Idol Sales News – Week Ending 11/28/10

This is Black Friday. These are your numbers on Black Friday.

It’s nice to see all the up arrows after a rather depressing HDD week. Every Idol reported so far has had an increase in sales but one. All of those increases are in the double digits. Four of them are in the triple digits. Carrie comes out on top as she marches onto inevitable double platinum. And the Idol Christmas albums start popping up.

The lone Idol to see a decrease is, as expected, Lee. First week debut numbers are always inflated due to pre-orders and a rush to get the album. His drop is 62% which is in the range you would expect for a second week drop. One does expect smaller drops during BF, but this drop is lower on the expected range.

This is the daily numbers thread. Please post numbers as you find them. Thanks!

Idol albums

66 Carrie Underwood “Play On” 18K (+53%; lw 12K ) Total: 1.828M (71)
93 Lee DeWyze “Live It Up” 15K (-62%; lw 38, 581 ) Total: 53K (19)
103 Fantasia “Back to Me” 12K (+25%) Total: 330K
192 Carrie Underwood “Some Hearts” 7K (+144%) Total: 7.048M
Jason Castro “Who I Am” 2K (+148%) Total: 5K
Danny Gokey “My Best Days” 2K (+145%) Total: 194K
Mandisa “Freedom” 1K (+32%) Total: 130K
Mandisa “True Beauty <1K ( +34%) Total: 216K
Chris Sligh “The Anatomy of Broken” <1K (+163%) Total: 5K #51 Billboard Heatseekers
Mandisa “It’s Christmas” <1K (+27%) 24, 000)
Clay Aiken “Merry Christmas With Loveless” <1K ( +53%) Total: 1.414M

Rounded numbers from Brian at Idol Chatter.

About Kirsten 3046 Articles
Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.

307 Comments

  1. I’m not surprised LTT is off the BB200 but where are Fantasia’s numbers?

  2. I am glad to see that Danny had a 145% increase in sales. It’s also nice to see some other idols had increases as well including some over 100%. It looks like they got nice boosts from Black Friday.

  3. His drop is 62% which is in the range you would expect for a second week drop. One does expect smaller drops during BF, but this drop is lower on the expected range.

    What would be the “expected range”? Do you mean that this is a lower drop taking into consideration BF?

  4. I wish there was someway to refrain from using Brian’s chart, initially. He only gets numbers from Top 200, Christian, and Country and it always seems to skew the perspective.

  5. A 62% drop for a 2nd week may seem OK but considering 1) it was Black Friday and 2) Lee already started out with low numbers…and a drop fall the way down to #93 seems bad, no? Ack. What’s the normal position drop for an Idol debut in November?.

  6. I wish there was someway to refrain from using Brian’s chart, initially. He only gets numbers from Top 200, Christian, and Country and it always seems to skew the perspective.

    If that happened, then the only numbers we’d get would be like Carrie’s. And possibly Fantasia’s for a little while longer. (She’s not on Brian’s list right now, but I think that she is still in the BB200) And we’d get numbers for whenever an idol releases new music.

    If we didn’t use Brian’s numbers we would probably only get the numbers for like maybe 3 idols a week. I would rather get the numbers for as many idols we can get them for. Brian does help get numbers for more idols.

  7. What am I missing here? Lee sold 15K last week. Carrie only sold 18K of one album, 7K of other one. Jason and Danny sold 2K each. Mandissa sold 1K, less than 1K, less than 1K. Chris and Clay sold less than 1K each. Compared to the others, besides that 1 album of Carrie’s, Lee sold a LOT of albums last week.

  8. Hi Pollyanna here….. Out of the 47+_k albums sold, 1/3 +_ were Lee. I know he’s getting promo, but I don’t think there were any discounts, and I think most black Friday dollars go to bargains that are limited to certain time frame. Well, I am a fan, and just want to be positive, though I am hoping for ever increasing sales. :)

  9. Ummm…this is the second week Lee’s album has been on sale. And it’s already almost out of the top 100 selling albums. That’s not good anyway you spin it. He needs SS to be a hit.

    You have to pay to see the numbers for albums on/off the BB200. Fans are lucky to get any numbers from Brian.

  10. I wish there was someway to refrain from using Brian’s chart, initially.

    I still weep for the SS leaks we used to get first thing Wednesday morning.

    where are Fantasia’s numbers?

    I’m betting that Brian missed them. She can’t have fallen that much in one week.

    and a drop fall the way down to #93 seems bad, no? Ack.

    That is a bit steep, but the differences between the numbers get smaller the further you drop (e.g. there are tens of thousands separating albums in the top 5 while just tens or hundreds in the 150-200 range). Still, at this rate it could be out of the top 200 before Christmas (unless that single really takes off).

    What would be the “expected range”?

    Second week drops are typically 60-70% range these days. One would hope for less of a drop during BF.

  11. Carrie’s big rise in sales is probably because of her appearance on the country awards show. Lee’s lack of sales is not good, and he needs to get new fans — not just the ones that voted non-stop for him.

  12. What am I missing here? Lee sold 15K last week. Carrie only sold 18K of one album, 7K of other one. Jason and Danny sold 2K each. Mandissa sold 1K, less than 1K, less than 1K. Chris and Clay sold less than 1K each. Compared to the others, besides that 1 album of Carrie’s, Lee sold a LOT of albums last week.

    That is not a lot of albums for only the second week of sales. Most of the other albums have been available for a year or more. Lee dropped over 70 spots on the BB200…i can’t recall when I’ve ever seen that for an idol artist in week 2 (not saying it hasn’t happened — maybe Alli? — but i can’t recall it)…there is no way to spin this…it just isn’t good….but it was not unexpected…i am sure that RCA had a very good sense of what kind of sales to expected and prepared Lee for it

  13. What am I missing here? Lee sold 15K last week. Carrie only sold 18K of one album, 7K of other one.

    The problem is that Lee’s only on his second week of sales and Carrie’s latest has been out over a year. The vast majority of albums see their biggest sales in the first few weeks, so the idea that Carrie is outselling him already is not good.

    On the bright side, new artists often see lower sales at first and then have album sales rise with the success of their singles. So if SS could get going, and he gets another single that is also successful, he may sell albums over time.

  14. I’m all for positive spin but uh comparing Lee and some Idols who’s albums have been out for several months? Not that logical.

  15. I wish there was someway to refrain from using Brian’s chart, initially. He only gets numbers from Top 200, Christian, and Country and it always seems to skew the perspective.

    The numbers will only be skewed by those who want to skew them. I doubt that too many people are thinking that Danny sold 2000 albums, while Adam didn’t sell any. Or, that Kris’ album hasn’t at least been selling 500-1000 copies over the last few months.

  16. Brian edited his post, and included numbers for Fantasia and the BB position for Some Hearts:

    Fantasia, Back to Me (12,000, +25%, 330,000) (#103 BB200)

    Carrie Underwood, Some Hearts (7,000, +144%, 7.048 million) (#192 BB200)

  17. Not bad at all for Fanny. She should stay in the double digits all through the holidays, making 350K a lock and giving her a shot at clearing 400K by the 1st of the year. Plus she still has some strong single choices left on that album. Gold is looking quite possible. Is she eligible for a Grammy nom this year? If she gets one of those, this era can go very very well.

  18. Glad to see that Danny had a nice increase and continues to sneak up on the 200,000 sales milestone. Maybe that amazon sale helped some.

  19. Just for comparisons, Allison’s album sold 14k in Week 2. Seems Lee is following her numbers pretty closely so far, and that’s not a good thing.

  20. Looks like the #200 album sold a little under 7K this week. There are probably tons of Xmas albums clogging up the BB200 as well so some albums off the BB200 could return in January.

    Fantasia is eligible for a Grammy and I’d be surprised if she didn’t get nominated. I think she and Carrie are locks and Adam could get a nod for Male Vocal, Pop for WWFM.

  21. Ok…for comparison purposes: Danny (My Best Days) has been available for 39 weeks, so an average of 4974 albums sold a week; Mandissa (Freedom) has been available for 91 weeks, so an average of 1429 albums sold a week; Chris (The Anatomy of the Broken) has been out for 11 weeks, so an average of 454 albums sold a week. Carrie is way beyond being compared to just about anyone. Christmas albums are always going to sell more at this time of the year…they are all front and center in the Christmas music displays at every store. Lee (Live It Up) has been available for 2 weeks, so an average of 26,500 albums sold a week. Hey, I might really like spinning!

  22. Fantasia is eligible for a Grammy and I’d be surprised if she didn’t get nominated. I think she and Carrie are locks and Adam could get a nod for Male Vocal, Pop for WWFM.

    That all sounds plausible. That would be fantastic for all 3 of them, and for the franchise. I’m really pulling for Fanny and Adam to get nods.

  23. Ok…for comparison purposes: Danny (My Best Days) has been available for 39 weeks, so an average of 4974 albums sold a week; [..] Lee (Live It Up) has been available for 2 weeks, so an average of 26,500 albums sold a week. Hey, I might really like spinning!

    Lol, great effort :) To spin apples to other ~apples, though, over its first two weeks Danny’s album sold ~45k albums/week…in March.

  24. Fantasia’s album sales have been pretty solid. I think that she could continue to do well. Especially if she releases something like “Man of The House” as her third single.

  25. Brian edited his post, and included numbers for Fantasia and the BB position for Some Hearts:

    Thanks. I’ll add them to the post.

  26. It’s pretty easy to see which artists are getting label push for Grammy noms. Florence and the Machine has been everywhere, Bruno Mars and Kesha and Beiber. I’ve already accepted that there is probably not a big enough push for Pop Male Vocal for Adam this year. I can see Fantasia and Carrie definitely.

  27. To get a true comparison, sarah14, you’d compare Lee’s sales to the 2nd week sales of each of the other albums mentioned. Carrie’s two albums have each sold in the millions already (one is several years old, the other one 1-1/2 years old), so they would not be expected to sell more (but one did). Jason and Danny didn’t win; Danny’s album is about a year old, and Jason’s is weeks old. Mandisa wasn’t a high finisher her year, nor was Chris Sligh; Clay’s album is several years old. The expectations are different for those not in the top 2 than someone who won. Other winners in their second week have sold multiples of what he did, most in the hundreds of thousands.

  28. over its first two weeks Danny’s album sold ~45k albums/week

    The stats in the thread headline are showing 1 week sales and then total sold since release, not the first 2 weeks of sales for each idol so that is why I did the comparisons above. Again, just my spin on it as everyone else has a spin.

  29. It’s pretty easy to see which artists are getting label push for Grammy noms.

    I think the hardcore visible lobbying thing goes on for the big awards. For something like male pop vocal, I don’t know if we’d see much of that politicing, if any indeed goes on. I think he has a shot there.

  30. The stats in the thread headline are showing 1 week sales and then total sold since release, not the first 2 weeks of sales for each idol so that is why I did the comparisons above. Again, just my spin on it as everyone else has a spin.

    That’s not spin honey, that’s fiction. Everyone sells more albums in the first few weeks, everyone. No exceptions. Comparing overall sales to first week sales is like taking the baseball stats from one season an averaging them out over the entire lifetime of the player. There’s just no logic in that. Lee *barely* outsold William Hung, a national joke.

    In the “things that are good for Lee column” you can put:
    – won American Idol
    – got a record deal
    – sold more records than most of us ever will
    – currently has a single being marketed

    But you can’t put these first week numbers, they’re just bad. It doesn’t mean his career is over, necessarily, but it does mean he has a lot of work to do if he’s going to stay in the record business.

  31. According to this MSN article, Bruno Mars is not eligible.

    http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/40432694/ns/today-entertainment/

    Also Janelle Monae! I thought she had that locked. I think Florence + The Machine will take the “obscure critical darling” spot now. LOL Mumford & Sons or Vampire Weekend will get the cred rock band spot. Drake is a given. Beiber or Ke$sha will get the “pop act that sold a lot of records” spot. Heh. After that I have no clue. Should be fun tonight.

  32. Bruno isn’t eligible for Best New Artist, but I think he can still get a nom for Best Male Pop. If so, he’ll probably win it.

    I think Florence + The Machine will take the “obscure critical darling” spot now.

    Good thing the voters cast ‘critical darling’ ballots before Glee did their song, LOL.

  33. What am I missing here? Lee sold 15K last week. Carrie only sold 18K of one album, 7K of other one. Jason and Danny sold 2K each. Mandissa sold 1K, less than 1K, less than 1K. Chris and Clay sold less than 1K each. Compared to the others, besides that 1 album of Carrie’s, Lee sold a LOT of albums last week.

    Out of the 47+_k albums sold, 1/3 +_ were Lee. I know he’s getting promo, but I don’t think there were any discounts, and I think most black Friday dollars go to bargains that are limited to certain time frame.

    Clay’s Xmas album is 6 years old, and is still priced at $9.99.Jason’s new one is $9.99 too. They’ve had no national promo, so you can’t compare.
    Dropping so much in your second week, which happens to be Black Friday week is not good.

  34. I’m not really good at looking up the old numbers, but there are people here who are. I just know from memory that compared to the second week numbers of any prior #1 or #2 from Idol, these are far and away the lowest. Even some #3 and below performers sold more. And that holds even if you correct for drops in the market.

  35. I’m not really good at looking up the old numbers, but there are people here who are. I just know from memory that compared to the second week numbers of any prior #1 or #2 from Idol, these are far and away the lowest. Even some #3 and below performers sold more. And that holds even if you correct for drops in the market.

    Lee’s numbers are probably on par with Diana DeGarmo’s. But, the most important questions are, is RCA invested in Lee, and will they continue to promote him despite his small AI fanbase. And, will 19 actually get up, and get Lee some public appearances.

  36. A 62% drop for a 2nd week may seem OK but considering 1) it was Black Friday and 2) Lee already started out with low numbers…and a drop fall the way down to #93 seems bad, no? Ack. What’s the normal position drop for an Idol debut in November?.

    I think a 62% drop, percentage-wise, is pretty good, since that is more of a “normal drop”, whereas Idol albums usually open huge and suffer from a bigger percentage drop more in the 70s? Then again, Lee didn’t open huge, so that explains it. As for BB positions, though, that’s pretty bad. David stayed in a top 10 for a few weeks, I recall, and both Adam and Kris each dropped only ~10 spots on their second week. If Lee drops out of the BB200 before Christmas, that would really blow.

  37. And, will 19 actually get up, and get Lee some public appearances.

    Who is to say that they haven’t been trying? Maybe the media just isn’t interested in AI and/or Lee? Or maybe they don’t wish to cash in those favors this year?

  38. Good thing the voters cast ‘critical darling’ ballots before Glee did their song, LOL.

    I think if Glee ever dominated the Grammy nominations like they do the ITunes charts every Wednesday then you would hear the collective sound of the entire music industry weeping into their cheerios every morning. LMAO.

  39. Danny (My Best Days) has been available for 39 weeks, so an average of 4974 albums sold a week; Mandissa (Freedom) has been available for 91 weeks, so an average of 1429 albums sold a week; Chris (The Anatomy of the Broken) has been out for 11 weeks, so an average of 454 albums sold a week. Carrie is way beyond being compared to just about anyone. Christmas albums are always going to sell more at this time of the year…they are all front and center in the Christmas music displays at every store. Lee (Live It Up) has been available for 2 weeks, so an average of 26,500 albums sold a week. Hey, I might really like spinning!

    Well I would say that the interesting point of comparison would be to divide Lee’s total number sold by 39 in 39 weeks time, but – and I might be just projecting negatively here – I think that might be a bit mean :lol

    Look, the man’s first two weeks of sales just suck, in comparison to every other Idol winner and most runners up. They suck even bigger for an Idol winner if you take Kris out of the picture.

    It might all change – he might get that one break out single that everyone loves.

    But it doesn’t change the fact that so far they suck.

  40. On another note: I hope Florence and The Machine do well at the Grammys! Still loving that album.

  41. Just for comparisons, Allison’s album sold 14k in Week 2. Seems Lee is following her numbers pretty closely so far, and that’s not a good thing.

    That’s true, even though the comparison isn’t quite fair since Allison released her CD on December 1, 2009, missing BF sales for that year.

  42. I personally don’t think the Glee stuff should be up for Grammy consideration; at least in the major categories. I don’t know if there’s a section for TV stuff or not but they aren’t really working artists in the sense that the others are. I do realize some are releasing music seperate from the series and that is different; but the big push they receive through the show isn’t really a legit output for Grammy purposes.

    Clay’s album name is Merry Christmas with Loveless? Kind of a mishmash with a country singer ala Patty? An ode to those who humbug the tinsel? A misprint? :-)

    I’m preparing myself for Beebs fever for the Grammys. I think a little raspberry Stoli straight up might get me through it….

  43. Lee’s guitar player said last night that the bands last gig together for the year will be the upcoming Florida show,but later added he’ll go on tour with Lee next year. The band not having any shows the rest of the year makes me think Lee won’t be doing the Fox New Years special, another thing winners have done the last few years and he’s being left out of. I’m still pissed about him not even presenting at the AMA’s.

  44. I personally don’t think the Glee stuff should be up for Grammy consideration; at least in the major categories. I don’t know if there’s a section for TV stuff or not but they aren’t really artists in the sense that the others are

    Weren’t there interviews with Ryan Murphy saying they’re going to start doing original music soon? If they had an original song sung by say Lea Michele or Matt Morrison, (or both or something), I could see that getting a Grammy nod. But all these TV show covers… I don’t think so– hope not, anyway.

  45. negativo:
    Just for comparisons, Allison’s album sold 14k in Week 2. Seems Lee is following her numbers pretty closely so far, and that’s not a good thing.

    Especially since most consider that Allison’s album pretty much flopped. It may be premature to say that about Lee’s, but the time for it seems to be getting closer.

  46. fadetowhite:
    12/01/2010 at 10:41 am
    On another note: I hope Florence and The Machine do well at the Grammys! Still loving that album.

    Me too! Whenever my playlist starts playing one of her songs, I end up going down a rabbit hole and play a big chunk of the album. Yup, still loving it almost a year later!

  47. Lee could still appear on fox nye show. Maybe he will just do an acoustic performance. Since so many of his jingle balls are acoustic shows maybe they didn’t think it made sense to keep the band together – those guys need to be free to make $$ from other gigs. Curious to know what kind of touring they have in mind for lee. I’m guessing as an opener with some smaller solo shows mixed in like Danny and Kris.

  48. His drop is 62% which is in the range you would expect for a second week drop. One does expect smaller drops during BF, but this drop is lower on the expected range.

