HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Sep 8-14

With 69.42% of reports in, Rapper Lecrae is set to have the number one album of the week. This would be his first album to top the BB200 chart. He’s predicted to sell in the 75-80K range. Last week, HDD and BB were predicting that R&B artist Jhene Aiko would finish second, but right now Maroon 5 has the slot with “V”. Maroon 5 features Voice Judge Adam Levine and had the number one album last week. The album sold 164K last week according to BB, so (mixing reporters which we really shouldn’t do) with 58K in sales already reported, they are going to have a nice hold-over (64% drop in sales right now, but there are likely more sales to be reported so the drop will be less than that in an era when second week drops are in the 70% range).

Lee Brice (Country) and Ryan Adams (Rock, Alt-Country) are debuting in 5th and 6th. [Young] Jeezy (Rap) is 6th, Dustin Lynch (Country) 7th, Ariana Grande (Pop) is 8th, Banks (Alt-Pop) is 9th and Interpol (Indie Rock) is 10th.

Watch Cooper, Osnes & Munoz Sin...
Watch Cooper, Osnes & Munoz Sing Irving Berlin!

Now 51 features a track featuring X-Factorer Cher Lloyd. The compilation album is at 12th. Meghan Trainor has flown up the single charts (with jaw-dropping increases on Pop and topped the Hot 100 last week) and just dropped an EP at 13th (I just like mentioning her). Nashville Star’s Miranda Lambert is 31st and she has a song on her album that is a duet with Idol’s Carrie Underwood. X-Factor’s One Direction has a track on Now 50 at 32nd.

Judges appear at 31st (Brad Paisley) and 41st (Blake Shelton).

CHART DATE: 09/15/2014
LAST UPDATE: 09/15/2014 15:33:07
NOW IN: 69.42%

LW TW artist / album label sales index
— 1 LECRAE ANOMALY 69,170
1 2 MAROON 5 V 58,495
— 3 JHENE AIKO SOULED OUT 49,408
— 4 LEE BRICE I DON’T DANCE 27,559
— 5 RYAN ADAMS RYAN ADAMS 26,297
2 6 JEEZY SEEN IT ALL 21,640
— 7 DUSTIN LYNCH WHERE IT’S AT 21,460
4 8 ARIANA GRANDE MY EVERYTHING 19,765
— 9 BANKS GODDESS 19,331
— 10 INTERPOL EL PINTOR16,554
..,
9 12 NOW 51 VARIOUS ARTISTS 13,661
— 13 MEGHAN TRAINOR TITLE 12,998

14 31 BRAD PAISLEY MOONSHINE IN THE TRUNK 4,998
21 32 NOW 50 VARIOUS ARTISTS 4,582
13 33 MIRANDA LAMBERT PLATINUM 4,180

40 41 BLAKE SHELTON BASED ON A TRUE STORY 3,412

26 50 THE BLACK KEYS TURN BLUE 2,255

Hits Daily Double

About Kirsten 3046 Articles
Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.

