HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Dec 10-16

With 55.94% of reports in, Taylor Swift’s “RED” is coasting to another win atop the BB200 chart. She is predicted to sell an impressive 190K-200K this week. What will be in your stocking this year? Bruno Mars should be second on the chart with the highest debut of the week with around 140-160K in sales. That is quite a step up from his 55K opening frame with “Doo Wops and Other Hooligans”. I wonder what his strategy was opening so close to Christmas? Those post-Christmas cliffs are awe inducing.

Michael Buble shoves the old guy aside to move into the top Christmas album of the week position. Last year, his Christmas album did very impressive numbers becoming the second best selling album of 2011 (almost 2.5M), but it looks like some people have still yet to buy it. Rod Stewart is doing well for his two days in studio with “Merry Christmas Baby” in 5th position. Blake Shelton (Voice Judge) has his Christmas offering at 9th while Lady A’s is at 10th. Comparison song to pick your favourite: “Blue Christmas” (though “White Christmas”, “Let it Snow”, and “I’ll be Home for Christmas” can be found on three of them).

Speaking of Christmas, don’t know what to get that extra person on your Christmas list because you have no idea what their taste is? Why not Now 44? Surely there is a song on there that they will like. It also features American Idol Kelly Clarkson, Canadian Idol Carly Rae Jepsen, Voice Judge Adam Levine and American Idol judge Nicki Minaj. If not Now 44, than Now 44-1, Now 44-2, Now 44-3….Why not just give them a $10 iTunes gift card and let them pick songs they do like? Now is 6th.

Jason Alden surges to 7th.

Now, onto reality singing show contestants. One Direction seems to have taken permanent hold of the number 4 slot on the BB200 chart. Nice work if you can get it. I wish they had finished 4th on X-Factor so I could link that in some way. But, they were 3rd on Season 7, and 7-3 equals 4 so I’m sure there is some weird stat I could come up with if I worked as a colour commentator for baseball. This will be their 3rd week at 4th so I hope they can hang on for another week.

Meanwhile, Phil Phillip seems to have decided to stay in the top 10 of the BB200 album chart forever. He is currently in 8th, but if you exclude the Christmas albums and Now 44 ahead of him (and January will), he’d be in 5th. He is a little energizer bunny considering that Idol fan fueled buying can tend to peter out pretty quickly. Goodness knows I’m not fan of his singing, but I have to think he’s moved at least partly outside of the bubble and these albums are now also being sold to people who just like his coronation song. God Bless Jimmy Iovine for stopping the tradition of “This is My Now Inside Your Heaven Making Mom Proud” type songs. Yes, yes, if Phil hadn’t sung “Home” well it wouldn’t be a hit either, but there is no way he could have sold a traditional Idol coronation song.

Speaking of Idol winners, there is Scotty McCreery sitting at 12th with his Christmas album. Maybe if he’d added “Blue Christmas” he would be in the top 10 too. Carrie Underwood, also lacking “Blue Christmas” because her album is not a Christmas album, makes a big move up this week into the top 15. Our final entry from Idol is Kelly Clarkson at 32nd for her Greatest Hits Album. One Direction notches another album in the top 50 with their earlier entry from 2012 (“Up All Night”) at 24. From the Got Talent series, we have two runners-up. AGT’s Jackie Evancho’s Christmas album, “Heavenly Christmas”, is at 44th while right behind her is BGT’s SuBo’s latest offering at 45.

Let’s see: Idol 4 albums, X-Factor 2 albums, Got Talent 2 albums, Voice 0 albums

Will their “Bulk buy iTunes singles or your contestant gets the boot” training regime change that outcome for this season’s contestants? Or will the Voice fans be too broke from two seasons of iTunes trench warfare to have any money left to purchase albums?

CHART DATE: 12/17/2012
LAST UPDATE: 12/17/2012 16:07:58
NOW IN: 55.94%

LW TW artist / album label power index
1 1 TAYLOR SWIFT RED 93,983
— 2 BRUNO MARS UNORTHODOX JUKEBOX 73,929
5 3 MICHAEL BUBLE CHRISTMAS 69,657
4 4 ONE DIRECTION TAKE ME HOME 46,412
3 5 ROD STEWART MERRY CHRISTMAS BABY 45,840
13 6 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 44 VARIOUS ARTISTS 36,234
15 7 JASON ALDEAN NIGHT TRAIN 28,409
8 8 PHILLIP PHILLIPS WORLD FROM THE SIDE OF THE MOON 26,800
10 9 BLAKE SHELTON CHEERS, IT’S CHRISTMAS 26,671
9 10 LADY ANTEBELLUM ON THIS WINTER’S NIGHT 26,388

16 12 SCOTTY MCCREERY MERC CHRISTMAS WITH SCOTTY 24,770

25 15 CARRIE UNDERWOOD BLOWN AWAY 20,350

24 30 ONE DIRECTION UP ALL NIGHT 13,049

37 32 KELLY CLARKSON GREATEST HITS – CHAPTER 1 12,011

22 34 MAROON 5 OVEREXPOSED 10,821

32 40 CEE LO GREEN CEE LO’S MAGIC MOMENT 7,674

— 44 JACKIE EVANCHO HEAVENLY CHRISTMAS 6,913
35 45 SUSAN BOYLE STANDING OVATION: THE GREATEST 6,820

40 50 ROLLING STONES GRRR! GREATEST HITS 5,183

Hits Daily Double

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Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.