Monday Morning Mediabase Update – 12/08/08

Hooray for lights and rainbows….

Magic Rainbow is fighting to resist the Xmas onslaught as best it can. Its resiliency amuses me.

LO has outpeaked Magic Rainbow on pop. Fingers crossed that it manages to stay that high or get higher by the next published chart….

Jennifer Hudson:
à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“If This Isnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t Loveà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ : ^32 UAC (34), ^46 Urban (50)

Meanwhile, this one has grown on me. I’m glad to see that it’s movin’ on up.

HDD sales numbers…

CHART DATE: 12/08/2008
LAST UPDATE: 12/08/2008 11:18:32
NOW IN: 36.20%

LW TW artist / album label power index
– 1 BRITNEY SPEARS JIVE/ZLG 119,901
CIRCUS
2 2 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 95,213
FEARLESS
7 3 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 65,204
DARK HORSE
12 4 AC/DC COLUMBIA 52,555
BLACK ICE
9 5 NOW 29 UME 45,268
VARIOUS ARTISTS
3 6 GUNS N’ ROSES GEFFEN 44,740
CHINESE DEMOCRACY
10 7 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 43,077
DAVID COOK
4 8 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 41,859
I AM… SASHA FIERCE
1 9 KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 40,898
808S & HEARTBREAK
8 10 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 40,828
SOUNDTRACK
– 11 AKON SRC/UNIVERSAL MOTOWN 37,016
FREEDOM
18 12 DAVID ARCHULETA 19/JIVE/ZLG 28,247
DAVID ARCHULETA

OMG – ^^ that’s fantastic.

Both Davids moved up in the top 20 rankings. DC is 7th this week with 36% reporting so far. Yay!

duplicate

CHART DATE: 12/08/2008
LAST UPDATE: 12/08/2008 11:44:10
NOW IN: 54.02%

LW TW artist / album label power index
– 1 BRITNEY SPEARS JIVE/ZLG 243,791
CIRCUS
2 2 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 126,392
FEARLESS
7 3 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 78,581
DARK HORSE
1 4 KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 72,485
808S & HEARTBREAK
9 5 NOW 29 UME 70,500
VARIOUS ARTISTS
– 6 AKON SRC/UNIVERSAL MOTOWN 62,441
FREEDOM
4 7 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 61,959
I AM… SASHA FIERCE
8 8 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 58,579
SOUNDTRACK
10 9 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 57,704
DAVID COOK
12 10 AC/DC COLUMBIA 52,555
BLACK ICE
11 11 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL: SENIOR YEAR WALT DISNEY RECORDS 48,631
SOUNDTRACK
3 12 GUNS N’ ROSES GEFFEN 44,740
CHINESE DEMOCRACY
18 13 DAVID ARCHULETA 19/JIVE/ZLG 38,014
DAVID ARCHULETA

Wow, Taylor Swift seriously is a machine. Her year to date numbers are incredible.

Thanks for updated numbers. Yay, for more units moved/sold by the Davids. This is so exciting. It’s like getting rolling election returns.

Both of them staying in the top 20 would be fantastic! SO cool.

Nice numbers

Gosh, I wonder if Cookie can get Gold this week? How much does he need, around 100K? He will probably end up just shy.

He needs 108,000 for gold. I think this update is frontloaded with some retailers he’s selling well in reporting first. If you look at some of the other positions/numbers compared with HDD’s Friday projections some are pretty off. Like with Beyonce and Nickelback I expect at least one big update that will make their positions flip fop.

Yeah, Gold would be A-MAZING, but the predictions don’t really suggest it. He’d essentially have sell nearly as many this week as he did last week.

A girl’s gotta dream though… “When you wish upon a star….”

I have decided merely to be happy that the updates so far seem to indicate that DC looks good to make the HDD estimate from Friday, which would mean that, in a week that is typically a slow one for music sales, DC had only a “regular” drop.

Otherwise, I’m thinking at this point that the first update includes partial Walmart and partial Best Buy, and that the second update includes either partial or total Target or a set of the bookstores.

There had to be Walmart in the first update, but not the second because of AC/DC. There was most likely some Best Buy in the first update (but not the second) because of GnR. I doubt that itunes was in the first update because of the timing of it, and because of the numbers for GnR. I seriously doubt that itunes was in the second update because GnR’s numbers did not go up at all, but DC’s numbers did. GnR was a bit above DC on the itunes album chart throughout the week.

My guess at what is still outstanding: partial Walmart, partial Best Buy, itunes, some urban stores, whatever of Target/bookstore reporters was not in the second update, and then the retailers who do not report to HDD and are estimated (including Amazon). It’s all a guess, but it seems to make sense.

FolkFan, big WORD to everything in your last post. Makes perfect sense to me, and I, too, am going to be very very happy if/when the original HDD prediction comes to pass.

We’ll have Gold after 4 weeks, and that’s amazing.

I doubt that itunes was in the first update because of the timing of it

A way to tell if iTunes is included in the update is to look at Kid Rock. If everyone else’s numbers went up but his, then it probably was an ITunes update since he does not sell there. I didn’t notice what his numbers were at the 33% mark and then the 54% mark.

A way to tell if iTunes is included in the update is to look at Kid Rock. If everyone elseà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s numbers went up but his, then it probably was an ITunes update since he does not sell there.

Sometimes there are updates where only a few artists move. Who knows what that means? HDD’s updates methods can be mysterious. I’m not sure the lack of a Kid Rock update can be sufficient evidence that it is an iTunes update (or iTunes could be bundled with an update from another vendor so Kid Rock’s numbers may go up and hide the fact it was the iTunes update ). Sometimes, HDD will be in the 80% range and will suddenly go to Final with no numbers changing. HDD updates are like the Nazca lines. Lots of theories, but only those that create them know what they truly mean.

Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m not sure the lack of a Kid Rock update can be sufficient evidence that it is an iTunes update (or iTunes could be bundled with an update from another vendor so Kid Rockà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s numbers may go up and hide the fact it was the iTunes update )

OK Kirsten, thanks. Yeah, I didn’t think about iTunes being lumped with others.

Another couple of updates came in the past few minutes. The latest:

CHART DATE: 12/08/2008
LAST UPDATE: 12/08/2008 17:04:01
NOW IN: 69.42%

LW TW artist / album label power index
– 1 BRITNEY SPEARS JIVE/ZLG 349,487
CIRCUS
2 2 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 137,220
FEARLESS
1 3 KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 97,455
808S & HEARTBREAK
8 4 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 87,348
SOUNDTRACK
7 5 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 86,857
DARK HORSE
– 6 AKON SRC/UNIVERSAL MOTOWN 82,982
FREEDOM
9 7 NOW 29 UME 70,500
VARIOUS ARTISTS
4 8 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 69,786
I AM… SASHA FIERCE
10 9 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 62,244
DAVID COOK
12 10 AC/DC COLUMBIA 52,555
BLACK ICE
11 11 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL: SENIOR YEAR WALT DISNEY RECORDS 50,126
SOUNDTRACK
3 12 GUNS N’ ROSES GEFFEN 44,740
CHINESE DEMOCRACY
17 13 FAITH HILL WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 42,419
JOY TO THE WORLD
18 14 DAVID ARCHULETA 19/JIVE/ZLG 38,831
DAVID ARCHULETA
6 15 KILLERS ISLAND/IDJMG 38,384
DAY & AGE

looks like itunes in.

ACDC didn’t move…that means no 2nd WalMart yet, right?

Yup, that would be iTunes, no doubt. DC moved 4,540, DA 817. That seems about right for how they’re placed on iTunes.

I’m so happy for David A!! Considering the wringer that little guy has been put through by the critics and media, and all the dire predictions of only his “crazy Archies” buying his album, I think his consistent sales are showing that his fanbase is growing. Yay!

Actually, it’s a little strange. The increase being itunes seems to make sense overall and in terms of the increase for DC, but GnR did not go up, which it should have with itunes.

Doesn’t seem like a second report from Walmart (no increase for AC/DC) or Best Buy (no increase for GnR).

Considering the wringer that little guy has been put through by the critics and media, and all the dire predictions of only his à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“crazy Archiesà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  buying his album, I think his consistent sales are showing that his fanbase is growing.