16 Comments

  1. Mediabase – Tuesday update:

    AAA:
    37 33 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Unpack Your Heart 134 114 20 0.228
    +9 Spins
    +13 Bullet
    +0.01 AI
    AC:
    6 6 ONE DIRECTION Story Of My Life 1660 1689 -29 13.234
    +2 Spins
    +14 Bullet
    -0.034 AI
    Country:
    12 10 M. LAMBERT & C. UNDERWOOD Somethin’ Bad 4768 4573 195 34.651
    +50 Spins
    +3 Bullet
    +0.012 AI
    14 14 SWON BROTHERS Later On 4068 4038 30 29.317
    +10 Spins
    +7 Bullet
    +0.458 AI
    26 22 SCOTTY MCCREERY Feelin’ It 2479 2486 -7 14.869
    +12 Spins
    +27 Bullet
    +0.169 AI
    29 26 DAVID NAIL Kiss You Tonight 2137 1925 212 12.794
    +44 Spins
    +55 Bullet
    +0.096 AI
    37 37 RAELYNN God Made Girls 1069 1096 -27 5.879
    -34 Spins
    -30 Bullet
    -0.041 AI
    HAC:
    25 23 DAUGHTRY Battleships 1046 1021 25 3.666
    -2 Spins
    -8 Bullet
    -0.029 AI
    33 29 G.R.L. Ugly Heart 727 669 58 3.198
    -4 Spins
    -23 Bullet
    +0.023 AI
    36 30 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Unpack Your Heart 647 535 112 1.557
    +11 Spins
    -3 Bullet
    +0.007 AI
    45 39 ELLA HENDERSON Ghost 351 268 83 1.195
    +11 Spins
    -5 Bullet
    +0.107 AI
    44 43 ALEX & SIERRA Scarecrow 229 276 -47 0.538
    -2 Spins
    +10 Bullet
    +0.003 AI
    POP:
    50 44 ELLA HENDERSON Ghost 604 450 154 2.106
    +11 Spins
    -18 Bullet
    +0.067 AI
    44 45 G.R.L. Ugly Heart 591 697 -106 2.072
    -19 Spins
    -13 Bullet
    -0.06 AI
    Urban AC:
    13 14 JENNIFER HUDSON It’s Your World f/R. Kelly 633 657 -24 4.526
    -24 Spins
    -90 Bullet
    -0.255 AI
    45 47 TESSANNE CHIN Heaven Knows 64 56 8 0.108
    +3 Spins
    +3 Bullet
    +0.016 AI
    Canada-Country:
    8 6 M. LAMBERT & C. UNDERWOOD Somethin’ Bad 829 771 58 4.397
    +12 Spins
    +6 Bullet
    +0.093 AI
    48 49 SWON BROTHERS Later On 129 140 -11 0.523
    -1 Spins
    +4 Bullet
    +0.005 AI
    Canada-Hot AC:
    5 5 HEDLEY Heaven In Our Headlights 1074 1015 59 6.567
    -3 Spins
    -9 Bullet
    -0.012 AI
    Canada-Main AC:
    10 11 HEDLEY Heaven In Our Headlights 273 274 -1 1.942
    +3 Spins
    +10 Bullet
    +0.076 AI
    Canada-Top 40:
    11 9 HEDLEY Heaven In Our Headlights 1259 1252 7 6.695
    +3 Spins
    -1 Bullet
    +0.047 AI
    Christian AC:
    2 2 DANNY GOKEY Hope In Front Of Me 1385 1398 -13 6.34
    +6 Spins
    +12 Bullet
    +0.074 AI
    17 14 COLTON DIXON More Of You 594 567 27 3.123
    +1 Spins
    -3 Bullet
    +0.038 AI
    51 50 VARIOUS ARTISTS Hope Can Change Everything 66 68 -2 0.122
    0 Spins
    0 Bullet
    0 AI

  2. 9/16/2014 – Itunes Top 1500 Singles and Albums (from LivePopBars)

