Monday Morning Mediabase Update – Nov 15-21

Brrr…it’s starting to get cold out there as the Christmas Freeze approaches. Already, it looks like it is snowing on AC with all the falling songs. But, fear not, we are still getting some milestones.

First up is Fantasia. Her second single, “I’m Doin’ Me” has reached top 10 on UAC. This is her second single from her current album to hit top 10 in that format.

Over on HAC, Hedley (lead singer from Canadian Idol) has slowly chugged its way up to top 30 with their song “Perfect”.

Last, but not least, are the milestones on plain AC. And it’s all about the Christmas songs. Archie’s “Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas” has reached top 30 in that format while Katharine’s version of the same song has hit top 50. Katharine has a second single on the chart with her “I’ll Be Home For Christmas” reaching top 40 this week. SuBo has also hit top 50, but this is an Idol chart so I can pretend that never happened.

Details after the jump! (as of 7:23 pm on 11/21/10).

Adam Lambert:
“If I Had You”: 27 HAC (23), ^42 AC (38)

Carrie Underwood:
“Mama’s Song”: ^10 Country (10)
“Undo It”: 35 HAC (33)

Chris Sligh:
“Only You Can Save”: ^13 CAC (13)

Daughtry:
“September”: 7 HAC (5), 7 AC (7), 20 Pop (18)

David Archuleta:
“Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas”: ^29 AC (54)

Fantasia:
“I’m Doin’ Me”: ^8 UAC (12), ^22 Urban (22)

Hedley (Jacob from CI2):
“Perfect”: ^30 HAC (31)

Jason Castro:
“You Are”: ^20 CAC (20)

Katharine McPhee:
“Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas”: ^45 AC (0)
“I’ll be Home For Chrismas”: ^32 AC (64)

Lee DeWyze:
“Sweet Serendipity”: ^34 HAC (37)

Matt Giruad:
“Thank You” (Jim Brickman): 26 AC (25)

Note: Numbers indicate position on the chart while numbers in brackets indicate the position on the chart the previous week. The “^” (aka “a bullet”) indicates that a song gained spins since last week

Upcoming Add Dates (from AllAccess):
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This is the daily numbers thread for Monday.

About Kirsten 3046 Articles
Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.

200 Comments

  1. Danny’s single “Tennessee Christmas” is now available for sale on Itunes.

  2. Remind me when the freeze sort of run through. From about the day after thanksgiving until new years?

  3. Hate the invasion of spam ads here. That must bug you MJ. Any way to stop them?

  4. Hate the invasion of spam ads here. That must bug you MJ. Any way to stop them?

    WordPress has a lot of plugins that could stop the spam. i have my own self-hosted wordpress blog and I have no problems.

  5. I just bought Danny’s new single Tennessee Christmas on Itunes. It is a beautiful song – I enjoy the tender Danny.

  6. Before today’s HDD numbers come out, here are the actual (not rounded off) Billboard numbers for the week ending 11/14.
    Only albums in the top 100 were available.

    Soundscan For The Week Ending: 11/14/2010
    TW Artist & Title TW Sales %CHG LW Sales RTD

    1 BOYLE*SUSAN THE GIFT 317,895 999 686 306,604
    2 SWIFT*TAYLOR SPEAK NOW 211,778 -34 319,701 1,578,219
    48 UNDERWOOD*CARRIE PLAY ON 12,091 14 10,578 1,798,400
    58 FANTASIA BACK TO ME 9,111 -0 9,119 308,742
    60 BOYLE*SUSAN I DREAMED A DREAM 8,587 121 3,894 3,839,510
    73 GLEE CAST ROCKY HORROR GLEE 6,876 -34 10,412 95,898
    91 GLEE CAST GLEE: THE MUSIC,V3 5,721 24 4,621 504,008

    Kelly’s country duet DYWS is the most added song on country radio after Taylor Swift so far today. Lots of big markets as well.

