HDD – Album Sales Prediction – Sep 20-26

Fantasia is the sole Idol to still appear on the HDD predictions (top 50 in album sales). Now 35 featuring a song by Carrie Underwood continues to sell well in the top 10 while Santana’s new disk featuring a song with Chris Daughtry debuts at 7. Eminem has dropped out of the top 5 after several weeks while the Zac Brown Band looks headed towards topping the charts. Not far behind are Kris Allen’s tour mates Maroon 5 in 2nd.

CHART DATE: 09/27/2010
LAST UPDATE: 09/27/2010 17:04:14
NOW IN: 54.98%

LW TW artist / album label power index
— 1 ZAC BROWN BAND 75, 216 YOU GET WHAT YOU GIVE
— 2 MAROON 5 61, 512 HANDS ALL OVER
— 3 SELENA GOMEZ & THE SCENE 43, 143 A YEAR WITHOUT RAIN
2 4 TREY SONGZ 40, 448 PASSION PAIN & PLEASURE
1 5 LINKIN PARK 36, 783 A THOUSAND SUNS

— 7 SANTANA 33, 210 GUITAR HEAVEN: GREATEST GUITAR

7 9 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 35 25, 110 VARIOUS ARTISTS

13 14 FANTASIA 13, 097 BACK TO ME

About Kirsten 3046 Articles
Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.

104 Comments

  1. Have we seen a list (or guesstimate) of who will be releasing the same time as David or Lee? I’m curious about their ‘competition’.

  2. Today’s update for Anoop on Pop:

    260 144 ANOOP DESAI All Is Fair (Crazy Love) 21 5 16 0.016

  3. koshka: Have we seen a list (or guesstimate) of who will be releasing the same time as David or Lee? I’m curious about their ‘competition’.

    Oct 5th (Archie)
    Finger Eleven
    Guster
    Toby Keith
    Raul Malo
    Bruno Mars
    Joe Satriani
    KT Tunstall
    Sonny With A Chance OST

    Nov 16th (Lee)
    Kid Rock
    Nelly
    Rihanna
    Rascal Flatts
    Keith Urban
    SuBo’s 2nd week

    Edit: Oops Billboard says Kanye’s album is out Nov 23rd.

  4. Oct 5th (Archie)

    I’m going to guess that Toby Keith takes that week. Pop acts like Bruno don’t always open well. KT hasn’t had a presence for years. But those alt/rock guys can surprise. Archie just hasn’t managed to get much traction with his singles.

    Nov 16th (Lee)
    Kid Rock
    Nelly
    Rihanna
    Rascal Flatts
    Keith Urban
    SuBo’s 2nd week

    Woah. That’s going to be a rough week. Keith Urban is always a big seller, but who wants to bet against the monster that is SuBo? Rascal Flatts and Rihanna will probably take 3rd and 4th (though I don’t know which). Nelly has had some big openings, but Rap is having a rough go of it (with some exceptions). Kid Rock has fans and should be solid. I have to wait to see what Lee’s single does before I can figure out how his week might go.

    Of course, release dates are highly subject to change.

  5. iTunes

    #46 – IIHY
    #73 – September
    #144 – Undo It
    #150 – Mama’s Song
    #216 – WWFM
    #355 – Photograph (Santana, f. Chris Daughtry)
    #540 – LLWD
    #718 – Bittersweet
    #904 – TT

  6. Kirsten: I’m going to guess that Toby Keith takes that week. Pop acts like Bruno don’t always open well. KT hasn’t had a presence for years. But those alt/rock guys can surprise. Archie just hasn’t managed to get much traction with his singles.

    Toby Keith is who jumped out at me too but I don’t think he hit 100k with 1st week of his last album so we might be looking at Kenny Chesney being #1 for 2 weeks in a row if he really does get that 300k 1st week BNA is predicting. With Bruno Mars I would’ve thought he had a good chance to make some noise and sell like Alicia Keys/John Legend. But I think the whole arrest thing cut into his sweet old soul image and that’ll hurt him out of the gate.

    Kirsten: Woah. That’s going to be a rough week. Keith Urban is always a big seller, but who wants to bet against the monster that is SuBo? Rascal Flatts and Rihanna will probably take 3rd and 4th (though I don’t know which). Nelly has had some big openings, but Rap is having a rough go of it (with some exceptions). Kid Rock has fans and should be solid. I have to wait to see what Lee’s single does before I can figure out how his week might go.

    I don’t know how that week’s going to shake out for Lee but I would definitely expect Rascal Flatts to open bigger than Keith Urban. Rascal Flatts fans turn out 1st week and they’ve traditionally had very big opening weeks plus their albums sell more than Keith Urban’s do. Billboard predicted Rascal Flatts would get 200k and I can see them doing better than that even. But ITA that betting against SuBo is madness, she’ll probably be #1. With Lee I don’t know how much his single will matter because it might not have enough play by the time his album comes out. His sales will come down to his AI fans turning out.

    Edit: girlygirl: Billboard’s article yesterday said Kanye’s out Nov 23rd. It makes sense in that I wouldn’t expect him to go up against Rihanna. Also I don’t think the HDD list is up to date because I read at Pulse that Ciara and Jazmine Sullivan’s albums have been pushed back to November.

    But I forgot about Josh Groban. EW definitely said his album’s coming out Nov 16th. Thanks! He hasn’t had a new album in a while. He usually has a really big 1st week. His Christmas album a couple years ago was huge.

  7. Unfortunately, I don’t believe that Lee’s first week sales will be very big, so his chart position won’t really matter…unless he’s got a smash single that shoots up the charts, but there’s only seven weeks until his album drops, and no news about it.

  8. It looks like the week of November 16 is going to be a very rough week for Lee. There’s a lot of stiff competition for that week, plus it will be Susan’s second week. I think he might would have been better off releasing his album on October 26. Like his label originally intended for him to do.

    He wouldn’t have been #1 that week, it would have been Taylor, but he would have probably ranked higher than he will for the week of the 16th. Maybe he might still be able to squeeze into the Top 10 that week. But it might even be hard for him to open up Top 10 on Billboard for the week of November 16.

  9. Just getting back to check in.. thanks windmills & GG for the info on releases.

  10. I think it may be hard for Lee to make top 10 that week too. Kris was released then and couldn’t and it seemed like he had more buzz. Lee’s fanbase could be pretty big and just not vocal. I just wish him luck, he seems like a cool guy.

  11. He wouldn’t have been #1 that week, it would have been Taylor, but he would have probably ranked higher than he will for the week of the 16th. Maybe he might still be able to squeeze into the Top 10 that week. But it might even be hard for him to open up Top 10 on Billboard for the week of November 16.

    I’m not much of a Lee fan… but I think the BB weekly ranking is a little misleading, yet its batted around on artist’s resumes. Oh well, just another thing that baffles me.

    We still haven’t heard about the first single, have we? Does he have any upcoming radio interviews where he might spill the beans?

  12. With Bruno Mars I would’ve thought he had a good chance to make some noise and sell like Alicia Keys/John Legend. But I think the whole arrest thing cut into his sweet old soul image and that’ll hurt him out of the gate.

    I don’t think that a drug bust in September will do much to hurt Bruno Mars’ album sales. It hasn’t hurt his track sales (#1 on iTunes) or radio airplay now, and the incident will be mostly forgotten by November.

    I think SuBo will take #1 for at least 1 week, probably more. Rihanna is expected to open strong — and she has been building for over a year. Keith Urban lead single, “Put You in a Song”, is off to a really strong start — his album should have a strong opening week.

    Probably Rascal Flatts will do well (200K? week 1) but their lead single is not doing as well as expected. They have a very large, loyal fanbase — sure to give them a big first week — but I bet not as strong as the last album. I am less certain about Toby Keith.

    With Taylor Swift on 10/25/10 and Sugerland releasing on 10/19/10. And a few other country releases, looks like it will be a really interesting battle in Country Music.

    I am skeptical about Kidd Rock doing that much with “Born Free” — lead album track was released to radio on 9/14 and is getting no airplay. They do have a deal that it will be the MBL playoff theme — but that won’t sell a ton of albums. And his last album was released in 2007 — I don’t expect this to open strong.

    Q4 2010 is really light on Pop music — should help Bruno Mars and Rihanna. But looks like a gap to me.

    So far, I have not heard anything that exciting that is releasing this Fall. That would seem to leave an opening for someone unexpected to breakthrough. So oddly, if either Lee or Crystal put up a strong effort, they could actually do really well.

  13. I hear you Q3.. but then it makes you wonder why they are delaying Kelly Clarkson and (maybe) David C. I wonder if we can expect some surprises.

  14. Lee will be interesting. One one hand, as had been said many times, his season has something between no buzz and bad buzz. And his lead single has yet to drop. On the other hand, he seems to have not only the biggest fanbase this year, he also has the fervent female following required for decent opening Idol sales. Also, he is the only one from his season releasing in the fall, and the only 19M act up to bat for the holidays. RCA only has him and KOL as big holiday releases plus a rumored remix album for Ke$ha. He may benefit from possible extra attention of his management and label. Let’s see how far it can push him on the back of coming off such a dismissed year.

  15. I am a Lee fan, but I am trying to be realistic, and everything considered, voting figures on idol, post-idol sales, message boards buzz, twitter account, I estimate his core fanbase to be about half of Kris’ one, so his first week album sales about half as well.
    A single would help, but where is it, RCA?

