American Idol 12- SirMac’s Top 8 Power List

There was a huge debate last week about whether or not Paul should have gone home. I’m surprised, personally, since it’s really obvious why he went home. He ranked low the previous week, and he’s struggled all season with authenticity. So when he sang a song void of country twang, and then complained that he couldn’t make a Beatles song country (only to be shown up by Janelle), he was promptly sent home. He lost a chunk of his fanbase that was voting for him because he was a country artist. Country fans demand authenticity, and Paul doesn’t have it.

Now, onto our current top 8.

8) Devin Velez- Two consecutive showings in the bottom show that his fanbase is limited, and only able to help him skate by week-after-week. He might skate by again this week, but he’s not long for this world. He also seems to not really have a clear idea of who he is as an artist, and comes across as just a really good karaoke singer. Motown week should be kind to his vocal stylings, but it’s not a guarantee. If Lazaro has a good week, Devin could be going home.

7) Lazaro Arbos- He’s a polarizing contestant. Heejun left in 9th place, Tim Urban left in 7th place, Scott MacIntyre left in 8th place, Kristy Lee Cook left in 7th, Sanjaya left in 7th, Haley Scarnato left in 8th place, Bucky left in 8th place… you get the point. A lot of “polarizing” contestants have left 7th-9th place. Lazaro hasn’t had a strong performance in a while, and has started to blame other people for his bad performances. I think he’s going to find himself in danger this week. It’s unlikely he knows the song he’s singing. I think he might be going home this week, though Devin clearly is a prime candidate also for elimination.

6) Amber Holcomb- The first girl to hit the bottom will have to put her game face on this week. I feel like Motown is a great theme for her to rebound on, she’s probably safe this week. I’m a little more worried about Janelle, but that’s coming up. What Amber needs to do, beyond Motown week, is not choose boring songs. I realize that people found her vocals last week flawless, but that song was a dirge. It was like listening to death slowly approaching. She needs better songs so she can actually entertain her fans.

5) Janelle Arthur- I’m a little worried about Janelle and tonight’s theme. She is also likely to be performing early this week. If her fans don’t rest on their laurels, she should be safe this week. But if they forget to vote, and she turns in a mediocre performance, she might find herself in the bottom. The only reason I ranked her above Amber, is that it’s way more likely that they would save Janelle who has never been in the bottom before, versus Amber who was in the bottom last week. The save is usually used on singers who don’t repeat in the bottom week after week. I struggle to think that the save would be used on anyone who isn’t Angie/Kree/Candice, but I think Janelle has a better shot of being saved than Amber.

4) Burnell Taylor- As the boys continue to underperform, it becomes more and more clear that it’s likely Burnell will be the last boy standing. Plus, Motown week seems like a week where Burnell would excel. It’s entirely possible he’ll be the only guy standing against 5 girls, and while it would be beautiful to have a Top 5 of all girls, does anyone REALLY think that’s going to happen? It’s at least semi-likely that Burnell will finish 4th or 5th.

3) Angie Miller- Had a bit of depimping last week after being told she was too “theatrical” by Jimmy. She’s still consistent, at least since hitting the Top 10. Really, the top 3 girls seems to be interchangeable at this point, and anyone of them could win. Angie’s strength is her “artistry”, and any chance she can take to flip a song into her own cover, she should take it. She hasn’t used the piano in a few weeks, and probably doesn’t need to pull it out this week. But she shouldn’t ignore it forever either.

2) Kree Harrison- I think she’s a strong contender for the crown, but the fact is that Candice has slightly outperformed her the last two weeks. It’s hard not to put Candice in first, but Kree is definitely nipping at her heels. All three of our girls are playing the long game, and playing it well so far. One bad performance from any of them could mean the difference between 3rd place and the finale.

1) Candice Glover- After two strong showings the past two weeks, and heading into Motown week, I have to keep Candice at #1. I’m sure she’ll pick a boring song at some point, and I’ll slip her down to 2nd or 3rd, but she’s having a moment right now. There are still a LOT of weeks to go, and Candice is running the risk of peaking too early, and leaving room for Angie or Kree to pass her later in the season. Another thing working against Candice is that no “returnee” has ever made the finale, let alone won the entire competition. She would be breaking ground just by making the finale, let alone winning.

We shall see how Wednesday’s show pans out, but right now, I think Lazaro and Devin are the most in trouble, with Janelle and Amber as outside possibilities.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=34307244 Shana Collier

    A major issue I’ve been having with this season is that everything seems to be so obvious. Does ANYONE think that a contestant other than Candice, Kree, or Angie could win? It just seems like in other seasons there has been twice as many people contending for the title.

  • EdmondW

    Turn off the lights when you leave.

  • genius13

    Yea I agree…I really can’t imagine a scenario in which Candice, Kree, and Angie aren’t the final 3..with Burnell in 4th or 5th

  • imbored3250

    Um no? Lol. There are never more than two or three contestants that are real contenders from day one.

