David Archuleta – Revised HDD Numbers – Now Expecting 200-210K Bow

37.6 million fewer than last year? Did I read that right? Wow.

OH, and congrats D!!! Way to go!!!

Good for Archie!!! Now hope Cook puts good numbers up too. Go Davids!

200K (and over) is still great. But now that his numbers have been lowered, he’s closer to my original prediction for his debut

(I thought he’d get 190K at most)

200k is excellent for a new artist these days. Congrats to Archie and crossing my fingers DC can do as well!

Good Job David… I hope his sales keep being high this next week…

anything above 100k is good, over 200k is amazing! wtg David gonna be an awesome debut!

I hate that most all sales are down anymore, according to that article. I miss those larger debuts. And, with the first week numbers down, what will that do for the weeks that follow. I just hope the “reviewers” don’t pick on the idol debuts (our two Davids in particular) without putting it in context with the general state of decline in sales of physical CDs across the board. Sigh.

Yes, Judy, I agree. I hope the writers keep these numbers in context. Context is something sorely missing from most entertainment journalism. I use the term journalism loosely. MJ’s site and others are actually far better at doing that.

I’m sure Cookie will do great!

I hate that most all sales are down anymore, according to that article. I miss those larger debuts. And, with the first week numbers down, what will that do for the weeks that follow. I just hope the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“reviewersà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t pick on the idol debuts (our two Davids in particular) without putting it in context with the general state of decline in sales of physical CDs across the board. Sigh.

If you want to put this in a bit of perspective, Pink bowed with around 190K a few weeks ago, and that was considered very respectable. She has the #1 song on Top 40 radio right now. T-Pain, David’s label-mate who is coming off a very successful last album, will bow with 160-170K. Last week’s #1 pulled in around 170K.

To pull in even half of the big numbers of the past, you have to be one of the following: (1) a cross-genre, cross-market artist like Taylor Swift, (2) a classically popular artist that hasn’t released in a long while, like AC/DC, (3) a rapper with one or two huge current singles (like TI), or (4) an uber-teen act that cross-platforms with TV and/or movies (like Miley or the Jonas Brothers).

Most importantly, you can’t be a debut. Debuts can’t pull in 500K anymore (heck, it was hard for them to do it when times were good). Digital sales changed everything, and the economy isn’t helping either. For an album released this year–a gold album will be considered successful. Platinum is amazing. Double platinum is fan-freakin’-tastic. Anything above that and you’re a major star.

Plus, first week sales are just that–first week sales. The test comes two, three, four weeks down the line. There will be a huge drop-off for both Davids in week 2 (maybe not as much the week of Black Friday), but that’s to be expected with larger than average debuts from debut artists. But true success is if they can maintain respectable numbers–consistency for the win, essentially.

How much did Pink and the others sell for their 2nd week? Just curious. Taylor probably would sell above 200k again next week the way she’s going. Hoping Archie won’t have too big a drop.

:idea_wp:

MJs Big Blog needs to have its own collective review of idol works as they come out. One that is looked forward to as an equal with other reviews. A respected one. A rated one. Detailing context across the board. Etc. etc.

Oh, I dunno, I’m bummed, look over me.

(2nd week drop, now that would be interesting to speculate on E)

Thanks as always soundscene!

How much did Pink and the others sell for their 2nd week? Just curious. Taylor probably would sell above 200k again next week the way sheà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s going. Hoping Archie wonà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t have too big a drop.

Pink sold 73K her second week for a 60% drop-off. She’s looking to drop below 60K this week. Twilight will have a much better time of it this week, with projections to be in the 100-110K range. That’s likely because the movie is out next weekend and there’s a LOT of promotion for it on major broadcast networks. Plus commercials. Most artists’ albums don’t get commercials for several week’s straight.

Archie will have a drop. He might benefit from Cook’s album being released (maybe not so surprisingly, Archie gets a sales bump whenever Cook sells something or gets TV promotion–Archie fans have called in the Cookbump). The week Cook was on SNL, Cook’s album pre-sale rose into the teens, eventually passing Archie’s by one spot. But once they connected, they both rose together. The week Cook’s pre-order was on iTunes, Archie’s Crush sales went up. If you look on Google Trends, the week of SNL, Archie got a nice bump in searches. They travel together… for now. But even a Cookbump can’t take away from the inevitable drop that most artists have second week–especially Idol artists. Archie has Bonnie Hunt that week, but that’s not very much.

I think Cook might have an easier time second week for the mere fact that it’s Thanksgiving weekend (Black Friday). Archie will benefit from that as well.

The Davids have a lot of appearances in the works between now and Christmas, not to mention the Christmas shopping season. Do you think that will have an effect on 2nd, 3rd, 4th week sales? If so, to what extent?

