indication of how spins last week translated to sales:

    24: Kelly Clarkson: Already Gone – AI 57.994M (Total:508M)

    27: Carrie Underwood: Cowboy Casanova – AI 42.092M (Total: 378M)
    60: Carrie Underwood: Undo It -221K (Total:328K)

    73: Jordin Sparks: Battlefield – 21.761M (Total: 1.188 Billion)

    125: Kris Allen: Live Like We’re Dying- 7.517M (Total: 41M)

    135: Adam Lambert: Time for Miracles – 31K (Total: 188K)

    152: Daughtry: No Surprise – 34.079M (Total: 1.193 Billion)

    237: Kellie Pickler: Best Days of Your Life – 6.34M (Total: 771M)

    252: Jordin Sparks: S.0.S. (Let the Music Play) – 4.712M (Total: 41M)

    Please keep in mind that each song has individual characteristics. Obviously, a song on a released album may be tending to move more albums than songs. A song that has just been released (e.g. “Undo It”), will still be burning through it’s dedicated fan base before airplay and sales show any correlation. Songs in certain formats sell singles better (e.g. Pop moves singles better than Country). Also, songs that have been out for a while (like “No Suprises”) probably already have people decided about whether or not they want the song (and the label isn’t pushing the song, it’s just living it’s life out). Finally, if an artist is in the midst of releasing an album this week (like Carrie) it can tend to support all the songs they have out there.

    Still, you can see some trends amongst the data points and I’m not ready to say that LLWD isn’t converting radio listeners into buyers yet.

  147. “What I meant was that it took time vs. ‘3’ ³ which debuted in the Top 10 Mediabase airplay and had a #1 Billboard debut.”

    Britney got to #1 on BB Hot 100 based on sales not radio play. How does a song “debut” on the Mediabase chart in the Top 10. That would mean the very first day it was played on the radio, it got over 5,000 spins.

    I’m not saying that didn’t happen but even for Britney it seems unlikely. If you mean it hit 5,000 spins it’s first week on radio, that’s possible. (A rare event but possible).

  148. Here are the Hot 100 Airplay numbers for 3 (I looked them up) for the first four weeks.

    Airplay
    Hot 100 Airplay
    84-49-25-16

    That means the first week the song debuted, it hit 84 on the Airplay (purely based on radio play chart). So it took five weeks for the song to break into the Top 10 on Pop. Which is a pretty big deal actually.

  149. What I meant was that it took time vs. ‘3’ ³ which debuted in the Top 10 Mediabase airplay and had a #1 Billboard debut.

    I think jpfan just disproved this assertion.

    I simply don’t buy into the criteria that one has to hit Top 10 in airplay and spin 5000 times a week within three weeks in order not to be considered a flop. I’m not sure why Kelly’s numbers were posted because they seem to prove what a lot of us have been saying (that reaching 5000 spins per week in three weeks is unusual).

  150. Somebody clearly thinks that a song has to go to top 10 in 3 weeks, so that person clearly disagrees with what some others think. That person retains the right to call Adam a HUGE flop if he fails to reach the Top 10 by November 20th.

    I judge a recording artist’s monetary success by sales units and concert revenue, not airplay. Airplay is only one way sell records and drive ticket sales. I judge a recording artist’s artistic accomplishments based on my own opinion of their entire body of work. IMO both Kris and Adam have the potential to achieve both monetary and artistic success. But neither has done either yet.

    Finally, I am huge, unapoligetic Adam fan but I have never claimed that Adam would even hit the Top 10 — my expectation is that FYE will crack the Billboard Hot 100 at #40 or better. If it doesn’t do that, I will consider the song, not Adam, a failure. [I also do not recall reading any comments by Adam fans thinking he would have a Top 10 hit. Most Adam fans know that he came in #2 and know that he is in genres that haven’t been commercially successful in the US for over 30 years — electro dance, glam rock and theatractical rock.]

    Similarly, I consider LLWD to be a failure — the song, not Kris.

  151. cilady: I saw that Sirius added LLWD just now as well. Since it’s not a traditional station, what kind of AI does that translate to?

  152. I’m not sure what cracking the BB Hot 100 at #40 or better means? Does that mean the first week it has to sell enough downloads combined with radio play or does that mean if it eventually hits that number, it’s a success.

    LLWD is doing okay, nothing great. But it’s too early to label it a failure. Based purely on radio play, it can’t be called a flop though. If it doesn’t sell more downloads, I think people will assume Jive “pushed” the radio play. That would be a fair assumption.

  153. Q3,
    I don’t know what to say about the idea of calling LLWD a failure, because it hasn’t sold as much as you wanted it to, especially since the song is still selling, there’s no end date, as far as I know, but especially because based on the airplay and the adds, the song is doing what it’s meant to do, get Kris exposure, and promote him and the album.

  154. Kirsten, I’m still confused about this:

    125: Kris Allen: Live Like We’re Dying- 7.517M (Total: 41M)

    135: Adam Lambert: Time for Miracles ‘“ 31K (Total: 188K)

    With total audience impressions of 41 million, LLWD is at 125, but with total audience impressions of 188 thousand TfM is only 10 spots below it? Shouldn’t LLWD be much higher on the chart reaching that many people?

  155. Girlygirl: 5 HAC adds so far today, including Sirius plus 3 other top 20 markets.

  156. Kirsten, I’m still confused about this:

    YOU! I don’t get none of this stuff. I just want a simple chart that say

    Good
    Fair
    Release a new single pronto

  157. Hey, I’m a Taylor Hicks fan. I still can’t get over the fact that my favorite idol of this year is getting radio spins at all! :-)

  158. I don’t know what to say about the idea of calling LLWD a failure, because it hasn’t sold as much as you wanted it to, especially since the song is still selling, there’s no end date, as far as I know, but especially because based on the airplay and the adds, the song is doing what it’s meant to do, get Kris exposure, and promote him and the album.

    This is what I’ve always thought – while LLWD might not be posting astronomical sales numbers it is selling at a seemingly steady rate. And unless Jive is going to pull the song so that no more sales are possible I don’t see how it can be labeled as a failure at this point.

    On the other hand, I think the Idols that seem to be in more trouble are Jason Castro and Allison Iraheta. The first time out for Jason didn’t go very well such that his label is resending his song. Allison was only picked up by 2 stations last week and so far hasn’t been picked up by anyone this week thought not all stations have reported for Top 40. But she is at a disadvantage in that her song doesn’t seem to be geared towards Hot AC, so while Kris is being picked up in both Hot AC and Top 40, Allison is not yet doing well in Top 40 and doesn’t have that Hot AC draw.

  159. Hey, I’m a Taylor Hicks fan. I still can’t get over the fact that my favorite idol of this year is getting radio spins at all!

    Hey always look onthe brightside :)

    Did Taylor get radio play?

  160. DIMYP got some airplay but almost nada for his first official album release, as far as I remember. I sometimes hear it in Shop-rite, LOL.

  161. With total audience impressions of 41 million, LLWD is at 125, but with total audience impressions of 188 thousand TfM is only 10 spots below it? Shouldn’t LLWD be much higher on the chart reaching that many people?

    Well, let’s do the math following that logic.

    LLWD sold 10K last week averaging about 120 on iTunes with a total AI of 41M. Therefore, since “No Surpises” has a total AI of 1.193 Billion, it should have been number one on the iTunes chart and moved 291K downloads. Yet it did not.

    Meanwhile, Carrie’s new song only had a Total AI of 328K yet it is at number 60 while Adam’s song just 140K AI less and it’s at 135!

    I think these strange anamolies can be explained by checking the long paragraph I included in my post. UI and TfM are still burning through their fanbases so radio play doesn’t come into play. Meanwhile, “No Surprises” has reached end of life. LLWD seems to be converting listeners into buyers at a reasonable rate when compared to other songs.

    Plus, Adam did get a fair amount of press last week for his album cover, so that may have helped too (well, it raised awareness at least). Airplay is not the only way to get your name out there. Ridiculous (Adam’s words) covers can do that too.

  162. With total audience impressions of 41 million, LLWD is at 125, but with total audience impressions of 188 thousand TfM is only 10 spots below it? Shouldn’t LLWD be much higher on the chart reaching that many people?

    Take into account, that 1. TFM sales are pretty much totally due to Adam’s AI fans, just as the 100,000 plus that Cook and Archie sold, as well as the 15,000 that Kris sold during LLWD debut week had more to do with American Idol than Audience Impressions. If you want to do a fair comparison, and Kris’ total numbers still might be weighted due to American Idol, compare Kris’ sales numbers to the numbers of the songs that surround LLWD on the airplay chart.

  163. YOU! I don’t get none of this stuff. I just want a simple chart that say

    Good
    Fair
    Release a new single pronto

    I’ve got an even simpler criteria, Squirrely. I LOVE both songs and have bought LLWD and I will buy FYE tomorrow. Done. They are hits to me ;-)

    (And I know that has nothing to do with anything but the two things that make me want to cry and pull out my hair are arguing statistics and/or semantics. They seem to produce a lot of circular discussion that often lead nowhere, IMO, of course.)

  164. Kirsten, I’m still confused about this:

    125: Kris Allen: Live Like We’re Dying- 7.517M (Total: 41M)

    135: Adam Lambert: Time for Miracles ‘“ 31K (Total: 188K)

    With total audience impressions of 41 million, LLWD is at 125, but with total audience impressions of 188 thousand TfM is only 10 spots below it? Shouldn’t LLWD be much higher on the chart reaching that many people?

    I’m not Kirsten, but there’s nothing confusing to me. The Itunes rankings are not based on total sales but an unknown formula combining sales from the last minutes, hours, weeks…
    For the most part, I suspect that TFM relatively high ranking is sustained by the high initial sales due to Adam fans buying it when it was released. It has been falling regularly since then while LLWD is occupying the same positions for some time now.

    Since apparently it won’t be released to radios, TFM will most probably continue to fall.

  165. But I won’t point out blatant passive aggressiveness, because that’s not what we do here at the blog.

    No need to point it out, it’s obvious and self-evident.
    It seems to me that there are several criteria to judge a single’s success and that each singer’s fans choose the criteria that best supports their favorite and discredits their non-favorite. Kind of interesting to read about but it seems pretty useless to me…

  166. Kirsten
    11/02/2009 at 3:18 pm
    Well, let’s do the math following that logic.

    Uh-oh. Here’s where I really fail. Don’t laugh. I may have been a straight A student but numbers still confound me. But, I digress…

    LLWD sold 10K last week averaging about 120 on iTunes with a total AI of 41M. Therefore, since ‘No Surpises’  has a total AI of 1.193 Billion, it should have been number one on the iTunes chart and moved 291K downloads. Yet it did not.

    Meanwhile, Carrie’s new song only had a Total AI of 328K yet it is at number 60 while Adam’s song just 140K AI less and it’s at 135!

    I think these strange anamolies can be explained by checking the long paragraph I included in my post. UI and TfM are still burning through their fanbases so radio play doesn’t come into play. Meanwhile, ‘No Surprises’  has reached end of life. LLWD seems to be converting listeners into buyers at a reasonable rate when compared to other songs.

    Plus, Adam did get a fair amount of press last week for his album cover, so that may have helped too (well, it raised awareness at least)

    OK, I do get all of that. So basically, a given chart really doesn’t tell the whole story. And that makes perfect sense. Thank you for going through that for me (and anyone else puzzled by the statistics). I appreciate it, because I have neither the patience or the logical mind to come up with all the research. My hat is off to you and folks like Q3 – regardless of the source of the data, the fact that you have access to it and can make heads or tails of it for us is awesome.

    Squirrely
    11/02/2009 at 3:11 pm
    Kirsten, I’m still confused about this:

    YOU! I don’t get none of this stuff. I just want a simple chart that say

    Good
    Fair
    Release a new single pronto

    LOL Squirrely! If only it were so easy! I bet the folks at 19 wish they had that chart too. ;)

  167. I judge a recording artist’s monetary success by sales units and concert revenue, not airplay.

    Reasonable standard. However, doesn’t that suggest using the “pure” sales charts (Hot Digital Songs, BB 200, BB Boxscore) rather than the blended Hot 100?

    I have no idea whether or not tepid reception of singles really reflects tepid reception of forthcoming albums, especially given all the confusion surrounding the iTunes pass and whatnot. But I do think the story won’t fully be told until at least three weeks after the album drop dates, and more fully, three months. If the album sells despite weak single sales, then the single wasn’t a flop, because it advertised the album. If not…

    (And I have no dog in the fight, FWIW. I’m just trying to read some tea leaves for 2010.)

  168. Eileen99:
    11/02/2009 at 3:03 pm
    cilady: I saw that Sirius added LLWD just now as well. Since it’s not a traditional station, what kind of AI does that translate to?

    Great news! But does Sirius relate to XM radio? I’ve been waiting and waiting to hear LLWD on the XM radio and no luck at all so far.. :(

  169. 152: Daughtry: No Surprise ‘“ 34.079M (Total: 1.193 Billion)

    What is the “sales” number?

    Q3: LLWD spin numbers do not look that good. A hit would be getting at least 5,000 a week after 3 weeks. For camparison, Kelly’s AG has been 10,000+, now falling.

