Monday Morning Mediabase Update – 11/24/08

The Davids are doing terrific! Keep it up boys.

David Archuleta:
à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Crushà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ : 11 AC (12), ^17 HAC (16), 21 Pop(18)
David Cook:
à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Time of My Lifeà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ : 1 AC (1)
à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Light Onà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ : ^16 HAC (19), ^32 Pop (35)

Okay, this is really an airplay thread, but numbers have creaped in here a few times in the last few weeks and these are cool numbers so, I thought I’d post them here.

Anyway, 2m (numbers guru extraordinaire) at Pulse keeps track of leaked numbers throughout the year and has compiled a list of the BB Year End (yes, the BB year is now over) top album and digital albums. Here are the Idols did (remember these sales consist of sales starting from the same week this last year. (ie next year’s numbers start with this week’s sales (week of Nov 17-23) and all numbers reported so far belong to last year on BB)).

Albums (Top 50)

10 Carrie Underwood “Carnival Ride” 1,613,962
33 Daughtry “Daughtry” 1,013,979
36 Jordin Sparks “Jordin Sparks” 956,098

Digital Singles (Top 17)
6 Jordin Sparks “No Air” 2,482,425

Crush should be #10 on AC tomorrow. Also hopefully 9 or 8 relatively soon.

LOL. “Crush” made the latest version of Kidz Bop:

Kidz-Bop 15

So did Jordin’s “One Step At a Time” and Daughtry’s “What About Now” (and I have to wonder what they are going to do with the words to Pink’s “So What”. At least they went with Nickelback’s “Gotta Be Somebody” and not their latest song…).

Yup Kirsten haha. That ought to be interesting lol

and Crush just came on my station haha

I don’t think there was any way that DA was getting away with not having Crush on Kidz Bop. lol.

Great job for both Davids! And whoohoooo on those album numbers for last year too!!

BTW – Do any of you pros here have any idea whether there’s any validity to the net rumor that HDD sales charts peeps take this week off, and so we won’t see the growing album sales numbers today and tomorrow? Thanks for any info!

HDD is updating right…….now!

At 36.20%:

LW TW artist / album label power index
– 1 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 191,335
I AM… SASHA FIERCE
– 2 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 137,527
DARK HORSE
– 3 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 96,525
DAVID COOK
1 4 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 95,482
FEARLESS
3 5 NOW 29 UME 62,160
VARIOUS ARTISTS
6 6 AC/DC COLUMBIA 44,263
BLACK ICE
– 7 IL DIVO COLUMBIA 38,472
PROMISE
5 8 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 31,567
SOUNDTRACK
2 9 DAVID ARCHULETA JIVE/ZLG 29,458
DAVID ARCHULETA
8 10 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL: SENIOR YEAR WALT DISNEY RECORDS 27,037
SOUNDTRACK

Go Davids!

LOL Guess I was just a tad impatient! Thanks for the update.

So, if these #’s hold, DC would be at about 290k and DA at 90k. It looks like Walmart’s #’s are in, since ACDC is listed. Taylor had a deluxe Walmart exclusive version of her album, so I’m guessing she sold disproportionately more there, won’t stay so close to DC’s numbers once other vendors are added.

Ahh—I hadn’t noted AC/DC. Good pickup on that meaning that Walmart was in. If Walmart is in and we’re only at 36.2%, I’m going to guess that itunes is not in yet.

You can’t really extrapolate from these numbers, though, right? Because it all depends on who has reported. Does anyone know when the big sellers typically report?

Does anyone know how often they update between now and… whenever it is we get the final numbers (Tuesday or Wednesday)? Just trying to figure out if/how often I need to obsessively check in.

Last week, in this thread, there was an update at 3:48 pm EST (55% complete), then Tuesday around noon (70%), and then complete at about 5 pm.

Hey, Kirsten: Last week you did some mathematical analysis to DA’s numbers to calculate what his sales would have been in the 2006 market. Will you also be doing that for DC’s numbers this week?

Kirsten, do you have any idea how the track list for kidz-bop is made?

There’s more than one Walmart reporting entity, isn’t there? They lease their music section out to several companies. So there may be more Walmart to come, I think.

So, if these #à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s hold, DC would be at about 290k and DA at 90k.

