HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Oct 24-30

With 54.98% “NOW IN”, Coldplay leads the chart, but not by as much as it is predicted to do so in the final report. Industry pundits are predicting that “Mylo Xyloto” will move 440-470K this week demonstrating how difficult it is to derive final numbers from partial numbers on HDD. Their previous album, “Viva la Vida or Death and All His Friends”, sold 720K in its first week (316K on its first day). A lot of those sales were digital. The album held the record for the biggest iTunes album debut with 282K sold which was broken this year by Kayne and Jay-Z (290K) when they released their album exclusively through iTunes for the first 3 days. Lady Gaga holds the record for the biggest digital debut (which will happen when you sell the album for less than the cost of a track download) with 662K in sales mostly through Amazon.

Adele has no plans on leaving any time soon, so she is currently in 2nd (but unlikely to stay there). Meanwhile, Michael Buble kicks off his effort to have the number one Holiday album this week and is currently in third. Christmas already? I still have pumpkins all over my front steps! Maybe I should just spray paint them red and green? The “Monster Mash” is still in the top 20 songs on iTunes! Anyway, Bieber drops his album this week and the race of the Christmas albums will be on like Donkey Kong.

Finally, we get to our first Idol. Kelly Clarkson’s 54.98% numbers are not looking all that promising with a mere 64,606 in sales. But HDD percentages are all but meaningless for calculation purposes and Kelly is predicted to finish the week in second with 160-170K in sales. Here previous album opened with 255K back in March of 2009. This will be Kelly’s 5th studio album to debut in the top 3 on the BB200 (Thankful-1, Breakaway-3, My December-2, All I Ever Wanted-1), but it will be her first to debut under 200K. Not many pop acts can boast that many top 3 finishes. As if that wasn’t enough, her duet with Jason Aldean continues to fuel sales such that his “My Kinda Party” is celebrating it’s 52nd week on the BB200 and is currently in 10th.

Other Idols on the chart are Scotty McCreery who is currently 6th (and predicted to stay there) finishing off it’s first month on the chart still in the top 10. Just outside the top 10 is Lauren Alaina’s “Wildflower” at 11th.

Other albums in the top 10 are Toby Keith (who will snatch the number 1 Country album title away from Scotty this week) at 5th (4th highest debut of the week), Lady Antebellum at 7th, Now 39 (seriously? That series is a machine) at 8th and Lil Wayne at 9th.

The Voice judges are also continuing to reap the rewards of appearing on the show (and putting out albums people want to buy). Blake Shelton’s “Red River Blue” is at 30th, Adam Levine’s Maroon 5’s “Hands All Over” is at 35th and Footloose (on which Blake sings the title track) is at 39th.

CHART DATE: 10/31/2011
LAST UPDATE: 10/31/2011 10:42:55
NOW IN: 54.98%

LW TW artist / album label power index
— 1 COLDPLAY MYLO XYLOTO 97,356
2 2 ADELE 21 94,281
— 3 MICHAEL BUBLE CHRISTMAS 70,570
— 4 KELLY CLARKSON STRONGER 64,606
— 5 TOBY KEITH CLANCY’S TAVERN 35,472
3 6 SCOTTY MCCREERY CLEAR AS DAY 32,847
7 7 LADY ANTEBELLUM OWN THE NIGHT 19,518
17 8 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 39 VARIOUS ARTISTS 14,766
6 9 LIL WAYNE THA CARTER IV 14,033
16 10 JASON ALDEAN MY KINDA PARTY 12,356
10 11 LAUREN ALAINA WILDFLOWER 11,792

40 30 BLAKE SHELTON RED RIVER BLUE 5,869

27 35 MAROON 5 HANDS ALL OVER 5,129

14 39 FOOTLOOSE SOUNDTRACK 4,226

11 50 JANE’S ADDICTION GREAT ESCAPE ARTIST 1,843

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Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.