    Kirsten: I simply don’t buy into the criteria that one has to hit Top 10 in airplay and spin 5000 times a week within three weeks in order not to be considered a flop. I’m not sure why Kelly’s numbers were posted because they seem to prove what a lot of us have been saying (that reaching 5000 spins per week in three weeks is unusual).

    My entire point was to put some perspective on the spins that LLWD is getting. And I clearly wrote a hit song would be getting about 5,000 spins a week. I didn’t say that a song that is getting less that 5,000 spins is a “flop” — I just hard to call a song that is getting 1,300 spins a week a hit.

    So which is it?

    — LLWD is getting “hit” song radio airplay and people are just not buying it.

    — Or it is not yet getting the kind of airplay a hit song needs.

    — Or LLWD is getting OK airplay and no selling like past Idol winners singles have. [I vote for this one — the airplay numbers are just OK and the sales are below Idol winner’s expectations.]


    But count me as confused.

    Regarding Britney and “3” — JPFan, I stand corrected. I should have looked it up first. But that said, I still don’t see what “3” has to do with LLWD? “3” debuted on the Billboard Hot 100 at #1. It is Britney’s third #1 hit.

  170. Valentin432
    11/02/2009 at 3:19 pm
    I’m not Kirsten, but there’s nothing confusing to me. The Itunes rankings are not based on total sales but an unknown formula combining sales from the last minutes, hours, weeks’ ¦

    LOL – “Unknown formula.” My point exactly. Wish we had more insight into how they calculate it.

    For the most part, I suspect that TFM relatively high ranking is sustained by the high initial sales due to Adam fans buying it when it was released. It has been falling regularly since then while LLWD is occupying the same positions for some time now.

    Oh, I totally agree with this. I am surprised TfM is anywhere on the charts. There is no question in my mind this was primarily fans, since no one else would have been exposed to it. I’m just confounded on LLWD’s numbers. Holding steady/occupying same position seems stagnant to me. I hear the song on the radio quite a bit now, I bought it, and I would think others are based on it’s position on the Mediabase charts. I just don’t understand why the audience impressions aren’t translating *as much as I’d expect* into sales. Does it have to do with the iTunes Pass (which i don’t have) including the single so those numbers aren’t included? (That argument makes the most sense to me…but again, not a numbers person.)

  171. I’m soooo happy this seems to be the consensus on this site. Because it means that for the next three weeks (after FYE goes for adds tomorrow) there will be blessed silence around here with nary a peep from anyone if Adam’s song fails to reach Top 10 in 3 weeks.

    I’m not exactly finding this consensus you are speaking of. There have been peeps willing to give LLWD and other Idol singles a chance to build, and others who beat the flop drum almost right off the bat.

    I can assure you, there is no consensus in the Adam fanbase about anything, much less that he is going to reach the Top 10 in 3 weeks. I’m sure one person probably said it, but I would say that most Adam fans do not think he is going to reach the top 10 in 3 weeks, or possibly ever. That’s wacked to think he would, frankly.

    Oh and I’m not one beating the drum of LLWD’s failure, either, I still have hopes it does well. At least it’s holding steady, and it won’t matter if the album is solid and does well. I will honestly say I’m not thrilled with how it’s doing with iTunes sales. Just honestly here. Yes yes I know that for new artists that would be great, and again, holding steady and not freefalling *cough TfM cough* IS good, so phew! but yes, I would like to see more sales for it. I’m also worried about what that means for Adam’s chances because LLWD does have a fair amount of airplay (yay!) but again, isnt doing great in sales (boo) so I worry about Adam’s need to get airplay AND translate that into iTunes sales.

    And as an Allison fan I really worry about her, because yeah, nothing there.

    So bottomline, I think there is no monolithic Adam fanbase and certainly not one that thinks Adam is guaranteed to succeed and that Kris has failed. I would venture to say that most Adam fans realize that he is going to have to get airplay and sales and that takes awhile and there is no guarantee to success there, even with good promotion.

    So yeah, expect future peeping. ;)

  172. standtotheright: Reasonable standard. However, doesn’t that suggest using the ‘pure’  sales charts (Hot Digital Songs, BB 200, BB Boxscore) rather than the blended Hot 100?

    I have no idea whether or not tepid reception of singles really reflects tepid reception of forthcoming albums, especially given all the confusion surrounding the iTunes pass and whatnot. But I do think the story won’t fully be told until at least three weeks after the album drop dates, and more fully, three months. If the album sells despite weak single sales, then the single wasn’t a flop, because it advertised the album. If not’ ¦

    JMHO — the sales units and revenue matter. The airplay charts are useful as a trend and forecasting tool, but don’t put money in the bank.
    And frankly, some songs and albums that peak at a low number on the charts sell a lot of units over time. So although I look for sales gains to forecast a song’s peak, I also look at rate of decline after the peak to forecast total sales.

    And for Kris, Adam, Allison and other recording artists, the real measure of finacial success is in album sales, not single sales. So I will reserve my judgment on overall success until December — unless one of them has an album debut like Clay had — which I strongly doubt will happen.

  173. jpfan
    11/02/2009 at 11:55 am

    Getting played on the radio so hopefully millions of people hear your music is a sign of success. That’s the best way to get fans and build your visibility leading to eventual sales/tours/etc.

    It sometimes works. Or you can put out an album and go on the road to support it and get sales/more tours/etc. I’m not sure that having one huge pop single is always best. Yeah, it will sell that single, but then you’re forgotten about, and it doesn’t do much to sell your album. I just don’t think that a pop hit is the be all, end all. If you have continuing success on other charts, it’s really moot.

    Yeah, Kris, I’m looking at you. Be who you are and don’t ever pine after that illusive “hit.” I can’t help but think that being true to your own style won’t serve you better in the long run.

  174. Hey, I’m a Taylor Hicks fan. I still can’t get over the fact that my favorite idol of this year is getting radio spins at all!

    And is featured on AmazonMP3 US homepage!!

  175. I really do not know how to read these figures .
    I guess I will just presume that the name listed above and by Kristen in the thread are the only ones making some kind of sales from their American Idol stint. There are about 14 names mentioned here .Considering that there had been about 204 or so who made it to top 24 or 36, it’s less than 7% of those who appeared on our TV screens that are still significantly receiving some consumer interest.

    Tough business… I would presume all of these guys have the talent to sing, and some personality to go with that…. golden connections for promotions and for getting good writers and producers are still important… well entertainment is a business -a huge network of deals and other business schemes. Gook luck to all in creating their own luck….

  176. snlw: I am clueless about Sirius. I only know it just showed up on the Add board for LLWD – it says the station is The Pulse, and the market says SiriusXM. Does that answer your question, because I certainly hope you aren’t excepting an intelligent answer from me about it (!).

  177. Q3, the number of spins issue came up because you said that a song that has been out as long as LLWD should be getting 5,000 spins by now, so people just pointed out the fact that even songs by established artists aren’t getting 5000 spins if they have only been out for 3 weeks. That number of spins is huge, and for a song to reach it, it will need to be recorded by someone who is not new to radio and someone who has a track record of releasing top 10 hits.

    LLWD spins don’t mean it’s a hit or a failure. There are good signs in its number of spins, which are on par with songs that came out around the same time, like One Republic’s “All The Right Moves,” in fact, LLWD was released a few weeks after that song, yet they are seperated by less than 40 spins on the HAC chart. We can also look at the fact that unlike songs such as Leona Lewis’ Happy, which was also released around the same time, LLWD isn’t losing any spins.

    Instead of lookng at the number of spins as indicating that LLWD is a hit or a failure, I think the numbers show that the song is on the right track, especially since the stations who have played it continue to increase their spins, and other stations continue to play and/or add the song.

  178. Holding steady/occupying same position seems stagnant to me.

    At least it’s holding steady, and it won’t matter if the album is solid and does well.

    Wouldn’t a song that is holding steady mean that there are new patrons for the song at all times, even if relative to the others which are holding steady at higher points on the chart it’s not as much in sales? The fact that the songs is holding in the 120 range would seem to imply, at least to me, that there are enough people still buying the song that it hasn’t gone into a freefall and fallen off the charts?

    This is a marathon, not a sprint, with the goal being a successful recoridng career. I would think a steady placement on a sales chart would be good – even if it’s not #10, or even #100. A steady 120 still means units are being sold.

  179. Truthiness
    I can assure you, there is no consensus in the Adam fanbase about anything, much less that he is going to reach the Top 10 in 3 weeks.

    The consensus referred to was that he wouldn’t reach the Top 10 in 3 weeks. Did not mention any consensus about what would happen after that …

    But the words “consensus” and “this blog” probably should not appear in the same sentence again. ;) Will make a mental note of that.

  180. Eileen99:
    11/02/2009 at 3:41 pm
    “snlw: I am clueless about Sirius. I only know it just showed up on the Add board for LLWD ‘“ it says the station is The Pulse, and the market says SiriusXM. Does that answer your question, because I certainly hope you aren’t excepting an intelligent answer from me about it (!).”

    Oh thank you thank you thank you Eileen99! You answered my question! The Pulse is the station I listen the most on the XM radio! Now I just hope they will spin it and spin it (eventually) like the way they spin Already Gone or Use Somebody! :) No matter when and what time I listen to The Pulse in my car, those songs will be played sooner or later..

  181. Wouldn’t a song that is holding steady mean that there are new patrons for the song at all times, even if relative to the others which are holding steady at higher points on the chart it’s not as much in sales? The fact that the songs is holding in the 120 range would seem to imply, at least to me, that there are enough people still buying the song that it hasn’t gone into a freefall and fallen off the charts?

    This is a marathon, not a sprint, with the goal being a successful recoridng career. I would think a steady placement on a sales chart would be good ‘“ even if it’s not #10, or even #100. A steady 120 still means units are being sold.

    Exactly. Stagnant would imply that the song isn’t selling at all. As I posted earlier, these are not the same 10,000 people who are buying the album. The point isn’t to be number one on the chart, it’s to keep selling units, nobody cares if they were sold during the first week or the twentieth week after the release, just as long as the units keep moving.

  182. Oh and I’m not one beating the drum of LLWD’s failure, either, I still have hopes it does well. At least it’s holding steady, and it won’t matter if the album is solid and does well. I will honestly say I’m not thrilled with how it’s doing with iTunes sales. Just honestly here. Yes yes I know that for new artists that would be great, and again, holding steady and not freefalling *cough TfM cough* IS good, so phew!

    I feel like I have just fallen through Alice’s Rabbithole.

    LLWD is selling steadily even though it is at #127 on iTunes and getting significant airplay.

    While TfM is in “freefall” because it is #135 on iTunes when it is being given away free by Apple iTunes and Sony (on a different page), and was never released to radio. Personally, I am trying to figure out who is buying it when it is available for free — with the 1080p movie video?

  183. LLWD is selling steadily even though it is at #127 on iTunes and getting significant airplay.

    While TfM is in ‘freefall’  because it is #135 on iTunes when it is being given away free by Apple iTunes and Sony (on a different page), and was never released to radio. Personally, I am trying to figure out who is buying it when it is available for free ‘” with the 1080p movie video?

    Here’s how I view this though – LLWD has been at this number for a while and has not shifted much while TfM started so high and just dropped. If TfM were to maintian it’s position in the 130s for an extended period I would consider that pretty steady sales similar to how I view LLWD – JMHO on the matter.

  184. Maybe the people are waiting to buy the whole album and just don’t buy singles. I know my family besides me wait’s for the whole album they don’t buy singles. And they don’t perorder albums. They go to target or Walmart the day the album comes out. Am the strange one in my family.

  185. Q3, when did the studio decide to give it away for free? It sure wasn’t the first week that it was released, when it shot up the charts to the top ten. Maybe it was the second week, after it started to free fall.

    But yes, LLWD, which has been ranked around 120 for three weeks now, is showing stable sells, while the song that was ranked at number 9 for 15 hours and then plummeted to 135 in less than seven days is in a free fall, at least according to the rankins on the mighty itunes chart.

  186. Squirrely
    11/02/2009 at 3:11 pm
    Kirsten, I’m still confused about this:

    YOU! I don’t get none of this stuff. I just want a simple chart that say

    Good
    Fair
    Release a new single pronto

    OMG Squirrely, I totally agree. I don’t get any of this stuff and I’m not sure I want to. I’m just gonna keep on enjoying the songs and hope my favorite gets to make many more and other people’s favorites get to do the same.

  187. I don’t buy singles either since I don’t have an IPOD(I love buying shoes too much..lol)…waiting for the album

  188. I think I just fell off my chair. A SoCal HAC station in Palm Springs just added LLWD. If I see the Seattle HAC station pop up, I may just have to go lay down.

  189. Q3: I said when LLWD first leaked I thought 19R/Jive screwed Kris by picking this for his single and that he deserved better. I still see no evidence that this song can be a hit for him. And I am still angry about the choice.

    Truthiness: Oh and I’m not one beating the drum of LLWD’s failure, either, I still have hopes it does well. At least it’s holding steady, and it won’t matter if the album is solid and does well.

    Got to agree with you both.

    Kris could still sell some albums this holiday season. There could be people who love him and don’t care a whit for LLWD. Many of them posting on this board.

    But, IMHO, what really boosts the, “oh, I like him” sales, are well-sung and dynamic TV appearances. Because the AI audience, is a TV audience. And as people cash in their iTunes holiday gift cards, they’ll go give another listen to something they liked. (40% of iTune sales are gift cards) And LLWD does not necessarily translate, even on TV, to dynamic.