  16. I don’t know how that week’s going to shake out for Lee but I would definitely expect Rascal Flatts to open bigger than Keith Urban. Rascal Flatts fans turn out 1st week and they’ve traditionally had very big opening weeks plus their albums sell more than Keith Urban’s do.

    I was thinking about Rascal Flatts tour numbers being down. They were also forced to moved to a different Disney label when Lyric Records shut down. Their “Why Wait” is in the top 10, but with not a lot of steam. I was thinking that they might have down sales this time out.

    But I forgot about Josh Groban. EW definitely said his album’s coming out Nov 16th. Thanks! He hasn’t had a new album in a while. He usually has a really big 1st week. His Christmas album a couple years ago was huge.

    Yep. Josh has some serious fans that buy everything he puts out. In all likelyhood, his latest album will be a monster. That’s turning out to be a REALLY tough date.

  17. I think it may be hard for Lee to make top 10 that week too. Kris was released then and couldn’t and it seemed like he had more buzz. Lee’s fanbase could be pretty big and just not vocal. I just wish him luck, he seems like a cool guy.

    There did seem to be at least a little more buzz around Kris’s album than there was Lee’s. Plus I think Lee’s competition for his release date is harder’s than Kris was. Even though Kris had competition as well.

    Maybe he does have a big fanbase, that’s not very vocal. Danny’s fanbase was like that. Overall, not very vocal on the internet, but did come out and help him when it was time for his album to be released. Lee’s fanbase could be like that as well. You don’t really hear a lot from them, but they might show up and help him when his album is released. For his sake and the sake of Idol, I hope they do.

    I hope that Lee can sell at least 60,000 albums during his first week. I hope he definitely sells no less than 50,000 albums his first week.

    We still haven’t heard about the first single, have we? Does he have any upcoming radio interviews where he might spill the beans?

    I haven’t really heard anything about a first single from Lee. (Didn’t Adam/Kris have singles out around this time last year?) I’m not a fan of Lee, but I wish him well. I don’t think he’s as bad as a lot of people say he is.

    He sounds like Dave Matthews/Adam Duritz at times to me, and I like some of the stuff those guys have put out. I also thought Lee sounded a bit John Mayer on some of his pre-idol stuff.

    I might end up liking some of Lee’s post Idol stuff.

  18. Maybe he does have a big fanbase, that’s not very vocal.

    I don’t think his fanbase is huge, just the biggest in his year.

    I hope that Lee can sell at least 60,000 albums during his first week. Definitely no less than 50,000 albums.

    Without knowing all the pieces yet, I’d say that is not a bad estimate.

  19. (Didn’t Adam/Kris have singles out around this time last year?)

    Kris did, and the previous year the Davids had their single out by this time of the year, but FYE was released end of October.

  20. I hope that Lee can sell at least 60,000 albums during his first week. I hope he definitely sells no less than 50,000 albums his first week.

    I can see him doing much better than that. I think what happened for the Season 8 crew seemed to have skewed many minds about how they think Idols will do. Season 8 was an untypical year and I don’t think it’s a good indication as to how things will turn out for future alums.

  21. The week Kris released his album (11/17/2009), he had to contend with new releases from;
    JOHN MAYER
    NORAH JONES
    50 CENT
    CASTING CROWNS
    JUSTIN BIEBER

    Also previous releases from;
    ANDREA BOCELLI
    TWILIGHT SAGA: NEW MOON
    MICHAEL JACKSON
    CARRIE UNDERWOOD
    Taylor Swift

    He finished at #11 (80K) on the weekly chart.

  22. What happened to Kelly Clarkson’s late 2010 release? And is there a date for Cook’s album yet? Are these albums both going to end up in Spring 2011?

    Lee and Crystal have a challenge because they seem to both of smaller fanbases than past contestants. Certainly the Idols Live tour did not indicate that they have massive numbers of fans out there. And there is no buzz about either album. Very different than previous years.

    Lee’s Amazon CD presale is #375 on the Best Sellers list.

    And look at their Twitter follower counts….
    Lee – 51,706 followers
    Crystal – 22,697 followers

    The search volume for both of them is lower that for Kris Allen or David Cook or Archie.

    Nothing indicates that either Lee or Crystal have a large, committed fanbases. So they really need to put out good albums. But looks like they have a real opportunity.

    Regarding Lee: I am not a fan but still think he could do OK if he has decent songs. But the album drop push back from October to November, and the lack of a lead single at the end of September is a bit troubling. But at least he is not with Jive.

    Crystal, on the other hand, who I really like as an artist, has me ever more worried. She has certainly given the impression that she is unhappy with the album process. And the move of her album from Spring 2011 to Fall 2011 concerns me — I was really hoping she could avoid the Idol rushed album. But my biggest worry is that something seems out-of-kilter with Jive — IMO they botched Kris album, singles and promo strategy, they screwed up Allison completely, and so far Archie’s new album has no lead single — and he gave them a really solid album.

  23. Season 8 was an untypical year and I don’t think it’s a good indication as to how things will turn out for future alums.

    With the music industry changing so much and so quickly, I don’t think we’ll know if S8 was atypical or not until the S9 release.

  24. Kris did, and the previous year the Davids had their single out by this time of the year, but FYE was released end of October.

    Adam was getting press for his movie soundtrack gig (TfM) in early October, so they could wait to release FYE (plus it sounds like they changed horses to FYE when he got the AMA gig, so they had to do a bit or re-planning).

    I suspect that given recent trends, we should see a Lee single very soon. In the past, the RCA Music Group didn’t drop Idol singles until a couple of weeks before (if not months after) the album dropped, but with the success of Jordin’s first album, it was shown that a pre-release single can help sustain sales better than a last minute single.

    Given the issues with Season 9, RCA would be wiser to follow the Jordin template than the Taylor Hicks template to releasing singles.

  25. I was thinking about Rascal Flatts tour numbers being down. They were also forced to moved to a different Disney label when Lyric Records shut down. Their “Why Wait” is in the top 10, but with not a lot of steam. I was thinking that they might have down sales this time out.

    Rascal Flatts is on Big Machine now (label mates with Taylor Swift). The Big Machine is not a disney label (at least I never knew they were – LOL). Their new single is moving up right along with Taylor’s as well. I see them making a big splash when their album comes out. People have said that the sound of their song, “Why Wait” takes them back to their original sound that made them so popular in the first place.

  26. On the other hand, he seems to have not only the biggest fanbase this year, he also has the fervent female following required for decent opening Idol sales.

    I am a Lee fan, but I am trying to be realistic, and everything considered, voting figures on idol, post-idol sales, message boards buzz, twitter account, I estimate his core fanbase to be about half of Kris’ one, so his first week album sales about half as well.

    I think that Lee reminds at least some people of past idols and that’s one of the reasons why some people are drawn to him. I know that a portion of the online Danny fans and some online David Cook fans are fans of him. And I’ve seen some of them say it’s because he reminds them of David Cook/Danny.

    I think it’s possible that there might be some offline fans who are drawn to Lee, because he reminds them of these guys ( and/or maybe someone else). Maybe there might be enough of these people that will buy his album and help him out. Maybe he has gained enough David Cook/Danny Gokey/etc, fans who will at least give him some okay first week album sales.

  27. And look at their Twitter follower counts….
    Lee – 51,706 followers
    Crystal – 22,697 followers

    Earliest Twitter numbers I have for their S8 counterparts are as of Nov 7 last year. At that time, Kris had 117,091 followers and Adam had 225,241. Kris and Adam are presently at 212,338 and 685,839, respectively.

  28. I can see him doing much better than that. I think what happened for the Season 8 crew seemed to have skewed many minds about how they think Idols will do. Season 8 was an untypical year and I don’t think it’s a good indication as to how things will turn out for future alums.

    IMO, the way that Season 9 really underwperformed and the lack of buzz surrounding season 9, plus the canceled tour dates, has caused me to estimate Lee’s debut albums numbers on the lower side. I think that Lee might not do as well as past idol winners have done, because IMO Season 9 was such a lackluster season.

    I do think that future idols like maybe Season 10 idols and beyond might do better than the season 9 idols will do. And possibly better than some of the season 8 idols as well. I think that Season 9 being a very weak season could have an affect on Lee’s debut album sales.

  29. Rascal Flatts is on Big Machine now (label mates with Taylor Swift). The Big Machine is not a disney label (at least I never knew they were – LOL).

    Oh, I just assumed that Rascal Flatts would be moving over to a different Disney label when the company folded Lyric Street Records. You are correct, despite the earlier press releases, they ended moving to Big Machine which was founded by one of the dudes from Dreamworks. Maybe now their songs will appear on Shrek soundtracks instead of Pixar ones. LOL.

    I wonder what happened to the songs they had recorded for Disney (they were working on an album when Lyric Street Records folded in April, 2010). Were they able to transfer them to Big Machine or did they start all over? Record label politics can be interesting. I can’t imagine Disney was thrilled to lose them.

    Thanks for catching that.

  30. I think Bruno will take the week. The ONLY thing that might hold him back is that he has some of the songs from the EP on the album which alot of people have bought as singles already, certainly not the drug arrest. He also will be performing on SNL 4 days later. I imagine he will have a huge banner on Itunes too.

  31. Q3: I don’t think that a drug bust in September will do much to hurt Bruno Mars’ album sales. It hasn’t hurt his track sales (#1 on iTunes) or radio airplay now, and the incident will be mostly forgotten by November.

    Probably but his album’s coming out next week (October 5th). That’s what I meant by right out of the gate. My theory was it takes extra investment in the artist to pick up a whole album and that’ll be hurt somewhat. Maybe not, I don’t know!

