HDD – Album Sales Prediction : May 4-10

With 74.15% of reports in, Mumford and Sons are on their way to their second number one album. Their previous album, “Babel” topped the charts for 5 non-consecutive weeks (3 weeks on release and 2 after their big wins at the Grammys). “Wilder” is expected to open in the range of 250K in sales with around 260-280K on the combined chart. That’s far below the opening of “Babel” (600K), but still an impressive opening since they aren’t topping the mainstream charts right now. “Believe”, their debut single from this album, did top the AAA charts.

Josh Groban is predicted to hold strong in his second week. He was second last week with 149K in album sales and will remain in that slot this week with around 100K. That’s only a 33% drop which is rare these days for a second week drop. Everything about Josh’s career defies typical. He’s taken the rule book, ripped it up and burnt it. Just enjoy the ride. Josh’s second week strength could be partially attributable to it being Mother’s Day on Sunday (lots of Moms like Josh), but also because his fans don’t seem to rush out on Tuesday morning the first week to buy the album. They are patient and pick it up next time they are in the stores. The album of Broadway hits features a duet with Kelly Clarkson.

NOW 54 was released last week. Now is the industry’s response to K-Tel. The big labels took long enough, but they now cooperate with each other so they can keep more of the compilation album money for themselves. This collection features “Sugar” by Maroon 5 (featuring Voice Judge Adam Levine), “Nobody Love” by Idol Auditioner Tori Kelly, “Heartbeat Song” by Idol winner Kelly Clarkson and “Night Changes” by X-factorers One Direction. It should sell enough albums to stay third on both the albums and combined chart.

Tech N9ne (guess the genre! Nope, not Polka) is 4th in sales, but will have to fend of last week’s album topper from the Zac Brown Band to retain that on the combined. The Fifty Shades of Grey Soundtrack is 6th, My Morning Jacket (I’m guessing folk…but wiki tells me psychedelic/alt/roots/indie/country/southern rock) is debuting in 7th, Taylor Swift is 8th, Chris Stapleton (plays the piano? Nope, Country) is debuting at 9th and Sam Smith rounds out the top 10.

Reality singers are represented on the chart by Miranda Lambert (Nashville Star) at 43 and Carrie Underwood at 43. Now 53 features One Direction and is at 24.

Now, I don’t know why, but NOW #1s is back on the chart (what is this NOW #1s crap? I thought all 54 of my NOW albums were packed with hits. Now I have to by another NOW to get the true hits? ROBBED!). The album was originally released in 2006 (not very NOW now is it?) features Idol Judge JLo. Voice Judges Adam Levine and Blake Shelton show up at 19th and 48th respectively.

Chart Date: 05/12/2015
Last Updated: 05/11/2015 18:44:17
Status: Building 74.15%

LW TW Artist / Album Label Sales Index

— 1 MUMFORD & SONS WILDER MIND GLASSNOTE 204,252
2 2 JOSH GROBAN STAGES REPRISE 79,540
— 3 NOW 54 VARIOUS ARTISTS NOW 66,031
— 4 TECH N9NE SPECIAL EFFECTS STRANGE MUSIC 48,895
1 5 ZAC BROWN BAND JEKYLL + HYDE SOUTHERN GROUND/VARVATOS/BMLG/REPUBLIC 45,247
9 6 FIFTY SHADES OF GREY SOUNDTRACK REPUBLIC 27,032
— 7 MY MORNING JACKET THE WATERFALL CAPITOL 22,007
5 8 TAYLOR SWIFT 1989 BIG MACHINE 21,422
— 9 CHRIS STAPLETON TRAVELLER MERCURY NASHVILLE 19,353
7 10 SAM SMITH IN THE LONELY HOUR CAPITOL 19,050
……
— 17 NOW #1S VARIOUS ARTISTS NOW 12,247
.
22 19 MAROON 5 V 222/INTERSCOPE 10,482
..
16 22 EMPIRE CAST SOUNDTRACK, SEASON 1 TWENTIETH CENTURY FOX/COLUMBIA 9,871
.
20 24 NOW 53 VARIOUS ARTISTS NOW/LEGACY 7,945
………………
46 43 MIRANDA LAMBERT PLATINUM RCA NASHVILLE 4,508

— 47 CARRIE UNDERWOOD GREATEST HITS: DECADE #1 19/ARISTA NASHVILLE 3,956
— 48 BLAKE SHELTON BRINGING BACK THE SUNSHINE WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 3,890

Hits Daily Double

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Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.