    Singles:
    4. Alex & Sierra – Here We Go
    81. Miranda Lambert – Somethin’ Bad (with Carrie Underwood) [Duet Version]
    123. Fifth Harmony – BO$$
    184. RaeLynn – God Made Girls
    200. Scotty McCreery – Feelin’ It
    226. G.R.L. – Ugly Heart
    232. One Direction – Story of My Life
    243. Melanie Martinez – Carousel
    254. Ella Henderson – Ghost
    256. The Swon Brothers – Later On
    309. David Nail – Kiss You Tonight
    316. Pentatonix – La La Latch
    323. Danny Gokey – Hope in Front of Me
    324. Alex & Sierra – Little Do You Know
    329. Melanie Martinez – Dollhouse
    338. Phillip Phillips – Unpack Your Heart
    365. Phillip Phillips – Gone, Gone, Gone
    406. One Direction – You & I
    410. Alex & Sierra – Scarecrow
    420. Olly Murs – Dance With Me Tonight
    453. One Direction – What Makes You Beautiful
    464. Phillip Phillips – Home
    533. Alex & Sierra – Bumper Cars
    575. Alex & Sierra – Just Kids
    596. Colton Dixon – More of You
    612. Pentatonix – Problem
    616. Phillip Phillips – Raging Fire
    622. Daughtry – Battleships
    635. Carrie Underwood – Before He Cheats
    694. Daughtry – Waiting for Superman
    719. Carrie Underwood – Blown Away
    745. Carrie Underwood – How Great Thou Art
    746. David Nail – Whatever She’s Got
    823. Kelly Clarkson – Stronger (What Doesn’t Kill You)
    877. Daughtry – Utopia
    971. Scotty McCreery – See You Tonight
    997. Jordin Sparks & Chris Brown – No Air
    1072. Mandisa – Overcomer
    1154. Fifth Harmony – Miss Movin’ On
    1187. Carrie Underwood – Cowboy Casanova
    1227. Kelly Clarkson – Since U Been Gone
    1309. Carly Rae Jepsen – Call Me Maybe
    1407. Little Mix – Salute
    1418. Carrie Underwood – See You Again
    1437. Fifth Harmony – Me & My Girls
    1441. Mandisa – Good Morning (feat. TobyMac)
    1479. Carrie Underwood – Two Black Cadillacs
    1497. Fifth Harmony – Them Girls Be Like

    Albums:
    16. One Direction – FOUR (Deluxe Version)
    69. Alex & Sierra – It’s About Us
    87. Pentatonix – PTX, Vol. III
    125. One Direction – Midnight Memories (Deluxe Edition)
    177. Phillip Phillips – Behind the Light (Deluxe Version)
    195. Melanie Martinez – Dollhouse – EP
    242. Fifth Harmony – Reflection (Deluxe)
    256. Mandisa – Get Up: The Remixes
    418. One Direction – Up All Night (Deluxe Version)
    440. Pentatonix – PTX, Vol. II
    448. One Direction – FOUR
    491. Phillip Phillips – The World From the Side of the Moon (Deluxe Version)
    515. Colton Dixon – Anchor
    525. Avicii – True
    579. One Direction – Take Me Home (Yearbook Edition)
    615. Pentatonix – PTX, Vol. 1
    627. Jennifer Hudson – JHUD
    797. Danny Gokey – Hope in Front of Me
    872. Fifth Harmony – Better Together – EP
    883. Home Free – Crazy Life
    894. Phillip Phillips – Behind the Light
    990. Daughtry – Baptized (Deluxe Version)
    1067. Scotty McCreery – See You Tonight
    1098. Carrie Underwood – Blown Away
    1205. One Direction – Midnight Memories
    1231. David Nail – I’m a Fire
    1264. One Direction – Take Me Home
    1275. Pentatonix – PTXmas (Deluxe Edition)
    1311. Olly Murs – Right Place Right Time (Deluxe Edition)

  3. Reporting in from Billboard Country Update and Country Aircheck:

    There were 3 recurrents at Billboard: Dierks Bentley’s Drunk On A Plane and Tim/Faith’s Meanwhile Back At Mama’s out of the t10 and Zac Brown Band’s All Alright out of the t25. This coming week, there’s a chance Lady Antebellum’s Bartender will go recurrent out of the t10. Eric Church’s Cold One will drop out of the t20 but not go recurrent yet. At Aircheck/Mediabase, Dierks and Tim/Faith both went recurrent out of the t10. This coming week, Zac Brown Band’s All Alright will go recurrent out of the t25 and that should be it.

    Miranda/Carrie’s Somethin Bad had a decent week at Billboard gaining 979k AIs and moving up 2 spots to #9 in its 17th week charting. SB increased its lead over the Brantley brodown by 101k to 735k, but Sam Hunt’s Leave The Night On closed to 1.961 million behind after outgaining SB by 1.593 million. LTNO may not pass SB this week but it’s possible it’ll pass 2 weeks from now. Lady A’s Bartender may drop below this week. Look for SB to finish the week anywhere between #8 and #10.