That “little guy” is selling a whole lot of singles very consistently, so I’m not sure why anyone would think his album wouldn’t sell. That’s not the impression I’ve been getting from media or fans. I think he was very much expected to succeed, and he is, so good for him.

ACDC didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t moveà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦that means no 2nd WalMart yet, right?

I may be completely off here, but maybe that’s it for Walmart? I mean, if IIRC, ACDC wasn’t even in the top 10 in the original predictions, but it’s managed to sneak up and knock HSM3 off the 10th spot. ACDC’s been out for a bit of a while, now, right? 50 K at this point is still pretty remarkable. Also? Go Davids! Bummer about the Killers. I actually quite like Day and Age.

Walmart pretty much always splits their reports, so it seems unlikely that the first update is all for Walmart.

but GnR did not go up, which it should have with itunes.

What if it’s another glitch, like what happened last week with DCTR? We saw no change in the 54-69% update, but we knew that can’t be right. Maybe this time, we just don’t know.

Eh, it’s a theory, anyway.

Yeah about that last update, I don’t see it being itunes because of GnR. They were consistently placed above DC the whole of last week. So DC’s numbers going up but theirs staying at 44,740 doesn’t make sense if it were an itunes update.

Speaking of itunes, I’m seeing DCTR is already above GnR this week. I’ve actually been tracking DCTR sales in the context of GnR since I see more of a similarity in their situation. They’re in the same genre and also in the sense that GnR is fairly popular but it’s fanbase has been limited in the past couple of years because of their inactivity. Thus, the first week of sales I figure would be more fueled by the fans. Sales after that would have to be by an expanding fanbase (tm DC). Same goes with DC. He started out with the AI watchers then the next week sales would be the ones that new ones.

Also, just to add to the delight at the good sales that DCTR is showing. The fact that he’s going to be in the Top 10 for the 3rd week and with the big players is just great. He’s holding his own against previously platinum selling artists or new debuts or the Twilight OST.

AI must thank their lucky stars that they had the Davids last year. These two guys are giving the franchise a great name.

Jolene said:

That à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“little guyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  is selling a whole lot of singles very consistently, so Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m not sure why anyone would think his album wouldnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t sell. Thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s not the impression Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve been getting from media or fans. I think he was very much expected to succeed, and he is, so good for him.

I don’t presume to speak for Tatiana, but she may be referring to the stage dad rumors from during the Idol season and the fanatic fans reputation of the Archies which has lasted somewhat longer than the season. However, you are right that since the finale, Archie’s graciousness in handling the post-Idol interview tour has created enormous goodwill for him in the media, and the success of “Crush” has created expectations that his album would likely do well.

I was hoping for 65-70k this week. So I am thrilled right now with DC’s current numbers with 70% reporting. That’s awesome for three weeks of sales.

Archie’s single’s and current record’s sale have disproved a lot of early naysayers. I’m happy for him. He’s very talented.

I think both he and DC will continue to surprise a lot of people moving forward. Really, they are both so young in their careers. It’ll be fun watching them grow.

Also, just to add to the delight at the good sales that DCTR is showing. The fact that heà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s going to be in the Top 10 for the 3rd week and with the big players is just great.

Word. He might actually not only stay in the Top 10, but move up. That really shows that the album is definitely holding its own with the general public.

Here’s hoping the trend continues, and he might even exceed the HDD prediction of 80-85K.

Keel
Dec 8th, 2008 at 8:57 pm
Jolene said:

That à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“little guyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  is selling a whole lot of singles very consistently, so Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m not sure why anyone would think his album wouldnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t sell. Thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s not the impression Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve been getting from media or fans. I think he was very much expected to succeed, and he is, so good for him.

I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t presume to speak for Tatiana, but she may be referring to the stage dad rumors from during the Idol season and the fanatic fans reputation of the Archies which has lasted somewhat longer than the season. However, you are right that since the finale, Archieà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s graciousness in handling the post-Idol interview tour has created enormous goodwill for him in the media, and the success of à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Crushà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  has created expectations that his album would likely do well.

I was referring to the stage dad rumors, as well as media naysayers (such as Slezak from EW) who during the competition consistently argued that Archie was “not marketable.” Even MJ expressed this view throughout the season and recently admitted she had been wrong (thank you MJ! ) I’ll still see the random article or album review saying as much. It’s nice to see the numbers tell a different story.

That whole not marketable meme is as tiresome as LO the boat anchor. DATR is showing consistent trend patterns as LO which sails along merrily at a slow but steady clip for the past few weeks now.

Last week with the exact same percentage in, David Cook had 63,000 as well, so perhaps the Streetpulse prediction of no decrease could come true. His itunes position has been a steady No. 20 so I think much higher than 5,000 but we will see.

Yay for that mediabase update for LO! Double yay for those HDD partial reports for DCTR! Imagine that, LO actually managed to help sell DCTR!!! (It’s quite selfless, actually. It was willing to sacrifice selling itself, for sales of the entire pie.)

I was referring to the stage dad rumors, as well as media naysayers (such as Slezak from EW) who during the competition consistently argued that Archie was à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“not marketable.à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ 

Oh, I didn’t realise you were talking about six months ago. I guess that’s just not where my mind’s at. Huh.

Last week with the exact same percentage in, David Cook had 63,000 as well, so perhaps the Streetpulse prediction of no decrease could come true.

Last week can’t be counted on. He had no increase between 54% and 69%, which made no sense, and still doesn’t. Mostly it’s thought to be a glitch with the HDD report for 69%, so that total likely represents what he really had for 54%. It should have been higher otherwise.

Right now I’d say we’re likely to meet HDD predictions, which is better than average for the week following BF. I’m very happy with that.

I have a question for the HDD guru’s. I was reading through various HDD news & came across vibe-raters. DC is #1 on the vibe-braters “this week’s picks to break. Chosen by the HITS editorial staff” for the week of 12/3-12/10. (I know this has probably already been discussed but I must have missed it, sorry).

What exactly is “vibe-raters”, (let’s not go there, LOL)? I am confused why Beyonce, AD/DC or Taylor Swift etc would not be on the top or even in the list?

Last week with the exact same percentage in, David Cook had 63,000 as well, so perhaps the Streetpulse prediction of no decrease could come true.

SP has proven to be really hit and miss. I put more stock in HDD Friday’s projections which could also be off but I find them to be more on the up and up.

My RSS feed is showing LO at #47 on iTunes. When I looked, I think late Saturday night it was like #65.What could have given it a boost?

So now we all know what’s at the end of a rainbow. We thought it was a pot o gold and it’s a Light! Time will tell if that light is gold or platinum. :laugh_tb:

My RSS feed is showing LO at #47 on iTunes. When I looked, I think Saturday night it was like #65 .What could have given it a boost?

Hmm… could it be the AI commercial over weekend football? I can’t think of anything else, but wow, other than the intro in reverse, I mean, they play what, 1 measure of that song?

All I can think of is the Treelighting and Disney (which hasn’t aired). Oh, and the AI Rockstar ad was shown during football games, I heard.

ETA: sma11ie beat me to it. :smile_wp:

and the AI Rockstar ad was shown during football games,

Slightly OT, but I love that that commercial is appearantly aimed at a male demographic. Way to expose new ears to DC, AI! Also it’s great to know they consider him a draw to a crowd that’s not the immediate American Idol target audience.
And yeah, I think it’s probably a combination of the commercial and increase in radio play. The album is also holding it’s own in the top 20, and I attribute that to LO’s growing exposure as well.

I never bought the Archie isn’t marketable meme at all. The teen market is huge and he sold just fine on itunes during Idol. It was just that Cook sold better. Archies sales were good and Cook’s were really good. In fact what is most striking about these album sales are how in line with Idol itunes sales they are. It always seemed with the popularity bars and the finales sales we got to see that Archie’s sales were about 2/3 of Cook’s, just like they are now. (There were of course exceptions like Imagine/ARN and Billie Jean/You’re the Voice- but I’m talking about the overall season and I’m going off the top of my head so I could be way off base.) Going forward after the holidays they will probably diverge from the Idol track based on songs/genre/radio play etc., but it is interesting that they don’t seem to have yet.