It’s generally not safe to extrapolate HDD numbers. Sometimes, you get an artist that scales proportionally, but that doesn’t happen very often (Archie actually kind of scaled with his 36.2% numbers last week predicting 187K when HDD numbers ended up at 180K (SS at 183), but NOW would have sacled to 274K (ended up at 166K) and Taylor at 674K (597K). 36.2% of the market has reported. Vendors have different customer bases. Some will skew toward country. Some to Urban. That’s why scaling doesn’t normally occur.

BTW, if you were to extrapolate the David’s numbers, DC would end up at 267K while DA would be at 81K.

It looks like Walmartà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s #à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s are in, since ACDC is listed.

Walmart reports in two bunches. For instance, last week at this point AC/DC was at 64K and ended up at 104K by the the Final report.

Taylor had a deluxe Walmart exclusive version of her album, so Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m guessing she sold disproportionately more there, wonà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t stay so close to DCà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s numbers once other vendors are added.

But doesn’t DC also have some special version at Walmart? It may also be disproportionately represented (here lies the problem with extrapolating). In any event, some Walmarts have reported and Walmart tends to skew Country, so I agree that Taylor may not keep her current pace.

Hey, Kirsten: Last week you did some mathematical analysis to DAà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s numbers to calculate what his sales would have been in the 2006 market. Will you also be doing that for DCà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s numbers this week?

Yes, but I will wait until the SS numbers are in. HDD numbers are just predictions and BB also gives me the percentage slip from the previous year. So, I won’t do it until Wednesday.

Does anyone know how often they update between now andà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ whenever it is we get the final numbers (Tuesday or Wednesday)?

They update every 5 minutes, but most updates have no changes. Major updates come in erratically. The final numbers are usually in by around 1 on Wednesday (PST).

Kirsten, do you have any idea how the track list for kidz-bop is made?

I figure they just pick popular songs that kids would like to sing. They do clean up the lyrics a bit, so I imagine that something which was too far out there wouldn’t stand a chance.

Thanks, Kristen. The extrapolation you did last week was pretty interesting, so I’m glad that you’re doing it again.

And the thoughts on scaling all makes sense to me.

Thanks Kirsten. I remember that the NOW album had pretty large numbers early on but ended up coming in below DA, so it definitely isn’t easy to predict.

Deleted

Archie actually kind of scaled with his 36.2% numbers last week predicting 187K when HDD numbers ended up at 180K (SS at 183)

It’s interesting that Archie wound up almost scaled proportionally last week to his numbers at 36%. 81K is a bit too high for HDD’s Friday projection, which didn’t have Archie in the top 10, and #10 with 65-70K. But it’s not as if they haven’t been wrong with Archie before–and I suspect 2nd week sales are harder to project than first week sales since there’s no obvious buying pattern. For whatever it’s worth, StreetPulse puts Archie at 79K, but I personally think anything around 65K would be more realistic. Frankly, I’ll be happy with anything over 50K.

Pink sold about the same as Archie her first week (about 3K less). Her second week she pulled in 73K. At 37% in she was at 27K. Different artists sell differently, but it’s interesting that HDD, StreetPulse and a comparison to Pink all put him above 70K. It would be awesome if it was–means that he’s showing an average drop-off; not an American Idol frontload drop-off.

So, if these #à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s hold, DC would be at about 290k and DA at 90k.

Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s generally not safe to extrapolate HDD numbers.

Yes that’s why I said if and about, etc.

Taylor has an exclusive video on her album. DC has 1 extra song. ACDC was #1 on Walmart’s chart last week, Taylor was #2. She wasn’t as high as #2 on any of the other charts I was watching last week, thus leading me to believe that her Walmart percentage will be higher than her percentage at some of the other major vendors. It’s all speculation at this point, I’m just offering my guesses. I seem to recall seeing lots of predictions made about airplay and sales in the past. Are they not allowed now? :smile2_ee:

I didn’t know that streetpulse put out estimates, soundscene. What are its estimates for DC this week, if you know? How about for Taylor Swift, Nickelback, and Beyonce? I’ve only seen the HDD estimates…. [And thanks.]

I didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t know that streetpulse put out estimates, soundscene. What are its estimates for DC this week, if you know? How about for Taylor Swift, Nickelback, and Beyonce? Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve only seen the HDD estimatesà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦. [And thanks.]

StreetPulse isn’t as accurate as HDD. It just shows you a percentage gain or loss from the previous week and they’re known to be more “off” than HDD. What they do, basically, is they put out radio format-based album sales charts each week. For example, their Mainstream Top 40 only tracks albums by artists that have 5 or more spins on Top 40. Same for Hot AC, AC, rhytmic, Alternative, etc.

You can access it by signing up for AllAccess.com, going to any radio format page, and then clicking on the StreetPulse link on the left.

But you won’t be able to extrapolate DC’s numbers this week because he doesn’t have any numbers last week to compare to a percentage gain or loss. He does have some numbers (street violations) but we don’t know what they are. I think he is around 600% or something. But without knowing those street violation numbers, the percentage increase won’t do any good.

I could extrapolate DA’s numbers because I know what he sold last week. Again, though, I tend to think StreetPulse’s percentages trend too “good,” meaning the extrapolated numbers are a little too high.

ETA: Taylor has a -49%. You can’t tell NB or Beyonce b/c no numbers from last week. T-Pain is at -66%, DA at -57%.

StreetPulse is on the AllAccess site.

I’m not sure where soundscene got the numbers, but the part of StreetPulse I’m aware of publishes the percentage change from the previous week. Right now it has Archie pegged to have sales down 57% (typical for albums these days), which would put him at 79K. Perhaps soundscene has found a place where they post actual numbers (or just did the math).

Taylor Swift is said to be down 49% which would put her at 301K. Nickelback and Beyonce are new so they don’t have a percentage change (but they are listed as 1 and 3 respectively). Cook is listed as having the number 2 album with an increase of sales of 603%. Street violations strike again! I don’t find StreetPulse to be all that accurate.

ETA: Soundscene answered in the interim.

Here is one of the things I can’t figure out about StreetPulse. It lists the top 3 pop artists as Beyonce, Cook, Nickelback so one would think they would have the 1,2,3 albums this week or something like that. But, then you go to the Active Rock page and they list the top 2 artists as Nickelback and Cook. So, what methodology are they using? Nickelback as no increase listed for Pop, but on Rock, it’s seeing a 15,650% increase. Cook as the same increase on Pop and Rock. I don’t know. They are wacky. They show the general trend, but the percentages are often off the wall.

Meanwhile, over on AC, Enya is first, Behonce is second, Josh Groban is third, David Cook is fourth and Nickelback is fifth. On Alternative Rock, David Cook is first and Nickelback is second. On Mainstream Rock, Nickelback is first and Cook doesn’t appear.

Ah—okay. I had seen the streetpulse % gain and loss on allaccess, but not numbers. It was also confusing—most of the format charts had DC outselling Nickelback, but one chart had Nickelback ahead. Another format chart had Enya outselling Beyonce, which we know isn’t right.

Ahà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’ okay. I had seen the streetpulse % gain and loss on allaccess, but not numbers. It was also confusingà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’ most of the format charts had DC outselling Nickelback, but one chart had Nickelback ahead. Another format chart had Enya outselling Beyonce, which we know isnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t right.

Yeah, it is confusing, and I’ll never quite get their ranking system. Enya “outsold” Taylor last week on the AC chart. Of course, that didn’t actually happen. I’m sure StreetPulse has other factors that contribute to their ranking of albums that have to do with the format they are tracking. Unfortunately, they don’t explain their methodology very well.

The amount of cross-posting that occurred there about streetpulse is pretty funny. Although, I will admit, I am easily amused.

UM is this accurate?
http://addboard.mediabase.com/AddDetails.asp?sngcde=COOKLO
Because would that mean Z100 added LO?

UM is this accurate?
http://addboard.mediabase.com/AddDetails.asp?sngcde=COOKLO
Because would that mean Z100 added LO?

Yes, it’s added Light On. Z100 already reported its adds for this week to Mediabase (you can check them if you search for WHTZ on All Access and click on their adds). Those are the stations that have already reported their adds for this week.

Notably, KBIG added both LO and Crush this week. Full Hot AC and AC adds show up in an hour.