    At Aircheck/Mediabase SB had an OK week gaining 369 points and moving up 2 spots to #10. The Brantley brodown outgained SB and now leads by 503 points. Sam Hunt’s Leave The Night On closed to 999 points behind by outgaining SB by 527 points. LTNO probably won’t pass this week but I wouldn’t be surprised if it were to pass in the next few weeks. Look for SB to finish the week at either #9 or #10, depending on whether Lady Antebellum’s Bartender drops below (based on last week, it won’t, but Bartender’s drop may accelerate this week).

    The Swon Brothers’s Later On had a decent week at Billboard gaining 584k and moving up a spot to #16 in its 30th week charting. LO closed to 36k behind Eli Young Band’s Dust by outgaining it by 89k. Keith Urban is 2.471 million AIs behind after outgaining LO by 822k so LO may be safe from being passed this week. Look for LO to finish the week at either #15 or #16 (possibly #14 if Lady A’s Bartender goes recurrent).

    At Aircheck/Mediabase LO had an OK week gaining 297 points and holding at #13 as Sam Hunt and Frankie Ballard passed. Blake Shelton’s Neon Light closed to 248 points by outgaining LO by 921 points, so look for NL to pass this week. Eli Young Band’s Dust closed to 284 points behind by outgaining LO by 100 points. Little Big Town’s Day Drinking closed to 354 points behind by outgaining LO by 528 points so they could pass this week. Look for LO to finish the week down 2-3 spots (probably 2) to #15 or #16 (probably #15).

    Scotty’s Feelin It had a good week at Billboard gaining 1.021 million AIs and moving up 4 spots to #22 in its 23rd week. Garth started the week 300k behind and I think he will pass this week. Eric Church will drop below. Meanwhile FI closed to 1.703 million AIs behind Parmalee’s Close Your Eyes by outgaining them by 795k. FI may not pass this week but on the bright side, nobody else is likely to pass FI this week. So look for FI to finish the week at #22, #21 if Lady A’s single goes recurrent.

    At Aircheck/Mediabase FI had a decent week gaining 299 points and moving up 4 spots to #22 thanks to recurrents, Garth dropping below for now, and Zac Brown Band’s single dropping below after peaking. FI is 1038 points behind the #21 song, but Eric Church’s Cold One (which starts the week at #19) is going to drop below this week now that it has peaked. FI expanded its lead on Rascal Flatts’ Payback by 174 points to 381 points. Chase Bryant closed to 453 points behind after outgaining FI by 693 points so he could pass this week. Garth’s People Loving People trails by 1212 points and I’m going to guess it won’t pass this week. So look for FI to finish the week at either #21 or #22.

    David Nail’s Kiss You Tonight (cowritten by David Cook) had a decent week at Billboard gaining 433k AIs and moving up to #26 in its 27th week. Brad Paisley’s Perfect Storm is 2.473 million AIs behind after outgaining KYT by 2.231 million but he is the only passing threat this week. I think KYT will likely hold at #26 this week, maybe move up to #25 if Lady A’s Bartender goes recurrent.

    At Aircheck/Mediabase KYT had a decent week gaining 328 points and moving up 2 spots to #27. KYT is not likely to pass anybody this week but will benefit from a Zac Brown Band recurrency and has a chance of seeing Eric Church’s Cold One drop below. There’s a chance Brad Paisley’s Perfect Storm (2306 points behind after outgaining KYT by 1400 points) could accelerate and pass this week, but I think it’ll take another week or 2 before it passes. So look for KYT to finish the week up to #26 or #25 (probably #26, but it depends on how hard Eric Church’s Cold One falls).