    Kris dropped -59% last year (same release schedule and Week 2 last year was up 45% in sales).

    Cook dropped -60% the year before on the same schedule.

    Seems like -62% would be just about the expected range to me. And that is not a good sign to me. Tracking just like an Idol winner’s album.

    Lee is tracking to be around 170K total units sold right now — so even if his sales defy gravity, he will have a hard time clearing 200K.

    I doubt that promotion will help much now, but also doubt that RCA will invest much more in this album at this point. They will just look for ways to monetize the investment that do not cost much.

  49. Lee’s guitar player said last night that the bands last gig together for the year will be the upcoming Florida show,but later added he’ll go on tour with Lee next year.

    It will be interesting what type of tour RCA sets up for Lee and when it will start. Has there been any word on if he will do the Southeast Asia tour like previous winners and/or runner-ups have done in the past.

  50. There’s not really any logical way to spin Lee’s numbers and make them look good. it is what it is. I don’t believe the single can sell much, I just hope the guy can go on tour and find a good band to open to. On his own he can’t probably sell venues over 300.

    On another note: I hope Florence and The Machine do well at the Grammys! Still loving that album.

    Other than song categories what other categories could she be up to? her album has been out since, idk, but I’m sure in February or March of 2009 I was already listening to songs from it, so can it be eligible?

  51. Other than song categories what other categories could she be up to? her album has been out since, idk, but I’m sure in February or March of 2009 I was already listening to songs from it, so can it be eligible?

    Even though the album is old, she can still get Best New Artist, along with Lady A.

  52. Cook dropped -60% the year before on the same schedule.

    Oh, for some reason I thought he dropped in the 70 range, %-wise. I probably inflated it in my head because I remember being disappointed at the time that he didn’t drop less due to Black Friday. Ahhh expectations. Haha. I was such a newb back then.

  53. I remember years ago being told (AND I HAVE NO IDEA IF THIS IS TRUE) that if you want a rough estimate of an album’s sales potential you take the 2 week total and x2 will be the low end with x4 being the high end. Most releases (AGAIN I DON”T KNOW IF THIS IS TRUE) end up falling in that range of total sales when all is said and done, unless the albums spawns tons of hits and displays longer than usual longevity.

    So, that would put Lee in the 108K-216K range of total expected sales, unless he takes off in a big way.

    I suppose I could go back and randomly pick a dozen albums that are dunzo to test the theory, but we all know I am way too lazy for that. :D

  54. Even though the album is old, she can still get Best New Artist, along with Lady A.

    Thanks :)

    So, that would put Lee in the 108K-216K range of total expected sales, unless he takes off in a big way.

    If the single doesn’t take off I can’t see it selling more than 150K (and I’m being nice with that number). I think idol may give him a little bit of a bump, but not something big.

  55. I think that low end being 2x the 2-week sales and high end being 4x the high end sales theory fits for the recent Idol debut albums, anyway. Kris and Adam’s current totals are between 2.5 and 3x their 2-week totals and Danny’s is a little more than 2x his 2-week total (I think, going off top of my head trying to remember the 2-week #s)

  56. Someone said on Twitter David spent 4 weeks in the Top 10. That’s not the norm for winners, so Lee certainly shouldn’t be held to that standard but IMO a drop by 70 spots is no matter how you spin it.

  57. Someone said on Twitter David spent 4 weeks in the Top 10. That’s not the norm for winners,

    Actually, I think it is. Well, the norm for the top seller that year anyway. That’s not always the winner. But staying in the top 10 (or at least the top 20) all through Christmas was quite common for at least one person until last year. I’m not too sure about Jordin, but I think she did pull off top 20 for at least part of the holidays.

  58. It’s just hard to put a positive spin on lee’s numbers. Unless he gets a big bump this week, his 3-week totals will be less than what Kris sold his 1st week — and if he gets the expected 25% drop this week, then his 3-week totals would be less than what Danny sold in his 1st week.

    Still, none of this means his career is over or that RCA will stop promoting him. Just that he’s off to a really rough start.

  59. Actually, I think it is. Well, the norm for the top seller that year anyway. That’s not always the winner. But staying in the top 10 (or at least the top 20) all through Christmas was quite common for at least one person until last year.

    That’s what I meant earlier when I said I was a newb to have been slightly disappointed at the time at David’s 60% second week drop, when I should’ve been thrilled he was still well within the top 10. The standards were different. I think at that time we were constantly looking at what Daughtry had done– the guy stayed in the top 10 for what seemed like an eternity, and climbed its way to #1 during the doldrums of January, and I believe even got back on the top 10 the first couple times it dropped off. And then of course it was on BB200 for like, years, lol. So yeah. Different standards at that time.

    Sure, Lee’s sales look pretty bad compared to David, and even Kris- but hey, at least he’s not being compared to sales like Daughtry or Carrie…

  60. well, i think that a drop of 62% is still close to the usual drop for 2nd week sales. also, it’s not like he’s constantly on any high profile shows or guestings as of late. he just started again with his christmas promo, making rounds to the different radio stations. hopefully, the exposure will gain new fans who’ll check out the album. he’s now #29 on the HAC chart so i guess this means that he is still moving in the right direction, getting airplay. i know there are some who would just love to get a dig in, predict the end, proclaim failure etc. but at the end of the day, you realize what’s important is that they are trying to make the music that they love & getting a much larger exposure than before. wish them all the best!

  61. I’ve changed my mind – Crystal is going to outsell Lee by a significant margin. She may not set the world on fire, but she certainly has more than 50k fans who will buy her album in the first two weeks. It’s inconceivable that she would sell less than that.

  62. I think at that time we were constantly looking at what Daughtry had done–

    sma11ie, there was a lot of that going on then – comparing 2006 to 2008 – it’s taken a while for the context to be considered. There seems to be more thoughtful analysis happening lately – not so much rush to judgement.

    In my observation, of course. ;)

  63. Brian_C82:
    12/01/2010 at 12:32 pm
    I’ve changed my mind – Crystal is going to outsell Lee by a significant margin. She may not set the world on fire, but she certainly has more than 50k fans who will buy her album in the first two weeks. It’s inconceivable that she would sell less than that.

    Its not entirely unlikely.. but in the short term she has had very little publicity so far. In the long term she would need a hit HAC to prop up whatever numbers she has. At this point I’m not convinced that her fan base is larger, although the ones she has (at least seen here) seem more committed.

  64. sma11ie, there was a lot of that going on then – comparing 2006 to 2008 – it’s taken a while for the context to be considered. There seems to be more thoughtful analysis happening lately – not so much rush to judgement.

    In 2008, a lot of us knew the CD market was shrinking, and Idol was getting old/losing steam, but didn’t quite believe it was that bad, moreover, neither situation was that dire- yet. Now, both seem pretty dire– particularly the latter, IMO, and particularly with relatively buzz-free Season 9. I think the majority of the commenters here realize that it would be insane to compare 2010 sales to 2008 sales. Two years ago, we still thought we could compare somewhat industry-adjusted 2008 sales with 2006 and 2005 blockbuster years.

  65. What am I missing here? Lee sold 15K last week.[snip] Compared to the others, besides that 1 album of Carrie’s, Lee sold a LOT of albums last week.

    Really? Carrie’s album dropped November 3, 2009. She sold 3K *more* than an album that dropped November 16,2010.

    Last year, Allison dropped 55% her second week. She sold 14K her second week. She sold 46K in two weeks. Lee’s sold 53K. Maybe Lee’s fanbase is comparable to Allison’s. Maybe that’s the comparison to make — because clearly, his base does not look like Kris’s or Adam’s.

  66. I feel bad for Lee, any way you slice it, descending 70 spots on bb200 is bad. Last year, second week Kris fell 20 spots to #31 and Adam fell 19 spots to #22.

    Hopefully Sweet Serendipity will be a hit or maybe his next single. I think that RCA isn’t going to give up on him so soon. He seems like a sweet guy, I’d love to see him have some success.

  67. Brian_C82:
    12/01/2010 at 12:32 pm
    I’ve changed my mind – Crystal is going to outsell Lee by a significant margin. She may not set the world on fire, but she certainly has more than 50k fans who will buy her album in the first two weeks. It’s inconceivable that she would sell less than that.

    I just don’t see it. She’s had even less publicity than Lee, and we are two weeks away from her album coming out. I think it’s conceivable that her first week numbers will be less than 30,000.

  68. CindyM:
    12/01/2010 at 12:42 pm
    Album sales for FYE up:

    Adam Lambert, For Your Entertainment (4,000, +19%, 762,000) lol Brian wrote IIHY instead of FYE http://tinyurl.com/34u858p

    Also, Daughtry numbers:

    Daughtry, Leave This Town (5,000, +17%, 1.188 million)

    4,000 for Adam and 5,000 album sells for Daughtry is great. Both had increases, hopefully they will keep it up during the holidays.

  69. Last year, Allison dropped 55% her second week. She sold 14K her second week. She sold 46K in two weeks. Lee’s sold 53K. Maybe Lee’s fanbase is comparable to Allison’s. Maybe that’s the comparison to make — because clearly, his base does not look like Kris’s or Adam’s.

    This. Lee may struggle to clear 100k at this rate.

  70. I’ve changed my mind – Crystal is going to outsell Lee by a significant margin. She may not set the world on fire, but she certainly has more than 50k fans who will buy her album in the first two weeks. It’s inconceivable that she would sell less than that.

    What Crystal has going for her that Lee did not is many Casey fans (myself included) had Crystal as their #2 on the show. I’ve seen several Casey fans talking about Crystal’s album coming out and plan on buying it. Crystal has the Casey fans that will purchase her CD while they wait for Casey’s. So, I can see her outselling Lee initially. Long term is still TBD…but I think Crystal has better material on her album from what I’ve heard. IMHO.

  71. I just don’t see it. She’s had even less publicity than Lee, and we are two weeks away from her album coming out. I think it’s conceivable that her first week numbers will be less than 30,000.

    Factoring in everything, I’m expecting about that too. I hope that it’s more, but I have a feeling that it won’t be.

  72. but in the short term she has had very little publicity so far. In the long term she would need a hit HAC to prop up whatever numbers she has. At this point I’m not convinced that her fan base is larger, although the ones she has (at least seen here) seem more committed.

    “committed”.. i guess you could say that. some of them sure like predicting alot. we all shall see in a few weeks. nice to have archives to look back on, sweet memories, huh? best of luck to her! ;)

  73. So, I can see her outselling Lee initially. Long term is still TBD

    Crystal may sell more the first week because it will coincide with one of the busiest weeks of the year, but overall, she is likely to also sell very little, and she won’t be helped by having only two weeks of pre-Christmas sales. Unless Jive decides to promote FD to radio, that will be it.

  74. What Crystal has going for her that Lee did not is many Casey fans (myself included) had Crystal as their #2 on the show.

    Hmm… I like Crystal and rooted for her on AI (though I also like Lee when he’s on pitch), so I’m asking out of genuine curiousity– where were these Casey fans’ support for Crystal after he got voted off? A lot of veteran Idol watchers will tell you the winner is often the contestant who inherits the most fans from the 3rd, and maybe also 4th place finisher. A lot of people attribute Kris Allen’s win with inheriting Danny’s voters.

  75. It’s inconceivable that she would sell less than that.

    At this point, I’m not sure anything’s inconceivable when it comes to sinking AI music sales. lol

  76. Is Crystal’s album even any good? My husband really liked her on the show but he always looks at me like I have two heads when I buy an Idol alum’s songs that aren’t played on the radio (see Iraheta, Allison). And despite his liking LLWD, he wouldn’t even cross the road to see Kris in concert when I went to the Lifehouse concert.

    I’m thinking of getting Crystal’s album for my husband for Christmas, but don’t know if it’s gonna suck. He likes what I call “Music for the Catatonic” like Colbie Caillait and Jack Johnson. So what do you think?

  77. Lol, great effort :) To spin apples to other ~apples, though, over its first two weeks Danny’s album sold ~45k albums/week…in March.

    Yes, Sarah, you really don’t want to compare Lee’s sales- the Winner with it’s promotion and debut during the biggest shopping season of the year- to Danny- a third place finisher who had 0 promotion until his AI appearance in a much lower sales month of March. Even if you take Danny’s Idol bump out he was predicted by HDD to sell 45-50k the first week, so his albums sold per week the first two weeks were 35-39k- significantly higher than Lee even without winner’s promo and Black Friday.

    Not trying to beat up on Lee at all, just saying I don’t think you can spin those numbers to a positive. The 62% drop isn’t bad if it didn’t involve Black Friday.

  78. Someone said on Twitter David spent 4 weeks in the Top 10.

    DCTR bounced around a bit, but was in the top 10 for six of it’s first ten weeks. It didn’t drop below 93 until week 34.

    At this point it looks like a real possibility that LIU will be out of the BB200 by the time radio play unfreezes in January. I’m really wondering how much effort/money RCA is going to be willing to put into pushing SS to radio for a record that has fallen out of the BB200 at a time when record sales are at their lowest point of the year?

    Nothing against Crystal here, but I’d be really surprised if she outsells Lee’s first week. He outsold her during the season by a pretty sizable margin.

  79. I’m thinking the Dancing With The Stars performance by Kyle and Lacey to IIHY on the finale, plus Adam’s True Hollywood Story ran like 5 times last week, so maybe that too? IIHY was probably the only single showing in Itunes Top 200 itunes store last week.

  80. Good news for Adam! FYE continues to sell steadily and yay for IIHY! I believe THS has something to do with the album sales increase and possibly the bit of press about the acoustic EP. But IIHY can only be due to radio play right? Who knows how well this song could have done if radio had kept it in high rotation?

  81. Hmm… I like Crystal and rooted for her on AI (though I also like Lee when he’s on pitch), so I’m asking out of genuine curiousity– where were these Casey fans’ support for Crystal after he got voted off?

    Good point.

    Although, I’m one of those Casey/Crystal fans Chearts mentioned. I did vote for Crystal after finale, but have become disillusioned with voting S9 so didn’t really power vote for her. But a fellow Danny fan said the album is good so I may check it out, especially if the price is right.

    Perhaps there are other fans like that who weren’t moved to power vote but may buy her music? IDK, I really have no sense of whether she will outsell Lee.

  82. Nothing against Crystal here, but I’d be really surprised if she outsells Lee’s first week. He outsold her during the season by a pretty sizable margin.

    if i remember correctly, didn’t lee outsell everyone, even having a higher number despite combining the total of all the other idols in his season? i wonder if jive has anything spectacular planned in the next 2 weeks leading to the album drop? i’m inquiring, i honestly don’t follow her that much & don’t know her schedule.

  83. He likes what I call “Music for the Catatonic” like Colbie Caillait and Jack Johnson. So what do you think?

    Sounds about the same category, more folk than Colbie? As for sucking, well it’s not leaked yet so the final product has not been heard, except for FD that was played on the radio. (Was HO the final version?) Crystal’s fans who are familiar with the pre-Idol material don’t think it sucks though.

    I’m sure Lee’s fans don’t think his album sucks either, so there’s that. Or maybe they do, which would account for the low sales.

  84. Great posts, twinkle80, ITA.

    Allison tanked because she couldn’t get radio to play her music, at all. I know HAC has fewer stations and sells less music than Pop, but Lee is moving up the HAC chart at 29. Four new stations have started playing him in the last couple days;The MIX in Chicago, that he did the Hard Rock gig for, has been playing him in the new music hour-now they are playing him at other times,so hopefully he will soon be added there.
    Lee sold what was predicted; dunno why anyone is shocked (shocked!) at the numbers. None of his fans are trying to say the numbers are good.
    Congratulations to Danny on his increase. He was wise to go into a genre where a larger percentage of fans actually buy CDs. I’m not a Danny fan or a country fan, but he is an excellent singer and I wish him the best.

    ETA There are some Casey-Crystal fans here, but realistically, most of the Casey fans who continued to vote, voted for Lee. If you put any faith in Dial Idol, the results weren’t even close.

  85. What Crystal has going for her that Lee did not is many Casey fans (myself included) had Crystal as their #2 on the show. I’ve seen several Casey fans talking about Crystal’s album coming out and plan on buying it.

    This could be true, but last year it was said that Danny would do better than Kris, because he would have the support of a lot of Adam’s fans. This year, it was said that Lee would do better than Kris, or better than the low expectations, because he has a lot of the same fans as David Cook.

    I think a truer statement would be that within certain circles (or message and fan boards) Crystal and Casey have many of the same fans. While this is true, given that Casey hasn’t exactly been creating a lot of buzz, and Casey having to deal with some of the same obstacles as Lee and Crystal, I don’t see this translating to a significant number of people buying Crystal’s album.

  86. Hmm… I like Crystal and rooted for her on AI (though I also like Lee when he’s on pitch), so I’m asking out of genuine curiousity– where were these Casey fans’ support for Crystal after he got voted off? A lot of veteran Idol watchers will tell you the winner is often the contestant who inherits the most fans from the 3rd, and maybe also 4th place finisher. A lot of people attribute Kris Allen’s win with inheriting Danny’s voters.

    Casey fans enthusiasm got deflated after he left? They didn’t “power vote”? I know I only voted for maybe 10 minutes during the finale for Crystal. Votes don’t usually = sales. One of the reasons why I dislike the voting system on AI. LOL!!

  87. twinkle80:
    12/01/2010 at 1:26 pm
    if i remember correctly, didn’t lee outsell everyone, even having a higher number despite combining the total of all the other idols in his season? i wonder if jive has anything spectacular planned in the next 2 weeks leading to the album drop? i’m inquiring, i honestly don’t follow her that much & don’t know her schedule.

    I don’t know what they have planned, but I wouldn’t be surprised if she sold 25K the first week. She’s barely selling on Amazon or Itunes, so I am not expecting big numbers.

  88. It’s inconceivable

    Inigo Montoya: You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

  89. This could be true, but last year it was said that Danny would do better than Kris, because he would have the support of a lot of Adam’s fans. This year, it was said that Lee would do better than Kris, or better than the low expectations, because he has a lot of the same fans as David Cook.

    I think this goes to show that active/vocal fangroups on the Internet are but a small representative of the whole picture when it comes to album sales. Sometimes that small representative can shed some light into the rest of the casual audience, but often it has no correlation whatsoever. LOL, so basically, it’s hard to know anything, based on the Internet is what I’m saying… I think

  90. I rarely watched AI last season and didn’t vote at all. Bought one itunes song (Crystal’s). Will buy Crystal’s cd and maybe Casey’s if I like it.

