Monday Morning Mediabase Update – Up Until Midnight 10/25/09

Kelly gets another top 10 Pop song (and top 5 HAC) while Carrie notches yet another top 5 Country song. Kris Allen shows up on the Pop chart and moves into the top 40 of the HAC chart (almost top 30). Daughtry is holding steady with “No Surprises”, but his new song will be going for adds soon.

Watch for Allison’s new song going for adds this week!

Here are your Monday Morning Mediabase Updates for airplay as of midnight of 10/25/09 after the jump.

Brooke White:
“Radio Radio”: 50 AC (45)

Carrie Underwood:
“Cowboy Casanova” : ^5 Country (6)

Daughtry:
“No Surprise”: 4 HAC (3), ^9 AC (10)

David Cook:
“Come Back To Me”: ^15 AC (15)

Elliott Yamin:
“Can’t Keep on Loving…”: 43 AC (40)

Jordin Sparks:
“Battlefield”: ^20 AC (21), 24 HAC (21)
“S.O.S. (Let the Music…)”: ^41 Pop (44)

Katharine McPhee:
“Had it All” : ^39 AC (44)

Kellie Pickler:
“Didn’t You Know How…”: ^32 Country (34)

Kelly Clarkson:
“Already Gone”: ^5 HAC (8), ^10 Pop (12), ^21 AC (22)

Kris Allen:
“Live Like We Are Dying”: ^32 HAC (41), ^48 Pop (55)

Mandisa:
“He is With You”: ^21 CAC (23)

Phil Stacey:
“You’re Not Shaken”: ^14 CAC (17)

Ruben Studdard:
“Don’t Make ‘Em Like…”: ^26 UAC (29)

Note: Numbers indicate position on the chart while numbers in brackets indicate the position on the chart the previous

Upcoming Add Dates:
Pop:
Oct 27: Allison Iraheta: “Friday, I’ll Be Over You”
Nov 10: Jason Castro: “Let’s Just Fall in Love”
Nov 10: Daughtry: “Life After You”

About Kirsten 3046 Articles
Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.

174 Comments

  1. Anticipating the Questions:

    Adam’s “Time for Miracle’s” has not been listed for adds and got 8 spins last week (AC:3, HAC:3, Pop:2)

    Allison’s “Friday, I’ll Be Over You” will go for adds on Pop on Tuesday. It received 17 spins last week (all in Pop)).

    Kris’s “Live Like We’re Dying” went for adds two weeks ago and received 1323 spins (HAC:487, Pop:812, Rhy:24).

    Jason’s “Let’s Just Fall in Love Again” went for adds three weeks ago. It had 209 spins last week (all in Pop). Thre are re-sending it for adds on November 10th.

    Daughtry’s “Life After You” goes for adds on November 10th on Pop and already has 9 spins on HAC.

    Some songs never go for adds. Radio stations don’t have to wait for add dates to start spinning songs. Not every song is intended for radio.

  2. Jason’s ‘Let’s Just Fall in Love Again’  went for adds three weeks ago. It had 209 spins last week (all in Pop). Thre are re-sending it for adds on November 10th.

    What does it mean “re-sending”? Once it’s sent, why the need to re-send, unless it’s like a different cut or something? Or does it just mean a radio push or something? Curious.

  3. jpfan
    October 26, 2009 at 8:59 am
    Kelly gets another Top 10 Pop Hit. That’s really nice to see.

    Already Gone is seriously played every 10 minutes on one of my local pop stations :-) I like the song.

    Still have yet to hear LLWD in my area though.

  4. So, when is it conceivable to start seeing more of a Kris push on the itunes chart? It seemed by last night’s count it was still sitting pretty low, but with all the additional radio spins (especially last week), should we be seeing improvement on itunes as a result, say, starting this week?

  5. Kelly gets another Top 10 Pop Hit. That’s really nice to see.

    And the song is starting to get some really nice traction on iTunes. It’s moved into the top 18. This might be the sustained hit of the album. Too bad about “Halo” going for adds first or “AG” could have gone earlier and supported the album better. That second single was a bit of a dud for Kelly.

    What does it mean ‘re-sending’ ? Once it’s sent, why the need to re-send, unless it’s like a different cut or something? Or does it just mean a radio push or something? Curious.

    It’s a second radio push. Sometimes, radio stations don’t pick up the song the first time, so the label tries again. This time around, Jason is doing radio interviews which should help. Remember, add dates are really just a suggestion to the radio stations and it’s when the label makes a concerted effort to get them to play it.

    Why is the Monday media update going to be up until Midnight?

    It’s up to Midnight as of Sunday. People were getting all confused about the date on the chart (always Sunday), so I thought I would try to explain it better. It takes about 4-5 hours for Mediabase to generate it’s chart (and about another hour for AllAccess to update theirs). There are spins in the last 6 hours that have not been counted.

    BTW, it’s midnight PST.

  6. Kelly gets another Top 10 Pop Hit. That’s really nice to see.

    For me, I think it’s a really good song. And, Kelly keeps going on TV and singing the hell out of it. So, I’m not surprised it’s getting some traction. And yes, it is really nice to see it do well.

  7. Funny about “Already Gone”. See…Kelly is one smart chickie. She created a bit of a media stir with this song and now people are aware of it! She knows how to play the game….I often wonder if all her schtick about the record label at her concerts isn’t just to drive her fans to buy more so that they can stick it to the label. If she’s this smart I’ll give her all the KUDOS in the world. If not, she’s one lucky bitch who always seems to fall into the butter.

    Nice going Kelly…it’s good to see you still chugging along. Now, if you’d just try and look the part (nope, I didn’t really go there, did I?)

    And, I’m not dissing Kelly…I think she has and is doing amazingly well. She works hard and it shows. Looking forward to the AMAs.

  8. So, when is it conceivable to start seeing more of a Kris push on the itunes chart? It seemed by last night’s count it was still sitting pretty low, but with all the additional radio spins (especially last week), should we be seeing improvement on itunes as a result, say, starting this week?

    We are already seeing the results that the airplay is having on sales. Seriously, I don’t get the idolization of the itunes chart. Kris sales wouldn’t be as high as they are, if those who aren’t hardcore weren’t buying the single. His numbers have been stable, and really, we only have three weeks worth of numbers. Given the amount of time that the song will have been out when it hits its peak on radio, it will probably never have a huge week, but the song will keep selling, and that’s a heck of a lot more important than itunes rank, or a week where the song puts up a gaudy number, but then sales dry up.

  9. So, when is it conceivable to start seeing more of a Kris push on the itunes chart? It seemed by last night’s count it was still sitting pretty low, but with all the additional radio spins (especially last week), should we be seeing improvement on itunes as a result, say, starting this week?

    Songs from well-known artists always get a boost right when they are released (especially in advance of the album). Then, the songs fall back until they are supported by radio. Kris is still moving units in excess of his airplay (last week he was 312th in airplay or something like that). The combined iTunes charts we quote most often are combined.

    Kris saw a little boost last week during the early part of the week, but that’s probably the Idol Awareness Syndrome. Whenever one Idol (especially from the same season) does something, it raises the profiles of all Idols. People think “Oh, there is that guy from this season. What about that other dude I liked?”

    So, the short answer to your question is “I don’t know”. I haven’t made a study of when airplay starts supporting downloads. I mainly just watch things when the spins get into the higher (Kris is doing really well, but there is a big difference in spins between top 10 in Pop and top 50). If LLWD ends up getting to top 10 in Pop and is still in the 140s on iTunes, then I’ll be kind of stunned.

    I need to add this to the list of anticipated questions since I get asked it every week.

  10. Funny about ‘Already Gone’ . See’ ¦Kelly is one smart chickie. She created a bit of a media stir with this song and now people are aware of it! She knows how to play the game’ ¦.

    I also think it was extremely pro-active of her. If she’d said nothing, there would be a “Girlfriend”-style controversy where low-rumblings about song stealing would start and then turn into a huge deal that consumes the song. Then, all the “But Ryan and I wrote it first” would just sound like lame excuses. By acknowledging the similarities first and stating she didn’t want to release, there is no SCANDAL! to pin on Kelly. So, people can just like the song or not.

  11. We are already seeing the results that the airplay is having on sales. Seriously, I don’t get the idolization of the itunes chart. Kris sales wouldn’t be as high as they are, if those who aren’t hardcore weren’t buying the single. His numbers have been stable, and really, we only have three weeks worth of numbers.

    Well, I may be wrong and/or naive in this matter (very possible), but aren’t the primary ways for an artist to make money:

    1. Selling singles
    2. Selling albums
    3. Touring (and merchandising, etc.)

    Since only 1 is possible for Kris now, wouldn’t you want to be moving up on the itunes chart? Radio play is really just a means toward that end. And since the single was low before, but is now being heard a lot more via the airplay, shouldn’t that result in an eventual rise on the charts? I’m not saying it has to shoot to number 1 in a week, but it should conceivably follow that if the song is heard a lot, AND people like what they hear, it will start moving up a lot more on the charts. JMO – could be wrong.

  12. I love Already Gone – congrats Kelly! I wasn’t crazy about either of the other two songs (I really hated My Life Would Suck Without You – sorry!) but I’m so happy to see Already Gone doing well. It’s a great song for her.

  13. Well, I may be wrong and/or naive in this matter (very possible), but aren’t the primary ways for an artist to make money:

    1. Selling singles
    2. Selling albums
    3. Touring (and merchandising, etc.)

    The point is that the song is selling. There is no number that it has to hit on the itunes chart, nor is there a deadline where it has to sell X number of copies.

    The problem with obsessing over the itunes chart is that it changes every hour, there are no hard numbers to tell us what these rankings mean, and there is no rule book that tells us what time period these rankings cover. So, what is the point about always going on about it. I could see if you were talking about the chart that itunes releases once a week that shows the top 100 downloads for the week, or even if you were obsessing over the billboard chart, but that’s not the case.

    The song is selling, and even if we use the itunes chart, it’s clear that those sales have been stable. Obviously, if the song was not connecting with people, we would not be seeing this stability.

  14. Funny about ‘Already Gone’ . See’ ¦Kelly is one smart chickie. She created a bit of a media stir with this song and now people are aware of it! She knows how to play the game’ ¦.I often wonder if all her schtick about the record label at her concerts isn’t just to drive her fans to buy more so that they can stick it to the label. If she’s this smart I’ll give her all the KUDOS in the world. If not, she’s one lucky bitch who always seems to fall into the butter.

    To be fair, I don’t believe the Already Gone/Ryan Tedder controversy was created out of thin air. The Tedder production and backing track really makes it sound like every other Tedder hit, and Kelly has made a concerted effort to change the live arrangement to get rid of that annoying clapping track. And to her credit, it sounds awesome, because her voice just kicks ass on that song and it’s a really pretty melody. I’m glad it’s getting more traction now, but pop radio wasn’t that quick to embrace it when it was released, I think because of the controversy. My pop station latched onto MLWSWY right away, and then started spinning IDNHU right at its release before it was even done with Suck, but hesitated with AG. It was pretty frustrating– I don’t know how many times I would hear the DJ advertise her concert, bring up the controversy, and the proceed to spin an old KC song or frickin HALO after the Kelly plug. I dunno how much of AG’s success is attributed to the controversy, and how much is despite it. I guess it’s pretty anecdotal, but I do think AG took a little longer to climb pop than the other two songs… right?

    As for the schtick about the record label– while I definitely believe she’s being honest and genuine about it, I do think she realizes that to a certain extent that’s sort of her rep and image anyway, and fans are behind her… so yeah, I’m sure she knows it doesn’t hurt her “cred” to remind them of that or maintain that image at least.

  15. Kirsten, when will we see how many copies Adam’s TFM has sold?

  16. Kirsten,

    Do you find it odd that Jason’s single only got Pop spins? Did they go for adds the first time around on HAC and/or AC? It doesn’t really strike me as a Pop single, but I may not know what I’m talking about (!).

    Do you post the adds after they close (I can’t remember)…?

  17. Kirsten, when will we see how many copies Adam’s TFM has sold?

    Probably on Wednesday. Sometimes, we get press releases on Tuesday (but I don’t think that will happen in this case).

  18. Probably on Wednesday. Sometimes, we get press releases on Tuesday (but I don’t think that will happen in this case).

    k cool
    Hopefully TII will help it rise through the charts and get more airplay (maybe it will go for adds?)

  19. My pop station latched onto MLWSWY right away, and then started spinning IDNHU right at its release before it was even done with Suck, but hesitated with AG.

    That’s because IDNHU sucked rotten eggs and the program managers were reluctant to give another Kelly song a chance. Even Kelly’s amazing voice couldn’t make IDNHU a hit. That song just bogs down (like the rest of Katy’s recent singles..I personally think the only good song she’s had is H&C due to its hook).

  20. I’m glad to see Already Gone doing so well — beautiful song. I like it so much more than Halo. And yeah, I thought I Do Not Hook Up was just… not very good. I found the chorus jarring — wasn’t a good song to sing along to. What happened to the Already Gone video with the skeery string instruments? Did that ever get any traction on VH-1?