    Q3: Keith Urban lead single, “Put You in a Song”, is off to a really strong start — his album should have a strong opening week.

    Probably Rascal Flatts will do well (200K? week 1) but their lead single is not doing as well as expected.

    Keith’s single on Billboard’s 2nd full week on country radio: 1414 spins, 9.730 million AIs
    Rascal Flatts’s single on Billboard 1st full week on country radio (it came out on a Thursday for a partial week 1st): 1236 spins, 9.252 million AIs

    Neither single’s really doing better or worse than expectations. Rascal Flatts started with lost momentum and Kirsten‘s right that RF’s tour numbers are down too. Considering all that Why Wait’s actually gotten some people behind them again. But at the same time they’re stuck in a logjam of tons of lead singles and they’re not looking like the strongest out of the bunch. I wouldn’t be surprised if Keith Urban’s song ended up in the same position.

    Kirsten: I was thinking that they might have down sales this time out.

    Oh ITA their sales will be down. The main reason I think they’ll still outsell Keith Urban is: Keith Urban’s last album Defying Gravity came out March 2009 and sold 172k. Rascal Flatts released Unstoppable the week after that and got 351k in April 2009.

    Q3: With Taylor Swift on 10/25/10 and Sugerland releasing on 10/19/10. And a few other country releases, looks like it will be a really interesting battle in Country Music.

    Q4 2010 for country music is CRAZY. Check this out:

    9/14 Jamey Johnson
    9/21 Zac Brown Band
    Billy Currington
    9/28 Kenny Chesney
    10/5 Toby Keith
    10/12 Darius Rucker
    10/19 Sugarland
    10/26 Taylor Swift
    11/2 Jason Aldean
    Brad Paisley Live/Greatest Hits
    11/9 Reba
    Loretta Lynn tribute album
    11/16 Rascal Flatts
    Keith Urban
    11/23 Alan Jackson Greatest Hits
    11/30 Tim McGraw Greatest Hits

    It’s not just a crowded schedule. It’s a crowded schedule of most of country music’s biggest sales and radio acts with just a few of them sitting out this year.

    Kirsten: I wonder what happened to the songs they had recorded for Disney (they were working on an album when Lyric Street Records folded in April, 2010). Were they able to transfer them to Big Machine or did they start all over?

    They were definitely able to transfer their recordings. I read about this somewhere but I can’t find the link. But one example: they were teasing on Twitter last summer how they were recording a surprise duet with a big female star. I don’t think anybody guessed who it was back then. Turns out she’s Natasha Bedingfield and that song’s on their album (it’s called Easy).

  32. I am not sure how big Lee’s fanabse is, but based on the sales of his songs right after idol and the lack of buzz for season 9′ I don’t think he will have very big numbers in his first week. This might change if his single will be an instant smash hit on several formats(which is unlikely imo).

    Considering Crystal music is not very commercial and especially if she will release in the Spring and not fall, I doubt she will open with big numbers. It is not just about the quality of the album- the best albums are not always the ones that are selling the best. I also not sure of which format her music will be played if she will refuse to do compromise on the style of the music. I am not worried about the quality of the album that Jive will let her put(I think that Kris’s album is really good, for example), but I don’t know how much promotion they will give her, especially if she will not compromise on the release date.

  33. IMO, the way that Season 9 really underwperformed and the lack of buzz surrounding season 9, plus the canceled tour dates, has caused me to estimate Lee’s debut albums numbers on the lower side.

    I’m still wondering about what the tour performance means. Season 8’s tour did as well as Season 7, so I was really surprised at how poorly Kris and Adam did with their first single release (first week sales-wise, not the eventual sales), or their album sales. I tend to think that there was a greater spread of interest with Season 8 contestant – for example Season 7 there were really only the two Davids who sold well, everyone else did poorly in their sales (Carly Smithson, Brooke White, Jason Castro, and Kristy Lee Cook all sold around 30K), but for Season 8 there are 4 who sold more than 100k of their albums.

    I think Season 9 would be more like Season 3 (poor concert attendance, cancelled tour dates), where only Fantasia sold well (sales of Jennifer Hudson’s album was down to her Oscar win and not her Idol fan base, and Diana DeGarmo probably sold the equivalent of fewer than 100K in today’s sales). I suspect Lee will get the bulk of the album sales this season, not so much for the others.

    I have yet to hear of what signifance twitter followers has.

  34. I can see him (Lee) doing much better than that. I think what happened for the Season 8 crew seemed to have skewed many minds about how they think Idols will do. Season 8 was an untypical year and I don’t think it’s a good indication as to how things will turn out for future alums.

    I guess we’ll find out in November. I agree, Lee and Crystal will have different sales results than Season 8 — but I think probably lower sales, not higher sales.

    Why should Lee or Crystal sell more than Kris and Adam? It is harder than ever to sell albums, Idol is coming off a weak ratings season, they had a somewhat unsuccessful Idol Summer Tour, etc. The post show iTunes sales were weaker than AI8. What indicates bigger sales?

    I will not make any specific predictions until I hear the lead singles and some of their albums. A lot will depend on the album quality. But I can’t see either Lee or Crystal selling 100,000 in their debut week and think both will have trouble hitting 500K in album sales.

    And even if Lee matches the units sold by Kris — Lee’s CD and iTunes allbum are both retailing at $11.99. Kris’ CD was released with an MSRP of $13.99 plus there was the iTunes pass at apx. $18.99 (I think? or $19.99?). So even setting aside the iTunes pass, Lee needs to sell 16.6% more units to match the wholesale revenue Kris generated — and wholesale is what the label gets to cover costs, pay royalties, etc. And most royalties are calculated from Retail Price, not discounted selling price, so MSRP matters to the artist, too. Fans and the media may focus on units sold, the label execs focus mostly on delivering profits.

  35. Q4 2010 for country music is CRAZY. Check this out:

    9/14 Jamey Johnson
    9/21 Zac Brown Band
    Billy Currington
    9/28 Kenny Chesney
    10/5 Toby Keith
    10/12 Darius Rucker
    10/19 Sugarland
    10/26 Taylor Swift
    11/2 Jason Aldean
    Brad Paisley Live/Greatest Hits
    11/9 Reba
    Loretta Lynn tribute album
    11/16 Rascal Flatts
    Keith Urban
    11/23 Alan Jackson Greatest Hits
    11/30 Tim McGraw Greatest Hits

    It’s not just a crowded schedule. It’s a crowded schedule of most of country music’s biggest sales and radio acts with just a few of them sitting out this year.

    WOW, that really is crazy! I’m actually glad that Casey (or should I say the Casey James Band) isn’t dropping until next spring. Maybe the glut of new music will be played out by the new year, so he can make a bigger splash with a different sound. Fingers crossed!

  36. I have yet to hear of what signifance twitter followers has.

    I think Twitter can help the idols. It shows some of the interest in the different idols, plus it’s a way for them to promote themselves and their music. Lee’s Twitter following is lower than the other idols were around this time last year. Danny also didn’t have a very vocal fanbase, but I think he might have passed or was very close to 100,000 followers on Twitter around this time last year.

    I know that Danny has tweeted about his album and singles, and it did help him get more single sales/album sales. It helped him out with pre-orders and it reached a lot of his fans online, who don’t normally post/frequent other sites about the idols. The bulk of the online Danny fans are on Twitter, and him tweeting about his music helped him reach some of those fans.

    I’ve seen some on Twitter, who didn’t know he had music coming out until he tweeted about it.

    Other idols have used Twitter and it’s helped them out with different stuff. I think that it does help the idols out at times.

  37. I guess we’ll find out in November. I agree, Lee and Crystal will have different sales results than Season 8 — but I think probably lower sales, not higher sales.

    Why should Lee or Crystal sell more than Kris and Adam? It is harder than ever to sell albums, Idol is coming off a weak ratings season, they had a somewhat unsuccessful Idol Summer Tour, etc. The post show iTunes sales were weaker than AI8. What indicates bigger sales?

    I think that at this point, the factors that we know about suggest that Lee/Crystal will probably definitely sell less than Adam. And that they might sell less than Kris as well. I think that Crystal will sell less than Kris. Lee, I’m not really sure about, but he could less than Kris too.

  38. BTW my prediction for #1 for the October 5th releases: top debut will be Sonny With A Chance OST ;) (Disney scares me) and #1 will probably be Kenny. Hoping Archie does well though. Bruno Mars could totally kick everybody’s butt but I think he’ll do solid not great out of the gate.

    Q3: What happened to Kelly Clarkson’s late 2010 release?

    According to Kelly on Twitter, there’s music but TPTB are taking forever to do something with it. According to Aben Eubanks (Kelly’s guitarist and cowriter), he’d bet on next year for the new album.

    Based on Beautiful Day sales out of the gate I think JX223‘s 60k prediction’s a good one and I’d go so far as predicting 60-75k for Lee’s 1st week.

    OvenMitt: WOW, that really is crazy! I’m actually glad that Casey (or should I say the Casey James Band) isn’t dropping until next spring. Maybe the glut of new music will be played out by the new year, so he can make a bigger splash with a different sound. Fingers crossed!

    Casey would’ve totally gotten lost in the shuffle if he’d released this fall. As far as next year the names that come to mind for the 1st half of the year are Sara Evans, Steel Magnolia, Craig Morgan, and Martina. I feel like Chris Young’s a possibility too and maybe Luke Bryan. Jake Owen and Chuck Wicks too if they can get singles going. That’s not an all inclusive list but it’s definitely fewer big names than what’s coming up the rest of this year. Craig, Sara, and Steel Magnolia should all be pretty earl y 2011.