  7. I don’t understand that Susan Boyle figure. How can her weekly sales be more than total sales. The last figure is total sales, right?

  8. That’s a weird glitch on the chart. I’m sure there’s some technical reason for it. Street violations? Yes the last figure are weekly sales.

  9. Lee’s SS has 3 early HAC auto adds this morning;

    KURB-FM Little Rock #85 – Spins 7
    KYKY-FM St. Louis #21 – Spins 9
    WOMX-FM Orlando #34 – Spins 8

    Kris – 0

  10. Go Kat..2 Christmas songs charting on AC! Love seeing all those stations spins

    Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas”: ^45 AC (0)
    “I’ll be Home For Chrismas”: ^32 AC (64)

  11. I don’t understand why stations aren’t playing AWM. How can you not love that song?

  12. ^^ I don’t love the song. I actually find it kinda annoying ( Altho I thought the homemade video was cute). I doubt that i’m alone. I know that kris’ fans love it. Different strokes and all that

  13. 42% of the country stations reported so far, 11 monitored adds for DYWS (20 combined)
    KATM-FM Stockton, CA #82
    KIXZ-FM Spokane #91
    * KMLE-FM Phoenix #15
    * KNCI-FM Sacramento #27
    * KSCS-FM Dallas #5
    * WIVK-FM Knoxville #71
    WMZQ-FM Washington, DC #9
    WPOC-FM Baltimore #22
    * WQYK-FM Tampa #19
    WTGE-FM Baton Rouge #79
    * WUSN-FM Chicago #3

    The song was also added in 5 of the 8 canadian country stations that reported so far.

    ETA: there’s also a mediabase AI report:
    JASON ALDEAN/KELLY CLARKSON – Don’t You Wanna Stay: 3.123 (+ 0.342)

  14. wjmtv: AWM hasn’t went for adds yet and there are many stations that won’t play a song before it is sent to adds. It is not necessary that the stations don’t like the song.

  15. AWM hasn’t went for adds yet and there are many stations that won’t play a song before it is sent to adds. It is not necessary that the stations don’t like the song.

    Unfortunately, at this point, it doesn’t seem like there will ever be an official adds date.

  16. anovich: you cannot know that. It can go to adds after the holidays. Just this week he has done promo for AWM, including radio promo and there are radio-related concert that he is doing in the next weeks.

  17. luly: I know that – just don’t have much hope since they kind of threw it out there for a while without an add date. Similar to the Archie situation.

  18. IMO, if AWM was going to be sent for adds they would have already done it. I also think Kris was probably told that they were not planning on a video, thus he took it into his own hands to record something for his fans, which ended up miles better than anything the label would have done ,imo. I don’t really like AWM, but the video was so cute and fun.

  19. anovich- I am not sure about Archie’s first single, but Archie’s second single actually had a HAC adds date(it was posted on Billboard and the song did get adds during that date. What happened after that is a mystery).
    I actually think that the promo is encouraging sign and I hope that an adds date for AWM will come with a lot of promo behind it, because the label’s push is the important part.

  20. wjmtv:
    11/22/2010 at 10:32 am

    I don’t understand why stations aren’t playing AWM. How can you not love that song?

    JMHO — the song lacks a strong hook, is somewhat repetitive and really doesn’t fit with Pop radio. So that leaves HAC which is packed right not. 8 of the Top 20 HAC songs are hits from other formats. And there is a lot of light rock-pop music out now — Neon Trees, Lifehouse, Daughtry, Maroon 5, The Script, Train, etc.

    __________________________________________________________________

    I am frustrated with what is happening to Lee. SS is not my fav song but it is OK. I think if promoted aggressively it could get meaningful airplay.

    SS has two HAC stations that have played SS that have not added it yet…

    KYIS-FM Oklahoma City Hot AC 4 spins LW Did not add.
    WPST-FM Trenton, NJ Hot AC 7 spins LW Adds not reported yet, likely add.

