The Meaningless Florida-Georgia Line Billboard Country Songs Record: Who Really Has The Biggest Country Hit? (ANALYSIS)

Billboard and the echo chamber that is much of the entertainment media/blogosphere made much hoopla yesterday over Florida-Georgia Line’s “Cruise” breaking the all-time record for weeks at #1 on the Hot Country Songs chart. With 22 weeks and counting atop the Billboard Hot Country Songs chart, “Cruise” surpassed the 21-week totals accumulated by Eddy Arnold’s “I’ll Hold You in My Heart (Till I Can Hold You in My Arms)” in 1947-1948, Hank Snow’s “I’m Moving On” in 1950, and Webb Pierce’s “In The Jailhouse Now” in 1955. Although Billboard acknowledges that this happened because of its new chart methodology (introduced in October 2012) incorporating airplay from all genres, paid digital download sales, and streaming into chart rankings for its genre-specific Songs charts, it has failed to acknowledge how much this new chart record misrepresents the real impact of “Cruise” compared to other big country hits.

Closer scrutiny of the charts shows that, contrary to the flashy press releases and hype you may see regarding Florida-Georgia Line’s “Cruise,” its “record-setting” week is the historical achievement that isn’t. As I will show below, Cruise” isn’t even the biggest country hit in the past 3 years, never mind all time. The fact that “Cruise” is now Billboard’s record holder is the direct result of the timing of a methodology change, and if the same methodology were in place 7 years ago, “Cruise” would now rank 3rd or 4th among country crossover hits. Not first, and not close to first.

Background
Let’s start by acknowledging the following: with 5.35 million in download sales and counting (41% and counting of that total from a remix of the song featuring rapper Nelly according to Wade Jessen of Billboard), plus major cross-format airplay that led to a #1 peak on the country airplay charts followed by top-10 peaks on the CHR/Pop and Adult Pop/HAC airplay charts, “Cruise” is an undeniably huge hit. Let’s also acknowledge Billboard’s well-intentioned desire to capture the changing environment for music consumption, which is what prompted last October’s move to carry the Hot 100 methodology over to genre-specific Songs charts.

But let’s also note the problems with the change. Foremost, the incorporation of airplay from other formats basically handed control of the top of Billboard’s genre-specific Songs charts over to programmers of the format that generates the largest audience impressions: CHR/Top 40. Because CHR/Top 40 programmers allot significantly more spins to their top songs than country programmers (more than twice as many in most cases), top 10 CHR/Top 40 hits generate larger audience impressions than top 10 country hits, and that’s before you consider the spillover from CHR/Top 40 playlists into Adult Top 40 (or Hot AC) and Adult Contemporary playlists. A look at the current Billboard airplay charts shows that the #10 song on the Billboard CHR/Top 40 chart (“Same Love” by Macklemore & Ryan Lewis featuring Mary Lambert) racked up higher audience impressions (49.558 million) than the current #1 song on the Billboard Country Airplay chart (“Runnin’ Outta Moonlight” by Randy Houser, which racked up 45.785 million AIs).

Let’s also make it clear that my objection to the new Hot Country Songs methodology has never been the incorporation of sales and streaming into a genre chart. My objection is to the inclusion of airplay from other formats on a genre-specific chart, especially the inclusion of airplay from other formats for remixes of a song, and also to the inclusion of sales of remixes on a genre-specific chart. Had the Hot Country Songs chart counted only airplay and sales for the original Florida-Georgia Line-only version of “Cruise,” the chart would have come closer to a true representation of the impact of “Cruise” as a “country” song. Let us also note that despite acknowledging that it was the release of the remix with Nelly that led to “Cruise”‘s surge back to #1 on the Hot Country Songs chart and crediting Nelly on the Hot 100 chart, Billboard declined to credit Nelly on the Hot Country Songs chart.

How Billboard Overstates “Cruise”s Impact Compared To Other Crossover Hits

Now, let’s dig deeper to show just how unrepresentative the current Billboard Hot Country Songs historical ledger is when it comes to chart impact. To do that, let’s look at the airplay peaks and sales of some of the biggest crossover hits of the past seven years (arranged in chronological order of release)

Digital download sales
Carrie Underwood, “Before He Cheats” (charted from 2006-2007): 3.82 million
Taylor Swift, “Love Story” (charted from 2008-2009): 5.6 million (according to Billboard)
Taylor Swift, “You Belong With Me” (charted from 2009-2010): 4.3 million (as of 6/12/13, according to this article)
Lady Antebellum, “Need You Now” (charted from 2009-2010): 6.2 million (according to Billboard)
Florida-Georgia Line, “Cruise” (charted from 2012-2013): 5.3 million (according to Billboard)