This could also affect Season 8. If the producers think itunes sales from the show are going to reflect real world sales they might pimp/depimp accordingly.

DCTR sales: I refuse to rely on streetpulse. It would be lovely if it were right, but pretty much all of its estimates were substantially higher than they should have been. Every week is different in terms of strength of sales at the different groups that have and have not reported. I maintain hope based on the updates that DCTR’s numbers will be what HDD estimated on Friday.

Itunes: Itunes did not update for over 20 hours, from Sunday afternoon to sometime this afternoon. During that timeframe, a couple of things likely happened. First, some of the Britney songs faded from the upper part of the itunes chart. LO was at about 50 before Britney’s onslaught occurred, so a return to 47 is reasonable, particularly with LO having had good radio airplay this week. Second, LO was featured in several AI ads that played during some big football games on Sunday. That may have also helped.

This could also affect Season 8. If the producers think itunes sales from the show are going to reflect real world sales they might pimp/depimp accordingly.

I agree. I think this already played a major role in this year’s competition.

All that, and also LO video was #1 on VH1 again this week, and he was on Ellen and Leno recently. He’s getting a lot of exposure right now and it seems to be helping his sales.

If the producers think itunes sales from the show are going to reflect real world sales they might pimp/depimp accordingly.

It’s good data combined with weekly vote tallies, for sure, but I don’t think it would be wise to assume iTunes sales from the show directly translates to real world sales. So often, America falls in love with a contestant’s cover of familiar hits, and not care for the original work. Didn’t follow Season 6 that closely, but didn’t Blake handily outsell Jordin on iTunes on the show? I enjoyed a lot of what he did, also, but sampled his album and lost interest. Not my thing. Similarly, I actually saw none of Taylor’s season, but judging from his popularity, I got the sense viewers ate up all his covers, and probably would’ve spent quite a bit to get them had they been available at the time. But the music on his album didn’t quite connect with the public, right?

I think for AI contestants, commercial success post-AI is a crapshoot, and they can’t count on what happened on the show to continue afterwards (as DC has wisely acknowledged). The best thing they can do for themselves in terms of real world sales is to make the best album they can, and hope it connects with the public.

That all sounds right, Smallie. I think that the point here is that it looks like the labels handling DC and DA have positioned them well to get their records notice and selling.

Blake did not outsell Jordin handily, they sold pretty much the same on the official site. The originals Blake covered did better on iTunes, I would say that’s because he had more interesting song choices. So the interest doesn’t translate into sales even during the season.

Season 6 Stats for Downloads: Jordin vs Blake (from when Ken Barnes did his big Sesason Update – they would go on to sell more, but this was about two to three weeks after the finale):

1 Blake: You Give Love a Bad Name: 192,000
2 Jordin: This is My Now: 177,000
3 Jordin: A Broken Wing: 52,000
4 Jordin: I (Who Have Nothing): 44,000
5 Blake: Time of the Season: 39,000
6 Blake: This Love: 38,000
7 Blake: When the Stars Go Blue: 31,000
8 Blake: I Need to Know: 23,000
9 Blake: Imagine: 18,000
10 Jordin: To Love Somebody: 16,000

11 Blake: Love Song: 13,000
12 Blake: You Should Be Dancing: 12,000
13 Jordin: Hey, Baby: 12,000
14 Jordin: Wishing On a Star: 12,000
15 Jordin: If We Hold On Together: 11,000
16 Jordin: Youà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll Never Walk Alone: 11,000
17 Blake: You Keep Me Hanginà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ On: 9,600
18 Blake: Make the Knife: 7,600
20 Jordin: Rhythm is Gonna Get You: 5,800
22 Jordin: On a Clear Day: 4,600

(ranking numbers are from the complete list so other Idols slipped in there for 19 and 21)

Totals:
Blake: 382,000
Jordin: 344,000

I wonder how season 6 would have sold if the downloads were on iTunes for the whole season as opposed to just AI.com, because those numbers compared to what season 7 sold is pretty jarring.

^Yeah I wonder too. That and if the productions were better…

Sma11ie, I don’t disagree that a crappy album will not sell. (Taylor of course being the bright shining example to all.) I think previous seasons singles sales are not applicable. They only sold their most popular songs, not a full season of both good and dreck songs and season 6 wasn’t that widely available if I remember correctly. I just thought that it was interesting that the relative positions seem to have held beyond Idol. Since neither album sucks and they are getting radio play, maybe it’s not that surprising. I think itunes is a good predictor of sales potential, but does not guarantee that you can sell the brand new genre of music you just invented.

ETA: And if you can’t sell anything you have been singing in front of 20-30 million people every week you might consider finding a new line of work – Syesha.

I never bought the Archie isnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t marketable meme at all. The teen market is huge and he sold just fine on itunes during Idol. It was just that Cook sold better. Archies sales were good and Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s were really good. In fact what is most striking about these album sales are how in line with Idol itunes sales they are. It always seemed with the popularity bars and the finales sales we got to see that Archieà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s sales were about 2/3 of Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s, just like they are now. (There were of course exceptions like Imagine/ARN and Billie Jean/Youà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re the Voice- but Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m talking about the overall season and Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m going off the top of my head so I could be way off base.) Going forward after the holidays they will probably diverge from the Idol track based on songs/genre/radio play etc., but it is interesting that they donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t seem to have yet.

I really don’t think their sales during Idol have anything to do with how they’re selling now, especially since you’re talking singles during Idol and albums now. The difference in the way DC and DA are selling has more to do with genre and sales strategy from their different labels than how they sold during Idol. If we did singles to singles, DA would be doing better, and that’s not how it was during Idol.

And I also think that last update was iTunes, regardless of GnR not moving. I’m more apt to believe it was a glitch because everything else makes perfect sense–even the percentage change which seems to be the same percentage change that comes in every time there’s an update that looks suspiciously like iTunes–14.4% (thanks rodze for figuring that out).

Which means at the very least Wal-Mart part 2 is outstanding.

ETA: And if you canà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t sell anything you have been singing in front of 20-30 million people every week you might consider finding a new line of work – Syesha.

Snap! That is bizarre though…..

What exactly is à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“vibe-ratersà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ , (letà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s not go there, LOL)? I am confused why Beyonce, AD/DC or Taylor Swift etc would not be on the top or even in the list?

It’s just new artists that are expected to do well with their first albums or first singles. This is DC’s second week at #1, DA spent a few weeks at #1 as well. DA was on the chart a several weeks longer than DC (simply due to release date) and it looks like they’ve taken him off (he was #2 last week) because he’s technically on his second single now. Guess they don’t consider him brand-spankin’ new anymore. lol.

Syesha just shows that itunes sales aren’t the be-all-to-end-all to whether someone lasts on Idol. She never had a truly bad week, if you look at whatnottosing.com, even if she never had a week that there was a concensus that she was the best. So, she did well enough to get enough votes to survive people who did outsell her during the season but who had rough weeks, but not enough to start selling copies of her songs.

If what has happened here was that itunes updated to HDD, but there was a glitch with GnR, my guess is that GnR should be about 6,000 sales higher—a bit higher than DC, but not a whole lot, as they were near each other throughout the week. Only real relevance there (for our purposes) would be ranking, but it’s out there. I agree that part two of Walmart is still out there, and I still suspect that a part two of Best Buy is also out there—last week, there definitely appeared to be a split in Best Buy’s sales, and the second part was part of a Tuesday update.

and it looks like theyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve taken him off (he was #2 last week) because heà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s technically on his second single now. Guess they donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t consider him brand-spankinà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ new anymore. lol.

What about Duffy though? She’s been on Vibe-raters a really long time, and she is not on her first single any more either.

Thank you very much soundscene! I wondered if it was for new artists, but then saw Tom Jones on that list so I thought it must be something else since Tom has been around the bend and back several times. Wonder how he ended up as a new artist?

What about Duffy though? Sheà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s been on Vibe-raters a really long time, and she is not on her first single any more either.

I was trying to be simplistic because it’s easier to think of it in terms of newness rather than in terms of “breaking,” (and 90% of the artists that make the list WILL be new with their first mainstream single) but if you want to be technical the better question was why Tom Jones is on there.