CHART DATE: 11/24/2008
LAST UPDATE: 11/24/2008 14:53:00
NOW IN: 51.61%

LW TW artist / album label power index
– 1 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 226,900
I AM… SASHA FIERCE
– 2 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 183,035
DARK HORSE
– 3 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 136,603
DAVID COOK
1 4 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 118,281
FEARLESS
3 5 NOW 29 UME 63,810
VARIOUS ARTISTS
5 6 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 57,683
SOUNDTRACK
6 7 AC/DC COLUMBIA 44,263
BLACK ICE
– 8 IL DIVO COLUMBIA 42,307
PROMISE
2 9 DAVID ARCHULETA JIVE/ZLG 33,056
DAVID ARCHULETA
8 10 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL: SENIOR YEAR WALT DISNEY RECORDS 30,542
SOUNDTRACK

I’m so happy to see Archie’s album still in the top 10. Congratulations to both Davids!

Looks like Folkfan and I posted it at the same time.

Finally: HDD update, at 50.65% complete:

LW TW artist / album label power index
– 1 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 226,900
– 2 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 183,035
– 3 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 136,603
1 4 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 118,281
3 5 NOW 29 UME 63,810
5 6 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 57,683
6 7 AC/DC COLUMBIA 44,263
– 8 IL DIVO COLUMBIA 42,307
2 9 DAVID ARCHULETA JIVE/ZLG 33,056
8 10 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL: SENIOR YEAR WALT DISNEY RECORDS 30,542

No increase to AC/DC, so no additional Walmart numbers in there. No Xtina, so likely no Target numbers in there. On another cheerful note, LO is sitting at #41 on itunes top songs.

CHART DATE: 11/24/2008
LAST UPDATE: 11/24/2008 15:18:08
NOW IN: 52.57%

Top 10 numbers remain exactly the same.

I know we’re not supposed to extrapolate from these numbers towards the total, but hey, I’m bored.
So far both updates give about the same total (which, of course, means nothing, but again, bored) of around 265,000.
I’d be happy if it holds, it’s far beyond my expectations. As far as I’m concerned, anything above 200K is excellent.

PS – I did enter a prediction contest with (IIRC) 270,500, so hey, I could be close.

Cross-posting for the win. I’ll resist posting any adds info, as Pam normally does that. [grin]

I’m betting that last update was iTunes.

Beyonce increased by 35K
Cook by 40K
NB by 45K

If you think about where they were on the iTunes chart this past week, that looks about right. And it explains why, save for Twilight (which sells very well digitally), 5-14 only had minimal updates and Twilight increased by about 16K. iTunes generally only sells large amounts of new (and hot) releases, not older releases, unless they put them up for sale.

Yeah, still missing half of Wal-Mart (or about 40% judging from AC/DC’s numbers), all of Target, and other smaller retailers. I’m betting the first update that got us to 36% was mostly (or entirely) Wal-Mart. Wal-Mart makes up about 18-20% of the market, but HDD doesn’t track the whole market.

Interestingly, last week around this time, a little over half of Target was already in, so comparing trends to this time last week won’t work. And I don’t know if it was iTunes that came in at this time last week. I think maybe iTunes came in on Tuesday last week.

Cross-posting for the win. Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll resist posting any adds info, as Pam normally does that.

I couldn’t help but laugh when I saw that 3 of us had posted the same info at around the same time. I think we are all on the ball today. Hee

I think the updates may have stopped for today. We are sitting at 52.57% for the end of the day today it looks like. The last couple of updates were percentages in small increments with no changes.

Here are the station adds.

LO:

Hot AC

KBIG-FM Los Angeles (#2)
KALC-FM Denver (#22)
WOMX-FM Orlando (#34)
WDVW-FM New Orleans (#55)
WNNK-FM Harrisburg (#78)
WWWM-FM Toledo (#88)
WSYR-FM Ft. Pierce, FL (#96)
KBBY-FM Oxnard-Ventura, CA (#117)
WJLQ-FM Pensacola, FL (#126)
WQSM-FM Fayetteville, NC (#130)
KQHN-FM Shreveport, LA (#131)
WQLH-FM Appleton, WI (#135)
KQCS-FM Quad Cities, IA-IL (#144)
WZAT-FM Savannah, GA (#157)
WBWZ-FM Poughkeepsie (#163)

AC

WWFS-FM New York (#1)

Crush

Hot AC

KBIG-FM Los Angeles (#2)
WBMX-FM Boston (#10)
WDVW-FM New Orleans (#55)
KZZU-FM Spokane (#92)
KFYV-FM Oxnard-Ventura, CA (#117)
WBWZ-FM Poughkeepsie (#163)

AC

WMGF-FM Orlando (#34)

No updates yet, huh?

^^ HDD is abnormally slow today.