Sales of ‘host’ album
Carrie Underwood, Some Hearts (released November 2005): 7.334 million as of 8/10/13 Billboard chart
Taylor Swift, Fearless (released November 2008): 6.757 million as of 8/10/13 Billboard chart
Lady Antebellum, Need You Now (released January 2009): 3.996 million as of the 6/01/13 Billboard chart
Florida-Georgia Line, Here’s To The Good Times (released December 2012): 917k as of 8/10/13 Billboard chart

Country Airplay peaks:
“Before He Cheats”: #1 for 5 weeks (5 weeks at #1 on Hot Country Songs)
“Love Story”: #1 for 2 weeks (2 weeks at #1 on Hot Country Songs)
“You Belong With Me”: #1 for 2 weeks (2 weeks at #1 on Hot Country Songs)
“Need You Now”: #1 for 5 weeks (5 weeks at #1 on Hot Country Songs)
“Cruise”: #1 for 3 weeks (22 weeks and counting at #1 on Hot Country Songs)

Pop Songs (CHR/Top 40 Airplay) peaks:
“Before He Cheats”: #9
“Love Story”: #1
“You Belong With Me”: #2
“Need You Now”: #2
“Cruise”: #7

Adult Pop Songs (Hot AC Airplay) peaks:
“Before He Cheats”: #5
“Love Story”: #3
“You Belong With Me”: #2
“Need You Now”: #1
“Cruise”: #6

Adult Contemporary Songs peaks:
“Before He Cheats”: #6
“Love Story”: #1
“You Belong With Me”: #1
“Need You Now”: #1
“Cruise”: TBD – “Cruise” is currently #17 on the AC chart.

So “Cruise” is the #3 digital download seller, its host album is at less than 1/4 of total sales of other albums with big crossover hits and unlikely to ever reach their sales levels, its pop airplay peaks are lower than those of “Need You Now,” “Love Story” and “You Belong With Me,” and it spent less time at #1 on the country airplay charts than “Need You Now” and “Before He Cheats.” Yet the historical record represented by Billboard Hot Country Songs claims that “Cruise” is by far the biggest Hot Country Songs hit.

Obviously, the reason for the discrepancy is the difference in methodology in tabulating the Billboard Hot Country Songs chart. “Need You Now,” “Love Story” “You Belong With Me,” and “Before He Cheats” accrued their weeks atop Hot Country Songs when it was a country airplay-only survey. But just how off is the historical record that the Billboard Hot Country Songs chart represents when it comes to “Cruise” vis a vis other big crossover hits?

The Data
Well, the closest we can get to assessing this question is to comb through the Hot 100 charts, which since February 2005 have reflected the top songs by all-format airplay and paid digital downloads. As of October 2012, the Billboard Hot Country Songs chart is simply a distillation of the top country songs on or eligible to chart on the Hot 100. So, using Hot 100 rankings for country songs over the past 8 years will give us an extremely close approximation of what the top of Hot Country Songs chart would have looked like had it been constructed using the methodology used today (the only difference is that streaming data is absent from Hot 100 calculations prior to March 2012 in the case of Spotify and other audio streaming services and prior to February 2013 in the case of Youtube and other video streaming services).

I went back through the Billboard Hot 100, starting with the October 7, 2006 chart and noted the top charting country song on the Hot 100 every week, which would have been the #1 ranking song on the Billboard Hot Country Songs under the new methodology (minus streams, but those often favor crossover hits, anyway). Here’s what I found:

Carrie Underwood’s “Before He Cheats” was the Hot 100′s top ranking country song from: the 10/21/06 chart through the 2/24/07 chart, from the 3/24/07 chart through the 4/7/07 chart, on the 4/28/07 and 5/5/07 charts, and again from the 5/26/07 chart through the 9/08/07 chart.

Total weeks “Before He Cheats” spent as the top ranking country song on the Hot 100: 40

Taylor Swift’s “Love Story” was the Hot 100′s top ranking country-based song from the 9/27/08 chart through the 10/25/08 chart, on the 11/8/08 chart, and again from the 12/06/08 chart until either the 3/21/09 chart if you want to count Miley Cyrus’s “The Climb” as a country song or until the 4/4/09 chart (when the Carrie Underwood/Randy Travis duet version of “I Told You So” rode a sales wave to become the top ranking country song on the Hot 100). Starting with the 4/11/09 chart through the 6/13/09 chart, “Love Story” was the top ranking country song unless, again, “The Climb” counts.