    As someone who had her Kris Konversion to a big fat smiling “oh, yes, I like him” watching him sing on tour with such conviction, charm, and emotion, LLWD might as well have been issued from some stranger. YMMV. Can’t buy it. Even for solidarity.

    Will buy the album. Even if it, too, has 12 tracks that, for me, dawg, are more stops in snoozeville. Worryingly, the album snippet of “Can’t Stay Away” augurs another moment in Jive Velveeting their talent. Because live, even with wretched audio, at the Fin Zone thing, it felt, watching, that at last, Kris is back, bringing de funk even. Album snippet: soul-ectomy.

    Kris, Adam, & Allison all need all the people who enjoyed them on Idol and haven’t thought twice about them since to 1) hear they have a record and 2) give it a listen. That’s all they can ask to have happen from consumers. Give it a listen. And K, A, & A’s enormous advantage over everyone else who’d like to sell records, is people have heard of them, and will actually, listen. Even click on a link if reading online. If people don’t like what they hear, they won’t buy.

    AI’s massive audience isn’t just teenies who like all the songs to sound the same. 19 hasn’t quite figured how to turn the 25 million viewers into record purchasers. It there is no product that even hints at what people liked on the show, why would they purchase?

    Adam’s eclectic selections may help him surf all the tastes of the potential buyers. TV appearances with a range of performances can help this too.

  190. The point isn’t to be number one on the chart, it’s to keep selling units, nobody cares if they were sold during the first week or the twentieth week after the release, just as long as the units keep moving.

    It matters and some people care especially those who evaluate project plans. The earlier the songs are sold, the faster labels get their money back and the faster they can invest the money to the next song or album or tour. When we calculate the profit that a project makes, we don’t just sum up the total $$, we need to discount the $$ against time and interest rate to get the present value. If song A and song B will both generate $1000, but it takes A 3 weeks and B 3 months, most managers will choose to invest in A.

  191. FifthHouseSun, I have many problem with what you posted. First, if Allison, Kris or Adam are only appealing to the idol fan base, then they are going to fail. The idol fan base is nice, but it’s not going to help any one sell anywhere close to a million albums.

    Secondly, tv apperances are nice for getting a person’s name out there, and appealing to a mass audience, but they don’t hold a candle to actual radio play. That tv appearance is just a one off, but having a song played on a station 8 times a day, is invaluable. This is why radio play is such a huge topic as far as artists are concerned, and who labels will do anything to get their artists music played.

    Third, in regard to long term success, artists need to have their music connect with people who actually like it, and who actually listen to the stations that will play their music. You say that Kris’ music isn’t connecting with people, but once again, I think the fact that the single continues to sell, and the fact that the sales are stable doesn’t back up your opinion. Given the stability of the sales, and the fact that the spins have increased, especially on the stations that have been playing the songs for weeks, I think it’s a good guess that the song has found an audience. I’m sorry that you aren’t included in that audience, but that’s not unsual for AI. Many people don’t like the music that their AI favorite released, and there’s nothing wrong with that, just like it’s nothing wrong with Kris doing the music that he likes, instead of trying to please everyone in the AI fan base.

  192. I want to add some perspective to this discussion. Last year Crush by David Archuleta rushed up the top 40 charts and charted really well. Light On by David Cook took it’s sweet time climbing the charts. So after over a year. The spin count for Light On is 200,552 and for Crush is 198,770 last time I checked which was the other day. Crush has a higher AI because top 40 supposedly has more listeners but Light On has actually been spun more times. What does this mean? I think that songs behave differently in different genres and some songs are slower to catch on then others. We will see what happens because I also learned from last year that you cannot predict what will eventually happen with a song.

  193. babybelle32: Q3, the number of spins issue came up because you said that a song that has been out as long as LLWD should be getting 5,000 spins by now, so people just pointed out the fact that even songs by established artists aren’t getting 5000 spins if they have only been out for 3 weeks. That number of spins is huge, and for a song to reach it, it will need to be recorded by someone who is not new to radio and someone who has a track record of releasing top 10 hits.

    Not what I wrote. I wrote a hit song should be getting 5,000 spins — not that I thought LLWD should be getting 5,000 spins. And that is very different. My point was quite simply that LLWD is not getting the level of airplay a hit gets. And I define “a hit” as a song that hits the top 10 in sales units. Your definition may be different.

    And Kris won American Idol — he isn’t just any new artist. Shouldn’t LLWD get airplay similar to Cook’s LO?

    Here is a great chart of Cook’s LO sales and airplay — you can see the initial fanbase sales then the lift in sales that lags, but positively correlates to, the radio airplay.

    Clearly, many people believe that cummulative radio impressions will result in increased sales and that LLWD just needs more time and exposure before it sells. Before LLWD was released, I did not believe it was a good choice for Kris’ first single, but I also thought that Kris’ likability and “Idol winner status” would result in LLWD selling fairly well. Based on the sales to date, it looks like I was too optimistic in my original assessment.

    I remain more optimistic about Kris Allen [album] than I am about LLWD.

  194. Frankly, I think that BOTH LLWD and TfM are doing pretty much what Jive/RCA/19/Sony etc. expected them to do. WRT LLWD, it is getting decent airplay and is keeping Kris’ name in the public eye in advance of his album. It is never gonna be a huge hit, but is a moderate radio success that should generate interest in his album and prime the pump for future releases from the album. TfM was always intended to be a “bonus”, and was intended to promote the movie, not be the lead single from the album. It was not, and apparently was never intended to be, pushed for radio play (no radio edit was made). Neither Adam nor his people have ever indicated that they intended to push 2 singles into the market at the same time (it was only the fan boards that speculated about this, esp. after the Brian May gushing)…it may very well be that after the movie opens, and after the album drops, it may be pushed to AC and HAC stations; or maybe not (I happen to love the song and hope it has a future life)….

  195. LLWD has gotten 7 adds from stations today, only 2 of them being automatic adds, and all (including the Pulse — the Sirius FM station) classified as Hot AC

  196. Not what I wrote. I wrote a hit song should be getting 5,000 spins ‘” not that I thought LLWD should be getting 5,000 spins. And that is very different. My point was quite simply that LLWD is not getting the level of airplay a hit gets. And I define ‘a hit’  as a song that hits the top 10 in sales units. Your definition may be different.

    I don’t think that this puts your quote in a good light, since you also mentioned the time frame, and others brought up the fact that most songs, evne those released by big name artists, whether they are AI champs or not, will not be getting 5000 spins after just being out for three weeks. I believe that’s the point that people were making. So, when LLWD reaches 5000 spins, since as far as I can tell it’s not losing spins, so I’m not going to say it won’t reach this milestone, will you then say that it is a hit?

  197. Light On took quite some time to catch on even though it’s “out of the box” sales ran over 100,000 units. All of DC’s hits were slow, steady burners. Perhaps American Idol fanbases, including Adam, Allison, Danny and Kris, are not as large as they were in year’s past.

    I’m not too sure FYE is going to be a blockbuster. But that’s just my opinion. It’s alright for me, just like TFM.

  198. First of all, thanks to Kirsten, Q3, Jpfan, and all of you others who always bring us such interesting information. I don’t understand it all, and I may not always agree with your conclusions, but I do truly appreciate the time you take to educate us.

    Like Jersey, I too was a Taylor Hicks fan, so any radio play is always a bonus in my book :) Other than Kelly, I’ve never had an AI favorite get significant radio play. So, whenever I hear LLWD or Adam’s FYE on the radio for the first time, I’ll probably get pretty excited LOL.

    I saw Adam’s banner on my local Top 40 station today. It’s in their “on demand” section where you can stream the song. Not all of the songs in that section ever see the light of day on the actual station though. In fact, one of the top ranked songs that people have clicked on to listen to is Jason’s single. But, the DJ’s sure as heck haven’t played it yet.

    I like FYE, so I do hope it can get some traction on Top 40, but I guess that all remains to be seen. I know I’ve mentioned this before, but I believe that the iTunes pass for Kris is going to make his first week cd sales bigger than some are expecting. That went up for purchase while people were still on the finale high. I think those numbers are going to be significant. I’m no expert, so that’s just a WAG. I’ll be okay with you all laughing at me if I’m wrong :)

  199. I know I’ve mentioned this before, but I believe that the iTunes pass for Kris is going to make his first week cd sales bigger than some are expecting. That went up for purchase while people were still on the finale high. I think those numbers are going to be significant. I’m no expert, so that’s just a WAG. I’ll be okay with you all laughing at me if I’m wrong

    I think that you are absolutely right…i think that the itunes pass sales will ensure that kris will have strong first week album sales ….they can all laugh at me too

  200. I have many problem with what you posted. First, if Allison, Kris or Adam are only appealing to the idol fan base, then they are going to fail. The idol fan base is nice, but it’s not going to help any one sell anywhere close to a million albums.

    babybelle32, actually I was suggesting 19/AI/Jive/RCA/Sony whomever the alliance may be try to go outside the AI “fanbase”. Fanbase being people who read blogs, go to the tour. That leaves 25 million AI watchers, not in the bubble fanbase, but who like the show, know the singers already, and are people who could be very low-hanging record-purchasing fruit not getting much follow-up to their already perked interests.

    It was just idle theorizing about radical change-up. That perhaps a giant like AI could make. Like exploring ways for AI TV watchers to become record purchasers. Instead of turning AI contestants into radio format clones. It just feels like a large, primed market goes unharvested.

    Third, in regard to long term success, artists need to have their music connect with people who actually like it, and who actually listen to the stations that will play their music

    Connect, absolutely. But the correlation between listening to radio stations and long-term success has not been established. Radio seems interested in short-term flavor of the moment. (How are those Boy Bands doing now?) Millions of record buyers never listen to radio.

    My post was an idle speculation about something that I’ve found curious about AI. That they take TV stars, who develop gigantic name recognition and affectionate support — and creating that kind of interest and amassing that big a market ain’t easy — and try to change these wildly popular stars into something to fit a dying music industry and equally plummeting radio. Barry Goldwater, with whom I share little, but he was a very smart man, once admonished “Go hunting where the ducks are”. The ducks are watching TV. People watch AI because they like music. They like the competition. But they like hearing the singing. People don’t listen to radio for the same reason, they like music. And there’s nothing on radio they like. And this is not about old fogies. Rock ‘n Roll is older than that.

    AI has said they’re going to continue to focus on developing their interactive capacity. IMHO, that’s hunting where the ducks are. We have no idea how many vids and downloads they sold during the season. But look how many Glee sells. Could it be that many less? If, again idle blue-skying, technology can create something new and different, a way for the monster audience, primed, credit card toting public to be exposed to just a new single way earlier, and way easier, bypassing radio, that could help reduce the trying to force every AI contestant into the same formatting. Don’t know what. Some TV special every fall. “Idols: The New Music.” Or make it an online special. With click here on a web site to purchase. That would be tapping the already built-in market.

    Mere speculation.

  201. Q3

    And Kris won American Idol ‘” he isn’t just any new artist. Shouldn’t LLWD get airplay similar to Cook’s LO?

    Cook’s “Light On” went for first listen on Tuesday, Sept 23, 2008. Kris’s LLWD went for first listen on Monday, Sept 21.

    Today is Nov 2:
    Kris Allen:
    ‘Live Like We Are Dying’ : ^26 HAC (32), ^43 Pop (49)

    On Nov 3rd of last year:
    David Cook:
    ‘Light On’ : ^26 HAC (30), ^44 Pop (45)

    IDK, but it looks strikingly similar to me.

  202. “[I also do not recall reading any comments by Adam fans thinking he would have a Top 10 hit. Most Adam fans know that he came in #2 and know that he is in genres that haven’t been commercially successful in the US for over 30 years — electro dance, glam rock and theatractical rock.]” — Q3

    I must be reading a different blog. lol But, I do agree about the genre. Huge David Bowie, Queen, Jethro Tull, YES fan, but FYE cannot compare. Alice Cooper, my first rock love at a very young age, was amazingly theatrical, banned in the UK. The band put on a show.

    I love dance music, but there’s just something about FYE that keeps me from enjoying it completely. Fans of AI appreciate Adam’s vocal skills, but most of America won’t even give it a second thought. I need to purge myself of all things AI fandom so I can truly appreciate the music for what it is and not be influenced either way by opinions that might grate.

  203. For American Idol grads, it is a sprint, not a marathon.

    If you remove Breakaway from the equation, Idol CDs always sell less than their predecessors (I think Kelly’s third and fourth CDs have sold roughly the same amount, in spite of CD#4 having pop hits on it, which #3 didn’t). Even someone as clearly established as Carrie had her second CD sell about half of what her first one has.

    Daughtry’s first CD was a superhit. His second one isn’t selling nearly as well. It doesn’t matter if the Idolette has maintained a devoted fanbase (Clay) or pals around with Taylor Swift (Kellie). There is an inevitable and generally large decline in sales.

    If I’ve noticed this, presumably the music industry has as well.

    In addition, there’s a blockbuster mentality about the entertainment industry these days. Sure, it’s wonderful if something sells reasonably well and continues to sell reasonably well far beyond what’s expected. But mostly, the industry looks towards the things that sell big from the getgo. The opening weekend of a blockbuster movie. The first week of sales for a CD. The first day of sales for Dan Brown’s latest novel.