  21. Do you find it odd that Jason’s single only got Pop spins? Did they go for adds the first time around on HAC and/or AC? It doesn’t really strike me as a Pop single, but I may not know what I’m talking about (!).

    I don’t remember if they also went for HAC adds. I imagine they are focusing their efforts on Pop right now.

    Do you post the adds after they close (I can’t remember)’ ¦?

    I’m adding the adds as a new feature now. We’ll see if I keep it. I randomly posted them in Headlines threads before so it’s tough to find them now.

  22. Then, all the ‘But Ryan and I wrote it first’  would just sound like lame excuses. By acknowledging the similarities first and stating she didn’t want to release, there is no SCANDAL! to pin on Kelly. So, people can just like the song or not.

    So I guess that means she’s smart!

  23. Kris is still moving units in excess of his airplay (last week he was 312th in airplay or something like that).

    This is why I don’t get why people keep harping on itunes. Check Kris’ sales numbers against others who are getting the same amount of airplay, and then the arguement that people are hearing the song, but not buying the single doesn’t hold up.

  24. That’s because IDNHU sucked rotten eggs and the program managers were reluctant to give another Kelly song a chance. Even Kelly’s amazing voice couldn’t make IDNHU a hit. That song just bogs down (like the rest of Katy’s recent singles..I personally think the only good song she’s had is H&C due to its hook).

    Can’t argue that. IDNHU was like all the bad Katy Perry songs outside of H&C and I Kissed a Girl. I only liked H&C but IKAG was at least upbeat and poppy. Someone got me her CD, and I was like UGH. Decided NOT to go to her concert based on the album.

  25. Thanks, Kirsten. The station that hosted Kris for an acoustic concert with David Gray (Mix in Boston) fianlly added LLWD a few minutes ago!

  26. It will be interesting to see how many stations add Allison’s song. Seems like the song is not getting any attention so far and in this case adds date may be the way to help it a bit. But without many spins, how many stations will even care for it? It needs more promo.
    The banner for Kris song has been on Allaccess for two weeks now, maybe Jive could replace it with one for Allison. When does she start radio promo?

  27. It will be interesting to see how many stations add Allison’s song.

    I’m surprised by the lack of promotion of Friday as compared to LLWD.

  28. See’ ¦Kelly is one smart chickie. She created a bit of a media stir with this song and now people are aware of it! She knows how to play the game’ ¦.I often wonder if all her schtick about the record label at her concerts isn’t just to drive her fans to buy more so that they can stick it to the label.

    No, I don’t see Kelly as the devious sort or a game-player. I think she’s a straight shooter, genuine and from the heart. I doubt that she was trying to get attention for the song, it’s just an unintended consequence. Kelly’s one of the most natural, honest people in the business, imo. Not a schemer.

  29. I think Allison’s song will be a hit on radio and on charts, as soon as it goes for adds and starts getting played. I also think she’ll be promoting it when that happens. And can’t wait to see it.

    I’m glad they’re going to do a second radio push with Jason’s single, especially since the cd won’t be released until January. It’s a catchy song, and should get some radio play. Fingers crossed. It’s a bit over-produced, kind of hits you over the head like a mallot, but it’s still a fun song.

  30. It will be interesting to see how many stations add Allison’s song. Seems like the song is not getting any attention so far and in this case adds date may be the way to help it a bit. But without many spins, how many stations will even care for it? It needs more promo.
    The banner for Kris song has been on Allaccess for two weeks now, maybe Jive could replace it with one for Allison. When does she start radio promo?

    Exactly – I feel like so much weird stuff happened with Allison’s song. It seems like an eternity since we first heard the version online, and then it made the brief, incorrect appearance on itunes and amazon, and was promptly yanked. That strategy seemed really weird, because it just confused everyone. Hopefully more of a marketing push will happen for it.

    Check Kris’ sales numbers against others who are getting the same amount of airplay, and then the arguement that people are hearing the song, but not buying the single doesn’t hold up.

    I wasn’t really arguing that people are hearing it but not buying it. In fact, I think the radio play is great and I was more curious as to the typical time lag involved with having a huge bump in radio play and the effect on the itunes charts. It seems that’s not an easy question to answer though (makes sense – lots of variables at play). But beyond that, I wasn’t really saying anything else.

  31. I’m surprised by the lack of promotion of Friday as compared to LLWD.

    I think Jive wanted to wait until Allison could start doing radio promotions, before they really pushed the song. This is what I think Atlantic should have done with Jason. I never understood why they didn’t better coordinate his song being released for sale with his promotional appearances.

  32. leome
    The banner for Kris song has been on Allaccess for two weeks now, maybe Jive could replace it with one for Allison. When does she start radio promo?

    I think FIBOU needs to do more on radio before they can make a banner ad for it. The usual ads have information like stations that have added early, stations that are playing the single a lot, mediabase/bds chart numbers, sales on iTunes, etc.

    With FIBOU they can’t really do any of that. I’m not sure if any stations have added it. The spins she has seems to come from one station and 17x is not that many spins. It’s not charting anywhere, and they took the song down from iTunes/Amazon so they don’t have any sales numbers to use.

    I think there will be a banner, maybe as early as this week depending on the adds she gets tomorrow.

  33. I’m excited for Kris and all the Pop spins he’s getting. That’s great.

    Odd to me that only Pop is spinning Jason’s song, as it doesn’t seem like a natural fit. But, good for him!

    I TOTALLY do NOT get what’s up with Allison’s single. Why is it no longer for sale, and when will it be again? Really stupid, imo.

    Yay for Kelly, however and for whatever reason that it happened. :-)

  34. My two local CT top 40 stations alternate Al.ready Gone with BEP all the time.

    I really like Already Gone, Kelly deserves all the success she is getting, IMO

  35. The station that hosted Kris for an acoustic concert with David Gray (Mix in Boston) fianlly added LLWD a few minutes ago!

    That’s my station! Yay!

  36. Kirsten
    October 26, 2009 at 9:21 am

    Songs from well-known artists always get a boost right when they are released (especially in advance of the album). Then, the songs fall back until they are supported by radio. Kris is still moving units in excess of his airplay (last week he was 312th in airplay or something like that). The combined iTunes charts we quote most often are combined.

    So why all the predictions of gloom for Adam’s TFM and fanbase from you? His song came out, got to #8 on Itunes. I think Kris’s got to #27, maybe and has been in the 100s since then. The youtube of the TFM video has 600,000+ hits. Kris’s audience impression from spins is much greater than that, right? TFM has not been added for airplay yet, if it will be. I guess, I’m just curious as to why the different standard for predicting success? Kris isn’t a new artist, he won the biggest talent show on television. Shouldn’t that play into his recognition and sales in some way?

    Also, hasn’t Kris’s sales % declined by week? I thought week 2 was a decline of over 40% and week 3 was a decline of over 20% from week 2. I can understand the 2nd week decline, that seems to be the norm based on your observation of 1st week sales being highest. But the week 3 decline seems odd. In addition, while you say that he is ranked higher than those with the same number of spins, are those songs that were released around the same time or are those songs that have been out for a while and declining in airplay?? Are you looking at total sales or itunes rank for your analysis?

    This is my first foray into all of this and I’m really curious. Thanks for any insight you can provide.

  37. I’m also curious about the effect and lag of radio spin on sales, so I did a dig on Light On. Below is data on radio spin and digital download during 10/20/08 – 1/26/09. What I notice is that at least in this case sales was not quite correlated to radio spins until LO charted around #10 in HAC and #20 in Pop (11/30/08). After that, radio chart position was stabilized in this period, and while the absolute sales numbers were still not stable, the relative sales chart position kept increasing. So my guess is that there is a threshold in radio spins (which may be an indicator of certain population penetration) after which sales will catch up with radio airplay.

    Of course this is just how I kill time in a boring conference call, not a serious research. There are so many variables impacting both spins and sales. I’m sure I could be totally off.

    10/20/08
    David Cook: ‘Light On’ : ^39 HAC (52)
    77 David Cook ‘Light On’  15,083 (-51%; lw 30,966) Total: 155,084 (43)

    10/27/08
    David Cook: ‘Light On’ : ^30 HAC (39), ^45 Pop (51)
    35 David Cook ‘Light On’  33,598 (123%; lw 15,083) Total: 188,682 (77)

    11/03/08
    David Cook: ‘Light On’ : ^26 HAC (30), ^44 Pop (45)
    66 David Cook ‘Light On’  19,469 (-42%; lw 33,598) Total: 208,151 (35)

    11/09/08
    67 David Cook ‘Light On’  18K (-7%; lw 19,469) Total: 226K (66)

    11/17/08 (Album drops)
    71 David Cook ‘Light On’  21,127 (17%; lw 18,089) Total: 247,367 (67)

    11/24/08
    David Cook: ‘Light On’ : ^16 HAC (19), ^32 Pop (35)
    98 David Cook ‘Light On’  11,286 (-47%; lw 21,127) Total: 258,653 (71)

    11/30/08
    67 David Cook ‘Light On’  20,300 (80%; lw 11,286) Total: 278,953 (98)

    12/08/08
    David Cook:’Light On’ : ^11 HAC (12), ^26 Pop (31)
    60 David Cook ‘Light On’  19,262 (-5%; lw 20,300) Total: 298,215 (67)

    12/15/08
    David Cook: ‘Light On’ : ^11 HAC (11), ^24 Pop (26)
    48 David Cook ‘Light On’  21,290 (11%; lw 19,262) Total: 319,505 (60)

    12/22/08
    David Cook: ‘Light On’ : ^11 HAC (11), ^23 Pop (24)
    46 David Cook ‘Light On’  26,918 (26%; lw 21,290) Total: 346,423 (48)

    12/29/08
    David Cook: ‘Light On’ : 11 HAC (11), ^23 Pop (23)
    42 David Cook ‘Light On’  82,489 (206%; lw 26,918) Total: 428,912 (46)

    01/05/09
    David Cook: ‘Light On’ : ^11 HAC (11), ^23 Pop (23), ^30 AC (90)
    39 David Cook ‘Light On’  57,735 (-30%; lw 82,489) Total: 486,647 (42)

    01/12/09
    David Cook: ‘Light On’ : ^9 HAC (11), ^24 Pop (23), ^27 AC (30)
    43 David Cook ‘Light On’  37,714 (-35%; lw 57,735) Total: 524,361 (39) **NOW GOLD**

    01/19/09
    David Cook: ‘Light On’ : ^7 HAC (9), ^23 Pop (24), ^30 AC (27)
    17 David Cook ‘Light On’  67,995 (80%; lw 37,714) Total: 592,356 (43)

    01/26/09
    David Cook: ‘Light On’ : ^6 HAC (7), ^22 Pop (23), ^28 AC (30)
    25 David Cook ‘Light On’  49,488 (-27%; lw 67,995) Total: 641,844 (17)

  38. CindyM, I’m not Kristen but:

    Also, hasn’t Kris’s sales % declined by week? I thought week 2 was a decline of over 40% and week 3 was a decline of over 20% from week 2.

    Spin aside, the important thing to notice is that Live Like We’re Dying’s sales decline has gotten smaller over the past weeks. I think it’s an indication that Kris is reaching his bottom as the single is gaining in popularity. I expect an even smaller decrease this week but I wouldn’t be too surprised to see that his sales have increased.

    On that note, it will be interesting to see the sales of TFM next week once the majority of Adam’s fanbase is taken out of the equation. Unlike Kris’s single, it is not being supported by radio play and I am not sure if it ever will. The song is feels dated and at over four minutes it’s almost too long for radio. The chances of getting a radio edit are slim because this isn’t his first single.

  39. Llwd is selling only 10k, of course it will decrease slower. It’s very different from selling 70 k in one week and 50 in the next. Keshas til tok went for adds one week before llwd and with a 7 million impression was already 12 in iTunes. Llwd has a 6 mi audience afaik. Kesha is not exactlywell known. So, airplay is no miracle, it has different impact on different songs.

  40. Thanks for bringing the LO numbers, BeckyMD. Hadn’t seen them in a while, and it’s pretty interesting perspective to see them now. In hindsight, LO sold pretty well, or at least somewhat in direct proportion to the pop radio spins it got. Comparing CBTM’s sales tells me that doing well on HAC does not drive sales compared to the way Pop will, even if you only make it to Top 20 on Pop. CBTM never broke into Top 40 on Pop, and as such, never got those multiple weeks above 30 or 40K. Pop radio sells singles, and hitting the low 20s helps. I guess that’s not news, but it’s just interesting to see so plainly. DC could’ve really used another pop hit… but alas, RCA chose CBTM, so that was not to be.

  41. and at over four minutes it’s almost too long for radio.

    Wow…I just looked at time runs for some high ranking singles and 4 plus minutes isn’t unusual. This isn’t the 60’s when songs were 2 minutes because industry insiders decided that was the length of time any music listener could focus their attention. Check the history…true fact.

  42. Also, hasn’t Kris’s sales % declined by week? I thought week 2 was a
    decline of over 40% and week 3 was a decline of over 20% from week 2.

