Idol Sales News – Week Ending 12/08/13

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Update from Billboard:
2 One Direction “Midnight Memories” 117K (-79%)
3 Kelly Clarkson “Wrapped In Red” 112K (-15%) Woot! Number 1 Christmas Album
4 Britney Spears “Britney Jean” 107K Top Debut
5 Robertsons “Duck the Halls: A Robertson Family Christmas” 105K (-23%)
7 Pentatonix “PTXmas” 60K (119%) “Little Drummber Boy” uploaded to Youtube on Nov. 25 has 16.5M views!

Garth Brooks is pretty much guaranteed to have the number one album in his second week since he’s far enough out ahead in the HDD estimates. And that’s with a 26% drop. The week after Black Friday always takes its toll, but Garth is somewhat cushioned by only having a four day sales week the previous week.

One Direction may be in second after a massive 79% drop in their second week. That’s in line with their previous album and Black Friday first weeks usually do lead to higher drops in the second week, so it’s not time to hit the panic button yet. I said “may be in second” because this is one of the closest races we’ve seen in a while. HDD’s second through fifth albums differ in estimated sales by under 1500 albums. That’s certainly within their margin of error. One Direction is followed by Duck Dynasty (My Boos! Love you crazy kids! Come shoot something in my yard anytime. The spiders are pretty huge and will make good eatin’. Yum! I smell product tie-in! Duck Dynasty Spiders in a Can – like Spam but Crunchier! It will sell like hotcakes! Just like everything else with a DD label), Kelly Clarkson (Boo! Hiss! Take your amazing singing someplace else! Our Christmas plate is full of Duck!) and former ex-X-Factor judge Britney Spears.

The Sing-Off is revived just in time to see Pentatonix’s Christmas album hit 7th in it’s second year. Is it just me, or is Pentatonix’s success one of the reasons NBC is giving the Sing-Off a second chance? Well, that and the fact that NBC seems to struggle to find a hit with anything other than The Voice? In any event, its nice to see Pentatonix’s hard work paying off. They are actually one of five Christmas albums in the top 10 this week. The others being The Robertsons’s (<3!!!), Kelly (|-<), Michael Buble and Mary J. Blige.

Others in the top 50 are the “Sound of Music” soundtrack featuring Carrie Underwood, Voice winner and new NBC Olympic spokesinger Danielle Bradbery in her second week (sporting a smaller than expected second week drop especially post-Black Friday), Daughtry in their third week and the “Best Man Holiday” soundtrack featuring Fantasia and Jordin Sparks.

This is the weekly sales thread. Please post numbers as you find them. Thanks!

 
  • fuzzywuzzy

    Last week’s No. 1, One Direction’s “Midnight Memories,” falls to No. 2 with 117,000 (down 79% in its second week).

    Kelly Clarkson’s “Wrapped In Red” returns to its debut and peak, as it climbs 6-3 with 112,000 (though it’s down 15%). It’s the first of five Christmas albums in the top 10 this week.

    Coming in at No. 4 is the only debut in the top 10: Britney Spears’ “Britney Jean.” The diva collects her ninth top 10 set with the arrival, as the album bows with 107,000. That’s a bit smaller than the industry forecast, which pegged it to start around 115,000 to 120,000.
    …….
    Following Spears on this week’s Billboard 200 is the Robertsons’ “Duck the Halls: A Robertson Family Christmas,” slipping one slot to No. 5 with 105,000 (down 23%)
    …….
    Pentatonix rides its viral hit “Little Drummer Boy” to a career-high week for the a cappella group. The act’s “PTXmas” (EP) flies 29-7 with 60,000 (up 119%). The ensemble’s video for “Little Drummer Boy” was uploaded to YouTube on Nov. 25 to Pentatonix’s official channel and collected 16.5 million views through Dec. 10.

    http://www.billboard.com/articles/news/5820068/garth-brooks-earns-ninth-no-1-album-britney-spears-debuts-at-no-4

    So great to see the Pentatonix’s Xmas EP selling so well!

  • windmills

    Kelly has a great chance at #1 on the BB 200 next week with her Christmas special this week. Her biggest competition is the Duck Dynasty Christmas album, and they also have their Christmas special tonight.

  • fuzzywuzzy

    I haven’t seen much promo for Kelly’s special, whereas A&E are promoting the heck out of the duck guys’ special. It’s too bad that Kelly’s special was rescheduled from following The Voice, as that would have given it a strong lead-in audience. Plus, it’s on at 10:00 PM, which is rather late. Oh well.