    Slow but steady doesn’t win the race for Idolettes. They’re on very short strings with 19 and/or their record companies. Every year there’s another batch to replace them.

  204. the fact that most songs, evne those released by big name artists, whether they are AI champs or not, will not be getting 5000 spins after just being out for three weeks.

    LLWD was released on Sept. 25, (I checked both ITunes and Amazon to verify that release date), so it’s been out for 5 1/2 weeks.

  205. Radio stations that added *For Your Entertainment* today.
    Way to go Adam, I really like the song makes my pants wanna get up and dance, makes my face wanna grin, LOL

    Station Spins LW Format Market Label Owner Market
    Rank Date/Time Added

    KLLY-FM Pub 0 Hot AC Bakersfield RCA Buckley Broadcasting Corporation 74 11/2/2009 12:09:00 PM

    KWYE-FM Pub 0 Hot AC Fresno RCA Peak Broadcasting 66 11/2/2009 12:32:00 PM

    WAYV-FM Pub 0 Hot AC Atlantic City, NJ RCA Equity Communications LP 141 11/2/2009 1:53:00 PM

    WPLJ-FM Pub 5 Hot AC New York RCA Citadel Communications Corp. 1 11/2/2009 12:36:00 PM

    This Page Is Set to Auto Refresh Every 60 Seconds

  206. Slow but steady doesn’t win the race for Idolettes. They’re on very short strings with 19 and/or their record companies. Every year there’s another batch to replace them.

    I’m new to watching all of this, but this makes sense to me. The record labels are out to make money. If they don’t get a good return on their investment, (the singer), they’ll move on to the next one in line for a contract.

    Slow and steady might be OK if the sales figures were OK, and I’m not sure what that would be. I think that LLWD has been selling about 10,000 each week for the last few weeks, and I thought that his total as of last week was around 72,000 total. Are those good numbers for 4 1/2 weeks (at that time) of sales? I have no idea, but I would guess not, from the record label’s point of view. The record companies are businesses, and want to recoup their losses and make money.

    I caught part of a PBS program on Bob Dylan last night, and they were saying that, back when Dylan was new to the music scene, there was less concern about sales, and there was an interest in what an artist was actually saying. I kind of think that those days are loooong gone. Now the emphasis is on sales. How much money can someone make, and how quickly can they do it? That’s unfortunate, because there are a lot of great artists who can’t make a living in music these days, due to the need to make lots of money for the record labels. But, it’s a fact of life, I think.

  207. Some TV special every fall. ‘Idols: The New Music.’ 

    Damn, they TOTALLY should do that. And then promote an updated version of the Season Pass for the winner & runner up: album, some sort of exclusive extra tracks, videos, get signed up for tour alerts!

    I liked your whole post, which did make me feel like the machine is still trapped in its old framework (which I guess we knew).

    Idol knows how to motivate the hard core fans who deeply intend to buy both the singles and idols from their guy. And they desperately seek radio to reach the casual fans and create new ones.

    But they kind of do a crappy job doing anything but trying to get on the radio at giving something appealing to the other couple of million who liked the TV Season but need to be converted or nudged.

    A Fox Fall Music Special of the most recent seasons biggies plus big stars from its past, throw in a couple of So You Think You Can Dancers (you know they would!). Awesome!

    Or offer more creative bundles tied to their TV power:

    Carrie special: bundle of Carrie’s singles performed on the show, the Cookwood duet, Lie and a video?

    During the new AI season: just as it kicks off – “Kick off the new Idol year by grabbing your faves from last year — Adam single & video, Kris single & video, maybe Mad World and Falling Slowly”

    Like the Body Shop, when they put a bunch of goodies in a basket with a ribbon and you spend $25 instead of just buying the $3 item you came in for!

  208. Cook’s ‘Light On’  went for first listen on Tuesday, Sept 23, 2008. Kris’s LLWD went for first listen on Monday, Sept 21.

    Today is Nov 2:
    Kris Allen:
    ‘Live Like We Are Dying’ : ^26 HAC (32), ^43 Pop (49)

    On Nov 3rd of last year:
    David Cook:
    ‘Light On’ : ^26 HAC (30), ^44 Pop (45)

    IDK, but it looks strikingly similar to me.

    Which makes the difference in sales striking as well.

    Idol Sales News ‘“ Week Ending 11/07/09 (posted on 10/28/09)
    138 Kris Allen ‘Live Like We’re Dying’  10,190 (2%; lw 9,980) Total: 72,953 (140)

    Idol Sales News ‘“ Week Ending 10/26/08
    35 David Cook ‘Light On’  33,598 (123%; lw 15,083) Total: 188,682 (77)

  209. BeckyMD
    11/02/2009 at 5:30 pm
    Which makes the jarring in sales striking as well.

    Idol Sales News ‘“ Week Ending 11/07/09 (posted on 10/28/09)
    138 Kris Allen ‘Live Like We’re Dying’  10,190 (2%; lw 9,980) Total: 72,953 (140)

    Idol Sales News ‘“ Week Ending 10/26/08
    35 David Cook ‘Light On’  33,598 (123%; lw 15,083) Total: 188,682 (77)

    Kirsten and BeckyMD – thank you both. This was the kind of thing I was asking about earlier. (Just got back to my desk.) Much appreciated – and wish I had the wherewithall to find the info myself!

  210. “Which makes the jarring in sales striking as well.”

    One thing that is different this year is the iTunes Pass availability. Correct me if I’m wrong, but people who wanted Light On last year had to buy it outright whereas people who bought the iTunes Pass this year (back in May/June), got LLWD without buying it. Now, I doubt that completely bridges the 116k gap, but I’m certain it’s a factor.

  211. schoolmama
    11/02/2009 at 5:11 pm
    Radio stations that added *For Your Entertainment* today.
    Way to go Adam, I really like the song makes my pants wanna get up and dance, makes my face wanna grin, LOL

    Station Spins LW Format Market Label Owner Market
    Rank Date/Time Added

    KLLY-FM Pub 0 Hot AC Bakersfield RCA Buckley Broadcasting Corporation 74 11/2/2009 12:09:00 PM

    KWYE-FM Pub 0 Hot AC Fresno RCA Peak Broadcasting 66 11/2/2009 12:32:00 PM

    WAYV-FM Pub 0 Hot AC Atlantic City, NJ RCA Equity Communications LP 141 11/2/2009 1:53:00 PM

    WPLJ-FM Pub 5 Hot AC New York RCA Citadel Communications Corp. 1 11/2/2009 12:36:00 PM

    Wow! I’m SOOOOO psyched to read that WPLJ added it to their playlist today. Now, just crossing fingers for Z100 to follow suit. Thanks for the good news – heading home now and will hunt around the radio for my song. ;)

  212. Allison is not yet doing well in Top 40 and doesn’t have that Hot AC draw.

    The fact that Allison’s single is NOT available for purchase means to me that we can’t be saying that it’s not doing well. I think that we need to wait until it’s actually out. (Yes, it was out for a day, or whatever that short period of time was, but then was pulled.)

    My single is also not doing well in the Top 40. Of course, I haven’t actually recorded one, so it’s not available for purchase…. :)

    I’m rooting for Allison to do well, and am worried that she’ll have a struggle to do well, but we need to at least let the single get released before we decide if it’s doing well or not.

  213. Here it the link to the David Cook Sales by Week vs. Chart position referred to in my earlier post:

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/7828012/David-Cook-Light-On-SalesAirplay-Trend-Graph

    Q3: And Kris won American Idol ‘” he isn’t just any new artist. Shouldn’t LLWD get airplay similar to Cook’s LO?

    Kirsten: Cook’s ‘Light On’  went for first listen on Tuesday, Sept 23, 2008. Kris’s LLWD went for first listen on Monday, Sept 21.

    Today is Nov 2:
    Kris Allen:
    ‘Live Like We Are Dying’ : ^26 HAC (32), ^43 Pop (49)

    On Nov 3rd of last year:
    David Cook:
    ‘Light On’ : ^26 HAC (30), ^44 Pop (45)

    IDK, but it looks strikingly similar to me.

    My comment about David Cook’s spins was in respone to a comment that said Kris was a new artist and shouldn’t be expected to get a lot of airplay — quoted right above the comment of mine you quoted — Idol Winners get airplay.

    ITA LLWD vs LO release dates and airplay on 11/2–11/3 are essentially identical.

    So where are the sales? Why isn’t LLWD getting sales gains from radio airplay?

    Light On: Released on iTunes Tuesday 9/30/08)
    Week 1: 109K
    Week 2: 31K
    Week 3: 15K
    Week 4: 34K [1 week after Radio add date]
    Week 5: 19.5K

    LLWD: Released on iTunes Friday 9/25/09
    Week 1 + partial week: 39K
    Week 2: 13K
    Week 3: 10K [1 week after Radio add date]
    Week 4: 10K

    Does Kris just have fewer fans than Cook or is LLWD not connecting with Kris fans? I prefer to believe the problem is LLWD.

    Also, regarding Kris fans waiting for the album, are they more likely to wait than Cook fans? And since iTunes is such a large part of Idol fans lives, wouldn’t they just download LLWD iTunes then just complete the album later?

  214. Q3, people that bought the iTunes pass got LLWD downloaded as part of the package already. It isn’t being delivered when the album drops – they already have it.

    In other words, they didn’t need to buy it.

  215. Kris has way fewer fans than Cook. It’s obvious when you compare the sales. In general S8 has underperformed the S7 singles released to date. I include TfM in the underperforming numbers since it sold way fewer than Crush’s first week sales.

    S8 fans spent mucho $ on tour tickets so why won’t they spend a dollar and change to buy a single. I don’t get it.

    I find it a complete mystery because the S7 and S8 tours were equally successful. (I confused people earlier talking about charts. Faux expert is correct ;)

  216. My comment about David Cook’s spins was in respone to a comment that said Kris was a new artist and shouldn’t be expected to get a lot of airplay ‘” quoted right above the comment of mine you quoted ‘” Idol Winners get airplay.

    Tell that to Taylor Hicks.

    I give up. I don’t even know what the argument is anymore. “Light On” is used as an example of how LLWD’s airplay is too small and when I show that they are virtually the same, it’s not relevant?

    Look, I think it’s unquestionable that Cook had a bigger invested fanbase coming out of Idol. That was obvious from the intial sales of TOML and the domination of the iTunes chart post-Idol. Sure, the Season’s Pass is a wildcard, but I’m not sure what it’s effect is.

    I think that people (Kris fans included) have been saying for weeks that the initial sales week was not super and to expect following weeks to be even higher to make up the difference when the first one showed the fan base was small is irrational. So, I honestly don’t know what people want from this song.

    It’s got good adds, it’s stopped falling, it’s trending up. It had a bad start, but things are looking up. We can’t ever erase that bad start. It will always be there.

    Yet Light On sold 19.5 k at the week ending Nov. 2, almost twice what LLWD is selling

    I must have missed Kris appearing on SNL this weekend which is what David Cook did during the same weekend last year.

  217. Here are the chart positions for TfM at 11:59PM [ end of day]

    10/19 #440
    10/20 #11
    10/21 #9
    10/22 #11
    10/23 #21
    10/24 #39
    10/25 #43
    10/26 #63
    10/27 #81
    10/28 #91
    10/29 #106
    10/30 #106
    10/31 #135 [TfM free on iTunes with MV]
    11/1 #136
    11/2 5:00PM ET #136

    There is no weighted average formula that makes that a free fall — it has been around #135 – #136 for about 60 hours, inspite of the fact that it is available free.

  218. Oh right. Cook had SNL. But Kris did have that show in the parking lot so it all equals out. ;)

    Yes, TfM is stabilizing at around 136. Hubba, hubba. Face it neither TfM or LLWD is setting any Idol sales records. It’s a little scary for the Idol franchise actually. FYE better do a whole lot better (and probably will.)

  219. Kris had 11 HAC adds today (8 last week), including Sirius XM and 3 top 20 markets. (#2 most added HAC song overall)

    Adam had 6 HAC adds today, including the NYC HAC station – no other top 20 markets. (#4 most added HAC song overall)

  220. Look, I think it’s unquestionable that Cook had a bigger invested fanbase coming out of Idol. That was obvious from the intial sales of TOML and the domination of the iTunes chart post-Idol. Sure, the Season’s Pass is a wildcard, but I’m not sure what it’s effect is.

    We are discussing the 3rd/4th week after its release, so fanbase its not so relevant. As we have seem with TFM, fanbase buys it in 1/2 weeks. Becky and I pointed that the relation sales/airplay is not the same for Kris and Cook.

    I must have missed Kris appearing on SNL this weekend which is what David Cook did during the same weekend last year.

    Cook had 33k the week before and 18 k and 21 in the 2 following. Then there was the week of the album release with 11 K and it increased to 20.3 k. So no, unless Cook went to SNL for several different weeks, it its not an explanation for the difference in the sales level.

  221. Cook >>>>>Kris. Is everybody happy? But then so far Archie is >>>>>>Adam at least in selling singles. But I think FYE is the better song to compare Crush too. Hopefully Adam’s fans will give it a big opening week of sales.