    Yeah, and even if the decline shrunk a little, I would never call the current sales “stable”. He’s not at the stable point yet and I think its too early to say people are connecting to the song. If a song drops down to 300 and sells 3,000 a week you can still argue that its selling.
    LLWD could end up being a sales monster a couple of months from now but right now I see nothing wrong with pointing out its off to a slow start.

    The Kesha song is an interesting comparison. I’ve been watching that a little because I think it went for adds shortly after LLWD and its zooming up airplay charts AND iTunes. It’s at #34 on Pop, but #8 on iTunes. Now thats a song thats connecting to people.

  43. but right now I see nothing wrong with pointing out its off to a slow start.

    I don’t think there is anything wrong with saying that an Idol hasn’t found their groove, or their audience. Too many people are prancing on tiptoe trying not to allude to the fact that Kris didn’t come out of the gate like a house a fire. And maybe, like Jordin, he’ll make up for it in the end…I mean she was the 10th best selling Artist for singles in 2008.

    And, though it is tremendous fun to look at radio spins I don’t think it tells us much about an Artist except their music is inoffensive enough to play when you are driving a car or hammering away at a job site. I’d sure like someone to find a survey that shows, given the choice, how many people would listen to radio as opposed to a shuffled I-pod (I-phone, whatever) or a stereo unit playing their chosen CDs.

    Based on what is played on the radio I also believe that the core demographic is probably pretty low on the economic ladder (radio is pretty much free) and that ’causes a lot of disparity between good music and a lot of the stuff that radio plays. It’s always about the lowest common denominator…Rap and Hip hop, anyone.

  44. Thanks for the info, Kristen. Always interesting.

    I almost thought they were going to play Brooke White on my local AAA station, but it was just a commercial for Radio Heard Here. They didn’t actual play her single. Still somewhat exciting, as I like her a lot.

    Here’s the info, for any Brooke fans out there.

    http://www.radioheardhere.com/newmusicspots.htm

    As for “Already Gone,” I like it quite a bit. They play it frequently on my Hot AC station.

  45. Too bad Already Gone came after Halo, otherwise it could have gone much higher on charts.

  46. Kris probably sold to the Idol fanbase the first 10 days. Now he’s selling to newer fans based on radio play. His modest sales are consistent but as radio play increases, they need to move up as well. That will give the song more buzz.

    Kris’ spins are slowing down on Pop. It looks like he’ll be another guy from Idol who gets his songs played mostly on HAC.

  47. I think LLWD’s drop has stopped and given more air airplay it might repeat the trajectory of LO. That will take a month or longer. However the fact Kris debuted so many new songs so early makes me wonder if Jive plans to drop the second single within weeks. If so, radio spins will switch to the new song and LLWD would not sell as many as it potentially could.

  48. Live Like We’re Dying has a higher A.I. than many other singles mainly because of Z100. The most played song on Z100 gets an A.I of over 6 million. If you look at the songs surrounding LLWD on the mediabase chart, LLWD has double and in some cases triple the amount of audience impressions of its peers. And in most cases if you look at where LLWD is compared to songs near it on the charts, it selling more more than them as well.

    I’m not sure why a slow rise up the pop charts is considered a bad thing especially if the single in question is rising.

  49. Based on what is played on the radio I also believe that the core demographic is probably pretty low on the economic ladder (radio is pretty much free) and that ’causes a lot of disparity between good music and a lot of the stuff that radio plays. It’s always about the lowest common denominator’ ¦Rap and Hip hop, anyone.

    I’m sorry, but are you saying that people who listen to the radio are pretty low on the economic ladder and poor people don’t know good music (hence the reason why radio doesn’t play it?).

    Because, if so, I beg to differ. Completely.

  50. I thought I read it that way too. Stupid, poor people decide what’s on radio while smart, rich people buy good music to play on their Ipods.
    So I guess the more radio play Adam or Kris’ get, the dumber and poorer their fans are. They should sell their music for more money though. That will keep the rabble away for sure. ;)

  51. Kirsten
    I’m sorry, but are you saying that people who listen to the radio are pretty low on the economic ladder and poor people don’t know good music (hence the reason why radio doesn’t play it?).

    Because, if so, I beg to differ. Completely.

    I agree. And since when is Rap, Hip Hop and good music mutually exclusive?

  52. So LLWD has had a higher A.I. than one would expect from the number of spins it is getting. If you look at the songs surrounding LLWD on the charts, LLWD has double and in some cases triple the amount of audience impressions of its peers.

    I’m not sure why a slow rise up the pop charts is considered a bad thing. Especially if the single in question is rising.

    I’m so confused. From the first quoted paragraph I’ll draw a conclusion that LLWD performed worse than it seemed if we only look at the spins. It got not only more spins but also more AI than the peers around it in the chart.

    But from the second paragraph, it seems LLWD has a promising future. Not that I don’t agree with that, but it contradicts the evident laid in the first paragraph…

  53. They should sell their music for more money though. That will keep the rable away for sure. ;)

    LOL FINALLY some explanation for why their singles cost $1.29 instead of $.99. I had NO idea! ;-)

    I think someone was typing stream of consciousness upthread a bit (and stepped in it…) Heh.

  54. Based on what is played on the radio I also believe that the core demographic is probably pretty low on the economic ladder (radio is pretty much free) and that ’causes a lot of disparity between good music and a lot of the stuff that radio plays. It’s always about the lowest common denominator’ ¦Rap and Hip hop, anyone.

    Corporations are to blame for the “sameness” of what’s played on the radio.

    And, in the US, most of the best original music we’ve ever produced has come out of some of the poorest areas.

    Rap and Hip Hop music can be innovative and extremely creative. I certainly wouldn’t characterize the whole genre as appealing to the “lowest common denominator”, which I guess in this instance means poor people?? Some of us in the higher tax brackets enjoy it too.

  55. I agree. And since when is Rap, Hip Hop and good music mutually exclusive?

    I know. There is a lot of talent and innovations on display in Rap/Hip Hop.

    And, in the US, most of the best original music we’ve ever produced has come out of some of the poorest areas.

    Rap and Hip Hop music can be innovative and extremely creative

    I agree completely.

  56. BeckyMD
    I’m so confused. From the first quoted paragraph I’ll draw a conclusion that LLWD performed worse than it seemed if we only look at the spins.

    Yes. And I don’t see any contradiction in that conclusion. If the single continues to move up the airplay charts it will reach a point where the A.I. doesn’t seem so inflated.

  57. Based on what is played on the radio I also believe that the core demographic is probably pretty low on the economic ladder (radio is pretty much free) and that ’causes a lot of disparity between good music and a lot of the stuff that radio plays. It’s always about the lowest common denominator’ ¦Rap and Hip hop, anyone.

    there’s some paradigm shifting that needs to start occurring here tess, with all due respect… you’d be surprised who comprises the core demographic for top 40 radio, as well as for hip hop and rap… the assumption made regarding the socio-economic status of those listening to radio is off, most glaringly so regarding the appeal of rap/hip hop… the irony of the matter is that while most hip hop artists in the United States are African-American city-dwellers, the majority of consumers of the music are whites living in the suburbs. yep, megan and marty in suburbia usa are what’s keeping the rap and hip hop nation afloat, and driving a lot of what is heard on top 40 radio… with mommy and daddy’s money, or what’s left of it… i find this data intriguing as well…

    The global hip hop community: twenty four million people between the ages of 19-34, from a range of nationalities, ethnic groups and religions. Their collective spending power is $500 billion annually in the U.S. alone.

    http://www.audiblehype.com/diy/entry/the_no_bullshit_guide_to_hip_hop_demographics_part_one/

  58. So why all the predictions of gloom for Adam’s TFM and fanbase from you?

    Could you show me the predictions of gloom I have made? I haven’t been gloomy at all. IMO.

    I merely pointed out that the first week sales weren’t as good as Cookie and Archie managed last year, so that’s an indication about the size of his current Idol fan base (which is smaller than I thought). I’ve always maintained that one needs to sell outside of one’s Idol fan base. That is just the starting point.

    And I’ve also said the heights that TfM met are good. They just aren’t precedent setting to me, but they are good. Meanwhile. I’ve openly said that Kris’s numbers are not good (they aren’t a total travesty, but higher numbers would be more encouraging), but that he can get fans outside of his fan base. It’s true for both men. Adam just has more solid fans to start with. IMO.

    Really, I think there is a WIDE gap between OMG-Best-Artist-To-Have-Ever-Walked-The-Earth-And-That-Will-Save-The-Music-Business and Dude-Sucks-More-Than-a-Hoover-And-Will-Be-Flipping-Burgers-At-MacDonalds-By-March. I fall in between those two extremes. Closer to the OMGBATHEWTEATWSTMB than to DSMTAHAWBFBAMBM. I’ve always predicted that Adam will do well. Just because I’m not AMAZED by every statistic that is associated with him doesn’t mean I think he’s doomed.

  59. Excited to see that Phil has jumped from 17 to 14! He has been “stuck” for a while in the same position. I believe being on the “A New Hallelujah” tour with Michael W. Smith is helping him. People who may not remember him from Idol, or who have not seen the show, are really getting to see the performer and hearing the great voice and the encouragement he brings when he speaks. It does not hurt, either, that his set includes “Old Glory,” which strikes a chord with so many in these days.

  60. the assumption made regarding the socio-economic status of those listening to radio is off, most glaringly so regarding the appeal of rap/hip hop’ ¦ the irony of the matter is that while most hip hop artists in the United States are African-American city-dwellers, the majority of consumers of the music are whites living in the suburbs. yep, megan and marty in suburbia usa are what’s keeping the rap and hip hop nation afloat,

    Which is also why “conscious” rap and socially and politically relevant and otherwise thoughtful and intelligent rap and hip-hop were squashed by the record companies in favor of all the boring “gangsta” stuff.

    There has been a ton of really really interesting stuff going on in rap and hip-hop, from their inception through today, but when music execs realized they could sell it to upper-middle-income and upper-income white kids in the suburbs they immediately went for the lowest common denominator, dumped anybody who did political commentary in their music, etc., and packaged just the stuff that they figured white kids would buy. They were perfectly happy to leave the actual art form and communication form that the music was to die without support while they made money off the silliest elements.

    Love corporate music. Not.

  61. I thought I read it that way too. Stupid, poor people decide what’s on radio while smart, rich people buy good music to play on their Ipods.
    So I guess the more radio play Adam or Kris’ get, the dumber and poorer their fans are. They should sell their music for more money though. That will keep the rabble away for sure. ;)

    brilliant, brilliant summation jpfan… excuse me while i go repair the damage done to the guts that burst while i was lmao…

  62. So my guess is that there is a threshold in radio spins (which may be an indicator of certain population penetration) after which sales will catch up with radio airplay.

    Yes, exactly. Kris is not there yet.

    TikTok is a song that’s been bubbling around for a lllooonngggg time. That girl has apparently been on the underground scene – the same one that spawned Lady Gaga – for a minute. Tik Tok was on YouTube forever under a several different names. At one point it was called PDiddy. So that is not a typical song at all.

    the irony of the matter is that while most hip hop artists in the United States are African-American city-dwellers, the majority of consumers of the music are whites living in the suburbs.

    Don’t get me started. LOL. One of the great ironies about hiphop is that so-called “gansta rap” did not dominate the genre until white surburban teens took to it in droves once NWA appeared. Before that, things were much more balanced… you had your De La Souls, your Tribe Called Quests, your Public Enemies, your Will Smiths. Of course people of all races liked hip hop before, but nobody consistently flocked to one aspect of it in huge numbers before that moment. Once record execs figured out that gansta rap made great ‘rebellious” music for middle class teens from all walks of life, it was pretty much game over. It was hard to get a record deal being anything but a crazy gansta (or a womanizing gangsta, or a dripping jewels braggard), but somehow in the public mind it was all the rapper’s fault. Not that they aren’t complict, but just ugh.

    ETA lucy, we share a brain. LOL!

  63. Which is also why ‘conscious’  rap and socially and politically relevant and otherwise thoughtful and intelligent rap and hip-hop were squashed by the record companies in favor of all the boring ‘gangsta’  stuff.

    There has been a ton of really really interesting stuff going on in rap and hip-hop, from their inception though today, but when music execs realized they could sell it to upper-middle-income and upper-income white kids in the suburbs they immediately went for the lowest common denominator, dumped anybody who did political commentary in their music, etc., and packaged just the stuff that they figured white kids would buy. They were perfectly happy to leave the actual art form and communication form that the music was to die without support while they made money off the silliest elements.

    Love corporate music. Not.

    very, very astute observation… .. i miss the rap from artists like krs-1, public enemy and a host of others who actually had some great messages of empowerment and uplift in their music, before the corporations got greedy and began selling it out, as normal, for the almighty green…

  64. Closer to the OMGBATHEWTEATWSTMB than to DSMTAHAWBFBAMBM.

    Nicely done with those initials, haha.

  65. ETA lucy, we share a brain. LOL!

    tinawina, no one I would be happier to share a brain with!

