HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Oct 20-26

With 70.38% of reports in, Slipknot is headed to number one with an estimated 100K in sales. Slipknot is a heavy metal band out of Des Moines with a look that is perfectly suited for Halloween. This is the second time they have topped the BB200 chart, but this time it will be more definitive. With their previous album in 2008 (“All Hope is Gone”) “LAX” from The Game was originally listed as the number one album by 13 units (unlucky). A recount 12 hours later reversed that Slipknot was number one with 239,516. It was the closest race in SoundScan history. So, second number 2 album, but quite a bit fewer sales.

But who is going to be talking much about Slipknot when Taylor Swift released an album yesterday? Pundits are already predicting an 800K-1M opening for her which will get the ink flowing. Last I checked, she had 7 of the top 10 slots on the Digital singles chart as well. People are going cuckoo for Taylor. Looks like her fans followed her to Pop (where she mostly was these days anyway – “We are Never Getting Back Together” should never, ever, ever have topped the Country charts). But, that’s next week’s news. Let’s return to this week’s news about last week’s albums.

Watch Cooper, Osnes & Munoz Sin...
Watch Cooper, Osnes & Munoz Sing Irving Berlin!

Next up are two rappers, T.I. and LOGIC at second and third. They are both expected to move in the 65K range. Neil Diamond (come on, I know you want to sing “Sweet Caroline”) is 4th with his 18th number one album. Building charts had him at number 2 with 85K in sales, but he has a bit of ground to make up on the final report (HDD numbers cannot be reliably extrapolated). I like how BB phrased it “Diamond will likely be blocked from the No. 1 slot by a slightly harder-edged act: Slipknot.” Ha.

Jason Aldean slides to 5th (he was number 1 two weeks ago), Barbara Streisand has great gams and is holding at 6th, last week’s number 1 is Florida Georgia Line and they are 7th this week. Little Big Town (Country) and Annie Lennox (cool music) are 9th and 10th.

Holding up the number 8th spot is The Sing Off’s Pentatonix. They released an EP just a few weeks ago, but now they are back with their second Christmas album. “That’s Christmas to Me” is expected to sell around 30K and be in the top 10. It will top the Christmas album chart this week provided it is registered in that category (strangely, sometimes clear Christmas albums don’t chart on that chart).

Susan Boyle’s “Hope” pops back up to 16th – what is going on there? Was she on the Home Shopping Channel or PBS? The Voice judges are represented by Maroon 5 at 18th and Blake Shelton at 48th. That Blake album is his previous album “Based on a True Story”. His current album suddenly poofed off the chart. Reporting glitch? It will be there in the end.

CHART DATE: 10/27/2014
LAST UPDATE: 10/27/2014 15:33:09
NOW IN: 70.38%

LW TW artist / album label sales index
— 1 SLIPKNOT .5: THE GRAY CHAPTER 96,016
— 2 T.I. PAPERWORK 58,250
— 3 LOGIC UNDER PRESSURE 53,250
— 4 NEIL DIAMOND MELODY ROAD 38,507
2 5 JASON ALDEAN OLD BOOTS, NEW DIRT 36,684
5 6 BARBRA STREISAND PARTNERS 33,874
1 7 FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE ANYTHING GOES 30,800
— 8 PENTATONIX THAT’S CHRISTMAS TO ME 27,736
— 9 LITTLE BIG TOWN PAIN KILLER 27,023
— 10 ANNIE LENNOX NOSTALGIA 21,034

— 16 SUSAN BOYLE HOPE 13,037

15 18 MAROON 5 V 10,067

— 48 BLAKE SHELTON BASED ON A TRUE STORY 3,086

— 50 COLDPLAY GHOST STORIESE 2,856

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About Kirsten 3046 Articles
Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.

