HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Dec 26-Jan 1

Again, this week, we have no Monday predictions to mull over due to the holidays. HDD was only prepared to estimate last week that Adele would be number 1 (for the 14th non-consecutive week with about 100K in sales), LFMAO might get their first top 10 (in its 28th week) and Buble would fall out of the top 10 since Christmas is over.

Billboard was more bold predicting the full top 10. They have Adele selling 150K which is pretty impressive for the week after Christmas. Last year, during the same week, the top 2 albums sold 77K (Taylor Swift – down 72%) and 63K (Eminem – down 54%). They predict that LFMAO might sell between 50-70K for 5th place indicating that this week will see some big drops, but the top 10 will likely be healthier than last year. Of course, they also think that Sunday was January 2nd, so they may have had too much eggnog. Here is who they are predicting to be the top 10:

1 2 Adele “21” – 150K
2 5 Drake “Take Care”
3 3 Young Jeezy “TM:103 Hustlerz Ambition”
4 6 Lady Antebellum “Own the Night”
5 16 LMFAO “Sorry for Party Rocking” 50-70K
6 12 Coldplay “Mylo Xyloto”
7 20 Florence + the Machine “Ceremonials”
8 9 The Black Keys “El Camino”
9 7 Rihanna “Talk That Talk”
10 23 Lil Wayne “Tha Carter IV”

Billboard states:
The Building Chart reflects the first four days (Monday through Thursday) of SoundScan’s tracking week (which ends Sunday) as reported by six major merchants: iTunes, Trans World Entertainment, Best Buy, Starbucks, Target and Anderson Merchandisers. Billboard estimates that they make up about 85% of all U.S. album sales.

Anderson Merchandisers is Walmart.

It will be interesting to see how the Idols who were in the top 200 fare this week. It’s likely we’ll still see Scotty, Kelly and Daughtry in the top 50. Drops can be anywhere in the 50-80% range so brace yourselves. Although 150K in sales is great, that’s a 62% drop for Adele from the previous week. On the other hand, LFMAO seems to be defying trends by selling almost what they sold last week (74K).

Hits Daily Double Chart

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Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.