  66. tinawina, no one I would be happier to share a brain with!

    I need the hugs smiley back. :)

    I love hiphop! Yay! I’m not the only one.

  67. Really interesting analysis, BeckyMD – that makes a lot of sense to me actually, in terms of a song really hitting it’s high mark in sales once its reached top penetration in radio play.

  68. Closer to the OMGBATHEWTEATWSTMB than to DSMTAHAWBFBAMBM.

    LOL, love it, Kirsten.

  69. Wow, the hip-hop information is fascinating; I had no idea. And here I thought I was fairly cool & up on things.

    My first thought when reading the comment about lower socio-economic groups not knowing/producing “good” music was jazz. We all know the impact jazz has had on the music scene worldwide. I’m pretty sure that would be considered as “good” music by everybody, whether or not it’s their personal taste.

  70. So I listend to an Emenem(spelling off) who is a rapper..so that means am poor and dumb..Jezz I knew I should of studied for that don’t eat the colored snow test

  71. the irony of the matter is that while most hip hop artists in the United States are African-American city-dwellers, the majority of consumers of the music are whites living in the suburbs.

    Raises hand! LOL!

    Really, I think there is a WIDE gap between OMG-Best-Artist-To-Have-Ever-Walked-The-Earth-And-That-Will-Save-The-Music-Business and Dude-Sucks-More-Than-a-Hoover-And-Will-Be-Flipping-Burgers-At-MacDonalds-By-March. I fall in between those two extremes. Closer to the OMGBATHEWTEATWSTMB than to DSMTAHAWBFBAMBM. I’ve always predicted that Adam will do well. Just because I’m not AMAZED by every statistic that is associated with him doesn’t mean I think he’s doomed.

    Great titles there, Kirsten! IDK – I’m still of the opinion that, while we love comparing idols each year, it really means next to nothing to me. If Taylor Hicks is the last person since Britney to debut at the top of Billboard 100, well, nuf said. But I know comparing is part of the name of the game :-)

  72. Live Like We’re Dying has a higher A.I. than many other singles mainly because of Z100. The most played song on Z100 gets an A.I of over 6 million.

    Speaking of Z100, is there any explanation as to why LLWD has lost 23 spins on this station since last week? (29 spins this week vs. 52 spins last week)

  73. no tinawina, you are not alone :) ‘ fist bump’ 

    LMAO! Peace, my sister. :)

    I knew I should of studied for that don’t eat the colored snow test

    Bwwahhhh

    Closer to the OMGBATHEWTEATWSTMB than to DSMTAHAWBFBAMBM.

    And Kirsten completes the trilogy of laughs this afternoon. Heh. But ITA. Adam’s fanbase is large, but probably not THE LARGEST FANBASE EVAH!!!!!, and so what? He’ll open well, do great during christmas ’cause 19 will make sure he’s everywhere, then he has to connect with the rest of the world like everyone else. To me it is nothing to get into heated arguments over. YMMV

  74. Speaking of Z100, is there any explanation as to why LLWD has lost 23 spins on this station since last week? (52 spins this week vs. 29 spins last week)

    Well, just based on past history, this seems to be kind of standard when a big station like Z100 or KIIS LA agrees to help push an Idol’s single by debuting it and playing it first (maybe with singles of people other than Idols, as well, but I don’t follow anybody else’s career in the same silly way!)….

    They tend to start out putting the song in way way heavy rotation and then, after a few weeks, when the song can be supposed to have gathered up new stations elsewhere, I guess, they often back off it a little bit. … I’ve noticed this with more than one song in the past, and I always just figured it was probably part of the agreement — tacit or explicit — when they got the deal to debut the song in the first place. They sort of seem to put themselves in the initial position of *sustaining* the song and giving it some hefty early numbers as an initial boost, and then they back off to maybe a more “normal’ level of play for a newish, relatively unproven song….

    Now, whether any of this is actually deliberate or a pattern or just a random coincidence that I’ve seen play out over several years of Idol song debuts, I don’t know!

  75. Kirsten
    October 26, 2009 at 1:30 pm

    I merely pointed out that the first week sales weren’t as good as Cookie and Archie managed last year, so that’s an indication about the size of his current Idol fan base (which is smaller than I thought).

    imo, the inconsistence in your arguments is the different degree of importance of radio airplay you put in TFM and LLWD.

    You emphasize the positive influence/importance of radio airplay in LLWD’s case and use it as a supporting evidence that LLWD has the potential to do better with expanding AI and non-AI fans.

    However, when comparing TFM to Crush and LO, you downplay the impact of radio play. You ignored the fact that TFM didn’t have many spins before releasing in itune. In some posters day ago, you said LO debut on “some internet website” omitting it was AOL and Crush was premiered on “a radio station in one city” omitting that it was Z100 in NYC the largest pop radio station. You also mentioned LO only got 5 spins, the same amount TFM got, before release for sale, but some poster pointed out later that both LO and Crush had about 1-2 weeks airplay before going to itune. Although Adam got a lot of buzz, AMA announcement, Detail magazine, such and such, those are buzz around Adam, not promotion for TFM. The promotion of TFM outside AI bubble was very minimum up till now, especially in term of radio airplay.

    Using the first week sales of TFM, Crush and LO to draw conclusion about Adam, Davids’ fanbase sizes will be misleading if not factoring the impact of radio play, especially when you emphasize the importance of it in other topic.

  76. My first thought when reading the comment about lower socio-economic groups not knowing/producing ‘good’  music was jazz.

    bingo! jazz was birthed by people out of the lowest rungs of the socio-economic ladder, and guess what other music has these same roots – rock and roll. and rhythm and blues. the very music most on this blog proclaim to love and have listened to most of their lives, as well as on idol, wouldn’t have come about without the influence and creativity of those po’ folks down in the mississippi delta, and without the appreciation of those artists, namely british artists, in the 50’s and 60’s, who had to reawaken america and the world to just what a national treasure many of these po’ folks were, and remain… po’ folks rock!

  77. TikTok is a song that’s been bubbling around for a lllooonngggg time. That girl has apparently been on the underground scene ‘“ the same one that spawned Lady Gaga ‘“ for a minute. Tik Tok was on YouTube forever under a several different names. At one point it was called PDiddy. So that is not a typical song at all.

    Maybe, but the song was stuck at the bottom of itunes and started to rise only after the adds, so the alleged underground awareness must not has been so important saleswise.

    Try Happy, by Leona: its impression is of 4,8 million, released on 9/26 and yet it never fell from itunes top 100 and its currently no. 80. Can you say that Leona has so many fans in US and its not selling based on airplay? Happy’s figures are being considered very underwhelming, by the way.

  78. Using the first week sales of TFM, Crush and LO to draw conclusion about Adam, Davids’ fanbase sizes will be misleading if not factoring the impact of radio play, especially when you emphasize the importance of it in other topic.

    Exactly. I still maintain that, since TFM is NOT Adam’s first single, was released for a movie, and not by him, it really can’t be compared to any previous idol first singles. None of the promo can be compared to how a typical first AI single would be rolled out.

  79. They tend to start out putting the song in way way heavy rotation and then, after a few weeks, when the song can be supposed to have gathered up new stations elsewhere, I guess, they often back off it a little bit. ‘ ¦ I’ve noticed this with more than one song in the past, and I always just figured it was probably part of the agreement ‘” tacit or explicit ‘” when they got the deal to debut the song in the first place. They sort of seem to put themselves in the initial position of *sustaining* the song and giving it some hefty early numbers as an initial boost, and then they back off to maybe a more ‘normal’ level of play for a newish, relatively unproven song’ ¦.

    Now, whether any of this is actually deliberate or a pattern or just a random coincidence that I’ve seen play out over several years of Idol song debuts, I don’t know!

    Thank you. What was the peak number of spins for LLWD on Z100? I don’t think that it ever reached the level of “way way heavy rotation”, considering that the peak rotation levels on the Z100 playlist for the top 4 played songs is in the 102+ spins per week range.

  80. What was the peak number of spins for LLWD on Z100?

    I believe that 52 spins was the peak for LLWD on Z100 (and around #8 on the playlist).

  81. imo, the inconsistence in your arguments is the different degree of importance of radio airplay you put in TFM and LLWD.

    You emphasize the positive influence/importance of radio airplay in LLWD’s case and use it as a supporting evidence that LLWD has the potential to do better with expanding AI and non-AI fans.

    I don’t think I’m being inconsistent at all. These are two completely different things. Two different phases of the life cycle of a song.

    IMO, few of these recent Idol songs get enough time to percolate on the radio before they are released for sale. Thus, the first week or so of sales is largely a measurement of the solid AI fan base.

    After the first week or two, something has to come along to support continuing sales. To introduce new listeners to the song or dig the song into the conciousness so much that people decide to buy it.

    For most songs, that is airplay. For TfM, the strategy appears to be using movie screenings.

    Do I think that if TfM had gotten 200 spins last week it would have moved more units? Yes, I do, but I don’t think it would have been significant compared to the fact of it being the first Adam song released in a very long time.

    LLWD has passed it’s honeymoon period of fan buying. Now, it needs radio support to sell. TfM had it’s honeymoon period last week. If the song isn’t featured in front of TII or is pulled from 2012, I won’t hold it against the song if it falls of the iTunes cliff. There are VERY few songs that sell without support. I wrote a big post explaining the Glee phenomena last week. I really don’t know why anyone would expect people to suddenly buy LLWD if they didn’t hear it somewhere. Same for TfM.

    I don’t think the number of spins that Archie had nor the AOL thing were the largest contributing factor in them moving the 100K+ units they moved last year. I also think that ET is a pretty popular show and reaches a large audience. I do think that the airplay “Crush” got helped it to sell almost 2 million units in the end. Different phases, different factors at play.

  82. Using the first week sales of TFM, Crush and LO to draw conclusion about Adam, Davids’ fanbase sizes will be misleading if not factoring the impact of radio play, especially when you emphasize the importance of it in other topic.

    Well I’m not going to answer for Kirsten, but for me, this is not the only indicator. There are a couple of things that well give you a rough example of hardcore fanbase size/strength IMO:
    1. The contestants run on idol (Did they ever hit the bottom? did they dominate on DialIdol? Did they make it to the finals? Did they win? By how much?)
    2. AI concert attendance, merch sales
    2. Fanbase Internet traffic
    3. Itunes sales post idol
    4. Sales of first fall post idol single

    So, Adam has done well on all accounts, but he has only dominatedon two factors… internet traffic & merch sales. He has a big fanbase, but there is no indication that it is huge.. like the biggest we’ve ever seen. Again, he will sell great in the fall, but I am not thinking he’s going to have some kind of record breaking opening weekend, unless his AMA performance is killer and sends people flying to Itunes. And again, why is that such a big deal? He’s going to do well any way you slice it.

    Anyway, first single of not, hardcore devotees will buy regardless, and that is who we are trying to measure here.

    Maybe, but the song was stuck at the bottom of itunes and started to rise only after the adds, so the alleged underground awareness must not has been so important saleswise.

    Yeah, but there is a question of how many people even knew it was on Itunes now since it had been around so long. People who know who she is and are familiar with her stuff are much likely to pick up her song faster, so that’s why I was saying that’s not a good song to use.

    Try Happy, by Leona: its impression is of 4,8 million, released on 9/26 and yet it never fell from itunes top 100 and its currently no. 80. Can you say that Leona has so many fans in US and its not selling based on airplay? Happy’s figures are being considered very underwhelming, by the way.

    I think that’s a better song to use for comparison’s sake. Happy is probably considered underwhelming because its not a top 10 song shooting up the charts – not because of its sales relative to its airplay. That said, that’s a good start. I would also ask for a longer list of songs around that audience level and see what the range is, and then see how Kris fits in from there.

  83. But BeckyMD,

    You’re trying to pick holes in the specific phrases Kirsten used, without dealing with the main points in it.

    Adam’s early numbers for TFM are not terrible. Neither are they great.

    The nearest point of comparison in time lies in the singles from last year’s winner and runner-up, so that is the comparison made. It’s not exactly bias to compare him to other recent artists in a similar position.

    And how TFM goes doesn’t mean another song won’t be a bigger hit for him.

    But there is a sort of interesting aspect to the Season 8 fandoms. Despite a lot of hardcore excitement, overall ratings were down a little (though still much bigger then other shows. Fewer iTunes downloads were sold during the season). The tour was very popular–exactly as popular as last year: it didn’t increase audience size any. The coronation song was not a hit, as it has been in a few years, and neither singer released a summer single. The first releases from both singers are out, and neither had an extraordinary first week or two. Both songs seemingly will make their way very much in traditional music market fashion, taking some time to either build or fade.

    Has the media attention to the season, and to Adam in particular, increased over past years? It seems like it, but up until now, from January when Season 8 premiered up through this week, positive media and fan intensity have not translated into any significant real world gains over prior seasons, such as increased ratings, ticket sales or music sales.

    Objectively, there’s just not many pieces of data that say that this year’s music buying audience (as opposed to online fandom) is more interested then usual in either.

