Idol Sales News – Week Ending 10/11/09

Sales numbers for the Billboard Release Date 10/24/2009 after the jump.

Download Numbers
22 Carrie Underwood “Cowboy Casanova” 53, 687 (-18%; lw 65, 816) Total: 229, 739 (13)
26 Kelly Clarkson “Already Gone” 47, 040 (8%; lw 43, 737) Total: 480, 649 (25)

Glee
12 Glee Cast “It’s My Life/Confessions Part II” 74, 400 (NEW) Total: 74, 400 (NEW)
15 Glee Cast “Halo/Walking on Sunshine” 62, 511 (NEW) Total: 62, 511 (NEW)
34 Glee Cast “Somebody to Love” 34, 143 (-56%; lw 77, 799) Total: 141, 187 (10)
81 Glee Cast “No Air” 19, 498 (NEW) Total: 19, 498 (NEW)
86 Glee Cast “Keep Holding On” 19, 029 (NEW) Total: 19, 029 (NEW)

Albums
51 Daughtry “Leave This Town” 11, 523 (-20%; lw 15, 789) Total: 687K Digital: 1K (-12%) Total:126K (42)
94 Kelly Clarkson “All I Ever Wanted” 6, 140 (13%; lw 5, 414) Total: 723K Digital: 1K (29%) Total: 156K (100)
135 Blake Lewis “Heartbreak on Vinyl” 4, 205 (NEW) 4K – 89 on digital Albums Chart (1K) (NEW)
Kellie Pickler “Kellie Pickler” 3K (-2%; lw 2, 960) Total: 320K (180)
Carrie Underwood “Carnival Ride” 3K (-7%) Total: 2.975M
Carrie Underwood “Some Hearts” 2K (-6%) Total: 6.848M

Idol related Albums
Various “WOW Hits 2010” 14K (NEW) Total 14K
Various “Now That’s What I Call Music! 31” 14K (-11%; lw 15K) Total: 712K
Various “Now That’s What I Call Country Vol. 2” 9K (-15%; lw 10K) Total: 119K
Various “Now That’s What I Call Club Hits” 6K (-41%; lw 11K) Total: 31K
Soundtrack “Hannah Montana 3” 6K (-17%; lw 7K) Total: 463K
Various “Now That’s What I Call Music! 30” 3K (-10%; lw 4K) Total: 706K

Rounded numbers from Brian at Idol Chatter.

Please post numbers as you find them. Thanks!

About Kirsten 3046 Articles
Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.

84 Comments

  1. Airplay before recurrents are removed (increase in audience impressions)
    No. 22 – Kelly Clarkson (+8.0 million) – lw 38
    No. 30 – Carrie Underwood (+3.5 million) – lw 37
    No. 135 – Michael Jackson (+12.2 million) This Is It – New
    No. 421 – Kris Allen (+1.3 million) – lw 689

    And Streaming:
    No. 10 Already Gone – lw 11

  2. Anticipating the questions.

    The early leaks of download numbers only includes songs in the Top 50 or showing strong gains in the Top 200. We will have to wait until Brian posts his numbers on Idol Chatter before we get all the Idol download numbers.

    Recurrent means songs that have been retired from the chart (either due to length or combination of length and falling ranking). Old songs/albums whatever are retired to give room for new songs. One exception is downloaded songs where songs as old as dirt can chart. Albums do not have that exception and old albums that see a surge in sales end up on the Catalogue chart.

  3. Where are Kris’s numbers? Would anything show up for Allison since she was put on itunes and then, yanked off? I wouldn’t suspect it would show. What about Jason or Jordin?

  4. alaadam- Kirsten stated in her second post that these numbers only include songs in the top 50 or top 200 for airplay.

    It will be interesting to see how Kris charts as he gets more airplay. He obviously does not have the fan base people think he did, but this is a good opportunity for him to emerge as a new artist. I hope he can do it.

  5. It’s nice to see that Already Gone is selling so well. Another gold single for Kelly!

    Yay Kelly! Wooo-hoo!

  6. Some BB200 numbers have leaked. KISS really faded in the home stretch and Michael Buble pulled out a come from behind victory (dropped his album on a Friday),

    1) Michael Buble ‘“ Crazy Love ‘“ 131,539
    2) Kiss ‘“ Sonic Boom ‘“ 108,134

    No debut numbers for Blake, yet.

  7. Nice numbers for Kelly.

    Really strong numbers for “Crazy Love”.

    They moved up the released date for the Twillight New Moon album to 10/16/09 (from Tuesday 10/22/09). It will be another Friday release. Official statement:

    But when you’re dealing with anything “Twilight”-related, the old rules don’t apply. According to a press release issued on Tuesday (October 13), due to “overwhelming and unprecedented” demand, the release date for the soundtrack to “New Moon” is being pushed up by four days from its original October 20 release to this Friday, October 16.

    I think it was strategic — not due to demand, which didn’t just happen this week.

    Link to ful article.

  8. Another Friday release? These things are becoming common. I wonder what the business case for them are.

    I think it was strategic ‘” not due to demand, which didn’t just happen this week.