Total weeks “Love Story” spent as the top ranking country based song on the Hot 100: (if we don’t count “The Climb” as a country song) 33 (if we do count “The Climb” as a country song): 21

Taylor Swift’s “You Belong With Me” became the Hot 100′s top ranking country-based song either on the 7/04/09 chart (if we don’t count “The Climb”) or on the 7/11/09 chart (if we do count “The Climb” as a country song) and remained in that position through the 11/07/09 chart. It once again became the Hot 100′s top ranking country based song on the 11/21/09 chart and for 3 weeks starting with the 1/09/10 chart.

Total weeks “You Belong With Me” spent as the top ranking country based song on the Hot 100: (if we don’t count “The Climb” as a country song) 23 (if we do count “The Climb” as a country song): 22

Lady Antebellum’s “Need You Now” was the top ranking country-based song on the Hot 100 starting with the 11/28/2009 chart through the 1/2/2010 chart and again on the 1/30/2010 chart. “Need You Now” also held the top ranking for country based songs on the Hot 100 from the 2/13/2010 chart straight through to the 8/27/2010 chart.

Total weeks “Need You Now” spent as the top ranking country based song on the Hot 100: 33

Lengths of other notable reigns as the top ranking country or country based song on the Hot 100:

Miley Cyrus,”The Climb” (if we count it as eligible for Hot Country Songs): 15 weeks
Taylor Swift, “Teardrops On My Guitar”: 12 weeks
Taylor Swift, “Back To December”: 13 weeks
The Band Perry, “If I Die Young”: 10 weeks
Jason Aldean (featuring Ludacris), “Dirt Road Anthem”: 8 weeks (tied for the longest reign since October 2006 without major crossover airplay)
Luke Bryan, “Drunk On You”: 8 weeks (tied for the longest reign since October 2006 without major crossover airplay)

“Cruise” has just achieved 22 weeks as the top ranking country based song on the Hot 100, but had the same Hot Country Songs methodology been in place 7 years ago, it would still be months away from catching Lady Antebellum’s “Need You Now,” Taylor Swift’s “Love Story” (arguably), and Carrie Underwood’s “Before He Cheats.” With “Cruise” now on the decline, Luke Bryan set to release a new album on 8/13 and hits by Randy Houser and Hunter Hayes gathering airplay and sales momentum, it is unlikely “Cruise” will be able to maintain its perch as the top ranking country song for the time needed to match those other crossover hits.

Conclusion
Let’s be clear: this is not an argument for crowning “Before He Cheats” the biggest Hot Country Songs hit of all time. It may be the only country song among those listed that crossed over without a pop remix (ironic since it is also the most undeniably country song on this list), but whether it’s sensible to allow pop crossover play to determine Hot Country Songs status remains an open question.

Instead, what’s illustrated above is why Billboard’s crowning of Florida-Georgia Line’s “Cruise” as the longest Billboard Hot Country Songs chart-topper of all time is a milestone without meaning. As music awards season heats up, we can likely expect a lot of crowing from Florida-Georgia Line’s team about “Cruise’s” achievement and why it’s necessary for the industry to acknowledge it over more acclaimed, substantial and risky work like that of country singer/songwriter Kacey Musgraves. But as you can see, this is a historical accomplishment that isn’t, and it exposes more than anything why Billboard importing the 68 year history of the Billboard Hot Country Songs chart into the chart with this new methodology has compromised Billboard’s status as a reliable and representative historical chart authority. There is more reason than ever to not believe the hype.

For more musings on the country charts and upcoming country music, feel free to check out my Tumblr.

  • Eilonwy_has_an_emu

    This is nifty! Which song “wins” is less important to me than how masterfully you tackled the comparison methodology problem.

    My major piffle with the new Billboard chart methodology — other than the one you note about making genre-specific charts no longer genre-specific — is that it’s a pain to try to normalize backward for real comparisons over time. So I’m delighted you found a plausible way to do it for country.

  • Anny_nanny

    After I discovered chart Hard Rock Digital Songs and songs of Queen, Bon Jovi and Evanescence on this chart, I’ve nothing can shock. Only the appearance Taylor Swift on Gospel.
    But thanks, your article was very informative as always.

  • Darko_5

    So Cruise is to country music records like steriods are to baseball records. I think after the second (remix) offense they should be banned for life.

  • Stooch

    Early Bon Jovi would qualify and Queen in their day were considered Hard Rock (to me some songs do and others don’t fit). But the fact you disqualify Evanescence makes me think you lack understanding of Hard Rock music, unless you define it using 1980′s standards in which case let’s just retire the genre title.

    As for the “Cruise” methodology thing with Billboard very interesting and very valid points. But I think the displeasure by some would have to do more with the band who achieved it than the evolution of the charting system.

  • fuzzywuzzy

    Thanks for the great analysis, windmills. Geez, what a mess.