    Now “as usual” for Idol faves still looks to be pretty darn great in this music market. Recollect, music sales are down 11+% in ’09, after a 14% drop in both ’08 and ’07. If either Adam or Kris can garner a platinum album, they’ll be doing outstanding compared to the vast majority of the market.

    As far as the Adam fandom expectation that he’s primed to exceed every other artist in the music market right out of the gate, another three months will tell. Obviously, emotions fuel people’s expectations. So far, there’s not specific, hard evidence pointing that way IMHO. There’s always the possibility that the next benchmark will be the one.

  84. tinawina
    LOL we were thinking similar things, and writing them at same time!

  85. I believe that 52 spins was the peak for LLWD on Z100 (and around #8 on the playlist).

    That’s what I had thought. It seems a little soon for Z100 to be decreasing spins so much for LLWD, since it’s only been released for a few weeks.

  86. For most songs, that is airplay. For TfM, the strategy appears to be using movie screenings.

    2012 has opened yet. Trailer using TFM hadn’t been used until after it’s on itune. We can’t use future promotion to pump up previous sales.

    I don’t think the number of spins that Archie had nor the AOL thing were the largest contributing factor in them moving the 100K+ units they moved last year. I also think that ET is a pretty popular show and reaches a large audience.

    AOL and Z100 are media channel targeting music buyers while ET is TV show targeting casual entertainment viewers. Adam in many interviews emphasized that TFM was NOT his first single while Archie and Cookie promoted Crush and LO as their FIRST single in every interview. You are comparing Adam’s hardcore fanbase (those who will buy anything Adam) to David’s whole fanbase (anything David + what their idol promoted to them to buy) plus music buyers who were covered by music channel.

  87. 1) I think Adam has a smaller AI fanbase than DC did last year.

    2) I think Adam has more buzz and hype around this this year than DC did last year.

    3) I think Adam is in a position where he has a great shot at mainstream success, and a great shot at doing well beyond the AI fanbase, much more so than DC, if his single hits right. Like I said yesterday, I think the mainstream media and a lot of music industry people seem ready to embrace him more than some past winners.

    We shall see in several months where Adam’s trajectory for success is headed.

  88. maturin
    October 26, 2009 at 3:07 pm

    tinawina
    LOL we were thinking similar things, and writing them at same time!

    i appreciate these type of analyses… i always leave with a better understanding about how a lot of this music and radio stuff works, and it gives me a deeper appreciation for these ex idols, who are out there grinding in a very volatile and uncertain industry…

  89. Now ‘as usual’  for Idol faves still looks to be pretty darn great in this music market. Recollect, music sales are down 11+% in ’09, after a 14% drop in both ’08 and ’07. If either Adam or Kris can garner a platinum album, they’ll be doing outstanding compared to the vast majority of the market.

    I know we have had this discussion before in regards to why this year’s sales are lower. Are downloads are down due to
    1) economy
    2) illegal downloads
    3) the idols just aren’t as popular as last year’s idols

    I do, however, feel that you can’t compare sales figures if there isn’t the same exposure of a product to the general public. If some singles are getting radio play for two weeks before being added to ITUNES, then one would assume more of the general public would know of the song’s existance. So perhaps you would have more “outside the AI Bubble” folks purchasing? If a song is only known via the internet, then it’s only going to be hardcore fans who are purchasing it? I don’t know if that is true, is just what would seem logical to me.

    To me, comparing Crush and LO to TFM is like comparing two movies who opened the same weekend. One movie opened on 100 screens the other, 1000 screens. It would be a good bet the movie being shown on more screens would have higher grosses.

    Unfortunately, we can’t even compare pre-sales because Cook’s album was up for presale long before Kris’s or Adam’s.

    I also think if you had to compare two songs, it would be LO and TFM because they are both rock anthems where Crush is more pop and closer to LLWD.

  90. maturin
    October 26, 2009 at 3:04 pm

    But there is a sort of interesting aspect to the Season 8 fandoms. Despite a lot of hardcore excitement, overall ratings were down a little (though still much bigger then other shows. Fewer iTunes downloads were sold during the season).

    Overall ratings for Season 7 were higher than Season 8, but we’ll never know how much impact the television strike had on AI ratings in season 7, since there was no original programming to really compete against. But objectively, you are right.

    For your second point, do you have the sales figures for Itunes downloads during season 8?? Please provide, I’d love to see them, thanks!!

  91. Yeah, but there is a question of how many people even knew it was on Itunes now since it had been around so long. People who know who she is and are familiar with her stuff are much likely to pick up her song faster, so that’s why I was saying that’s not a good song to use.

    The song was released on itunes on August 6, 2009, so people had a long time to be aware.

    The nearest point of comparison in time lies in the singles from last year’s winner and runner-up, so that is the comparison made.

    Did Cook and Archuleta recorded a song for a movie? There are no nearest point in time data for TFM, because it is not his first single.

  92. 2012 has opened yet. Trailer using TFM hadn’t been used until after it’s on itune. We can’t use future promotion to pump up previous sales.

    I never said it would. As I said the other day, I expect to see TfM to continue to drift down on iTunes until the trailers/movie come out. I’m just saying that it appears that TfM will not be going the airplay route at this time (since there is no add date or push by the label). This could change.

    You are comparing Adam’s hardcore fanbase (those who will buy anything Adam) to David’s whole fanbase (anything David + what their idol promoted to them to buy) plus music buyers who were covered by music channel.

    That’s possible, but I don’t buy it just yet. I guess we’ll have more definitive numbers when he does release his first single.

    Each Idol single comes with it’s own release strategy and there are differences. Kris fans will note that he’d had very few spins, that he didn’t get an iTunes banner and that his single just kind of snuck out for sale one day. Archie fans will point out that he couldn’t promote the single since he was on the AI tour. Cookie fans will point out that he only got the AOL premiere as opposed to the big splashy radio premiere. None of them had videos the week they went for sale. The list goes on as each group explains why the numbers aren’t bigger or that their guy didn’t get any special help.

    I presume that the labels have a lot more data on how those things are contributing factors. I’m sure they weigh it when they release a song. We can only speculate, but our source data gets a little bigger each year.

    ET may be just an entertainment show, but it may turn out to be the best mover of Idol songs…Idols who gained their fame on a television show…

    It’s all just speculation and I think we can have an interesting discussion and bandy about different theories.

    BTW maturin, I think you explained some of my arguments well.

  93. 1) I think Adam has a smaller AI fanbase than DC did last year.

    2) I think Adam has more buzz and hype around this this year than DC did last year.

    3) I think Adam is in a position where he has a great shot at mainstream success, and a great shot at doing well beyond the AI fanbase, much more so than DC, if his single hits right. Like I said yesterday, I think the mainstream media and a lot of music industry people seem ready to embrace him more than some past winners.

    We shall see in several months where Adam’s trajectory for success is headed.

    I generally tend to agree with the above three assessments. The one caveat to #1 above, though, is that I think, from my experience last year (a bit of a generalization here): that David Cook had a much more narrow fan base than Adam has. David’s may be bigger, but I think Adam has a wider fanbase in terms of demographics. No facts to prove this, but in general (at tours, etc.) I saw everyone young and old loving Adam, while David seemed to have a predominantly older fan base. TIFWIW.

  94. I enjoy reading these discussions, even though I’m not sure I see the value of making comparisons between different seasons. Since the datapoints are all different such as timing of releases, publicity (or lack thereof), more digital downloads vs. brick and mortal store purchases, illegal downloads…I guess it’s fun for those that love crunching numbers. I’m such a number phobe that I wind up more confused in the end.

    But seriously, I am learning a lot about the music industry. Is there ever a situation (excluding Idol for the moment) where the information being compared with regard to spins/sales is matched up perfectly to provide a direct comparison? Well, perfectly is a bad choice of wording…”close” relatively speaking?

  95. I think the mainstream media and a lot of music industry people seem ready to embrace him more than some past winners.

    I don’t think many people doubt that Adam has achieved more media coverage then any Idol figure in a long time. But that’s been ubiquitous since early in Season 8.

    I just wonder at the pattern where that media attention all year has not yet resulted in increased TV ratings, music sales, or ticket purchases over other recent Idol artists–but folks still feel that with the next benchmark, or the one after that–Adam’s media coverage will necessarily equal much higher sales then median.

    Mind you, I have no reason to doubt he won’t do well. As a consumer of Idolrama–MJ’s, Slezak, and more–I’m just wondering if media coverage is really the differentiator in the mass market between a top seller and a moderate one.

    An example might be taken from television: there’s a history of cult TV shows that have passionate online fandoms and get a huge amount of press coverage, but relatively small ratings. On the “critically acclaimed” end, Mad Men. On the “celebrity” end, Gossip Girls whose kids are all over TMZ, mag covers and the like, but has just ok ratings. But fame of that sort has its own rewards, even if they aren’t the highest rated shows around. Similarly, whether or not he’s the biggest seller ever, Adam seems poised to continue to be a pop cultural celebrity.

  96. I may have read through these post too quickly. Did someone actually post TFM sales numbers or are spins and sales being used synonomously?
    (sp)

  97. An example might be taken from television: there’s a history of cult TV shows that have passionate online fandoms and get a huge amount of press coverage, but relatively small ratings. On the ‘critically acclaimed’  end, Mad Men. On the ‘celebrity’  end, Gossip Girls whose kids are all over TMZ, mag covers and the like, but has just ok ratings. But fame of that sort has its own rewards, even if they aren’t the highest rated shows around. Similarly, whether or not he’s the biggest seller ever, Adam seems poised to continue to be a pop cultural celebrity.

    Your analogy points are not consistent. Mad Men is a critically acclaimed Emmy winning show. Gossip girls is pop culture. To which area does Adam fit? Is he critically accliamed, but unappreciated by the masses, or pop culture with a small cult following?

  98. Maturin, not sure if you saw my post on the previous page. Can you provide the season 8 itunes sales during the season you referenced?? Oh and Season 7 itunes sales during the season too, thanks!

  99. I may have read through these post too quickly. Did someone actually post TFM sales numbers or are spins and sales being used synonomously

    I don’t think I’ve seen anybody making points about popularity based on TfM spins. As far as I can infer, most people seem to think that this song is not intended for radio (not to say that it couldn’t be sent to radio, just that the assumption is that it will not) and, refreshingly, not attempting to score points on it’s spin count.

    Some have said that the low spin count is one explanation for the sales numbers.

    We don’t have the sales numbers, but based on the fluctuating iTunes ratings, I think most number watchers expect that TfM will have lower numbers than LO and Crush did during their first weeks last year. There is no reason to believe that this week did “Gift Card” week numbers on iTunes (ie where the top song move 500K+ units and every other song did relatively well with respect to their ranking). It seems like an average week, so the numbers for various positions should be reasonably consistent with what they are in an average week. TfM had a similar run to Glee songs and we’ve seen their numbers for the past few weeks.

    Of course, on Wednesday, this speculation could all have been proven wrong.

  100. Can you provide the season 8 itunes sales during the season you referenced?? Oh and Season 7 itunes sales during the season too, thanks!

    These numbers have never been revealed.

    I believe maturin is refering to post-finale numbers (though they do include a half-week of pre-finale numbers) and the leaks we got of rankings (much more prevalent in S7).

  101. maturin
    October 26, 2009 at 4:02 pm
    I just wonder at the pattern where that media attention all year has not yet resulted in increased TV ratings, music sales, or ticket purchases over other recent Idol artists’“but folks still feel that with the next benchmark, or the one after that’“Adam’s media coverage will necessarily equal much higher sales then median.

    With regard to your paragraph above: is it at all significant that with everyone saying the ratings of S8 fell far short of S7, the concert revenue and tour attendance for both seasons was about equal? To what would we attribute those ticket sales? Not additional disposable income in the thick of a recession. What was the motivating factor? Might media coverage of Adam have contributed to that? I’m not sure I see anyone here constantly pushing back to say “wait, it will be the next benchmark, really.” But that’s because I’m not sure I’ve seen a lot of apples-to-apples comparisons.

  102. I still don’t see why we go thru so much to compare TFM to Cook and Archie. Yet, we spend very little time comparing LLWD to Cook and Archie. I didn’t watch AI last year so they don’t mean alot to me.

  103. Kirsten
    October 26, 2009 at 4:22 pm

    I believe maturin is refering to post-finale numbers (though they do include a half-week of pre-finale numbers) and the leaks we got of rankings (much more prevalent in S7).

    Oh, but Maturin’s post specifically reference during the season. .

    But there is a sort of interesting aspect to the Season 8 fandoms. Despite a lot of hardcore excitement, overall ratings were down a little (though still much bigger then other shows. Fewer iTunes downloads were sold during the season).

    So, I guess that argument can’t really be proven then. Ratings were down though. Maybe because of season 8 talent, maybe because of disappointment with Season 7 or the television strike that might have increased Season 7 ratings. So many variables, who knows? Somewhere, sometime I’m sure someone will do a study or tell-all book on all this. I’d be interested to read it.