    11: Jessica/Phillip
    10: Scotty/Lauren
    9: Crystal/Siobhan
    8: Adam/Danny
    7: Archuleta/Brooke/Cook
    6: Jordin/Melinda
    5: Taylor
    4: Carrie/Bo
    3: Fantasia

    Didn’t watch one and two.

  • Livi2

    The other “polarizing” contestants who’ve left in 7th-9th did so in seasons with at least 12 finalists, and in some cases, after multiple weeks of semifinal performances as well. That means most of them had survived at least half a dozen voting rounds before their eliminations, and some of them more like eight or nine rounds. This week will only be Lazaro’s fifth live performance (counting the non-voting top 40 rounds). If all those repeated bad performances are important to eroding the fan base of a contestant who isn’t delivering — basically, in wearing down the hope we have that someone we really like (due to backstory, looks, personality, whatever) will eventually pull it together — then Lazaro’s fans might hang in there a few more weeks yet…

  • Incipit

    Does ANYONE think that a contestant other than Candice, Kree, or Angie could win?

    I don’t. I also think TPTB have been telegraphing that line up since live voting started. I would prefer Kree, Candice, Amber, because I have issues with Angie’s choices, but TPTB want those three, so that’s who we’ll get , in some order or other. And I won’t care either way.Maybe I’ll enjoy a song or two on the way to the Finale…that would be nice. Not a straight up snooze. But I don’t expect to be surprised, amazed, or blown away by anything any of them are permitted to do. My curiosity at this point is reserved for what Iovine will do with the Winner and the Coronary…that’s about it. Is it May yet?

  • Livi2

    In season 11, a lot of people took Colton seriously as a potential winner. (Brian Mansfield at USA Today wrote at least a couple articles during the season predicting Colton’s win based on demographics and later strategy…one right before he was eliminated. :-)) A fair number of people were calling it for Pia in season 10 before her elimination too. (I also heard a lot number of predictions for Paul/Casey going into the finals, simply because they fit the HAC guy-with-guitar mold of the previous three winners…but those faded out a couple weeks in, when Paul kept having serious train-wreck performances and then Casey almost got eliminated.) Season 5, a fair number of people thought Kat or Chris Daughtry could win it, and in season 6, LaKisha was seen as a viable contender for at least a while. And in seasons 8 and 9, your lists of “real contenders” don’t even include the winners. :-)

  • tigervixxxen

    Maybe Janelle but only because of the country vote. However I don’t think she is good or popular enough for that. Janelle would be a huge upset but not saying its completely impossible. The other 5 have zero shot.

  • Face

    I agree… looking at history of someone like Scott from S8, who is probably the most comparable to Lazaro… lots of airtime due to sympathetic backstory, not a very good singer… considered likeable by many viewers… it took 6 voting weeks of mediocre to before all of this was eroded for Scott…

    so i’d say its another 2 weeks before Lazaro is gone… esp if he pulls himself together a bit more this week… I think he may literally be the last man standing…

  • tigervixxxen

    I pretty much agree with the whole list and commentary here. I think final two will be Angie and Candice. Kree is good but she feels like a 4th/3rd to me. I don’t think she’s different enough and her personality is a bit quieter. Neither of the big 3 are in danger any time soon and could survive a boring or bad song choice at this point. Candice needs to keep showing her versatility like she did last week. If she goes back to the Whitney catalog for too long it could hurt. Angie needs to start rearranging or picking artistic song choices, performing at the piano (but not every week). If she picks up the interest of even a fraction of the wgwg voters the crown is hers. As far as who could go, I agree Devin or Lazaro I’d say Amber but she’ll probably have a good song this week, so one more week of safety from her.

    The judges have to use the save and if the big 3 keep turning in good voting numbers then I think around top 6/7 the judges will save someone like Amber, Burnell, or Janelle.

  • Goodvibes27

    Sob stories never carry a finalist very far. I believe Lazaro will go this week, or next week at the latest. He does have the VFTW contingent, but any power they wield fades around this time also. This is where the rubber meets the road.

    I have been all about Kree but the past few weeks, Jimmy seems to be casting doubt on her stage voice, eroding some of her confidence. P.S.- Shut up, Jimmy.

  • Face

    I never watched S5, but was Taylor always a real contender for the prize?
    I always got the impression that he was one of those, that he was quite a polarising contestant (with as many ‘haters’ as ‘lovers’)… and not really what you’d consider a sanctioned TPTB choice… initially at least

  • LeahKittyS

    I’m not sure whether it’s because of an even playing field or less interest in this season, but I can’t bring myself to post prediction ranking charts like I did last year. Based on how everything’s gone down so far, all I can say is this:
    I agree with what Nicki said in an interview yesterday that Angie, Candice, and Kree are the frontrunners. There is a wall situation with those women that even Amber and Janelle must struggle to penetrate. Last year I was constantly making predictions as to who would finish when, but this time around I can only make two predictions.
    With regards to the Chosen Three:
    1. One of them will be a shock elimination.
    2. The other two will be in the finale.
    I predict these because there was also a wall situation last year with Colton, Jessica, and Phillip. Colton was the shock boot, and the other two became the Final 2.
    Thoughts?