You just need to read what it says on the top of the page: “this week’s picks to break.” Most of the time the artists will be new because older artists have already “broken” onto the scene.

With Duffy she may not be brand-new, but she’s certainly not mainstream well-known in the US. She’s niche, and she hasn’t broken into the mainstream just yet. Ask 50 random people on the street who she is, and most who recognized the name probably would say she was that VJ who used to be on MTV. We may know who she is, but internet users aren’t the norm.

Then you have people like Tom Jones who have been away from the mainstream but are doing something to move back into the mainstream.

And you have the Plain White T’s who had one massive hit, but still aren’t on most people’s radar (their second song isn’t doing so hot). Same with Secondhand Serenade–people know the song, but they may not know the band.

But you don’t go from #2 to absolutely nothing in one week unless the editorial staff thinks you’ve pretty much “broken” onto the scene. Nothing has changed so much in the span of one week for them to think that DA just hasn’t made it so he’s not going to break anymore. He already has one hit single that’s gone platinum and most people know who he is, not just because of Idol but because of “Crush.” You’re not going to see Pink on the list, or Jordin, or Chris Brown or Jason Mraz or John Mayer or any of those people because it’s not just their current songs that are known, it’s them. DC will probably be removed from that list in a few weeks.

I question the decision to delay the release of Archie’s new single. Crush seems to be shedding spins at the rate of 500 – 600 a week. Yeah, the airwaves are crowded with Xmas tunes, but even if the new track didn’t have a huge breakout on radio in the beginning, it still would be beneficial to get some new music out there. LO dragged its feet for two months, but it finally broke through and has at least become a modest hit, and it appears to be performing its most important job– selling Cook’s album– quite well. So, “A Little Bit Slightly Marginally Minimally Not Too Excessively Exorbitantly Overabundantly Over You”, or whatever it’s called, could potentially follow the same pattern.

I will say that I do think Archie will receive even more of a boost over the holidays than many other artists because some of his fans may not have been able to purchase his album on their own. But, their parents will get it for them for Christmas.

noctem seizure…..oh, ALBSMMNTEEOOY, otherwise known as ALTNOY of course. Yes, I think I know the song your talking about now, lol.

à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“A Little Bit Slightly Marginally Minimally Not Too Excessively Exorbitantly Overabundantly Over Youà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ 

:laugh_tb:

Today DCTR has jumped to 18 on itunes again and LO is 47 on top 100 again. In the top 10 in nearly all the retail stores and 5 on Amazon. Really holding steady.

Ok, so what time are we expecting the final HDD numbers today? I need to know cuz if it’s late, I should really just firm up my resolve to stay away and not obsessively refresh here so I can study today and hopefully not fail any finals…

à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“A Little Bit Slightly Marginally Minimally Not Too Excessively Exorbitantly Overabundantly Over Youà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ 

Bwah!

Each week it has been different. We’ve not had an update up to the 70% zone before on Monday in the weeks that I’ve been watching. Last week, it was around 4 pm when we got the final estimate, and the week before was a touch earlier than that. But who knows.

YEah the update could come any time. Last week we had I think a 70% update but the week before there wasnt and it went straight to the final update. So who knows lol

I think itunes is a good predictor of sales potential, but does not guarantee that you can sell the brand new genre of music you just invented.

I agree with this. I think ITunes can give you an idea of who has a large fanbase that is willing to spend money on them. If you can move large numbers consistently over the season, I think TPTB take notice. Big notice. The Davids were always best at that. I remember a poster at TWoP that pretty much dedicated themselves to analyzing that very thing. LOL. Anyway, ITunes plus maybe the concert crowds can give you an idea of potential, but none of that means anything if you can’t deliver a good product.

I question the decision to delay the release of Archieà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s new single. Crush seems to be shedding spins at the rate of 500 – 600 a week. Yeah, the airwaves are crowded with Xmas tunes, but even if the new track didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t have a huge breakout on radio in the beginning, it still would be beneficial to get some new music out there. LO dragged its feet for two months, but it finally broke through and has at least become a modest hit, and it appears to be performing its most important jobà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’ selling Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s albumà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’ quite well. So, à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“A Little Bit Slightly Marginally Minimally Not Too Excessively Exorbitantly Overabundantly Over Youà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ , or whatever ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s called, could potentially follow the same pattern.

It’s not as if radio stations aren’t going to play ALTNOY in December because the add date is pushed back–they already are playing it. So an argument about whether David needs a single out is moot–he has one that still has a nice audience impression and another one that is starting to get played. Plus, a lot of people already know Crush, whether it’s on the radio now or not. When they see his album in Walmart, they’ll remember. If there’s a time when you don’t need a huge single on the radio to sell an album, it’s December. If there’s one place that Jive definitely knows its stuff–it’s radio airplay and singles. And it knows how to make money off of pop artists.

I’m not going to bring Cook or his song into the discussion, though. I’m tired of correlating two artists that might as well be on different planets considering the different genre and the different way they are promoted, marketed and sold. That goes for album sales AND singles, too.

I question the decision to delay the release of Archieà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s new single. Crush seems to be shedding spins at the rate of 500 – 600 a week. Yeah, the airwaves are crowded with Xmas tunes, but even if the new track didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t have a huge breakout on radio in the beginning, it still would be beneficial to get some new music out there. LO dragged its feet for two months, but it finally broke through and has at least become a modest hit, and it appears to be performing its most important jobà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’ selling Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s albumà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’ quite well. So, à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“A Little Bit Slightly Marginally Minimally Not Too Excessively Exorbitantly Overabundantly Over Youà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ , or whatever ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s called, could potentially follow the same pattern.

It’s not that big of a deal. It’s not like tons of stations were going to be rushing out to add the song to their playlists this month anyway. Basically the same thing that would have happened if it had been sent for adds this week as planned is going to happen now that the impact date has been delayed. A few stations here and there will start spinning it a little bit, and the spins will gradually build as more stations add the song to their playlists over the next couple of months. Even if the impact date had remained the same, the minimal airplay wasn’t going to have a huge impact on Archie’s album sales. Crush, in spite of the decrease in radio spins, is also doing its job in selling the album. So far, his album sales are holding steady and not falling off a cliff, and his single is still selling at a very decent clip. It’s kind of like what I was saying with Light On-if Cook’s album is still selling at a decent clip (and so far it is), there’s no need to yank it in favor of another single. Archie’s album is selling just fine so far, so there’s no need to rush out a new single this month anyway. Waiting until January isn’t going to hurt.

Maybe Jive initially put it out there that ALTNOY would have an add date of 12/09/08 to get the program directors to thinking about when to actually fit it into their radio line up, knowing full well that they would later change the date to 01/06/09. That way, PD’s that have already decided to add it, will go ahead and add it before the official date. As Kirsten pointed out in another thread, this will make it look like the radio stations are all excited to play it even before the official add date, thus prompting the other lemmings to follow suit.
Jive, you sly dog you! :wink_ee:

LO dragged its feet for two months, but it finally broke through and has at least become a modest hit, and it appears to be performing its most important jobà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’ selling Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s albumà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’ quite well. So, à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“A Little Bit Slightly Marginally Minimally Not Too Excessively Exorbitantly Overabundantly Over Youà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ , or whatever ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s called, could potentially follow the same pattern.

Lolol @ that name! Then I think we should call LO.. Lift Off for the way it shot out of the gate.. Heh! Maybe we should have a song renaming thread..er well, we may get a bit wild.

Um, I’m a DC fan, and unless we’re being ironic, I just can’t say that LO shot out of the gate.

LO is more like one of those super-efficient light bulbs—you know, the ones that look kind of spiraled—that can take a little while to warm up, but hey, then they last for years on end.

I don’t know that shooting out of the gate is necessarily the best thing…sort of like premature eja… (ummm nevermind)

LOL gingerly!

Um, Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m a DC fan, and unless weà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re being ironic, I just canà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t say that LO shot out of the gate.

Yea, I was just being silly from what noctem said about LO dragging it’s feet.

gingerly – *L* This is why I tacked on the getting wild bit… haha

On topic… Go numbers!

LOL, if LO is anything like Magic Rainbow, then he’ll be like one of those LED light bulbs that last for 10 years, those Decade Bulbs. I could say that there was a heavy lampshade on LO, which dimmed its ambiency, but it’s now been lifted, but I don’t wait to kill the anology or get too think with the cheese.