14 Comments

  1. Mediabase – Tuesday update:

    AAA:
    18 16 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Unpack Your Heart 252 245 7 0.481
    +3 Spins
    0 Bullet
    -0.002 AI
    AC:
    53 47 DAUGHTRY Battleships 22 16 6 0.03
    0 Spins
    -2 Bullet
    0 AI
    Country:
    18 14 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Something In The Water 3834 3355 479 29.43
    +97 Spins
    +13 Bullet
    +0.74 AI
    10 16 M. LAMBERT & C. UNDERWOOD Somethin’ Bad 3784 5454 -1670 27.375
    -453 Spins
    -406 Bullet
    -3.21 AI
    17 17 SCOTTY MCCREERY Feelin’ It 3651 3493 158 23.885
    +62 Spins
    +52 Bullet
    +0.759 AI
    20 20 DAVID NAIL Kiss You Tonight 2956 2834 122 20.077
    +16 Spins
    0 Bullet
    +0.287 AI
    34 24 RAELYNN God Made Girls 2384 1583 801 16.969
    +25 Spins
    -56 Bullet
    +0.442 AI
    HAC:
    20 19 DAUGHTRY Battleships 1541 1476 65 6.781
    +13 Spins
    -4 Bullet
    +0.057 AI
    29 23 ELLA HENDERSON Ghost 1103 811 292 4.727
    +35 Spins
    +5 Bullet
    +0.163 AI
    26 27 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Unpack Your Heart 788 856 -68 2.165
    -20 Spins
    -18 Bullet
    -0.066 AI
    44 41 ONE DIRECTION Steal My Girl 363 289 74 2.377
    +7 Spins
    +1 Bullet
    +0.008 AI
    POP:
    20 20 ONE DIRECTION Steal My Girl 4595 4254 341 17.701
    +101 Spins
    -22 Bullet
    +0.329 AI
    41 42 ELLA HENDERSON Ghost 1110 1025 85 3.274
    +7 Spins
    -20 Bullet
    -0.003 AI
    48 47 BEA MILLER Young Blood 687 608 79 1.464
    +1 Spins
    -26 Bullet
    +0.002 AI
    Urban AC:
    13 13 JENNIFER HUDSON It’s Your World f/R. Kelly 663 664 -1 4.748
    -49 Spins
    -51 Bullet
    -0.479 AI
    Canada-Country:
    22 17 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Something In The Water 580 508 72 2.979
    +12 Spins
    +18 Bullet
    +0.107 AI
    25 30 M. LAMBERT & C. UNDERWOOD Somethin’ Bad 395 477 -82 2.114
    -13 Spins
    +4 Bullet
    -0.099 AI
    54 50 DAVID NAIL Kiss You Tonight 119 103 16 0.598
    +6 Spins
    +13 Bullet
    +0.029 AI
    Canada-Hot AC:
    6 6 HEDLEY Heaven In Our Headlights 931 979 -48 5.655
    -11 Spins
    -10 Bullet
    -0.192 AI
    48 34 ONE DIRECTION Steal My Girl 248 106 142 1.695
    +20 Spins
    +1 Bullet
    +0.048 AI
    Canada-Main AC:
    8 6 HEDLEY Heaven In Our Headlights 269 269 0 1.875
    -1 Spins
    0 Bullet
    -0.007 AI
    Canada-Top 40:
    10 12 HEDLEY Heaven In Our Headlights 1050 1143 -93 4.872
    -12 Spins
    -1 Bullet
    -0.052 AI
    37 31 ONE DIRECTION Steal My Girl 492 318 174 2.2
    +26 Spins
    +12 Bullet
    +0.116 AI
    45 43 ELLA HENDERSON Ghost 226 227 -1 1.193
    -2 Spins
    +4 Bullet
    +0.048 AI
    Christian AC:
    6 6 DANNY GOKEY Hope In Front Of Me 1221 1227 -6 5.947
    -7 Spins
    0 Bullet
    -0.045 AI
    10 9 COLTON DIXON More Of You 882 861 21 4.057
    +6 Spins
    +2 Bullet
    +0.044 AI
    41 39 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Something In The Water 112 91 21 0.602
    -2 Spins
    -9 Bullet
    -0.005 AI

  2. 10/28/2014 – Itunes Top 1500 Singles and Albums (from LivePopBars)