^^Is it just me, or has the HDD building sales chart been stuck at 12:26:54 for an inordinate amount of time?

(Yes, I’m in full blown obsession mode. LOL)

Maybe they’re having trouble calculating all those sales for David Cook… :tongue3_tb:

They also just posted their rumors for next weeks big sellers, which look to be big, especially Kanye West and GnR. So, they could have gotten distracted.

Yeah, where did they stash the formula for “6 months worth of online presales beginning immediately after huge Finale show, but hampered by glitchy preorder system at Amazon…plus crazy Idol fans”?

Since I’m about to go to lunch for an hour I’m sure they’ll post while I’m gone.

At last—final HDD update:

LW TW artist / album label power index % change
– 1 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 505,593 –
– 2 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 320,187 –
– 3 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 283,446 –
1 4 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 209,513 -65%
– 5 IL DIVO COLUMBIA 154,496 –
5 6 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 117,244 2%
3 7 NOW 29 UME 113,561 -32%
8 8 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL: SENIOR YEAR WALT DISNEY RECORDS 87,327 -1%
7 9 ENYA REPRISE 79,811 -15%
6 10 AC/DC COLUMBIA 71,484 -32%
2 11 DAVID ARCHULETA JIVE/ZLG 62,914 -65%

Wow! Congratulations to both the Davids!!

Also, Michelle: You really should have headed to lunch earlier. [grin]

Yes! Yes! Yes!!!!!

Also, Michelle: You really should have headed to lunch earlier.

I had the screen up but I must have looked away for a fraction of a second and saw the post at DCO saying the numbers were in. I almost didn’t believe it. Heh

Poor Michelle. I think she’ll like what she sees when she gets back though.

Big congrats to Archie too.

Congrats to both David’s! The nice thing is that DA’s percentage drop was the same as Taylor’s. That is respectable!

Congrats to both Davids!

I’m really happy Archie had a normal drop-off–both Taylor Swift and T-Pain had a 65% drop-off as well. It means that his sales weren’t overly fueled by “Idol sales.”

Next week should be interesting. It’s Black Friday weekend and the start of the holiday buying season. Numbers should be somewhat skewed for everybody.

Next week should be interesting. Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s Black Friday weekend and the start of the holiday buying season. Numbers should be somewhat skewed for everybody.

Could you explain. Does that mean that you think that David A’s sales will increase for next week, hold at this week’s level, or just not decline by as large a percentage as this week?

OMG YAY!!! :clap_tb: GO COOKIE!! I was so stuck on LO’s numbers I didn’t think he could barely crack 250,000 *slaps self*

I just hope that DA’s album is back in stock. In many places they have been out of it. Maybe they just didn’t send enough.

YAY, David x 2!! Splendid~ :lol_wp:

Could you explain. Does that mean that you think that David Aà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s sales will increase for next week, hold at this weekà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s level, or just not decline by as large a percentage as this week?

It means that some albums could see an increase in sales (mostly the ones that are selling at lower numbers already), and other albums could decrease in sales less than they would otherwise if it wasn’t Black Friday weekend. I don’t know about David A.’s album sales increasing, but it may not drop-off as much as it otherwise would for 3rd week sales. Just as Cook may not experience a normal drop-off because his second week is during Black Friday weekend. But it’s hard to tell. Some albums are better Christmas sellers than others.

Yeah DC! :cool1_tb: Good show!

Congrats to Archie and fans too. I hope they both gain those sales outside the idol bubble.

Congrats DC & Congrats Archie!!

Great numbers!

I just hope that DAà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s album is back in stock. In many places they have been out of it. Maybe they just didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t send enough.

Yeah, that’s been a problem. But I’ve been hearing that stores have been restocking it for this coming weekend, so hopefully most have.

Aha! You’re all welcome

Excellent numbers for both Davids, and as promised I am Ecstatic (plus 83,446)!

Let’s hope for a soft drop for next week’s numbers thanks to Black Friday…

Not to sound gloomy, but I don’t actually expect Black Friday and the weekend to make much of a difference for anyone this year given the current economic climate. I hope I’m proven wrong btw. But I also think the economy is part of what led some vendors to understock for both idols, as I’ve heard “horror” sellout stories for both Davids — and I don’t think it was off the chart sales that did it, given the high expectations.