    Well, I suppose it helps to create buzz. So popular we had to release it early!!!11!!ELEVENTY-ONE!!! Those Twilight fans are pretty intense, though.

  9. Did Brian forget Battlefield again? LOL Maybe this time it’s really out of the BB200.
    4 of the top 5 albums are Various…

  10. Where are Kris’s on Brian’s site? Does this mean he sold less than Blake or did he overlook him?

    NVM I guess this is for Album sales. I guess singles would be different.

  11. The early leaks of download numbers only includes songs in the Top 50 or showing strong gains in the Top 200.

    Below is LLWD the week before last download.

    63 Kris Allen ‘Live Like We’re Dying’  23,552 (49%; lw 15,755) Total: 39,307 (93)

    It seems it didn’t make to the top 50 or get strong gains. My guess is the number is lower than last week, maybe around 20,000.

  12. It seems it didn’t make to the top 50 or get strong gains. My guess is the number is lower than last week, maybe around 20,000.

    Maybe with the itunes pass download, but based on the itunes ranking the estimates I’ve seem at pulse and twop, I think, were of no more or around 10,000, as far as i remember. Hope they are wrong.

  13. Not completely Idol related, but Britney becomes the first artist since the string of AI contestants to debut at number 1 on the Hot 100 this week. The last artist to do that was Taylor Hicks with his coronation single.

  14. Maybe with the itunes pass download, but based on the itunes ranking the estimates I’ve seem at pulse and twop, I think, were of no more than 10,000.

    How do you know this? Why can’t we have some concrete numbers? Surely, someone has them.

  15. If Battlefield fell out of the BB200 is Jive going to keep pumping money into singles for Jordin? Unbelievable.

  16. If Battlefield fell out of the BB200 is Jive going to keep pumping money into singles for Jordin? Unbelievable.

    I’m curious to see what they’ll do next. She has a new single now, it’s going slowly but it has been released a few weeks ago, so I guess they’ll keep pushing that one. It will probably depend on how S.O.S does and if it puts the album back on BB200.
    As cheap as a label may be I just can’t imagine them being happy with an album that can’t even sell 200k.

  17. If Battlefield fell out of the BB200 is Jive going to keep pumping money into singles for Jordin? Unbelievable.

    They might. They spent some cash on her album this time around (well, for Jive anyway), she seemed like a sure bet. They need to make some of that money back. Jordin is capable of having high selling pop hits. I could see them promoting her next song – it got a good bit of adds yesterday – and seeing how things shape up after Christmas. If she gets enough of a boost from holiday sales and if SOS is looking like a hit, I think Jive will keep plugging away at it.

  18. How do you know this? Why can’t we have some concrete numbers? Surely, someone has them.

    I dont have any idea, but a lot of people follow itunes top 100 and, comparing with other singles that are in a similar position, estimate a number. I am not capable of that… But its just a guess, maybe an educated one but nnetheless a guess.

    I doubt, however, that sales were near 20000, bc the itunes ranking was far lower than the week before (in which it spent most days between #20-#70) that accounted for 23,000.

    The itunes pass initialy didnt include LLWD, at least it was what fans though, but it suddenly downloaded it on last Sunday or Monday, dont remember. So it has to counted as sales, no? It has to be counted as something…

  19. How do you know this? Why can’t we have some concrete numbers? Surely, someone has them.

    LLWD fell down the itunes chart last week to out of the top 100 so 10/15K seems a reasonable guess

  20. I don’t think he forgot. I think Battlefield fell out of the BB200.

    He forgot Battlefield last week, so it’s possible he did again this week. It was number 157 last week.

    If Battlefield fell out of the BB200 is Jive going to keep pumping money into singles for Jordin? Unbelievable.

    But her singles all sell at least 1 million. They may have concluded that she is a singles artist and they’ve found a strategy where they can break even on that. Or maybe they will only make a half-hearted attempt at supporting SOS.

  21. So it has to counted as sales, no?

    I don’t think so.

    When you pre-order an album on iTunes, you sometimes get a single for “free”. What they do is charge you for that single and then decrement that cost when they “deliver” the album. That single is counted as sold and is added to the singles total. If you cancel the pre-order, all you pay is the price of the single and the single continues to be counted as sold. If you receive your pre-ordered iTunes album, you are charged the price of the album minus the price of the single. The single is considered to have been returned. Sometimes, when an album is released, the lead-off singles sold that week actually go negative.

    As I understand it, Season’s Passes are different. You pay the cost upfront (somebody who bought one, confirm this). Then, as material becomes available, you download it. Therefore, the Season Pass holders aren’t buying the single, they are just receiving partial shipment of their album. The singles delivered to Season Pass holders will never be counted seperately.

    In other words, we can make no judgments about the sales of Kris’s Seasons Passes based on his numbers this week.

  22. so where do we think Kris’s numbers on the song stand so far? Total?