  91. I’m thinking of getting Crystal’s album for my husband for Christmas, but don’t know if it’s gonna suck.

    I’m sure that it will be available for listening on AOL.com the week before it is released.

  92. This could be true, but last year it was said that Danny would do better than Kris, because he would have the support of a lot of Adam’s fans.

    Really?? Where did you hear that? I have never had that impression. Most Danny fans are under the impression that Danny doesn’t share a fan base with either of the S8 top two. One reason he went out at third of course. If he shares with anyone; it appears to be Matt Giraud and Michael Sarver.

    She’s barely selling on Amazon or Itunes, so I am not expecting big numbers.

    Good point; if her fans aren’t buying her single and she sold less than Lee on AI, it is difficult to argue she will outsell him.

    Sounds good that Chicago is playing Lee now.

  93. 2nd week sales for Gokey —

    Danny Gokey “My Best Days” 24K (-63%; lw 65K) Total: 90K (the album)

    Danny Gokey “My Best Days Are Ahead of Me” 12K (-55%) Total: 70K — digital download

    What’s the last download number for Sweet Serendipity? It fell of the SS200 digital tracks. It’ll be interesting to see if that can sell on its own — off radio and VH1 play. Last year, Kris had steady organic and weekly growth off his single.

  94. That’s what I meant earlier when I said I was a newb to have been slightly disappointed at the time at David’s 60% second week drop, when I should’ve been thrilled he was still well within the top 10. The standards were different. I think at that time we were constantly looking at what Daughtry had done

    So, so true. At the time, the expectation seemed to be that he would be another Daughtry-like insta-success. And the fact that Archie had a pop hit made it all seem so much more urgent. Now all the hubbub just looks silly.

    I don’t know what they have planned, but I wouldn’t be surprised if she sold 25K the first week.

    I’m not expecting much out of Crystal either. I think she might have a shot of matching Lee’s sales just because she’s releasing during a busy week. I guess it depends on her promo in part. I wonder what they have planned.

  95. He didn’t fall? Inconceivable!

    Inigo Montoya: You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

    LOL

  96. I’m surprised that Gokey seems to have gotten the biggest % increase from Black Friday. And I thought the ETHS would give FYE a biggest boost. I think only shows that feature the music like DWTS or Idol actually do much for sales.

    Over the past three years expectations for Idol winners have been significantly lowered. From hope they sell like Daughtry to hope they go gold to hope they sell 150K (fingers crossed). Yikes.

    I think Crystal will do better than Lee but not a heck of alot better.

  97. I can’t access iTunes right now. When did FD become available for sale?

  98. I think she might have a shot of matching Lee’s sales just because she’s releasing during a busy week.

    Thats just it.. its a busy week. From a marketing perspective I think it would be very tough to launch a new product and get sound bites a week & a half before christmas. On the upside she won’t miss out on the post christmas iTunes gift card sell-a-thon.

  99. LOL, so basically, it’s hard to know anything, based on the Internet is what I’m saying… I think

    I think that some figures can give an idea of the size of the core fanbase: idol songs sales, immediate post idol twitter followers, Amazon and ITunes pre-sales, official website member count.
    For example, Casey has 16000 followers at present, Crystal has 25000 followers, but she is female and it may make a difference, Lee has 58000. As a comparison, Kris had about 90000 followers after the Idol tour.
    My guess is that Casey has a very small fanbase, Crystal not sure, she may have fans who don’t like twitter, but other figures like post idol sales and album pre-orders would indicate that she doesn’t have a large fanbase.

  100. I’m surprised that Gokey seems to have gotten the biggest % increase from Black Friday.

    Isn’t this the week that the AMA’s count in sales. I think Danny’s main sales boost is from the orange carpet gig.

  101. And I thought the ETHS would give FYE a biggest boost. I think only shows that feature the music like DWTS or Idol actually do much for sales.

    But I tend to think Fantasia’s reality show on VH1 has helped this era a lot. I think maybe because the VH1 demographic is at least slighly more music-oriented. Or at least more R&B listeners, so it coincided with Fantasia’s audience somewhat. The E! audience is mostly your average pop culture fanatic who reads US Weekly and People but may buy more than a couple albums a year. Just my guess.

  102. I can’t access iTunes right now. When did FD become available for sale?

    The album is there for preorder, the single isn’t there yet

  103. Does anyone know (who am I kidding? Of course someone will know) what happened to Adam’s album sales after WWFM took off as a single?

    And WTH is Crystal’s single? Doesn’t her album drop on the 14th? What are they waiting for, Christmas?

    Wait, that doesn’t sound right….

  104. 2nd week sales for Gokey — also showed a 55% drop, like Allison’s. But again, he didn’t have Black Friday sales.
    Danny Gokey “My Best Days Are Ahead of Me” 12K (-55%) Total: 70K

    I think your #s are off there, or I’m not understanding what you’re saying. Danny sold 65K first week. If he dropped 55% second week, his sales would be around 30K (which I think they were if I remember correctly).

    ETA: nvm. You were editing your post as I was typing mine. LOL!!

  105. It will be interesting what type of tour RCA sets up for Lee and when it will start. Has there been any word on if he will do the Southeast Asia tour like previous winners and/or runner-ups have done in the past.

    Only conceivable thing I can see them doing with Lee is having him open for a bigger act next year. Maybe he’ll have a few one off small gigs to fill in the spaces too, and that way he can build up more of a fanbase.

  106. Lee’s itunes

    531. Sweet Serendipity – Lee DeWyze
    Wednesday, December 01, 2010 11:15 AM

    99. Live It Up – Lee DeWyze
    Wednesday, December 01, 2010 11:20 AM

  107. Danny probably wouldn’t have dropped as much because he had performed on AI which added a lot to his sales. Without those sales, his percentage wouldn’t have been as great.

  108. Lee’s itunes

    531. Sweet Serendipity – Lee DeWyze
    Wednesday, December 01, 2010 11:15 AM

    99. Live It Up – Lee DeWyze
    Wednesday, December 01, 2010 11:20 AM

    Wow!! If I’m reading this correctly, the label should have stuck with Live It Up as his single instead of SS?

  109. Wow!! If I’m reading this correctly, the label should have stuck with Live It Up as his single instead of SS?

    Live it UP is the Album number

  110. Brian_C82:
    12/01/2010 at 12:32 pm
    I’ve changed my mind – Crystal is going to outsell Lee by a significant margin. She may not set the world on fire, but she certainly has more than 50k fans who will buy her album in the first two weeks. It’s inconceivable that she would sell less than that.

    Really? I kinda doubt that. IDK – she might sell about as much as him, but I’m honestly not expecting more. She didn’t win, and she doesn’t really have much buzz now, nor did she really keep that much buzz after idol. Plus, her style of music doesn’t lend itself well (especially for an unknown, new artist) to really burn up the charts quickly. I can see her fitting an indie artist niche, and for her sales to do that well, accordingly.

  111. Lee’s itunes

    531. Sweet Serendipity – Lee DeWyze
    Wednesday, December 01, 2010 11:15 AM

    99. Live It Up – Lee DeWyze
    Wednesday, December 01, 2010 11:20 AM

    thanks for the update! couldn’t access itunes at the moment. would you know his album & single ranking on pop as well? also, is crystal already present in the itunes chart pop & overall? thanks! :)

  112. Great News for Adam IIHY 11K not bad for a song that is not really getting that much air play now and is only on the Hot AC chart at 26. 659K I think is respectable total too. I like that FYE is up too. That is a good sign I think not so much now for FYE but more for the next Album for Adam. People are still buying and still interested enough in him and more importantly the numbers went up. Maybe Adam will follow in the footsteps of Kelly and his second album will sell more then the first. You will then see a Happy Happy me if I am right.

    Carrie is a Phenom. I love her too as well as Daughtry and Kelly. Fantasia though not my cupa cupa I am happy for her too.

    As far as Lee, I hope his singles take off and therefore help his album sales. I also am behind Crystal and hope for a very good 1st sales week for her. I am most interested in the first release work of Siobhan and Didi. I think Didi may have the biggest commercial success from Season 9 but its just an opinion and most likely I will be wrong. :mrgreen:

    Honestly though I have idols that I prefer and route for more then some others I wish them all the best. I wish they all could be huge stars. On some level they are much bigger stars then they were before idol. Most of them are also making a lot more money then the ever did before idol and I think that is great for doing something they love. I also think some don’t get the exposure or support they deserve. I think Anoop and Michael Sarver have put out some really good songs. I really love Michael’s’ Ferris Wheel and believe it should have gotten a lot more support then it did. Its a great country song and I don’t like country music (though I love Carrie and Josh Gracin and have all their albums, so what do I know about me. ha ha)

  113. I’m surprised that Gokey seems to have gotten the biggest % increase from Black Friday

    I think it’s because his album finally was on sale this week. It hadn’t been on sale at Amazon until this past week. He has never had Christmas or Black Friday for sales, so I think that is the reason, vs the AMA thing.

  114. Whoever asked about Adam’s album sales when WWFM took off. I don’t have time to type out #s. Adam’s sales were leveling off when WWFM peaked. Between gold and platinum WWFM sales he went from about 13k – 8k over a period of roughly 2 months.

  115. I’m surprised that Gokey seems to have gotten the biggest % increase from Black Friday.

    The biggest increase is

    Chris Sligh “The Anatomy of Broken” <1K (+163%)

  116. I think Lee is destined for the small club, dinner theater circuit…I don’t see him having enough pull to even fill a basic 500 to 1000 seat venue on his own without some other incentive like drinks, dancing or dinner. If he gets an opening act gig I think it will be as the third wheel not the legit opener.

    He just doesn’t seem to have the ability to pull new people into his sphere. The only buzz he is getting is in the context of his idol connection.

    Unless Lee can raise his own ability to write music and get others to sing his songs I think he will always be a low tier performer in the music industry…but that is a lot better than mixing paint colors all day.

  117. There are some Casey-Crystal fans here, but realistically, most of the Casey fans who continued to vote, voted for Lee.

    I was on the AI boards and am not aware of many Casey fans that voted for Lee in the finale. In fact, I distinctly recall Casey’s fans saying they were going to vote for Crystal. I think it was all the power voters that got Lee the win, and as a result, those power voters only bought one album except for a small group that’s buying and collecting them to sell to the troops.

  118. This could be true, but last year it was said that Danny would do better than Kris, because he would have the support of a lot of Adam’s fans.

    Danny support from Adam’s fans??? Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha! No way!

  119. My guess is that Casey has a very small fanbase, Crystal not sure, she may have fans who don’t like twitter, but other figures like post idol sales and album pre-orders would indicate that she doesn’t have a large fanbase.

    Since Casey will be releasing a country album, the comparison of Twitter followers doesn’t work very well. Carrie doesn’t even have a Twitter account.

    jpfan:
    12/01/2010 at 2:05 pm

    I’m surprised that Gokey seems to have gotten the biggest % increase from Black Friday. And I thought the ETHS would give FYE a biggest boost. I think only shows that feature the music like DWTS or Idol actually do much for sales.

    Over the past three years expectations for Idol winners have been significantly lowered. From hope they sell like Daughtry to hope they go gold to hope they sell 150K (fingers crossed). Yikes.

    Looks like Danny and Adam had about the same number of increased units, just Adam’s baseline sales were high than Danny’s. These increases look like typical holiday shopping increases for older albums.

    Regarding E! THS it really didn’t focus much on the music, much more about Adam. But it is the only thing that I can think that drove the increase in IIHY track units —

    Adam Lambert, If I Had You (11,000, +22%, 659,000)

  120. Oops, I see Jason and Sligh got bigger boosts than Danny. Makes sense that religious music would do well around the holidays.

    I wonder if Daughtry gets another single. Usually once an album falls off the BB200, there are no more singles. But radio is very receptive to Daughtry’s music, so they might throw another one out there just in case.

    I thought IIHY was featured on DWTS? That show does help sell music.

  121. So, the question that begs to be answered is where are all of Lee’s fans from the show? Why are they not buying like previous year winners? AI ratings were a bit down, but, still… these sales numbers are horrid by any measure.

    Is it possible that Lee’s hyped back story and pimped underdog appeal captured the hearts and emotions of viewers a lot more than his singing? That he was more appealing as a contestant than an artist?

    I’m not suggesting he doesn’t have his share of fans, of course he does, but it is something to consider.

  122. I was on the AI boards and am not aware of many Casey fans that voted for Lee in the finale. In fact, I distinctly recall Casey’s fans saying they were going to vote for Crystal. I think it was all the power voters that got Lee the win, and as a result, those power voters only bought one album except for a small group that’s buying and collecting them to sell to the troops.

    I was on the AI boards too and I can contest to this. A good chunk of the Casey fans threw their support behind Crystal in the finale. We didn’t “power vote”. Speaking for me, my heart wasn’t into voting my butt off anymore, but I did throw about 10 minutes of votes Crystal’s way.

  123. thanks for the update! couldn’t access itunes at the moment. would you know his album & single ranking on pop as well? also, is crystal already present in the itunes chart pop & overall? thanks!

    Crystal’s single and album are not released yet, you can preorder the album though

    Pop for Lee

    Single
    SS #157

    Album
    LIU #19

    Music Video
    SS #41

  124. So, the question that begs to be answered is where are all of Lee’s fans from the show? Why are they not buying like previous year winners? AI ratings were a bit down, but, still… these sales numbers are horrid by any measure.

    Lee didn’t have that many fans on the show compared to previous year winners, that’s the point. His core fanbase is small. He won because the others had even less fans.
    It was a low buzz season.

  125. I just do not see how you can spin this positive for Lee. Hate it for the guy, but it just does not look good. Maybe SS will take off after the freeze. How is the video doing on VH1 and MTV?

  126. Well, Googletot, you can’t believe everything you read on the internet.
    Who are these mysterious powervoters you speak of and what secret power do they have to keep fans of others from doing the same thing? I actually haven’t heard many accusations like that this year, and was glad of it, after all the kerfluffle last year. :)I’d rather stick to the facts. The few vote totals Ryan mentioned during the season were way down from last year, and after a while he ceased to mention them.
    AI boards are frequented only by the most passionate fans; you can’t use them as a scientific sample of the AI viewing population.

    ETA Lol, Negativo- Hyped backstory? He worked in a paint store or haven’t you heard? That’s about the dullest AI backstory ever.I’d say he got votes despite his backstory, not because of it.

  127. Lee didn’t have that many fans on the show compared to previous year winners, that’s the point.

    Well, he probably had close to as many fans as some of the previous winners, certainly more than his sales numbers are reflecting. As I said above, it may have more to do with the reason why they were fans than anything else.

  128. Actual Soundscan numbers for the Top 10 plus some Idol related albums.

    1 WEST*KANYE MY BEAUTIFUL DARK TWISTED FANT 495,835 999 1,253 497,089
    2 MINAJ*NICKI PINK FRIDAY 375,191 999 770 375,973
    3 BOYLE*SUSAN THE GIFT 262,865 -21 334,505 878,423
    4 SWIFT*TAYLOR SPEAK NOW 240,530 64 146,358 1,965,107
    5 EVANCHO*JACKIE O HOLY NIGHT 142,240 -41 239,234 377,000
    6 RIHANNA LOUD 140,838 -32 206,530 347,614
    7 BIEBER*JUSTIN MY WORLDS ACOUSTIC 115,467 0 115,467
    8 MY CHEMICAL ROMANCE DANGER DAYS: THE TRUE LIVES OF 112,460 999 785 113,253
    9 NE-YO LIBRA SCALE 112,236 999 293 112,533
    10 GLEE CAST MUSIC: XMAS 108,004 -33 161,198 269,297
    19 VARIOUS NOW 36 61,795 11 55,894 206,471
    21 ALDEAN*JASON MY KINDA PARTY 58,858 2 57,609 389,975

  129. This could be true, but last year it was said that Danny would do better than Kris, because he would have the support of a lot of Adam’s fans.

    There are very few Adam-Danny fans — I think I may be one of the 8 that exist (number made up for illustrative purposes only). There were many more Adam fans who liked Kris and Allison.

    I don’t recall many people thinking that Danny would outsell Kris — except a couple Danny fans. I do recall many people thinking that Allison would outsell Danny. And many people basically wrote Danny off once he signed with a country label. But there were many people who doubted Allison’s commercial appeal and thought she would not sell a lot of albums.

  130. his could be true, but last year it was said that Danny would do better than Kris, because he would have the support of a lot of Adam’s fans.

    What? Where was that said? I think that is a bit of revisionist history going on there? There is pretty much zero crossover between Adam and Danny fans. If anybody benefited from the support of Adam’s fans that would be Kris (and Allison) or have you already forgotten about Kradam (and kradison)?

    They probably also benefited from the extra viewers and buzz created in Adam’s season compared to Lee’s. Not to put anybody down but what would Kris’ numbers be if he was in Lee’s season and not part of Kradam? Guess we’ll never know.

    By the way, didn’t Adam drop off by like 75% in his second week?

  131. I don’t see FD in the Top 1000 songs at iTunes, so I guess that it hasn’t been released for sale yet.

    ETA:

    The album is there for preorder, the single isn’t there yet

    Thanks! I wonder why it hasn’t been released for sale yet?

  132. Oooohhhhh, thanks jpfan!

    Look at little Selena Gomez go! I had no idea she was up to that much.

    Katy Perry, after all her bad press for her weak start, is totally going platinum. She’ll be damn close (if not there) by the end of the holidays… if not I’ll bet she’ll be over the hump by Grammy time.

    Does anyone know how much Animal (as opposed to Cannibal) has sold so far? A while back I remember it was close to platinum too.

    Oh… since jpfan edited her post, I look like I’m clarivoyant. Heh.