Speaking of, will Kirsten be extrapolating Cook’s numbers in light of this year’s industry decline? Pretty please… and thanks! :smile2_ee:

Congrats to both Davids. We have two success stories and fans are the winners (and Sony/BMG which is making big bucks at at time when spending on music is way down).

I don’t know; CDs make pretty cheap holiday presents. In these economic times, I’d buy Junior a CD before I bought him a $50.00 Wii game.

Great numbers! It’s very cool to see Cook holding his own with the big names at the top, even though Beyonce put the smack down on everyone this week!

Speaking of, will Kristen be extrapolating Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s numbers in light of this yearà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s industry decline? Pretty pleaseà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ and thanks!

Sure will. Tomorrow, when we get the real numbers and the percentage drop.

Sony/BMG

Sony

LOL. I’m such a picker of nits.

Some comparison and perspective. Ladymadonna at DCO pulled these numbers of 2008 number 1 debuts. Both Davids could have been #1 in less competitive weeks. Cook beat everyone on this list, which includes Madonna; Archie bested Alan Jackson, George Strait, Neal Diamond, Kenny Chesney, Death Cab, and 3 Doors Down. Both went up against powerhouses that sold more than 500k.

Tue, 11/25/2008 – 18:30 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’  ladymadonna

Regarding 2008 albums debuting at #1 with less than 283K in sales, there are tons of them (it’s the rule rather than the exception in this day and age):

March 22, 2008
119,151 GOOD TIME Alan Jackson
March 29, 2008
198,375 TRILLA Rick Ross

April 5, 2008
236,192 WELCOME TO THE DOLLHOUSE Danity Kane

April 12, 2008
189,632 DAY26 Day26

April 19, 2008
166,305 TROUBADOUR George Strait

April 26, 2008
204,841 SPIRIT Leona Lewis

May 17, 2008
279,522 HARD CANDY Madonna

May 24, 2008
145,840 HOME BEFORE DARK Neil Diamond

May 31, 2008
143,586 NARROW STAIRS Death Cab For Cutie

June 7, 2008
154,372 3 DOORS DOWN 3 Doors Down

June 21, 2008
252,777 INDESTRUCTIBLE Disturbed

August 2, 2008
186,640 UNTITLED Nas

September 13, 2008
239,516 ALL HOPE IS GONE Slipknot

September 20, 2008
259,782 THE RECESSION Young Jeezy

November 1, 2008
176,414 LUCKY OLD SUN Kenny Chesney

November 22, 2008
164,710 TWILIGHT Soundtrack

NB: I pulled these quickly so I may have accidentally missed a few or included some that weren’t chart debuts. But this should give you the general idea. Dave’s done damn good.

Congrats to both Davids!!!

Yea!!!

I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t know; CDs make pretty cheap holiday presents. In these economic times, Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢d buy Junior a CD before I bought him a $50.00 Wii game.

I think so too. I don’t think people stop buying things, they just go for what’s less expensive. And all things considered music is always a nice cheap present. May not see a big drop.

Go DC Go! What an awesome opening week number! I am so pleased for him.

Thanks for the list, Scott, and by extension…many thanks to LadyMadonna for compiling the data.

Cook beat everyone on this list, which includes Madonna; Archie bested Alan Jackson, George Strait, Neal Diamond, Kenny Chesney, Death Cab, and 3 Doors Down. Both went up against powerhouses that sold more than 500k.

Both Davids have every reason to be extremely pleased with their debuts.(I know, all the numbers aren’t in yet on David C.)

May I just note the irony of the third last title on the list?

September 20, 2008
259,782 THE RECESSION Young Jeezy

Why, yes.

If DC’s numbers hold, DCTR would have the 15th highest first week’s sales of the year thus far, and the highest for a new artist. (Year to date is important—Kanye West and GnR look likely to post higher first weeks when the numbers come in for next week.)

I’m just happy both Davids outdebuted the freakin Twilight soundtrack. (Does that put them on Team Potter?

I know, all the numbers arenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t in yet on David C.

What numbers are missing?

Fabulous numbers. I, too, said anything over 200,000 would make me happy, so 283K is dandy!

15th highest first-week sales of the year, highest first-week sales for a new artist, 283K up against Beyonce and Nickelback, more than Taylor Swift… Very, very good work, Mr. Cook!

I lost the prediction contest.

But – I lost it because I bet too low, not too high! That’s one competition I’m happy to lose.

GO DC! He did amazing. Whooot!

