HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Oct 10-16

With 54.02% of the market reporting in, we have two Idols in the top 5. That doesn’t happen very often and if it ever happened with two Idol debut albums, I’d like to know about it. Helping to revive the franchise, Scotty and Lauren are sitting at the 3rd and 4th positions while predictions suggest that they will remain in the top 5 when all the numbers are tallied up.

Lauren Alaina is set to have the second highest debut of all albums this week and the highest debut of Country albums (including her duet partner at the CMA Music Fest (Martina) and her erstwhile prom date (Hunter Hayes)). She is currently clocking in at 41, 350 in sales with a predicted total of between 60-65K. I seem to recall reading that this will give her the highest debut week of a female country artist this year.

Scotty is heading into his second week looking to have a relatively small 1st to 2nd week drop. HDD predicted last week that he would see a 50-55% drop and he seems to be on track with the numbers already reporting he’d only have a 61% drop from his total last week (with more albums surely to be reported). Scotty is currently sitting at 3rd.

Also, from Idol are a couple of duets. Carrie is featured on a duet with Tony Bennett on his album appropriately named, “Duets II”. Kelly and Jason duet on “Don’t You Wanna Stay” on his album which is currently at 11th.

The top debut and top of the chart is held by Evanescence. The long awaited album from this reformulated band is predicted to chart at the top when the final numbers are in. Always present in the top 4, Adele is in 2nd this week with her album 21. Five Finger Death Punch seem out for the count right now because they are a distant 4th, but they should do better on the second day of reporting if they are going to live up to their predictions in the 90-95K range. Lady A keeps chugging along in 6th while Lil Wayne loves staying in the top 10 and is currently 8th. J Cole who was the number one album two weeks ago, is in 10th.

The Voice judges are also making an appearance on the charts. Blake’s current album is 26th and he sings the title track on “Footloose” which is currently a few spots behind at 28th. Maroon V featuring Adam Levine is at 42nd.

CHART DATE: 10/17/2011
LAST UPDATE: 10/17/2011 18:59:36
NOW IN: 54.02%

LW TW artist / album label power index
— 1 EVANESCENCE EVANESCENCE 99, 787
2 2 ADELE 21 83, 971
1 3 SCOTTY MCCREERY CLEAR AS DAY 76, 505
— 4 LAUREN ALAINA WILDFLOWER 41, 350
— 5 FIVE FINGER DEATH PUNCH AMERICAN CAPITALIST 32, 605
4 6 LADY ANTEBELLUM OWN THE NIGHT 30, 039
— 7 MARTINA MCBRIDE ELEVEN 27, 069
6 8 LIL WAYNE THA CARTER IV 23, 407
3 9 TONY BENNETT DUETS II 22, 570
5 10 J COLE COLE WORLD: THE SIDELINE ST 14, 531
ORY
15 11 JASON ALDEAN MY KINDA PARTY 13, 845

37 26 BLAKE SHELTON RED RIVER BLUE 6, 998

– 28 FOOTLOOSE SOUNDTRACK 5, 978

— 36 HUNTER HAYES HUNTER HAYES 4, 856

33 42 MAROON 5 HANDS ALL OVER 4, 172

48 50 NIRVANA NEVERMIND 2, 487

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Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.