  133. Okay, here’s the rest of the Top 30. All the numbers together were giving me a headache so I edited the post.

    111 KID ROCK BORN FREE 103,748 -45 188,788 292,758
    12 GROBAN*JOSH ILLUMINATIONS 98,884 -48 191,226 290,122
    13 RASCAL FLATTS NOTHING LIKE THIS 82,808 -50 164,926 247,879
    14 URBAN*KEITH GET CLOSER 75,909 -53 161,515 237,437
    15 KE$HA CANNIBAL 74,217 999 126 74,344
    16 PERRY*KATY TEENAGE DREAM 72,020 178 25,880 676,384
    17 SUGARLAND INCREDIBLE MACHINE 63,428 31 48,507 523,618
    18 BURLESQUE SOUNDTRACK 63,173 999 64 63,238
    19 VARIOUS NOW 36 61,795 11 55,894 206,471
    20 BIEBER*JUSTIN MY WORLD 2.0 60,801 140 25,371 2,052,317
    21 ALDEAN*JASON MY KINDA PARTY 58,858 2 57,609 389,975
    22 LADY ANTEBELLUM NEED YOU NOW 49,838 52 32,894 2,850,942
    23 BON JOVI BON JOVI GREATEST HITS 49,792 27 39,127 176,751
    24 EMINEM RECOVERY 48,033 40 34,233 3,052,878
    25 BANKS*LLOYD H.F.M.2 (HUNGER FOR MORE 2) 44,370 999 139 44,511
    26 CAREY*MARIAH MERRY CHRISTMAS II YOU 41,575 18 35,308 165,359
    27 PINK GREATEST HITS SO FAR 41,156 -22 52,651 93,906
    28 SELENA GOMEZ & THE SCENE YEAR WITHOUT RAIN 39,669 79 22,147 296,885
    29 LIL WAYNE I AM NOT A HUMAN BEING 36,914 31 28,257 511,291
    30 VARIOUS NOW CHRISTMAS 4 36,522 27 28,790 96,014

  134. I thought IIHY was featured on DWTS? That show does help sell music.

    It was part of the finals show, yes.

  135. Tess:
    12/01/2010 at 2:34 pm
    I think Lee is destined for the small club, dinner theater circuit…I don’t see him having enough pull to even fill a basic 500 to 1000 seat venue on his own without some other incentive like drinks, dancing or dinner. If he gets an opening act gig I think it will be as the third wheel not the legit opener.

    He just doesn’t seem to have the ability to pull new people into his sphere. The only buzz he is getting is in the context of his idol connection.

    Yeah, IA. Lee is a nice dude, but I don’t think he is at all a star in any way shape or form. His voice is just mediocre, his performance ability is hardly rivetting, and he has no real hook or strong personality beyond being the “everyday guy from the paint shop”. Really, he was lucky to happen to win on decidedly the weakest year of idol.

    I wish him the best, and can see him staying in music, of course, if that’s what he really wants to be. But these numbers aren’t surpring to me at all.

  136. @Springboard-To be fair to Casey,and Crystal-Lee’s Twitter numbers are not at all genuine.More than half of those 58k followers are false followers,cuz he only received them after Ryan Seacrest told his followers to go follow Lee.TPTB likely told him to do so due to the Idol winner’s numbers being far too low at that time.So in reality his REAL twitter fans are about where Crystal and Tim Urban’s are…

  137. That Top 30 list is filled with underperforming albums….

    There are two almost certain Platinum albums: Kayne, Boyle
    Of course, Taylor Swift, Lady Antebellum, Eminem and Bieber’s old albums are already there.

    But even Katy Perry with huge hit singles is not close yet…

    16 PERRY*KATY TEENAGE DREAM 72,020 178 25,880 676,384

    And a lot of the November debuts have need lackluster. Kanye put out a great album — and it didn’t hit 500K and Nicki isn’t even at 400K. And Ke$ha’s debut is really not great…

    15 KE$HA CANNIBAL 74,217 999 126 74,344

  138. Well, he probably had close to as many fans as some of the previous winners, certainly more than his sales numbers are reflecting. As I said above, it may have more to do with the reason why they were fans than anything else.

    I think I understand what you’re saying– that Lee had maybe as many fans as some previous winners, except they were the omgz so cute, his eyes/his paint shop story variety, that could care less about the music or his album… but I disagree that Lee has close to as many fans as which previous winners. Which previous winners? It’s believed S9 had lower vote totals than S8 or S7. The post-finale iTunes sales were lower. Internet activity was lower. I don’t think it can be well-argued that he had the same amount of fans as the two previous winners…? Who was a really “unpopular winner”? Hicks and Carrie had a lot of fans. Jordin? That’s hard to know- her season viewership averaged like 30 million, and Idol fatigue wasn’t as bad in S6.

  139. There are two almost certain Platinum albums: Kayne, Boyle

    But even Katy Perry with huge hit singles is not close yet…

    16 PERRY*KATY TEENAGE DREAM 72,020 178 25,880 676,384

    Dude, she sold 72,000 albums this week. We have 4 more weeks of sales left, with the biggest 2 weeks to come. Even in an absolute worst case scenario where she only sells 50,000 a week from here on out that chick will be at 875k albums sold, and that ain’t gonna happen. She’ll easily clear 900K and maybe even 950K. She’s going platinum, and with some really good luck she might pull it off this calendar year.

    Now of course in a different time she’d be double platinum by now, but for today’s market I think she’s fine. When all is said and done, especially with the album equivalent sales, she’ll easily be double platinum domestically I think.

  140. To be fair to Casey,and Crystal-Lee’s Twitter numbers are not at all genuine.More than half of those 58k followers are false followers,cuz he only received them after Ryan Seacrest told his followers to go follow Lee.TPTB likely told him to do so due to the Idol winner’s numbers being far too low at that time.So in reality his REAL twitter fans are about where Crystal and Tim Urban’s are…

    I have been following his twitter numbers since before the tour, and the numbers for the three of them have always been in the proportions they are in at present.

  141. thanks istersay! fuzzywuzzy, i think you should try looking for the album, i think i read somewhere that it was charting, i guess that was from preorders. couldn’t really check it for you.

    pineappletree, i think regarding SS on VH1, we’ll see this coming weekend at the countdown. i know the SSvevo on utube has already 324,663 in 2 weeks. hope the VH1 exposure helps :)

  142. Jaybee- you are a little confused.Lee did not have a twitter people could follow.The day his official twitter was finally unlocked, he was interviewed by Ryan, and yes, the fact that he now had a twitter was announced, 20,000 people did sign up-fans who had been waiting quite a while to do this.Do you think a person can win AI and not have 20,000 actual fans? Of course, I haven’t interviewed each and every one of them, but a lot of them have his picture for their avatar.
    His numbers have been growing ever since, and they grow a lot faster when he has a TV appearance.

  143. Lee’s itunes
    531. Sweet Serendipity – Lee DeWyze
    Wednesday, December 01, 2010 11:15 AM

    See now this is where I have a problem everytime someone tries to spin the situation into a positive by pointing out that SS is moving up the HAC chart. Ok its up to #29, great! But its not selling. The album isn’t selling and the song isn’t selling. I think things would look more promising if the song wasn’t so far down itunes.

    And I just want to say that not all of us are “trying to get a dig” in. Hardcore Lee fans better buckle up and develop a thick skin because its going to be a long bumpy ride and he WILL be dealing with criticism from fans, non fans, media and I bet RCA. Not everyone is out to get him and wants to bring him down, but a lot of us prefer to be realists and don’t sugarcoat things. YMMV.

  144. koshka:
    12/01/2010 at 2:31 pm
    Between gold and platinum WWFM sales he went from about 13k – 8k over a period of roughly 2 months.

    Not even close!! On 2/24 the report for the previous week had Adam selling 61,000 units of WWFM for a total of 486,000. It went over the Gold mark the next week (3/3/10), with 58,000. That was followed by an addional nine consecutive weeks of over 50,000 — to be more specific: 54K, 54K, 51K, 54K, 56K, 52K, 100K+ (Idol appearance), 86K, 52K, so nine weeks after the Gold standard, he had over 1.1 million. My source is Brian’s weekly report. By the way, after the last 52K, WWFM had 43K, 39K, 35K, 31K, 28K, 24K, 23K, 23K, 21K, 20K, 19K, 18K, 21K, 16K, 14K and, by the time it dropped to your numbers, on 8/25, it had already sold close to 1.5 million. Now it has over 1.6 Million.

  145. His voice is just mediocre, his performance ability is hardly riveting, and he has no real hook or strong personality beyond being the “everyday guy from the paint shop”. Really, he was lucky to happen to win on decidedly the weakest year of idol.

    ITA. I hope that Lee proves me wrong, but I just don’t see that happening.

  146. We all know that the Record Industry is not what it was back in 2002, when Idol started. Itunes, Amazon etc were not as popular, and I think peeps actually still bought “physical” CD’s. Over the last 3 years, peeps primarily by whatever “song” or “songs” they like not entire CD’s. I think that has had a significant impact on everyone’s sales. LEE DEWYZE has a very devoted fanbase, and we do have thick skins and we ARE realistic. I never thought that Lee was going to be the next Daughtry or Carrie Underwood. I have always maintained, that what Lee wanted to do was to make a career in music, whatever that might be, and that’s all I want for him. Anyway when it comes to Lee, I always think of that story of the “Tortoise and the Hare”. Who ended up winning in the long run? The Tortoise did. So don’t “write off” Lee’s career just yet….Its just starting.

  147. Trina, lol, i’m pretty sure i placed the word “some” on my previous statement, meaning, “not all”. and i’m sure i wasn’t referring to you. i don’t see anything wrong with stating all the facts, his sales, his standing in the charts etc. i like it here coz people help each other with the AI facts/knowledge. don’t worry, the lee fans are alright, just as he is, according to his recent tweets. i’m a kris allen fan too so whatever thick skin i have right now started growing last year. i hope that there is nothing wrong with being hopeful for the career of one’s idols, as long as one doesn’t step on others of course :)

  148. Not even close!!

    ???

    I think she meant the FYE album sales went from 15K to 8K while WWFM the single was selling from gold to platinum.

  149. By the way, didn’t Adam drop off by like 75% in his second week?

    Yes, but a different situation then Lee, Kris and David Cook’s releases — because of the holiday sales spike. Adam released his album in Thanksgiving week, same as Archie. Overall album sales went up 45% the week of 11/22/09 vs. the prior week. That makes the falloff from the week before less, and the drop off from Thanksgiving week debuts greater. When you factor in the large amount of presales the Idols typically have you get these big week two drops for Idol debuts.

    Week #2 sales through 12/6/09 Adam Lambert, For Your Entertainment (51,000, -74 percent, 250,000/4,000, -88 percent, 42,000 digital total)

    This year will be the same, album sales went way up last week, they will be far lower next week.

  150. Twinkle80

    You have to have thick skin to be a Kris fan esp here with the “concerned fans” who say he is going to be dropped every other day for almost a year now. Gotta give it to them though they are persistent.

    Lee will be fine. He is a lot better off than he was a year ago and getting to do what he loves to a broader audience. It’s a win for him and his fans.

  151. David A. did not release his album Thanksgiving week. His album was released on Nov. 11th.

  152. smegging nuts:
    12/01/2010 at 3:40 pm
    Someone mentioned FYE’s second week sales drop. I can’t check but wasn’t it 71%?
    I remember reading the doom and gloom after since that was perhaps the highest or close to being the highest 2nd week drop for top two.

    Oh I remember that, there was a lot of doom and gloom, but a year later, in spite of the never ending drama around Adam, he ended up with a successful album and tour. I suggest to the Season 9 Idol fans, you guys prepare yourselves, you are in for a very up and down year. Enjoy the highs and grit your teeth through the lows.

  153. koshka:
    12/01/2010 at 2:31 pm
    Between gold and platinum WWFM sales he went from about 13k – 8k over a period of roughly 2 months.

    Not even close!!

    koshka was talking about what FYE album sales , not WWFM single sales, looked like while WWFM was crossing from gold to platinum in single sales. It was in response to that specific inquiry.

    ETA: My braintwin tinawina beat be by a lot. Oh well I’ll keep it up.

  154. Adam’s second week drop was quite predicatable actually. Between the preorders, the fact he debuted on Black Friday and the fact that he actually dropped on a Monday his first week, it was expected he’d see something around 75%. Or at least I expected it anyway. LOL

    I will edit this post with Idol related soundscan numbers in a sec.

    ETA: Okay here we go. I think I got everything out of the top 30:

    66 UNDERWOOD*CARRIE PLAY ON 18,150 53 11,895 1,828,445
    85 VARIOUS NOW 35 15,084 35 11,143 398,446
    90 BOYLE*SUSAN I DREAMED A DREAM 14,672 -6 15,672 3,868,441
    93 DEWYZE*LEE LIVE IT UP 14,573 -62 38,581 53,169
    103 GLEE CAST GLEE: THE MUSIC,V3 12,418 72 7,240 523,666
    106 FANTASIA BACK TO ME 11,924 25 9,529 330,195
    192 UNDERWOOD*CARRIE SOME HEARTS 6,514 144 2,670 7,048,408

    And in answer to my question about Animal:

    53 KE$HA ANIMAL 22,508 161 8,635 1,040,203

    Platinum in under a year, which is good for this day and age.

    ETA: My braintwin tinawina beat be by a lot. Oh well I’ll keep it up.

    LMAO!

  155. Comparing Lee and Adam is kind of ridic, sorry. No one in their right mind expected Lee to have anything but mediocre sales. Lee couldn’t even score a gig giving out an AMA. Lee will be fine. He’s still better off than 90% of struggling musicians out there.

  156. I think Crystal has older fans who are more likely to buy CD’s. I also suspect that CB’s fans will be more motivated to buy her stuff because they feel like she deserved to win.

    But the biggest reason Crystal will outsell Lee is because she is perceived to be the better singer. Lambert outsold the guy who beat him for essentially the same reason. I expect the same phenomenon to play out with Crystal, though on a much smaller scale. My wild guess is that Crystal will end up with 200-300k. Lee will struggle to break 150k.

    Or maybe I’m wrong, and they will both be huge flops? I wouldn’t lose any sleep over that.

  157. I don’t have the actual line for Adam’s first two weeks, but I do have these numbers jotted down.

    3 – 198466 (First week)
    22 – 50999 (Second week)

    What is that, a 74.3% drop? (Makes sense, since his second week was after BF, I think.)

  158. Artemis – Just wanted to say that I enjoy you and your friends’ tweets. I’m not as “disturbed” as I might sound on the internet. ;-)

  159. Lee will likely follow the path of Allison since they apparently have similar sized fan bases. Expect him to be an opening act on tour, sell around 100k albums, and then be looking for a new label when 19 decides not to renew. Meanwhile, he’ll have more than enough money to be comfortable.

    I suspect his next album will be an independent release, more along the lines of his pre-Idol work, and he’ll tour much smaller venues. He’ll be just fine, though the stigma of not selling well on his big label debut may prove as difficult to shake as his paint shop back story.

  160. I think Crystal will get the better press of the two. But she only has about 9 days to sell her album before album sales go into the toilet. So she needs to really have some longevity with her sales or she’s in trouble.

  161. Don´t Lee´s numbers show that having the typical staple of writers and producers that 19 provide, doesn´t guarantee anything, other than take it farther from what the Artist (Lee in this case) would have liked the album to be? Maybe he´s now thinking he should have tried staying truer to his roots, or if fame and success mean the most to him, the opposite, as in putting all the decisions and creative work into 19 hands? Must be very disappointing to see nothing come out of his compromises

  162. @Springboard-it was shortly after the idol finale,that this occurred with the Seacrest bump,-I checked it thoroughly-Lee,and Crystal were about tied at that time

  163. David Cook opened with 280,000
    Kris opened with 80,000 (200,000 less than Cook)
    Lee opened with 38,000 (42,000 less than Kris)
    Now if the season 10 winner opens with 20,000 we can then declare Lee a success and the new champ a loser.

  164. Everyone expected Adam’s sales to drop about 75% in week #2, just like it was easy to predict yesterday that Lee would drop about 60% — which is what happened.

    In looking at the decline in Idol sales, the overall market for albums is not good. And the days of every big hit album going platinum are over. (This explains little of what is happening to Lee but some of what is happening overall to Idol album sales — even Carrie and Daughtry.)

    Look at Katy Perry’s album —

    A #1 album with a 3X platinum #1 hit, a 2X platinum #1 hit follow-up and her current single is #2 on Billboard, #1 on digital sales last week with 232,000 units sold. And album sales of only 676,384 in the US is surprising. Her album was released on August 24, 2010 — so it has 3 months of sales.

    Regarding the outlook for her album going platinum — it sold 74K last week but was on sale during the biggest shopping week of the year — it only sold 26K the week before and it will fall back to lower sales level. So it will hit platinum eventually — but probably not until well into 2011.

    With hits and airplay like she has, this album would have certainly been platinum in 2008 within 3 months.

  165. Does anyone have the stats on hand– how many albums sold over 1 million albums in 2008, 2009, 2010? Whatever the weird Billboard cutoff date year is?

  166. David Cook opened with 280,000
    Kris opened with 80,000 (200,000 less than Cook)
    Lee opened with 38,000 (42,000 less than Kris)
    Now if the season 10 winner opens with 20,000 we can then declare Lee a success and the new champ a loser.

    That actually made me think. SO I went to mjs archives and complied this:

    Top seller’s opening weeks from each season:

    season/name/sales total/BB chart position
    S1 Kelly Clarkson 297K (1)
    S2 Clay Aiken 612K (1)
    S3 Fantasia 239K (8)
    S4 Carrie Underwood 314K (2)
    55 Chris Daughtry 303K (2)
    S6 Jordin Sparks 119K (10)
    S7 David Cook 280K (3)
    S8 Adam Lambert 198K (3)
    S9 TBD

    Lee’s down significantly no matter how you slice it but if Crystal can pull of a #10 debut (or even #11) she’d be not too much off the past. Not counting on it though.

    Regarding the outlook for her album going platinum — it sold 74K last week but was on sale during the biggest shopping week of the year — it only sold 26K the week before and it will fall back to lower sales level. So it will hit platinum eventually — but probably not until well into 2011.

    She did the Victoria’s secret thingy last night and the and Grammy thingy tonight, so I think her drop will not be that hard this week. She’s just hitting the third smash, which for a pop star these days singles when the album sales really start to loosen up. Plus, those last 2 weeks of December will be killer for her, especially the sales that report Dec 29, as it will include those last few days before Christmas AND might catch some of the ITunes cash-in bonanza. She’s a prime “complete my album” candidate. Katy will be heavily featured on every year end countdown imaginable. She’s easily clearing 900K by Jan 1, I would bet money. Add in the fact she’s sure to do a high profile New Years eve TV thing and that first reporting week in January should also be pretty decent for her.

    With hits and airplay like she has, this album would have certainly been platinum in 2008 within 3 months.

    Ain’t that the truth! But for this year and in this market? I don’t think she’s doing horribly at all. Like I said when all is said and done, she is going to move a lot of domestic units. She already had above 500K in album equivalent sales alone.

  167. Brian_C82:
    12/01/2010 at 4:04 pm

    I think Crystal has older fans who are more likely to buy CD’s. I also suspect that CB’s fans will be more motivated to buy her stuff because they feel like she deserved to win.