    Around 50,000, it seems… guessing last week numbers

  23. If Battlefield fell out of the BB200 is Jive going to keep pumping money into singles for Jordin? Unbelievable.

    Well, she’s selling singles, right? Maybe it makes economic sense for Jive to keep pushing singles, and provided they’re hits, she’ll sell like 3 million singles for them with this album. Though, if 10 single downloads = 1 album equivalent, 3 million singles = ~30K albums, which doesn’t sound like that much?

  24. Though, if 10 single downloads = 1 album equivalent, 3 million singles = ~30K albums, which doesn’t sound like that much?

    3M/10=300K

    Plus, they are those $1.29 singles. I believe that the label gets a bigger percentage of that extra 30 cents than it does the original 99 cents.

  25. But her singles all sell at least 1 million. They may have concluded that she is a singles artist and they’ve found a strategy where they can break even on that. Or maybe they will only make a half-hearted attempt at supporting SOS.

    True dat. I wish I knew where the break even point was. That much quoted article about Jive’s legendary cheapness/ability to turn a profit on nothing referenced a guy that only sold a tiny bit of albums but had a smash hit song that was a ringtone download monster. Battlefield is a hit but it’s not a OMG Smash 2 mil + seller, and I have no idea if its a big ringtone mover. I don’t know if the same rules apply to her situation. Don’t get me wrong, shes not getting dropped, she has the potential to have a smash… but still.

  26. I purchased the Season Pass. When I didn’t get LLWD, I went and downloaded it. When it became available the other day, I got a notice that it was available with my season pass and figured, well, I’ll download it again. It wouldn’t let me, it told me I already bought it. Obviously, when I bought it the first time, it must have counted. But what happens now? Did they return it because it’s part of the album. Did they not count it the first time after all because it’s partial shipment of my album? Anyone know?

    ETA: Duh, it seems Kirsten already answered above. Sorry. And yes, you pay for the Season Pass up front. Itunes emails you when new content is available.

  27. 3M/10=300K

    LMAO, I’m an idiot. I was thinking it looked too small. Yeah, 300K is probably worth it. And with the $1.29 pricing, maybe it’s more like 7 singles = 1 album, which makes it even better.

  28. As I understand it, Season’s Passes are different. You pay the cost upfront (somebody who bought one, confirm this). Then, as material becomes available, you download it. Therefore, the Season Pass holders aren’t buying the single, they are just receiving partial shipment of their album. The singles delivered to Season Pass holders will never be counted seperately.

    Thanks Kirsten. Can buyers return Season’s Passes and get partial refund?

  29. Can buyers return Season’s Passes and get partial refund?

    IDK. I suspect not. iTunes doesn’t really seem to support the concept of returns. Plus, what are they going to charge you for a photo, a couple of tour videos and two songs?

    Has anybody ever tried?

    I know they have Season’s Passes for television shows (sometimes I’m tempted, but it seems a better deal to wait. Plus, I don’t know if you get any bonus features). Maybe somebody has bailed on one of those.

  30. LMAO, I’m an idiot. I was thinking it looked too small. Yeah, 300K is probably worth it. And with the $1.29 pricing, maybe it’s more like 7 singles = 1 album, which makes it even better.

    Well… I don’t think 300K is worth it. They probably paid a big chunk of that to Ryan Tedder and T-Pain just for contributing tracks, if not more. Not to mention all the other songwriters/producers, recording studio fees…. her album has to cost around a million to record, right? At least 750K. And then there’s promo costs. Even done on the cheap with product endorsements and the like, it still ain’t free. Jordin has only a very few songwriting credits, so there’s not much to recoup from her royalties there. A female solo pop star who is not a songwriter is the one of the most expensive acts there is. She hasn’t headlined a tour or pulled any major endorsements. Now ringtones and song liscensing bring in more revenue, so there’s that. And maybe they are planning to put her on a solo tour. But she has to generate more cash in the long run, I suspect. Way more.

  31. If Battlefield fell out of the BB200 is Jive going to keep pumping money into singles for Jordin? Unbelievable.

    Well, I wonder if it’s possible that some companies are just figuring that the future is singles and tours, and albums will be nothing at all, maybe won’t even exist for most performers? I’ve certainly heard that proposed as a possible wave of the future, anyway.

    So if you’ve got an artist who really sells those singles, then maybe you’d figure — Hey, let’s see if we can keep a career going here with just single after single after single….and maybe not even *do* an “album” the next time. After all, if people would actually spend $1.29 per single on, say, 8 singles over a year-and-a-half to two-year period, plus maybe buy a tour ticket as well, then you’d be making just as much money as you would have if they’d bought an album ….

    No guarantee that people actually *would* do this, of course, if it became the norm. … Plus, I’m not sure how it could actually become the norm because most people only buy the singles that become huge earworms on the radio, and there’s only a limited amount of bandwidth for that to happen in — and of course there’s the little matter of Jordin’s (and other people’s) singles taking from six months to a couple of years apiece to *go* platinum …. Still, I don’t know that just having a slow-selling album will necessarily doom you at the moment, given the way the music industry is shifting around under the labels’ feet….