  104. With regard to your paragraph above: is it at all significant that with everyone saying the ratings of S8 fell far short of S7,

    Didn’t someone state upthread that the writers strike which started on November 5, 2007 and concluded on February 12, 2008 could have contributed to the better ratings for S7?

    From Wikipedia

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007%E2%80%932008_Writers_Guild_of_America_strike

    Of the “Big Four” networks’”CBS, ABC, NBC, and FOX’”NBC had the most severe ad shortfall as its prime time ratings declined sharply; none of its new shows achieved breakout success.[107] Moreover, during 2007, NBC saw its prime time 18-to-49-year-old viewership drop by 11%. CBS dropped the same demographic by 10%, and ABC lost 5%.[108] Fox executive Peter Chernin suggested the strike is “probably a positive” for the network, as he expected its non-WGA reality hit American Idol to do especially well given reduced competition.</blockquote>

    eta-so higher viewership would mean more invested viewers who would purchase more downloads?

  105. I think Kirsten may be correct that Adam has fewer idol fans. I think a lot of his fans are like me and come from outside the idol bubble. I went to the tour to see Adam. Loved Adam, found the rest of the show difficult to sit through. Just wanted to say that at least some of Adams fans come from a world completely disconnected from idol.

  106. I still don’t see why we go thru so much to compare TFM to Cook and Archie. Yet, we spend very little time comparing LLWD to Cook and Archie.

    I think there are two reasons for this:

    1) LLWD’s first week sales were a month ago, so it’s not excatly current news. TfM was released last week, so it is current news.

    2) Everybody seems to acknowledge that LLWD had lower first week numbers than “Crush” or LO so there is no longer any need to debate it. If nobody is arguing otherwise, the debate generally quickly fizzles out.

    I could see bringing up LLWD into this debate if people were going “OMG LLWD had AMAZING first week numbers, but TfM’s numbers suck”, but I don’t see anybody being inconsistent like that.

  107. David Cook had a much more narrow fan base than Adam has. David’s may be bigger, but I think Adam has a wider fanbase in terms of demographics. No facts to prove this, but in general (at tours, etc.) I saw everyone young and old loving Adam, while David seemed to have a predominantly older fan base. TIFWIW.

    The “middle aged women” fanbase is a meme in Cook’s media coverage for sure, but I really wonder to what extent that is lazy journalism – new articles copying ideas from older ones. I’ve been to five Cook shows (Yikes!): 2 club shows, 2 fair shows, and 1 casino show. The casino show had the middle aged crowd for sure, but the fair shows and even the club shows had lots of teenagers and 20-somethings. Lots and lots of annoying teenagers, lol. It would interesting to see some real stats on that some day.

  108. We don’t have the sales numbers, but based on the fluctuating iTunes ratings, I think most number watchers expect that TfM will have lower numbers than LO and Crush did during their first weeks last year.

    Thank you for the clarification. So the sales numbers are based on analytical assumptions of past itunes buying behaviors, but will not be validated until the actual numbers are in.

    Some have said that the low spin count is one explanation for the sales numbers.

    Based on previous posts, this assumption would be consistent with the speculation for the lower sales expectation on Kris’ album.

    As far as I can infer, most people seem to think that this song is not intended for radio (not to say that it couldn’t be sent to radio, just that the assumption is that it will not) and, refreshingly, not attempting to score points on it’s spin count.

    As assumptions go, this may be as valid as any. Other factors lead me to believe that this song may not be pushed for individual sales by RCA. If RCA or Sony is really pushing for individual sales, they are definitely missing some golden opportunities. There does not appear to be an itunes link for TFM on either mySpace or 2012. If so, it is definitely not prominently displayed. Thus missing the opportunity for impulse purchases after someone has seen the video. Again assuming that someone would impulsively purchase a piece of music that they had just heard.

    I am beginning to think that the song is mainly for 2012 promotional purchases. It is being used as trailer for the movie and not to promote sales for Adam Lambert.

    As an aside, the Myspace page is also being used a promotional vehicle for Kris’s LLWD. There is an itunes link for this song. There Adam goes again promoting his friends.

  109. I still don’t see why we go thru so much to compare TFM to Cook and Archie. Yet, we spend very little time comparing LLWD to Cook and Archie. I didn’t watch AI last year so they don’t mean alot to me.

    I think it’s either because people came to agreement that Kris does have a smaller idol fanbase or because when someone has different opinion he/she can not find counter-evidence (either sales or promotion disadvantage/irregular promotion strategies) to support the argument.

    The focus of LLWD is now on increasing radio spins and if the spins can increase sales in a longer time frame. If we see stable/increasing airplay not being followed by increasing sales in the next 2-3 weeks, we may have more discussion. On a side note, I wonder when LLWD music video will be out and if it can pump up the sales.

    As for Kris, since we have the whole album list and he has debut several new songs, I think many focuses have switched from LLWD to the new songs and the band.

  110. I enjoy reading these discussions, even though I’m not sure I see the value of making comparisons between different seasons. Since the datapoints are all different such as timing of releases, publicity (or lack thereof), more digital downloads vs. brick and mortal store purchases, illegal downloads’ ¦

    Yeah, that’s why I personally don’t advocate direct comparisons, as in “Archie charted #1 and Adam charted #7, therefore Archie was way more popular than Adam”. There are too many variables to be that definitive, to me. BUT I do thing you can make general inferences taken from all the things we know. I think if you are looking at everything together, you are probably looking at Adam being in range of Archie and Cook, but not blowing them out of the water. That is not a bad thing! Its a damn good thing!

    The only reason I personally am commenting on it is because Adam’s fan online presence and buzz was so big all summer that it seemed like he might be dominating more than he is. But its like winning the lottery and complaining you didn’t hit twice, you now? He’s got a big fanbase, he’ll be fine.

  111. I honestly believe that RCA has no visible investment in the charting or sales of TFM. There hasn’t been any push to radio. Adam hasn’t had multiple radio station interviews talking about TFM. Nothing.

    I’m really stunned that TFM made it to #10 or 11 on iTunes.

    Actually, I think Adam and RCA are distancing themselves from this song as much as they can. It will be included on his album but probably as a bonus track.

    IMO, Adam and his management took this gig to introduce Adam to the world. His singing of an ‘old school’ rock ballad is similar to what we, as Idol fans, were introduced to. It could help boost sales for the debut CD or not. It certainly won’t hurt. It will make him more visible.

    When Adam’s single is available for sale, comparisons can be made.

    ETA: I see that readon has stated my assumptions much more clearly and eloquently, but imma posting anyway! Hee.

  112. When Adam’s single is available for sale, comparisons can be made.

    ETA: I see that readon has stated my assumptions much more clearly and eloquently, but imma posting anyway! Hee.

    I see someone got my point. I may have been too long winded. In summary, the previous comparisons are apples to oranges. TFM should not be compared to LLWD, LO, Crush,etc. They are entirely different vehicles. The only valid comparison is Carrie’s Enchanted song.

    TFM promotes a movie, not an album. All of the assumptions stated above about sales may be accurate, but are not valid until Adam releases his album.

  113. There was a little discussion a few comments ago about Z100 reducing the spins of LLWD. I just checked their playlist – LLWD was #10 two weeks ago, #9 last week, and now it’s #21 on their playlist. (They publish the top 200+ of their playlist on their website). I’m not sure if they give a big push to new songs they are adding, then drop them down in the regular rotation, or how these things work.

  114. The only valid comparison is Carrie’s Enchanted song.

    I’m not sure that’s entirely valid either since Carrie’s song wasn’t her first post-Idol release (which tends to fire up the Idol fan base) and I do not believe that it was included in any of her albums. I seem to recall that it was nominated for an Oscar, though.

    Kelly’s “Breakaway” is a little closer of a comparison since it was included on one of her albums.

  115. I’m not sure that’s entirely valid either since Carrie’s song wasn’t her first post-Idol release (which tends to fire up the Idol fan base) and I do not believe that it was included in any of her albums. I seem to recall that it was nominated for an Oscar, though.

    Kelly’s ‘Breakaway’  is a little closer of a comparison since it was included on one of her albums.

    You are splitting hairs now. First album release or not, one should compare soundtracks to soundtracks. I believe that is why they have a completely different category in music sales.

    Until the album tracks are released, it is only an assumption that TFM is going to be included in FYE. Since Breakaway was included in Princess Diares that might be a valid comparison. However, was Breakaway written for the movie?. Was it a valid Oscar nominee?

    You seem to be upping the ante by including the Oscar nod for Carrie’s enchanted track. I am not usually a gambling person, but I am in on that bet.

  116. I think if you are looking at everything together, you are probably looking at Adam being in range of Archie and Cook, but not blowing them out of the water. That is not a bad thing! Its a damn good thing!

    I can’t wait to see what really transpires. I am sure we will be discussing, comparing and over-analyzing this for months to come.
    I love all the discussion points and comparisons and wishful thinking and guesses.
    Watching it all unfold is so exciting.

  117. “Kelly’s ‘Breakaway’  is a little closer of a comparison since it was included on one of her albums.”

    But breakaway also wasnt kellys “first” single, so dont see why compare at all if it makes no sense.

    Besides, I understand you are trying to compare solely fanbases, right? Because its too early to predict what will happen with TFM? Since things changed from last year, I think the only valid comparison is with Kris’ LLWD. Wait for Wednesday, and then compare.

  118. You are splitting hairs now. First album release or not, one should compare soundtracks to soundtracks. I believe that is why they have a completely different category in music sales.

    I don’t believe I am. I’ve long held the theory that Idol fan bases have a very short half-life. By the time the next season is over, many Idol fans have moved on. I believe that TPTB in 19E agree with me and that’s why they generally try to get the Idol albums out in the fall (Q4 also has the best sales, but they don’t seem to be willing to wait for Q4+1 year).

    The first single is typically met with great anticipation by the fan base because it is their first song off the show. It’s the first bit of new music from their favourite in a long time. I got the impression that many people who post at MJs were excited and looking forward to hearing Adam’s 2012 soundtrack. I did not get the impression that, in advance (prior to hearing it), most people had decided that they would not bother buying it because it is from the soundtrack as opposed to being from his album.

    Until the album tracks are released, it is only an assumption that TFM is going to be included in FYE.

    Track listings can change up until the last moment, so it is possible that it will be removed. I don’t think it’s an assumption right now that TfM will be included since we’ve gotten confirmation from multiple sources that it will (the press release, Lyndsey and MJ (who checked with her soruces). Right now, I think it’s a fact and if it isn’t included, it’s a last minute change. In any event, it’s far from a WAG.

    Since Breakaway was included in Princess Diares that might be a valid comparison. However, was Breakaway written for the movie?. Was it a valid Oscar nominee?

    The song was written by Avril Lavigne for her album and was sold to Disney (or whoever) for use in the “Princess Diaries”. Kelly recorded it. I don’t know what the rules were for Oscars that year, but I know that they have recently changed.

    You seem to be upping the ante by including the Oscar nod for Carrie’s enchanted track. I am not usually a gambling person, but I am in on that bet.

    I’m not trying to up the ante. I just mentioned it because there has been a lot of Oscar talk for TfM, so that might be one factor whre they may have in common. I’m not going to claim that a song is a flop because it didn’t get an Oscar nomination especially when it seems questionable if it is even eligible.

    Jennifer Hudson’s song wasn’t eligible. I guess we have to throw that puppy into the mix to.

  119. Besides, I understand you are trying to compare solely fanbases, right? Because its too early to predict what will happen with TFM?

    No. We are just discussing what the meanings of first week sales are. Some of us have one theory. Others of other theories.

    Since things changed from last year, I think the only valid comparison is with Kris’ LLWD.

    Kris fans have already admitted defeat on this front. I see no reason to kick them once they have waved the white flag.

    Alright, I feel confident in stating that Adam’s red-headed step-child of a movie soundtrack song first weeks numbers will be higher than Kris’s three-day first week sales. Woo! And in other news, Nortel shares are worth more than Enron shares. Way to go, Nortel!!!! Work that 18.5 cents.

  120. Alright, I feel confident in stating that Adam’s red-headed step-child of a movie soundtrack song first weeks numbers will be higher than Kris’s three-day first week sales. Woo! And in other news, Nortel shares are worth more than Enron shares. Way to go, Nortel!!!! Work that 18.5 cents.

    Lol, way to dismiss others’ opinions. Nobody wants to compare half week with one whole week (we may even consider that 1 1/2 week if you prefer). In fact, I dont even think it is comparable because of the soundtrack factor.

    I am just trying to understand why some people are saying that TFM’s results are underwhelming. They are not, and even if they were it is impossible to evaluate because of the lack of benchmark, as you exposed yourself.

    If it reflects or not Adam’s fanbase size, we will know very soon with the real first single. But if it reflects adam’s whole fanbase and not his core rabid fans, it is still a great result.

  121. Kris fans have already admitted defeat on this front. I see no reason to kick them once they have waved the white flag.

    I think it is too early to admit defeat on LLWD. It will probably go platinum, but in a Jordin kind of way.

