HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Feb 9-15

With 43.09% of reports in, I guess it’s not too late. All week long, the pundits had been predicting that the naughty “Fifty Shades of Grey” movie would not only top the box-office (which it did – $94.4M for the long-weekend), but that it would also top the Album charts with an impressive 165-175K in sales and 195-210K on the combined charts. Not all Soundtracks are successful, but it seems if you are a Disney/Marvel related movie or a movie based on a book that started life as fan-fiction, your odds are a little better. That was until a former Degrassi kid decided to release a surprise album late Thursday night.

Drake started life as Aubrey Drake Graham from Toronto. On “Degrassi – The Next Generation”, he played popular Jimmy Brooks who was shot in the back and the character spent the rest of the series in a wheelchair. His character on the show actually pursued a career in music and the actor did as well starting with mixed tapes. He is now a staple of the Rap genre and felt comfortable releasing “If You’re Reading This, It’s Not Too Late” at the end of a sales week, with no singles and no advance promo. Looks like it worked out for him as it did for Beyonce before him – he is predicted to sell 500K (she released during the busy Christmas sales season). Even with just four days in sales, Drake could have the second biggest opening in the past year (the biggest, of course, belonging to Taylor). Needless to say, he will top both the sales and combined charts. This will be Drake’s fourth number one and the biggest opening for a rap album since 2013.

Mr. Grey will have to settle for second best.

Interestingly, Republic has the top two albums so they decided to steal their own thunder.

Now 53, featuring current hits and One Direction’s “Night Changes”, will hold down third on the sales chart and drop to 6 on the combined. Sam Smith had a lot of success in the Grammys, so that and another hit song has him retaining 4th. Beck rides the success of his AOTY award to 5th (he returned to the album charts at 21 last week based on just a few hours of sales). What is this? Taylor is sitting way back in 6th. That’s the lowest she’s been since the album released. She’ll be back next week. That album is a machine. 2015 Grammy Nominees featuring the hits of yester-year is 7th, but rises to fifth based on combined sales. Ed Sheeran has had a very good week on the streaming and download charts after his performance on the Grammys and Ellen – can he take the top of the Hot 100 from Mark & Bruno? He is down at 8th for straight album sales right now, but is expected to finish 4th on both final charts. Meghan Trainor won as many awards as Ed did at the Grammys (their time will come some day), but her album continues to sell well. Kidz Bop (hey, at least their songs are current) continues to do their thing at 10th (they won’t sell a lot of singles).

Reality singing competitors come in at 19th (Carrie Underwood’s “Greatest Hits: Decade #1), 27th (One Direction’s “4”), and 46th (Fifth Harmony’s “Reflection” down from 3rd in its first week). Now 52 is at 24th and features X-Factor US winners Alex and Sierra. The judges are there at 21st (Maroon V’s “5”) and 43rd (Blake Shelton’s “Back in the Sunshine”

Chart Date: 02/17/2015
Last Updated: 02/16/2015 20:48:18
Status: Building 43.09%

LW TW Artist / Album Label Sales Index
— 1 DRAKE IF YOU’RE READING THIS, IT’S TOO LATE YMCMB/REPUBLIC 234,203
— 2 FIFTY SHADES OF GREY SOUNDTRACK REPUBLIC 72,650
1 3 NOW 53 VARIOUS ARTISTS NOW/LEGACY 55,653
4 4 SAM SMITH IN THE LONELY HOUR CAPITOL 51,005
21 5 BECK MORNING PHASE CAPITOL 50,340
2 6 TAYLOR SWIFT 1989 BIG MACHINE 46,140
9 7 2015 GRAMMY NOMINEES VARIOUS ARTISTS RCA 43,170
5 8 ED SHEERAN X ATLANTIC 42,099
8 9 MEGHAN TRAINOR TITLE EPIC 21,637
11 10 KIDZ BOP KIDS KIDZ BOP 27 RAZOR & TIE 15,251

31 19 CARRIE UNDERWOOD GREATEST HITS: DECADE #1 19/ARISTA NASHVILLE 6,842

19 21 MAROON 5 V 222/INTERSCOPE 6,567

34 24 NOW 52 VARIOUS ARTISTS NOW 5,722

32 27 ONE DIRECTION FOUR SYCO/COLUMBIA 4,614

— 43 BLAKE SHELTON BRINGING BACK THE SUNSHINE WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 2,914

3 46 FIFTH HARMONY REFLECTION EPIC 2,667

— 50 BLACKBERRY SMOKE HOLDING ALL THE ROSES ROUNDER 2,409

Hits Daily Double

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Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.