HDD – Album Sales Prediction – Nov 29-Dec 5

Last year, two chanteuses were caught in an epic battle to see who would have the top selling album of the year. Taylor’s 2008 Fearless album faced off against Boyle’s 2009 “I Dreamed a Dream”. The industry was all aflutter about how SuBo managed to rack up 3.104M in sales in just 6 weeks to nearly catch Taylor’s 3.217M in sales. Given the length of time typically between CDs, it’s kind of unusual to see the two battling it out on the charts again just one year later, but here we are with SuBo and Taylor sitting at one-two. Now, neither are likely to have the best selling album of 2010. Eminem looks to have that sewed-up with 3, 052, 878 in sales already this year and Lady Antebellum isn’t far behind at 2, 850, 941.

Coincidentally, both Taylor and SuBo are sitting behind Justin Bieber on the year-to-date charts. Taylor’s “Speak Now” is set to pass the Bieb’s “My World II” which is currently at 3rd (the albums have sold 1, 965, 107 and 2, 052, 317 respectively so far this year). Meanwhile, SuBo’s “The Gift” is currently in 13th having sold 878, 423 right behind Bieb’s “My World” which has sold 895, 355. She will likely move into the top 10 this week (pushing Ke$ha down and out). But, shed no tears for The Fetus. He’s doing alright. He’s sold a whopping 3, 063, 139 albums in the US alone this year and his acoustic EP is currently sitting at 8th on the HDD chart. It’s looking to have a smaller than usual first to second week drop, especially when you consider it’s coming off of Black Friday.

Little Jackie keeps on moving those units to hold onto 3rd and Kanye West sales look to be pretty front loaded (that’s typical of many Rap acts who have awesome first weeks with sharp drop-off in sales. Eminem excepted). Glee rounds out the top 5 with their Christmas album.

Glee actually has two albums in the top 50. Their new soundtrack album is right behind their Christmas album at number 6. There are three artists with two albums on the chart this week (Glee, Bieber and Lady Antebellum) and one with three (Taylor Swift).

Shocking news? The Black Eyed Peas album is flopping out of the gate. After their massive success with their last album (especially single sales), it just goes to show that nothing guarantees long-term success. They are currently at 7th with a Friday prediction of 105-115k in sales. I mean, it’s over a 100K in sales which is always nice, but that looks pretty dismal next to their previous successes.

If this post seems a little thin on Idol news it’s because Idols are thinly represented on the chart. A grand total of 4 songs featuring Idols appear in the top 50 this week. That’s less than 1% of the songs on those albums. Remember when Idols used to own the charts? When they looked like they were taking over the industry? No worries about that this year. Only Carrie appears on the YTD top 50 album chart with 645, 359 in sales for 23rd.

Now 36 is at 13th and features a song by each of Daughtry and Adam Lambert. Sitting at 17th is Jason Aldean’s leggy Country album which features a generally considered kick-a$$ duet with Kelly Clarkson. Now Christmas 4 is at 20 and features a Christmas song by Carrie Underwood.

This is the daily’s number thread. The gift that allows you to speak now, day and (O Holy) night.

CHART DATE: 12/06/2010
LAST UPDATE: 12/06/2010 14:37:15
NOW IN: 54.02%

LW TW artist / album label power index
4 1 SUSAN BOYLE THE GIFT 214, 594
3 2 TAYLOR SWIFT SPEAK NOW 131, 299
5 3 JACKIE EVANCHO O HOLY NIGHT 87, 136
1 4 KANYE WEST MY BEAUTIFUL DARK TWISTED.. 79, 652
10 5 GLEE CAST CHRISTMAS ALBUM 70, 596
— 6 GLEE CAST GLEE: THE MUSIC, VOL. 4 67, 099
— 7 BLACK EYED PEAS BEGINNING 63, 998
7 8 JUSTIN BIEBER MY WORLDS ACOUSTIC 61, 031
2 9 NICKI MINAJ PINK FRIDAY 55, 647
13 10 KEITH URBAN GET CLOSER 44, 597

17 13 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 36 VARIOUS ARTISTS38, 928

21 17 JASON ALDEAN MY KINDA PARTY 34, 369

— 20 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL XMAS V.4 VARIOUS ARTISTS 29, 920

Hits Daily Double

YTD numbers courtesy of 2m on Pulse.

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Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.