    I don’t get the big issue in proving Kris’ single sales are meh. I think they are. But the 11 HAC adds today guarantee a move up that chart.
    I think FYE will do better tomorrow on the Top 40 adds.

  222. I include TfM in the underperforming numbers since it sold way fewer than Crush’s first week sales.

    I don’t think of TFM as Adam’s first single since it was never released for ADDs, etc. I would compare FYE to Crush. Regardless, I think Crush is going to be tough to beat as I do think the Davids did have more buzz then Adam and Kris in regards to the general public. I think we can all agree that Adam has the most buzz when it comes to the media and music industry.

  223. In other news… It looks like Carrie will have a crossover hit with Cowboy Casanova! She got 5 HAC adds today!

  224. maturin
    11/02/2009 at 5:27 pm
    Some TV special every fall. ‘Idols: The New Music.’ 

    Damn, they TOTALLY should do that. And then promote an updated version of the Season Pass for the winner & runner up: album, some sort of exclusive extra tracks, videos, get signed up for tour alerts!

    I liked your whole post, which did make me feel like the machine is still trapped in its old framework (which I guess we knew).

    I agree with both of you and thought FHS’s post was spot-on. I also agreee with you about the bundling. Singles selling well is great, but the record companies want to ultimately bundle that into album sales. And for most people after the show is over, the Idols drop off the map for them and they move on and wait for the next show and batch. Some people are going to remain that way, but some of those people could be, as FHS said, low-hanging fruit that with a little more active reminding of the Idols, will still like them and may be induced to purchase their stuff.

    As for the rest, yeah I think LLWD didn’t perform the way I expected in sales. Despite my personally not liking the song, I expected it to be a bigger hit. But like FHS agreeing with me (yay!) I still think the album can do well and hope it will. And that’s probably because I’m thinking the album will have more stuff on it that is better and will appeal to more people. Or at least that’s my hope as a Kris fan who wants to like his music (CSA live sounded GREAT!) and who wants him to sell well.

    But that being said, yeah, I do find it inexplicable that LLWD isn’t selling more. Just odd, it’s getting good radio play, evidently on par with LO from last year it seems. Good reviews for the song. Kris won on the most popular show on America. His base seems to like the song, so it’s all odd to me that it isn’t sellling me. I find it worrisome for all three of my AI faves, because I agree, S8 thus far is underperforming to S7.

  225. So where are the sales? Why isn’t LLWD getting sales gains from radio airplay?

    Actually it does look like LLWD is gaining sales from radio airplay. You have to remember that David Cook debuted at a higher starting point, sales should then follow some kind of exponential decay curve if nothing else happens. So hypothetically, you might see sales numbers like this without any airplay (don’t take these numbers serious because they just for illustration) –

    Light On – 109K, 31K, 15K, 10K, 7K, etc.
    LLWD – 39K, 13K, 7K, 4K. (first week figures are a bit messed up because it is one and a half week, but just ignore it since I’m only doing it for illustration)

    Sales gains –
    Light On – 24K for week 4, 12.5K for week 5.
    LLWD – 3K for Week 3, 6K for week 4.

    The difference in the sales gain may be partially explained by the fact that David Cook has a greater fanbase. Those who are fans but don’t necessarily follow everything he does may not know that he had a single out, but buy the songs when they are reminded by hearing the song on the radio.

    Perhaps the song LLWD itself may be part of the problem, but I can’t really tell until more weeks have passed.

  226. There are probably lots of reasons why LLWD isn’t doing as well saleswise as Light On — ranging from the size of fanbases, to the popularity of the song, to the economy to the whole iTunes pass issue. There probably isn’t one clear reason to pin the success or failure of LLWD on.

    But it is still too soon to call LLWD a failure. It is still getting a fair amount of radio station adds, the spins have increased every week, it is moving UP the HAC and Pop radio play charts and it currently in the Top 50 on two of the Billboard charts (Adult Pop and Christian). According to last Wednesday’s sales chart thread, it had sold 72953 — which means it should pass the 100,000 mark before the end of November. Only inside the AI “bubble” would any of this even remotely be considered “flopping”. Most new artists would kill to be doing anywhere near as well.

    (And yes, I understand that if Kris hadn’t won AI, he wouldn’t have gotten nearly as much promotion for his debut single, and without said promotion, maybe the song wouldn’t be doing even this much in terms of sales)

  227. Truthiness : “I find it worrisome for all three of my AI faves, because I agree, S8 thus far is underperforming to S7.”

    This outcome didn’t surprise me at all since economy took a huge down turn near the end of Nov. 2008. A lot of people still yet to find a job currently. And Music sales in general are doing not as good too compared to all other years.

  228. Regardless, I think Crush is going to be tough to beat as I do think the Davids did have more buzz then Adam and Kris in regards to the general public. I think we can all agree that Adam has the most buzz when it comes to the media and music industry.

    I think Crush was lightning in a bottle, the right pop song at the right time. If there was a formula for figuring that out, every single would sell 3 million copies LOL. What that song did is a pretty big accomplishment for anyone – AI alum or not. Beating that number will prove difficult.

    I’m not really sure about the public buzz. In my real world life, after the show is over, I never hear anyone discuss the contestants. So, I’ve never been able to really assess anyone’s buzz. I’ve been hesitant about jumping on the Adam has huge media buzz bandwagon, but I have to say that the last few days are certainly pushing me in that direction.

    I tend not to make declarations about that kind of stuff, because I don’t typically have a good memory for all of the AI stuff (that’s what I have you guys for!). But, the Adam articles do seem to be coming fast and furious. So, I’m not going to argue with anyone who thinks Adam’s media buzz is unprecedented for an AI contestant. But, buzz does not always equal success, so who knows how much it will help.

    I don’t really think TFM & Crush are that comparable, because I think each song was meant to serve a different purpose. I’d agree that FYE is the more comparable song to Crush. Even with that though, those single sales Archie did will still be extremely difficult to equal.

  229. This outcome didn’t surprise me at all since economy took a huge down turn near the end of Nov. 2008. A lot of people still yet to find a job currently.

    I have to agree with that. Who really cares how your favorite AI contestant is doing when you have financial troubles. I think people who don’t see that as a possible contribution to the low sales are perhaps not personally affected by the economy. I will also add that the Davids were incredibly popular as a pairing. Adam and Kris didn’t have that buzz with AI audiences like the Davids did. However, I will say Adam has more buzz outside the AI audience then any of them.

  230. Also — and I hope a Cook fan can help answer this — did David do any touring with his band(s) prior to idol? I know he had been trying to make it in the business for awhile before he went on the show, but I don’t know whether he was just doing local gigs, or whether he had actually done any real touring. I’m thinking if he did any touring, he could have already had an invested fanbase prior to winning AI (even if a relatively small one).

    But I don’t know a lot about David C., so I don’t know if this is the case at all…

  231. Though LLWD hasn’t charted well in US, I’m just glad that it Is doing awesome in Singapore, Phillipine and New Zealand. Not sure what other countries that have released it currently.

  232. It looks like LLWD is doing it’s normal early week move on iTunes — it was at #125 this morning — it’s now at #115 (#46 on pop chart).

    From what I’ve noticed, it’s been doing this every week — moves up on Monday/Tuesday, then drops back again at end of week.

  233. I don’t get the big issue in proving Kris’ single sales are meh. I think they are. But the 11 HAC adds today guarantee a move up that chart.
    I think FYE will do better tomorrow on the Top 40 adds.

    I’m not trying to prove LLWD sales are meh. My point in this thread is that airplay alone can not be a measure for a single’s success. It may be a sign of future success (in the scenario when single will sell more after moving up in charts) but it doesn’t guarantee or equal to success. LLWD is not a good example to support the counter-argument because it didn’t show the positive correlation between increasing air spins and increasing sales.

  234. Also ‘” and I hope a Cook fan can help answer this ‘” did David do any touring with his band(s) prior to idol? I know he had been trying to make it in the business for awhile before he went on the show, but I don’t know whether he was just doing local gigs, or whether he had actually done any real touring. I’m thinking if he did any touring, he could have already had an invested fanbase prior to winning AI (even if a relatively small one).

    Cook “toured” with both Axium and MWK prior to Idol, but in both cases it was relatively small-scale and completely regional in scope. He also played solo acoustic gigs in the Tulsa and KC areas – but at most that amounted to a gig or two a month, probably playing to crowds of fewer than 20 people. I wouldn’t attribute any significant number of his sales to any kind of pre-Idol fanbase. Cook has joked that he struggled to sell 1000 copies of Analog Heart in a year of pushing it pre-Idol. He sold nearly 300x that in one week with his post-Idol debut album.

    If anything, I would guess that Adam, who had been a fixture in the Hollywood scene for years, came into the show with more existing fans. But I’m not expecting even a minute fraction of his debut week sales being credited to folks who saw Wicked or the Zodiac show.

  235. LLWD is not a good example to support the counter-argument because it didn’t show the positive correlation between increasing air spins and increasing sales.

    See, this is the reason I think I’m clueless about this stuff – because I actually thought just the opposite LOL. If we go with the assumption that the hardcore fans by during weeks 1 and 2 (although I’m not always 100% in agreement with that). Then, who the heck are the 10,000 people a week that are buying it now? I did think those people were coming from the spins.

    It’s certainly not from a tailgate in Miami. And, it’s not from seeing the song listed in any Top 10 lists or anything. I just don’t know what else it could be other than the airplay.

  236. girlygirl
    11/02/2009 at 6:43 pm
    There are probably lots of reasons why LLWD isn’t doing as well saleswise as Light On ‘” ranging from the size of fanbases, to the popularity of the song, to the economy to the whole iTunes pass issue. There probably isn’t one clear reason to pin the success or failure of LLWD on.

    But it is still too soon to call LLWD a failure. It is still getting a fair amount of radio station adds, the spins have increased every week, it is moving UP the HAC and Pop radio play charts and it currently in the Top 50 on two of the Billboard charts (Adult Pop and Christian). According to last Wednesday’s sales chart thread, it had sold 72953 ‘” which means it should pass the 100,000 mark before the end of November. Only inside the AI ‘bubble’  would any of this even remotely be considered ‘flopping’ . Most new artists would kill to be doing anywhere near as well.

    (And yes, I understand that if Kris hadn’t won AI, he wouldn’t have gotten nearly as much promotion for his debut single, and without said promotion, maybe the song wouldn’t be doing even this much in terms of sales)

    Okay, so I know Twitter followers are probably not the best measure of a fanbase, but Kris has double the number of followers than David Cook, whose “Light On” as you guys mentioned is doing better than LLWD. Maybe it’s because Kris has had an account longer than David has, not really sure, but it seems to me that Kris is liked enough by a decent number of people that he is pretty well known.

    I also don’t think there is anything wrong with LLWD as a first single. Not many people know that it’s a cover, and if they did figure it out, I’m not sure why that knowledge would deter them from buying a song. I buy cover songs from artists all the time. Heck, I buy whole albums of cover songs. I think LLWD has mainstream appeal and people who were not familiar with Kris during American Idol may be interested in the song. I do, however, think that some of the other songs on Kris’s album will do much better, because well, they are just better songs than LLWD.

    It seems like the more Kris is out there, the better he is perceived by people. I also like the decisions Jive has been making so far about where to market him. The Miami Tailgate was a puzzling choice at first for premiering some songs off the debut album, but the demographic at that party may not be what Kris is used to, so that may do him tremendous good in the future. The Seton High School performance was good for Kris as well, and then the interview with ESPN 760 was also reaching out to a different audience than what Kris is used to. So far, well-played Jive. I just wish the same zeal would be given to labelmate Allison.

  237. I was googling about trying to find the vote totals for an average week on Idol (you know, the numbers Seacrest always brags about) to demostrate how a small percentage of Idol viewers could control a hefty percentage of the votes, when I stumbled onto a really interesting Nielsen article from May 2008:

    http://www.broadcastingcable.com/file/6178-nielsenamericanidol.pdf

    Two statements leaped out at me. One was, “The average American Idol participant voted via text message 38 times in April 2008.”

    The other was that 34% of the Idol audience is 50 years and older.

  238. ^34% of the Idol audience is 50 years and older? Holy wow. That’s certainly interesting!

  239. Last year Billboard use to publish the actual number of streams every week that certain songs got on AOL Music. LO and both TOML recieved over a million listens within like a day or something (TOML I think broke their record for streams). This year at some point in June, I think it was about 3 weeks into Kris’ win BB decided to publish total stream numbers for the end of May/first week in June and NB had around 700,000 total so even the stream number differences were pretty different.

    If you look at where DC was on Amazon and his trajectory leading up to his release already Kris is seeing a VERY different pattern.

    Also, regarding Kris fans waiting for the album, are they more likely to wait than Cook fans? And since iTunes is such a large part of Idol fans lives, wouldn’t they just download LLWD iTunes then just complete the album later?

    Well thats what I did last year and this year but I don’t know how the majority of Kris fans are looking at things. I guess we’ll see when his first week numbers come in…

    When LLWD became available through the iTunes pass did it even crack the Top 100 albums? Because if it didn’t or hasn’t I doubt thats impacting thing much.

    Okay, so I know Twitter followers are probably not the best measure of a fanbase, but Kris has double the number of followers than David Cook, whose ‘Light On’  as you guys mentioned is doing better than LLWD. Maybe it’s because Kris has had an account longer than David has, not really sure, but it seems to me that Kris is liked enough by a decent number of people that he is pretty well known.