  39. I wonder what happened to the songs they had recorded for Disney (they were working on an album when Lyric Street Records folded in April, 2010). Were they able to transfer them to Big Machine or did they start all over? Record label politics can be interesting. I can’t imagine Disney was thrilled to lose them.

    I did some research. It appears that the Disney Group made an arrangement with Big Machine to release RF new album and that the RF catalogue will remain with the Disney Group. It does sound like what they had recorded moved over to Big Machine.

  40. Why should Lee or Crystal sell more than Kris and Adam? It is harder than ever to sell albums, Idol is coming off a weak ratings season, they had a somewhat unsuccessful Idol Summer Tour, etc. The post show iTunes sales were weaker than AI8. What indicates bigger sales?

    Yes. I have to say the leading indicators are not promising. Even the pre-sales on Amazon are grim. This is very reminiscent of Season 6. Ratings drop during the competition rounds, poorly selling coronation singles, dismal concert attendance and no buzz.

    Ah, but you say, Jordin sold a boatload of singles and her album went platinum. Yes, she did. But that is because she put out some very commercial singles. The label basically had to start from scratch with her. The released her lead-off single in August and she survived the post-Christmas plummet by having that single peaking at that time. Jordin was the first Idol to reach 200K in download sales in a single week with that single.

    So, Lee can very well be a success, but he’ll need a successful single and the time is ticking on that one. Certainly, his style of music can generate big singles, but those tend to be slow burners (not instantly exploding up the chart). If record sales plummet after Christmas and the single is still slow burning it’s way up the chart, will the label have the patience?

  41. Why should Lee or Crystal sell more than Kris and Adam?

    I think Lee can sell more than Kris, but Crystal certainly not better than Adam. To me Kris’ poor performance is the puzzle, not anyone else’s past or future likely performance in sales. I have offered suggestions as to why before, but we’ll be going over well-trodden ground, but suffice just to say I don’t think he has as many fans as others like to believe. I also think Adam would have sold much more (I think he would have gone platinum by now) if he hadn’t chosen that stupid album cover. It’s a bit of self-indulgence that lost him a lot of sales – he certainly lost mine, and I’m not fazed by outlandish covers (and it isn’t), but I do object to yucky taste.

  42. I think that at this point, the factors that we know about suggest that Lee/Crystal will probably definitely sell less than Adam. And that they might sell less than Kris as well. I think that Crystal will sell less than Kris. Lee, I’m not really sure about, but he could less than Kris too.

    I agree about the comparison with Adam’s sales, and I definitely think that Lee’s first week sales will be lower than Kris’s because of a smaller fanbase, but the total sales is a different matter, and I have no idea, hopefully it will be decent in a long run.
    Considering that KATA opened with 80k, 50k for Lee as others have suggested seems like a reasonable estimation.

  43. I did some research. It appears that the Disney Group made an arrangement with Big Machine to release RF new album and that the RF catalogue will remain with the Disney Group. It does sound like what they had recorded moved over to Big Machine.

    That sounds like a terrible deal for Disney. I thought the Mouse had more smarts. Usually, the label owns the recordings so why would they need to strike a deal to keep them? And I would hope they would at least get the advance they paid to RF back (I’m sure it wasn’t small). Oh well, I’m sure that there is more in the behind the scenes deal than we will ever know. Maybe Dreamworks has to stop making cracks about Disney in their movies. ;-)

    Thanks for the info. I love how we can get so much info from around net compiled here.

  44. I think Lee can sell more than Kris, but Crystal certainly not better than Adam. To me Kris’ poor performance is the puzzle, not anyone else’s past or future likely performance in sales. I have offered suggestions as to why before, but we’ll be going over well-trodden ground, but suffice just to say I don’t think he has as many fans as others like to believe. I also think Adam would have sold much more (I think he would have gone platinum by now) if he hadn’t chosen that stupid album cover. It’s a bit of self-indulgence that lost him a lot of sales – he certainly lost mine, and I’m not fazed by outlandish covers (and it isn’t), but I do object to yucky taste.

    Hehe, Adam’s album cover IS a tad Lisa Frank/beauty shop Nagel-ish. Perhaps that combined with in iffy first single and even more iffy AMA performance slowed his momentum. He really picked back up steam, though, with WWFM. It’s hard to live up to the degree of hype Adam had coming off Idol, though; every step (even something as seemingly small as an album cover) is crucial.

    As for CrystaLee, it’s going to take some pretty impressive material for them to break out post-Idol. It’s too bad that Season 9 was so badly panned, but since they were a part of it, they’ve got a big hole from which to climb out. Hopefully the talent that voters saw in them will shine through on these debut albums and cast a better light on them, Season 9 and the entire Idol franchise. We shall see!

  45. That country album release list is just amazing! And there is barely a major pop release on the schedule.

    Keith’s single on Billboard’s 2nd full week on country radio: 1414 spins, 9.730 million AIs
    Rascal Flatts’s single on Billboard 1st full week on country radio (it came out on a Thursday for a partial week 1st): 1236 spins, 9.252 million AIs

    Neither single’s really doing better or worse than expectations. Rascal Flatts started with lost momentum and Kirsten’s right that RF’s tour numbers are down too. Considering all that Why Wait’s actually gotten some people behind them again. But at the same time they’re stuck in a logjam of tons of lead singles and they’re not looking like the strongest out of the bunch. I wouldn’t be surprised if Keith Urban’s song ended up in the same position.

    I think RF could do 200K first week, well below their last album’s first week at 351K. But still big in 2010 numbers. So I think we all agree.

    Regarding my comment on RF and Keith.

    I was looking at track sales for the lead single not radio. Keith Urban — is at #59 Digital Songs chart, #82 on Hot 100, and looks like it is getting cross-over sales. RF WW is not selling like the recent hits have.

    Current country digital songs chart:
    7 NEW 1 Put You In A Song, Keith Urban
    25 25 5 Why Wait, Rascal Flatts

    From Billboard Biz: “Over on Billboard’s Country Digital Songs, Keith Urban claims his best sales week and highest rank since the chart launched in January, as “Put You In a Song” (Capitol Nashville) debuts at No. 7 with 23,000 downloads. Previously during that time, his best Nielsen SoundScan week happened when “Only You Can Love Me This Way” sold 18,000 downloads on the February 6 chart. The artist’s new song takes the Most Increased Audience nod on Hot Country Songs, where it gains 3.4 million impressions and rises 29-23 in its second chart week.” Link: http://www.billboard.biz/billboardbiz/photos/pdf/country_update_0927.pdf

    RF Why Wait is charting mostly on airplay. And, of course, they are going to get Country airplay. Released: August 2, 2010. It is now #12 on Country Song chart — and it was expected to be a top 10 song.

    I have yet to hear of what signifance twitter followers has.

    Not much on its own. It is just one indication that Lee may not have a large fanbase. Add it to the list of other facts about Lee — online traffic, sales of iTunes tracks, preorders for his album, low concert receipts, low Idol vote total, etc.

    Season 8’s tour did as well as Season 7, so I was really surprised at how poorly Kris and Adam did with their first single release (first week sales-wise, not the eventual sales), or their album sales.

    Don’t know how much it matters since both lead singles sold more than 1.5 million in the US and got a ton of radio support. But Adam did not have a clean lead album single — FYE released for sale on 11/3/10. WWFM was released to radio on 11/18/10 and for sale on 11/20/10. The album was released on 11/23/10. Then throw in TFM and three MVs just to really mix it all up. I think RCA has done a brilliant job promoting Adam but that initial wave of singles, the dueling videos, and lack of clarity in the branding and launch was a mess. Thankfully WWFM and FYE album sold well.

    Kris had a traditional lead album single but not a classic pop-rock song for the first single. LLWD needed a lot of radio exposure before people bought it. But it sold, and sold. And it is still getting airplay almost a year later.

    David Cook, for example, had a traditional launch schedule and a more mainstream alt. rock song for his first single. Light On was released on 9/30/08 and Cook’s album was released on 11/18/10.

  46. Let’s play some numbers game and see if we can use it to predict this year sales –

    For total album sales (first albums)
    Season 7
    David Cook – 1,310,000
    David Archuleta – 758,000
    Carly Smithson – 34,000
    Jason Castro – 34,000
    Kristy Lee Cook – 32,000
    Brooke White – 29,000
    Michael Johns – 22,000

    Total 2,219,000

    Season 8
    Adam Lambert – 731,000
    Kris Allen – 318,000
    Danny Gokey – 184,000
    Allison Iraheta – 103,000
    Michael Sarver – 1,000
    Anoop Desai – 1,000

    Total 1,338,000

    Here they are off by almost a million, you can’t explain that by the general decline in album sales. Yet Season 8 tour did well.

