HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Nov 11-17

With 69.42% of reports in, Lady Gaga is set to have the number one album of the week – barely. As noted last week, the predicted 250K-275K in sales are a significant drop from the 1.1M in sales from her last release (even if you remove the Amazon fire-sale albums). While her last album release was eagerly anticipated and hyped, this one has been rather more sedate. No bravado about her having written the best song ever (that turned out to be a Madonna rip-off), no automatic universal acceptance of single, no breathless anticipation about what Gaga might wear here or there. This time she did have a flying dress, but that didn’t seem to generate much energy. With her first album and EP, she got a lot of number ones. Her second album resulted in far less single success (comparatively). Her debut single from this album just isn’t dominating. People seem almost bored of her antics. Can Gaga re-invent herself for her next album, or will she become more of a niche artist with her avid Monsters/fans? 250-275K in sales would be a good week for most artists. It cannot be argued to be anything but a huge collapse after her last album. I would not be surprised if Gaga is at the lower end of the predictions if not below (when HDD keeps lowering your predictions, they are chasing sales dropping faster than anticipated throughout the week – and that rarely bodes well for the second week. The opposite is true if they keep raising your predictions).

Meanwhile, in his second week, Eminem might actually challenge Gaga for number 1. It’s likely, based on tracking numbers, he’ll be just behind her though. Now 48 is debuting in third (it features a track by Voice judge Adam Levine’s Maroon 5). That wretched Duck Christmas album is showing amazing legs (or should I say wings?) at 4th. I honestly thought that thing would drop like a stone (or a duck shot out of the sky) after their most ardent fans bought their gag gifts. I guess people need more gags than I previously thought. Maybe there is a shortage of signing trout plaques this year, so people have to get this album instead. IDK. Just, IDK.

Kelly Clarkson, who has a real Christmas album is forced to trail behind the ducks (watch out for the poop!) in 5th. Katy Perry slides down to 6th (will we be saying that about Gaga in 2 weeks – I don’t think so), Lorde is 7th, Drake is 8th, Luke Bryan is invincible at 9th (and may I add, he is probably one of the reasons behind the success of that Duck Christmas album too? I feel the urge to hiss like a goose) and Miley rounds out the top 10.

Susan Boyle from BGT is showing consistency at 19th and Kellie Pickler debuts right behind her 20th. Considering that Kellie is struggling for airplay and is now on an independent label, 20th is pretty good. Cassadee Pope from the Voice and Scotty McCreery from Idol are neck-and-neck at 35th and 36th. Idol Adam Lambert and X-Factorer Josh Krajcik are featured on Avicii’s album at 44th.

CHART DATE: 11/18/2013
LAST UPDATE: 11/18/2013 16:41:30
NOW IN: 69.42%

LW TW artist / album label power index
— 1 LADY GAGA ARTPOP 194,054
1 2 EMINEM MARSHALL MATHERS LP 2 140,575
— 3 NOW 48 VARIOUS ARTISTS 83,164
3 4 THE ROBERTSONS DUCK THE HALLS: ROBERTSON FAMILY 43,456
6 5 KELLY CLARKSON WRAPPED IN RED 34,711
4 6 KATY PERY PRISM 34,349
8 7 LORDE PURE HEROINE 25,363
7 8 DRAKE NOTHING WAS THE SAME 23,994
11 9 LUKE BRYAN CRASH MY PARTY 22,893
12 10 MILEY CYRUS BANGERZ 18,235

21 19 SUSAN BOYLE HOME FOR CHRISTMAS 8,754
— 20 KELLIE PICKLER THE WOMAN I AM 8,433

15 24 BLAKE SHELTON BASED ON A TRUE STORY 7,342

43 35 CASSADEE POPE FRAME BY FRAME 4,080
30 36 SCOTTY MCCREERY SEE YOU TONIGHT 4,013

45 44 AVICII TRUE 2,767

32 50 PAUL MCCARTNEY NEW 2,100

Hits Daily Double

About Kirsten 3024 Articles
Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.