    But the biggest reason Crystal will outsell Lee is because she is perceived to be the better singer. Lambert outsold the guy who beat him for essentially the same reason. I expect the same phenomenon to play out with Crystal, though on a much smaller scale. My wild guess is that Crystal will end up with 200-300k. Lee will struggle to break 150k.

    Or maybe I’m wrong, and they will both be huge flops? I wouldn’t lose any sleep over that.

    There is nothing similar between Adam and Crystal except that they came in #2 on Idol.

    Right now Crystal is not even matching Lee’s presale numbers on iTunes or Amazon chart positions. Not on the Top 200 albums on iTunes #61 in Pop with a banner and being featured. #122 on Amazon CD Best Sellers.

    Her single has close to no airplay. 2 Stations are playing FD and it doesn’t even have an add date.

    There is close to no media about her album. The advance copies are out to the press but there is close to no coverage.

    The album in not in a high-selling genre. So if it goes beyond Idol fans, it is in a niche market.

    I just see is no indication she will sell many albums and could easily sell less than Lee. The presale placement look like Allison’s #’s not even Lee’s.

    Too early to predict but right now everything points to a 35K opening week for Crystal. And that is not good.

    So far Jive has not invested a ton in promoting Crystal so I am not expecting a big promo surprise.

  168. Last year, Kris’s single continued to sell weekly. He had both album and single sales in November. The more radio play, the more sales. However, Sweet Serendipity sales seems to have stalled despite the spin increase on HAC. .

  169. See now this is where I have a problem everytime someone tries to spin the situation into a positive by pointing out that SS is moving up the HAC chart. Ok its up to #29, great! But its not selling.

    SS is sales aren’t out of the ordinary given its Audience Impression, and the amount of time that it has been out. There’s a huge difference between being 29th on HAC and 29th on the pop chart.

    Don´t Lee´s numbers show that having the typical staple of writers and producers that 19 provides, doesn´t guarantee anything

    You are assuming that Lee’s numbers have something to do with the quality of the album. If that’s the case, are you also saying that Taylor Hick’s 298,000 albums sold during his first week means that his album was better than Adam’s, or that Ruben had the best debut album of any AI winner ever, since he sold over 400,00 copies his first week?

    As a reporter for Billboard wrote last week, Lee’s numbers have more to do with how AI viewers felt about last season, and AI’s slipping ratings, than anything about Lee. And really, Crystal will have to deal with the same thing. So far, buzz about her album has not been deafening, and radio stations haven’t fallen over themselves to play FD, so until she can reach her audience, no matter how old they are, she’ll have to deal with the backlash about last season. Maybe the general public will think that Lee’s album sucks, but we won’t know that until more people become aware of Lee and his music.

  170. Her single has close to no airplay. 2 Stations are playing FD and it doesn’t even have an add date.

    Neither the single nor the album have been released yet, so this is to be expected. I must say, though, it is odd that the single still has not been released and we’re less than two weeks from the album drop. I’m wondering if they are not going to release a single at all and just market the album in a real old school kinda way. Since everything regarding Crystal has been unconventional for Idol so far, nothing would surprise me.

  171. Ain’t that the truth! But for this year and in this market? I don’t think she’s doing horribly at all. Like I said when all is said and done, she is going to move a lot of domestic units. She already had above 500K in album equivalent sales alone.

    ITA Katy Perry is doing great — my point is that it is really difficult to sell 1 million albums in the US right now.

    I do not think that an Idol winner can be expected to have a Platinum album in this market. A Gold album would be an accomplishment.

  172. season/name/sales total/BB chart position
    S1 Kelly Clarkson 297K (1)
    S2 Clay Aiken 612K (1)
    S3 Fantasia 239K (8)
    S4 Carrie Underwood 314K (2)
    55 Chris Daughtry 303K (2)
    S6 Jordin Sparks 119K (10)
    S7 David Cook 280K (3)
    S8 Adam Lambert 198K (3)
    S9 TBD

    Nicely done, tinawina!

    I gotta question, is there a significant difference between sales competition on the BB chart between a November and December debut? I.e. is it harder or easier to get a higher ranking in November vs. December? Secondly, did the BB#8 and BB#10 debuts (Tasia and Jordin) both take place in November? Just curious, since Crystal is debuting in December. Was wondering if any past top sellers of the season debuted in December.

  173. If they give Crystal a release date at all it won’t be until January. It makes no sese to do it now.

    How many weeks ago did it turn up on promosquad (or whatever it was)? How long ago was the final mix completed? Like a couple of weeks, right? I don’t think there was time to truly release a real single, they might have just made it available to stations and plan to push it after the holidays.

    I do not think that an Idol winner can be expected to have a Platinum album in this market. A Gold album would be an accomplishment.

    Agreed! Platinum is rarefied air these days.

    I gotta question, is there a significant difference between sales competition on the BB chart between a November and December debut? I.e. is it harder or easier to get a higher ranking in November vs. December? Secondly, did the BB#8 and BB#10 debuts (Tasia and Jordin) both take place in November? Just curious, since Crystal is debuting in December. Was wondering if any past top sellers of the season debuted in December.

    Those are great questions, and honestly I don’t know the answers. The only people I remember opening in December were Taylor and Allison. I bet Kirsten knows!

  174. I just see is no indication she will sell many albums and could easily sell less than Lee. The presale placement look like Allison’s #’s not even Lee’s.

    Too early to predict but right now everything points to a 35K opening week for Crystal. And that is not good.

    You may be right. But my hunch is her initial numbers will reflect to a much lesser degree the eventual total numbers, when compared to other Idols. Of course, it will take some time to reach to those outside of the AI bubble, but sooner or later, I predict a snowballing affect that will in the end provide her with a solid number, 500k or so.

    On the other hand, if she would have gone the typical 19 staple co-writes and producers route, probably similar initial numbers but less new outside AI bubble fans and buyers. As I said, just a feeling I can´t support by any scientific or history means :)

  175. Does anyone have the stats on hand– how many albums sold over 1 million albums in 2008, 2009, 2010? Whatever the weird Billboard cutoff date year is?

    Sma11ie, I’ve seen them posted, to illustrate how the numbers were shrinking – but I don’t have the cite or the link – the only one I can give you is David’s, complete with weird cut-off date for the chart year. ;) – hopefully, you can collecct the others. If you do – I practically promise I will copy it in a ‘safe place’ because this has come up before. *snerk* @Myself

    David Cook, the album, was one of only 19 albums to sell 1 million or more (of 115K albums released) in 2009 chart year.

    ETA – if you want the 2008 chart year, then you need Jordin’s Season6 numbers- and actually, I would like to see her opening numbers in that list from upthread – because I think that shows the downward pattern as it began….except for the Two David’s Anomaly. Kris is not that far off Jordin’s numbers, IIRC, but I don’t have them handy.

    JMO. Of Course.

  176. If they give Crystal a release date at all it won’t be until January. It makes no sese to do it now.

    The album has an official release date of December 14th.

  177. It has been established that the market has changed since Kelly, Clay and Daughtry. I was trying to show that Lee’s drop for winners of idol is no more dramatic than the other drops for winners since Cook. I don’t think we’ll see any other idol winner in a long time who can come up with Cook type numbers. Now when Crystal’s album drops, I suppose she will also sell less than Archie and Adam.

  178. Brian-well, that’s a relief! And twitter is where most of the Lee fans hang out.
    I don’t know why anyone would think Lee’s twitter numbers aren’t real fans. 58,000 is not a huge number, and he has sold nearly that number of albums. He’s fun to follow and frequently acknowledges his followers when he’s interviewed. I wouldn’t follow anyone on twitter I’m not interested in-it would be annoying to have their tweets clog up my twitter feed.

  179. Does anyone have the stats on hand– how many albums sold over 1 million albums in 2008, 2009, 2010?

    The SS results for 2010 have not been published yet (and IIRC, the BB year starts BF week).

    I don’t have the list of the number of million selling per year. I think the industry doesn’t want to talk about that. They are happy to report digital track sales though (these are sales in a single year not across years):

    2008:
    >3M – 1
    >2M – 19 (2007: 9)
    >1M -71 (2007: 41, 2006: 22, 2005: 2)

    2009:
    >4M – 4
    >2M – 31
    >1M – 89
    (Gaga alone sold 15M tracks. Gaga, BEP, MJ and Taylor each sold more than 10M).

    Top 10 Albums 2008:

    1 Tha Carter III/ Lil Wayne 2,874,000
    2 Viva La Vida/ Coldplay 2,144,000
    3 Fearless/ Taylor Swift 2,112,000
    4 Rock N Roll Jesus/ Kid Rock 2,018,000
    5 Black Ice/ AC/DC 1,915,000
    6 Taylor Swift/ Taylor Swift 1,597,000
    7 Death Magnetic/ Metallica 1,565,000
    8 Paper Trail/ T.I. 1,522,000
    9 Sleep Through the Static/ Jack Johnson 1,492,000
    10. I Am…Sasha Fierce/ Beyonce 1,459,000

    2009:
    1 Fearless/ Taylor Swift 3,217,000
    2 I Dreamed A Dream/ Susan Boyle 3,104,000
    3 Number Ones/ Michael Jackson 2,355,000
    4 Fame/ Lady Gaga 2,238,000
    5 My Christmas/ Andrea Bocelli 2,207,000
    6 Hannah Movie Sndtrk/ Hannah Montana 1,823,000
    7 E.N.D. (Energy Never Dies)/ Black Eyed Peas 1,787,000
    8 Relapse/ Eminem 1,735,000
    9 Blueprint 3/ Jay-Z 1,515,000
    10. Only By the Night/ Kings of Leon 1,398,000

  180. BTW I just wanna backup my earlier post to say its not directed to anyone here but rather me venting due to my being annoyed seeing elsewhere some Lee fans constantly flying off the handle on the defense if his numbers are put down. I got irriated today when someone (who I hung out with at his IHR show!!) called me a hater. I mean seriously WTF? Sorry but I AM a fan but I’m also not the type to handle someone with kidgloves. Idol fans analyze numbers and the simple fact is Lee’s are low. Argh. Pointing this out doesn’t make you a hater!

  181. Neither the single nor the album have been released yet, so this is to be expected.

    I think it’s a fair guess to say that the song has been released to radio. It would be odd for the Bakersfield station to add the song, if the label had not sent it to them. Just speculation, a guess, or whatever, but Crystal may be experiencing the same issues that Allison did with radio.

    I do not think that an Idol winner can be expected to have a Platinum album in this market.

    It will be impossible for an idol winner, runner up, or anyone from the show to go platinum based on people buying the album just because someone is on the show. But, any alum can go platinum if they release multiple hits, receive radio support and label support, and have good management.

  182. Eriko:
    12/01/2010 at 4:10 pm

    Don´t Lee´s numbers show that having the typical staple of writers and producers that 19 provide, doesn´t guarantee anything, other than take it farther from what the Artist (Lee in this case) would have liked the album to be?

    Has Lee said that this album isn’t him?? I hadn’t heard that. All I’ve heard is how proud he is to have been able to co-write on so many songs.

    As a reporter for Billboard wrote last week, Lee’s numbers have more to do with how AI viewers felt about last season, and AI’s slipping ratings, than anything about Lee. And really, Crystal will have to deal with the same thing

    Sorry, I also don’t see how people’s disappointment with AI last season has NOTHING to do with Lee or Crystal or any of the contestants. It was a disappointing and boring season for many because of the contestants, of which Lee apparently was the cream of the crop (if that’s what winning Idol means). Of course, people’s disappointment with AI had to do with the contestants and with the performances by those contestants. If Lee had been interesting enough to capture people with his vocal talent or performance style, there would have been more people anticipating his album and wanting to buy it based on his voice. Same goes for Crystal.

  183. I was trying to show that Lee’s drop for winners of idol is no more dramatic than the other drops for winners since Cook.

    Well, I think that’s not true. I posted it the way I did because I don’t buy the “winners should sell the most” meme. I think Idol has a big seller every year and it has not always been the winner. So if Lee is the most popular contestant his year (remains to be seen) he should open similar to the rest of the most popular contestants in their years, at least by chart position.

    I don’t think Lee is a bad guy and he’ll sure have a career of some sort on the long run. And this may be as much a reflection on Idol as it is on Lee. But it is still pretty bad.

  184. For as much as people say there was no buzz about American Idol this year, it still came in #9 on the most searched topics on Yahoo for 2010. Absent from that list – Ke$ha, Katy Perry, Taylor Swift, and probably a number of others that I’m just not thinking of.

    http://www.cnn.com/2010/TECH/web/12/01/yahoo.most.searched.terms/index.html?hpt=T2

    Yes, I’m sure in the past AI has probably been up near the top but considering some of the names that don’t appear in this list, I think it’s kinda hard to say that there’s no buzz.

    Oh, and also related to search trends online, I checked Google Trends the other day and it’s really hard to say that Crystal has less buzz than Lee – they’re basically about equal (if anything it appears that Crystal is more frequently searched, but the difference is miniscule). They have about the same level of buzz according to Google Trends as do Kris, Danny, and others. (And the discussion about whose fans are more tech savvy has been rehashed numerous times – suffice to say if Crystal is equal to Lee and others in internet presence, I believe it means she may have wider support than is believed.) It may really come down to the music in the end, as people have said before.

    Not expecting a 100K debut for Crystal and I don’t think anyone is. But I do think it’s quite possible she’ll debut with better sales than Lee, maybe a good bit better.

  185. But the biggest reason Crystal will outsell Lee is because she is perceived to be the better singer.

    Haven’t you heard? Being a good singer really doesn’t mean much in music these days!

    Seriously, though, I kind of expect that if this were going to happen her Amazon sales rank would be as high as or higher than Lee’s. When you look at who sells high at Amazon, it seems as if it includes a lot of the singer-types who appeal to maybe some older fans who actually like singing, plus a lot of traditional singer-songwriter types, folkies and the like. Crystal’s lower ranking there than Lee seems a bit ominous to me, just based on who I see selling better on Amazon than they do elsewhere. I guess it may be different since she’s a new artist and coming off a tv show, but I wouldn’t bet on that.

  186. You may be right. But my hunch is her initial numbers will reflect to a much lesser degree the eventual total numbers, when compared to other Idols. Of course, it will take some time to reach to those outside of the AI bubble, but sooner or later, I predict a snowballing affect that will in the end provide her with a solid number, 500k or so.

    The snowball effect can happen, but can you describe some of the things that Jive is doing to introduce her to the people who like her type of music? I’m asking as someone who has always thought that Jive and her management would have to try a different course with her, but who also thinks she’s going to have a long and rough time without support from radio.

  187. Does anyone have the stats on hand– how many albums sold over 1 million albums in 2008, 2009, 2010? Whatever the weird Billboard cutoff date year is?

    eilonwy tracked platinum certifications from 2000 to 2009. As Kirsten pointed out, 2010 isn’t finished yet.

    Platinum albums in the current music industry

    But, any alum can go platinum if they release multiple hits, receive radio support and label support, and have good management.

    At this point, this is the same as saying any artist can go platinum if they have multiple hits, receive radio support and label support, and have good management. Yes, it still happens, but there are enough counterexamples out there of artists who have all three and still don’t make it to make it unrealistic as a baseline expectation.

  188. Has Lee said that this album isn’t him?? I hadn’t heard that. All I’ve heard is how proud he is to have been able to co-write on so many songs.

    Based on all interviews he´s done, I wouldn´t expect him to say otherwise. But maybe he his, but based on his fans, it´s very different from his pre-idol stuff. Has any Idol said otherwise? Wasn´t Cook album a let down for his fans? He still needed to promote it…anyway, I take what Lee or any other Idol say about their just released album, with a big grain of salt

  189. But the biggest reason Crystal will outsell Lee is because she is perceived to be the better singer.

    Yesterday, I was listening to the performance where she sang FD at VH1, and I was thinking about how good her vocals are, but honestly, I wouldn’t buy the song. It’s just not the type of song that I enjoy. I bought Up to the Mountain, because I enjoyed her AI performance, but I never transferred the song to my mp3 player, and a few days after the finale, I’d forgotten that I purchased it.

    I think that a lot of people can appreciate good vocals, but that’s not the main reason why people will buy music. Crystal is producing the type of music that is hard to promote, especially when it is being performed by someone who is coming off of AI.

  190. I don’t have the list of the number of million selling per year. I think the industry doesn’t want to talk about that.

    Jerks! LOL. Thanks for the info. I knew track sales would be up. Did someone sum up the top 10 of the two years? I eyeballed it, and it looks like 2009’s top 10 actually did better. But that’s too few acts to get a clear picture I think… Anyway we could have like, the top 20? That would be interesting to compare.

  191. Based on all interviews I´ve heard or read, I wouldn´t expect him to say otherwise. But maybe he his, but based on his fans, it´s very different from his pre-idol stuff. Has any Idol said otherwise? Wasn´t Cook album a let down for his fans? He still needed to promote it…anyway, I take what Lee or any other Idol say about their just released album, with a big grain of salt

    Forget about pre-idol stuff. After Idol, it’s a completely different game.

    And really, Lee, Crystal and every other Idol contestant know or should know what they are getting into when they audition for the show.

  192. At this point, this is the same as saying any artist can go platinum if they have multiple hits, receive radio support and label support, and have good management.

    Yes. That’s my point. We have to stop looking at them as reality show contestants, or being from AI, and see them as regular new artists. In the past, people would buy these albums as souvenirs, just as they are doing with the AGT people, and that’s still happening today, but to a lesser extent. The labels and 19 also need to start viewing them as new artists, and not rely on them to get attention just because they were on the show.

  193. Sure, but your point was also that new artists could still expect platinum sales if enough things went right for them. And I don’t think the labels and 19 should have that expectation, because the majority of new and mature artists struggle to get to that threshold even with support and radio hits.

  194. Sorry, I also don’t see how people’s disappointment with AI last season has NOTHING to do with Lee or Crystal or any of the contestants.

    Maybe I should have been clearer, Lee’s sales say less about Lee as an artist (or more to the point, what people think of Lee’s album), and more about Lee’s ability as a reality show contestant (or how people viewed him as a reality show contestant).

  195. Sure, but your point was also that new artists could still expect platinum sales if enough things went right for them. And I don’t think the labels and 19 should have that expectation, because the majority of new and mature artists struggle to get to that threshold even with support and radio hits.

    It’s not a case where they should expect this to happen, that’s not what I was saying. My point was that it can happen, but not because someone was on AI, and they received a lot of votes or were popular on the show. If it happens, it’s going to be because of the music.