Long may LO shine!

The things that happen when HDD won’t give us an update….

I wondered if you were being ironic IGC, but liked the light bulb thing and decided to run with it.

CHART DATE: 12/08/2008
LAST UPDATE: 12/09/2008 13:46:05
NOW IN: FINAL

LW TW artist / album label power index % change
– 1 BRITNEY SPEARS JIVE/ZLG 504,507 —
CIRCUS
2 2 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 182,517 -29%
FEARLESS
4 3 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 148,546 -42%
I AM… SASHA FIERCE
1 4 KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 145,041 -67%
808S & HEARTBREAK
7 5 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 135,952 -20%
DARK HORSE
8 6 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 134,333 -17%
SOUNDTRACK
– 7 AKON SRC/UNIVERSAL MOTOWN 106,626 —
FREEDOM
9 8 NOW 29 UME 90,293 -35%
VARIOUS ARTISTS
10 9 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 88,424 -19%
DAVID COOK
11 10 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL: SENIOR YEAR WALT DISNEY RECORDS 84,051 -16%
SOUNDTRACK
12 11 AC/DC COLUMBIA 82,922 -8%
BLACK ICE
19 12 ENYA REPRISE 67,470 3%
AND WINTER CAME
17 13 FAITH HILL WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 66,084 -8%
JOY TO THE WORLD
14 14 IL DIVO COLUMBIA 64,250 -23%
PROMISE
6 15 KILLERS ISLAND/IDJMG 61,227 -68%
DAY & AGE
5 16 LUDACRIS DTP/DEF JAM/IDJ 60,812 -71%
THEATER OF THE MIND
3 17 GUNS N’ ROSES GEFFEN 56,230 -78%
CHINESE DEMOCRACY
29 18 ELVIS PRESLEY LEGACY 55,344 45%
ELVIS PRESLEY CHRISTMAS DUETS
18 19 DAVID ARCHULETA 19/JIVE/ZLG 54,433 -20%
DAVID ARCHULETA

Congratulations, Davids!!! :thumbup_tb:

Awesome—DC is #9, and higher than the Friday projection. If this is on the money, DC would be just over 20,000 shy of 500K in sales, which should mean that he’d easily make it in his fourth week of sales.

Looks like Cookie’s gonna be GOLD soon! Weeeeeeee!

Good for both David’s keeping those drops below the standard 25% for 3rd and 4th weeks. Let’s hope these numbers hold.

Woohoo! Cookie in the top 10 three weeks in a row!

Those percentage decreases are wrong actually. I never noticed before, but HDD calculates from their estimated numbers from last week, not the final soundscan numbers (which is why when I recalculated after thursday the actual percentage decrease, it’s different).

If those numbers hold, DA’s decrease is about 18%, DC’s about 21%. Makes sense for holiday buying the week after Black Friday for both (since you would expect last weekend’s numbers to be inflated, and this weekend to be only slightly inflated).

If I was going by Pink’s sales (since she’s a pop Zomba artist), DA should have been around 35-40K this week, so he’s doing very well and responding nicely to holiday shopping.

If this is on the money, DC would be just over 20,000 shy of 500K in sales, which should mean that heà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢d easily make it in his fourth week of sales.

I really hope so.

Would be a nice Bday present for ol’ DC.

Way stabilize DC! That is fantastic.

And if you compare DC to the big named artists, and their 2nd week respective totals/drops, theirs were bigger than his: The Killers -67%, GNR -78%, Kanye -67%. 2nd week DCTR only -60%.

These are not the final, validated numbers, right? Regardless, if the percentages might be off by plus or minus single digits (from the -19% projected), I’m not going to sweat it. So DC -21% or -19% for third week sales at an estimated 88K units sold. Well, I’ll more than take that. He’s nearly sold 480K units. Awesome.

Both Davids’ high sales numbers have stabilized and show that their first few weeks sales were not anamolies. Yay.

SashaB–these aren’t the final numbers–we’ll get those tomorrow (probably). Could be up to a few thousand difference either way.

In defense of The Killers and Kanye–they didn’t have the advantage of Black Friday weekend being their second week, although both should have probably sold a tad better than they did since it still is the holiday buying season.

As for GnR… well, Axl is on his own with that drop.

Oh, and if these numbers hold DA didn’t drop a spot. He was 19 last week in the final chart b/c Enya moved up with the final numbers.

OMG Britney!! I’m excited for the Davids but I’m excited for her too! That’s one hell of a comeback!

Those percentage decreases are wrong actually. I never noticed before, but HDD calculates from their estimated numbers from last week, not the final soundscan numbers (which is why when I recalculated after thursday the actual percentage decrease, ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s different).

They have to compare them to their last week estimates to compare apples to apples. They use the same basic methodology every week, so to most closely estimate the drop, they have to compare estimates to estimates. They hope that their predictive models are consistently wrong (which they are not, but record buying behaviour is difficult to model).

HDD numbers just give us ballpark numbers and percentage drops. We shall see the “real” numbers tomorrow (even SS numbers don’t completely reflect sales because they too do some modeling and cannot count from all vendors as shown by the differences between SS numbers and actual numbers for Christian artists).

Let’s look at it another way: If HDD is correct, here are a few comparisons:

Beyonce’s week 3 compared to week 1: 30.8%
DCTR’s week 3 compared to week 1: 31.6%
Nickelback’s week 3 compared to week 1: 41.7%
Kanye’s week 2 compared to week 1: 33%
GnR’s week 2 compared to week 1: 22%

So, both Beyonce and Nickelback had better week 2 declines than DCTR. Nickelback and DCTR had better week 3 declines than Beyonce. The net result is that DCTR’s total decline is now roughly equal with Beyonce’s, while Nickelback’s total decline is better than both of them. In the meantime, all three of them have total declines of less than GnR’s week 2 decline, and look pretty good sitting next to Kanye.

Put simply, the fretting about DC’s second-week decline should be at an end. If the numbers are anything close to this, he’s looking good for someone at the end of his third week.

OMG Britney!! Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m excited for the Davids but Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m excited for her too! Thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s one hell of a comeback!

Certainly is. It seems that she has exceeded industry expectations and has greatly outsold her previous effort (290K? Something like that).

May I also add that Taylor Swift is doing simply amazing.

My only point was that I was giving DA a little more credit than HDD did in terms of his stability. That’s all. I wasn’t making a point about DC. I said both their drops were consistent with their position in terms of numbers of weeks out and the fact that it’s the week after Black Friday.

May I also add that Taylor Swift is doing simply amazing.

She is. But I also think that she’s become one of the most overrated artists out there. Girl is a fine songwriter but she can’t sing. She’s a product of massive cross-promotion.

I’m just happy that both of them survived post-BF with minimal injuries. Yay! Who would have thought that being made out of “fluffy unicorns and rainbows” or being a “goober from the Midwest” could be this successful? :clap_tb:

Heà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s looking good for someone at the end of his third week.

Indeed.

Put simply, the fretting about DCà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s second-week decline should be at an end.

As I said last week, 2 or 3 weeks worth of sales data is not sufficient to decide the success/failure of a project. Cookie’s third week drop is definitely a sign in the right direction. When you consider that overall sales are likely less this week than last, that makes it even more significant that he had a smaller 2nd to 3rd week drop.

What I’m saying, before it is twisted elsewhere:
A) Cookie’s drop is a good sign especially this week.
B) Marathon, not a sprint.
C) Staying in the top 10 is great.

Please note: I’m not saying anything negative about Cook at all.

If the numbers are anything close to this, heà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s looking good for someone at the end of his third week.

Comparing between formats doesn’t always give you a full picture. Rappers like Kanye always seem to experience big second week drops. Add in the fact that this week is likely less than the previous week and his drop isn’t bad. What’s bad is his crappy first week numbers (crappy for him, great for many others). Comparing is tough in general. There are very few apple to apple comparisons. If we put Cookie in the Rock category, he should be compared to Nickelback and G&R, but Nickelback is Nickelback and Axl is kind of on another planet, so those wouldn’t be fair comparisons either. LOL.

Let’s just go with this drop is a good sign. IMO.

