X-Factor 2/The Voice 3- SirMac’s final Power Lists

I literally couldn’t think of anything shorter to write about than doing a column entirely on The Voice’s power rankings. It’s so obvious who is going to win, it’s not even fun to write about. At least with The X-Factor, Carly and Tate have both hit #1, and since no rankings were revealed this week, there’s at least a sense of mystery about who will take home the prize. But, let’s get The Voice out of the way, shall we?

3) Terry McDermott- He’s a very nice guy. He seems like he’s a really great dad, and he should be very proud that he made it this far. That being said, there’s a greater chance of the Mayan Apocalypse happening than there is of Terry winning The Voice. He basically stole the finale spot from Amanda, who at least would have given Cassadee a run for her money. Chance of Winning: 1%

2) Nicholas David- There’s a slightly greater chance for Nicholas to “upset” this competition and take home the prize. America could very well embrace the insanity and choose Nicholas over Cassadee because of the quirk factor. However, if this finale was Amanda involved, Nicholas wouldn’t even register on the radar. Chance of Winning: 14%

1) Cassadee Pope- The Voice is looking at finally churning out a winner who is commercially viable and is actually topping the Itunes chart. I’m not sure if Jermaine Paul’s album will ever actually come out. At this point, he’ll be lucky to move 10K in his first week, and chart in the top 200, let alone the top 20. Cassadee has been proving herself constantly with the Itunes chart, and shoved down our throats by the producers and Blake. This really is the easiest finale since Jordin vs Blake. Chance of Winning: 85%

And now on to the X-Factor:

3) Fifth Harmony- It’s cute that they made the finals. It’ll give Simon an excuse to sign them along with Emblem3, and the two groups can tour together and stuff. It’s also very true that Fifth Harmony is peaking at the right time. However, I would say Emblem3 was an easy target to eliminate as they were 3rd previously, and didn’t really have a stellar week last week. Did anyone REALLY love their cover of Hey Jude? Still, there’s a chance that they are the ultimate dark horse, but I think it’s a relatively small one considering this whole competition has been dominated by Tate and Carly. Chance of Winning: 10%

2) Carly Rose Sonenclair- Yup. I’m predicting a Tate Stevens win. Here’s why: Carly has proven she’s a great vocalist, but she hasn’t proven herself as a viable artist. What kind of record would she make? What other artists is she like? What would her voice do on an uptempo song? Is she R&B or is she Pop? Carly hasn’t had to answer any of those questions because the judges have lapped praise upon her simply for staying on pitch in every song. However, those weeks at #1 can’t be ignored. She can still win this thing, I’m just betting she won’t. Chance of Winning: 30%

1) Tate Stevens- He’s endearing when he stands on stage and cries over missing his wife. He’s played as being literally the nicest guy on the face of the planet. He used to lay concrete for a living, and he’s trying to support his family by winning this competition. On top of that, yes, he is a White Guy With Guitar, and yes he does have a few extra votes coming from VFTW. But really, it’s the fact that he’s proven exactly what kind of album he’ll make, and the fact that he’s 100% ready to go and doesn’t need any further coaching to get there. In six months time, he’ll top the country charts. Believe that. Carly put up a strong fight, but she doesn’t have a wife and kids to mention every chance she gets. Tate has been given an exceptional storyline and edit by the producers, and it will absolutely carry him across the finish line. Chance of Winning: 60%

What do you think? Why not sound off in the comments below?

  • http://twitter.com/50watts Ronald Watts

    Is it possible if you could put these six together and rank them. I think that would be an interesting article. tks

  • http://twitter.com/bluinjewin Landon Cox

    Tate burning up the country charts in 6 months? No

  • Reflects On Life

    The whole X-Factor-as-welfare-program just rubs me the wrong way.  I need to award Tate $5M because he can’t go back to his job laying concrete?  Really? Why, because laying concrete is such a specialized job, and his employer is the only one with openings in that field?  Because he loves his wife & kids and is faithful to them?  Aren’t all men supposed to do that?  If the prize were $50k or $100k, I’d be tempted to say “Tate needs it more”.  But no one “needs” $5M to support their families or as a reward for not cheating on their wife.  But a person might need $5mill to launch a career as a recording artist.

    I don’t know what’s special about Tate, he services a song well, but he adds nothing to it.  He’s like a cruise-ship singer for country cruises.  Carly OTOH is on her way to becoming a professional singer in some capacity, and $5mill put toward that career trajectory would be money well spent (even if it meant holding off on an album for a while).

    If 5H were to win, they should market them to the tweens. Don’t make them grow up too fast.  Then, in several years, if they can reimage themselves as adults, then worry about the mainstream audience.

  • Kirsten

    1) Cassadee Pope- The Voice is looking at finally churning out a winner who is commercially viable and is actually topping the Itunes chart.