  • Face

    I can still see events conspiring to have at least 1 or 2 of the perceived top 3 women being voted out earlier than expected…
    unless I am wrong (and I am sure you’ll all let me know if I am )… it’s uncharted territory for AI to have 3 big voiced girls considered the front runners and all still be in at this stage… apart from S3 and we know what happened there…

  • Face

    and if they do that… I imagine the following week someone they preferred more (i.e. Angie/Kree/Candice) then ends up going…

  • http://twitter.com/CanadianLady2 CanadianLady

    I think part of the confusion or lack thereof is the fact that they gave the exact ranking the first week. It kind of took the fun/guesing out of it – not having a clue who was getting votes, etc.

  • imbored3250

    - Kris and Lee weren’t contenders from day one, literally no one knew who they were. Adam, Danny, and Crystal were praised to the heavens.
    – Colton was too ~extreme~ for the Idol viewers.
    – Season 10 was all Lauren and Scotty. No one stood a chance against the country twins.
    – I’ll give you Daughtry, but Kat? Eh.

  • Incipit

    tigervixxxen, I think Janelle has a sweet voice, although there’s not much oomph there – but Kree can cover the country genre, if she wants to – and she has a stronger stage presence. I know Candice is a major contender – but because the show didn’t want her in the competition and cut her last year, now there’s the label of ‘returnee’ to deal with, and also the marketability question. If she’s not Adele, where can a Label fit her? I think Kree is more marketable, by a hair, because so far, she can fit where ever Iovine needs her to. Angela is aiming for CCM, not winning this show, IMO. That lovely voice of hers has yet to connect on a real-world level with anything she has sung – it’s all layered over with drama…and I don’t like that. Amber has an effortless ability to make her voice soar, but her choices haven’t been exciting either – and as a Not Show Favorite, they would need to be. But I would rather see her in third than Angela, because her delivery is much less studied, and I like her voice better. But marketing arises again – what do you do with a big Diva Voice in 2013? So I don’t see her past third, because Candice plays her game better… I think Kree has the most flexibility for the market, so I think Idol will want her to win. That’s just a pragmatic take on their chances as of Top 9 – TPTB can still do a lot of tricksy things to change the odds, if they want to. (and arrange the order of the finish to make Interscope the most money on the winning hamster.) The guys don’t even count, except as a mid card to race through, JMO.

  • Livi2

    You say “If she goes back to the Whitney catalog” — has Candice done anything from the Whitney catalog this season, or are you thinking of Amber? I only started watching at Hollywood week, but since then I remember Alicia Keys, Aretha Franklin, John Legend, Mary J. Blige, and the Ben E. King song from “former Idols” week — lots of good raw soul, no Whitney.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=34307244 Shana Collier

    Thats what made Seasons 8 & 9 so exciting. Kris and Lee came out of nowhere and won it! I just do NOT see that happening with this years group. I hope I’m wrong though

  • HKfan

    But at least thats 3 people…everyone knew at top 12 that p2 and Scotty would win their years……..so surely having 3 vying for the top is a bit more exciting!!

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=34307244 Shana Collier

    As a fan of James Durbin and Josh Ledet I disagree :)

  • perfectstorm

    Lazaro should have been in the Bottom 3 the last 2 weeks and if he does not land in the Bottom 3 this week, expect him to hang around. He has the fan base support. All the polarizing contestants mentioned above had been in the bottom prior to their elimination.

  • Livi2

    See, I think one of the good things about some past seasons was that possibility of dark horses who didn’t have a lot of initial hype — going into the finals knowing who some of the stronger and weaker contestants were, but also with some people from whom you didn’t know what to expect. (I remember Cook this way too, kind of — he wasn’t so much a sure shot early on as somebody you had to watch just because you couldn’t rule him out…) It’s not the same as the buzz that comes from having all the hype, but they’re “contenders” in the sense that you can’t rule them out, and it gives those seasons an element of uncertainty that this one is missing. Here, we’ve got just the chosen ones, and others whose limitations have already been made painfully obvious.

    As for the others I named, you may have realized they didn’t have a chance (and obviously you were right!), but plenty of other people were taking them seriously. So even if past seasons were totally predictable to people who really knew the game inside-out, this is the first time I’ve heard pretty much *everyone* agreeing on how it’s going to go. If you can keep the less-clued 90% of your audience guessing, that’s enough to sustain plenty of excitement, but it’s not happening this time around…

  • Hazehel

    Another thing working against Candice is that no “returnee” has ever made the finale, let alone won the entire competition. She would be breaking ground just by making the finale, let alone winning.