  32. Jordin has only a very few songwriting credits, so there’s not much to recoup from her royalties there.

    The nice thing about writing songs is that they are not subject to recoupment. Any money that Jordin makes writing the song, she gets to keep (less the cut that the publishing company, her manager and various hangers-on get).

    Recoupment for the singing is something fierce. And they even hold money over from one album to another in case the next one is a flop (she may still have money in the kitty from the last one).

    They probably paid a big chunk of that to Ryan Tedder and T-Pain just for contributing tracks, if not more.

    The artist pays the producer (they actually hire the producer with the blessing of the record company). The record company gives the artist an advance of X. The artist uses X to feed themselves and make an album (sometimes, they spend it all on booze and blow. Record companies don’t like that). They may pay the producer an upfront fee. They must pay for the studio time and musicians. Then, when the album gets sold, the record company needs to get all of their advance money back. the producer gets a percentage of the Artist’s royalty for each unit moved. So, Artists should make sure that the producer royalty gets paid by the record company until the Artist starts getting paid royalties (the producer royalties will of course be recouped) or the end up in the sad position of having to send the producer money for each unit sold when they aren’t actually making any money themselves.

    Writing royalties are mechanical royalties and the rates are set by congress and based on the length of the song.

  33. Well’ ¦ I don’t think 300K is worth it. They probably paid a big chunk of that to Ryan Tedder and T-Pain just for contributing tracks, if not more. Not to mention all the other songwriters/producers, recording studio fees’ ¦. her album has to cost around a million to record, right? At least 750K. And then there’s promo costs. […]A female solo pop star who is not a songwriter is the one of the most expensive acts there is.

    Hmm, I thought a lot of female solo pop stars don’t sell gold… Also, I think Jordin has some international recognition, so who knows. This album for sure won’t make Jive the money the last one did, but I dunno, maybe they’ll make some money yet? Her name is starting to get out there, and there’s value in that, so I don’t see Jive abandoning Jordin soon. They just gotta figure out creative ways to make buck on someone who can’t move albums.

    Thanks for the album costs 101, Kirsten. Very informative.

  34. Only sorta pertaining to Idol numbers but Britney’s “3” debuted #1 on the Hot 100. The last song to do that was Do I Make You Proud. Crazy that it took 3 years for another song to do that!

  35. Lucy: She’s not likely making a profit with the revenue she’s generating right now. She needs to generate more revenue. I’m sure Jive would like her to make them some more money, even if it came from old, “obsolete”, but highly profitable albums. LOL.

    I don’t think labels are worried about how anybody makes them a profit, as long as they make it. They will plan to make cash in whatever way makes sense for that artist.

    Artists with Jordin’s track record at pop generally sell more albums that she did. It is highly likely that Jive did not expect her to break the bank on album sales, but they did not expect her to tank it either.

    The singles only future for pop stars is not here yet. Right now, Jordin probably needs to kick it up a notch.

    I still think she is in no danger of getting dropped.

  36. The nice thing about writing songs is that they are not subject to recoupment.

    Record companies do typically get a cut of some of the publishing royalties. Not all but some. There are 2 kinds, mechanicals and songwriting (?) and they started getting a cut years ago on one, I don’ remember which. Bastards. LOL.

    Hmm, I thought a lot of female solo pop stars don’t sell gold’ ¦ Also, I think Jordin has some international recognition, so who knows. This album for sure won’t make Jive the money the last one did, but I dunno, maybe they’ll make some money yet? Her name is starting to get out there, and there’s value in that, so I don’t see Jive abandoning Jordin soon.

    Female pop stars with 3 big pop hits generally do not have trouble cracking 100K. They may not have planned on platinum but they didn’t plan on this. They can also usually tour. So Jordin has some work to do, IMO. Now she may be doing well internationally, and that would be a BIG help, since lots of labels are looking to break acts internationally for the additional revnue.

    I don’t think they are going to abandon her. I never said they were. I just dont think a platinum Battlefield is enough by itself without something else, also they are going to have to try other things, just like you said. I think we mostly agree.

  37. If they are taking the same track with Kris, slow as we go, should we be worried?

  38. If they are taking the same track with Kris, slow as we go, should we be worried?

    way too early i would say

  39. If they are taking the same track with Kris, slow as we go, should we be worried?

    About what?

    Different strategies for different labels. Sony obviously likes how Barry works because they gave him a promotion. Jive is more frugal which results in fewer big splashes, but it also results in a lot fewer bombs. You only need to be a moderate splash to stay signed with them and that’s all fans should really hope for, IMO. To keep getting music.

    Plus, the lead-off single just went for adds yesterday. Let’s give it some time.

  40. iTunes pass downloads of LLWD will not count as singles sales.

    sorry if this has been answered…but why did the iTunes pass holders receive LLWD so late? the single droped on a friday and i didnt get an email notice until this Monday…hasnt the single been out for at least two weeks??

  41. Not only is Jordin selling singles, which is what everybody else is doing right now, but she’s also been touring non-stop with some very big acts, so Jive is making money off of her.

    It’s a singles market, nobody is selling albums at the rate that they once did, U2’s current album just went platinum after being out for a whole year. Labels have to figure out how to make the most off of singles, or how to release albums that people want to buy.