  196. Yes. That’s my point. We have to stop looking at them as reality show contestants, or being from AI, and see them as regular new artists.

    That can’t happen IMO. One, there’s no point to it for the label. Without the built-in sales they are much a much riskier investment, one that the label had limited input in selecting. 2. They appear before millions of people for 5 months and do a nationwide tour before they are released. They get coverage in major media outlets and have sizeable name recognition. They are not new artists, ever. What they are is TV stars with record deals at first, no matter how you slice it.

    My point was that it can happen, but not because someone was on AI, and they received a lot of votes or were popular on the show. If it happens, it’s going to be because of the music.

    I agree. When your top selling uber popular acts can’t be counted on to sell platinum (or close to it) during the holidays, you can’t count on Idols to do that. But you should be able to count on them doing something, or else there is no incentive to offer a record deal as a prize for the label IMO.

  197. Yes. That’s my point. We have to stop looking at them as reality show contestants, or being from AI, and see them as regular new artists.

    But they aren’t regular new artists. They get exposure to the public like no other new artists get. AFter the album is released they get promotional opportunities and television show bookings that new artists would DIE for. There are usually internet streams and stories about their new albums that other new artists don’t get. I don’t think it’s wrong to expect them to do better than other new artists.

  198. That can’t happen IMO. One, there’s no point to it for the label. Without the built-in sales they are much a much riskier investment, one that the label had limited input in selecting. 2. They appear before millions of people for 5 months and do a nationwide tour before they are released. They get coverage in major media outlets and have sizeable name recognition. They are not new artists, ever. What they are is TV stars with record deals at first, no matter how you slice it.

    To the majority of people, they are new artists, and radio and consumers have shown that this is how they are going to start treating them.

    I do agree that this causes an issue for the label, and it seems like it’s something that may have been getting to Sony, even though it was 19’s decision to go to UMG. It will be interesting to see if this issue changes how UMG deals with the winners, and anyone who they want to sign.

  199. nice to see that adam increase his sales this week!

    Adam Lambert, For Your Entertainment (4,000, +19%, 762,000)

  200. It will be interesting to see if this issue changes how UMG deals with the winners, and anyone who they want to sign.

    I guess there is one advantage to all the 15-year-old poppets as contestants; there’s a much greater likelihood that the contract terms will be shared (wasn’t that how people found out last time? Iraheta’s contract had to be filed with the state because she was a minor?).

  201. The snowball effect can happen, but can you describe some of the things that Jive is doing to introduce her to the people who like her type of music? I’m asking as someone who has always thought that Jive and her management would have to try a different course with her, but who also thinks she’s going to have a long and rough time without support from radio.

    Honestly, I hadn´t heard of Jive until Crystal signed up with them. And the first time I´ve read anything about Labels and their role, was here a few weeks ago. So there you have my label “expertise” status.

    Whatever Jive/Gina do, on top of her exposure during AI, will IMO be enough to make other laws continue to work for Crystal. Word of mouth, critical acclaim (maybe), working with and getting exposure from respected and accomplished artists (Crystal seems to have a knack of plugging with other musicians) Lilith Fair and other concerts etc

  202. On the 1 million sales question — all Platinum albums have not sold 1 million at retail — Taylor Hicks sold 704K retail but is certified Platinum. And all 1 million selling albums are not certified Platinum. Sometimes the label/artist doesn’t both to file for certification in a timely matter. (The accounting charge is high and charged to the artist. The plaque is cheap.)

    When you look at who sells high at Amazon, it seems as if it includes a lot of the singer-types who appeal to maybe some older fans who actually like singing, plus a lot of traditional singer-songwriter types, folkies and the like. Crystal’s lower ranking there than Lee seems a bit ominous to me, just based on who I see selling better on Amazon than they do elsewhere. I guess it may be different since she’s a new artist and coming off a tv show, but I wouldn’t bet on that.

    I agree about Amazon. I am surprised about her low chart position on the Amazon Best Seller chart. Idol alums usually do better — even Allison was ranked higher during her presale.

    Crystal capturing a lot of over 45 year old album buyers, seems like a stretch to me. Half of Idol’s audience is over 45 and they did not vote heavily for her — or she would have won.

    I also do not think that many people over 45 are nostalgic for neo-60’s folk rock and/or protest songs, the trend is toward escapism — similar to the 1930’s and 1970’s — we are in another period of hard times and uncertainty.

    In any case, I think Crystal is a niche artist and it just depends on how big that niche is.

  203. To the majority of people, they are new artists, and radio and consumers have shown that this is how they are going to start treating them.

    That’s true. But those first sales are always about the fans of the TV show. Without those fans buying…

    I do agree that this causes an issue for the label, and it seems like it’s something that may have been getting to Sony, even though it was 19’s decision to go to UMG. It will be interesting to see if this issue changes how UMG deals with the winners, and anyone who they want to sign.

    Great question. I wonder too. I don’t know how UMG will approach this, if the dismal sales happen again next year that would be bad news indeed.

  204. But you should be able to count on them doing something, or else there is no incentive to offer a record deal as a prize for the label IMO.

    No new artist is going to sell 39,000 copies of his cd in the first week, if he only has one song out that is below 30 on HAC with an AI around 1.5. That is the bump that Lee got from being on AI. Allison sold around the same without having a song do even that little bit. That was her bump, no new artist was going to do that. If the label, the artist and 19 want more, then they need to put forward more of an effort, even during the season.

  205. Comparing Lee and Adam is kind of ridic, sorry. No one in their right mind expected Lee to have anything but mediocre sales. Lee couldn’t even score a gig giving out an AMA. Lee will be fine. He’s still better off than 90% of struggling musicians out there.

    I agree JP.

    Off a much more popular season, plus Adam had some of the best promo given to any Idol- not sure why anyone would even compare Lee to him.

    Yes, Lee is still ahead of the game by overall standards of new artists, for sure.

  206. Yes. That’s my point. We have to stop looking at them as reality show contestants, or being from AI, and see them as regular new artists.

    Sony paid a lot of money in advances to 19E and these artists — $375K to the winner, $300K to the #2 — and the did it because of the marketing power of American Idol. And it worked for about half of the artists they signed.

    No chance that they will make money on Lee. But the total 19 deal had enough big winners in it for Sony to make it worthwhile — Carrie, Kelly, Daughtry made a ton of money for Sony. Others, like Ruben and Clay, generated profits on their early albums. That is how the business works — one big win pays for 5 misses. So in a strange way Carrie and Kelly, and Pink and Britney help support a portfolio of rising stars and misses. If the label doesn’t think that you can produce profits in the future, they do not exercise the next album option — and there are always greatest hits albums and Christmas albums to make a quick profit here and there.

  207. I agree with a lot you’ve been saying Elliegrll, that the better comparison for Lee is to another HAC only debut artist. I also don’t know why his radio play is dismissed consistently. No, SS is not moving lightning fast or at the pace of CHR but if the song was such a pathetic grower then why hasn’t one song passed it the entire month it has been on the HAC chart? Also, one thing Allison had was critic’s love and hype coming off of the show. So either that isn’t worth much or it doesn’t translate into sales as much as Idol fans think it does.

  208. No new artist is going to sell 39,000 copies of his cd in the first week, if he only has one song out that is below 30 on HAC with an AI around 1.5. That is the bump that Lee got from being on AI.

    Of course it is, but that’s not much of a bump and his total sales over the holidays won’t even come close to covering costs. The thing is, I am totally with you on making the distinction between the regular music buying market and the TV show generated market. But in the past, the revenue generated from the TV show fans were enough to make it highly likely a label would recoup all or most of what they laid out, for at least one of the winner or runner up if not both. Labels only did as much additional advance promo as made sense for that artists’ potential to break through to the regular market. And honestly, other TV shows right now are showing they can provide that guarantee. That was true even for last year. Adam sold decently through the holidays. To me, this is not a question of the labels or the fan boards just having to adjust, having some higher expectations than this is not unreasonable IMO. If this is the best the franchise can muster next year then its just not feasible to give them record deals as a prize, period IMO.

  209. No new artist is going to sell 39,000 copies of his cd in the first week, if he only has one song out that is below 30 on HAC with an AI around 1.5. That is the bump that Lee got from being on AI. Allison sold around the same without having a song do even that little bit. That was her bump, no new artist was going to do that. If the label, the artist and 19 want more, then they need to put forward more of an effort, even during the season.

    Many Idols have sold more without radio support….

    Ruben’s lead album single was released after his album was released. He sold over 400K week #1 with almost no radio.

    Taylor’s single was released over 2 months after his album was released.

    Katharine McPhee had her album and lead single released on the same day. She sold 116,000 her first week.

    Adam had limited airplay before his album released, almost sold 200K in the first week.

  210. If this is the best the franchise can muster next year then its just not feasible to give them record deals as a prize, period IMO.

    One way for a label to monitize the Idol deal any more is to get some guarantee of promotional benefit from the show for their current recording artists. I am completely convinced that Universal will have more of their artists featured on Idol next year than they had in the past. So if Universal is treated like iTunes and gets a lot of in-show placement, that is worth millions of dollars in ad exposure and sales.

    So then it doesn’t matter if they have to spend $1 million or $2 million dollars on an album, they already got the benefit. The rest is just gravy.

    And since 19E cuts a cut of all the Idols sales, they will continue to promote the big Idol sales winners.

    But most of Idol’s revenue is from ads and product placements — and that has to be their main focus because without that $1 billion revenue stream how do they all get paid — Ryan needs his $15 million check each year.

  211. Also, one thing Allison had was critic’s love and hype coming off of the show. So either that isn’t worth much or it doesn’t translate into sales as much as Idol fans think it does.

    Allison didn’t have that much hype coming off of Idol. Yes she had Michael Slezak, but I think his coverage seems to skew the perception. Allison did get a GMA gig and some of the talk shows. Her reviews also were mixed, her metacritic score was 66, but Slezak’s score of 91 really affected that score also. Of the 7 major reviews used by Metacritic, 3 were positive, 4 were mixed.

    http://www.metacritic.com/music/just-like-you/critic-reviews

  212. Many Idols have sold more without radio support….

    Yes they have, but that has nothing to do with the quote that I was responding to, which had to do with idols, mainly Lee, in comparison to new artists.

    No chance that they will make money on Lee.

    On Monday you said it’s too early to right Lee off, or speculate on his future. What’s changed since then? Sony won’t make their money back this week or next, but who knows whether or not Lee manage to get a few hit singles.

    Adam had limited airplay before his album released, almost sold 200K in the first week.

    Adam didn’t have limited promotion, and he sure as heck had more promo than Lee did. I’m going to go out on a short limb, and say that Adam would not have sold as much as he has, which is less than some of the other alums, who’ve even managed to have bigger hits than Adam has, without the promo that he’s received.

  213. Sometimes the label/artist doesn’t both to file for certification in a timely matter. (The accounting charge is high and charged to the artist. The plaque is cheap.)

    I looked it up the other day on the RIAA site. It’s like a couple hundred bucks for the audit.

    Thanks for the DCO link on platinum albums through the years!

  214. bigaifan:
    12/01/2010 at 3:27 pm
    koshka:
    12/01/2010 at 2:31 pm
    Between gold and platinum WWFM sales he went from about 13k – 8k over a period of roughly 2 months.

    Not even close!! On 2/24 the report for the previous week had Adam selling 61,000 units of WWFM for a total of 486,000.

    Sorry I wasn’t clear. The OP was asking about ALBUM sales for when WWFM peaked and the impact on sales. I think the #s I looked at a few hours ago were between March/April – June.

  215. I’m wondering if they are not going to release a single at all and just market the album in a real old school kinda way. Since everything regarding Crystal has been unconventional for Idol so far, nothing would surprise me.

    That’s nice spin for Jive. In reality, the label would save tons of $$$ without radio promotion, but could rationalize not releasing any singles as marketing Crystal in an “old school” way.

  216. I’m going to go out on a limb also and say that Adam would have sold more than Kris or Lee with the exact same amount and Kind of promotion. He had so much more buzz coming off the show. But don’t see any point in comparing Lee to Adam.

  217. More numbers (not rounded off) from the BILLBOARD 200

    53 KE$HA ANIMAL 22,508 161 8,635 1,040,203
    66 UNDERWOOD*CARRIE PLAY ON 18,150 53 11,895 1,828,445
    90 BOYLE*SUSAN I DREAMED A DREAM 14,672 -6 15,672 3,868,441
    93 DEWYZE*LEE LIVE IT UP 14,573 -62 38,581 53,169
    103 GLEE CAST GLEE: THE MUSIC,V3 12,418 72 7,240 523,666
    106 FANTASIA BACK TO ME 11,924 25 9,529 330,195
    125 GLEE CAST GLEE: THE MUSIC V1 10,022 69 5,919 1,030,388
    164 GLEE CAST GLEE: THE MUSIC, V2 7,660 74 4,394 779,872
    192 UNDERWOOD*CARRIE SOME HEARTS 6,514 144 2,670 7,048,408

  218. That’s nice spin for Jive. In reality, the label would save tons of $$$ without radio promotion, but could rationalize not releasing any singles as marketing Crystal in an “old school” way.

    How similar is this to Taylor’s situation with his single? Someone give me a history lesson. I ‘think’ they released his single AFTER album release, but didn’t support it. Is this correct? Did it have an add date anywhere? IDk how much I’ve got right here.

  219. Allison didn’t have that much hype coming off of Idol. Yes she had Michael Slezak, but I think his coverage seems to skew the perception. Allison did get a GMA gig and some of the talk shows.

    She also had that Twilight thing. I remember being surprised how that didn’t translate into bigger sales for her.

  220. Adam didn’t have limited promotion, and he sure as heck had more promo than Lee did. I’m going to go out on a short limb, and say that Adam would not have sold as much as he has, which is less than some of the other alums, who’ve even managed to have bigger hits than Adam has, without the promo that he’s received.

    Their’s a big difference between Adam and Lee, Adam was the biggest star coming off of his season and he had a lot of buzz. He deserved it for being a phenomenal performer. Lee from Season 9, the most lackluster season ever of Idol, had no buzz at all. Adam got a lot of media attention from outside of Idol and it was free promotion. Adam certan couldn’t control what the media said or wrote about him. Whether he would have sold less if he had less promo, who knows and do anyone really care. The main thing is he got a lot of attention then and he still is getting a lot of attention now. He’s one of only three Idols who’s album is still selling after a year on the charts. He’s coming off a world tour and about to release a acoustic album. I don’t think RCA is going to complain about over a million albums sold and over 3,000,000 downloads worldwide and still counting.

  221. You all will be happy to know that I just visited my local Target and found albums there for Adam, Kris, Archie and Lee.

  222. 106 FANTASIA BACK TO ME 11,924 25 9,529 330,195

    Glad to see Fantasia’s album is still selling well. I am going to buy a copy of her album as a Christmas present for my mom. Anyone who hasn’t listened to it, it’s great.

  223. HotHotHot:
    12/01/2010 at 6:36 pm
    You all will be happy to know that I just visited my local Target and found albums there for Adam, Kris, Archie and Lee.

    My local Walmart has restocked Adam’s FYE.

  224. One way for a label to monitize the Idol deal any more is to get some guarantee of promotional benefit from the show for their current recording artists. I am completely convinced that Universal will have more of their artists featured on Idol next year than they had in the past. So if Universal is treated like iTunes and gets a lot of in-show placement, that is worth millions of dollars in ad exposure and sales.

    So then it doesn’t matter if they have to spend $1 million or $2 million dollars on an album, they already got the benefit. The rest is just gravy.

    Good points!

  225. He deserved it for being a phenomenal performer.

    That’s not the main only reason why he was getting buzz.

    I don’t think RCA is going to complain about over a million albums sold and over 3,000,000 downloads worldwide and still counting.

    Who said they were complaining? My point is that it makes no sense to compare how much Adam sold, with what Lee has sold, because of the amount of promotion that each received.

  226. And all 1 million selling albums are not certified Platinum. Sometimes the label/artist doesn’t both to file for certification in a timely matter. (The accounting charge is high and charged to the artist. The plaque is cheap.)

    Are you referring to the RIAA audit fees for certification? They aren’t high:

    All certification audits are conducted for a fee. If multiple sales levels are simultaneously certified, only one audit certification fee is charged. Companies requesting their initial certification audit must incur any travel expenses by the RIAA®’s independent auditor. The charge for certifications is $350 for RIAA® member companies. Non-members are charged $450 per certification, which must be pre-paid.

    http://www.riaa.com/goldandplatinum.php?content_selector=certification

  227. Crystal capturing a lot of over 45 year old album buyers, seems like a stretch to me.

    I completely disagree. At the concert tour, on Twitter, here on this site, and among my own peers who are fans, all give evidence supporting the fact that Crystal is very popular among 40-somethings and beyond. To suggest she’s a tween sensation, or more popular among the very young, is hopelessly incorrect.

    Half of Idol’s audience is over 45 and they did not vote heavily for her — or she would have won.

    I completely disagree. All evidence points to Idol voting being heavily skewed to tweens and those who block vote on cell phones.

    I also do not think that many people over 45 are nostalgic for neo-60’s folk rock and/or protest songs, the trend is toward escapism — similar to the 1930’s and 1970’s — we are in another period of hard times and uncertainty.

    I completely disagree. Being 43, I can tell you that in my age group acoustic rock music from the 60’s and 70’s is still very much popular, and that there is no evidence that music in the style of the 30’s would be well received.

    Also, Crystal may be a folk style artist, but she is not calling for social protest in any way on this album. It would be a huge leap, and an inaccurate one at that, to suggest a cover of For What It’s Worth somehow makes her a radical or a protest artist.

  228. How similar is this to Taylor’s situation with his single? Someone give me a history lesson. I ‘think’ they released his single AFTER album release, but didn’t support it. Is this correct? Did it have an add date anywhere? IDk how much I’ve got right here.

    Taylor’s first single came out a couple of months after his album was released. I think everybody involved knew that they were just going to profit off of the soul patrol, and that they wouldn’t put any real effort into promoting Taylor to radio, because they were not going to play his music. I don’t think his situation is comparable to Crystal’s, except that, like Crystal, there are people outside of the Soul Patrol who like his music and performance style, and Arista and 19 could have promoted them to those people if they had just tried. Maybe Jive and Gina will actually try to promote Crystal to the people who like her music.