    Huh? Jessica Sanchez auditioned in Season 10.

  • Miz

    Your ranking looks good. Unfortunately, I will not be surprised to see Lazaro make it to top 5.

  • fuzzywuzzy

    I agree. Lazaro should be ranked last, but I’ll bet that he lasts a lot longer.

  • tigervixxxen

    Lee actually had the best odds of any male (as evidenced by betting sites) in S9 coming into the finals.

  • tigervixxxen

    Amber will struggle to make top 5, she’ll probably have to be saved to get that far. She is one of the least popular contestants. Depends if Kree is truly seen as country, if so she has a stronger chance and weakens Janelle. Kree would probably benefit having Janelle go. I do not think Janelle will win but my point was more the whims of country voting block are most unpredictable but strong, it’s probably the biggest wild card variable out there. I think people are underestimating Angie right now. She is extremely popular and if she has a “moment” will be very difficult to beat.

  • tigervixxxen

    I didn’t literally mean Whitney, I more meant the diva ballad catalog.

  • tigervixxxen

    Yep that’s the risk. They’ll be at catch 22 not wanting to drag the save out but it takes away their safety net.

  • tigervixxxen

    Yes I completely agree. I think Kree will be the shock. The longer Janelle is there she takes away the country vote and I just see Angie and Candice as having more dynamic stand out personalities, style and song choices. And I think the last guy standing will continue to siphon votes as well.

  • mchcat

    I really don’t care – don’t care for any of them – leaving idol until Scotty performs – then I will be back for that one show.

  • LeahKittyS

    No, she couldn’t have. She was too young. She was 15 when she auditioned for Season 11 and 16 when she competed on the live shows. DeAndre, Colton, Hollie and Joshua were all from Season 10 Hollywood/Las Vegas, though.

  • Hazehel

    I distinctly remember discussing here whether she or Thia Megia should be go further. Season 10 was the first time I heard of her, it was posted in the spoiler thread that she got to the Hollywood round, however I don’t think she was ever shown.

  • LeahKittyS

    I think you’re thinking of Melinda Ademi, who had a big audition story in Season 10 and came back for this season. Jessica would have been 14 at the time of the Season 10 Hollywood/Las Vegas round, and that’s too young. You had to be 15 for producer auditions.

  • Hazehel

    No, it’s Jessica Sanchez, I don’t even remember Melinda. Jessica just turned 15 in August 2010 (she is only just over 6 months younger than Thia), so presumably she was old enough to audition.

  • LeahKittyS

    I remember when Thia was the last girl put in at the Green Mile, that a girl named Jessica was sent home, but that was a grown woman who gave the camera the finger as she walked out. Her name could also have been Jessica Sanchez, as she did look Hispanic, but it’s not the Jessica who went on to the finals last year.

  • http://twitter.com/HighTensions Jake W.

    I think Devin is 99 percent toast this week. I don’t see the save being used on him either. I still think we will be stuck with Lazaro for at least one more week. After that, I feel he will definitely be eliminated.

  • Hazehel

    Like I said, I don’t think she was shown in Season 10. I don’t even remember who the other Jessica is supposed to be. Someone posted videos of hers before Season 10 started because the spoilers said she reached the Hollywood round, and that’s when I first heard of her. It’s the only reason why I was familiar with her by Season 11.

  • LeahKittyS

    How about this: The Idol Pad, when it releases the names of the semi-finalists every year, specifies which ones are repeat contestants and what season they were formerly on. Jessica was not listed as a repeat. Here’s the link:

    http://theidolpad.blogspot.com/p/ai11-contestant-listing.html

  • http://twitter.com/CanadianLady2 CanadianLady

    I guess I wasn’t everyone. I had no idea who would win. :)

  • http://twitter.com/CanadianLady2 CanadianLady

    Count me as one of the clueless 90%. I knew who I liked, but I never assumed everyone else liked the same people.

  • CB40

    I think Devin goes home no matter what this week.

  • Hazehel

    How is that proof of anything? Spoiler sites aren’t official site, like MJ’s or anything other places.

    The fact is that Jessica was old enough to audition for Season 10, and I knew of her because of spoilers posted here. Whether the spoiler was mistaken or not is irrelevant, I clearly remember it, please don’t keeping me what I could have misremembered, because what I remember of Jessica Sanchez was quite clear.

  • http://twitter.com/Lutrell4 Ira

    1. Candice, not only for her performances, but she’s learning to play the game, as reflected in her social media presence. Largely due to the fact that she makes a point to interact with her fans online. She has been consistently gaining followers on Twitter, averaging 1,800 per day since becoming a finalist on “Idol” in late February, and the launching of two FB pages.