    Singles:
    19. One Direction – Steal My Girl
    39. Carrie Underwood – Something in the Water
    58. Ella Henderson – Ghost
    109. Miranda Lambert – Somethin’ Bad (with Carrie Underwood) [Duet Version]
    111. Jessie Pitts – Your Song (The Voice Performance)
    112. RaeLynn – God Made Girls
    146. Luke Wade – Rich Girl (The Voice Performance)
    148. Scotty McCreery – Feelin’ It
    149. James David Carter – You’ve Got a Friend (The Voice Performance)
    180. Fifth Harmony – BO$$
    188. Melanie Martinez – Carousel
    232. One Direction – Story of My Life
    239. David Nail – Kiss You Tonight
    249. Melanie Martinez – Dollhouse
    259. Damien – How Do I Live (The Voice Performance)
    271. Taylor Phelan – Rather Be (The Voice Performance)
    320. Bea Miller – Young Blood
    351. Ethan Butler & Matt McAndrew – Yellow (The Voice Performance)
    386. DaNica Shirey – Saving All My Love For You (The Voice Performance)
    409. One Direction – You & I
    429. Emblem3 – Obsessed
    461. Daughtry – Battleships
    471. G.R.L. – Ugly Heart
    472. One Direction – What Makes You Beautiful
    530. Phillip Phillips – Gone, Gone, Gone
    544. The Swon Brothers – Later On
    555. Phillip Phillips – Home
    570. Alex & Sierra – Little Do You Know
    586. Danny Gokey – Hope in Front of Me
    612. Emblem3 – Forever Together
    615. Taylor Phelan – Sweater Weather (The Voice Performance)
    618. Carrie Underwood – Blown Away
    644. Bethany Mota – Need You Right Now (feat. Mike Tompkins)
    670. Carrie Underwood – How Great Thou Art
    675. Kelly Clarkson – Stronger (What Doesn’t Kill You)
    683. Carly Rae Jepsen – Call Me Maybe
    693. Colton Dixon – More of You
    705. Jacquie Lee – Broken Ones
    716. Daughtry – Waiting for Superman
    742. David Nail – Whatever She’s Got
    803. Scotty McCreery – See You Tonight
    826. Luke Wade & Griffin – Maybe I’m Amazed (The Voice Performance)
    861. James David Carter – Nobody Knows (The Voice Performance)
    948. Carrie Underwood – Before He Cheats
    952. Mandisa – Overcomer
    1006. Taylor Phelan & Jordy Searcy – Breakeven (The Voice Performance)
    1076. Carly Rae Jepsen – Call Me Maybe
    1091. Pentatonix – White Winter Hymnal
    1123. Emblem3 – Don’t Know Her Name
    1183. Luke Wade – That’s How Strong My Love Is (The Voice Performance)
    1251. DaNica Shirey & Toia Jones – Halo (The Voice Performance)
    1254. Emblem3 – Heavy
    1273. Carrie Underwood – See You Again
    1319. Phillip Phillips – Raging Fire
    1330. Carrie Underwood – Jesus, Take the Wheel
    1346. Casey James – Fall Apart
    1420. Fifth Harmony – Miss Movin’ On
    1422. Taylor John Williams & Amanda Lee Peers – Jolene (The Voice Performance)
    1489. Phillip Phillips – Unpack Your Heart

    Albums:
    7. Emblem3 – Forever Together – EP
    24. One Direction – FOUR (Deluxe Version)
    28. Pentatonix – That’s Christmas To Me
    58. Home Free – Full of Cheer (Deluxe Version)
    115. Pentatonix – PTX, Vol. III
    142. Alex & Sierra – It’s About Us
    262. Melanie Martinez – Dollhouse – EP
    278. One Direction – Midnight Memories (Deluxe Edition)
    304. Pentatonix – PTXmas (Deluxe Edition)
    321. One Direction – FOUR
    344. Jacquie Lee – Broken Ones – EP
    345. The Swon Brothers – The Swon Brothers
    384. Carrie Underwood – Blown Away
    425. Bea Miller – Young Blood – EP
    436. Pentatonix – PTX, Vol. II
    519. Pentatonix – PTX, Vol. 1
    579. Fifth Harmony – Reflection (Deluxe)
    590. One Direction – Up All Night (Deluxe Version)
    617. Avicii – True
    691. One Direction – Take Me Home (Yearbook Edition)
    747. Jennifer Hudson – JHUD
    806. Daughtry – Baptized (Deluxe Version)
    810. David Nail – I’m a Fire
    847. Phillip Phillips – Behind the Light (Deluxe Version)
    902. Scotty McCreery – See You Tonight
    961. Phillip Phillips – The World From the Side of the Moon (Deluxe Version)
    977. Various Artists – NOW That’s What I Call Country, Vol. 7
    982. Emblem3 – Songs from the Couch, Vol. 1
    996. Daughtry – Daughtry
    1076. Kelly Clarkson – Breakaway
    1100. Fifth Harmony – Better Together – EP
    1127. Home Free – Crazy Life
    1329. Colton Dixon – Anchor
    1348. Tessanne Chin – Count On My Love
    1371. Carrie Underwood – Some Hearts
    1383. Kelly Clarkson – Wrapped In Red
    1483. Taylor Phelan & The Canes – Cupid and the Atomic Bomb (Exhibit B) – EP