    Now if we look at first weeks sales, which I think gives an indication of the size of Idol fan base –

    Season 7
    David Cook – David Cook – 279,578
    David Archuleta – David Archuleta – 166,000
    Jason Castro – Jason Castro – 20,000
    Carly Smithson – Tear the World Down (We Are The Fallen) – 13,000
    Brooke White – High Hopes & Heartbreak- 9,835
    Kristy Lee Cook – Why Wait – 9,548
    Michael Johns – Hold Back My Heart – 7,000

    Total – 504,961

    Season 8
    Adam Lambert – For Your Entertainment – 198,000
    Kris Allen – Kris Allen – 80,000
    Danny Gokey – My Best Days – 65,000
    Allison Iraheta – Just Like You – 32,000
    Michael Sarver – Michael Sarver – 1,000
    Anoop Desai – All Is Fair – 1,000

    Total – 377,000

    Now, the Season 8 total doesn’t look too bad once you adjust it for the general fall in album sales. Off by only a fifth perhaps. Say if Season 8 and Season 7 tour did equally well, then perhaps you can say there is some correlation between how well the tour did, the fan base size and first week album sales. Just need to add a bit of fudge factor.

    Now if we assume that there was only half the attendance for Season 9’s tour compared to Season 8, translate that to total first week album sales, you get 188,500. And let’s say that Lee gets at least half of that, you’d have >94,000. You can minus a bit for general decline of album sales, then plus or minus a bit of fudge factor, you might end up with 60-110K.

    Of course, there are a lot of assumptions in there, none of which could be true, but just saying that there is no reason to assume that Lee would do worse than Kris, in fact he could very well do better. I’ve said before that Lee might do 100-150K for his first week, perhaps it’s too optimistic, but I’m happy to stick with that for the time being.

  47. Of course, there are a lot of assumptions in there, none of which could be true, but just saying that there is no reason to assume that Lee would do worse than Kris, in fact he could very well do better. I’ve said before that Lee might do 100-150K for his first week, perhaps it’s too optimistic, but I’m happy to stick with that for the time being.

    There is no way in this world that Lee is going to sell between 100-150k albums. Lee is not even as popular as Kris was and he only sold 80,000 his first week. He will be lucky to get between what Gokey and Allison sold.

  48. Kirsten:
    09/28/2010 at 3:15 pm

    I did some research. It appears that the Disney Group made an arrangement with Big Machine to release RF new album and that the RF catalogue will remain with the Disney Group. It does sound like what they had recorded moved over to Big Machine.

    That sounds like a terrible deal for Disney. I thought the Mouse had more smarts. Usually, the label owns the recordings so why would they need to strike a deal to keep them? And I would hope they would at least get the advance they paid to RF back (I’m sure it wasn’t small). Oh well, I’m sure that there is more in the behind the scenes deal than we will ever know. Maybe Dreamworks has to stop making cracks about Disney in their movies. ;-)

    Disney established a “partnership” with Big Machine to release this album because after Disney closed down their Lyric Street record label, they had no team to handle the launch. Most of the RF Promo team for Lyric St stayed with RF to handle their tour, etc.

    The terms of the deal are not public but the mouse prob did just fine. Also, I believe the “partnership” is actually actually a project JV.

  49. Hey Q3 I don’t wanna press this issue too much because I agree we all agree ;) But just one more thing to explain why I think Rascal Flatts outsells Keith Urban 1st week (believe me, I’d rather it be the other way around): their 1st week sales for Why Wait were 40k to Keith Urban’s 23k. I think that still means they’ve got a bigger fanbase waiting to pounce their 1st week.

    BUT to go along with the theory of a big dropoff: their last lead single Here Comes Goodbye (cowritten by Chris Sligh from AI) sold 126k its 1st week out. Considering digital sales have grown that’s probably worrying for them. Especially seeing as their total sales through 5 weeks are only 86k. But Scott Borchetta of Big Machine is all about the promo so they’ll probably make out just fine in the end, I’m sure he wants to prove to them they made the right choice.

  50. Here they are off by almost a million, you can’t explain that by the general decline in album sales. Yet Season 8 tour did well.

    Are you looking at the same point in time or total to date? Season 7 has a whole year of sales on Season 8.

  51. Haezhel, that was a fun read! LOL

    I think if Adam, as the winner of the “big idol fanbase” sweepstakes of S8, could pull off 198K I would use that as a base to see what Lee could do.

    Adam’s number is difficult to discern to me because it was on Black Friday Week and it was released on Monday giving him an extra day, AND it was the night after a heavily hyped high profile performance. On the other hand, that performance was highly controversial and could have turned off some of his Idol fans. Its a tough call to me. I’ll assume that the 2 factors evened themselves out.

    So if we use the tour and the after idol ITunes sales to go by, I think saying that Lee is on track to do about half is right. So taking in the overall decline in album sales and halving that I come up with about 84K. Which is about what Kris did. Putting in big a margin of error I’d say we are looking at 60-100K for Lee.

    No single and no buzz (as of now ) points to the lower end of the scale IMO, so I think he’ll see 60-80K unless things change significantly.

    How’s that for ass-talking voodoo math! LOL! That was fun. :D

  52. YES. Z100 adds September. I hope that gets other big markets on board.

  53. No single and no buzz (as of now ) points to the lower end of the scale IMO, so I think he’ll see 60-80K unless things change significantly.

    How’s that for ass-talking voodoo math! LOL! That was fun.

    I think Lee will sell aroung 50k his first week. The eye opener was Katy Perry, who with 2 HUUUUUGE summer singles and is an established act only sold about the same as Adam her first week.

  54. I’ll go with Lee selling about 60K his first week. That feels right to me.

  55. Of course, there are a lot of assumptions in there, none of which could be true, but just saying that there is no reason to assume that Lee would do worse than Kris, in fact he could very well do better. I’ve said before that Lee might do 100-150K for his first week, perhaps it’s too optimistic, but I’m happy to stick with that for the time being.

    If Lee had the fanbase to do 100K-150K, he would be in the top 10 on Amazon for his album presale. Highest I have seen is #85 and it is now at #406 on the Amazon Best Sellers list.

    The sales analysis based on Idol history is interesting but….here is my stab at a number 55K-65K and only because of the Idol brand, Sony’s need to liquidate costs and RCA’s promo machine.

    Regarding Adam’s album cover — you can’t get just parts of Adam without the whole package. You can’t have the man who is unrestrained and spectacular on stage, then reject a totally campy album cover. You don’t get the heartfelt emotion of Sleepwalker without the AMA performance. It is all connected and not a Chinese menu.

  56. Yay for Daughtry! That’s a big deal.

    The eye opener was Katy Perry, who with 2 HUUUUUGE summer singles and is an established act only sold about the same as Adam her first week.

    I think that’s a bit different. People coming off idol during the holidays have inflated album sales. And Katy Perry is very much a Rihanna type IMO, where people don’t rush out to buy the album – she has to build sales over time with a bunch of super hot singles.

  57. So, today is the add date for song Dirty Picture by Taio Cruz (feat. Ke$ha). Cumulus didn’t hesitate to add it.

  58. Why would Cumulus hesitate to add Taio Cruz/Ke$ha. Sounds like a made in heaven match for their format.

  59. YES. Z100 adds September. I hope that gets other big markets on board.

    That’s great news for Daughtry :).

  60. Boy comparing Lee and Kris is hard. I have a tough time judging the buzz around Kris and Lee. Kris got a lot of buzz for beating Adam. But did that buzz translate into album sales? If you take away the AI title upset, what kind of buzz would Kris have had? Is it the same amount that Lee has now?

    I do think, however, that Kris had a much stronger run on AI than Lee did. Kris had some water cooler performances where I don’t think Lee ever had what I consider an AI moment. We can see that by the number of post AI downloads Kris and Lee sold. Also, as much as we like to mock “No Boundaries” it was at least an original song. I actually like Kris’s studio version. I have heard NoBo on the radio more than once and I can’t say that I have ever heard Lee’s BD single. Kris also had (and still has) one song from his AI days, “Heartless” being spun.

    So I don’t know, if Lee sells more than Kris, (which I doubt) I don’t think it will be by much. My prediction is that Lee will sell around 60,000.

  61. Regarding Adam’s album cover — you can’t get just parts of Adam without the whole package. You can’t have the man who is unrestrained and spectacular on stage, then reject a totally campy album cover. You don’t get the heartfelt emotion of Sleepwalker without the AMA performance. It is all connected and not a Chinese menu.

    I don’t know how this came up but I wholeheartedly agree. Adam has so many sides that it explains why he is so fascinating to so many people a year and a half later. This is why I really don’t know what to expect with his next album even though he has suggested it will be along the WWFM and IIHY vein. I think ultimately his immense creativity will take over and he will twist and turn the concepts into something very different. Well, we will see.

  62. I would guess 50-70K for Lee’s first week sales. No buzz for him or for S9 as a whole, plus what appears to be a smaller (if vocal/rabid) hardcore fanbase than Kris or David Cook, plus lousy CD sale for artists as a whole = fairly low expectations.

  63. Hazehel, Thank you for collecting the numbers – they have nudged me into connecting with an article I read from The National Bureau of Economic Research last week. I’m not a NumberNerd, but I will try to explain what I believe they show – by adding in the first week numbers from Season 6, in 2007.

    According to the research findings, our Great Recession they are documenting ran from December of 2007 to June of 2009. With the run up to the decline and hopeful upturn at either end of the time frame – that covers Idol Seasons 6, 7, and 8. According to the stats, 2009 eventually showed signs of recovery, that upward trend just beginning is why that date is the cut-off point. Doesn’t mean the economy was in good shape – just recovering, in their opinion. Certainly, it doesn’t mean the music industry is in good shape now – they have other problems of their own. And the data collectors are warning of another downturn.

    From the postings that I recall in 2008, it took a long time for people in the Idol Bubble to adjust their First Week Sales expectations to the economic reality – maybe even longer to factor in the music piracy, which has only grown….although they are both part of the dialogue now. You have incorporated the economy into your projections above.