  229. Sorry, I also don’t see how people’s disappointment with AI last season has NOTHING to do with Lee or Crystal or any of the contestants. It was a disappointing and boring season for many because of the contestants, of which Lee apparently was the cream of the crop (if that’s what winning Idol means). Of course, people’s disappointment with AI had to do with the contestants and with the performances by those contestants. If Lee had been interesting enough to capture people with his vocal talent or performance style, there would have been more people anticipating his album and wanting to buy it based on his voice. Same goes for Crystal.

    Season 9 was dull because Paula was gone, there was a lack of chemistry between the judges, too much time was spent on dull judges, there was too much filler and general viewer fatigue. There was less singing than in any previous season. If we had seen more of the contestants, it might not have been a boring season.

  230. IA with both car and bridgette12. Having promos doesn’t guarantee one anything. Ex: Kris was on the motherload of all promos(American Idol Finale)20 million people tuned in. It’s a spot most artist would kill for. He was the winner the year before who supposedly won by a landslide to a built in audience that knows who he is. He had a single that was already platinum at the time and introduced his new single “The Truth”. So he was no stranger, but yet he sold…

    Week Ending 05/30/10
    Kris Allen “Kris Allen” 2K (+46%) Total: 304K
    Kris Allen “Live Like We’re Dying” 16K (-11%) Total: 1.443M
    No sales figures for “the Truth”.

    So point is promos is not the magic pill that some may think. 19m isn’t a miracle worker and they aren’t in the charity business either, they want their cut so if they can get you the promos they will go out of their way to get it but the other party has to want to have you. Once you get the promos you have to convince the public to now buy your product. Not so easy for most artists.

  231. I completely disagree. Being 43, I can tell you that in my age group acoustic rock music from the 60’s and 70’s is still very much popular, and that there is no evidence that music in the style of the 30’s would be well received.

    Also, Crystal may be a folk style artist, but she is not calling for social protest in any way on this album. It would be a huge leap, and an inaccurate one at that, to suggest a cover of For What It’s Worth somehow makes her a radical or a protest artist.

    LOL. Q3 is saying that people today have the same escapist mentality that prevailed in the 1930’s and 1970’s, not that music from those eras will be popular now.

  232. To the majority of people, they are new artists, and radio and consumers have shown that this is how they are going to start treating them.

    I do agree that this causes an issue for the label, and it seems like it’s something that may have been getting to Sony, even though it was 19’s decision to go to UMG. It will be interesting to see if this issue changes how UMG deals with the winners, and anyone who they want to sign.

    I couldn’t agree more, compounded by the current state of the marketplace and the declining interest in the show.

  233. Season 9 was dull because Paula was gone, the lack of chemistry between the judges, too much time spent on dull judges, too much filler and general view fatigue. There was less singing than in any previous season. If we had seen more of the contestants, it might not have been a boring season.

    Didn’t the contestants sing the same amount of songs that they sang the previous year?? Didn’t the contestants have about the same amount of video before each song as they did the year before?? Weren’t most critics complaints about the contestants lack of exciting performances?? Also, with the return to the top 24, each contestant performed more before the public than Season 8, where each person in the top 12 only performed once prior to the finals.

    ETA: Looked it up. Crystal and Lee both sang 18 songs from Top 24 to the finale. Adam and Kris both sang 16 songs from Top 36 to the finale. So, no, there was no less singing in Season 9 than in Season 8.

  234. Also, Crystal may be a folk style artist, but she is not calling for social protest in any way on this album. It would be a huge leap, and an inaccurate one at that, to suggest a cover of For What It’s Worth somehow makes her a radical or a protest artist.

    It’s not just the choice of songs on the albums, it’s the environments where she has chosen to appear post-AI (that San Francisco event, for one) and various other things.

    Totally her right if that’s who she is and what she wants to be about, but not everyone will embrace that. Whether because they don’t share those viewpoints, or they aren’t into the idea of 60s retro folk-rock, lol.

  235. Season 9 was dull because Paula was gone, the lack of chemistry between the judges, too much time spent on dull judges, too much filler and general view fatigue. There was less singing than in any previous season. If we had seen more of the contestants, it might not have been a boring season.

    Season 9 was bordering on like “watching paint dry”. hee hee Couldn’t resist. The storyline beat to death by the judges and TPTB of S9 was that one of the contestants was a paint salesman.

  236. IMO, the rest of this sentence – “Season 9 was dull because…..”” is a multiple choice, and totally subjective. Also. There were people who did not find it dull, perhaps because they liked a particular cast member.

    Anecdotally, which is really all I have – I caught this season the same way I did Season8 – random videos from this very site…so I had no interest in judges or chemistry, or filler I wasn’t even watching. The problem, for me, was strictly the inconsistency of the performances and the vocals…and genres and song choices that didn’t interest me. Most of the guest stars had no relevance ‘to me’, either. That was reflected in a lot of post season comments across the web, as well.

    If the casting doesn’t get any better, I’ll watch next season the same way, randomly, with no real interest. The ‘idea’ of the show was more interesting than the show itself was. JMO.

  237. Well, I feel sad for Lee, but I would have been more surprised had he been selling well. Lee is not an electric performer, not a pop star. SS is not a good song and does his voice no favors; it seems tailered to different/better music. I think he might have done better with ballads or a Christmas album first time out. Um, I guess I think he should have been sold as HAC; I don’t think his fan base is Bieberphiles.

  238. He had a single that was already platinum at the time and introduced his new single “The Truth”.

    Except neither of these statements were uttered on Idol. LLWD was completely ignored, and the “The Truth” was not introduced as his new single, nor was his album ever promoted. Oh and don’t forget Ryan talking over the beginning of the song. The only season 8 people that got promote their album was Adam, Allison and Danny.

    Hopefully Lee will get better treatment.

  239. SS is not a good song and does his voice no favors; it seems tailered to different/better music. I think he might have done better with ballads or a Christmas album first time out. Um, I guess I think he should have been sold as HAC; I don’t think his fan base is Bieberphiles.

    Lee is being marketed as an HAC artist. His single was given an adds date only for HAC stations. I actually thought that SS could crossover to POP though and maybe eventually it will. It’s still moving up on HAC, so maybe there’s still a chance. I think he’ll get another single from RCA and maybe that will do the trick. I don’t think it will help album sales that much if he’s out of the top 200 by that time, but it might.

  240. Who said they were complaining? My point is that it makes no sense to compare how much Adam sold, with what Lee has sold, because of the amount of promotion that each received.

    You seem convinced that Adam was “given” more promotion than Lee. How can that be when Lee is an Idol winner and Adam was a runner up? The opportunities Adam got beyond the norm were generated because, well, he is Adam. Adam is his own buzz factory, LOL. All the extra “promotion” Adam got he earned on his own, just like he earned an international tour and continued sales. Lee is getting the kind of promotion he earned for his run on the show and his win, the rest is up to him.

  241. People today have the same escapist mentality that prevailed in the 1930’s and 1970’s.

    I was there in the 70’s and it really was not an escapist music era. It was incredibly diverse, and if anything Crystal’s music style on this album is straight from the 70’s acoustic country rock scene of the Eagles and Linda Ronstadt, and the singer/songwriter folk style of James Taylor, Jim Croce and Harry Chapin…hardly examples of frivolous escapism.

  242. Sony paid a lot of money in advances to 19E and these artists — $375K to the winner, $300K to the #2 — and the did it because of the marketing power of American Idol. And it worked for about half of the artists they signed.

    I guess I was thinking since the winner of American Idol’s prize was a record deal, that the American Idol franchise maybe paid for some of the advance money. Is this advance money all coming from the label? Does the winner get some money at all from the American Idol franchise when they win? (I know they get a car from Ford.) To me, it seems reasonable that the advance would come from the franchise, since they are the ones who actually held the contest. I’m sure I’m way off here – I’m not a huge follower of labels and all that stuff, just a long-time AI fan.

    As a fan, this past season was way, way skewed to not promote the contestants at all. It seemed all about the judges. At first they were trying to smooth over the loss of Paula, then it became all about Simon’s last year. The contestants were just a very distant afterthought. Ricky Minor’s band was horrible – they seemed to be just going through the motions. Even Ryan seemed out of it, or at least not as “on” as he usually was. All in all, I think the contestants were way better than we were shown on the show. This was confirmed to me when I heard them live on tour this year. Crystal and Lee were definitely the best of the 10, but they were all so much better in person. I blame the show for a lot of their post-Idol sales woes, because the show’s production was horrible.

  243. I was there in the 70’s and it really was not an escapist music era. It was incredibly diverse, and if anything Crystal’s music style on this album is straight from the 70’s acoustic country rock scene of the Eagles and Linda Ronstadt, and the singer/songwriter folk style of James Taylor, Jim Croce and Harry Chapin…hardly examples of frivolous escapism.

    I like Crystal but I think this is unfortunately exactly why I don’t think she’ll have good sales for her style of music. I hope I’m wrong, for her sake.

  244. I looked it up the other day on the RIAA site. It’s like a couple hundred bucks for the audit.

    For albums the record label charges the artist for all the paperwork and accounting for wholesale sales that is required by the RIAA. Even though it seems like it should be inexpensive it is sometimes not. The RIAA charges only for the plaques. Two different things.

    Elliegrll:
    12/01/2010 at 5:36 pm

    But you should be able to count on them doing something, or else there is no incentive to offer a record deal as a prize for the label IMO.

    No new artist is going to sell 39,000 copies of his cd in the first week, if he only has one song out that is below 30 on HAC with an AI around 1.5. That is the bump that Lee got from being on AI.

    Elliegrll:
    12/01/2010 at 6:05 pm

    Q3: Many Idols have sold more without radio support….

    Yes they have, but that has nothing to do with the quote that I was responding to, which had to do with idols, mainly Lee, in comparison to new artists.

    I disagree with the premise that radio is essential to selling a new artist. It is not now and wasn’t in the 1950’s.

    Most new artists cannot sell without radio exposure. The main exceptions are artists who become famous because of television — Elvis in his early career, many Idol alums I posted four examples, Moby, Susan Boyle, Jackie Evancho, Glee and so on. The other emerging exception is YouTube — Justin Bieber is a hit and became famous on YouTube not radio.

    And the most famous exception to the “radio is essential” premise are The Beatles. They were huge in the US not because of radio (US radio would not play their music) but because of TV. A CBS news broadcast including a performance clip was broadcast a few weeks before their scheduled US debut and Capital rush released “I Want To Hold Your Hand” in the US — sold over 2 million copies in 2 weeks. Radio got over the issue they had with the Beatles hair and just played the music.

    Idol, even during last season, was the #1 TV show in the largest music market in America. Over 20 million people saw Lee preforming on TV twice a week for 11 weeks. That is an unmatched marketing platform. He is not just another new artist. He is a TV reality show star — from the biggest TV reality show in the world.

    Elliegrll:
    12/01/2010 at 6:05 pm

    Q3: No chance that they will make money on Lee.

    On Monday you said it’s too early to right Lee off, or speculate on his future. What’s changed since then? Sony won’t make their money back this week or next, but who knows whether or not Lee manage to get a few hit singles.

    I posted that it was too soon to write Lee off and I still believe that. But I never posted that RCA would make money on Lee’s debut. Two different things completely.

    RCA would need Lee to sell millions of singles to close the financial gap they have on this album. Will not happen.

    What could happen is that Lee could have a couple small hits that convince RCA to give him another shot. Or he could write a hit song for someone else. Or someone could cover one of his songs from LIU and have a big hit. Or a million other scenarios. But RCA will not recoup the money from recording this album. A failed album — and for an Idol winner, this album is a sales failure — is not the end of an artist’s career.

    Katy Perry had 4 record labels in 7 years. She has an album that was recorded and never released. She was pretty much written off when she was signed by Capital in 2007. It is not always a straight line to success.

  245. It was incredibly diverse, and if anything Crystal’s music style on this album is straight from the 70’s acoustic country rock scene of the Eagles and Linda Ronstadt, and the singer/songwriter folk style of James Taylor, Jim Croce and Harry Chapin

    I was at a family gathering last weekend and there was some diverse easy listening back round music playing. Oddly enough, I heard 2 comments from a very hip 15 year old teen and a guy who´s 21. Oddly enough, the only time they mentioned “great song” was when they heard Jim Croce and Cat Stevens! This tells me, if the teens are exposed to something else than most of the crap on top 40, they´ll appreciate it. Btw, they didn´t go “uh, must be from the 70´s” Not that they would know how to differentiate between year´s….good music is good music and doesn´t need labeling.

  246. Elliegrll:
    12/01/2010 at 6:54 pm
    That’s not the main only reason why he was getting buzz

    .

    So he was getting some buzz because he was gay, doesn’t take away from the fact that people were talking about his perfomrances each week.

    Who said they were complaining? My point is that it makes no sense to compare how much Adam sold, with what Lee has sold, because of the amount of promotion that each received.

    When has comparisons been limited just because one Idol got more promotion then another Idol. Each one of these Idols releasing albums, had a audience of over 20,000,000 people each week watching them perform. They went on tour in front of thousands, went on talkshows in front of millions and the winner especially, have the title as added promotion. How much more promotion can Adam get that puts him in such a advantage over these others guys who were seen by millions also. If a Idol can’t sell well after all of that promotion, the problem is with the artist, not the amount of promotion he’s been given.

  247. He deserved it for being a phenomenal performer.

    That’s not the main only reason why he was getting buzz.

    Totally. Lee needs to come out of the closet. That might help to sell the album.. LOL

  248. I guess I was thinking since the winner of American Idol’s prize was a record deal, that the American Idol franchise maybe paid for some of the advance money. Is this advance money all coming from the label? Does the winner get some money at all from the American Idol franchise when they win? (I know they get a car from Ford.) To me, it seems reasonable that the advance would come from the franchise, since they are the ones who actually held the contest. I’m sure I’m way off here – I’m not a huge follower of labels and all that stuff, just a long-time AI fan.

    You can read it all in the CKx SEC filings. I have posted the links here many times over the past year.

    Quite simply — Sony pays an advance to 19E and 19 pays part of that advance to the winner and other Idol finalists that Sony choose to sign to a record contract. We do not know what Sony pays to 19, but the winner gets a $375K advance, #2 gets $300K advance, as so on.

    19E also gets $5 million a year from Fox for maintaining a major label record deal for the show’s contestants. This was signed in 2005.

    And 19E get royalties on all of the Idols that they sign to 19R sales. With one exception, Tamyra Gray from the first season, no one has been signed to 19R who did not get a Sony contract and, it appears that 19R only signs the winners (guaranteed, and Sony was required to sign) and the artists that Sony have selected for recording contracts. 19R is basically a financial shell that collects and distributes money — and a large part of that through Season 9 went to Simon Cowel.

  249. HDD is predicting that SuBo will have the #1 album this week outselling Kanye, Nicki and the BEP’s new album! Early congrats on going Plat, crazy cat lady. ;)

    That could be Miss Kris Kringle herself, Susan Boyle, if her Gift keeps on giving in the 225k-250k range, which should be enough to beat the likes of Kanye West and Nicki Minaj in their second week.

  250. I was there in the 70’s and it really was not an escapist music era. It was incredibly diverse, and if anything Crystal’s music style on this album is straight from the 70’s acoustic country rock scene of the Eagles and Linda Ronstadt, and the singer/songwriter folk style of James Taylor, Jim Croce and Harry Chapin…hardly examples of frivolous escapism.

    Negativo.. really there must be some sort explanation for DISCO! LOL

  251. Oh. So, probably a stupid question, but what’s the difference between 19, 19E and 19R?

  252. a large part of that through Season 9 went to Simon Cowel.

    Q3, do you mean Simon Fuller? Wasn’t he the power behind 19?

  253. For albums the record label charges the artist for all the paperwork and accounting for wholesale sales that is required by the RIAA.

    Are you telling me that music industry don’t do all these paperwork and accounting as a matter of course? Those things that all other industries do? Says a lot about the music industry if true.

    The charge by RIAA ($350 for member) is for the certification audit, not the plaque. They may purchase the RIAA plaque once certified ($135 to $275 according to wiki).

  254. Disco was part of the divertsity in popular music of the 70’s. You had everything from Donna Summer to Lynard Skynard to John Denver topping the charts. It was a great time.

  255. Disco was part of the divertsity in popular music of the 70’s. You had everything from Donna Summer to Lynard Skynard to John Denver topping the charts. It was a great time.

    Don’t forget the “Glam Rockers”.

  256. I love the Top40 music. People won’t buy them if they’re crap. I would say crap music are those that don’t sell, as in not worth the $1.99.

  257. Q3, do you mean Simon Fuller? Wasn’t he the power behind 19?

    No, Simon Cowell gets a large portion of the revenue from 19R thru Season 9. It was part of his agreement with 19E and Simon Fuller in 2005 to stay on the show. It is covered in public filings and in the press. Just search on Google.

  258. 19R is basically a financial shell that collects and distributes money — and a large part of that through Season 9 went to Simon Cowel.

    19R owns the recording rights for the artists. The Sony deal is a distribution deal only. That’s why you’ll see the songs listed as 19R/Sony on things like radio add boards. Simon Cowell has no relation to 19E at all other than as an employee of their show, did you mean Simon Fuller?

    Oh. So, probably a stupid question, but what’s the difference between 19, 19E and 19R?

    19E is the parent company, which in turn is owned by CKx. 19R is the subsidiary of 19E that owns the recording rights for the contestants. 19M is the subsidiary company that manages certian signed contestants. “19” is just a shorthand term for the whole mess, lol.

  259. Oh. Thanks so much for the info. It still all seems a little complicated to me. LOL.

  260. I love the Top40 music. People won’t buy them if they’re crap. I would say crap music are those that don’t sell, as in not worth the $1.99.

    Yes, because SALES are what is indicative of quality. The Hurt Locker < Garfield 2 for example. SuBo is like high art I guess.

  261. I love the Top40 music. People won’t buy them if they’re crap. I would say crap music are those that don’t sell, as in not worth the $1.99.

    This statement makes me so sad.

  262. I think some seem to not recognize that it is more than promotion that will make people interested in you. It is talent, personality, style, showmanship etc. All of these people are not playing on the same level but it is not because of promotion. If Oprah wants Adam and Cook on she gets them. If idol wants Adam to mentor they get him. If the AMA wanted Kris to present they got him. You can’t make people more interested in you than they are. It does not matter how much the fans say it is not fair. It is what it is. Take Adam for instance. The UK has not played his music so that puts him at a disadvantage for sales. Yet he just had 4 sold out shows there. Now the shows were not as large as the ones that he had in the states but he still sold them out. The lack of radio play has not stopped him from trying to get his name out there. The lack of radio play did not stop some in being intersted in coming out to see him.