[Taylor] is a fine songwriter but she canà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t sing.

You won’t get an argument from me there. I was stunned the first time I saw her sing live and I don’t think I’ve ever seen her sing live well. But, if people want to buy her album, more power to them. I don’t think Britney can sing live either. Whatever, they are making people happy somehow with their music, so good for the fans and artists.

And kudos to the Autotuner who managed to get the top two spots this week (sorry, couldn’t resist)

Yay Cookie!!!

^^Intentionally choosing not to go cerebral, staying total fan girly! LOL

We should see increases for both Davids the next couple of weeks, yes? Perhaps another 3-400K for David Cook by the year’s end and platinum some time in January, or is that too optimistic?

Awww, poor Taylor. Ya know, she’s not my cup o’ tea, but the two times I’ve heard her live, I can see the draw. Precious and pure sells her live, sincerity and songwriting sells her recorded. I guess I get it. I don’t buy the music, but I get why she’s popular.

And, I agree, a big ol’ “atta girl” goes to Ms Spears. I am very happy for her.

Well, I’ll admit that Taylor’s CD was on my list to Santa this year. I agree that she cannot sing live, but I really enjoy her CDs. I really like the songs. I suppose if those songs were sung by someone else, I would probably still like them and buy the CD. I guess the thing is, when I am in my car listening to my music, I am listening to the CD songs, not the live versions.

^^^Mac, you’re obviously in good company, and if sales are any indication, you have an awful lot of it too! :laughing_tb:

All that I’m saying is that last week, there was fretting about, gee, DC’s second week decline, should it have been lower because of Black Friday. It seems like that decline was balanced out by his third week decline, which was pretty small in relation to the typical third-week decline and in relation to the typically weak week. Which, if I read what you’ve said correctly, means that you weren’t actually disagreeing with me, Kirsten.

Hezehel: It looks like DC will be handily above 500K by the end of this week (12/14) with ten shopping days until Christmas. This makes me think that he’ll be somewhere between 600K to 700K by the end of the year. Could he be higher? Sure—and I’d love to have underestimated this—but this range seems reasonable. That gives him another 300K to 400K to go for platinum, depending on just how strong his numbers are for December. That seems like a lot for him to gain in January. I tend to think that platinum by sometime partway through the Idol season seems quite doable.

Which, if I read what youà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve said correctly, means that you werenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t actually disagreeing with me, Kirsten.

Yes, I wasn’t disagreeing with you. Cookie’s third week drop is definitely a trend in the right direction.

seems like a lot for him to gain in January.

I agree with you. Some weeks in January have the top selling album move in the 60K range (that is not a typo), so if your estimates of 300-400K to reach platinum after Christmas are correct, it would be tough to reach platinum in January (not to say it couldn’t be done, but it would be unlikely).

“Kristin said:

They have to compare them to their last week estimates to compare apples to apples. They use the same basic methodology every week, so to most closely estimate the drop, they have to compare estimates to estimates.”

*Applause, Applause*

As a mathematics major I’ve sometimes cringed at some of the faulty logic and the lack of sound mathematic principles exhiibited here on occasion, but I have not wanted to correct them…I didn’t want to be labeled as a fan of one David over another. I prefer to straddle the “fence” between the two. I’m glad, Kristin that you made the above comment. That is basic logic 101 that (IMO) sometimes gets lost in the “spinning” of the numbers. Kudos to you for pointing that out.

It looks like DC will be handily above 500K by the end of this week (12/14) with ten shopping days until Christmas. This makes me think that heà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll be somewhere between 600K to 700K by the end of the year.

Don’t they normally get a big bounce for Christmas? I’d say 700-800K by the end of the year.

But there usually is a pretty solid dropoff of sales after Xmas—some will be sold during the post-Xmas sales, but…. I guess what I’d say is that I think that 600K to 700K is a pretty reasonable amount to guesstimate, but I’d love for your range to be the correct one.

I’m trying to keep my expectations reasonable to low, because honestly, projecting too high only leads to disappointment.
DC will definitely hit Gold next week, and I can see him reaching, like FolkFan said, about 600-700K by year’s end. I’m not counting on a huge Christmas bounce, after the way Black Friday sales disappointed this year. With this economic climate, I find it hard to believe sales will sky rocket as they may have done in previous years.
So staying modest, let’s say 650K by year’s end? That would be fantastic. A 2nd single in the new year could push DCTR into Platinum territory, and so far LO seems to be doing it’s job and selling the album. We’ll see how it all trends out.

Right now I’m really curious to see if DCTR could stay in the Top 10 for a 4th week. Too much to hope for? He did go one place up this week if this holds… IDK. Fingers crossed though.

Top 10 next week certainly isn’t guaranteed, but it seems DCTR has a reasonable chance at it. If the numbers hold, he’s #9. Britney would probably stay above him, but Akon will probably drop below him. I’m not sure that any of the new releases this week are going to be big sellers—maybe Brandy? That definitely puts him in the mix for top 10 next week.

That gives him another 300K to 400K to go for platinum, depending on just how strong his numbers are for December. That seems like a lot for him to gain in January. I tend to think that platinum by sometime partway through the Idol season seems quite doable.

It’s definitely A LOT to gain and it’s a lot easier said than done. Like Kristen said, those post Christmas drop-offs are scary. Even before we got hit with this financial crisis they were bad so I’m thinking by January it’s going to brutal. Even if airplay increases by leaps and bounds I don’t think he’ll have sales to put him anywhere close to gaining an additional 300,000.

*Applause, Applause*

As a mathematics major Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve sometimes cringed at some of the faulty logic and the lack of sound mathematic principles exhiibited here on occasion, but I have not wanted to correct themà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦I didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t want to be labeled as a fan of one David over another. I prefer to straddle the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“fenceà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  between the two. Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m glad, Kristin that you made the above comment. That is basic logic 101 that (IMO) sometimes gets lost in the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“spinningà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  of the numbers. Kudos to you for pointing that out.

Kirsten was responding to me. I wasn’t spinning numbers nor was I attempting to be mathematical. I noticed that based on the soundscan numbers the percentage declines would be wrong, if the numbers hold. Then I said, if the numbers hold here’s where their actual drop-off would be. That’s not fuzzy math or spinning.

I’d like to hear some DA album sales analysis from the numbers people here. His total is around 365 I think. I guess I thought he would do better because of the Jingle Jam crowds and all the appearances and interviews he’s had last week and this. Is he following a normal sales path or is he doing better than most. Would just like to hear some input regarding his sales and possible projections. Anybody?

Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢d like to hear some DA album sales analysis from the numbers people here. His total is around 365 I think. I guess I thought he would do better because of the Jingle Jam crowds and all the appearances and interviews heà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s had last week and this. Is he following a normal sales path or is he doing better than most. Would just like to hear some input regarding his sales and possible projections. Anybody?

I never thought of Jingle Ball or Jingle Jam concerts as really boosting album sales all that much. I expected them to get his name out there in local areas, and to allow him to develop stronger relationships with certain key radio stations. Sure, some who saw him will go home and buy his album, but these concerts don’t have nearly the same effect as a television appearance. And if the concert is promoted in that city, then it’s really just going to be a very localized effect. If he sells a few more albums because of the concerts, then great, but I don’t think that’s their primary purpose. It’s a much longer term plan at work here involving radio airplay.

As for a normal sales pattern, it’s all messy right now because it’s December. Sales this month won’t give us much insight into how he’ll sell once the holidays are over. I think one of the few things it tells us is that his album is not a sinker. lol. Obviously, if he were selling like poor T-Pain there would be something to worry about, but he’s doing much better than that.

Thanks soundscene. I would love to have read some more general numbers talk regarding his album. He was in the top 20 also. Oh well, look over me, I think I’m just wanting to hear more than I am, lol. This thread looks to drop off the front page any time now, another post or two up page and this will be gone anyway. Doh! I just thought of something -*lightbulb* – a fan site! That’s what I’ll do, I’ll go search, lol. It’ll be difficult though because nobody analyses like at MJ’s. I guess I’ve been spoiled too much here from so much excellent input over time, lol

I agree with you soundscene. The Jingle Jam/Ball appearances will set the stage for these radio stations being more than happy to add Archie’s next single to their playlists in January, and hopefully having other radio stations follow suit. It’s great for everyone all around — the radio stations get entertainment for free (and they get to keep whatever money they raise from ticket sales), the fans get to see acts that are hot and current (and in turn the radio station generates goodwill from its audience), and Archie gets radio stations that will champion his newest single not only with increased airplay but hopefully with some nice comments from DJs who may have met him during these concerts.