  • wonderings

    Great job with the reverse psychology, Kirsten – it worked!! Kelly has outsold the ducks this week! *dances around the blog post*

    “Duck Dynasty (My Boos! Love you crazy kids! Come shoot something in my yard anytime. The spiders are pretty huge and will make good eatin’. Yum! I smell product tie-in! Duck Dynasty Spiders in a Can – like Spam but Crunchier! It will sell like hotcakes! Just like everything else with a DD label)”

  • Kirsten

    Great job with the reverse psychology, Kirstin – it worked!! Kelly has
    outsold the ducks this week! *dances around the blog post*

    I was getting desperate. I had to do something! Go Kelly!

  • fuzzywuzzy

    That’s so funny about the “spiders in a can”, but honestly, anything that the duck guys lend their name to sells amazingly well, so who knows? lol

  • windmills

    Really? Kelly’s been all over and whenever she’s been on a NBC show (like Christmas At Rockefeller Center, The Voice, and the Tonight Show) they’ve at least mentioned her Christmas special. I don’t watch The Voice in real time so I don’t know if they’ve also been airing promo for Kelly’s Christmas special during ad time, but they definitely had an ad for the special during TSOM-Live last week between 9p and 9:30p.

    I definitely would’ve preferred a Voice lead in but we could do worse than a Sing Off lead in.

    I’m not saying I expect Kelly’s special to do better in the demo than the DD special but I feel like it’s not impossible for Kelly to get 7 or 8 million viewers with a 2.0-2.5 in the demo. Maybe I’m just overoptimistic after last week but I also think Kelly’s personal appeal is as high as it’s ever been, plus she has some potentially ratings grabbing guest stars (like Robin Williams).

  • mmb

    Kinda wow at Britney….thats about, what, a little more than a third of her last albums debut? And that was in March not the holiday season…Yeah her lead single was a huge hit last era, and her lead single this era is not..but her last era wasnot that long ago, she had 3 big top ten hits that era and she hasn’t been invisible in the interim

  • fuzzywuzzy

    I hope that you’re right. Maybe, I’ve missed a lot of promo ads, so I’m glad to hear that you’ve seen some.

  • Sunny Mc

    Was NBC showing promos for Kelly’s special during The Sound of Music? That would of got the word out. I had tweets from both Toronto and Buffalo radio stations saying the special is on tonight

  • Jason Gorny

    Yeah and her album is holding up strong at #4 whereas DD is at #16. Kelly has an advantage with being charted higher, a discounted price on iTunes and Amazon, and great radio play. I think she has a great chance to get to #1 next week!

  • Guest

    I’ve been seeing a lot of them especially in St Louis. I saw a Billboard poster for the special by the highway near my school! And the radio mentioned it this morning. I think it got a good amount of promo and I saw several spots for it last night. It will do well.

  • Jake W.

    I’m not surprised. Britney’s new album is pretty bad.

  • ptebwwong

    YOUR NEW RELEASES: It doesn’t look like any of this week’s new releases will debut at #1, though we’re duty-bound to say that R. Kelly’s Black Panties has one of our favorite titles ever. For now, Garth Brooks seems most likely to repeat and with a total that appears to be north of 150k. Tonight, however, Kelly Clarkson and Duck Dynasty’s The Robertsons go head to head with Christmas specials. Who will finish with the season’s best-selling holiday album? To date, The Robertsons have nearly a 70k lead over Clarkson. Will tonight’s specials tighten or widen that gap? Here are this week’s key debuts:

    R. Kelly (RCA) 90-100k
    Childish Gambino (Glassnote) 80-90k
    Neil Young (Reprise) 18-22k

    In a related story, the Chanukah compilation I Think the Soup Is Saltier This Year is not expected to sell impressively. (12/11p)

    http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/news/rumormill.cgi

  • Jason Gorny

    So they are saying that Garth could be #1 again, but it is possible for Kelly or DD to take that spot?

  • ptebwwong

    Yes. They’re saying it depends on the Christmas specials. They’re both selling well right now. But these specials could attract the casual buyers out there.

    Obviously, there are other factors like sale prices, but the specials have the most potential to increase sales since both of these specials should have a good audience.