    I’m starting to get a little skeptical of Cassadee’s iTunes numbers meaning much of anything other than her fans know how to stuff a ballot box. While rabid fans can generate some first week heat, how long can they sustain it before they go broke?

    I’ve always been skeptical of the impact of bulk buying campaigns, but nobody has ever institutionalized it like The Voice (restricting other voting methods and giving a 10x bonus for hitting the top 10 – they even got iTunes to remove their safeguards to allow bulk buying of singles).  And Cassadee’s fans are the first to make that really work for them.

    I find it interesting that Cassadee had two songs in the top 7 of iTunes last week by the time the voting window ended, but by the time the numbers were tallied for the week (and probably some of the “buying anomalies” were chucked), she ended up 37th and 44th on the weekly chart. Nicholas was able to slide past her and finish 30th (despite being behind one of her songs).

    While I have no doubt that you are right and her fans will get her the win, I’m not so sure that she will be a break out star (although, TPTB seem to have realized that others are noticing their lack of success at generating stars, so they might actually lift a finger to help her this time. She’s certainly got the total package that shows without blind auditions are looking for).

    Terry is going nowhere in the biz (sorry, he’s just so dated). Nicholas doesn’t seem like he should work, but we’ve had some quirky artists do well in the last year, so who knows if we are starting to see a change. I think he would be a long shot. Cassadee is in a crowded niche, but she probably is their most conventional best shot at a commercial viability.

    And I think you are right about her winning.

  • http://twitter.com/eilonwya10 Eilonwy

     I need to award Tate $5M because he can’t go back to his job laying concrete?  Really? Why, because laying concrete is such a specialized job, and his employer is the only one with openings in that field?

    Well, since the prize was changed to a $5 million recording contract this season, rather than a payout on top of the recording contract, the point becomes moot.

    As far as Tate Stevens topping the country charts, I’m baffled by the prevailing logic that he’s destined for greatness simply because he’s a country singer from a reality show. The only Nashville Star winner to get near the top of the country charts with a single from the debut album was Buddy Jewell (#3, S1 winner). Chris Young broke big on his second album, and of course third-place winner Miranda Lambert did extremely well. But that leaves a lot of top-4 Nashville Star alumni who fizzled.

    It’s not like country winners from Idol swoop to the top of the chart with inevitability, as McCreery’s best-performing single peaked below #10. And Idol has a far better track record of getting radio play for its alumni than does XFUSA (even Lee DeWyze tops Melanie Amaro’s performance for radio), plus McCreery brought something unusual to the genre (the deep-voiced country teen).

    It’s certainly possible that, with fantastic A&R and a strong promo plan, Tate Stevens could do well. But he really will need fantastic A&R, and that’s exactly what XFUSA’s label partners haven’t delivered to the show’s alumni so far. A middle-of-the-road pop-country song about how he’s truckin’ on down the road to his dreams won’t do it.

  • Oldhag

    Tate should be able to find some success in country music, but top the charts in 6 months? Probably not. Carrie and Scotty both made the country fans I knew stop in their tracks and say wow, the week each competed it just seemed like they were destined to win, and not because of show manipulations, but because their was just something special about them. Matter of fact with Scotty, it seemed that Lauren is who they wanted to win. I think Emblem 3 is who Simon wanted this time. I see Tate more along the lines of Josh Gracin or Bucky Covington, because while he is good, he doesn’t have that something special about him – you know, that elusive X factor.

  • http://twitter.com/happylittlefish Amy Beth

    I was skeptical of Cassadee too, but her iTunes rankings have shown staying power. “Over You” was in the Top 100 for 2 weeks or so.

    If it was just ballot stuffing, she’d fall off the charts almost immediately.

  • Kirsten

    I was skeptical of Cassadee too, but her iTunes rankings have shown
    staying power. “Over You” was in the Top 100 for 2 weeks or so.

    I’m not saying that she can’t have a hit with the right song and marketing.

    I’m just saying that her fan base is punching well above its weight and I don’t anticipate that she’ll be ringing the top of the iTunes chart with every release once the voting has stopped.

    Dia and Jaiver were 1/2 on the chart (and held it longer) back in season 1 (when you didn’t even get a 10x bonus) and that couldn’t be replicated when they released their singles/albums later that year.

    Hitting number one on the iTunes chart as a Voice contestant does not mean commercially viable. It doesn’t mean you can’t be either. We just don’t know what is an early indicator of a successful Voice contestant.

    If it was just ballot stuffing, she’d fall off the charts almost immediately.

    Which is pretty much what her other songs do.

    Javier’s audition song and Dia’s “Heartless” spent a long time in the iTunes top 100 as well. Voice contestants can resonate with a good rendition of an excellent song. Its a little harder to get others to give you new excellent songs for your album without a proven track record (or the ability to write them yourself).

