HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Dec 12-18

HDD gave us a Christmas treat by releasing Final numbers on Monday. It kind of makes me wonder how often they have the final numbers on Monday, but I’ll just appreciate the one day totals when we get them.

As expected, Michael Buble continues to dominate these pre-Christmas charts. Nobody else is even close. Traditionally, last week is the second biggest album sales week of the year. This week will be the biggest. Unquestionably, Michael will sail over 2M mark (he’s close to that this week) and the album will become the second biggest of the year, but will his sales be as impressive next week? Does everybody already have their Christmas album for the year?

Adele is currently in second, a place she frequently has. The women has already set so many records. She’s the first person to have the #1 song (“Rolling in the Deep”), album (“21”) and music video for the year (the year isn’t over, but nobody else is even remotely close). She has the most consecutive weeks in the top 5 (this week will make 40), the best selling digital album (1.7M), most copies sold in a calender year (5 M)…the lists go on and on. And she shows no sign of stopping. Some are wondering if this week, she will outsell her debut week, 10 months later. I am in awe of Adele.

Justin Beiber is in third and should be close to selling platinum of his Christmas album this week. Usually the big Christmas album sales go to the traditional pop voices like Buble, Groban and Boyle, but Bieber is showing a pop act can move those units too. In a year without Buble and Adele, we would have been talking about Justin’s impressive stats. This will be his fourth release to go at least platinum in the US since November of 2009.

Fourth goes to the Black Keys in their second week while Lady Antebellum sees the biggest uptick in sales (78%) to finish 5th. Andrea Bocelli with his live central park album is sitting at 6th as he did last week. Meanwhile, Nickelback and Drake swap spots making it an even 4 for Canadians in the top 10.

At 9th place, the idols start showing up. In his 11th week of sales, during the second biggest album sales week of the year, Scotty manages to make it into the top 10. He’ll be cruising close to 750K in sales and will likely top 800K before the year is out. Even though sales will plummet in January, platinum seems more than possible.

At 10th, we have Now 40 which features tracks by Kelly and Voice judges Adam and Christina. Adam’s Maroon 5 also appears at 47th. Kelly has two more appearances. She has a duet on Jason Aldean’s 18th place album and her own album appears 43rd. Daughtry’s album “Break the Spell” sold enough to finish 25th. Carrie has a high profile duet on Tony Bennett’s album that is one spot ahead.

The Got Talent franchise has 3 albums on the chart. Susan Boyle’s latest album is at 14th while her 2010 Christmas album is 37th. Jackie Evancho’s latest Christmas album is at 17th. Glee has their Christmas album at 13th and their latest album at 40th. The top debut of the week is Anthony Hamilton at 11th.

HART DATE: 12/19/2011
LAST UPDATE: 12/19/2011 15:07:43
NOW IN: FINAL

LW TW artist / album label power index % change
1 1 MICHAEL BUBLE CHRISTMAS 444,036 -6%
3 2 ADELE 21 274,963 +48%
4 3 JUSTIN BIEBER UNDER THE MISTLETOE 165,571 +5%
2 4 BLACK KEYS EL CAMINO 85,380 -58%
18 5 LADY ANTEBELLUM OWN THE NIGHT 80,737 +78%
6 6 ANDREA BOCELLI CONCERTO: LIVE IN CENTRAL PARK 79,494 +1%
8 7 NICKELBACK HERE AND NOW 79,002 +22%
7 8 DRAKE TAKE CARE 75,774 +5%
10 9 SCOTTY MCCREERY CLEAR AS DAY 66,846 +23%
13 10 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 40 VARIOUS ARTISTS 66,043 +32%
— 11 ANTHONY HAMILTON BACK TO LOVE 60,427 —

20 13 GLEE CAST GLEE CHRISTMAS, VOL. 2 56,432 +28%
21 14 SUSAN BOYLE SOMEONE TO WATCH OVER ME 52,731 +27%

11 17 JACKIE EVANCHO HEAVENLY CHRISTMAS 48,833 -8%
29 18 JASON ALDEAN MY KINDA PARTY 48,602 +42%

36 24 TONY BENNETT DUETS II 41,645 +36%
27 25 DAUGHTRY BREAK THE SPELL 38,922 +11%

30 37 SUSAN BOYLE THE GIFT 30,853 -9%

9 40 GLEE CAST GLEE: THE MUSIC, VOL. 7 28,781 -51%

48 43 KELLY CLARKSON STRONGER 27,541 +21%

— 47 MAROON 5 HANDS ALL OVER 25,967 —

17 50 KORN PATH OF TOTALITY 22,669 -50%


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Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.