  • windmills

    One day late but reporting in from Billboard Country Update and Country Aircheck:

    There was 1 recurrent at Mediabase/Country Aircheck and Billboard: Blake Shelton’s Mine Would Be You. This coming week, Taylor Swift’s Red is crashing pretty hard after a final push to achieve a #5 Mediabase peak so look for Red to go recurrent after a #7 Billboard peak. There’s also a chance Joe Nichols’s Sunny & 75 will go recurrent out of the t10. It’s most likely 1 or the other will go recurrent at Billboard and not both, but it’s possible both will go recurrent. At Mediabase/Aircheck, Jake Owen’s Days Of Gold will go recurrent out of the t20.

    Cassadee’s Wasting All These Tears had a meh week gaining 612k and holding at #12. Cole Swindell’s Chillin’ It passed and now leads by 529k. David Nail’s Whatever She’s Got closed to 778k behind by outgaining WATT by 1.110 million AIs so he’s a threat to pass this week. Luke Bryan’s Drink A Beer closed to 2.360 million AIs behind WATT by outgaining it by 1.310 million. Look for WATT to finish the week anywhere between #11 and #14. I’d say it’s most likely WATT will finish the week at #11 or #12.

    At Aircheck/Mediabase, WATT had a meh week gaing 316 points and holding at #12. Cole Swindell passed but leads by only 195 points. I think he’ll stay ahead. David Nail’s Whatever She’s Got closed to 206 points behind WATT after outgaining it by 391 points, so he’s a threat to pass. Luke Bryan’s Drink A Beer trails WATT by 1,135 points after outgaining WAT by 766 points. Luke’s single seems to have picked up the pace this week so he will close and maybe pass. It’s possible Taylor and/or Joe Nichols will drop below this week, but it could be close. So, WATT could finish the week anywhere between #10 and #14, most likely #12. One theory here is Big Machine’s Taylor push negatively affected Cassadee (plus The Band Perry) since they’re both in the same label family.

    Danielle’s The Heart Of Dixie had a down week although it maintained its bullet, losing 135k and holding at #22. Scotty closed to 45k behind and Thompson Square passed. Thompson Square now leads by 233k. I think THOD will resume AI gains this week, and Jake Owen will drop below. THOD could wind up anywhere between #19 and #22 this week, most likely either #20 and #21.

    At Aircheck/Mediabase, THOD had a meh week gaining 292 points and moving up a spot to #21. Scotty’s SYT closed to 269 points behind after outgaining THOD by 220 points. Thompson Square started the week 277 points behind. Jake Owen has already dropped below on his route to recurrency. So if THOD keeps up the gains it has seen in Mediabase so far this week, it’ll make MB t20 in its 23rd week on the chart.

    A note about callout: Danielle shot up to #3 in the current Callout America survey (posted in Monday’s Billboard Country Update). Next week, its positive and passion numbers continue to trend up.

    Scotty’s See You Tonight had a decent week at Billboard, gaining 585k and holding at #23. Thompson Square passed and now leads by 278k, while as already mentioned Danielle only leads by 45k. Though SYT could repass THOD I don’t see SYT repassing the Thompson Square single. Jake Owen will drop below, so if SYT can pass 1 song in front of it, it will likely make BB t20 in its 35th week on the chart.

    At Aircheck/Mediabase, SYT had a solid week gainign 512 points and moving back up 3 spots to #22. SYT trails Danielle’s THOD by 269 after outgaining it by 220, so I’m going to guess SYT won’t repass THOD this week. SYT started the week leading Thompson Square by 8 points and Thompson Square has since passed SYT while Jake has dropped below. Look for SYT to finish the week at either #21 or #22.

    Just to warn Scotty fans: SYT is going to take a drop (probably out of the t10) in next week’s Callout America chart, with its overall positive dropping 4.6% next week. It’s one sample of 400 so it may be a blip. Too, just to give another example, Danielle’s THOD trended down a total of 7 or 8 points over 6 weeks before getting a 2nd wind this and next week.

    Kellie’s Little Bit Gypsy gained 205k and moved up 3 spots to #50 Billboard. Toby Keith closed to 7k AIs behind and will probably pass this week. It’s possible Brad Paisley’s new single Mona Lisa will pass this week too. So, look for LBG to finish the week somewhere between #50 and #52 Billboard this week.

    At Aircheck/Mediabase, LBG gained 49 points and held at #46. Sheryl Crow’s new single Callin’ Me When I’m Lonely closed to 96 points behind after outgaining LBG by 70 points. Billy Currington trails by 355 points after outgaining LBG by 198 points. It’ll be close but I’m guessing LBG will finish the week at #45.