  42. Female pop stars with 3 big pop hits generally do not have trouble cracking 100K.

    But she hasn’t had 3 hits on this album yet. Maybe Jive is hoping she’ll hit a critical point after one or two more hit singles, and then people will start buying the album? I mean, it took Lady Gaga a while to take off in album sales even after her first hit single, right? (Of course, now she’s unstoppable). But yes, we mostly agree.

    she’s also been touring non-stop with some very big acts, so Jive is making money off of her.

    I’ve learned here that opening for huge acts generally means you’re happy for the exposure and making very little money outside of merch sales.

  43. But she hasn’t had 3 hits on this album yet.

    No I meant someone who had 3 big hits off her last album would be expected to sell more albums than she is, even in a slow albums market.

    Maybe Jive is hoping she’ll hit a critical point after one or two more hit singles, and then people will start buying the album? I mean, it took Lady Gaga a while to take off in album sales even after her first hit single, right? (Of course, now she’s unstoppable).

    I think that could indeed be the strategy.

    Lady Gaga was a new artist, I highly suspect no one expects her (or Katy Perry for that matter) to sell like Jordin next time around. That’s what I’m trying to say

    But yes, we mostly agree.

    Yup! I think so.

    It’s a singles market, nobody is selling albums at the rate that they once did,

    True, but she’s doing worse than what could be expected even in this market. U2 doesn’t have a song on the radio and a recent track record of high profile pop hits, they are at “selling to your existing fanbase” phase. And there’s nothing wrong with that.

    To clarify:

    I am not saying Jordin will get dropped. I don’t think her career is over. I think she has a great track record at selling singles. I think Jive will keep her on the strength of that. I think Jordin will end up on her own tour or something. But I don’t think, at this point in time, Battlefield’s sales alone are making Jive a ton of cash. I think they will find a way to correct the problem, but as of now, she has to up her revenue. The end. LOL.

    Of course I could be wrong.

  44. Jordin’s situation really perplexes me. She has had 4 straight Top 10 (CHR) hits on the radio and a platinum debut record, but this second album can barely move units? Do you think radio stations are just predisposed to play her songs (which then prompts the high single sales) or people just like her songs without liking her? I have no idea.

  45. I got a question and I hope someone can answer me. If a person on Itunes buys say 3 singles off of someones album and then eventually gets the rest of the album. (Itunes prorates the album-minus the single you bought) then does that become counted as a record sale that week? or if someone buys each track separately over a 10 week period does the final purchase then become counted as a full album sale. Just curious. Thanks in advance to whoever can answer this question.

  46. I think she has a great track record at selling singles. I think Jive will keep her on the strength of that. I think Jordin will end up on her own tour or something. But I don’t think, at this point in time, Battlefield’s sales alone are making Jive a ton of cash. I think they will find a way to correct the problem, but as of now, she has to up her revenue. The end. LOL.

    Of course I could be wrong.

    Seems right to me. But I also think that they don’t know — at this point — just how to go about correcting the problem, right?

    I mean, the day of the singles-only artist may not have come, but are we sure that they’re sure of that? And that they won’t try it for lack of other options? And do they have a lot of alternatives? There’s the solo-tour-with-merchandise option, of course, which seems to be the big go-to thing these days, based on my limited knowledge of this subject … but what else?

    And I kind of have my doubts about Jordin as a big solo draw or a big merchandise seller. That’s been my question about Jordin all along at pop — I don’t see anything aspirational about her image for the pop audience.

    She’s too much the good girl, average body but pretty face, outspokenly conservative Christian, tame kid for me to think that a lot of younguns are going to flock to see her on a solo bill and buy her t-shirts and fashion line and such. She actually looks and acts just like most of them in their real lives, seems to me — so why would they want to buy her stuff and ogle her on the concert stage? And, unlike Miley and the other Disney girls, she doesn’t have a ready-made media fantasy film or tv show story that they can plug themselves into in imagination — another way the Disneyettes are aspirational but Jordin’s not. Plus, to me, she kind of looks too grownup to be an aspirational pop princess for the 13-year-olds, but she acts too young to be one for a whole lot of the 15- and 16-year-olds. I don’t see where she fits unless it’s about *singing.* And pop success really isn’t about singing.

  47. In any case, ringtone sales are declining. …

    Sale of ringtone is one the crucial contributors to all revenues from mobile music. Other major contributors include full-track downloads and ringback tones. Ringtone sales is on the decline and so its contribution to the entire mobile music revenues.

    Ringtone sales as percent of overall mobile music sales in 2007 : 80%
    Ringtone sales as percent of overall mobile music sales in 2008 : 63%

    according to this

    http://techcrunchies.com/ringtone-sales-contribution-to-mobile-music-market-revenues/

  48. Regarding the discussion of the iTunes Pass — my understanding is that it is treated as a preorder bundle for both Nielsen SoundScan which is the sales source for Billboard (also for RIAA certification). I may be misreading the SoundScan retail reporting proceedure, but I think this is how it works:

    1. The iTunes Pass is considered a bundled preorder and is therefore NOT transmitted as a sale. iTunes reserved the right (and does) change the content of these bundles — just like they did with LLWD.