  • Larc

    Florida-Georgia Line is set to perform at the NC State Fair on Sunday, October 20. About 4300 tickets at only $10 per went on sale yesterday and were all snapped up within 5 minutes. It was reported more than 10,000 people were in the online queue 30 minutes before tickets went on sale.

    Scotty will be performing at the fair on October 21 & 22.

  • Beaugard Stevens

    No offense, but this comes off a bit petty, it’s not empty or meaningless, it’s still a record for the chart regardless if it’s not as important as it might seem, and so what? The charts should not be taken that seriously, Carrie Underwood has certainly gotten her due for all her hard work.

  • Stooch

    I agree the title could have used “Flawed” instead of “Meaningless”. When you have over 5 million downloads somehow meaningless doesn’t seem an appropriate description.

  • Incipit

    No offense, Beaugard Stevens, but you don’t get to tell a NumberNerd that they ought not to take numbers seriously, and that none of the records they keep have any meaning. Minimizing them and what they are interested in is not cool, IMO.

  • g122y

    I dont like the new methodology at all..Meaningless.

  • g122y

    That’s why i stop looking at billboard.com ..what a mess

  • Lori

    Windmills, I am in awe of your number nerdery :) . I find the numbers threads fascinating because my heavily right-oriented brain can’t figure this stuff out but I’m drawn to it anyway LOL. Thanks for the very insightful post.

  • Joob

    Wow. I hope someone over there sees this. Thanks for all the number info. Numbers make my head hurt. lol

    What they should have done was create a whole new chart instead of this mess.

  • Joob

    Wow. I hope someone over there sees this. Thanks for all the number info. Numbers make my head hurt. lol

    What they should have done was create a whole new chart instead of this mess.

  • dd999

    This is interesting! Billboards’ new methodology, given the songs you mentioned in your analysis shows a huge discrepancy in the facts. All I can say about Florida-Georgia Line and their song ‘Cruise’ being given such high ratings in comparison to songs like Lady Antebellums’ ‘Need You Now’ and Carrie Underwood’s ‘Before He Cheats’ is hogwash, Billboard. Their new system, is not believable, and really leaves one thinking, if ‘Cruise’ is the best country music the industry can produce these days, it needs help or music listeners are settling for less! JMO

  • Kirsten

    Cool analysis.

    Billboard is ridiculous including airplay from other formats. And I would hate it if it influences people to put out music with more cross-over appeal. I like that there are genres with differences. Everything shouldn’t sound the same.

  • windmills

    Before He Cheats would only have this record through a methodology that, as I mentioned, I find to be highly problematic in the first place (counting airplay from other formats on the country chart). So as I stated, I was *not* suggesting BHC should have the record. In fact, I still lean to thinking Need You Now and Love Story were the bigger crossover hits (just an opinion based mostly on airplay peaks but I can see where it’s debatable).

    To be honest, I started out expecting to find Lady A’s Need You Now would have the most weeks as the Hot 100′s top ranking country song. That would have given me the song with the highest sales and with #1 peaks on 2 out of the 3 pop formats and a #2 peak on the other with the highest number of weeks as the top ranking Hot 100 country song. It would’ve been nice & clean. I wasn’t even going go back as far as 2006 at 1st, because my original intent was to stick to the 2 songs we know have outsold “Cruise” as a download.

    But I’m glad I did. The fact that BHC would have had the most weeks surprised me, but I guess it gave me a hook that made the post fit this blog.

  • windmills

    As I made clear several times, it’s the historical record that’s meaningless. I stated up in the 3rd paragraph, 1st sentence that “Cruise” is an undeniably huge hit.

    The take home message from this is not really about any single song. It’s that the Billboard historical record is messed up due to problematic methodology, and that press releases about chart accomplishments like this (like the ones that have been breathlessly repeated throughout the country media in the last day and a half) shouldn’t be taken at face value.

  • dd999

    Agree! Sadly the really great sound of country ( like Alan Jackson and his great country hits like Chatahoochee which is country at its finest ) is becoming a ‘BLUR’ with some of this cross-over stuff.

  • Jaejae1

    omg that was wordy! But rather interesting!

  • twinkies-are-back

    For crying out loud, everyone has a right to say what they feel….good grief…

  • Kariann Hart

    What I find flawed is comparing the great hits of the 1950′s and 60′s to today’s charting. Had those songs been available to the public the way the songs are now, very few records would be broken. It’s like comparing apples to oranges. What if all this technology was available to Hank Williams and Patsy Cline.
    Patsy Cline’s “Crazy” (written by Willie Nelson) was the Number One Jukebox song of the 20th Century. Just think of all the people that put money into jukeboxes were counted each time they were played. It’s all too confusing to me. Thank you, Windmills for your analysis. Billboard is flawed.

  • Happyhexer

    That’s my problem with Florida-Georgia Line. They can’t sing.