    Idol-related ads: None

    Recommended reading: Billboard Country Update leads with a story about Voice contestants going country:

    When Cassadee Pope, Danielle Bradbery and the Swon Brothers perform as guests on the Dec. edition of NBC’s “The Voice,” they’ll make a collective statement about one of the strengths of the show—it’s done really well with country music. ach of those three acts got a recording contract in Nashville in great part because of “The Voice.” Pope, in fact, had no intention of being a country artist until her Nov. 19, 2012 performance of “Over You” made her an instant chart star.

    The article talks about how AI didn’t get into country until a few years into its run. The article confirms Big Machine has 1st rights to country acts on The Voice (and has signed 3: Raelynn, Cassadee, and Danielle), and notes that 2 acts Big Machine passed on (Angie Johnson & The Swon Brothers) wound up with Sony Nashville. The Swon Brothers are quoted about how The Voice’s lack of theme nights allowed them to choose songs that would set up the kind of artists they wanted to be after the show, which is contrasted with Idol’s theme nights, especially if the theme is something like the Beatles or Frank Sinatra. The article ends by saying the TV setup is no guarantee because you have to show your appeal to the larger audience that doesn’t watch the show, and it gets harder when the playing field gets crowded with lots of acts from the same show.

    Country Aircheck leads an interesting article on what tools programmers use to decide on their playlists. It’s different for different stations. Here are a few examples:

    We have Mscore, callout, charts, online research, online sales, concerts being sold out ? every song seems to be a hit with the right data. But first and foremost, you better like the song. Then the small group in your music meetings better like the song. After [the add], we watch Mscores to make sure that after a few weeks we haven’t made a bad decision. It’s also important to be aware of where your songs are on the competitor’s station so you don’t become too unfamiliar. I like monitoring a few similar stations to see what moves they’ve made, too. We’ll be aggressive and move a song up when we have a combination of passion from the staff and positive test scores.

    Mscores, for people who don’t know, measure the tune-in/tune-out factor for each song.

    Here’s another PD:

    I pick the brain of my consultant Keith Hill and weigh local research, national chart movement and pop culture exposure. (Is the artist doing the anthem somewhere, or appearing on American Idol, Dancing With The Stars, etc?) I also look at sales figures in Philly and Baltimore, which we contribute to, and we do local online research; no callout. We get a great sample for our market, though – typically 250-350 Persons 12+.

    Other PDs quoted say they go on gut instinct and ignore the numbers and/or the reaction of crowds at live shows. It’s interesting to see the variety of perspectives.

  • fuzzywuzzy

    There was one that I remember, but I don’t think that there were any more.

  • Anny_nanny

    WEEK OF / SEMAINE DU: 12/01/2013 TOP CANADA

    Weeks Label 2W LW TW Artist Title TW % LW RTD
    On Rank Rank Rank Sales CHG Sales Sales
    1 SMEI 1 ONE DIRECTION MIDNIGHT MEMORIES 62,612 999 8 62,621
    5 RCA 12 14 7 CLARKSON*KELLY WRAPPED IN RED 7,477 65 4,532 25,851
    1 WSU 8 VARIOUS SONGS FOR THE PHILIPPINES 6,820 0 6,820
    5 INT 16 12 12 ROBERTSONS*THE DUCK THE HALL 5,941 26 4,700 20,750
    5 SNYA 29 31 31 BOYLE*SUSAN HOME FOR CHRISTMAS 2,590 34 1,928 11,002
    11 INT 43 43 36 AVICII TRUE 2,173 80 1,209 37,058
    1 BGMA 39 BRADBERY*DANIELLE DANIELLE BRADBERY 2,161 999 1 2,162
    2 RCA 16 48 DAUGHTRY BAPTIZED 1,680 -57 3,882 5,562
    55 SMEI 117 88 80 ONE DIRECTION TAKE ME HOME 985 54 638 243,859
    13 UNI 124 134 109 GRANDE*ARIANA YOURS TRULY 765 76 434 14,797
    90 SMEI 136 121 135 ONE DIRECTION UP ALL NIGHT 584 24 471 263,310
    54 INT 154 180 159 PHILLIPS*PHILLIP WORLD FROM THE SIDE OF THE MOO 468 35 347 115,727
    1 HOL 178 LOVATO*DEMI DEMI 422 55 273 34,740
    53 SONY 200 184 CLARKSON*KELLY GREATEST HITS-CHAPTER 1 402 28 314 57,663
    82 SMEI 132 168 197 UNDERWOOD*CARRIE BLOWN AWAY 378 4 365 124,307