Thanks soundscene. I would love to have read some more general numbers talk regarding his album. He was in the top 20 also. Oh well, look over me, I think Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m just wanting to hear more than I am, lol. This thread looks to drop off the front page any time now, another post or two up page and this will be gone anyway. Doh! I just thought of something -*lightbulb* – a fan site! Thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s what Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll do, Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll go search, lol.

lol. I’m not sure how much numbers talk his fansites really do. IDF does do some, and there’s a thread in his forum.

If you want my opinion, he’s doing great. He’s selling really well for his genre and for the way that Jive is promoting him and his music. There’s a lot of things I don’t pretend to understand, though. Jive does things differently, and some I’ve had to speculate about in order to try to understand. For example, why isn’t the album on sale anywhere? It was only on sale for 1 week at Walmart and is now selling full-price everywhere. Is there enough CDs available given the demand, since it seems a lot of stores sell out pretty quickly after shipments arrive? How many did they ship, anyway? I’d love to know the answers to those questions. But despite that, I think he’s doing awesome.

But there usually is a pretty solid dropoff of sales after Xmasà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’ some will be sold during the post-Xmas sales

It seems though that a lot of people get ipods, store gift cards and iTunes gift cards for Christmas. Won’t people be using those right after Christmas? It seems like iTunes would get some of their biggest sales on Christmas day or right after. What kid wouldn’t want to try out their new ipods by downloading some cool new music?

It seems like iTunes would get some of their biggest sales on Christmas day or right after.

It sure does. Boxing day is Black Friday for iTunes as people cruise on over to pick up songs to fill up their iPod. I seem to recall that Jordin Sparks was the first Idol to break 200K in sales in a single week and she did it during the post-Christmas week. The first quarter is typically the highest sales for iTunes. Meanwhile, you could throw a CD down an aisle in a record store in January and not hit anybody (it doesn’t help the numbers that some CDs also get returned).

For example, why isnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t the album on sale anywhere?

Record labels typically participate in sales. You will see some CDs that will stay at $9.99 for months (sometimes longer than a year). This really helps to move CDs because people seem much more willing to pay ten bucks for a CD (one of those pyschological barriers) than $13.99 (and forget paying $18.99 or whatever – nobody pays that). You know that a record label is really promoting somebody if their CD is going for this price (or lower) for months. The flip side of this is that the royalties paid for these discounted CDs is smaller. That means it takes longer for the artist to get out of recoupment and start earning money. So the plus side is bigger numbers and the negative side is almost no money. Remember, there are a lot of people that need to get paid from each CD sale. The store, the shipping company, the CD manufacturer, the songwriters, the record label, the producer and, last of all, the artist and his agent (and those last two only get paid after the advance and promo costs are paid off. The advance is used to pay for the recording costs)).

I think that you’d see a good amount of shopping right after Xmas, but then a big slowdown. That seems pretty typical. I also suspect on itunes that there is a question as to whether the people doing all of the buying are getting whole albums, or just singles. But yeah, I think that you’d get some good shopping numbers right after Xmas. Again, I’d love it if I’ve underestimated the attractiveness of DCTR to pre- and post-Xmas shoppers. But I’m not going to count on it.

I was a little surprised to see DC and DA priced higher the last two weekends at multiple stores than Beyonce and Britney. But then it occurred to me that, to the extent that a given store is eating some or all of the discount, it may be that they choose the CDs to discount that they think will bring in more people to the store, or that will bring in the “right buyers.” The music section at the Target near me has a heavy urban/R&B slant. So the fact that they have Beyonce at a much better price than DC, DA, or Nickelback may reflect that they think that that will bring in more buyers than a sale on those other CDs. On the other hand, it’s my understanding that DC and Nickelback (which were both more expensive at Best Buy than several others of the bigger sellers the last two weekends) were to go on sale at Best Buy this week. Well, if you were to look at the top 20 albums the last couple of weeks and identify ones that seem like they might have some cross-over possibility for GnR, I would tend to think that DC and Nickelback would be the ones that you would identify. So, Best Buy could be deciding to eat something on DC and Nickelback to try to sell more GnR.

With all the people/places to pay first, how much does the artist end up with and get paid per cd roughly?

When people like Beyonce and Taylor Swift are selling at the rate they are they can afford to keep having their CD on sale. Expect Britney to be on sale a couple of more weeks at least after her huge opening week, too,

My basis for January sales are just from what I’ve seen over the years. Maybe the few days following Christmas there’s some activity due to gift cards being used but January sales always plummet. I’ve never seen anyones sales spike. In fact when I followed Carrie and Chris’ early sales religiously even they saw big tumbles right after the holidays despite being huge, huge sellers in November/December.

But then it occurred to me that, to the extent that a given store is eating some or all of the discount, it may be that they choose the CDs to discount that they think will bring in more people to the store, or that will bring in the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“right buyers.

I don’t think record stores decide what to put on sale, I’m pretty sure the label cuts deals with them.

I’ve heard it’s 15-20% (after the retailer takes their cut?) But out of that artist’s cut, you pay management, your band. And THEN whatever is left over, keeps going back to the label till you’ve paid back your advance, your promo, your studio time (recoupments)…Apparently it’s common for artists to get their advance and never see a penny afterwards if they don’t sell enough records. Cheery, eh?

Artists come out much better from tour proceeds, which is why some acts seem to stay on tour forever — it’s the only way to make any money.

With all the people/places to pay first, how much does the artist end up with and get paid per cd roughly?

I know I’m going to get my fingers rapped for this because I’ve been told a bazillion times, but I’m not all that interested in what they get paid because the money isn’t being paid to me so these facts do not stay in my brain. /disclaimer

But, here is an old article from Rolling Stone discussing the matter:

This breakdown of the cost of a typical major-label release by the independent market-research firm Almighty Institute of Music Retail shows where the money goes for a new album with a list price of $15.99.

$0.17 Musicians’ unions
$0.80 Packaging/manufacturing
$0.82 Publishing royalties
$0.80 Retail profit
$0.90 Distribution
$1.60 Artists’ royalties
$1.70 Label profit
$2.40 Marketing/promotion
$2.91 Label overhead
$3.89 Retail overhead

Before the artist get’s paid royalties, they must pay back their advance which is also used to pay for the recording (studio time, materials, producer’s upfront fee). They must also pay back someo the record promotion budget (e.g. half the video cost). Paying back the label is called recoupment. Out of the royalties (and even before they get paid) they must pay the producer’s a cut of the royalties. Once they start making money, they have to give their agent a cut of the royalties. They also have to pay lawyers and business advisors and for their posse.

Oh, and if all that doesn’t suck enough, if they have a multi-album deal with the label, the label can hold some of the royalties in reserve in case their second or third album doesn’t make enough to recoup the recording/promotion costs.

Long term readers here at MJ will have seen much better explanations about recoupment than I could ever give.

Who is paying for lodging, meals, airline tickets, personal maintenance? Is that advances and part of what they have to pay back?

Wow, they really have to pay their dues up to and including blood, sweat, and tears it seems. So they start to obtain their houses, cars, after tours then, right?

Who is paying for lodging, meals, airline tickets, personal maintenance? Is that advances and part of what they have to pay back?

I think it depends on the contract. I seem to recall that this is one thing that the label does pay for (for the promo band during the promo tour). Once they start touring though, the artist pays for all those costs (and if they get signed up to a 360 deal, which is what Idol was rumoured to be moving to starting in Season 6, then it’s even tougher to make money touring). The label may advance some tour support money (for the regular tour), but they will expect to be paid back.

Please note, I don’t work in the entertainment industry and I’m just going by what I remember (which I’ve just disclaimed isn’t much). Please consult a lawyer before using anything I’ve said to sign a contract with 19M.