  122. Lol, way to dismiss others’ opinions.

    How am I dismissing other’s opinions? I just pointed out that I don’t think beating Kris is all that of a Woot! worthy achievement. I’m sure that Adam will also beat Diana (2nd place finisher S3) in first week album sales too, but that’s setting the bar pretty low IMO.

    Nortel shares are worth more than Enron, but I don’t think the Nortel share holders are bragging about it to their buddies. Not to say that Adam is Nortel, just to provide an extreme example.

    I am just trying to understand why some people are saying that TFM’s results are underwhelming. They are not,

    Some disagree.

    and even if they were it is impossible to evaluate because of the lack of benchmark, as you exposed yourself.

    Yes, it is true that every single song has an excuse for why it didn’t do better. But, I’m going to disagree with any Kris fan that starts raving about how Kris’s first weeks numbers are simply AMAZING because they are the highest numbers ever achieved by an Idol winner single that only had 3 days to sell AND didn’t have an iTunes banner. It’s all true, but I think people can reasonably take into account the excuses and still fail to be impressed.

    And, just for the record, Archie managed to vault to the top of iTunes in less than 24 hours, be the biggest selling song of the week and be the highest debut non-coronation song on the Hot 100 in Idol history and some people were still not impressed. So, if I was an Adam fan, I’d be getting prepared for some people to be underwhelmed on Wednesday.

    If it reflects or not Adam’s fanbase size

    Well, I think it does. So, we shall have to disagree.

    We will know very soon with the real first single.

    And if it does worse numbers, I’m sure that there will still be some that don’t think that it reflects on the size of Adam’s fan base (because this will be his second single or some such reason).

  123. I think it is too early to admit defeat on LLWD. It will probably go platinum, but in a Jordin kind of way.

    Sorry, I was only refering to first week numbers for first post-Idol single.

  124. Can’t wait to LOL on Wednesday.

    I think the most eligible comparison for TfM is Crush. Although Crush is not a soundtrack, but it’s a first single by a first runner-up. Just my 2 cents

  125. Nortel shares are worth more than Enron, but I don’t think the Nortel share holders are bragging about it to their buddies. Not to say that Adam is Nortel, just to provide an extreme example

    Nobody is bragging. You were trying to find a valid comparison, that is all. I just said that compare to former movie tracks is not appropriate.

    And if it does worse numbers, I’m sure that there will still be some that don’t think that it reflects on the size of Adam’s fan base (because this will be his second single or some such reason).

    Probably. Some people really love to find all kinds of excuses for poor sales (not first single, label’s fault, wrong release day, etc.), as I’ve been noticing the last weeks. So in this point I have to agree 100% with you.

  126. Alright, I feel confident in stating that Adam’s red-headed step-child of a movie soundtrack song first weeks numbers will be higher than Kris’s three-day first week sales. Woo! And in other news, Nortel shares are worth more than Enron shares. Way to go, Nortel!!!! Work that 18.5 cents.

    Have I told you lately that I <3 you? Hee

    Certain parts of the year are soooo much fun to watch…for the observers, anyway. You're doing a great job Kirsten – and MJ – given the…passion…of certain fans from last season.

    Topic? I still can't believe how well Already Gone is doing. Tedder must be the Pied Piper of pop music. I mean, the same tune three times, and all of them are hits?!

  127. And if it does worse numbers, I’m sure that there will still be some that don’t think that it reflects on the size of Adam’s fan base (because this will be his second single or some such reason).

    Of course. No one wants to think of their favorite as a failure – there are enough non-fans out there to do that. Hell even if he only had a 1,000 downloads I will be cheering because it’s a thousand he didn’t have before.

  128. I think it is too early to admit defeat on LLWD. It will probably go platinum, but in a Jordin kind of way.

    True, however I also think it’s far to early to suggest that LLWD will go platinum either and the Jordin kind of way isn’t necessarily “slow” either. Jordin’s first single, Tatoo, went platinum in February 2008. It dropped late August. LLWD has sold 63,000 downloads to date and seems to be increasing spins, but it’s not taking off like Crush did. Tatoo also became a top 10 Top 40 radio hit.

    So unless it takes off on Top 40, I’m not sure why / how mathematically LLWD could reach platinum at Jordin’s rate. While Jordin’s singles went platinum rather quickly — her debut album took over a year to sell platinum.

    eta: Frankly, I don’t know how anyone could suggest LLWD’s sales are great for an Idol winner or a top 2 finalist. To say that does not mean that Kris is doomed nor does it mean that the single is doomed. Perhaps it’s just rather suprising, given how high the bar / expectations were for The Davids last year.

    Heck, Brooke White sold +50K dowloads off her first and highly anticipated single and she wasn’t even in the top 4. So Kris’s sales are a wee bit surprising.

  129. Heck, Brooke White sold +50K dowloads off her first and highly anticipated single and she wasn’t even in the top 4. So Kris’s sales are a wee bit surprising.

    Really Good for her. I like when non spotlight ones do well too.

  130. Jeez. As an Adam fan, I’m more than happy to concede he has a tiny fanbase (much smaller than Cook’s.) ;-) Good news for me, I can enjoy him more and share him less. :-) Of course, I have no real evidence of this or basis by which to compare or make the claim. And, as a practical matter, I never will. But, based on what I’ve seen, I think it’s likely, so I declare it to be so. And, so it is.

    I feel better. ;-)

    FWIW Adam will succeed. I believe he will sell well, but record sales are not the only measure. I believe this will be especially true for Adam. And, rightfully so. He’s an amazing voice, but he’s a whole lot more than the voice. Personally, I believe he’ll be a successful recording artist. But, in many ways — at least based upon his style and stated intent — he’s trail blazing and he’s not going to settle for bland, at least not intentionally. So, I don’t know how to expect all people (especially in the US) to universally embrace him — certainly not right away, if ever. For me, I’m more than ok with this reality. If he finds himself immediately loved by the masses here right out of the gates, I’m pretty sure I’m not going to be satisfied with the product he’s pushing. And, I’m fairly certain that a great many of his fans won’t be either.

  131. Jordin’s first single, Tatoo, went platinum in February 2008. It dropped late August.

    LLWD still have at least 5 month to go platinum….

    Heck, Brooke White sold +50K dowloads off her first and highly anticipated single and she wasn’t even in the top 4. So Kris’s sales are a wee bit surprising.

    As many has predicted, TFM may not sell more than 50k in the first week.

  132. You are splitting hairs now. First album release or not, one should compare soundtracks to soundtracks. I believe that is why they have a completely different category in music sales.

    I don’t believe I am. I’ve long held the theory that Idol fan bases have a very short half-life. By the time the next season is over, many Idol fans have moved on. I believe that TPTB in 19E agree with me and that’s why they generally try to get the Idol albums out in the fall (Q4 also has the best sales, but they don’t seem to be willing to wait for Q4+1 year).

    That post was too long to re copy. I hope I can capture a response that makes sense. Sorry, RL intruded and I could not respond in a timely manner. This is so much fun. Thank you for responding. You are a squirrely one.

    First of all, 19 may think that idol fan bases move on, but is their data to support this. Just because people don’t post on fan boards don’t mean that they don’t support their favorite idols. I thnk all would agree that vote totals during AI do not equate to record sales. This is true one month after AI as well as several months into the fall.

    As far as what the Adam fanbase was willing to buy. My impression was that there was unprecedented support for Adam’s new album. Of course, many believed that would be released first. TBD was available for pre-order before the soundtrack. I think pre-order takes precedence in that this is the idols first release. There was not unconditional support for the soundtrack. Bascially, I seem to recall that the soundtrack was more wait and see.

    Next on TFM being included in the album, even if sources confirm its inclusion, is it the base track list or a bonus? Should a bonus be included as part of an albums sales early predictors?

    Next if Breakaway does not fit the Oscar rules, then it is not a comparable comparison. Neither is Jennifer Hudson song. There is a reason that Oscar made the rules. Including a hit from a totally different genre that has already been successful is stacking the deck. That is like including a ringer in a sports team of amateurs.

    On upping the ante, excuse me if I misinterpreted. I thought that since you brought up Oscar nom, that was an implied comparison.

  133. Jeez. As an Adam fan, I’m more than happy to concede he has a tiny fanbase (much smaller than Cook’s.) ;-) Good news for me, I can enjoy him more and share him less. :-) Of course, I have no real evidence of this or basis by which to compare or make the claim. And, as a practical matter, I never will. But, based on what I’ve seen, I think it’s likely, so I declare it to be so. And, so it is.

    This is the funniest thing I have seen all day. Thank You.

  134. Kris’ Hot AC adds for this week:

    KCIX-FM Boise, ID 100
    KFYV-FM Oxnard-Ventura, CA 118
    KKSN-FM Kansas City 32
    KLCA-FM Reno, NV 122
    KZZU-FM Spokane 92
    WAJI-FM Ft. Wayne, IN 107
    WBMX-FM Boston 10
    WWMP-FM Burlington, VT 138

    8 new stations, including several out west. The # after the city name is that city’s market rank. For example, Boston is the 10th biggest market in the country.

    http://addboard.mediabase.com/AddDetails.asp?AddFormat=A2

    Kris has been added on 32 monitored HAC stations so far, with 67 monitored stations left who haven’t added LLWD. (Or, at least that’s what I come up with when I counted them- are there really 99 monitored stations instead of 100? I’ve been spoiled by having other people collect DC’s info and report it, and haven’t counted it up myself before.)

  135. the majority of consumers of the music are whites living in the suburbs. yep, megan and marty in suburbia usa are what’s keeping the rap and hip hop nation afloat, and driving a lot of what is heard on top 40 radio’ ¦

    Your link doesn’t back this up. Do you have another link?

    Also, rap and hiphop are force-fed to young people on radio and on cellphones and award shows and just about everywhere. IMO. I feel that corporations have made it popular, and clear channel.

    Personally I hate it. Especially rap.

    I see a lot of people driving by with loud rap music blaring, and the majority aren’t white suburban kids. Just saying, I’ve heard this myth before but I don’t really believe it. Not that it matters, just that I hate to see things stated without something to back them up with facts. I think this one is a myth. But as for buying the music? Yes I’m sure a lot of white teens do buy it. But again, a lot of them are heavily influenced to like it by mtv and other shows and clear channel radio channels. I don’t think a lot of kids are exposed to a variety of music if they listen to the radio and watch mtv etc. A lot of black people don’t like rap either, and a lot of black mothers don’t like their kids listening to it or acting like gangsters and thugs.

  136. p.s. “Lowest common denominator” doesn’t mean “poor people.” It can mean a lot of things, like uneducated, unsophisticated, young, people, and other things. Like many popular movies appeal to 12 year old boys, i.e. the lowest common denominator. Does not mean poor.

  137. Now that everyone is gone, I will come back with my tail between my legs and apologize for my earlier, very OTT radio remark. I had a point, stated it very very badly and offended people I had no business offending. So please accept my apologies….and I will try to do better in the future.

    Diarrhea of the brain and the fingers is not pretty. Can we be friends again?

  138. Next if Breakaway does not fit the Oscar rules, then it is not a comparable comparison. Neither is Jennifer Hudson song. There is a reason that Oscar made the rules. Including a hit from a totally different genre that has already been successful is stacking the deck. That is like including a ringer in a sports team of amateurs.

    Breakaway was never released by Avril. It was dropped from her album and shopped around, so I’m not sure why that makes it a ringer from another event. It sounds a lot like TfM (shopped around and included in a movie soundtrack).

    But, okay, I’ll bite. If we say that there is no other Idol single that has ever been released that fits EXACTLY the same condition as TfM, Tfm has the bestest [sic] sales performance of any song in its class. It also has the worst. So, everybody wins! Yay!

    I think I’m going to have to get dingo set me up with a valium drip for Wednesday. And MJ better double my current salary.

  139. Jeez. As an Adam fan, I’m more than happy to concede he has a tiny fanbase (much smaller than Cook’s.) Good news for me, I can enjoy him more and share him less. Of course, I have no real evidence of this or basis by which to compare or make the claim. And, as a practical matter, I never will. But, based on what I’ve seen, I think it’s likely, so I declare it to be so. And, so it is.

    This is the funniest thing I have seen all day. Thank You.

    Thank you also. But scandalous to concede(although not really) that David’s is larger than Adam’s. What is David’s shoe size?

  140. Jeez. As an Adam fan, I’m more than happy to concede he has a tiny fanbase (much smaller than Cook’s.) Good news for me, I can enjoy him more and share him less. Of course, I have no real evidence of this or basis by which to compare or make the claim. And, as a practical matter, I never will. But, based on what I’ve seen, I think it’s likely, so I declare it to be so. And, so it is.

    Your right, as a Adam Fan we will concede his fanbase is really, really small. It’s probably bigger than Lil’s and smaller than Megans. I am only making a educated guess of course, since all you need to estimate is an imagination. I guess you, I and his handful of fans won’t have to worry about shoving people out of the way to get tickets to his concert or to buy his music. I guess if his music don’t sell, he will probably be opening for Michael Sarver at the county fair. Oh well, I do like corn dogs and candy apples.