    RaeLynn’s God Made Girls had a good week gaining 584k AIs and moving up 2 spots to #36 Billboard in its 11th week. Chris Young’s Lonely Eyes closed to 247k AIs behind after outgaining GMG by 359k so that will likely pass this week. Tim McGraw’s Shotgun Rider is 1.564 million AIs behind after outgaining GMG by 1.709 million AIs so that could pass this week. On the other hand GMG surprisingly closed to 315k behind Jake Owen’s latest single after outgaining it by 472k AIs so GMG could repass that. I’d be surprised if that happened though. Look for GMG to finish the week down a couple spots to #38.

    At Aircheck/Mediabase GMG had an OK week gaining 146 points and holding at #37 as Brad Paisley and Jake Owen passed to offset the recurrencies in front. Jana Kramer’s Love closed to 168 points behind after outgaining GMG by 132 points so that could be a close race this week. Darius Rucker’s Homegrown Honey closed to 546 points behind after outgaining GMG by 650 points so he could pass this week. Tim McGraw’s new single Shotgun Rider trails by 1096 points after outgaining GMG by 1208 points so that could pass this week. I don’t think anybody else will pass this week, so look for GMG to finish the week anywhere between #36 and #39.

    Trisha Yearwood’s PrizeFighter featuring Kelly Clarkson is showing up under Billboard’s New & Active with 337k AIs from 3 stations. PF was just 64k AIs from charting this week. There may be a spot or 2 opening up on the chart this week – if so, Jackie Lee’s probably the frontrunner for the 1st spot and then it’ll be between Native Run and Trisha/Kelly for the 2nd one. Although Eric Church’s newly announced new single Talladega could also pick up enough early airplay to chart too.

    Idol-related ads: RCA Nashville has a 1/3 page ad thanking country radio for PrizeFighter’s “great start” (which includes 25 MB adds, good for #4 most added) and lists the stations added.

    Recommended reading: Country Aircheck has 6 radio programmers for its 2nd annual fantasy country draft where each person has 6 rounds to fill a team with a solo female act, a solo male, a duo/group, a rookie (defined by somebody who’s never had a #1), a label president, and a VP of Promotion. They didn’t do anything with last year’s and aren’t sure they’ll do anything with this year’s either. But anyway, Carrie is the 1st pick in 2nd round (3rd female after Miranda & Kacey, likely because she hasn’t had solo material on the radio in over a year and nobody seems to know when she’ll be back with new material), and the Swon Brothers are the 1st pick in the 3rd round (surprisingly, before The Band Perry and Little Big Town, though the person who picked them later admitted she’d blanked on those 2). Still nice that they got picked. On the label side, Mike Dungan and Royce Risser of UMG Nashville both got picked, but Gary Overton did not. Keith Gale, VP/Promotion at RCA Nashville did get picked. Anyway this is just a game with 6 people and it doesn’t mean anything but it’s kind of fun to read.

    Billboard Country Update leads with a feature on how pure country acts are increasingly winding up promoting their music at Americana venues. The article acknowledges country’s history of incorporating influences from other genres, but talks about the current radio era as being something different. Ketch Secor of Old Crow Medicine Show says:

    When you listen to Garth and Alan Jackson, I hear country music. But when I listen to the radio today, I don’t. Sometime in the past 20 years, there’s been a great shift.

    Angaleena Presley, formerly of the Pistol Annies and now a solo act (and labelmates with Brandy Clark at Slate Creek Records), is more specific about the differences between pure country music versus a lot of commercial country today:

    We’re all singing about the same thing. It’s just that some people are singing about the party, and some people are singing about the consequences of the party. Let’s face it: in real life, more people want to go to the party than want to think about waking up the next day in a pool of vomit regrettng what they’ve done the night before.

    There’s also the production side, which she also discusses:

    On the Americana side, it’s more stripped down, it’s raw. There’s more room to breathe, more space. And then on the country side it’s how many instruments can we invite. Who has the biggest guest list. To me, I feel like we need both worlds. It’s the yin and yang.

    The article talks about how the Americana world doesn’t have the media infrastructure mainstream country does, or the as widely recognized a brand identity that country does, but it does provide an outlet and audience for pure country acts.