Oh, I don’t think I’ll be signing a contract with 19M any time soon, LOL. I was just curious about some of this stuff. No more, no less. (and would like to see both DC and DA come into financial success eventually)

Mmm. I’m going to bet that stores have some say as to what to put on sale. There are legal limits on distributors’ abilities to impose floors on resale prices. It may be that there are a lot of situations in which a store and a label agree that the label will eat some, most, or all of a discount, but I’m also going to bet that there are times when a store eats a huge portion of a discount. E.g., when amazon mp3 has recently had some ridiculously cheap prices for new bestsellers that clearly didn’t need the help—Taylor Swift? Nickelback? They didn’t need a $3.99 deal from a fairly small seller in order to get great numbers their debut weeks. I would be shocked to find out that Amazon didn’t eat a chunk, if not all, of that super sale, which was likely being done to try to sway some itunes customers over to Amazon. The label may have agreed to it, but I’m going to bet that Amazon ate a lot of the discount. I would think that the same thing can happen with the bricks-and-mortar stores.

I recall a DJ asked DA whether he bought any big ticket items now that he was a hit recording artist and his answer was, roughly, “It takes a lot of money to make a record.”

Kirsten, are the AI winners subject to recoupment? If so, that sucks. I thought that the major part of winning AI was to get the contract. How about the runner ups?

Kirsten, are the AI winners subject to recoupment? If so, that sucks. I thought that the major part of winning AI was to get the contract. How about the runner ups?

I assume they are both subject to recoupment.

I wouldn’t be surprised if DA’s and DC’s contracts are slightly different in terms of all that stuff, but I doubt we’ll ever know.

Yeah that would suck if the winner didn’t actually “win” anything besides a shiny title.

Yeah that would suck if the winner didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t actually à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“winà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  anything besides a shiny title.

He did win something–the contract. Or I may be confused as to what the issue is. lol. Sorry, it’s late.

My question is – if an album brings in so little, what does a single bring? Do Platinum (singles) selling artists make nothing off the sales alone?

No wonder the Top 10 were so happy to go on the tour. Sounds to me like that just might be the best money they’ll ever make. 53 dates and no recoupment…

It had always been my understanding that the winner also got some money toward the first record (which would reduce the need for recoupment, as some costs would be paid up front), but I don’t know if that is correct and how that could be proven or disproven.

Kirsten, are the AI winners subject to recoupment?

I think the only people that really know the answer to that question are the Idols and 19Alphabet/Sony.

It’s been hotly debated, but it isn’t much of a prize if it is subject to recoupment. That’s not to say that reality show prizes are all they are claimed to be. For instance, the winner of America’s Got Talent gets 1 million dollars…over 20 years. One of those cooking competition shows was supposed to make the winner a chef of his own restaurant, but gave out some pots instead. The winner of Season 2 SYTCD decided to pass on the main prize (getting to be a dancer in Celine’s Las Vegas show).

It’s tough to get a recording contract, so even a million dollar contract which is subject to recoupment is a pretty good deal to many people (Leona Lewis apparently got something like a 10 million dollar/pound/whatever contract, though, so the Idol prize isn’t the most “generous” contract in the world) .

But here is an interesting question. If you do get guaranteed a million dollars worth of recoupment free recording contract, what does Taylor Hicks’s experience tell us? He didn’t get a single released until 3 months after the CD. If they paid payola for that song, they couldn’t have paid very much. He didn’t make a video. He didn’t have ads everywhere. etc.etc.etc. If they spent a million dollars on his promotion/recording/etc, how much more must they have spent on other people (and how long will it take to pay that back)? Granted, labels have rather creative accounting (my mind still boggles at the $200K for Blake’s video…dude got ripped off). So, did he get a million dollars worth of stuff? If not, what does that say about the prize? If he did get a million dollars worth of promotion, then most Idol winners probably exceed the prize amount and do have to pay at least some recoupment.

My question is – if an album brings in so little, what does a single bring? Do Platinum (singles) selling artists make nothing off the sales alone?

No wonder the Top 10 were so happy to go on the tour. Sounds to me like that just might be the best money theyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll ever make. 53 dates and no recoupmentà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦

I don’t think they divide up the album sales from the single sales and only recoup from the album sales. Whatever money comes in from the album or the single as royalties to the artist is fair game for recoupment.

And most platinum-selling singles artists do sell some albums.

My question is – if an album brings in so little, what does a single bring?

Er…I know I’ve been told this (a bazillion times), but I don’t remember (I’m just not into managing the financial lives of the artists I like although the number itself is interesting). They do make money. 4.05 cents a track or something (4.5? Obviously, I’m no expert at this stuff). LOL. I do know that songwriters get 9 cents (I even have proof)). Songwriting is always the way to go because there is no recoupment on that and you get paid from the first track sold.

Oh, and for those that haven’t read it yet, Courtney Love’s article about recoupment is a very interesting and frightening read (and often quoted).

I think we can debate whether winners have to recoup that first million (we’ll never know unless somebody spills), but it strikes me when looking at Jordin’s promotion, video, etc., it’s no different than what Jive is doing for DA this year. You would think that if there was that $1 million coming in from 19 (and it would have to be coming from 19), they would have done something more with it. But there’s a vast difference in the level of spending that seems to be going on this year for the winner as opposed to last year. Technically, the recording contract itself would have been the same.

Songwriting is always the way to go because there is no recoupment on that and you get paid from the first track sold.

That’s great news for DC then since he has songwriting credits in all but 2 (or is it 3) songs in DCTR. Between that and the artists’ royalties, he should be able to have a prosperous year ahead.

Well sleepyinsomniac, it would depend on how many songs you consider the record contains. The no songwriting credits for DC are LO, TOML and CBTM. I don’t consider TOML part of the record so it’s 2 songs for me. If I considered all the bonus tracks the record would have 16 songs. I don’t know that my thinking means all that much to anybody so saying 3 songs he has no songwriter credit on works for any permutation.

But here is an interesting question. If you do get guaranteed a million dollars worth of recoupment free recording contract, what does Taylor Hicksà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s experience tell us? He didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t get a single released until 3 months after the CD. If they paid payola for that song, they couldnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t have paid very much. He didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t make a video. He didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t have ads everywhere. etc.etc.etc. If they spent a million dollars on his promotion/recording/etc, how much more must they have spent on other people (and how long will it take to pay that back)?

I don’t know the answer, but as a Taylor observer, my assumption is that Taylor passed on some of the usual promotional tools (such as the cheesy video) in return for putting the money into his tour band, mostly road veterans that couldn’t have come cheap. Since my local AC station never played Taylor’s singles except at 1 am, and plays Magic Rainbows every morning, I assume Taylor didn’t get much in the way of payola.

He did win somethingà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’the contract.

Yeah, that’s true — and it is something when you consider the track record of finalists 3 and below getting deals. It seems to have become the practice though to sign the runner-up as well, so what with that and the car (what’s this about Kelly saying she didn’t get the car?), it seems making Finale is good enough already.

Then there’s the idea that given the exposure you get from Idol, and the craziness of the Idol record/management contracts, would you be better off NOT being bound to them, and striking a deal (recoupment and all) elsewhere.

One of those things I suppose that will stay a mystery…

^^ DA has said that he still doesn’t have the car. I don’t know what’s up that.

Lame. 19 is shady.

DA has said that he still doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t have the car. I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t know whatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s up that.

In one of the interviews, I believe that David said that he just has not had time to go pick it up yet. He said that he does not need to go to LA to pick it up, he can arrange to get it from any local Ford dealer. He doesn’t really need it right now anyway. He has not been at his home in Utah for any significant length of time because he’s been crisscrossing the country so much. He gets chauffeured around. Maybe they’ll pick it up after the Jingle Balls so that he’ll have it for his 18th birthday!

Maybe theyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll pick it up after the Jingle Balls so that heà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll have it for his 18th birthday!

It’s lookin’ like it’s going to be one mighty fantastic birthday for DA!

Wait, apparently DA already did get his car according to a radio interview he did yesterday while he was in Toronto. He also talks about how much money he’s gotten so far. Evidently, he really has no idea. He realizes that a lot of the money garnered from the album and singles will have to go to different people.

http://www.z1035.com/includes/podcasts/David_Archuleta_Interview.mp3