    WEEK OF / SEMAINE DU: 12/01/2013 TOP CATALOGUE

    Weeks Label 2W LW TW Artist Title TW % LW RTD
    On Rank Rank Rank Sales CHG Sales Sales
    1 INDI 3 PENTATONIX PTXMAS 2,634 999 131 4,934
    4 COL 28 24 23 GLEE CAST MUSIC: XMAS 967 61 602 161,825
    4 COL 40 34 30 GLEE CAST GLEE: THE MUSIC, THE CHRISTMAS 726 46 497 73,212
    3 COL 60 47 32 BOYLE*SUSAN GIFT 666 76 378 191,123
    4 COL 44 39 36 GLEE CAST VOL. 3-GLEE: THE MUSIC-CHRISTM 621 33 466 21,217
    4 INT 57 47 60 MCCREERY*SCOTTY CHRISTMAS WITH SCOTTY 426 13 378 13,552
    3 COL 108 88 87 EVANCHO*JACKIE HEAVENLY CHRISTMAS 345 24 278 60,122

  • kidznkatz

    PTXmas #7 with no promo? WOW.
    Pentatonix are magicians. Nobody watched Season 3 of the Sing-Off. They didn’t have the massive exposure that Idol and Voice winners got. They’ve cultivated their fanbase completely on youtube. I remember their first video took a week to get 150k views. Their latest got 2 million in 24 hours. They’re 21 years old, an acappella group, and have done it completely on their own.

  • Jason Gorny

    How many albums have to be sold to achieve Gold or Platinum level in Canada?

  • Jason Gorny

    The song Perfume is good. But I agree, it’s not the best album she’ve made. Maybe it was a mistake to go the route of Britney Jean or having Will.I.Am as a producer.

  • Lexie O’Neill

    I thought the Aircheck article was fascinating, too. Still confused by Mscores, though…how do they know the tune in/tune out?

    I hope the drop in Callout doesn’t hurt anything, but I certainly know the particular sample matters. Can only hope it goes back up.:))

  • Kirsten

    It varies based on the format/unit.

    Albums are 50K for Gold and 100K for Platinum.

    http://www.musiccanada.com/certificationdefinitions.aspx

  • Lexie O’Neill

    A little late in the day, but Roughstock posted country numbers.:))

    LW TW

    19 50 Danielle Bradbery 11K 50K total
    39 70 Scotty McCreery SYT 9K 137K total

    165 116 Scotty McCreery CWSM 7K 375K total
    137 131 Cassadee Pope 6K 110K total
    Kellie Pickler (maybe, it’s messed up) 5K 32K total
    Kelly Clarkson 112K 442K total
    TSOM Soundtrack 38K 38K total

    http://www.roughstock.com/blog/country-album-chart-news-the-week-of-december-11-2013-garth-brooks-duck-dynasty-the-sound-of-music-blake-lady-a-scotty-mccreery/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

  • Lexie O’Neill

    Singles sales are also up at Roughstock (love ‘em:))…only problem is that the chart is really messed up…

    Cassadee Pope…#7 country with 685K total
    Scotty McCreery…#28 with 325K total
    Danielle Bradbery…#36 with 206K total

    http://www.roughstock.com/blog/country-chart-news-the-top-30-digital-singles-december-11-2013-luke-bryan-florida-georgia-line-scotty-mccreery-cassadee-pope-news

  • Jake W.

    I totally agree. He produced most of those songs, which explains why they are so bad. Perfume and Hold On Tight are great.

  • Jason Gorny

    He needs to go away lol

  • Jason Gorny

    So both Christmas special has aired. I’m not seeing any significant change on the iTunes or Amazon chart. Underneath the Tree is moving up the singles chart. Wrapped in Red is #1 on Amazon and #4 on iTunes. The fact that DD hasn’t moved may be good for Kelly will let her take the #1 spot. We will see after the West Coast airing.

  • standtotheright

    I think DD’s base is Walmart physical sales, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the traffic into the stores for Brooks’ GH album helped them. It likely still will. Clarkson is getting the advantage of the Amazon ad so her digital/internet sales should still stay high but how that all shakes out on the BB200 is still very much an open question. I thought she sounded fantastic on the show, FWIW.

  • Jason Gorny

    *bleep walmart* haha it’ll be interesting to see what the number will be like. plus kelly has radio play!

  • Anny_nanny

    40&80

  • Anny_nanny

    Column CD/Cassette/Vinyl/Digital
    *released after May 1, 2008

  • fuzzywuzzy

    I think that you’re right. I noticed a big jump in the DD’s sales when Garth’s sales jumped.