  3. Hope is Susan Boyle’s new album. She has certainly lost her luster, but she still sells fairly well and album of cover songs is pretty cheap to make

  4. Ironically, in light of Taylor’s new gigantic pop album, Slipknot has a song on their new album called ‘Killpop’, aimed at pop music and the whole music industry in general.

    In a recent interview on Octane, Corey Taylor talked about the meaning behind the song, saying the “she” in the lyrics is referring to the music industry and his feelings about it. (It’s one of my favorites tracks).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtZwvGh3rLc

  5. From HDD:

    SWIFTLY MAKING HISTORY: Taylor Swift will become the only artist to sell more than 1 million albums in a single week on three separate occasions—not to mention on three consecutive releases. We can now comfortably project 1989 will pass the million mark in its first week of release. 2012’s Red opened with 1.2m, while 2010’s Speak Now opened with 1.05m. She’s also currently running the iTunes table and has “Shake It Off” #1 at Pop radio. Oh, and she was on Good Morning America this morning, announcing she’s been made a “Welcome Ambassador” for NYC, among other things. So … how’s your week going? (10/28a)

  6. Congrats to Taylor. Opening 1m with a country album twice and now with pop. Not a fan but this is impressive.

  7. Reporting from Billboard Country Update and Country Aircheck:

    There were 5 recurrents at Billboard: Luke Bryan’s Roller Coaster out of the t10, Rascal Flatts’s Payback and Garth Brooks’s People Loving People out of the t25, John King’s Tonight Tonight out of the t40, and Justin Moore’s cover of Home Sweet Home out of the t55. I didn’t predict the Flatts recurrency because they were still bulleted on the last chart (though the song was struggling) and it wasn’t clear that their song would start dropping. Same with John King’s song. There were 3 Aircheck/Mediabase recurrents/dropoffs: Luke’s single out of the t10, the Swon Brothers’s Later On out of the t25, and Justin Moore’s cover out of the t50.

    This coming week, the Billboard housecleaning should continue with the Brantley Gilbert brodown Small Town Throwdown and Chase Rice’s Ready Set Roll going recurrent out of the t10. Florida Georgia Line’s Dirt is also likely to go recurrent by falling out of the t10 in spins (and maybe AIs too), for a total of 3 recurrents. At Aircheck/Mediabase, Florida Georgia Line’s Dirt will go recurrent out of the t10, the Miranda/Carrie duet Somethin Bad will go recurrent out of the t15, Garth Brooks’s People Loving People will go recurrent out of the t25, and John King’s Tonight Tonight will go recurrent out of the t45 for a total of 4 recurrents.

    Carrie’s Something In The Water had another strong week at Billboard gaining 4.305 million AIs and moving up 3 spots to #14 Billboard in its 4th week. SITW is obviously doing great so far and it’s also benefiting from the chart housecleaning in front. SITW closed to 917k behind Tim McGraw’s Shotgun Rider by outgaining it by 363k – Shotgun Rider is selling and gaining very well so I’m not expecting SITW to pass this week – more likely, SITW will follow SR up. SITW also closed to 1.683 million AIs behind Parmalee’s Close Your Eyes by outgaining it by 3.662 million AIs, so unless Parmalee picks up t10 conversions this week, odds are SITW will pass. SITW also closed to 2.346 million AIs behind Big & Rich’s Look At You by outgaining it by 2.555 million AIs – so at the current rate it could be close between the 2 songs this week. Depending on how fast FGL’s Dirt drops, SITW may only need to pass 1 song in front of it to make t10 this week. I think it will do that, and finish the week at #9 or #10.

