HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Sep 12-18

With 54.02% of the market reporting in, Lady Antebellum looks set to cruise to an easy number 1. They are predicted to sell 320-340K copies of “Own This Night” this week. Adele has no intention of leaving the top 3 for a while. She’s had 29 non-consecutive weeks in the top 3 with “21”. She moves past Hootie and the Blowfish (at 28 weeks) and has her eyes focused on top 3 champ Alanis Morissette (46 weeks for “Jagged Little Pill”). I always find it interesting how hard it is to repeat success. It’s not as easy as some people make it look.

Lil Wayne (who seems to have figured out the formula for repeat success) is 3rd with “Tha Carter IV”, George Strait (who has been successful for eons) is “Here for a Good Time at 4th”, Staind is debuting in 5th, Now 39 is hanging around for 6th, Jason Aldean (with the help from a duet featuring Kelly Clarkson) is partying at 7th, Luke Bryan is tanning himself at 8th, the Red Hot Chili Peppers are keeping it spicy at 9th and JayZ/Kayne are stuck watching the throne at 10th.

The only other Idol currently in the top 50 is Carrie’s duet with Brad Paisley on his 30th placed album, “This is Country Music”. As it is likely Walmart has reported in and last week Scotty sold enough in that sector of Walmart to make 21st on the Monday report, I think it’s fair to guess his sales of his EP have collapsed. Last week, they saw a 41% downturn. It’s a bit unusual to see an album that has been selling so steadily suddenly drop out like that and it would be interesting to know the reason why. If Interscope has simply stopped shipping the EP and Walmart is selling out its dwindling stock, no worries. If it is because ILYTB has lost spins, that might not be so great for his album’s first week numbers and increases the importance of getting airplay for his second single. Time will tell [And USA Today already did tell. Thanks hoa_teca!

Update: I [Brian] spoke with someone from Universal who reminded me that the EPs were limited editions designed to sell through before the Idol acts released their full albums. “The objective was to have virtually no inventory on these EPs by the time we released their debut albums, ” I was told. “The decay we saw this week, and will see in the weeks to follow, was natural and expected based on limited inventory in the U.S. Walmart locations.” So if you were thinking about getting one of these EPs, better get it now, because they’re not going to get any easier to find.]

Jackie Evancho continues to chug along with sales and is currently in 19th. Judges from The Voice continue to enjoy places on the chart (17th (Blake) and 42nd (Maroon 5/Adam)) based on the success of their singles. I’ve also included Kristin Chenoweth’s debut numbers for her Country album. She was featured frequently on Glee and one of her first big numbers was Carrie’s “Last Name” which may have given her the idea to try her luck as a Country artist. As her numbers show, it is not as easy to make it in the Country world as is often rumoured. Kristin is amazing on Broadway, but the country singles she has released have been somewhat horrific (and not well received by the format).

CHART DATE: 09/19/2011
LAST UPDATE: 09/19/2011 10:42:49
NOW IN: 54.02%

LW TW artist / album label power index
— 1 LADY ANTEBELLUM OWN THE NIGHT 215, 001
2 2 ADELE 21 104, 835
1 3 LIL WAYNE THA CARTER IV 51, 158
3 4 GEORGE STRAIT HERE FOR A GOOD TIME 32, 065
— 5 STAIND STAIND 18, 880
8 6 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 39 VARIOUS ARTISTS 18, 412
10 7 JASON ALDEAN MY KINDA PARTY 18, 383
13 8 LUKE BRYAN TAILGATES & TANLINES 16, 183
5 9 RED HOT CHILI PEPPERS I’M WITH YOU 14, 228
6 10 JAY Z & KANYE WEST WATCH THE THRONE 13, 665

29 17 BLAKE SHELTON RED RIVER BLUE 9, 625

36 19 JACKIE EVANCHO DREAM WITH ME 8, 119

30 30 BRAD PAISLEY THIS IS COUNTRY MUSIC 6, 573

7 42 MAROON 5 HANDS ALL OVER 4, 181

— 47 KRISTIN CHENOWETH SOME LESSONS LEARNED 3, 373

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Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.