Hits Daily Double has come out with its sales projections (based on 1 day sales) for rising country act/Season 10 Idol champ Scotty McCreery, not to mention the Willie Nelson duets album featuring Carrie Underwood among many other talented ladies of country, Americana, and gospel.
Pearl Jam (Republic) 170-180k
Paul McCartney (Hear Music) 70-80k
Avett Brothers (American/Republic) 60-65k
Scotty McCreery (19/Interscope) 40-45k
Head and the Heart (Sub Pop) 35-40k
Willie Nelson (Legacy) 27-30k
Gavin DeGraw (RCA) 25-28k
Trivium (Roadrunner) 14-17k
Mary J. Blige (Verve/Interscope) 12-14k
Fall Out Boy PAX AM Days EP (Island/IDJ) 12-14k
UPDATE: Both Scotty’s album and the Willie Nelson duets CD are trending up in HDD’s midweek projections, which factor in an extra day of sales. Also, Season 3 Voice champ Cassadee Pope is looking at a respectable 58-63% 2nd week drop that may keep her in the all genre t15 of album sales.
*Pearl Jam (Monkeywrench/Republic) 170-180k
Miley Cyrus (RCA) 75-80k
*Paul McCartney (Hear Music) 70-75k
*Avett Brothers (American/Republic) 60-65k
Drake (Young Money/Cash Money/Republic) 55-60k
*Scotty McCreery (Mercury Nashville/19/Interscope) 45-50k
Lorde (Lava/Republic) 45-50k
*The Head and the Heart (Sub Pop) 35-40k
*Willie Nelson (Legacy) 35-40k
*Gavin DeGraw (RCA) 25-28k
Luke Bryan (Capitol Nashville) 21-24k
Pusha T (Def Jam/IDJ) 18-21k
Cher (Warner Bros.) 17-20k
Cassadee Pope (Republic Nashville) 16-18k
*Trivium (Roadrunner) 16-18k
*Chase Rice (Dack Janiels) 16-18k
The projection is, not surprisingly, a stiff drop (of 77-80%) from the 1st week sales of Scotty’s post-Idol debut, Clear As Day, which sold 197k when it was released 10/4/11. The projection is also in the same range as the 41k with which Christmas With Scotty McCreery (Scotty’s Christmas album) opened after being released 10/16/2012. If the projection holds, Scotty is in good shape to score his 2nd #1 country album, and has a pretty good chance at his 3rd t10 debut on the Billboard 200 albums chart.
The past few months have seen a whole lot of new albums from rising country male acts. Brett Eldredge’s debut album sold 21k 1st week when it was released 8/6/2013 with its 1st hit single peaking at #1 country. Justin Moore’s 3rd studio album (out 9/17/13) opened with a surprising 97k with its lead single peaking at #1 country. Chris Young’s 4th studio album opened with 53k (also out 9/17/13) with its lead single solidifying a t10 spot at country radio. Billy Currington’s 5th studio album (also out 9/17/13) opened with 26k with its lead single in the t5 at country radio (but Currington didn’t do much promo for it at the time). Tyler Farr’s debut album (out 9/30/13) sold 29k with its lead single approaching #1 country at the time. Joe Nichols has been releasing albums since 2002, and his latest album just debuted with 15k (16k counting a significant amount of street date violations) with its lead single just outside the t10 at country radio.
In comparison, Scotty’s lead single sits at #32 on the Billboard Country Airplay chart and #35 Country Aircheck/Mediabase airplay chart in its 26th week on the charts. At the level of airplay Scotty’s “See You Tonight” is currently receiving, he is relying on his core Idol fanbase for first week album sales.
Among recent sophomore albums from Idol releases, See You Tonight’s projection potentially puts it in a similar range to Season 7 champ David Cook’s This Loud Morning (46k sold 1st week after its 6/28/2011 release), above Season 7 runner up David Archuleta’s 24k for The Other Side Of Down (released 10/5/2010) and Season 8 champ Kris Allen’s 16k for Thank You Camellia (released 5/22/2012), and below Season 8 runner-up Adam Lambert’s 77k for Trespassing (released 5/15/2012). None of these four was able to gain traction on their home radio formats and all wound up parting ways with their labels. Scotty is going for country radio play and not pop/HAC/AC airplay like the two Davids, Kris, and Adam were. Whether country radio opens the door for “See You Tonight” to return Scotty to the country t20 is yet to be seen, but callout for “See You Tonight” points to the potential for “See You Tonight” to do well.