    2-5 are interchangeable at this time….Need a breakout this week.

    6.Do not sleep on Lazaro. He has a very rabid fan base of Latin moms that want to mother him,and cougars that want to be his “mommy”. Not to mention the teen-aged girls. Seriously,he has the appeal of Menundo’s , Xavier Serbia. I have been told that when he is on his game, his ballads rival those of André Sardet.a Portuguese singer.

    Going home, Devlin.

  • http://twitter.com/THEROCPRINCE Cory Patrick

    Devin doesn’t have a strong fan-base, but he is the best Male vocalist in the competition. It sucks that more people don’t like him, because his voice should carry him further.

  • http://twitter.com/THEROCPRINCE Cory Patrick

    Jessica also said she had a crush on Deandre the previous season. I don’t know where I heard that, but I’m 100% sure I heard it. Maybe a live stream of hers?

  • http://www.facebook.com/jenny.williams.391 Jenny Williams

    Jessica first auditioned in Season 11. lmao.

  • LeahKittyS

    Thank you, Jenny. Now can we end this?

  • LeahKittyS

    I know, right? A lot of people get bored by the adult contemporary thing, but I find it refreshing. Josh Groban and Michael Buble are two of my favorite artists (and as serious as their music can be, they are some of the biggest goofballs onstage). If Devin makes it far enough, he should get a chance to put out that kind of record.

  • Livi2

    Oh, me too, definitely. I read enough blog discussions to have some idea who some other people are rooting for, and I can recognize when the producers are really pushing somebody, but in the last couple seasons, we’ve gone into the finals with probably half a dozen people I could imagine making it to the finale. Maybe some of that’s wishful thinking…it’s been a few years since any of my favorites actually made it that far. :-)

  • HKfan

    I don’t remember anyone on here thinking James would win, although most thought he would get top 3.

  • justmefornow

    Not that it matters really, but she was there in Season 10 but didn’t make Hollywood round….

    http://mjsbigblog.staging.wpengine.com/american-idol-10-spoilers-the-attack-of-the-15-year-olds.htm

  • justmefornow

    Yeah, even being my favorite, I too knew he wouldn’t win. He wasn’t the safe enough, boy-next-door WGWG type.
    And his music style was too heavy as well.

  • http://twitter.com/dam744 Damien Roberts

    I generally think two or three is the magic number of legitimate contenders. I think around this time in their respective seasons it was pretty clear who the favorites were (Kelly/Justin/Tamyra, Ruben/Clay/Kimberley, season 3 was probably one of the closest seasons amongst the four finalists Fantasia/Diana/Jasmine/LaToya, Carrie/Bo/Vonzell, season five was another season with an equal pool, Jordin/Melinda/Blake, David C./David A., Adam/Kris/Danny/Allison, Lee/Crystal, Scotty/Lauren, Phillip/Jessica/Joshua). I think if you look at most of the seasons there is a pretty strict number of 3 or 4 singers who clearly outshine the rest at this point.

  • http://twitter.com/dam744 Damien Roberts

    I think (THINK) they are all different enough that it could happen. And I think they’re setting Amber up to be that “earlier than expected” boot. I guess one of the ladies could end up in fourth, but I think once you’re down to four contestants shocking boots don’t necessarily exist any more.

  • http://twitter.com/dam744 Damien Roberts

    I think you’re confusing your opinion with public opinion, which is essentially what this is all about. Taylor for instance sailed into the finale during his season while people perceived to be contenders (Elliott, Chris, and Paris) all came up short.

  • http://twitter.com/dam744 Damien Roberts

    He obviously was, that said, I think he sailed through on consistency more so than being a huge talent.

  • http://twitter.com/dam744 Damien Roberts

    Season 9 was such a snoozer. Horrible contestants.

  • Goodvibes27

    I remember Simon Cowell was asked by Jay Leno pretty early on in the season who he thought would win, and he answered either Chris or Taylor.Taylor was already a (struggling) professional musician and more musically savvy than the rest of the pack.

  • http://twitter.com/KariannHart Kariann Hart

    The best thing to happen to Idol would be if they don’t use The Save!

  • http://twitter.com/KariannHart Kariann Hart

    I wasn’t guessing them to win either.

  • mjsbigblog

    Reminder:

    Please keep the comments On Topic, which is American Idol season 12. Not your favorite Idol season or special snowflake.

  • http://twitter.com/krbcan KRB TWIT BITES

    Burnell could still win as the last boy standing — the voters traditionally choose a male winner, and you can’t under-estimate those demographics, even with very strong girls.

  • girlygirl

    Brooke? I liked Brooke, but I don’t think she was ever considered a real frontrunner. You left off Kat and Daughtry, both of whom were huge frontrunners in S5. And I don’t know if Siobhan was really a real contender in S9…she came off as a little polarizing to me. it was pretty much Crystal vs. Lee that whole season.

