HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Jan 12-18

With yesterday being a holiday, we did not receive any HDD estimates. Meghan Trainor is expected to have the biggest release and sales of the week. It is expected to also top the BB200 because Taylor’s singles cannot make up the gap. Meghan’s new release has the same name as her previous EP release. One would think that would hurt sales, but it does not appear to have done much damage. “Title” started the week with an estimated 150K in sales based on strong pre-sales and ended the week with predictions in the 180K range. That means it is selling better than the usual models would predict. Could it continue to exceed those models through the weekend? “Title” is expected to sell around 180K with 215-225K once TEAs/SEAs are included.

Meanwhile, there are two other releases which should debut in the top 10. First up is the ever-popular Kidz Bop. This will be the 27th album for the franchise and their 20th top 10 debut. They are expected to sell in the 70K range while featuring songs originally from both Meghan and Taylor. People just can’t get enough of those Kidz, but I doubt they will be racking up a lot of TEAs/SEAs. Meanwhile, Mark Ronson is doing the opposite – not a lot of sales, but a lot of TEAs & SEAs. The album itself is expected to sell 25K, but the album features his monster hit with Bruno Mars currently topping the Hot 100 chart. “Uptown Funk” has absolutely blown up this year with it gaining strong on a variety of radio formats (+2926 spins on Pop, +1000 HAC, +97 AC, +998 RHY) and dominating download sales. It’s streams, on-demand and youtube views are all extremely healthy.

One Direction is expected in the top 15 on the BB200 chart, but not on the sales chart. Here is what HDD was predicting on the weekend

Sales:
* Meghan Trainor (Epic) 180-190k
Taylor Swift (Big Machine) 80-85k
* Kidz Bop (Razor & Tie) 70-75k
Ed Sheeran (Atlantic) 30-35k
Sam Smith (Capitol) 25-28k
Nicki Minaj (YMCMB/Republic) 25-28k
J. Cole (Roc Nation/Columbia) 24-27k
* Jazmine Sullivan (RCA) 24-27k
* Mark Ronson (RCA) 24-27k
Guardians of the Galaxy: Awesome Mix, Vol. 1 (Hollywood) 20-22k
* Ella Henderson (SYCO/Columbia) 19-21k
Hozier (Columbia) 16-18k
Sam Hunt (MCA Nashville) 15-17k
Into The Woods (Walt Disney) 13-15k
Garth Brooks (Pearl/RCA Nashville) 12-14k

SPS:
* Meghan Trainor (Epic) 215-225k
Taylor Swift (Big Machine) 120-125k
* Kidz Bop Kids (Razor & Tie) 70-75k
Ed Sheeran (Atlantic) 70-75k
* Mark Ronson (RCA) 65-70k
Sam Smith (Capitol) 50-55k
Nicki Minaj (YMCMB/Republic) 50-55k
Hozier (Columbia) 40-45k
J. Cole (Roc Nation/Columbia) 35-40k
* Jazmine Sullivan (RCA) 27-30k
* Ella Henderson (SYCO/Columbia) 25-28k
Sam Hunt (MCA Nashville) 24-27k
One Direction (SYCO/Columbia) 24-27k
Ariana Grande (Republic) 21-24k
Rae Sremmurd (Interscope) 20-22k
Guardians of the Galaxy: Awesome Mix, Vol. 1 (Hollywood) 19-21k
Carrie Underwood (19/Arista Nashville) 18-20k
Sia (Monkey Puzzle/RCA) 18-20k


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Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.