If DCà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s numbers hold, DCTR would have the 15th highest first weekà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s sales of the year thus far, and the highest for a new artist.

Really? That’s so freaking awesome!

I’ll post updated numbers tomorrow after the soundscan data is in, but yup.

I think Cook will also have some great figures next week. Because his album sales are still high, and t Walmart and Amazon re-stocked this week.

#4 Borders
#7 Barns & Noble
#4 Amazon
#1 Newbury Comics
#3 Walmart

Lisa wrote: What numbers are missing?

I’m going by Kirstens post, “tomorrow, when we get the real numbers and the percentage drop.”…and information that perhaps 20% of the sales from smaller retailers are not yet reported.

highest first-week sales for a new artist, 283K up against Beyonce and Nickelback, more than Taylor Swiftà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ Very, very good work, Mr. Cook!

Indeed.

And this? will send me looking for a list of sales that only ranks new artist debuts in 2008…but after tomorrow, of course.

I think we will get actuals from Amazon via Soundscan tomorrow too. Since Amazon doesn’t report to HDD, HDD has to plug in an estimate number for them for the numbers they reported today. Amazon doesn’t have a huge market share though so they usually don’t end up changing the final count too much from HDD.

Thanks to all who answered! Go DC! I am so happy for him!

The amazon numbers, like Michelle said, aren’t usually all that big… no where in the league of Walmart & itunes, but Cook sells above the norm there. Well, that’s mostly anectdotal, but his fans do seem to prefer Amazon more than fans of other artists. If that’s the case, he could get a bump up on the final numbers. Last week I think Archie ended up with a 3000 plus bump from the Tuesday final estimate (correct me if I’m wrong). If that happens in the same proportion, Cook could be get a 5000 bump. If amazon sales are higher for Cook as the anectdotal evidence suggests, he could get up to a 7000 bump and top off around 290,000. I’m not overly optimistic, but I don’t rule it out. I would guess he’ll come in around 285k when all is said and done, which is fantastic.

Scott, you are definitely Optimistic to a Fault!

I’d love to hear Cook’s reaction to all this ’bout now.

10-to-1 odds that he’d cry, if he hasn’t already. [grin]

10-to-1 odds that heà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢d cry, if he hasnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t already. [grin]

:happy_tb:

Congratulations to DC on a great opening week! I’m so proud of him.

^^^ Awwww, he’s a weeper. I, for one, hope his tears of joy roll, roll, roll on, certainly throughout his Turkey Day dinner and well, well beyond!

As an FYI, I did a double-check on the Billboard numbers. If DC’s numbers hold where they are, his first-week sales would be the 16th best debut of the year (best for a new artist), and 18th best sales week of the year. Obviously, there are still 5 more sales weeks to go, and some may (and, in the case of Kanye West and GnR, are predicted to) outsell that 283K number. But all in all, quite a good week for Mr. Cook. I can put out numbers on that tomorrow, once we have finals for this week, if folks are interested.

Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m really happy Archie had a normal drop-offà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’both Taylor Swift and T-Pain had a 65% drop-off as well. It means that his sales werenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t overly fueled by à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Idol sales.à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ 

Actually, no, it means nothing of the kind. I think it all depends on which way the numbers are spun and what purpose they fit (as with all things).
Most artists (Idol or otherwise) experience a drop anywhere from 50 to 70 percent in their second sales week. So, it could be spun that there were no or few Idol-fueled sales (but without documentation of the pre-orders which were undoubtedly Idol-related, there isn’t much to back that statement up outside of conjecture).

Of course, the other spin would be that Crush sold 166k in its first week and the album only bested it by 17k (with pre-orders included). When the single went on to be a Top 20 hit and sell a million copies, those numbers could be viewed as a disappointment or an indication that fans interested in purchasing all of an artist’s music hasn’t increased from the initial outing. Or it could be viewed as simply standard sales for teen pop (singles, not necessarily albums).

Please note that I am not saying that any of these scenarios are the case because, in all honesty, none of us know these things. I am simply demonstrating that numbers of all kinds can be interpreted in a number of ways; it all depends on which side of the fence you are on. And, it helps to be a spin doctor with authoritative, convincing flair (but usually only with people who don’t care to think for themselves). LOL

Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m just happy both Davids outdebuted the freakin Twilight soundtrack. (Does that put them on Team Potter?

Team Potter FTW!!!!