    But what I see when I look at the first week sales of the winner and runner up from 2007 to 2009 is that the anomaly during the recession is Season 7, right in the middle of the economic downturn. From your first week sales numbers – adding in Season 6.

    Season 6
    Jordin Sparks – Jordin Sparks – 119,119
    Blake Lewis – Blake Lewis – 98,000

    Season 7
    David Cook – David Cook – 279,578
    David Archuleta – David Archuleta – 166,000

    Season 8
    Adam Lambert – For Your Entertainment – 198,000
    Kris Allen – Kris Allen – 80,000

    I’m not adding any other stats – my head may explode from the variables – *grin* – but given the state of the economy, there realistically was no statistical reason to expect Season 7 to act the way it did (even if the Idol pundits weren’t noticing, at the time)….If the economy improves, and Promo remains equal – Season 9 first week sales have a shot at being in the ballpark with season 6 and 8. If it dips down again – Season 9 sales will likely reflect that – because the popularity of Season 7 isn’t happening here.

    Just a thought.

  64. CHART DATE: 09/27/2010
    LAST UPDATE: 09/28/2010 14:22:28
    NOW IN: FINAL

    – 1 MAROON 5 A&M/OCTONE 155,898 HANDS ALL OVER
    – 2 ZAC BROWN BAND ATLANTIC 154,769 YOU GET WHAT YOU GIVE
    1 3 LINKIN PARK WARNER BROS. 67,136 A THOUSAND SUNS
    – 4 SANTANA ARISTA/RMG 66,129 GUITAR HEAVEN: GREATEST GUITAR
    3 5 EMINEM SHADY/AFTERMATH/INT 64,425 RECOVERY

    7 11 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 35 CAPITOL/EMI 30,196 VARIOUS ARTISTS

    13 16 FANTASIA J RECORDS/RMG 18,641 BACK TO ME
    So M5 predicted to edge out ZBB for the top spot?

    ——————————————–
    ETA: Maybe not HDD reposted the numbers

    HITSDD
    After the re-recount, make that Zac Brown Band with the top album, just beating out Maroon 5

    – 1 ZAC BROWN BAND ATLANTIC 154,769
    YOU GET WHAT YOU GIVE
    – 2 MAROON 5 A&M/OCTONE 146,727
    HANDS ALL OVER

  65. So, today is the add date for song Dirty Picture by Taio Cruz (feat. Ke$ha). Cumulus didn’t hesitate to add it.

    Why would Cumulus hesitate to add Taio Cruz/Ke$ha. Sounds like a made in heaven match for their format.

    The song is basically a paean to sexting. Kinda controversial I would think.

  66. aa618892:
    09/28/2010 at 4:30 pm
    Are you looking at the same point in time or total to date? Season 7 has a whole year of sales on Season 8.

    Perhaps, but they have both had a year of sales at least, and after the first 10 months or so the numbers don’t change alot. No singles, etc. have been released by the Season 7 crew after that first year, so I don’t think the numbers have changed a whole heck of a lot since this time last year. Cook has sold a few singles and albums since then, but not a statiscally relevant number.

  67. Do you all think there is a lot of cross buying between fans of different idols? I am a big Crystal fan but I still plan on looking into Lee and Casey’s cds and buying them. I do think the season 9 contestants will sell a lot fewer albums, but the one advantage I think might be that there wasn’t as much hard feelings this year, and the top 3 are a lot closer in genre. I know there are a few Adam+Kris fans out there, but judging by how raw it seems some of the emotions were at the time I can’t imagine that people were picking up the album of the supposed “rival”. Just trying to find a small silver lining I guess lol.

  68. but judging by how raw it seems some of the emotions were at the time I can’t imagine that people were picking up the album of the supposed “rival”.

    Gangreen, you can check that on iTunes – there’s a section for ‘people who bought this album also bought’ – with a list of other artists. There was plenty of cross purchasing between the Davids’ fans- which may have been unexpected. I never checked the ‘also boughts’ for Season 8 – but it would answer your question.

  69. Now this is only one way of trying to figure out a person’s support/popularity — and certainly not the most accurate one. But consider this: Lee has just over 50,000 followers on twitter (51,763) — or less than 1/4 than amount that Kris has (212,371). He also has far fewer friends than Kris on Facebook.

    Then throw in the fact that Kris had far more radio play/sales success immediately after winning S8 (with NoBo and with Heartless) than Lee has had since winning s9 (with Beautiful Day), and I’m not sure how Lee would be expected to outsell Kris.
    now maybe he will — he could put out a kick-ass album that gets critical raves and his single could blow up on radio. So it’s not impossible that Lee would outsell Kris — it’s just that, at this moment, I don’t see any signs that suggest that he will.

  70. I don’t care about Lee enough to track his pre-sales but in my experience you can develop a sense of how well they might do by observing how their album is doing with pre-sales at Amazon, Itunes and the other online sites comparative to other releases expected to do well.

  71. I tend to think that there was a greater spread of interest with Season 8 contestant – for example Season 7 there were really only the two Davids who sold well, everyone else did poorly in their sales (Carly Smithson, Brooke White, Jason Castro, and Kristy Lee Cook all sold around 30K), but for Season 8 there are 4 who sold more than 100k of their albums.

    Hazehel, I always enjoy your analysis because you make numbers so fun to think about. I think that it is worth noting that of the 4 who sold more than 100k in S8 all were on major labels, all were signed to 19 recordings, and all put out a record within the first year of the show ending. Kristy was the only other S7 besides the winner and runnerup that meets that criteria, and admittedly her album flopped (to be fair it had a lot against it and was recorded in 4 days, etc). Jason was also on a major label, but waited a long time to release material and wasn’t with 19. The others you mentioned like Carly, Michael, and Brooke were indie releases. Compare their sales to other indie releases from S8 (Anoop, Michael Sarver, etc) and their sales actually look pretty good .

    Do you all think there is a lot of cross buying between fans of different idols?

    gangreen29, I think there must be because whenever you buy one idol they always recommend another idol for you to buy. I think a lot of people aren’t necessarily invested in just one contestant each season and may pick a couple favs to purchase.

  72. gangreen29:
    09/28/2010 at 6:07 pm

    Do you all think there is a lot of cross buying between fans of different idols? I am a big Crystal fan but I still plan on looking into Lee and Casey’s cds and buying them. I do think the season 9 contestants will sell a lot fewer albums, but the one advantage I think might be that there wasn’t as much hard feelings this year, and the top 3 are a lot closer in genre. I know there are a few Adam+Kris fans out there, but judging by how raw it seems some of the emotions were at the time I can’t imagine that people were picking up the album of the supposed “rival”. Just trying to find a small silver lining I guess lol.

    Looks to me like the AI8 fans bought multiple Idols. I think the “fan warring” was highly exaggerated on a few Idol forums. I bought 6 different AI8 albums, I plan to maybe buy Crystal’s album.

    Based on the current Amazon cross buying numbers — AI8 people bought other Idol’s albums — more than anything else.

    Kris Album + Cook, Adam, Danny, Allison, Daughtry, Archie #1, The Script

    Adam buyers bought Cook, Gaga, Allison, Kris, Katy Perry, then Daughtry.

    The only cross buying gap that I can find is Danny + Adam is not on the list either way. I must be the only person who bought both albums.

    Note: I recall last Fall that SuBo was on everyone’s list. She is now gone. But Adam + Kris and Kris + Adam were the top crossbuying relationships in November and December excluding SuBo.

    ETA: Regarding the recession to Idol Sales theory — Job growth and recovery in consumer spending always lag the end of a recession. The technical end of the Great Recession was so soft that it took 1 year to determine that the GNP had actually increased (end of the Recession). So yes, we have technically bottomed out but we have not yet recovered back to 2007 spending level. But the underlying issues with recording music sales are structural not cyclical and even a full recovery is not expected to inspire people top buy more legal music. Without changes to US Piracy Laws that penalize the ISPs for allow music, movies, books and other IP to be distributed freely on the Internet it will continue. (UK has passed this legislation.) But if that door is closed other avenues will be opened — like using offshore ISPs in Rhodesia. IMO the age of the album is ending, Down 42% in 9 years and will be down another 14% this year. They may be able to fix the piracy issue but not stop the format shift.

  73. Do you all think there is a lot of cross buying between fans of different idols?

    Probably.. but not necessarily. Of ALL the idols & I’ve watched every single season – there have only been 2 idols that whose work I’ve purchased (oops make that 3.. I bought Allison because it was deep discounted). Most don’t fit into the genre of music I like. In general, I would consider most of the albums future “coaster” material because they aren’t my cuppa. Now I love the cheesy show and I love watching the idol progress & I love cheering them on, but I just don’t get invested in the idols enough to purchase more than I have. With that said, I have no doubt there are multiple purchasers. I just can’t see how there isn’t.

    ETA: LOL Q3 I almost fit that profile.

  74. I know this is a dumb question, but do all the album pre-sales count (like the Amazon presales) in the first week of sales when the album is released, the debut week?

  75. Thank you for collecting the numbers

    Just some numbers taken from elsewhere. Most numbers are rounded (if they are from Idol Chatter) – Anoop’s number for example was listed in Idol Chatter as IIRC less than 1,000, but it doesn’t really make much difference to the larger picture by putting it down as 1,000.