    At Aircheck/Mediabase, SITW had a strong week gaining 1790 points and moving up 2 spots to #16. SITW closed to 149 points behind Brad Paisley’s Perfect Storm by outgaining it by 531 points. The trend line points to SITW passing Brad’s single this week but it could be close. Chase Rice’s Ready Set Roll is on its way down and started the week 4,745 points ahead, so if it slightly accelerates its fall and SITW has a comparable week, RSR could drop below. SITW closed to 768 points behind Tim McGraw’s Shotgun Rider by outgaining it by 140 points so it’s not likely SITW will pass it (at least not this week, and like I said above my guess is SITW will follow Tim’s song up the charts). SITW also closed to 1212 points behind Parmalee’s single by outgaining it by 1304 points, so there’s a chance SITW could pass them this week. So look for SITW to finish the week between #11 and #14 (most likely #12 or #13).

    Scotty’s Feelin It had a solid week at Billboard gaining 1.049 million AIs and moving up a spot to #15 Billboard in its 29th week. Kenny Chesney’s Til It’s Gone closed to 1.265 million AIs behind by outgaining FI by 2.257 million AIs – odds are TIG will pass this week though this morning’s MB update shows FI possibly putting up a fight. There are no other likely passers so look for FI to finish the week up 2-3 spots to either #12 or #13. T10 watch can begin but unless Big & Rich and Parmalee fizzle out this week or next week I think it’ll take a few weeks.

    At Aircheck/Mediabase, FI had an OK week gaining 349 points and holding at #17. Kenny Chesney’s Til It’s Gone closed to 1774 points behind FI by outgaining it 1102 points. The trend favors FI staying ahead this week unless TIG picks up the pace, and there are no other likely passers. Chase Rice’s dropping Ready Set Roll starts the wek 5,844 points ahead and would have to seriously accelerate its decline to drop below FI this week – I’m guessing it won’t. So look for FI to finish the week up 2 spots to #15.

    David Nail’s Kiss You Tonight (cowritten by David Cook) had a solid week gaining 837k AIs though it dropped a spot to #21 in its 33rd week charting. An On The Verged RaeLynn closed to 1.674 million AIs behind by outgaining KYT by 4.386 million AIs, so look for her single to pass this week. There are no other likely passers so look for KYT to finish the week up a couple spots to #19.

    At Aircheck/Mediabase, KYT had a meh week gaining 235 points and holding at #20. Eric Church’s Talladega closed to 673 points behind by outgaining KYT by 1417 points and will pass this week. It’s possible that an On The Verged RaeLynn, who starts the week 1786 points behind after outgaining KYT by 1990 points, could pass. There are no other likely passers this week so look for KYT to finish the week at either #19 or #20.

    RaeLynn’s God Made Girls had an even bigger week than I expected, gaining 5.223 million AIs thanks to the On The Verge program, and shooting up 10 spots to #22 in its 17th week. On The Verge’s fasttracking will continue this week, though it may slow down a little. I still expect GMG to pass David Nail’s Kiss You Tonight and maybe previous On The Verge beneficiary Chase Bryant’s Take It On Back – GMG closed to 2.315 million AIs behind Chase’s song by outgaining it by 4.590 million AIs. So look for GMG to finish the week in the t20, at either #17 or #18.

    At Aircheck/Mediabase, GMG rode On The Verge to a 2,225 point gain and shot up 8 spots to #26. Another week like this one and GMG could move up to #19. I’m guessing week 2 of On The Verge treatment will be a little lighter and GMG will finish the week up between 1200 and 1400 points and up 5 spots to #21. But GMG outperformed my expectations this past week so a move up to #19 is quite possible.

    Trisha Yearwood’s PrizeFighter featuring Kelly had a flat week at Billboard losing 5k AIs and moving up a spot to #43. Josh Turner’s Lay Low closed to 371k behind by outgaining PF by 410k so that could pass this week. I’m guessing Luke Bryan’s new single I See You, Jason Aldean’s new single Just Gettin’ Started, and Billy Currington’s new lead single Don’t It (which just went for adds this week) are passing threats. So look for PF to finish the week anywhere between #40 and #44.