  141. Thank you also. But scandalous to concede(although not really) that David’s is larger than Adam’s. What is David’s shoe size?

    LOL! It’s kind of bizarre. It’s as if Kris doesn’t even exist, and now Adam is being pitted against David Cook in the battle for the title of “Best Male Idol EVAH.” :)

  142. This is the funniest thing I have seen all day. Thank You.

    Wow, high praise indeed, cuz this has been a helluva funny day here to me! Do me a favor and stop reading NOW. I’d hate to be “topped.” :-)

    What is David’s shoe size?

    NGL, I believe the two share a size, but of course, not a shoe. Adam’s are all glittery… and sometimes shiny red. So, again, no comparable basis. Really, it’s just simpler to accept it and not question. ;-)

    ETA:

    I guess if his music don’t sell, he will probably be opening for Michael Sarver at the county fair. Oh well, I do like corn dogs and candy apples.

    OK, that’s good. But how do you feel about deep fried oreos, or Reese’s? You may not realize it, but this could be important to my overall analysis.

  143. NGL, I believe the two share a size, but of course, not a shoe. Adam’s are all glittery’ ¦ and sometimes shiny red. So, again, no comparable basis. Really, it’s just simpler to accept it and not question.

    I don’t know how to do smileys. But this is so funny. So it all comes down to technique. YMMV.

  144. For me, it’s going to be interesting to see what the future holds in terms of success with record sales for Adam. (Big Adam fan here btw!) Ancdeotally, I found that many of his fans were women, 35+ y.o. Many spoke of falling back in love with the music from their teens when they watched Adam on AI. They loved what Adam sang on AI; songs from classic rock. They loved not only Adam’s incredible voice but his ability to entertain and perform. How will that translate on his new cd with fans outside the AI bubble? Will his diehard AI fanbase like the type of music he puts out if it’s dissimilar to the type of music he sang on AI? Will they buy his cd if it’s more like current music..some of which AI fans said they do not like.? Will people who have not seen Adam perform buy his music? Adam has the infamous “It Factor”. His fans talk about his charm, his looks, his intelligence, his ability to interview so well. When his single drops, people who have never seen or heard him interviewed, will rely only on if they like the song he puts out. Is it their musical taste? Is it a good song? Does his voice come through or is it competing with studio electronics? Who knows? What I do know is, Adam has been in the media quite a bit b/c he has that “It” going for him along with his talent. That gets him in the door. I believe he is getting pretty good exposure with TFM being attached to TII. My prediction is that TFM will do well. I think that Simon Cowell predicts relatively well (as he did with Carrie), and when he connected Adam to worldwide stardom, he is right. As big as Adam may do here in the US, I think he may do even better overseas. JMHO.

  145. Also, rap and hiphop are force-fed to young people on radio and on cellphones and award shows and just about everywhere. IMO. I feel that corporations have made it popular, and clear channel.

    When I was in middle school (a long time ago) many of us white suburban kids cultivated a true love for the Sugar Hill Gang and Grand Master Flash. No one needed to be force fed Kool Moe Dee, or Run DMC or Snoopdog. That shit was just good.

    So please accept my apologies’ ¦.and I will try to do better in the future.

    Bygones :)

  146. Fanbase discussion, shoe size………

    O. M. G.

    Poor Bridget, if you are not aware of the “fanbase” thread on DCO…. this discussion will not make sense.

    Dying and rolling on the floor.

    Leaving now, but with a smile on my face. (David’s fanbase will do that to you. ;) )

  147. So I’ll jump on the HAC adds for Kris that BeckyMD posted (I’ve been watching these obsessively as well). After reading the headache-inducing debate and stressing about cash flow all day, I’m ready for some flail and a glass of wine.

    Yesterday, I pathetically spent some time tracking the starters for LLWD for both HAC and Top 40, and compared those stations to the adds previously published. For HAC first, since those adds closed today, 15 stations spun LLWD for the first time last week – of those, 11 had not officially added the song yet. I thought it would be interesting to see how many of those 11 would add LLWD today; turns out of the 8 adds today, only two of them were on my list of the 11 starters as reported on All Access. 5 of the other adds have not played the song at all, but one has played the crap out of it – they must have been playing it for at least two weeks but for some reason haven’t added it yet. IDEK what this means at the end of a long day, but I find it interesting to watch and ponder over.

    I am poised with pencil for tomorrow’s Top 40 adds. 12 Top 40 stations spun it for the first time last week; 8 of those haven’t added it yet.

    By the way, Jive still has the Kris banner at the top of the page on All Access – over 2 weeks now?

  148. AO is down, speculation they are preparing to release the single.

  149. Okay, just ewww on the fanbase stuff. I can’t even believe his people let that crap stay on his official site.

    No offense, but those types of conversations just skeeve me out.

  150. Eileen99, I’ve started dabbling in watching those adds/spins, too. It’s a fascinating business. Watching how a record comes to life. I’ve never known nor cared before the last few weeks how that happens.

  151. Interesting, DCO is down, too. So maybe the RCA server is down?

    Well, Daughtryofficial is up so that’s not it.

  152. You know what all these numbers mean to me?

    Kris Allen: ‘Thank you for my 9 cents.’
    (In response to Michael Slezak when he told him he personally bought ‘Live Like We’re Dying’)

    Which immediately sent my brain to ‘Billy the Mountain’ … my #1 favourite Frank Zappa satirical song of all time. (royalty check is in honey)

    ‘I gave him the money
    He acted real funny
    He hacked up a rock and
    It totaled my car’

    What am I saying? That while it’s all interesting in a way, it doesn’t matter much to me. But those royalty checks (or 9 cents X ###) eventually land on these artists doorsteps. And it’s all good.

    Now I am going to petition iTunes to provide ‘Billy The Mountain’ for download. It’s a travesty.

  153. I know zip about music and am still in the 70’s and 80’s,lol.
    SpenserJ: that!

    I just checked TFMs video. Comments about Adam’s voice and the song itself were overall +. That’s not to say Adam’s fans are not the ones posting the comments. Not sure if 19 is going to promote the song, if it will get radio play and why 19 would distance themselves. Maybe they want Adam to go in another direction musically like dance type music?
    I don’t know. I think the song would do well if it was on the radio.

    Haven’t heard many comments about Allison’s new single. I love her, love her unique voice but don’t love that type of song (for her). May do very well though and get her name out there.

    I personally love when Adam and Allison gave a nod to the classic rock sounding songs. For me it fits their voices nicely but would it sell today?

    Kris: Rickey Minor said that Kris was a quiet storm, meaning you don’t see or hear him coming but when he does….! Rickey said this before Kris won. I say give LLWD time, it will do well. It’s a catchy, radio friendly song that he sings well.

    I also wonder what Danny’s up to? He can sing and depending on what he puts out I think he will do well. Overall, I really feel the top four will have success!

  154. No offense, but those types of conversations just skeeve me out.

    That’s actually NOT what I was talking about. You’ll notice all the early talk about how the initial sales of TfM show how Adam’s fanbase is smaller than expected? Particularly compared to the initial weeks’ sales from the Davids? And all the point, counterpoint, speculative analysis and inexact comparisons offered to shore up the point. I was offering a parody. Go back, you’ll see.

  155. re: Adam fanbase vs. Cook fanbase. I think David Cook has a bigger fanbase in the US where snooze Nickelback-like rock really seems to appeal to people but I think Adam has a bigger chance to be a hit overseas, parts of Europe specifically. But meh, I don’t really care if DC has a bigger fanbase, he won after all… what matters is based on the producers he’s working with, I’m pretty sure I’ll enjoy Adam’s music far more than Cook’s snooze “rock.”

  156. I was offering a parody. Go back, you’ll see.

    I get it now. You scared me there for a minute :)

    This thread is just so damn confusing. I really was trying to follow along. But I still have no idea how long it should take a song to get to a successful place, or what is a good or bad sign. I’m hopeless at this stuff. Perhaps I should just check back in a month when we have more info LOL.

  157. I’m rather liking following this stuff this year when I don’t have a dog in the hunt, so to speak. I know a lot more than I did a year or so ago, but I’m not invested.

    I don’t think that there is any sort of rule for how long it should take for a song to get to a successful place. It in part depends on the kind of song and artist (pop versus rock versus country versus R&B). It in part depends on the experience that an artist has getting previous radio play. Sure, you can’t really compare a top Idol contestant to a brand-new artist—that contestant had Idol as a launching pad. At the same time, even a top Idol contestant will have had only limited radio airplay before sending out that first single from his/her debut CD—coronation single (if s/he got one and if it took off) and maybe some spins for an Idol song. So, the contestant is not a proven commodity for radio, and radio may be slower to adopt a song than if it were done by an established star.

    I’d say that LLWD is in a wait-and-see place. It didn’t leap up the charts, but it is still growing and is charting well on one mainstream format (HAC), and I do think that it will at least chart on Top 40. [Basically, once the Cumulus stations came on board, it increased the likelihood of that quite a bit.] Its sales are not terribly strong to date, but there is time as airplay continues to grow. The hope is that airplay (and, therefore, consciousness of Kris as an artist with new music out) will grow as he approaches his album release date, and that his airplay stays pretty strong through the holiday season, when record sales are at their peak for the year.

    Glad to see Already Gone doing so well—it may be my personal favorite song that she’s released, although what I’d really like to buy is that acoustic version that she’s been singing live.

  158. When I was in middle school (a long time ago) many of us white suburban kids cultivated a true love for the Sugar Hill Gang and Grand Master Flash. No one needed to be force fed Kool Moe Dee, or Run DMC or Snoopdog. That shit was just good.

    Yep, some good shit.

  159. When I was in middle school (a long time ago) many of us white suburban kids cultivated a true love for the Sugar Hill Gang and Grand Master Flash. No one needed to be force fed Kool Moe Dee, or Run DMC or Snoopdog. That shit was just good.

    Yep, some good shit.

    Yep, count me in as someone who enjoys good hip hop and good rap. I even confess to liking some of the corporate hip/hop on pop radio today. Guilty pleasure. *shrug*

    How can you not shake your booty to a song like this. ;-)
    Seems appropriate for this discussion.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ut6J9jSnh4

    ETA: Flo Rida is a good example of a guilty pleasure. Songs are brilliant pop tunes, combining elements of hip hop, expert sampling and infectous beats. Great singing? No, but who cares?

  160. Aaah I’ve missed the snarking around here – been busy with other interests.

    I had to laugh at the Lambert peeps snarking at the Cook peeps because hello, the same guy who produced Cook is producing Lambert – I saw a lot of song writing credits from Cavallo too. He is clearly a guy with musical range given his resume. I mean shoot he produced Paris Hilton’s album. What was he thinking? He is a brave man.

    I was watching the So You Think You Can Dance Canada finale, great show and I hadn’t heard David Cook’s voice in a while, they played TML during one of the recap montages and I was reminded of how great that voice is – he makes it all sound so effortless.

    But I guess Idol 8 is hitting or due to hit the charts so let the games begin.

    PS I love Flo Rida too, he’s got a good formula. Sometimes music can be totally frivolous and vacuous but it is just when it all starts to sound the same. Frankly I have not listened to music radio for a few months – it was starting to get cloyingly monotonous. Rather listen to my CDs.

  161. I had to laugh at the Lambert peeps snarking at the Cook peeps because hello, the same guy who produced Cook is producing Lambert

    The producers/writers they’re working with on individual tracks can’t be anymore different. By your own example, he also produced Paris Hilton’s album so does that mean Cook/Lambert fans can’t snark on Paris’ “music” anymore just coz the same guy produced their albums? I don’t get it.

  162. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ut6J9jSnh4

    ETA: Flo Rida is a good example of a guilty pleasure. Songs are brilliant pop tunes, combining elements of hip hop, expert sampling and infectous beats. Great singing? No, but who cares?

    Aw PJ, that was a lovely gift, Thanks :)

    I too find Flo Rida to be a great guilty pleasure. I love fun music. Doesn’t always need to be deep for me.

  163. I see a lot of people driving by with loud rap music blaring, and the majority aren’t white suburban kids.

    i live in the south, and i see a whole heap of white, asian, and latino kids pumping the heck out of rap and hip hop from their car speakers, and embracing what they think is the hip hop culture… whether anecdotal or not, looking at the population percentages alone would tell you that if it were solely black folks and kids buying rap and hip hop, it couldn’t be enough to sustain it’s reach and penetration into almost every aspect of our culture… it has to have found a much broader audience beyond the core, over these many years, in order to pull this off… this link may be more to your liking.. in the end, we can agree to disagree, based on a lot of factors, but i’ll go with my common sense on this one…

    http://poplicks.com/2005/06/who-buys-hip-hop.html

  164. Looks like 2 Top 40 adds for Kris this week:

    KUDD-FM Salt Lake City 30
    WXLK-FM Roanoke, VA 111

    He’s been added on 39 Top 40 stations now. A few other stations are playing LLWD at least once a day.

  165. Adds close at 3pm PST, CathyMK. He got 7 Top 40 adds this week, plus the 8 HAC = 15 adds.

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