    I’m not really sure if Season 7 is the anomalous one. Season 6 tour didn’t do well (although still a lot better than Season 9), suggesting that there weren’t a lot of fans for the idols that season, and that translated to relatively low sales. I still think it’s Season 8 that’s the odd one out, the tour did very well, but the idols sold relatively poorly. As I said, I think it’s the wider spread of fans for that season, also that because of the polarising nature of that season’s contestants, their fan base are more rabid/intense due to the rivalry. So although there may be a bit fewer total number of fans compared to Season 7, those that there are are more likely to pay to go to see their idols.

    The others you mentioned like Carly, Michael, and Brooke were indie releases. Compare their sales to other indie releases from S8 (Anoop, Michael Sarver, etc) and their sales actually look pretty good .

    Quite true, I haven’t really considered that. One thing you have to say though is that I don’t think they would have sold a lot more on major label. Brooke White actually did the clever thing of having a special deal with iTunes and her first week sales were all digital downloads, so that number is actually pretty good. The only person I would say to have suffered a bit might be Michael Johns, there seemed to be problem finding his album in shops.

    Carly I think is on a major label, but even if not, I think those who bought her album would be largely those interested in Evanescence rather than from her Idol fan base which I suspect is tiny.

  76. do all the album pre-sales count (like the Amazon presales) in the first week of sales when the album is released, the debut week?

    Yes. And Subo already is tracking to debut at #1 on presales. (Can someone please knock her off!)

    Also Amazon just updated Lee’s debut album album to $13.99 MSRP $11.99 sale price. So MSRP must be $13.99.

    And it is up to #183 on the album chart up from #408 last hour.

    ETA: That Examiner article is one day off — Fever was #1 on Singapore 91.3 Top 30 chart yesterday, it is #2 today which is actually 10/29/10 in Singapore.

  77. Season 6 tour didn’t do well (although still a lot better than Season 9), suggesting that there weren’t a lot of fans for the idols that season,

    Sure, that’s a variable I haven’t looked at stats for, fans, and voting, and such- but what it says to me is that Season 6 was happening in the beginnings of an 18 month recession, which is going to affect tour sales, album sales etc…and that, there are facts for – after the fact. ;)

    That’s what makes Season 7 an anomaly – same recession that struck 6 and 8 was happening- right in the middle – the lowest point – different results. IMO, of course.

  78. It is going to be very, very interesting to see if the Davids can come anywhere close to their initial album sales when and if they release album #2 (and I don’t count a Christmas album). I will be flabbergasted if Archie sells more than 60,000 his first week and I think his album won’t even hit the gold standard. Cook may fare better but if he doesn’t become more “visible” over the next few months he may just fall to the wayside (too many similar AI winners for him to “keep” his fandom intact when he isn’t out and about.

    I think that the initial sales for the Davids was warranted…they put out a good year on AI, they rounded up the audience for the tour, and they were fun and interesting just after AI completed. Now the tale of the tape will be interesting to see if either one have been able to keep and gather in new fans. I have my doubts.

    And, as an aside, I was in Arizona during this current depression and I can state that the big slide didn’t occur until the spring of 2009…long after the Season 7 Idols had their initial selling spree. By the fall of 2009 when the Season 8 Idols were selling the unemployment in Arizona was at its height and house prices had dropped by 50%.

  79. IIHY
    Adds for the week

    2 Top40 (1 unmonitored)

    * WAPE-FM Pub 25 Top 40 Jacksonville 19/RMG Cox Radio Inc 46
    KIXY-FM Act 0 Top 40 San Angelo, TX 19/RMG Foster Communications 289

    8 HAC (1 unmonitored)

    WRVE-FM Pub 0 Hot AC Albany, NY 19/RMG Clear Channel Communications 63
    * WOMX-FM Pub 18 Hot AC Orlando 19/RMG CBS Radio 34
    * WBMX-FM Pub 20 Hot AC Boston 19/RMG CBS Radio 10
    WMRV-FM Act 0 Hot AC Binghamton, NY 19/RMG Clear Channel Communications 183
    KFYV-FM Pub 2 Hot AC Oxnard-Ventura, CA 19/RMG Gold Coast Broadcasting Company 118
    * WTMX-FM Pub 12 Hot AC Chicago 19/RMG Bonneville International Corporation 3
    * WINK-FM Pub 9 Hot AC Ft. Myers 19/RMG Ft Myers Broadcasting Company 62
    * KIMN-FM Pub 9 Hot AC Denver 19/RMG Wilks Broadcasting LLC 20

    WWFM
    Adds this week
    1 AC

  80. Do you all think there is a lot of cross buying between fans of different idols?

    Probably.. but not necessarily. Of ALL the idols & I’ve watched every single season – there have only been 2 idols that whose work I’ve purchased (oops make that 3

    I am with you on this. I only buy music that I personally like and certainly don’t buy just because someone else recommend it, that includes Adam. I’ve watched all 9 seasons and I have bought Ruben(liked his performances on Idol and he was from Bama), Fantasia(Loved her on Idol, especially Summertime), Daughtry(bought both albums), Cook(he was the absolute best) and Adam(truly one of a kind).

  81. Moderated radio adds for Idol alumni this week:
    19 – Fantasia – I’m Doin’ Me (51)
    16 – Daughtry – September (221)
    9 – Carrie Underwood – Mama’s Song (149)
    8 – Adam Lambert – If I Had You (245)
    1 – Adam Lambert – Whataya Want from Me (360)
    1 – Anoop Desai – All Is Fair (1)
    1 – Carrie Underwood – Undo It (166)

  82. Tess:
    09/28/2010 at 7:46 pm
    It is going to be very, very interesting to see if the Davids can come anywhere close to their initial album sales when and if they release album #2 (and I don’t count a Christmas album).

    I think Archie is in trouble, he hasn’t released a good single yet. He needs one if he’s going to sell that album. As for Cook, although it crazy how long it’s taking for him to get another single out and then his album. But once it’s released, he’s going to do well.

  83. It is going to be very, very interesting to see if the Davids can come anywhere close to their initial album sales when and if they release album #2

    I can answer that now. LOL. They won’t. Not only has no other idol alum been able to do it, also no one launched from a reality show of any kind, including Making The Band and the X Factor. Kelly was the only one ever to do it, and you could say that was due to the incredible once-in-a-lifetime success of the Breakaway album. Other than than that, the market decline in album sales and the natural burn off of fans who were only there for the TV show will take its toll.

    Now will they do enough to continue to have careers? Perhaps. We’ll see!

  84. Now this is only one way of trying to figure out a person’s support/popularity — and certainly not the most accurate one. But consider this: Lee has just over 50,000 followers on twitter (51,763) — or less than 1/4 than amount that Kris has (212,371). He also has far fewer friends than Kris on Facebook.

    Coming out of the S8 tour, Kris, Adam and Danny all had ~twice the number of people following them on twitter vs. Lee coming out of S9’s tour. From what I remember, Matt Giraud had more followers than Lee, & possibly Anoop. Crystal and Casey coming out of the tour were in Michael Sarver / Megan Joy range, and well below Allison. Not scientific but it is interesting as an indicator of committed fanbases and overall interest in the respective seasons. My guess , based on what we know about the season viewership, voting levels, tour sales, iTunes, online followings, etc. is that Lee’s core fanbase is smaller than any of S8’s top 3, who ran pretty evenly toward the late part of the season.

    I do think it’s bigger than Allison’s anyway, and the fact that he is a male winner with a largely female AI audience will help him to a degree in sales. Putting aside the wildcard of a hot single or random luck, my guess is that Lee will sell less than any of Kris, Adam and Danny from S8, but a couple of notches higher than Allison. I won’t be surprised if he sells only 40-50k copies unless he gets some very high visibility around the time the album comes out (any sign of that? I haven’t heard it.) I agree with the earlier comment that it would be better for the show if he could get at least 50,000. The AI brand normally might help the winner’s CD sell, but the winner brand for AI9 is such a depreciated commodity I have to wonder if that will help him much at all.

    Crystal was my favorite on AI9 (which is to say, not a huge favorite given that the season was disappointing) but reading all the possible label drama and what she’s been doing since the tour ended, I seriously am wondering if she will sell even as many albums as Allison. She might do well to sell as many as someone like Brooke White. (Again, always allowing for a hot single or some other wildcard that would prove me wrong, lol.) I don’t feel confident that Crystal’s core fanbase is even as big as Allison’s. Between Lee and Crystal, my guess is that Crystal could at least have better odds to get some critical love for her album, however.

  85. Gangreen29, I think you are onto something there. I think fan wars and bitter feelings do hurt album sales and I think it affected both the top 2 last year.
    I’m definately buying Lee and Crystal’s albums and will give a serious listen to Casey’s. But I’m not going to guess how any of them will sell till I hear their singles.
    Girlygirl-Lee only got his twitter in June- Kris has had his twitter a lot longer and has had music on the radio ever since he won Idol.
    So of course Kris has more twitter followers, but I don’t know if that correlates to album sales. David Cook has a lot less than Kris (149,117), Jordan has gazillions, and Joss Stone (Lee’s musical crush he hung out with in NY)has 21,648. She has sold 11 million albums.

  86. artemis

    Kris got his twitter in June 2009 — 3 months later he had over 100,000 followers right as the AI S8 tour ended (I remember that being a big deal last fall, both Kris & Danny getting to 100K followers before tour ended). In the same amount of time (3 months from June to Sept) 1 year later, Lee has about 1/2 that number of followers

    Now, I agree with you that this may mean little or nothing in terms of future singles/album sales. But it is interesting, anyway. Crystal’s twitter following, just under 23K, is similar to what Michael Sarver had coming of the S8 tour — so if album/CD sales could be predicted only be twitter stats, she would be in deep trouble. But again, twitter followers do not necessarily corrolate to album sales, so all this may not mean squat. we will just have to wait and see what happens when their albums drop.