  • http://twitter.com/ronnydias Ronny Dias

    And yet, all the performances people still talk about from Season 10 are Haley’s.
    She was the star of said Season, IMO.

  • girlygirl

    Unless people are into the Buble/Groban thing, I don’t know if Devin is going to appeal to people. He does have a very good voice, but I’m not all that interested in adult contemporary style music, so he doesn’t interest me. I think he really needs to sing something much younger feeling if he wants to stick around.

  • girlygirl

    can’t they “mother” him or whatever without voting for him? I’m sorry, he seems like a nice guy, he’s obviously cute, and I appreciate that he’s had a rough time because of his stutter. But he keeps giving poor performances and, based simply on that, doesn’t deserve to stay on the show ahead of contestants who actually are giving good performances. It also really isn’t doing him any favors, because why should he even try to improve if he is just going to sail though on sympathy votes?

    IF he can step up his game and give strong performances, then I have no problem with him staying on the show. But right now, he is clearly the worst of the remaining contestants.

  • Livi2

    So…it’s kosher for one person to enumerate all of their opinions as to which contestants were “contenders” in every past season, but not for other people to reply and disagree with that enumeration? (And yes, we were still talking about S12 — the whole question was whether the field this season was narrower than in the past. As it happens, none of my personal snowflakes in the last several years make any list of contestants I’d try to claim as legitimate front-runners, anyway. I seem to have a real taste for lost causes, as evidenced by the fact that my favorite singer this year is the only woman to have made a bottom-3 appearance so far.) Inconsistent enforcement aside, if season-to-season comparisons are too far afield to discuss here, then there’s not much left to say — the ratings show well enough that this season isn’t generating much excitement independent of viewers’ loyalty to the franchise as a whole.

  • http://www.facebook.com/marimarpr Marimar Rios

    I hate to admit it but I agree that it might be Devin the one going home this week. It sucks because I think he’s the best male vocalist this season and the only contestants I think are better than him are Candice, Kree and Angie. If things were fair he’d be a lock up for Top 5. It just seems like he hasn’t picked up a good fan base.

    I’ve been wanting for a girl to win for many seasons but I didn’t want it to be this way where there is basically no competition for the girls. I think that in a way the girl that ends up winning this season will always be seen as the one girl that had the win handed to her.

    A girl winning this season won’t prove that America has moved on from voting for the WGWG. It will simply prove that the producers of the show had to refrain from letting WGWGs advance and had to stack the semifinals with average to mediocre guys in order to produce a female winner.

  • mjsbigblog

    No. You can’t fall down the rabbit hole of past seasons in a thread that is about the current season.. The discussion was becoming wildly off topic, and I know because I’ve been moderating these threads for years now.

    If you aren’t interested in Season 12, then this is not the thread for you.

    Having said that, if you have questions about my moderating, take it to email.

  • http://www.facebook.com/marimarpr Marimar Rios

    I think Candice will definitely be in the finals but I think Kree might come from behind and end up winning. We might not have the WGWG effect this year but I think we will still see the underdog effect. Between Candice and Kree, Kree would clearly be the underdog. Moreover, have we ever had an Idol who had auditioned to a previous season of the show?

  • http://www.facebook.com/marimarpr Marimar Rios

    Jessica didn’t auditioned in Season 10. That was a misunderstanding that was eventually explained. People initially thought that Thia, another youtube with a huge fanbase, was Jessica.

  • springboard2

    I generally agree with this list, but I would rank Lazarro higher because he seems to have a large fanbase, and since the interest for the season is overall low, I am assuming that fans votes overwhelm casual votes that usually go to the best singers.

    I can imagine further outcry because of his ongoing presence on the show, and the meltdown if a girl goes before him!

  • http://www.facebook.com/marimarpr Marimar Rios

    She was added to all spoilers during Season 10 but I know for fact she didn’t actually audition. I have been following Jessica on Youtube for years and I remember that the weekend they were claiming she had auditioned she was playing a gig in LA and later on uploaded on youtube the video for the performance.

    After reading conflicting reports about the situation I actually asked her mom on youtube about it and she told me that Jessica had not auditioned. Also, during this time Jessica was still under contract with management company and independent record label called Spin Move Records. She eventually got a release from this contract but only after Season 10 had already taken place.

  • http://www.facebook.com/marimarpr Marimar Rios

    Maybe its me but I have never seen Angie as a “big voiced girl”. She does her thing and is really good but I don’t see her as good of a vocalist as Candice or even Kree.