The Davids have a lot of appearances in the works between now and Christmas, not to mention the Christmas shopping season. Do you think that will have an effect on 2nd, 3rd, 4th week sales? If so, to what extent?

For physical CD sales, it should help. They may not get the highest chart positions, but sales could remain more consistent because of the holidays.

I was under the impression that a 56-60% drop the second week is pretty normal for album releases. Then it drops a gain the third week and hopefully starts to stabilize. Both Cook and Archie should see their drops softened by Black Friday though.

Soundscene post #10 interesting point. J Hud is a singer/actress, guess that’s helping her album sales.

I thought the initial estimate from HDD was too high, and even after adjusting it downwards, I suspect it might still be a little too high. It would be great if his album can achieve the predicted sales figure, but even if it misses the lower estimate it would still be a very good number.

I thought the initial estimate from HDD was too high, and even after adjusting it downwards, I suspect it might still be a little too high. It would be great if his album can achieve the predicted sales figure, but even if it misses the lower estimate it would still be a very good number.

Well, HDD’s estimate now is based on three full days of sales. Not just the first day, which is always frontloaded and was a holiday. They have data accounting up through yesterday. That’s enough data to calculate the drop-off from day one and understand how the holiday affected sales. Considering that, I would say that prediction is probably pretty accurate. Although it’s easier to project single sales, that particular portion of HDD underestimated Archie’s first week sales for Crush.

Soundscene, I love your informative posts, and I guess I just wanted to take a moment here and say thanks.

:smile1_tb:

Archie will have a drop. He might benefit from Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s album being released (maybe not so surprisingly, Archie gets a sales bump whenever Cook sells something or gets TV promotionà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’Archie fans have called in the Cookbump). The week Cook was on SNL, Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s album pre-sale rose into the teens, eventually passing Archieà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s by one spot. But once they connected, they both rose together. The week Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s pre-order was on iTunes, Archieà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s Crush sales went up. If you look on Google Trends, the week of SNL, Archie got a nice bump in searches. They travel togetherà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ for now.

What a fascinating phenomenon! Does the flip side hold true as well? That is to say, whenever Archie does a promo, does Cook’s LO/TOML sales and album presales get a bump up?

Soundscene, I love your informative posts, and I guess I just wanted to take a moment here and say thanks.

You’re welcome! And thanks!

What a fascinating phenomenon! Does the flip side hold true as well? That is to say, whenever Archie does a promo, does Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s LO/TOML sales and album presales get a bump up?

I think it benefits Archie more than Cook. I haven’t seen a significant bump for Cook when Archie is promoting. Cook’s pre-order did move up from 36 to 31 today on iTunes, but I would suspect that has more to do with the album leak. Archie got bumped up in pre-orders after his album leaked.

What I think happening is that people see David Cook and they think, “whatever happened to that Archuleta kid?” and they go look him up. Or they see an ad for Cook on iTunes and think, “Does that Archuleta kid have something out?” and they go look him up.

I can’t say why Cook doesn’t get the same bump (or maybe he does and I haven’t noticed).

Just curious, what proportion is physical CD sales nowadays, and are there differences between genres? Someone might have mentioned it somewhere but I can’t remember the figures.

What a fascinating phenomenon! Does the flip side hold true as well? That is to say, whenever Archie does a promo, does Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s LO/TOML sales and album presales get a bump up?

Yes, It has happened in the past, I remember that beeing discussed among Cook fans. One of the times was when Archie’s video was released. TOML got a bump out of it.

I think people just associates the Idols in their heads. When you see one, even if that person wasn’t your favorite, it reminds you of “your” idol and you may seek them out. Makes sense.

Just curious, what proportion is physical CD sales nowadays, and are there differences between genres? Someone might have mentioned it somewhere but I canà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t remember the figures.

I think iTunes is 17% of the market. Walmart is a bit higher than that. But pretty much everything that is not iTunes is physical sales. So physical sales still occupy most of the market.

I think fans of both Davids need to realize that their Week 1′s will benefit heavily from fanbase preorders (especially DC, who’s been collecting them since May). Be ready for a larger than average Week 2 drop – although as soundscene observed, maybe Black Friday weekend and the holidays can break the fall a bit. We can “launch” them but after that, it’s up to the general public whether they take hold.

Field report: I was at a Borders Express yesterday in a small town with a Walmart but no other mass retailers, at least 50 miles away from the nearest Best Buy or other big music outlet. Borders Express does NOT have the media department of a regular Borders, its what used to be called WaldenBooks. However, there was a copy of Archuleta’s CD right at the counter, and the Mom and tweens behind me in line picked it up with interest.

The CD doesn’t get placed in that spot without promotion.