    Not only has Kris been on Twitter almost 2 months longer (Kris joined Twitter 6/25, David started 8/19) but considering Jordin has nearly 300,000 more followers than Daughtry, I doubt it means much. I follow tons of artists on Twitter I’ll likely never spend a dime on. LOL and not to split hairs, but 71k versus 115k is not double the numbers.

  240. Then, who the heck are the 10,000 people a week that are buying it now? I did think those people were coming from the spins.

    It’s certainly not from a tailgate in Miami. And, it’s not from seeing the song listed in any Top 10 lists or anything. I just don’t know what else it could be other than the airplay.

    LLWD: Released on iTunes Friday 9/25/09

    Week 3:
    airplay ^41 HAC (45)
    itune download 10K
    Week 4:
    airplay ^32 HAC (41), ^48 Pop (55)
    itune download 10K

    There were *increase* in airplay from week3 to week4, but sales stayed the same at 10K. When one variable moves but the other doesn’t move in the same direction, we say they are not positively correlated. This is just a general idea, because we only have a couple data points, too few to draw any statistically meaningful conclusion.

  241. ladymadonna

    ok, thanks. I was just wondering about that because I know there are bands that have decent fanbases due to (sometimes years and years) of touring, but may not have major label (or even any kind of) record deal

  242. Kris Allen
    19/Jive/JLG

    album: Kris Allen
    track: Live Like We’re Dying

    Season 8 Idol winner seeing huge love at Pop and Hot Adult w/ adds at: KCIX, KFYV, KLCA, KUDD, KZZU, WAJI, WSTR, WWMP, WXLK. LP streets 11/17. Marco Puig directed vid in post-production. GMA 11/17, Regis & Kelly 11/18, taping Ellen 11/19, Conan to follow. Radio promo events all of December. Tons of press.
    Mgmt: Simon Fuller, Stirling McIlwaine/19 Ent.

    http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/vibe/vibe.cgi?rank5

    Does this mean Kris is now being managed by Simon Fuller himself?

  243. It seems like the more Kris is out there, the better he is perceived by people.

    Call me uninformed! I never thought Kris was not perceived well by peeps. He was the guy next door and everybody loves. How much better can he be perceived. Everybody loves Kris.

  244. Though LLWD hasn’t charted well in US, I’m just glad that it Is doing awesome in Singapore, Phillipine and New Zealand. Not sure what other countries that have released it currently.

    LLWD has charted well in the US as well. Question is, how is LLWD selling with iTunes outside the US?

    If anything, I would guess that Adam, who had been a fixture in the Hollywood scene for years, came into the show with more existing fans. But I’m not expecting even a minute fraction of his debut week sales being credited to folks who saw Wicked or the Zodiac show.

    With Wicked, what? fans of chorus boy number 5? Adam was an understudy yes, and was lead a few times, but he was a chorus boy, so I don’t know what kind of fanbase he was expected to get from that beyond the hardest core of the theatre types. And Zodiac was, IIRC, he wasn’t really featured until last year, so not a huge chance to build up a fanbase from that. I could be wrong and am too lazy today to look it up.

    But I will say that I do compare David Cook and Adam as people who have been slogging for years to make it in the industry and were a bit older than the other guys, so maybe a bit more perspective from both. Which yeah, I think will probably does them in good stead.

  245. Mgmt: Simon Fuller, Stirling McIlwaine/19 Ent.

    http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/vibe/vibe.cgi?rank5

    Does this mean Kris is now being managed by Simon Fuller himself?

    I think that Kris is managed by Stirling McIlwaine who reports to Simon Fuller. Stirling is a very respected and high-powered person. He has done a great job with some other Idol alum.

  246. girlygirl:
    11/02/2009 at 6:54 pm
    “It looks like LLWD is doing it’s normal early week move on iTunes ‘” it was at #125 this morning ‘” it’s now at #115 (#46 on pop chart). ”

    Has it ever broken above #110 ever since it broke Top 100? Just curious as #115 is the best I’ve seemed and so this excites me.

  247. When LLWD became available through the iTunes pass did it even crack the Top 100 albums? Because if it didn’t or hasn’t I doubt thats impacting thing much.

    Isn’t the pass like a presale? Do presales chart before they actually download? I didn’t think it was actually eligible to be in the Top 100 at the time, but I could be wrong.

    When one variable moves but the other doesn’t move in the same direction, we say they are not positively correlated. This is just a general idea, because we only have a couple data points, too few to draw any statistically meaningful conclusion.

    Ah – I see. But, I was coming from it in another direction. To me, because the sales were exponentially better than the airplay in the first few weeks, I thought of it more as those numbers beginning to line up in a more traditional manner.

    I get that this isn’t a science, and I am pretty clueless about the music industry in general. (Also – I only took statistics in college because I had to – not because I wanted to LOL). But I do appreciate you all helping me to better understand your points of view.

    I guess all of the theories are just kind of guesswork in a way. I can see that’s there’s historical data, but a lot of the results seems pretty darn whimsical to me LOL. I’m back to the lightning in a bottle theory :)

  248. With Wicked, what? fans of chorus boy number 5? Adam was an understudy yes, and was lead a few times, but he was a chorus boy, so I don’t know what kind of fanbase he was expected to get from that beyond the hardest core of the theatre types. And Zodiac was, IIRC, he wasn’t really featured until last year, so not a huge chance to build up a fanbase from that. I could be wrong and am too lazy today to look it up.

    You’re right, Adam wasn’t featured in ZC until 2008 — and was notable but not by any means the “star”. But yes, I am I fan of chorus boy #5 Wicked LA touring cast. LOL!

  249. “I think that Kris is managed by Stirling McIlwaine who reports to Simon Fuller. Stirling ”

    I just thought that before it did not list SF and only listed Stirling. There was a discussion a while back on management and it was brought up that Kris & Chris had the same manager which would probably be Stirling for the day-to-day stuff.

  250. What? a fan of chorus boy number 5? Adam was an understudy yes, and was lead a few times, but he was a chorus boy, so I don’t know what kind of fanbase he was expected to get from that beyond the hardest core of the theatre types.

    My point exactly. Just because I said Adam’s pre-Idol fanbase was likely (based on potential audience-exposure) to be bigger than Cook’s doesn’t mean I’m saying either was significant. Quite the contrary. Both had been knocking on doors in their own way prior to auditioning for Idol, but I think it’s misguided to believe that any traction they made prior to the show would have any real impact on their post-Idol success. (And just to be clear – I’m not talking about any headstart they may have had in terms of performance ability, professionalism, or stage presence. I’m talking purely number of fans).

    Hell, I know Archie came into Idol with a core group of fans from the Star Search days. But again, I doubt those folks amounted to more than a drop in the bucket when Crush moved 166K its first week.

  251. alaadam
    11/02/2009 at 7:32 pm
    It seems like the more Kris is out there, the better he is perceived by people.

    Call me uninformed! I never thought Kris was not perceived well by peeps. He was the guy next door and everybody loves. How much better can he be perceived. Everybody loves Kris.

    Sorry, I didn’t mean to imply that Kris was not well-liked. What I meant to say was that he keeps expanding his fanbase the more he is out there. Jive’s choices to market Kris are doing him well. It couldn’t hurt to do a little bit more, but as I was initially suspect of Jive’s management capability of Kris, I gotta say I am pleased with the direction they are headed.

    Kris has also been booked alongside the Fray for pretty much the rest of December in these Jingle Ball parties they are playing. I don’t know if this has to do with Kris’s collaboration with Joe King of the Fray and their producer Mike Flynn, or if this decision was made by Jive to market Kris to Fray fans.

    Also, just curious: does anyone have any theories as to why LLWD is doing better in terms of spin on the East Coast compared to the West Coast?

  252. The Idols normally have managers for day to day works but normally, Simon Fuller is listed if he’s personally managing any of them. It makes sense to say Simon is managing Kris if McIlwaine roports to him. There’s no argument about that.

  253. Also, just curious: does anyone have any theories as to why LLWD is doing better in terms of spin on the East Coast compared to the West Coast?

    Because we have better taste on the Left Coast?

    Sorry, my bias about coasts and my not liking LLWD speaking and that I can’t help, but make a joke like 50% of the time. (don’t hold me to that percentage, I’m hoping to up it in weeks to come).

  254. The other was that 34% of the Idol audience is 50 years and older.

    Big, fat wallets routinely dismissed by media buyers because there’s no game scoring in it. But in keen evidence at the concert. I had no idea who would be in the audience. But it skewed older than I expected.

    It is one thing to purport — even though it’s not true — that the reason to go after the “demo” is if you grab their product purchase habits young you have them long-term, and really not perceptive to think that music purchasers over 40 are “set in their ways”.

    If there were a “spins = sales” hit formula, then, like Q3 noted the other night about Dr. Luke & Claude Kelly writing songs, that would be the only thing happening. There would be 50 hits, backed by insane payola to get on station, and that would be it.

    As they haven’t learned in Hollywood: There is no science or box scores or push here and get this result to creativity. Bad product by good talent doesn’t sell – 5257 movie titles could go here to prove that.

    The fall AI special will happen one day, maturin and Truthiness. When the audience slips to 20 million they’ll need a November sweeps boost. 2 years from now, the streaming competition on the web (or whatever it is then) will have broadsided radio one way. And the Vevo YouTube links, or however that’s evolved, or the Spotify fake-out or the NetFlixMusicVid downloads, or the whatever IPO dreaming next big thing technology is happening or just on “AI OnDemand Interactive” will hammer it another.

  255. Truthiness
    11/02/2009 at 8:01 pm
    Also, just curious: does anyone have any theories as to why LLWD is doing better in terms of spin on the East Coast compared to the West Coast?

    Because we have better taste on the Left Coast?

    Sorry, my bias about coasts and my not liking LLWD speaking and that I can’t help, but make a joke like 50% of the time. (don’t hold me to that percentage, I’m hoping to up it in weeks to come).

    Hahahaha I love LLWD and I live on the West Coast, but that’s pretty funny :D I dunno, I just always assumed Kris would have an easier time on the West Coast than the East Coast – no particular reason why.

    I’m kind of new to these Mediabase things, but it’s really interesting to read you guys’s insights on it. I’ve never followed radio airplay and charting for an artist before and it’s really neat to see how it all unfolds. :)

  256. I think all this talk of Live Like We’re Dying being a flop is interesting. I think it’s based on the assumption that his label was going for the typical top heavy pop sales that most Idols end up with. I’m not sure that’s the case.

    This is pure conjecture, but based upon Kris’ interviews, the dates of the scheduled tv appearances, and this HDD report about “tons of press” upcoming, I think they’re marketing him like they usually market a new pop/ rock act with little or no prior exposure. I also think it looks like promoting the album is top priority, not the single.

    Having worked in a music store, and around a bunch of reps, around the time Maroon 5 and Jason Mraz first came out, this just looks exactly like the way they handled them. Granted, there were other acts that got the same treatment and didn’t hit, but my point is, I think the assumptions people are making about the marketing strategy may be off. It’s just way too early to tell.

    If adds are steadily increasing, and we have reports of at least one major moving LLWD from overnight to prime time (KRBE), that’s a good sign. If the song has a steady trajectory up multiple charts with bullets in both, and no appearance of stalling, that’s a good sign. The album hasn’t even come out yet, and HDD seems to indicate that the album will get lots of pr at the time of release, and lots of holiday shows timed for album sales, that’s a good sign for the album.

    A lot of people don’t realize this, but well over 50% of music sales in the US, and more than 60% internationally, are still CD and other terrestrial formats. Digital increases exponentially every year, but it is still far from the standard. Just something to keep in mind, as well.

    I’m just saying, I think there are an awful lot of assumptions, and not a lot of evidence. As far as marketing strategy, let’s just wait and see.

  257. Also, just curious: does anyone have any theories as to why LLWD is doing better in terms of spin on the East Coast compared to the West Coast?

    Because we have better taste on the Left Coast?

    Sorry, my bias about coasts and my not liking LLWD speaking and that I can’t help, but make a joke like 50% of the time.

    LOL I was gonna post that, you beat me to it!

    LLWD is growing on me though. At first I really disliked it, but now I’m neutral on it.

    Btw I don’t think it’s possible to set a line for when a song is a flop, because it all has to do with perspective. Britney getting a song that peaks at #20 on the Hot 100 might be considered a flop, but IAMX having a song achieve that wouldn’t be a flop at all. I don’t think LLWD is a flop, nor is it a hit–it’s somewhere in between.

  258. erinthered
    If adds are steadily increasing, and we have reports of at least one major moving LLWD from overnight to prime time (KRBE), that’s a good sign. If the song has a steady trajectory up multiple charts with bullets in both, and no appearance of stalling, that’s a good sign. The album hasn’t even come out yet, and HDD seems to indicate that the album will get lots of pr at the time of release, and lots of holiday shows timed for album sales, that’s a good sign for the album.

    Hello erin! Just a question: What does it mean to move from “overnight to primetime”?

  259. Sorry if this was already answered elsewhere, but I’m curious if the sales of FYE through Adam’s website will count as regular sales on this current sales week, or as street violations next week after it goes up on iTunes. Any idea? Also wonder if Adam’s fans are waiting to buy it when it’s officially out on iTunes.