    At Aircheck/Mediabase, PF returned to the charts at #50 with a gain of 34 points. The 4 recurrents in front will help PF to stay on the charts. Lady Antebellum’s Freestyle is already ahead, but I think PF should be good to move up a spot or 2 to #48 or #49 this week.

    Idol related ads: Billboard Country Update and Country Aircheck both lead with loving recaps of the Country Music Hall Of Fame induction ceremony, where Mac Wiseman, Ronnie Milsap, and the late songwriter Hank Cochran were inducted in the veteran, modern performer, and non-performer (songwriter) categories, respectively.

    In its chart recap, Billboard Country Update notes RaeLynn’s God Made Girls has sold 127k downloads and that RaeLynn “is expected to release her first full-length album before the end of the year.” Really? When? I got to believe that if this is true, it’s because The Voice is going to have her back to perform.

    Aircheck also has a feature story in which Nashville co-executive producer and Opry Entertainment Grou EVP Steve Buchanan talks about the integration of real life Nashville/Music Row personalities and organizations into the show. That includes featuring charitable organizations like TJ Martell Foundation and W.O.Smith School, plus radio personalities like Shawn Parr (now of Cumulus’s Nash Nights), Blair Garner (of America’s Morning Show, Cumulus’s flagship morning show), Clear Channel’s Bobby Bones, Country Aircheck/Country Countdown USA’s Lon Helton, and CMA-winning WUSY/Chattanooga’s Gator Harrison.

  8. CHART DATE: 10/27/2014
    LAST UPDATE: 10/28/2014 12:01:00
    NOW IN: FINAL

    LW TW artist / album label sales index % change

    — 1 SLIPKNOT ROADRUNNER 126,679 — .5: THE GRAY CHAPTER
    — 2 NEIL DIAMOND CAPITOL 82,280 — MELODY ROAD
    — 3 T.I. GRAND HUSTLE/COLUMBIA 74,197 — PAPERWORK
    — 4 LOGIC DEF JAM 71,511 — UNDER PRESSURE
    1 5 FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE REPUBLIC NASHVILLE 59,075 -71% ANYTHING GOES
    2 6 JASON ALDEAN BROKEN BOW 55,888 -39% OLD BOOTS, NEW DIRT
    5 7 BARBRA STREISAND COLUMBIA 40,503 -1% PARTNERS
    — 8 LITTLE BIG TOWN CAPITOL NASHVILLE 40,305 — PAIN KILLER
    — 9 PENTATONIX RCA 32,958 — THAT’S CHRISTMAS TO ME
    — 10 ANNIE LENNOX BLUE NOTE 27,829 — NOSTALGIA
    — 16 SUSAN BOYLE SYCO/COLUMBIA 18,659 — HOPE
    15 17 MAROON 5 222/INTERSCOPE 16,271 -12% V
    — 26 BLAKE SHELTON WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 11,047 — BASED ON A TRUE STORY
    30 34 NOW 51 NOW 8,677 -5% VARIOUS ARTISTS

  9. Monitored Adds:
    Top 40
    Bea Miller (Young Blood) – 3
    Fifth Harmony (Sledgehammer) – 2
    One Direction (Steal My Girl) – 2
    Canada Country
    RaeLynn (God Made Girls) – 2
    Carrie Underwood (Something In The Water) – 1
    Scotty McCreery (Feelin’ It) – 1
    Canada HAC
    One Direction (Steal My Girl) – 7
    Daughtry (Battleships) – 1
    Ella Henderson (Ghost) – 1
    Hedley (Pocket Full Of Dreams) – 1
    Canada Main AC
    Demi Lovato f. Cher Lloyd (Really Don’t Care) – 1
    One Direction (Steal My Girl) – 1
    Canada Top 40
    One Direction (Steal My Girl) – 4

  10. She’s starting the U.S. part of her world tour tomorrow, and she’s selling very well.

  11. Chart News @chartnews · 12s 12 seconds ago
    Billboard 200: #8 @BarbraStreisand, Partners 40,000 (526,000 total).

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