  263. Yeah, kind of sad, nobody wants to buy the so-called ‘good quality’ music. *scratch head*

  264. I love the Top40 music. People won’t buy them if they’re crap. I would say crap music are those that don’t sell, as in not worth the $1.99.

    Yes, because SALES are what is indicative of quality. The Hurt Locker < Garfield 2 for example. SuBo is like high art I guess.

    And California Gurls and Tick Tock are epitomes of quality. Right.

    Esqt:
    12/01/2010 at 8:30 pm

    Yeah, kind of sad, nobody wants to buy the so-called ‘good quality’ music. *scratch head*

    Unfortunately, most people are mindless sheep who ‘like’ what they can digest and excrete the easiest. None of such best-sellers will survive three years on the ipods of the people who downloaded them.

  265. stella189:
    12/01/2010 at 7:53 pm
    Totally. Lee needs to come out of the closet. That might help to sell the album.. LOL

    If that’s all it takes to help sell albums, then I can think of a couple more Idols that need to come out.

  266. Great post car.
    By the way CHUM FM our big radio station in Toronto just added Sleepwalker today.

  267. I listen to all kinds of music from classical to pop and they all have crapola music.

  268. The charge by RIAA ($350 for member) is for the certification audit, not the plaque. They may purchase the RIAA plaque once certified ($135 to $275 according to wiki).

    You beat me to it. Yeah, I don’t get how RIAA can call it an audit if that fee is just for the plaque. Makes no sense to me…

  269. For albums the record label charges the artist for all the paperwork and accounting for wholesale sales that is required by the RIAA. Even though it seems like it should be inexpensive it is sometimes not. The RIAA charges only for the plaques. Two different things.

    That appears incorrect according to the certification process described on the RIAA website:

    The certification process begins with an independent sales audit of each title by Gelfand, Rennert & Feldman, a highly respected accounting firm that has been auditing title sales for the RIAA® for more than 20 years.

    The audit calculates what product has been shipped for sale, net after returns, versus product used for promotional purposes, for the life of the release. When certifying audio and music video releases, the independent auditor is careful to survey the entire music marketplace. An artist’s Gold® or Platinum® award represents sales through retail, record clubs, rackjobbers, and all other ancillary markets that legitimately distribute music. Once a title’s sales has been audited and verified as having reached requisite levels, a formal certification report is issued and sent to the title’s record company.

    http://www.riaa.com/goldandplatinum.php?content_selector=certification

  270. ETA: Looked it up. Crystal and Lee both sang 18 songs from Top 24 to the finale. Adam and Kris both sang 16 songs from Top 36 to the finale. So, no, there was no less singing in Season 9 than in Season 8.

    At least from a viewer’s perspective (and a complaint I’ve seen lodged by many others) there seemed to be more crap and less time with the contestants, singing or otherwise. It’s all about perception…my perception is that the crap overshadowed everything else.

  271. Promotion for Crystal:

    ginaorr: @crystalbowersox will be on @JayLeno Friday December 10, @Regis_and_Kelly Monday December 1319 minutes ago

  272. If that’s all it takes to help sell albums, then I can think of a couple more Idols that need to come out.

    You might be on to something there


    http://tinyurl.com/3333vmz

    LOL! That wasn’t the two I was thinking about.

  273. LOL! That wasn’t the two I was thinking about.

    Jordin? Bucky? Mandisa?

  274. OMG, The comments on that Queerty article were hilarious. Thanks for the laugh!

  275. gangreen29:
    12/01/2010 at 9:03 pm
    Jordin? Bucky? Mandisa?

    “Don’t tell, Don’t ask, applies to Idols alone with the military

  276. Lol I’m sure Mandisa coming out will do wonders to her career in the Christian contemporary market :)
    I’m really impressed that she’s doing so well in her genre. But I’m not that surprised because she was one of the really good singers during season 5 of idol. Not sure Lee would have made the tour that season.

    For some of the earlier seasons, there were a lot of comments about the fact that only 2 or 3 of the male contestants were not gay.

  277. aa618892:
    12/01/2010 at 9:08 pm

    OMG, The comments on that Queerty article were hilarious. Thanks for the laugh!

    Since I’ve only recently started all that follow-a-celebrity-i-media thing, I’ve never before read stuff like that. Are those people in the comments discussing seriously or just kidding around? Because that discussion is a thing of beauty and I laughed my ass off.

  278. LMAO, leave it to Queerty they sure can’t get enough of Adam. Those comments are priceless.

  279. I would say crap music are those that don’t sell, as in not worth the $1.99.

    So in other words, since Mozart’s symphonies or Rachmaninoff’s 2nd piano concerto aren’t in the BB200, they’re crap? Sorry, I really can’t stand the thought that the only way to qualify good music is by how much it sells. I’m not a big fan of Lee but I would pick him over almost any rap/hip hop artist out there, because most artists of those genres are, IMO, crap. Yet they sell a ton – moreso than Lee and moreso than many other artists/genres. I sure don’t believe that their sales make them the pinnacle of musical artistry though, and I can’t take anyone seriously who only believes that sales = quality.

    But the in the end, music is an art and therefore subjective, so how can you really quantify anything as “good” or “bad?” There are some ways of evaluating performances or recordings, but sales seem to be near the bottom, except as a gauge of popularity.

  280. And California Gurls and Tick Tock are epitomes of quality. Right.

    As one who’s definitely not a fan of CHR/Top 40, Tik Tok was actually a catchy song. I considered buying Ke$ha’s album based off that song. I don’t know what it is about her but it’s as if I can sense in her music the sarcasm and wit – she doesn’t seem to think she’s making the most important contributions to art and she doesn’t care, she’s just having fun with it. IMO it shows in her music, simple and lowbrow as it might be.

  281. CindyM:
    12/01/2010 at 8:58 pm
    Promotion for Crystal:

    ginaorr: @crystalbowersox will be on @JayLeno Friday December 10, @Regis_and_Kelly Monday December 1319 minutes ago

    This is good to see. Now I don’t recall, is Friday considered to be the best late night slot, or is that the worst one, viewership wise? Regardless, she’s doing something.

    Crystal hasn’t been on Letterman at all has she? I’ll have to force myself to watch Leno that night just to see her, I usually can’t stand him.

  282. Q3:Quite simply — Sony pays an advance to 19E and 19 pays part of that advance to the winner and other Idol finalists that Sony choose to sign to a record contract. We do not know what Sony pays to 19, but the winner gets a $375K advance, #2 gets $300K advance, as so on.

    To clarify then, Q3, when you’re referring to the cost of a particular album, you’re talking about the advance paid to 19E, the $ paid for manufacturing (though not recording) and distributing the CD, the advertising you see in the papers and radio play? I’m just trying to tease out where the $ is coming from for these albums (i.e., 19 vs RCA). Is 19 also still paying for promotion? Do they have a role in radio play as well?

  283. Elliegrll:
    12/01/2010 at 5:08 pm

    I think that a lot of people can appreciate good vocals, but that’s not the main reason why people will buy music. Crystal is producing the type of music that is hard to promote, especially when it is being performed by someone who is coming off of AI.

    Yeah, but there are still a lot of people who think she’s a “great” singer. That in and of itself will translate into a certain amount of sales. There are also a lot of people who buy albums but never listen to the radio. I suspect that a lot of CB’s fans fall into that category.

  284. This is good to see. Now I don’t recall, is Friday considered to be the best late night slot, or is that the worst one, viewership wise? Regardless, she’s doing something.

    I’m not sure if it’s true for the late night show, but Friday is pretty much considered dead for network shows, it’s the day of the week (excluding Saturday) where ratings are the lowest because people go out that day.

  285. Yay glad for all AI alumnae who has had increase in their album sales, especially for Carrie’s debut album ‘Some Hearts’ that has had big increase, it’s a 5yo album but never die :)

    BTW, Carrie’s Hollywood Bowl concert boxscores numbers are up, and it’s really good number :)

    Carrie Underwood, Billy Currington, Sons of Sylvia
    Hollywood Bowl
    Los Angeles, Calif.
    Oct. 2, 2010
    $1,020,188
    16,583 /
    16,848
    1 /
    0
    $127.50, $25
    Bill Silva Presents

  286. BTW I just wanna backup my earlier post to say its not directed to anyone here but rather me venting due to my being annoyed seeing elsewhere some Lee fans constantly flying off the handle on the defense if his numbers are put down. I got irriated today when someone (who I hung out with at his IHR show!!) called me a hater. I mean seriously WTF? Sorry but I AM a fan but I’m also not the type to handle someone with kidgloves. Idol fans analyze numbers and the simple fact is Lee’s are low. Argh. Pointing this out doesn’t make you a hater!

    ITA. I’m a big Lee fan, and have always been, and I’ll be the first to admit he does go off key and all that. Maybe I’m overly realistic but I just don’t see the point in sugarcoating. The numbers are what they are, no point giving excuses.

  287. 19R owns the recording rights for the artists. The Sony deal is a distribution deal only. That’s why you’ll see the songs listed as 19R/Sony on things like radio add boards. Simon Cowell has no relation to 19E at all other than as an employee of their show, did you mean Simon Fuller?

    This whole thing is very complicated and I do not know all the parts and pieces. Plus, it would take a book.

    The Sony deal is not solely a distribution deal. Distributors get product into retail stores. Record labels create recorded music, get the music recorded and manufactured, develop the packaging, promote and market the product. Sony is preforming all of the functions of a record label and a distributor. If it was solely a distribution deal the listing would be just 19 Recordings.

    Example of artist with a distribution deal: Elliot Yamin is signed to Hickory Records. Hickory Records is distributed by Sony Music’s RED Distribution unit. Hickory and RED are owned by Sony Music Entertainment. But Elliot’s label is listed as Hickory Records.

    A 19R artist: Kris is listed as Jive/19 Recordings reflecting the joint venture licensing arrangement between 19E and Sony.

    19R does not do anything but select the label. That is why I refer to 19R as a financial shell. It has no staff — it just holds assets — recording contracts and royalty rights. Sony does all of the functions of a record label. The license is a legal structure but the functional record label is the Sony label.

    The Simon Cowell and Simon Fuller relationship is incredibly complex but in terms of there personal competition and their financial relationship from 2002 until 2010.

    In 2005 Simon Cowell and Simon Fuller settled their long running dispute. The dispute was about Cowell starting X Factor which Fuller claimed infringed on the Pop Idol copyright. Fuller X Factor producer FremantleMedia, Mr Cowell and his firms Simco and Syco for £100 Million. At the same time Simon’s contract with Idol was up and he planned to leave the show.

    They reached a settlement — all the details are not known, but some needed to be disclosed because 19E is owned by CKx which is a publicly traded company in the US. The settlement blocked Cowell from bring X Factor to the US for 5 years — that is now up. Fuller got a piece of X Factor UK. Simon agreed to be a judge on Idol for 5 more years thru AI9. Here is the 8-K filing from November 2005. http://ir.ckx.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1104659-05-57935

    New York, New York – November 29, 2005 – 19 Entertainment Limited , a wholly-owned subsidiary of CKX, Inc. (NASDAQ: CKXE) , together with Simon Cowell, Fox Broadcasting, FremantleMedia and SonyBMG, issued a joint announcement today confirming they had reached agreements that will guarantee at least four, and as many as six, more seasons of American Idol beginning with American Idol 5 , which is set to air starting in January 2006. As part of the deal, Fox announced that it had reached an agreement with Cowell to keep him on the hit series for at least five additional seasons.

    …..

    Agreement among 19 Recordings Limited, 19 TV Limited, Simco Limited, CKX UK Holdings Limited, 19 Entertainment Limited and Sony BMG Music Entertainment (UK) Limited

    • SonyBMG, through its wholly-owned subsidiary Simco Limited, will continue as the record label for American Idol artists for five additional seasons through American Idol 9.

    ….

    Simco Limited (operates under the brand name SYCO) and was founded in 2002 by Simon Cowell. Simco is a joint venture between Sony and Simon Cowell. In the US Simco Limited operates under the Syco Music Label and has a deal with Sony for America’s Got Talent and for X Factor America. Simco and Sony have a complex relationship but Cowell gets a revenue share in the form of royalties.

    There is a lot of false info about the Cowell-Idol deal. None can be confirmed by public records but there is no doubt that for AI1-AI2 and AI5-AI9 Simco, the Cowell-Sony joint venture had exclusive right of first refusal to Idols.

    There is an interesting document that was released in 2005 and has been widely circulated. It is a copy of the 2005 Cowell settlement with 19E. It details many of the relationships and the process that 19 is required to use to select the label. http://contracts.onecle.com/ckx/american-idol.lic.2005.11.28.shtml

    In 2010 Sony decided to stay with Simon Cowell and bet on X Factor America vs. Idol. And this fight will be very interesting. And just to make it more fun, Freemantle Media, the content and production division of RTL Group, Europe’s second largest TV, radio, and production company, has their fingers in all of these “pies” — American Idol, AGT, X-Factors. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FremantleMedia

  288. I had no idea Cowell’s company was involved in the post-idol careers of the Sony/19 signees. Why do we only hear about Jive, RCA and 19?

  289. MonochromaticFriend:
    12/01/2010 at 10:58 pm

    Q3:Quite simply — Sony pays an advance to 19E and 19 pays part of that advance to the winner and other Idol finalists that Sony choose to sign to a record contract. We do not know what Sony pays to 19, but the winner gets a $375K advance, #2 gets $300K advance, as so on.

    To clarify then, Q3, when you’re referring to the cost of a particular album, you’re talking about the advance paid to 19E, the $ paid for manufacturing (though not recording) and distributing the CD, the advertising you see in the papers and radio play? I’m just trying to tease out where the $ is coming from for these albums (i.e., 19 vs RCA). Is 19 also still paying for promotion? Do they have a role in radio play as well?

    19 doesn’t pay for anything.

    All the money for the advance, creation, production and promotion of the Idol albums comes from Sony. 19 invests NO MONEY they collect money from everyone — including the artists they sign. There is nothing to tease out.

    When I refer to what Sony has invested in an album, I mean the total investment — the advances, collaborators, producers, studio time and musicians, tech crew, packaging, manufacturing, marketing and promotion, the radio promo team, the retail field team, distribution, accounting, legal and on and on. Then they have to pay royalties on every sale.

    A low budget major label album can be $1 million. It would be hard to pull off an Idol album for $1 million because of the required advance.

    If RCA did Lee on a really tight budget….

    Artist’s advance: $ 375,000

    19 Entertainment advance: $52,000 maybe more, I cannot find any info on this but I believe it must be at least 15% of the artist’s advance.

    Co-writing and producers guarantees: $100,000 (can be $100,000 a song for one top producer)

    Studio time, musicians, engineers, etc.: $200,000

    Manufacturing and distribution — CDs: $350,000

    Marketing and promotion: $150,000 (a very low budget)

    1 Video – big product placements to offset costs: $70,000

    RCA has spent over $1.2 million already and they haven’t sold an album yet.

    Throw in some tour support, travel to 12 radio promotions, and before you can blink it is $1.5 million.

    Now add in the cost of RCA overhead and the staff who work on Lee’s album and the website and the lawyers and the accountants….

    In the meantime, Lee has sold 52,000 albums at a $6.50 wholesale price — so RCA has $338,000 in total wholesale revenue. And that is assuming that they made no special deals with retailers. (Hard to believe that Amazon dropped with presale price to $7.99 without a deal from RCA to cover their margin.)

    They also have to pay a few royalties to songwriters. If they sell 180K units of LIU — that is $1.2 million in wholesale revenue, around $880K after royalties.

    ——————————————————————

    The numbers above are just the amount of the advances against
    future royalties. Sony pays 19 Entertainment an advance, 19E pays the artists.

    From the CKx 2010 Annual report:

    In the United States and the United Kingdom, the Sony Music record company that licenses the winning artist and/or any of the finalists pays to 19 Entertainment a recoupable advance, out of which 19 Entertainment funds an advance to the finalists/artists.
    Link: http://ir.ckx.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=950123-10-24976

  290. MonochromaticFriend:
    12/02/2010 at 12:47 am

    I had no idea Cowell’s company was involved in the post-idol careers of the Sony/19 signees. Why do we only hear about Jive, RCA and 19?

    Actually, neither did I until someone posted about it here and then I looked at some of the Idol albums and the SYCO logo was plain as day.

    I think that reason it is buried in the financial filings and not really noticed is because Simon is not actively or personally involved with any of the Idol careers — he just makes money from them indirectly.

    He is actively engaged with the X Factor artists careers — and I am just happy to have him far away from the Idols.

  291. Thanks for all the stats, Q3, that cleared up some misapprehensions I had.

  292. mozart4898:

    And California Gurls and Tick Tock are epitomes of quality. Right.

    As one who’s definitely not a fan of CHR/Top 40, Tik Tok was actually a catchy song. I considered buying Ke$ha’s album based off that song. I don’t know what it is about her but it’s as if I can sense in her music the sarcasm and wit – she doesn’t seem to think she’s making the most important contributions to art and she doesn’t care, she’s just having fun with it. IMO it shows in her music, simple and lowbrow as it might be.

    I actually don’t mind Ke$ha, exactly for the same impressions as you. She knows she’s not making evergreens. Tick Tock is an okay song, I’ve heard worse, but it’s not as good, IMHO, as to get the huge sales it did over some other songs in the chart. And I won’t even mention what’s on the Top40 radio over here in my country: not actually bad stuff by our local singers but so hopelessly mediocre that it’s worse than bad.

  293. wow, this thread got exciting when i left, lol! so much to digest. thanks to everyone for the interesting AI data. to Trina, saw your post. sorry, i replied because i thought you were replying to my earlier post. apparently, you had a whole ‘nother issue, lol. well, i hope you’re still friends with those recent acquaintances. see you around here :)

  294. Unfortunately for Lee, I can’t see Idol giving him a particularly strong showcase for his music in the upcoming season, either. Seems to me that the show seeks out guests and gives them placement based on to the extent they think the guest may boost the show’s ratings wiht a desired demographic. That turns into a real Catch-22 for the returning Idols, unfortunately.

  295. With all the promos featuring past idol winners, I would think showcasing the idols would be what they were aiming at. Last season listening to some of the guests, I found myself wondering how they would fare if they were facing the judges!
    Anyhow, I think idol performances would factor in to the nostagia, and give a boost to them too. Didn’t I hear results night was going to be an hour? And judges save? Not sure if that ever worked. IMHO

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