    Re: the Crush comparisons, IIRC Crush had a little more time to gain momentum on the radio (I think), but Adam definitely has unparalleled buzz and media attention. Should be interesting to see how he does, now that he’ll have a real 1st single out.

  260. LLWD is currently at #109 on iTunes! Woo Hoo! Well I know it’s not that exciting for many people but it’s for me anyway as it’s the 1st time I see it breaks #110 in a while! :) GO Kris!

  261. snlw
    11/02/2009 at 8:21 pm
    LLWD is currently at #109 on iTunes! Woo Hoo! Well I know it’s not that exciting for many people but it’s for me anyway! GO Kris!

    Yay! Really? I think that’s the highest it’s been since it broke the top 100. Any idea how it’s doing on the iTunes Pop chart then?

  262. Yeah good for Kris. I wonder what happened to make it jump like that. Am so happy I love LLWD and I want the song to do alot better.Tomorrow it goes up to perorder on i-tunes. And then Friday we get to see his music video so excited.

  263. Wow.. 268 comments all trying to prove why someone is better than someone else. This stuff gives me a headache. I wonder if fans of other non-ai artists do the same thing? Because I am a fan of a lot of different artists and I have no clue what their stats are for their singles, albums, or anything else. All I know is that I like them and I will continue purchasing the music that they create. As long as Kris makes music, I will be doing my part in supporting him.

  264. I think all this talk of Live Like We’re Dying being a flop is interesting. I think it’s based on the assumption that his label was going for the typical top heavy pop sales that most Idols end up with. I’m not sure that’s the case.

    I agree. Kris is not a pop act, Kris is a “soft” (hate that term) pop/rock act, and these days those guys thrive on HAC. I think comparing idols to each other is useful but you can’t take that alone. You have to compare Kris to other acts like him as well. Who are the people making a living right now sounding like him and what does success look like for them? The Fray, Carolina Liar, etc etc… get one pop hit an album if they are lucky, do very well on HAC and hopefully, on one of the rock radio formats. They tour a lot. They get their songs on TV shows and commercials. That is success for Kris’ type of act. He’s on track for that kind of career, I think.

    Adam seems to be trying for a pop career. His first song is in the same general vein as Gaga et al. So we will look for pop airplay with some HAC, lots of remixes that do well on the dance scene, red carpet appearances at mainstream pop stuff like MTV awards, marketing him overseas, gossip mag mentions lol, etc. His name needs to be on the lips of all the cool people. His singles need to sell a ton. He needs buzz and excitement. And he’s off to a great start.

    I don’t think one is better than the other. I think these are appropriate career goals for the types of artists they are.

  265. There were *increase* in airplay from week3 to week4, but sales stayed the same at 10K. When one variable moves but the other doesn’t move in the same direction, we say they are not positively correlated.

    But my calculation do suggest positive correlation, you just have to deduct from the sales numbers the figure you might expect if there were no airplay. These sales come from Kris fanbase from AI, and it will take a while before they cease to figure prominently in the sales figures, only then can you say that the sales may be overwhelmingly influenced by airplay or other promotional events.

  266. I so agree with you jmom376. Shoot until I became a Kris fan I never followed how any of the Idol’s I voted for who won was doing on the charts or how other people were buying there singles or album’s. It does kind of gives you a big headache. I don’t know how MJ’s been doing this like she does. I would have had a nervous breakdown. If I ran a website like she does. She really needs a gold medal, or somthing.

  267. jmom376 :
    11/02/2009 at 8:30 pm
    “Wow.. 268 comments all trying to prove why someone is better than someone else. This stuff gives me a headache. I wonder if fans of other non-ai artists do the same thing? Because I am a fan of a lot of different artists and I have no clue what their stats are for their singles, albums, or anything else. All I know is that I like them and I will continue purchasing the music that they create. As long as Kris makes music, I will be doing my part in supporting him.”

    jmom376 , I so agree with you!

  268. jmom376
    11/02/2009 at 8:30 pm
    Wow.. 268 comments all trying to prove why someone is better than someone else. This stuff gives me a headache. I wonder if fans of other non-ai artists do the same thing? Because I am a fan of a lot of different artists and I have no clue what their stats are for their singles, albums, or anything else. All I know is that I like them and I will continue purchasing the music that they create. As long as Kris makes music, I will be doing my part in supporting him.

    I don’t think people are trying to prove one is better than the other. No one can really argue that LLWD is doing amazingly on the charts or getting massive radio airplay. It’s doing well, IMO, but I think we can all agree it’s not doing as well as we would like it to do sales-wise. I think it’s interesting to see how Kris’s figures stack up against previous Idol winners; it definitely gives you a bit of insight into the whole process.

  269. ilovekrisallen39:
    “I so agree with you jmom376. Shoot until I became a Kris fan I never followed how any of the Idol’s I voted for who won was doing on the charts or how other people were buying there singles or album’s. It does kind of gives you a big headache. I don’t know how MJ’s been doing this like she does. I would have had a nervous breakdown. If I ran a website like she does. She really needs a gold medal, or somthing.”

    I agree with you as well ilovekrisallen39. I really never care much after idol seasons and Kris was the 1st who I truly follow and that’s how I found this site after AI8 finished!

  270. LOL I was gonna post that, you beat me to it!

    LLWD is growing on me though. At first I really disliked it, but now I’m neutral on it.

    See that’s the opposite of me, I was indifferent (after being disappointed) and now I dislike the song. Ahh, how different we all are, that’s so cool.

    Adam seems to be trying for a pop career. His first song is in the same general vein as Gaga et al. So we will look for pop airplay with some HAC, lots of remixes that do well on the dance scene, red carpet appearances at mainstream pop stuff like MTV awards, marketing him overseas, gossip mag mentions lol, etc. His name needs to be on the lips of all the cool people. His singles need to sell a ton. He needs buzz and excitement. And he’s off to a great start.

    Adam is obviously going for the pop career, on this we agree, but we disagree that isn’t what Kris is going for as well. Kris’s music is NOT indie or cool or underground, not the least of which is that he came from American Idol, so yeah, that indie or rock cred thang isn’t going to happen either. But beyond that, let’s talk about the actual music that Kris is creating, it isn’t some indie or underground stuff. By his own admission and LLWD and the songs he played at Miami and the clips, it’s ALL soft rock/pop stuff. Not a single solitary tune that would be considered otherwise. So not seeing as how Kris isn’t expected to sell like a pop artist either. Yes, a pop/SOFT-rock artist, but certainly not anything more than that at this point.

  271. FolkFan just posted some really interesting Mediabase stats at DCO that I thought folks here might be interested in seeing. Here’s a look at how the Idols stack-up so far on the 2009 YTD format charts. These rankings are based on total number of spins to-date since January 1, 2009. The calendar year obviously isn’t over yet so these rankings will change, but it’s interesting to see the staying power of some Idol songs released in 2008 or even earlier.

    CHR (Top 500 YTD)

    # ARTIST Title Spins
    9 KELLY CLARKSON My Life Would Suck Without You 164944
    35 JORDIN SPARKS Battlefield 102693
    43 KELLY CLARKSON I Do Not Hook Up 83516
    47 DAUGHTRY No Surprise 77164
    74 DAVID COOK Light On 45960
    90 KELLY CLARKSON Already Gone 34550
    99 JORDIN SPARKS One Step At A Time 30030
    141 JORDIN SPARKS No Air f/Chris Brown 16978
    157 DAVID ARCHULETA Crush 14524
    165 DAUGHTRY Over You 13546
    177 JORDIN SPARKS Tattoo 11964
    187 DAUGHTRY Feels Like Tonight 11176
    189 DAVID COOK Come Back To Me 11105
    197 DAUGHTRY It’s Not Over 10664
    218 DAVID COOK Time Of My Life 8816
    221 DAUGHTRY What About Now 8664
    226 DAVID ARCHULETA A Little Too Not Over You 8321
    232 DAUGHTRY Home 7789
    260 LEONA LEWIS Happy 5915
    261 ELLIOTT YAMIN Wait For You 5908
    281 ELLIOTT YAMIN Fight For Love 4471
    284 JORDIN SPARKS S.O.S. (Let The Music Play) 4339
    357 KRIS ALLEN Live Like We’re Dying 2234
    447 JASON CASTRO Let’s Just Fall In Love Again 1012
    450 DAUGHTRY Feels Like The First Time 995
    451 KRIS ALLEN No Boundaries 963

    HAC (Top 50 YTD)

    # ARTIST Title Spins
    5 KELLY CLARKSON My Life Would Suck Without You 88,799
    12 DAUGHTRY No Surprise 78,361
    17 DAVID COOK Light On 67,425
    19 DAVID COOK Come Back To Me 62,317
    21 DAUGHTRY What About Now 56,918
    41 LEONA LEWIS Bleeding Love 34,729

    AC (Top 50 YTD)

    # ARTIST Title Spins
    5 DAUGHTRY What About Now 58,672
    7 DAVID COOK Time Of My Life 48,952
    13 LEONA LEWIS Bleeding Love 34,923
    14 DAVID ARCHULETA Crush 33,881
    18 DAUGHTRY Feels Like Tonight 29,126
    22 DAUGHTRY Home 26,629
    33 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Before He Cheats 21,499
    35 KELLY CLARKSON Because Of You 20,281
    38 JORDIN SPARKS Tattoo 18,419
    42 ELLIOTT YAMIN Wait For You 16,635
    44 DAVID COOK Light On 15,803
    46 JORDIN SPARKS One Step At A Time 14,678

  272. ^^ Very interesting stats. Certainly does give a new perspective on who’s where in IdolWorld 2009. Thanks LadyM and FolkFan!

  273. Wow.. 268 comments all trying to prove why someone is better than someone else. This stuff gives me a headache.

    I don’t see this as people trying to prove one is better than the other. For me, this is like a continuing case study. We have some data and partial facts, we try to figure out the reasons behind and defense our reasoning. Next week when we have new data, we adjust our theories. It’s fun.

  274. Adam is obviously going for the pop career, on this we agree, but we disagree that isn’t what Kris is going for as well. Kris’s music is NOT indie or cool or underground, not the least of which is that he came from American Idol, so yeah, that indie or rock cred thang isn’t going to happen either. But beyond that, let’s talk about the actual music that Kris is creating, it isn’t some indie or underground stuff. By his own admission and LLWD and the songs he played at Miami and the clips, it’s ALL soft rock/pop stuff. Not a single solitary tune that would be considered otherwise. So not seeing as how Kris isn’t expected to sell like a pop artist either. Yes, a pop/SOFT-rock artist, but certainly not anything more than that at this point.

    Who said he was indie or cool? LOL. I was looking for HAC type rock acts. Maybe because I mentioned Carolina Liar? Okay, if they are too cool for you, remove them. But The Fray still holds. And they don’t get multiple pop hits these days. So yeah, Kris sounds like the guys who do well on HAC, okay on pop, and hopefully pick up a rock format. I just think those are reasonable expectations of success for who Kris is as an artist.

    I am not arguing that Kris is a Big!Hit!Act! All I am saying is that if what typically happens is that people who sound like him do well on HAC and okay on pop, then that is reasonable to expect for Kris. I guess instead of rock they are going to try Christian radio? I remember reading here that Jive had an adds date on CAC for Kris so that may be the strategy.

  275. Who said he was indie or cool? LOL. I was looking for HAC type rock acts. Maybe because I mentioned Carolina Liar? Okay, if they are too cool for you, remove them. But The Fray still holds. And they don’t get multiple pop hits these days. So yeah, Kris sounds like the guys who do well on HAC, okay on pop, and hopefully pick up a rock format. I just think those are reasonable expectations of success for who Kris is as an artist.

    I am not arguing that Kris is a Big!Hit!Act! All I am saying is that if what typically happens is that people who sound like him do well on HAC airplay on pop, then that is reasonable to expect for Kris. I guess instead of rock they are going to try Christian radio? I remember reading here that Jive had an adds date on CAC for Kris so that may be the strategy.

    Kris has been added to Christian adds, and okay cool, but that’s outside the point that Adam is trying to achieve pop-whatever and Kris isn’t. I maintain that Kris is also trying to attain pop-whateverness as well. And just as well because coming from AI, best to play to ones strengths, in whatever sub-genre that may end up being doesn’t mean the thrust of Kris’s promotion hasn’t been pop thus far, it has. And it will continue to be for the forseeable future, not the least is at Kris’s saying that what he was creating was POP/soft-rock.

  276. Interesting little tidbit. Six HAC stations added FYE to their playlist today. Do you know what all 6 have in common? They all previously added and are playing LLWD.

    I guess there are some people out there who believe there is room for BOTH Kris and Adam on the radio.

  277. but outside the point that Adam is trying to achieve pop-whatever and Kris isn’t. I maintain that Kris is also trying to attain pop-whateverness as well. And just as well because coming from AI, best to play to ones strengths, in whatever sub-genre that may end up being.

    Huh? I’m not arguing any Adam vs Kris points here. I don’t know what Kris is “trying to achieve”. I don’t care what he wants, I just know what he is, at least to my ears. People who sound like Kris are not pop staples these days, period. People who sound like Kris do well on HAC. So that is what I expect. And I expect Jive to work this song on Pop too because it is his first single and that’s what happens with first singles, especially for idol contestants. But Kris’ bread and butter should not be counted on to come from pop radio. Kris has to fit in with the Matt Kearneys of the world if he’s going to last. That is where his audience is.