    2. When each part of the Pass is delivered it is consider a sale on SoundScan IF it is sold for at least 50% of the MSRP. Anything discounted more than 50% is not a valid SoundScan sale. So if iTunes assigned a value of at least $0.645 to LLWD delivered via the Kris Allen pass it should be a sale.

    3. Similarly, the album units will be recorded as a sale when delivered (and in the digital world, the is the day that the file is available to be downloaded by the buyer.)

    There are some unusual rules in SoundScan — particularly for digital reporting and the mass merchants. Target reports Sunday to Sat. for example. So there could be some special iTunes Pass rule I don’t know about.

  49. because this thread has been lacking in this department recently:

    HitsDailyDouble estimates David will sell 18K-21K first week for ‘Christmas From The Heart’

    ETA: btw if it sells this amount, this is very good for first week xmas album sales. The albums last year were on average about 10k. Faith Hill opened with 11k last year.

  50. If a person on Itunes buys say 3 singles off of someones album and then eventually gets the rest of the album. (Itunes prorates the album-minus the single you bought) then does that become counted as a record sale that week?

    Yes. If you “complete my album” the singles will be “returned” (total and weekly sales decremented by 1. It is possible to go negative on weekly sales) and one album sale will be counted.

    or if someone buys each track separately over a 10 week period does the final purchase then become counted as a full album sale. Just curious.

    I believe that if you do not “complete my album” on the last purchase, it won’t count as an album sale. It will be just 10 singles.

  51. Here is a really interesting analysis of the current digital music marketplace from Billboard.

    Analysis: The Digital Revenue Slowdown

    Overall, the one bright light in the music business is starting to dim a bit. A few key points:

    Digital market is starting to mature = slower growth.

    Year-over-year growth in digital tracks sales is currently low double digits and could finish the year in the single digits. Lastly, more popular tracks (top 200) are up 21% on the year while total tracks are up only 12%. That means less popular tracks are not performing very well.

    Variable pricing does not appear to have helped increase digital album sales, an outcome hoped for by labels that raised prices.

    Because physical revenues (CD sales) are dropping so fast, one must look at actual digital revenue – not digital’s percent of total revenue – to gauge the health of digital. (Even if a company’s digital revenue remained flat, deep drops in physical revenue would lead to larger and larger digital shares.) When viewed in this way, digital’s performance over the last four or five quarters does not look very impressive.

    The Christmas season. Sales spikes come at the end of the year, when gift cards and new devices take consumers to download stores in great numbers. This year, there is no clear driver of increased sales. iPods are a mature product and probably won’t drive much growth in download sales. A good portion of iPhone users download MP3s, but track sales do not appear to be affected by growth in iPhone ownership. That leaves gift cards, which enable teens without credit cards to purchase MP3s and give new customers exposure to purchasing downloads.

  52. sadly Jordin’s album fell off the top 200 but some good news No Air has reached 3 Million downloads . last week Tattoo reached 2 Million downloads and Battlefield 1 Million downloads.

  53. Kris Allen, Live Like We’re Dying (13,000, -43 percent, 53,000)

    Unfortunatly that was expected, the initial burst only gave him one week over 20 tousand sales, now he will rely on radio and tv promo to get it out there.
    I don’t want to be too pessimistic considering we are still in the early stages of radio airplay but it doesn’t look good at the moment.

  54. I’m still confident this song will do well. It has started to get good radio play. My local station spins it every day. As interest increases the song will get more play. Last year was the first year I followed Idol closely. Outside the Idol bubble, I purchased Daughtry’s CD after I heard his single on radio. I’ll start to worry if Kris’s CD sales aren’t stellar. I’m still cautiously optimistic about future sales. Just have to wait and see and support him with our pocketbooks. I take no “glee” from any of the Idol’s setbacks. I wish them all well.

  55. Unfortunatly that was expected, the initial burst only gave him one week over 20 tousand sales, now he will rely on radio and tv promo to get it out there.
    I don’t want to be too pessimistic considering we are still in the early stages of radio airplay but it doesn’t look good at the moment.

    I was actually hoping his fans would pull together a little more after the fangirling from Jim C. and the big push by Rickey and a few others. I am a little disappointed myself.

  56. alaadam: I was actually hoping his fans would pull together a little more after the fangirling from Jim C. and the big push by Rickey and a few others. I am a little disappointed myself.

    ITA since the single seems like it would suit the younger/educated iTunes market pretty well, I thought initial sales would be stronger and then I thought that the press it got last week would jumpstart sales a bit, but it doesn’t look like it did much. It will be interesting to see what will happen with radio support.

    But it is the Album sales that really matter, not the single.

  57. This is the first week that LLWD will be on stations all over the country and in a few more big markets. Prior to this week, only a handful of stations were playing it. So let’s see if all the radio station adds help him with the sales for the next few weeks. It’s possible that this song might end up getting a lot of spins without getting a ton of sales. That isn’t unprecedented — there are artists without any big Billboard hits that get a fair amount of radio airplay.