  4. CHART DATE: 09/15/2014
    LAST UPDATE: 09/16/2014 13:18:22
    NOW IN: FINAL

    LW TW artist / album label sales index % change

    — 1 LECRAE REACH 88,299 — ANOMALY
    1 2 MAROON 5 222/INTERSCOPE 78,650 -51% V
    — 3 JHENE AIKO DEF JAM 71,230 — SOULED OUT
    — 4 RYAN ADAMS BLUE NOTE 40,478 — RYAN ADAMS
    — 5 LEE BRICE CURB 39,280 — I DON’T DANCE
    — 6 DUSTIN LYNCH BROKEN BOW 32,151 — WHERE IT’S AT
    — 7 INTERPOL MATADOR 31,971 — EL PINTOR
    2 8 JEEZY DEF JAM 31,191 -73% SEEN IT ALL
    — 9 ROBERT PLANT NONESUCH 26,830 — LULLABY & THE CEASELESS ROAR
    3 10 GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY HOLLYWOOD 26,216 -52% SOUNDTRACK
    9 19 NOW 51 NOW 15,389 -45% VARIOUS ARTISTS
    14 29 BRAD PAISLEY ARISTA NASHVILLE 8,411 -49% MOONSHINE IN THE TRUNK
    19 33 CHASE RICE DACK JANIELS 7,498 -19% IGNITE THE NIGHT
    13 36 MIRANDA LAMBERT RCA NASHVILLE 7,057 -58% PLATINUM
    21 39 NOW 50 NOW 6,412 -28% VARIOUS ARTISTS
    35 46 NASHVILLE OUTLAWS: TRIBUT TO MOT BIG MACHINE 5,591 -21% VARIOUS ARTISTS

  5. Thanks for the report. You seem to have missed Arianna Grande, though. The earlier report predicted that she would have sold enough to have her in the top 50.

  6. I believe the blog protocol is to list 1-10 no matter who holds those spots, then only list 11-50 if the artist is blog-related.

  7. Amy Beth is correct. Spots 1-10 is always posted. The rest is posted if they are blog-related.

  8. Thanks, much to both of you for your response. I saw that Kirsten mentioned her in her roundup but she was not mentioned, here, in the final report. Just my curiosity getting the better of me.

  9. I could add Ariana’s album to the HDD updates since S6 Idol winner, Jordin Sparks has a co-write on the album. Generally, I don’t add her album in the HDD updates. I could, but then I would need to know which talent show alums have co-writes on albums (which takes more research).

  10. Monitored Adds:

    Top 40
    Ella Henderson (Ghost) – 8
    G.R.L. (Ugly Heart) – 1
    Urban
    Fifth Harmony (Bo$$) – 1
    Urban AC
    Jennifer Hudson f. R. Kelly (It’s Your World) – 8
    Canada Country
    Chase Rice (Ready Set Roll) – 1
    Scotty McCreery (Feelin’ It) – 1
    Canada HAC
    G.R.L. (Ugly Heart) – 3
    Demi Lovato f. Cher Lloyd (Really Don’t Care) – 1
    Canada Main AC
    Ella Henderson (Ghost) – 1
    Canada Top 40
    Ella Henderson (Ghost) – 2
    G.R.L. (Ugly Heart) – 1

  11. The Jordin co-write was from Ariana’s first album that was released last year .this is Ariana’s 2nd album which was released two weeks ago.

  12. Speaking of Americana, there is a huge Americana festival in Nashville starting tomorrow and running through the 21st (I think). There are dozens and dozens of acts playing all over town. The Avett Brothers seem to be one of the bigger acts — they are playing at Riverfront Park on the 20th. Loretta Lynn and Sturgill Simpson are also taking part. I don’t think there are any reality-show related acts performing, but I haven’t looked at the whole list of names.

  13. WOW Marron 5’s second week is awesome, i think the best i’ve seen these days. Great !

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