    I am not thinking about Adam when I try to access Kris. I don’t care how they do compared to each other. That is for the hardcore fans of each to duke out, as far as I’m concerned.

  278. HAC (Top 50 YTD)

    17 DAVID COOK Light On 67,425

    AC (Top 50 YTD)

    # ARTIST Title Spins
    7 DAVID COOK Time Of My Life 48,952

    TOML is still going STRONG! And Light On doing pretty well too, for an ~older song. Good for David.

  279. tinawina, well thought out. I agree completely with your posts on this topic.

  280. 17 DAVID COOK Light On 67,425

    Seriously, if Light On can do well, I don’t see why TFM can’t eventually start spinning and selling in a month or so after the movie comes out. I think TFM and LO appeal to the same audience.

  281. Seriously, if Light On can do well, I don’t see why TMF can’t eventually start spinning and selling in a month or so after the movie comes out. I think TMF and LO appeal to the same audience.

    I don’t think so. For two reasons:

    1) I think RCA is gonna drop promoting TFM and focus on FYE from here on out, as they should.

    2) Also I think LO has a more contemporary sound than TFM.

    Js. I really like TFM myself, but I don’t think it’ll become a hit. I’d love to be proven wrong.

  282. Wow.. 268 comments all trying to prove why someone is better than someone else.

    No. Not really. Many of those 268 posts were just discussion points in general, not fan wars. You might want to try reading the thread again.

    Some of us don’t have a dog in this fight. I have no vested interested in whether Adam does better than Kris or vice versa. I like them both – but I don’t have any personal interest in either of their careers. Sometimes, we just talk because it’s interesting.

    I’m aware that sometimes the fan-warring gets annoying (it annoys the hell out of me too). But sometimes, you just have to scroll past it. To insinuate that every poster in this thread has something to prove, or to assume that everyone on MJ’s is some kind of raging fangirl with single-minded focus is a bit of a stretch IMO.

  283. # ARTIST Title Spins
    7 DAVID COOK Time Of My Life 48,952

    TOML is still going STRONG!

    I believe that Idol coronation singles live on in perpetuity on AC. Just a few months ago, I was channel surfing and heard a radio contest on my local AC station that had Kelly’s coronation single as the song to call in to win. LOL – How long ago was that released? By that measure, I’d suspect that TOML still has a few more years of shelf life on AC :)

  284. And Kris won American Idol ‘” he isn’t just any new artist. Shouldn’t LLWD get airplay similar to Cook’s LO?

    Radio stations don’t care about who won or didn’t win Idol. Stations aren’t going to rush to add Kris’ single just because he’s an Idol winner. That wasn’t the case for Light On either, and David Cook was an Idol winner who (unlike Kris) already had a successful radio single under his belt with TOML. Look at poor Taylor-he had very little radio airplay for his first post-Idol CD. The fact that he won American Idol didn’t mean squat.

    I haven’t seen anyone (including Kris’ superfans) suggest that LLWD is a hit at this point. If anything, it seems that some are anxious to declare LLWD a flop. In my opinion, it’s too early to call it a hit or a flop. The good news is that LLWD is making positive progress.

  285. “I am going to do the music that I like. I hope people like it. If they don’t, that’s OK, too.” – Kris Allen

  286. LLWD currently at iTunes #39 on pop and #108 on overall singles!
    TFM at #54 and #144 respectively. I’m sure FYE will do a ton better tomorrow.

  287. “That wasn’t the case for Light On either, and David Cook was an Idol winner who (unlike Kris) already had a successful radio single under his belt with TOML.”

    I am glad someone brought this up. Kris is really starting way back of any other idol winner. NB was not well received (it sucked) and dropped from the tour. It was not promoted after it was dropped and now it is not on his album. Kris did not have a bridge between the show and his album and no chance to add additional fans outside the AI bubble with an original song. Kris starting out slow is no suprise to me, he has to rebuild his base from the ground up.

  288. “That wasn’t the case for Light On either, and David Cook was an Idol winner who (unlike Kris) already had a successful radio single under his belt with TOML.”

    I am glad someone brought this up. Kris is really starting way back of any other idol winner. NB was not well received (it sucked) and dropped from the tour. It was not promoted after it was dropped and now it is not on his album. Kris did not have a bridge between the show and his album and no chance to add additional fans outside the AI bubble with an original song. Kris starting out slow is no suprise to me, he has to rebuild his base from the ground up.

  289. I am glad someone brought this up. Kris is really starting way back of any other idol winner. NB was not well received (it sucked) and dropped from the tour. It was not promoted after it was dropped and now it is not on his album. Kris did not have a bridge between the show and his album and no chance to add additional fans outside the AI bubble with an original song. Kris starting out slow is no suprise to me, he has to rebuild his base from the ground up.

    ITA-instead of people thinking of Adam and Kris as “co-winners,” perhaps they should be thought of as “co-runnerups” in regards to the launch of their post Idol career. TOML was so popular that people were ready to give Cook another listen when LO came out. One of the benefits of winning AI is to launch your “first” single on national TV with millions of viewers. Kris got stuck with a lemon and I guess there was no making lemonade out of that song.

  290. Hm, since Jive knew this about NoBo, why was it that they waited SO long to release Kris’s first major label single? Jordin’s coronation song did not get heavy radio play either. What was smart of Jive was to release her first single when her AI coronation song was going declining in spins. Jordin’s Tatoo dropped in August 2007. She had time to gain some traction and her single got great play on CHR. Why did Jive wait so long for Kris? There was nothing on radio for either Kris or Adam all summer. Archie had all of August and September to get radio play last year. It’s thoroughly confusing to me why they waited so long for LLWD.

  291. Idol comparisons are inevitable, regardless of whether they make sense or not, in terms of genre, timeframe, etc. Just to add some additional fun to the comparisons: the radio format charts are not static. To give an example:

    On 11/2/2008, LO had 937 published CHR spins, but it was only good enough for #44 on the chart, because at that time, #40 on the chart had 1095 spins.

    On today’s 11/2/2009 chart, 937 spins would be enough for #42 on the chart and would be very close to breaking into the top 40, as #40 on today’s chart has 957 spins.

    By 11/4, LO had broken the 1000 spin-mark, but it did not make the top 40 until 11/10 because of that high threshold for the top 40 at that time.

    On a similar note, CBTM’s peak spins on HAC were similar to LO’s, but LO outcharted CBTM because the HAC chart had stronger performing songs when CBTM was in the top 10 than when LO was in the top 10.

    So… you can compare different songs’ chart placements, but the comparisons can be flawed in a number of ways.

    ETA: To me, the concerns about SOS are less about how well it is doing on radio relative to other Idols (or artists in general), and more about the fact that, if Jordin can’t sell albums better than she has been doing, then she needs to sell lots of singles. To date, SOS has not been selling the album, and it isn’t selling itself. Given Jordin’s particular situation, SOS is not doing as well as it needs to do. I don’t like the song much, but for her sake, I hope that it starts to sell better.

  292. I am glad someone brought this up. Kris is really starting way back of any other idol winner.

    I don’t think this is the case. TOML’s radio success was far more the exception than the rule for Idol coronation singles. Kelly’s AMLT is really the only one other than Cook’s that had a sustained presence up to the release of a subsequent single. This graph has not been updated with chart positions for Kris’s NB, but compare the Hot 100 trajectory of all the other singles against AMLT and TOML. None of the other coronation songs can really be considered hits, and Kris’s line would look pretty much the same as Jordin’s, Carrie’s, Fantasia’s, etc.

    And I would agree that having a hit or two under your belt and thus being a proven “name” on radio can help garner airplay. But I think you can also make an argument that a song like LO was slower to take off than it might have otherwise (and was much-maligned for it) due to the fact that TOML was still charting and getting significant spins on three formats when the new single was released. So not having NB “in the way” could end up being a boon for LLWD. (Shrug?). I still think it’s way too early to make a call either way, but I would say I’m very optimistic about the song’s chances, especially on Adult Top 40, per tinawina’s great posts above. I think it’s a solid single and it’s going to do its job for Kris.

  293. I agree, LadyM. Regarding the Rainbow’s effect on things, I’ve been looking back at LO’s numbers from last year, and it was very slow to start up on HAC—even though HAC ultimately adopted it wholeheartedly, and to this day, it routinely drops down 90-100 spins a day on that format. You can actually see exactly when LO started to take off on HAC—that would be when Magic Rainbow dropped out of the top ten on HAC.

  294. “Mgmt: Simon Fuller, Stirling McIlwaine/19 Ent.”

    Holy shit! This makes me very happy. It reads exactly like Chris Daughtry’s management listing on his CD. Word for word. If this is correct then I’m feeling a bit more zen-like as far as Kris and 19 are concerend. Again cautiously optimistic.

  295. On the 19 site, it shows Kris, Allison, David C. and Daughtry recording for and being managed by 19 Entertainment. Adam’s read much differently. Perhaps it hasn’t been updated or Adam has chosen different management.

    edit: from 19R to 19E I find the alphabet soup very confusing. lol

  296. Just one other item of interest, well, two: #1 I forgot Carrie Underwood is listed recording and managed by 19E, also. #2 What I found most interesting is Kelly Clarkson is no longer listed on the site. I know her manager is Reba’s husband, but she still should be under RCA/19 Recordings. Correct? I swore I saw her picture on the site not so long ago. I’m confused.

  297. I don’t know what Kris is ‘trying to achieve’ . I don’t care what he wants, I just know what he is, at least to my ears. People who sound like Kris are not pop staples these days, period. People who sound like Kris do well on HAC. So that is what I expect. And I expect Jive to work this song on Pop too because it is his first single and that’s what happens with first singles, especially for idol contestants. But Kris’ bread and butter should not be counted on to come from pop radio. Kris has to fit in with the Matt Kearneys of the world if he’s going to last. That is where his audience is.

    I am not thinking about Adam when I try to access Kris. I don’t care how they do compared to each other. That is for the hardcore fans of each to duke out, as far as I’m concerned.

    Well I agree it shouldn’t matter in comparing them to each other. I wish that would be all the way around, but I know that’s impossible. sigh. Concentrating on Kris, well I hope you’re right and that Jive sees that concentrating on HAC is where it’s at for him. Not sure if that’s how he describes himself, not sure if that’s where their strategy is really lying though. Isn’t Z100 a pop station? And not sure about the other Jingle balls and interviews, are aren’t they at Top 40, not HAC stations? could be totally wrong or it could be a mixture (hope so). But agreed that Kris should be marketed less towards Top 40 and more towards HAC. Will that happen? Not sure and if so? not sure why not.

  298. Really late but Jive is working both Top 40 and HAC with Kris’s promotional events.

    Very first event he did off the tour was the Boston radio event which was at a HAC event. Then he debuted his single at z100-top 40 and WPLJ-HAC. They gave him adds in three different formats, including Pop and HAC.

    He’s been calling every HAC/Top 40 radio station for the past two weeks or so. The other day he did WDVD a huge HAC station in Detriot. Yesterday he called into WABB a Top 40 station.

    His next big event this weekend is Live in the Vineyard which is sponsored by a slew of HAC stations all across the nation. These stations have been advertising the event (and Kris Allen attending) for months.

    As for the Jingle Balls he is doing a mix of Top 40 and HAC. The ones in Chicago and Worcester are HAC.

    HAC is called HAC for a reason. Lots of them lean CHR anyways and there are quite a few artists on HAC who can easily crossover into pop and vice versa. I see Kris doing very well on HAC but I also see him doing well in Pop. It would be stupid for Jive to ignore pop when he has a CD full of pop/rock songs. Last I heard, pop/rock still sells and does well on the pop charts.

  299. I don’t think that tinawina is suggesting that Kris/Jive ignore (or are ignoring) pop. I think that she is suggesting that his core format will be HAC, with some songs crossing over to pop. Given how fickle CHR can be, and the fact that it specifically is less open to pop/rock in this era than it has been in past eras, having HAC as an alternative core format is a good thing.

  300. Thank you VAlilac! And if anyone gives it a listen, we’re discussing the sound over in yesterday’s headlines thread until MJ puts a new thread up!

  301. Hello erin! Just a question: What does it mean to move from ‘overnight to primetime’ ?

    Sorry this is late. Overnight shows versus primetime shows. Exactly what it says, basically. The classic radio model is to try out songs in the lower rated hours – overnight – and then move them to the prime time shows if they get traction – morning and afternoon drive time. Clear Channel stations have a slightly different model, but some (many?) non Clear Channel stations still do this. KRBE, a top 10 top 40 station in Houston moved Live Like We’re Dying recently, according to another poster.

    Also, my name is Erinn. No biggie, but for future reference.

    Sometimes, we just talk because it’s interesting.

    I’m aware that sometimes the fan-warring gets annoying (it annoys the hell out of me too). But sometimes, you just have to scroll past it.

    Well, said, SpenserJ. Also…HI!!

    I don’t think one is better than the other. I think these are appropriate career goals for the types of artists they are.

    I mostly agree with what you’re saying, tinawina, but not entirely. I do, however, very much agree with this statement! Different goals. Different approaches. No competition.

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