HDD – Album Sales Prediction : June 17-23

With just over half (50.65%) of reports in, the top of the chart is dominated by Urban artists debuting new CDs. Leading the charge and should be coasting to an easy victory, is North West’s Dad, Kayne. His baby naming skills may not be a hit, but his album is. This will be the 6th number one album for the mic-grabbing rapper, but it features a considerable sales drop from his last album which sold only a little bit South of 500K (496K). This new album is predicted to sell anywhere from 330K-385K (BB predicts 330K-340K, HITS 360K-385K). Granted that last album was released during Black Friday week and actually had a lead-off single, so the sales drop is not unexpected.

Right behind Kanye is J. Cole. “Born Sinner” is the Hip-Hop artists second album and it is predicted to see an uptick in sales from his first album. While his previous album opened at number 1 with 217K sold, this one is predicted to 270K-290K (and possibly even 300K). If these predictions hold up, Kanye and J will have the second and third biggest openings of the year.

Pittsburgh Rapper Mac Miller is predicted to debut in third this week in about the 100K range. That’s a drop-off from 144K with his last album. If Mac can hit the 100K mark, that will be the first time since Thanksgiving that three acts have moved over 100K in the same week.

Rounding out the Urban juggernaut is X-Factor judge, Kelly Rowland. This R&B artist first got her start as part of Destiny’s Child and is predicted to debut with 60K.

Hunter Hayes album re-release is set to debut selling around 35K. BB predicts he’ll end the week in 5th, but HDD has him further back around 9th. He is currently in 5th with almost 30K in sales, so it will be interesting to see who wins this prediction battle. A lot of people have followed Hunter around here because he really started getting traction around the time Scotty won and people wondered if there was room for two teen country males (traditionally, there hasn’t been much room for even one). Hunter has pushed through to success on Country and with some additional cross-over success. Also, Lauren invited him to her prom. He declined.

Florida Georgia Line is 6th, Daft Punk is 7th and Justin Timberlake is 8th. Black Sabbath slides from 1st last week to 9th currently and Imagine Dragons round out the top 10.

Danielle Bradbery may have some fans that won’t vote via iTunes but will buy her album via iTunes (either that or they can’t have enough copies of her music – did they hold back any music for the album like Idol did the last two years for the Walmart albums (which I notice are suspiciously absent this year…hmmmm….)). 12K is pretty impressive when fans are encouraged to buy every week. She is currently at 18th.

Fantasia rebounds into the top 50 at 50th this week. Last week, there were a lot of Country artist that bubbled up into the top 50 due to a Country music awards show.

Finally, One D and Olly Murs are on the NOW 46th album at 20th.

CHART DATE: 06/24/2013
LAST UPDATE: 06/24/2013 13:11:59
NOW IN: 50.65%

LW TW artist / album label power index
— 1 KANYE WEST YEEZUS 221,535
— 2 J. COLE BORN SINNER 203,907
— 3 MAC MILLER WATCHING MOVIES WITH THE SOUND 57,841
— 4 KELLY ROWLAND TALK A GOOD GAME 36,949
— 5 HUNTER HAYES HUNTER HAYES 29,120
5 6 FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE HERE’S TO THE GOOD TIMES 26,120
2 7 DAFT PUNK RANDOM ACCESS MEMORIES 23,797
3 8 JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE 20/20 EXPERIENCE 22,946
1 9 BLACK SABBATH 13 21,340
10 10 IMAGINE DRAGONS NIGHT VISIONS17,260
8 11 BLAKE SHELTON BASED ON A TRUE STORY 16,904

— 18 DANIELLE BRADBERY THE COMPLETE SEASON 4 COLLECTION 11,759

20 20 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC V46 VARIOUS ARTISTSL 9,878

40 29 DEMI LOVATO DEMI 5,410

37 45 MAROON 5 OVEREXPOSED 4,198

— 50 FANTASIA SIDE EFFECTS OF YOU 3,332

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Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.