  87. It is going to be very, very interesting to see if the Davids can come anywhere close to their initial album sales when and if they release album #2

    I can answer that now. LOL. They won’t.

    Exactly. It’s doubtful that either David will match or exceed the sales of their debut albums, and that’s OK. Archie’s not in any trouble. I think it’s still too early to say that, even with the poor performance of his singles so far. Even if his sophomore album sells as well as Jordin’s, he’ll be fine. For all the gloom and doom talk regarding Jordin’s sales with Battlefield (the album), apparently she has begun work on album #3.

    As for Lee, no way he’s selling 100-150K in his first week. Without a smash hit single, it’s doubtful that his album will outsell Kris or Adam’s. That said, I’m not counting Lee out yet in spite of the lack of “buzz”.

  88. I was in Arizona during this current depression and I can state that the big slide didn’t occur until the spring of 2009…long after the Season 7 Idols had their initial selling spree. By the fall of 2009 when the Season 8 Idols were selling the unemployment in Arizona was at its height and house prices had dropped by 50%.

    Tess, those are not my numbers – they are from The National Bureau of Economic Research – regional differences would have to be factored in to National data. I know West Virginia went under long before New Jersey did – and I sold my house in Jersey just before the real estate market there crashed, mid 2007 – good for Arizona to maintain that long. But apocryphal examples are not national.

    There are too many variables to only point at the economy, I know – but I believe it is a very large factor…certainly to album sales. 115K albums were released in the 2009 Chart Year – only 19 of them sold a million or more units. The Season 7 Albums that were released in November 2008 are counted in that number. David Cook’s album went platinum in sales the first week of March, 2009. That puts the Season 7 Idols within your parameters, and the parameters of the NBER, which was June of 2009.

    We can only wait and see if things are getting better for any but the bigger artists. IMO, of course.

  89. One factor that really wasn’t mentioned here on why it is hard to measure Lee’s potential sales to Kris’ is they are on different labels. Doesn’t RCA have a better track record of promoting albums better than Jive? I’m not at all saying Lee is going to compare to any of the other RCA releases. But label strength and competitive advantage should also be a factor under consideration.

  90. Looking just now at Lee’s album placing on the Amazon pre-sales list – it’s now at #8 Amazon Pre-sale. Hope that’s the same page Q3!

    On the pre-sales – in the week before September 16 (the only week I checked!) they lay consistently between #14 and #24. At the time I thought that decent, seeing there was still 2 months to go to the album release, and the single not out yet!

    ETA Just realised the rankings quoted by Q3 are from the album chart not the pre-sales – my bad – have edited to correct!

  91. Hmmm, that’s interesting, I searched the Amazon album list for Lee DeWyze, sorted by best selling, and it gives me the new album as having sold more than Slumberland or So I’m Told!

    Wonder how many Amazon sold of the 2 pre-idol cd’s?

  92. As for CrystaLee, it’s going to take some pretty impressive material for them to break out post-Idol. It’s too bad that Season 9 was so badly panned, but since they were a part of it, they’ve got a big hole from which to climb out.

    I honestly think that unless you’re an avid fan of Lee’s, you’re not even going to associate Lee with Idol. I believe he’s got just as much chance as any other newly signed artist to sell music. If he has a killer single that generates buzz on its own, then he’ll be fine.

  93. One factor that really wasn’t mentioned here on why it is hard to measure Lee’s potential sales to Kris’ is they are on different labels. Doesn’t RCA have a better track record of promoting albums better than Jive? I’m not at all saying Lee is going to compare to any of the other RCA releases. But label strength and competitive advantage should also be a factor under consideration.

    I can’t see in what way Jive doesn’t promote albums as well as Jive. If anything, they are very good with the first single, creating much needed traction for album sales. For example, considering the song only, not the singer, LLWD is a thousand times more current and radio friendly than Light On, and honestly it’s a miracle that DC did so well with such bad single choices. Light On isn’t a bad song, but should never ever have been a lead single. The other ways of promoting an album, like TV appearances or commercials, are the management job, not the label.
    We’ll see what they come up with for Lee.

  94. what it says to me is that Season 6 was happening in the beginnings of an 18 month recession, which is going to affect tour sales, album sales etc…

    The thing is that ticket prices are much more expensive than CD, but Season 7 and Season 8 tours did equally well, yet somehow the albums sales were poorer for the Season 8 crew (total sales down by 40%). For your argument to work, the one anomalous result would be the Season 7 tour (not album sales) which should be much more successful than Season 8 (because it would be the expensive thing to cut back on).

    Also for those who said the recession hit Season 8 worse would have to explain why something that’s more expensive (the tour) would do better than something that’s cheaper (the albums). It doesn’t compute, as they say. Season 8 is the oddity that needs explaining.

    I could of course be completely off predicting how well Lee might do (the tour for example could have been doing much worse – they might have only sold a third or a quarter of tickets of Season 8 if they hadn’t cut the prices), but using Season 8 as a benchmark for any argument is not correct, because Season 8 is not a typical season.

  95. Also for those who said recession hit Season 8 worse would have to explain why something that’s more expensive (the tour) would do better than something that’s cheaper (the albums). It doesn’t compute, as they say. Season 8 is the oddity that needs explaining.

    I can’t say for sure why the S8 tour did so well, yet the CD sales were not at the S7 levels but I have some ideas. Perhaps families opted to stay home in the summer and do local activies with their kids instead of taking vacations and spending money on airfare and hotels? An AI concert is a family activity first and foremost. There were also quite a few popular contestants in S8 and that I think also helped the tour. There were several fanbases attending the concerts, just like S7.

    I do think the economy impacted the sale of S8 CDs somewhat because I don’t think S8 idols got the impulse buyers. That is, those who see the CD in a store and decide to get it at the last minute. By the winer of 2009, the recession had gone on long enough and many people had depleted their savings or had been laid off. I think people are much more frugal then they were a couple of years ago.

    Here is an interesting article from the Pragmatic Capitalist called “Viewing the Great Recession in Hi Def.” The article states the average consumer wasn’t really impacted until the Fall of 2009.

    http://pragcap.com/viewing-the-great-recession-in-hi-def

  96. Album sales have gone done steadily due to pirating. I think HDD has the % from this year to last year at down about 12%.

    However, albums are relatively cheap and aren’t really that impacted by economic conditions. It’s like buying a lipstick in that buying music is a cheap way to make yourself feel better. Tour tickets would have been way more affected.

    Maybe people liked the S8 folks on the shows but weren’t that into their albums. Or maybe it’s easier to sell thousands of tour tickets to fans that love them than to sell millions of albums to folks who have to like their music. Who knows?

  97. One thing is that I don’t think the tour had been affected by the economy in 2009. The Season 7 tour grossed $29.9 million according to Billboard, Season 8 grossed $30.1 million, season 7 did slightly better on total ticket sales (~10,000 more, but that’s only ~2% difference from season 8), the difference in gross would be due to slightly higher ticket price in Season 8. Yet Season 7 was ranked #24 top tour of 2008 based on gross, but Season 8 was not amongst the top 25 (that year #25 was grossing around $33.65 million, so Season 8 tour probably ranked 26 or 27 in 2009), that means that overall tours were doing well that season.

    I think there might be a delay in the way people decide not to spend money and cutting back when they felt the pinch (perhaps things only look bad when the credit card bills started to become unmanageable), so the actual effect is felt only this year, since a lot of tours seemed to be suffering in 2010. We’ll wait for this year’s year-end tour chart and see if this is indeed happening.

  98. The comparison of Season 7 and Season 8 tour by rank in the annual tour list is skewed by who else was on tour that year. Not sure it means anything. Season 7 and Season 8 both did well.

    I do not know if the Idol Tour results indicate much about CD sales but it does seem to indicate something about future touring success. Season 7 did well, Cook went on to do more headline shows than I can count — many to sellout crowds. Season 8 tour did well, Adam went on to do a headline tour mostly to sellout crowds.

    IMO you need to look at Adam in the context of global sales, not US sales. Well over 30% of his album sales are outside the US, he has spent a lot of time and efforts on international promotion, and we know that the total album sold units passed 1 million by June 2010. But 735K US retail so far is not shabby.

    Album sales are down — and the decline has really started to accelerate with the widespread availability of free digital music in 2006-2007.

    US album sales are down — for the 26-week period beginning Jan.4 and ending July 4, 2010, album sales were down 11% to 154 million from 172.9 million units in the corresponding period last year.

    Overall, U.S. album sales, including track equivalents, fell 8.2% in the first six months of 2010 to 213.7 million. That was down from the 232.8 million in the corresponding period of 2009, according to Nielsen SoundScan.

    Every study says that the cause is piracy, but that the recent downturn in the economy “inspired” more people to steal. It is so easy to get music free. And people are saving wherever they can.

  99. Album sales are down — and the decline has really started to accelerate with the widespread availability of free digital music in 2006-2007.

    I must have been hanging out on the rough end of the net because I thought the widespread availability of free digital music started way back at the beginning of the decade (if not sooner). I’ve never illegally downloaded, but the story of Napster was pretty widespread even in the mainstream press, or so I thought. And that was closed down in 2001 (and really didn’t have much of an effect).

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