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/XDQP2Y46M5B3OHOKALDDGDHQCM Leandro

    “choose Nicholas over Cassadee because of the quirk factor.”

    No, Sir, the SINGING factor, he’s the best singer of this competition by far. Quirk factor would be America voting for someone like Cassadee. 

  • notthatmary

    Not really buying into the “Terry and Nicholas” are boring, dated” story.  Their original music is current.  The both have albums.  Terry has performed with acts such as Taylor Hawkins of the Foo Fighters, Candlebox, Whitestarr, Nikka Costa, Matisyahu, The Bravery, Hot Hot Heat, The Charlatans UK and English band The Thieves.  His Voice covers have made #1 in the Rock charts multiple times.

    Yes, I believe Cassadee will win (although by voting max times for both Terry and Nicholas it might be possible to push one of them above her) but I expect the guys to have decent music careers.  Michael Johns/Anoop level, maybe, rather than Daughtry/Cook.  But certainly don’t except them to fall off the radar like most of the Voice’s previous contestants.

  • http://twitter.com/eilonwya10 Eilonwy

    I expect the guys to have decent music careers.  Michael Johns/Anoop level, maybe, rather than Daughtry/Cook.  But certainly don’t except them to fall off the radar like most of the Voice’s previous contestants.

    Umm…. uhhhh… Michael Johns’ 2009 album with Downtown Records sold 20,000 copies and had a single peak at #22 on AC. His other (self-released?) album from 2009 has no sales figures or BB 200 rank. He hasn’t released anything in the subsequent three years.

    The only Anoop Desai release for which numbers are available is his 2010 EP, which sold 900 copies. Not 9,000 — 900. His other releases also have no numbers at all, nor a BB 200 rank. There is no sign he’s ever had any radio play. His latest single is supposed to be club music, but there’s no sign of it charting on the Hot Dance Club chart.

    These are indeed pretty much the sorts of careers that Voice contestants typically seem to have.

  • Stavros

    1. Carly needs the $5 million the most. She can be a rising Celine Dion-type voice of her generation. She’s really special, and I think we’ve all gotten so used to her schtick that we’ve become immune to it.  I also think she deserves it more than Tate and 5H.

    2. I wouldn’t count out Carly so quick. A lot of it comes down to placement. If Tate sings first and performs his not-so-memorable audition song and Carly comes our roaring with Feeling Good to close the night, she can steal it away from Tate.

  • Stavros

    1. Carly needs the $5 million the most. She can be a rising Celine Dion-type voice of her generation. She’s really special, and I think we’ve all gotten so used to her schtick that we’ve become immune to it.  I also think she deserves it more than Tate and 5H.

    2. I wouldn’t count out Carly so quick. A lot of it comes down to placement. If Tate sings first and performs his not-so-memorable audition song and Carly comes our roaring with Feeling Good to close the night, she can steal it away from Tate.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/BZKLOGIQRNCXPPCUTFTWBTWIOM kevin

    Carly’s demographic skews older. no one who is actually her generation is looking for the next celine dion voice. she doesnt need it.

  • notthatmary

    Yes, but – - – Michael and Anoop are “doing” music full time, not selling a ton of records but playing in clubs, performing at conferences, etc.  They both took part in the Cabo Idols event (has to be kinda nice to get a paid vacation in Mexico).  Michael has worked with David Foster, he and Brooke did a little tour together, etc.  

    I can imagine Nick being happy playing clubs and events close to home, producing his own music and selling enough cds to keep the babies in diapers.

    I think they’ve done well enough to avoid ever having to work a “day job” and that may be enough to make them happy.

  • http://twitter.com/BazzleFjsm Bazzle

    Tbh I think FH would benefit the most from the contract. Simon really needs to market them like US Little Mix… that would be awesome. Little Mix has an R&B but modern pop to their sound and I am loving it. I actually think that 5H would do better in the US with that sort of sound. Carly is too young for a full time recording career atm. I reckon she should explore more options first e.g. acting or doing something like Glee. If they are gonna market her its gonna be Bruno Mars/Adele sorta thing and I don’t know if many people would buy into that considering how young she is. She definitely has the voice for that route though. 

    Tate really should not be signed by Syco or Epic and probably won’t be. He needs to go to Nashville and win or not win I reckon he’ll get the record deal that is better for him and he’d do very well the country industry are very welcoming. 

  • Klaine

    Carly should do an up tempo song and one appropriate for a 13 year old… A kids like this should be 16-18 and go on idol

  • Karen C

    I think Tate is the most likely to have a viable career after the show ends, because country is the most accepting in the US for reality show stars, and I do think he’s good, but I don’t think he’ll top the country charts, unless he gets a really strong single.

  • http://twitter.com/rodney_reyes131 Rodney Reyes

    Cassadee Pope will win The Voice U.S Season 3!!! :D

    Carly Rose Sonenclar will win The X Factor USA Season 2!!! :D