HDD – Album Sales Prediction : July 11-17

With 54.02% of the market reporting, the HDD top 50 contains 2 solo Idols and 3 albums featuring Idols. Scotty McCreery is currently in 22nd with his Walmart exclusive five song EP of Idol songs while David Cook is at 36 with his sophomore album. Jason Aldean just won’t leave the top 10 and Kelly Clarkson is helping him stay to party. His album is currently at 4th. Likewise, Carrie is helping Brad Paisley fuel sales and keeping his album at 13th. She’s also helping to move those units with her popular track “Undo It” on Now Country 4 which is at 18.

Lots of debuts this week. Leading the pack is Voice judge, Blake Shelton. His very popular lead-off single, “Honey Bee” and successful turn as reality show judge have combined to make this the biggest debut he’s ever had and he’s at number 1. Chris Young, 2006 winner of USA Network’s Nashville Star (S4), debuts at number 4 with his third album, “Neon”. American Idol reject Colbie Callet debuts at 7 also with her third album. Incubus and Theory of a Deadman have no association with reality programs that I know of and they are debuting at 6th and 10th.

Now, for the old guard: Adele continues to dominate and is currently in 2nd. Beyonce is third, but I kind of wish she was 4th because then I could have some fun with her album being titled “4” (and I know it’s going to be a long while before Adele is at 21st). Selena slips to 8th. Justin Moore just hit number 1 on the Country airplay chart and that’s helping his album stay in the top 10 at 9th. AGT’s Jackie Evancho is currently at 12th.

Gaga Watch: Back out of the top 10 and tumbling. At this rate, she’s going to be totally front-loaded with her first week sales accounting for more than 50% of her sales. People may say “So What? She went platinum in one week. Most artists would kill for that”. The problem is that with this album stumbling on the first hurdle, it’s not going to have the same momentum to help push her next album. Gaga and the execs will still want to do something to try to get this train back on track. But what?

Final:
— 1 BLAKE SHELTON RED RIVER BLUE 116, 956 —
— 2 INCUBUS IF NOT NOW, WHEN? 80, 440 —
2 3 ADELE 21 76, 538 -3%
— 4 CHRIS YOUNG NEON 72, 278 —
1 5 BEYONCE 4 69, 639 -38%
— 6 COLBIE CAILLAT ALL OF YOU 66, 886 —
4 7 JASON ALDEAN MY KINDA PARTY 41, 711 -1%
— 8 THEORY OF A DEADMAN TRUTH IS… 37, 094 —
— 9 SUBLIME WITH ROME YOURS TRULY 31, 920 —
3 10 SELENA GOMEZ & THE SCENE WHEN THE SUN GOES DOWN 31, 526 -26%

6 12 JACKIE EVANCHO DREAM WITH ME 24, 601 -30%

14 16 BRAD PAISLEY THIS IS COUNTRY MUSIC 18, 432 -6%
22 17 SCOTTY MCCREERY AMERICAN IDOL: SEASON 10 17, 794 +29%
27 31 NOW COUNTRY 4 VARIOUS ARTISTS 12, 144 0%

44 50 LMFAO SORRY FOR PARTY ROCKING 8, 135 -9%

CHART DATE: 07/18/2011
LAST UPDATE: 07/18/2011 11:29:58
NOW IN: 54.02%

LW TW artist / album label power index
— 1 BLAKE SHELTON RED RIVER BLUE 69, 562
2 2 ADELE 21 65, 499
1 3 BEYONCE 4 54, 281
— 4 CHRIS YOUNG NEON 47, 126
4 5 JASON ALDEAN MY KINDA PARTY 29, 101
— 6 INCUBUS IF NOT NOW, WHEN? 27, 331
— 7 COLBIE CAILLAT ALL OF YOU 25, 250
3 8 SELENA GOMEZ & THE SCENE WHEN THE SUN GOES DOWN 19, 823
12 9 JUSTIN MOORE OUTLAWS LIKE ME 15, 299
— 10 THEORY OF A DEADMAN TRUTH IS… 15, 207

6 12 JACKIE EVANCHO DREAM WITH ME 14, 103
14 13 BRAD PAISLEY THIS IS COUNTRY MUSIC 12, 484
8 14 LADY GAGA BORN THIS WAY 11, 606
— 15 SUBLIME WITH ROME YOURS TRULY 11, 096

27 18 NOW COUNTRY 4 VARIOUS ARTISTS 9, 890
— 19 SHAKE IT UP: BREAK IT DOWN SOUNDTRACK 9, 816

22 22 SCOTTY MCCREERY AMERICAN IDOL: SEASON 10 7, 658

— 25 ASHTON SHEPHERD WHERE COUNTRY GROWS 7, 030

— 30 BRIAN MCKNIGHT JUST ME 6, 154

23 36 DAVID COOK THIS LOUD MORNING 4, 699

32 50 EMINEM SHADY/AFTERMATH/INT 3, 360
RECOVERY

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Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.