  • Livi2

    I’m not even sure what has or hasn’t been deleted anymore — when I loaded the page to view this reply, a completely different smattering of comments from that discussion were visible than when I looked last time. So it may be that my frustration over apparent inconsistency is in fact a product of something weird Disqus is doing, and not of how the moderation policy was applied. I do respect the need to keep order, but I got crabby in reaction to the appearance that my posts had been judged exceptionally snowflakey while a bunch of similar content remained. If that was a misperception due to a technical glitch or whatever, I am very sorry for jumping down your throat.

    As to the other part, I am interested in S12, I just think most of what’s interesting right now about the way the competition is playing out only really makes sense in relation to past seasons (like, the producers’ apparent choice to kill any suspense about the outcome in order to present a tight set of “obvious” female front-runners in a so-far-not-apparently-successful bid to win back fans who got turned off by the WGWG streak). And on the music side of things, I’m completely smitten with Amber, though not with her song choices (two Whitney songs in one week, WTF), and I’m frustrated to be going into the second season in a row where the contestant whose voice I love is well on the way to burying herself with her own mistakes (as opposed to — as in seasons just prior — falling prey to nothing more than America’s inexplicable failure to share my personal tastes, darn it). But there again I’m smack in the midst of another comparison, this time most definitely involving past snowflakes, so obviously I really don’t know how to think about a single season of this show in isolation anymore. Sorry. :-)

  • mjsbigblog

    Again…if you have a problem with my moderating, please don’t pull the conversation off topic with complaints. Take it to email.

  • Axxxel

    I haven’t heard Amber in the previous rounds but after I heard her sing “She’s leaving home”… she got my attention…Pity not everybody likes her subdued version of the song including the above review that is heading this thread… Pity I don’t live in the USA so I cannot powervote for her…Because of “She’s leaving home” , I start to like her a lot and I hope she can be a dark horse and break up the Candice-Kree-Angela stronghold. As we have seen in season’s past… no one can hold it up every week, front runners can make mistakes or have a bad day.. dark horses can appear to the surface… and I hope that Amber will be such a dark horse… Fingers crossed.

  • Axxxel

    Yeah, Candice-Kree -Angela… they can all win or lose… but I don’t think Candice will win…I think Kree and Angie have more room for improvement and if they show that improvement… people will vote more for them.

  • http://twitter.com/noanaaman Noa Na’aman

    that was Melinda from this season, not Jessica.

  • justmefornow

    I don’t follow her and was only linking to the old spoiler thread they were discussing. I really don’t care one way or another.
    Good luck to her.

  • http://twitter.com/krbcan KRB TWIT BITES

    I hope not — I think Lazaro will wind up with a good portion of Devin’s support base — meaning he will just last even further into the competition.

  • Face

    i agree that Amber is being set up by TPTB as the sacrificial lamb… to protect the other 3 (Angie, Candice & Kree)…
    so i don’t think her going in the next couple of weeks would be anywhere near as big as shock as one of Angie/Kree/Candice going out early… and the way this season is being set-up by TPTB… early for any of them would be before top 3 or 4…
    and i think if one of those 3 girls went and there were still males left… even at top 4 night… it would be considered a shock… esp the way they stacked the deck…

  • Face

    i understand what you are saying and agree that going into the to p10/12 TPTB have their ideal top 3 or 4 in mind…
    but using S8 as an example, i think there is a big difference in terms of who performed well and therefore probably deserved to be top 4 (the 4 you mentioned), and who the TPTB initially wanted in their top 4…
    it always seemed very clear to me… through amount of pre semi airtime, backstories, pimpage at semis that TPTB wanted a Danny, Adam, Lil & Alexis top 4… in fact in interviews around semis / top 13 time all the judges and Ryan used these 4 names continuously as the 4 to beat/look out for…

    Alison and Kris were fodder that TPTB never expected to last till anywhere near top 4…

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1638805698 Jason Scott

    They still have a save to use…and they’ll NEVER use it on a guy. So, my guess is that Amber is voted out this week…and they save her.

  • perfectstorm

    The Kree/Candice/AngieTop 3 sounds too good to last. Just like it didn’t for Fantasia/Latoya London/JHud. There will be a Colton/Pia type shock boot. They need to save the Save for someone who has a chance of winning.

  • justshootme

    Does ANYONE think that a contestant other than Candice, Kree, or Angie could win?

    I sure don’t. I really doubt anyone else will even break top 3. This feels like a season of Survivor where one tribe goes into the merge with the numbers, and it takes weeks of watching the others picked off one by one. Yeah, you may not know the exact order, but the outcome is a given. It’s painful to watch and makes for very dull TV. It doesn’t help that I don’t find this top 3 very compelling. At all.

    The Voice >>>>infinite>>> AI right now.

  • Mateja Praznik

    Kris was definitely fodder. Bland and forgettable, I don’t think this way what they hoped the winner would be. Allison had her inexperience against her. The semifinals that year were so badly planned with too many contestants.