    So we’ll see.

  58. Just to comment on Jordin and international airplay quite a few posts back. She is one of the 3 Idols that get airplay in my country ( Kelly and Daughtry being the other two ) but I think the sales are much worse than in the USA (just a feeling based on knowing the not buying singles tendency in my country).

  59. Just to comment on Jordin and international airplay quite a few posts back. She is one of the 3 Idols that get airplay in my country ( Kelly and Daughtry being the other two ) but I think the sales are much worse than in the USA (just a feeling based on knowing the not buying singles tendency in my country).

    Same here in Slovenia. Kelly, Daughtry and Jordin are the only Idols who climb our radio charts.

  60. I don’t think fans should get together to buy the single just to jump up the sales. It will give the wrong impression about how the song is really doing and I don’t think it will be good for Kris.
    It should be left to grow on the outside public which in my opinion, is the real world where his career matters.
    AI fans, it’s good if you get the huge sales first week, but the rest of the journey is what matters and I believe the latter is what Jive is aiming at.
    I think they are going for new artists approach for Kris and Allison instead of AI finishers. Which I think is good for them IMO.

  61. ” the big push by Rickey” — alaadam

    As far as I’m concerned, Rickey did him no favors. Just fired up the Kris haters on his blog. Kris will steadily make a name for himself outside the Idol bubble. I’m not denying the perks he has won through Idol, but as he has stated, he’s just starting out in the music business. From my perspective, I want him to work for it, to earn it, whether he won a reality show or not. The acclaim and accolades will follow in due time.

  62. No matter how much I try to wrap my mind around it I can imagine Jive can be happy with Jordin’s numbers even with the single doing well. I’m sure with the declining state of CD sales plus Idols normally having a drop-off with their sophomore album they expected slow sales, but struggling to sell 150,000 within 3 months and falling off the BB200 is beyond bad. There IMO should be no excuse for numbers like that considering her airplay and all the high profile tours she’s done, not to mention she was part of that VH1 Diva’s concert. What more can Jive do to help her?

  63. zoya: Just to comment on Jordin and international airplay quite a few posts back. She is one of the 3 Idols that get airplay in my country ( Kelly and Daughtry being the other two ) but I think the sales are much worse than in the USA (just a feeling based on knowing the not buying singles tendency in my country).

    Carrie gets airplay and has charted in Australia.

  64. I am hoping that Kris does really well, he deserves it! (I am an Adam fan btw, but lovin’ Kris). WIth all the votes he received on AI, shouldn’t the single be selling better already with the AI fans? Hopefully once people outside the AI bubble hear the song on the radio, it will sell very well.
    Any news on Allison’s single? I haven’t seen/heard a thing in quite a while. Heard the single briefly. Like it but not as much as Kris’. I feel Allison has extraordinary talent (especially given her age) and that single is not representative of her talent. JMHO. I am hoping future singles off her cd showcase that unique, fabulous voice of hers more!

  65. The story of LLWD is not going to be told in a couple of weeks. The fact that his fanbase didn’t rack up huge sales in its first couple of weeks isn’t that big of a deal in the long run. The Idol fanbase (no matter how large, small, “laid-back” or “rabid”) can only push sales for a single or album so far. Airplay and promo appearances are what will ultimately sell this single.

    Take Light On (a.k.a. the “boat anchor”), for instance. That song didn’t sell platinum overnight, and it didn’t immediately zoom up the charts either. I still remember how it languished for a while near the bottom of the itunes Top 100 songs chart. There weren’t many people predicting a “platinum” future for that song at that time. Slowly but surely (with increased exposure and airplay), more ears were able to hear the song. As a result, the song began creeping back up the itunes charts and sales picked up. The rest is history.

    I don’t know whether LLWD will eventually sell platinum or not, but I think it’s way too soon to declare this single a mistake on Jive’s part. We’ll see what happens in the next couple of months.

    RE: Jordin-I’m sure Jive was hoping for much better album sales at this point for Battlefield. It all depends on what they want from Jordin and what they are content with. If racking up platinum singles isn’t enough for Jive, they’ll let her go (I seriously doubt that will happen). At this stage, all Jordin can do is keep pushing forward with touring and promo. I don’t think there’s anything more Jive can do apart from what they’re already doing. Maybe she’ll have another monster single like No Air that will help increase her album sales. Who knows?

  66. As far as I’m concerned, Rickey did him no favors. Just fired up the Kris haters on his blog.

    Rickey? Rickey’s not promo. He’s a f*cking whackadoodle. He has a small audience of die-hard idol fans who have either purchased Kris’s single already, or are such hard core fantards of an AI competitor, they’d never even consider buying it.

    A couple of radio spins in major markets reach about 10,000 times the people that might hit Rickey’s lame little blog. That’s where Kris’s new fans will come from. And that’s what he needs. He’s already sold this single to the fans in the bubble. It’s the radio spins that will reach those outside.

