HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Nov 14-20

With 38.13% reporting in, Drake is off to a comfortable first place start. With HDD and Billboard both predicting that the his totals will be in the 700K range, he will keep that position. Some of you may remember Drake from when he was playing Jimmy on the television show “Degrassi: The New Generation”. This will be Drake’s second number one album. His previous album, “Thank Me Later” was released June 15th last year and opened with 447K

Drake is leading the charge of Canadian artist in the top 10. Michael Buble’s Christmas album (which seems to be on target to be the Christmas album of the season) is currently at 3rd while Justin Beiber’s Christmas album is currently in 6th. If you consider that NOW 40 (currently in second) has a track from Nickelback and the Glee Cast’s latest Christmas album (currently debuting in 4th) features Cory Monteith, Canadians are all over the top 6.

The only purely non-Canadian album in the top 6 is from Adele. She’s fighting valiantly to stay in the top 5 for yet another week (she hasn’t left since the album was released in February). She’s also leading her own charge of invaders. This time, invaders from the UK (and they said the Commonwealth was dead!). That aforementioned NOW album features tracks from VV Brown, The Script and Neon Hills all from the UK while Glee has added Damian McGinty who is from Northern Ireland (part of the UK!). Florence and the Machine and SuBo fill out the the 7th and 8th slots and also hail from the UK.

So, where does that leave the poor Americans in their own top 10? Well, the only solo ones to show up are contestants on them there reality shows. Scotty McCreery is currently in 9th providing evidence that his album has some legs since not many albums are flirting with the top 10 in their 7th week of release in the middle of November. Currently, he has the number 1 Country album, but Lady A are predicted to be in the running for that title when the final charts arrive. Next up is Jackie Evancho from America’s got talent. “Heavenly Christmas is her 3rd album released in less than a year and it’s being offered exclusively through Walmart (which tells us that at least one of the two groups from Walmart have reported in as part of that 38.13%). Of course, there are a number of Americans on the NOW 40 and Glee albums as well. Including Kelly Clarkson and Maroon 5 (featuring Voice judges Adam and Christina) on NOW 40.

Kelly Clarkson also appears on her own solo album “Stronger” at 21st. Now Christmas 4 is at 24 and features a track from AI Season 4 winner Carrie Underwood (“What Child Is This”). That album also has a track from Voice judge Christina (“Have Yourself A Merry Little Christmas”), Voice judge Adam (Maroon 5’s version of “Happy Christmas (War Is Over)” – can it be the same without Yoko “singing”?), and UK X-Factor Judge Kelly Rowland (“Wonderful Christmastime” – the Christmas song I hate above all others, even the song about shoes. Seriously, Paul, what were you thinking?). There are also some Canadians lurking on that album (Buble again and Diana Krall). BGT’s Susan Boyle makes her second appearance on the chart with her second album “The Gift” (everybody is busy buying those Christmas albums so don’t just blame radio for getting an early start) in 26th. Voice Judge Blake Shelton is 38th and American Idol Lauren Alaina completes our list with her “Wildflower” at 42nd.

Since the albums got an early start this week, we should be seeing HDD One-Day predictions today. Those predictions may include totals for American Idols Daughtry and James Durbin and Voice winner Javier Colon (and a bunch of Canadians).

CHART DATE: 11/21/2011
LAST UPDATE: 11/21/2011 13:05:05
NOW IN: 38.13%

LW TW artist / album label power index
— 1 DRAKE TAKE CARE 184,456
3 2 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 40 VARIOUS ARTISTS 43,338
2 3 MICHAEL BUBLE CHRISTMAS 42,523
— 4 GLEE CAST GLEE CHRISTMAS, VOL. 2 38,850
5 5 ADELE 21 33,690
6 6 JUSTIN BIEBER UNDER THE MISTLETOE 33,385
12 7 FLORENCE + THE MACHINE CEREMONIALS 18,271
9 8 SUSAN BOYLE SOMEONE TO WATCH OVER ME 16,213
14 9 SCOTTY MCCREERY MERC CLEAR AS DAY 16,075
16 10 JACKIE EVANCHO HEAVENLY CHRISTMAS 15,988

18 21 KELLY CLARKSON STRONGER 8,749

— 24 NOW CHRISTMAS 4 VARIOUS ARTISTS 8,094

32 26 SUSAN BOYLE SYCO/COLUMBIA 7,358
THE GIFT

47 38 BLAKE SHELTON WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 5,392
RED RIVER BLUE

46 42 LAUREN ALAINA WILDFLOWER 4,675

49 50 ZAC BROWN BAND YOU GET WHAT YOU GIVE 3,550

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Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.