  • http://twitter.com/CanadianLady2 CanadianLady

    I’d rank Lazaro higher. A really good performance from him tonight could mean a lot. And based on past years, I’d worry about Candice, although I think she totally deserves to win.

    There have been major surprises in past seasons, so why not this season? One big performance that connects to people can mean a lot – e.g. see Allen, Kris.

  • http://twitter.com/Sassycatz Sassycatz

    Well, I like Amber and since I live in the U.S., I took the time to vote for her. Even better, I bought her performance of “She’s Leaving Home,” from Itunes and it’s the only thing I’ve bought this season thus far. In fact, in the past couple of seasons, I’ve bought only a few performances, so I think that’s saying something about how much I liked it…. Combo of her performance, her voice, and her interpretation of a very lovely Beatles song.

  • http://twitter.com/CubraLibra Kristina Ann

    Honestly, I don’t see Candice faltering. I thought she would have during Beatles week, but there is something about her. She knows the perfect songs to pick and works it in her favor.

    I feel like if anyone could break the three big contenders, it’s probably Burnell. I think it will be Candice/Burnell/Kree/Angie for final 4.

  • dd999

    For me, the two contestants that have the most interesting and new sound to todays music are Kree and Burnell. Love the tone in their voices when they sing. Candice, Angie, Amber, Janelle I recognize as beautiful singers but I don’t find their voices unique in any way. Song choices are so important and I think especially so for Devon and Lazaro this week.

  • dabney c

    I share your smitten-ness with Amber, and also lament her song choices. However, I thought her Beatles choice was quite fantastic. She put a lot of herself into that performance – more so than in previous weeks – which is why I was so bummed when she landed in the bottom 3. I was hoping she’d turn out to be the dark horse this season, but being in the bottom so early on does not bode well for dark-horsedom, or even for having the judges’ save used on her. Motown week is a natural fit for her talent, so I HOPE she chooses something familiar but not done-to-death-on-Idol.

  • MyDailyComment

    “It was like listening to death slowly approaching.”

    BOO! I’m death! I’m right behind you!

  • MyDailyComment

    Candice Glover is the only one who sings a song till its dead, then brings it back to life and kills it again!!

  • MyDailyComment

    If any one other than Candice wins the show should be cancelled!!!!

  • MyDailyComment

    Everyone else can just go home!!

  • MyDailyComment

    Candice just seems like the winner to me.

  • MyDailyComment

    With your analysis, you may have left out one thing. Do they want another black person to win? They will probably sell less than a non black winner. Even though Candice is the best singer, if she goes R&B, R&B does not sell as much as pop. Hip hop like beyonce sells but not R&B. So that is a reason Candice may not will, but she still should.

  • MyDailyComment

    I agree on the sacrificial lamb but am saddened by it. But just want to say that the contestant can always just be GOOD, and you can’t get set up. Just be GOOD, and you can still win.

  • MyDailyComment

    There is variety, and lots of people don’t like good strong singing. They settle for way less of a quality of voice.!!

  • MyDailyComment

    I didn’t not think a non singing person would win. EVER. I thought people would vote for better singers.

  • MyDailyComment

    I agree on improvement. You can’t get better than already being the best in the competition. So I hope that won’tt hold her back.

  • MyDailyComment

    Tamyra was not in the top 3!

  • MyDailyComment

    I never thought Kris would win, but his being bland was what helped it. Adam had those pictures where he was doing outrageous things and people wanted a safe family friendly winner to vote for.

  • MyDailyComment

    He looks like erkel with those glasses, so no he will not win! That is why they picked him.

  • MyDailyComment

    Candice leaving???? There would be no point to the show after she was gone.

  • MyDailyComment

    She sings everything like a Diva, because she is and she can. Its not a bad thing.

  • MyDailyComment

    Burnell would have to do something outstanding, and he already sang I’m Here already.

  • MyDailyComment

    You make it sound set up and pre-arranged

  • http://twitter.com/dam744 Damien Roberts

    Yeah, there is a significant possibility that someone like Burnell could sneak in the top 3 and cut one of the frontrunner girls, but I think that Amber’s set-up will end up being a catalyst to ensure Kree, Angie, and Candice are our final 3 contestants.

  • http://twitter.com/dam744 Damien Roberts

    Above I’m not really going by TPTB because I feel like every year there is a contestant that they overly pimped that fell short of expectations; season 4 found it in Constantine, season 5 found it in Ace and in Kellie, season 6 found that in Lakisha, season 7 in Brooke White, season 8 in Lil and Danny, season 9 in Katie Stevens, season 10 in Casey Abrams and Pia etc. But I think every season by this time there is a good idea of who the top 4 or five are gonna be based simply on performances, albeit you will have awesome story-arcs like Haley Reinhart or Kris and Allison.

  • Axxxel

    *thumbs up* !!!!! You walk the talk !! Go for it Amber !! You have fans !!