  67. BILLBOARD HOT 100

    23 19 KELLY CLARKSON ALREADY GONE
    14 20 CARRIE UNDERWOOD COWBOY CASANOVA
    30 GLEE CAST IT’S MY LIFE / CONFESSIONS PAR
    40 GLEE CAST HALO / WALKING ON SUNSHINE
    35 44 JORDIN SPARKS BATTLEFIELD
    41 46 DAUGHTRY NO SURPRISE

    Kellys 11th top 20 hit on the Hot 100.

  68. Thank you for the info! You’re right Shell! Hoping for big sales for Kris (and Adam & Allison!)

  69. Idol Chatter posted some extra numbers for those albums and singles outside of the charts –

    Albums
    Jordin Sparks, Battlefield (3,000 weekly, 123,000 total)
    David Cook, David Cook (2,000/1.24 million)
    Mandisa, Freedom (2,000/68,000)
    Phil Stacey, Into the Light (less than 1,000/8,000)
    David Archuleta, David Archuleta (less than 1,000/734,000)
    Chris Sligh, Running Back to You (less than 1,000/54,000

    Digital tracks
    David Archuleta, Crush (1.83 million)
    Kelly Clarkson, Since U Been Gone (2 million)
    David Cook, Light On (1+ million)
    David Cook, Time of My Life (1.3 million)
    Daughtry, Feels LIke Tonight (740,000)
    Daughtry, Home (1.82 million)
    Daughtry, What About Now (633,000)
    Jordin Sparks, No Air (3 million)
    Jordin Sparks, Tattoo (2 million)
    Carrie Underwood, Before He Cheats (2.82 million)
    Daughtry, What About Now (633,000)

  70. Seems right to me. But I also think that they don’t know ‘” at this point ‘” just how to go about correcting the problem, right?

    I hope they are planning something, lucy. Because as much as I bitch about Jordin’s albums sales, its because I like her. She can sing and I think that the fact that she’s fine with her size makes her a good role model for young girls. She worked so hard on that first album. I just want the kid to do very well.

    I don’t have any answers for any of your questions. I don’t know how they can get people to take another look at her. I don’t know how they are going to make more money off her. Fingers crossed.

    And congrats to Archie!

  71. Just reading this thread, and wow! I learn SO much on MJ’s! Thank you all for the articles/analysis, etc. Really interesting stuff.

    And I kind of have my doubts about Jordin as a big solo draw or a big merchandise seller. That’s been my question about Jordin all along at pop ‘” I don’t see anything aspirational about her image for the pop audience.

    Lucy, ITA with your points on Jordin. I don’t think Jive has successfully created a strong brand with her, for all the reasons you stated above. She’s not the disney princess, she def has a more mature sound (and even look), but at the same time, she’s still a kid. She doesn’t really attract any one demographic strongly enough. To the person who said that people like her singles, but maybe not HER enough, I think that might be correct. Her singles are catchy, hooky, and you want to buy them. But there’s not enough of a pull (imo) to really get invested in Jordin the artist. And pop, especially is SO brand driven.

    Here is a really interesting analysis of the current digital music marketplace from Billboard.

    Q3 – thanks for posting this – I really enjoyed the read. My take on it is: everything evolves, it’s the nature of business cycles. The ipod, albums, digital sales, are all reaching maturity. EVERYTHING in business goes through this cycle.

    Music ain’t going anywhere, so, as with everything in this world, it simply must adapt to survive. The strong and smart will predict the changes, and move ahead with them to stay ahead of the curve. The weak and slow will fall by the wayside and fail. And if I knew what the winning move was, well, I’d probably be much wealthier right now ;-)

    Similar struggle is happening right now with newspapers ‘“ many of which are struggling to stay afloat now that most people get so much of their news for free on the internet. In fact, the internet alone is probably the most responsible for all of these huge shifts in business practice. It will be interesting to see how it will all play out.

  72. I have wondered lately if peope outside of the AI bubble would recognize that the AI8 Winner Kris Allen is not the same artist as Kris Allen and Southern Thunder the country/southern rock artist of the same name. It may be nothing but it worried me when Kris’s single did not have a picture attached.

  73. 135 Blake Lewis ‘Heartbreak on Vinyl’  4K (NEW) 4K ‘“ 89 on digital Albums Chart (1K) (NEW)

    Ouch! Those numbers are low … guess Blake’s genre really doesn’t sell well. or is it just Blake?

    Which makes me hope that Adam’s album is more rock-ish than dance-ish.

  74. To do the math for album equivalents off of $1.29 singles, I just divide the number of singles by 8. That’s a rough equivalent—it’s probably a bit better than that, particularly if the label/artist gets a greater share of that extra 40 cents. But it’s probably pretty close. Given that Battlefield (the song) did well but not spectactularly and looks like it will only dump out, say, 150K album equivalents, that SOS isn’t really doing anything, and the real risk that Battlefield (the CD) won’t even hit 250K, I do have to think that Jordin is at risk. Not saying that she’s guaranteed to lose her record deal, but I do think that she needs SOS to perk up or a new single to come out and start selling itself and the CD.

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