    Since it looks like RCA is not going to do much do promote SS — <500 spins after 5 weeks and going into week 2 of the album —

    and with the Christmas freeze coming —

    I am wondering if they have another single cued up for Lee the first of the year? I really wish they would have released LIU in the first place, but hoping that is the follow-up single.

    And, yes SS could still continue to move up the HAC chart — just not looking likely that RCA is really behind it and can’t see it doing much on Pop radio.

  21. I don’t understand why stations aren’t playing AWM. How can you not love that song?

    ^^ I don’t love the song. I actually find it kinda annoying ( Altho I thought the homemade video was cute). I doubt that i’m alone. I know that kris’ fans love it. Different strokes and all that

    It’s actually my least favorite on the album. I find the claps and yeah yeahs and strumminess annoying and gets into a country type sound for me. It’s the one track I deleted from my ipod after loading the album. The video pretty good though. Still doesn’t make me like the song, lol.

  22. Q3, what are the 3 big chains? Just curious. Are you talking about discount stores, like Walmart?

    I’m curious to know which outlet sells the most CDs. Everyone says that Amazon represents a small share of sales, and digital downloads account for about 20%, right? So, does that mean most people still walk into a store and purchase a CD?

    TIA.

  23. Many times artists do these radio sponsored concerts and it means nothing. I remember Archie doing them for ALTNOY and it didnt help the song. Its a crapshoot. and IMO Kris would be wise not to be bothered with an “official” video since its just going to come out of his pocket.

    Dont get me started on SS. I just ranted in Headlines about Lee’s lack of presence at the AMA’s despite EVERY winner being there every year. I dont know what the hell they’re doing with him. If you ask me I think both SS and AWM arent in great shape now and I dont see either taking off after the holidays.

    Holy hell Josh Groban is on Oprahs Favorite Things Part 2 today. Look for his numbers to explode next week.

  24. If you ask me I think both SS and AWM arent in great shape now and I dont see either taking off after the holidays.

    The big problem for SS is that none of the big HAC stations (top 5 markets) have added it yet. If it doesn’t get those adds it can’t go much higher. The problem for Lee is this is his lead single.

    As disappointed as I am in the AWM and the lack of adds, this isn’t the lead single for Kris’s album, so it’s not comprable to Lee’s situation.

  25. iTunes Top 1000 Songs

    63. Don’t You Wanna Stay (with Kelly Clarkson) – Jason Aldean
    114. There’s a Place for Us – Carrie Underwood
    140. September – Daughtry
    167. Sweet Serendipity – Lee DeWyze
    180. If I Had You – Adam Lambert
    210. Undo It – Carrie Underwood
    352. Whataya Want from Me – Adam Lambert
    383. Beautiful Like You – Lee DeWyze
    472. I’m Doin’ Me – Fantasia
    479. Cowboy Casanova – Carrie Underwood
    611. Live It Up – Lee DeWyze

    iTunes Top 1000 Albums

    23. Live It Up – Lee DeWyze
    164. Play On – Carrie Underwood
    174. Back to Me – Fantasia
    247. Christmas from the Heart – David Archuleta
    686. Leave This Town (Bonus Track Version) – Daughtry
    700. Some Hearts – Carrie Underwood
    937. Leave This Town – Daughtry
    949. Daughtry – Daughtry
    993. Leave This Town: The B-Sides – EP – Daughtry

  26. I really like AWM so I hope it starts to take off. The MV is great. I wonder how much Katie helped with it? Doesn’t she have a degree in theater and isn’t she an actress. I could see her giving direction on it. The AWM MV has a very professional look to it. I actually like it better than the LLWD MV.

  27. For the Lee fans that are here…I was at my mall yesterday…(I always check to see if they are still stocking Adam’s CD)…just to let you they had Lee’s CD there in the best sellers section.

  28. undercooked: The video was filmed and directed by one of Kris’s friends. Katy probably had nothing to do with the video(and why would she? She is not a director).

  29. To be honest, I don’t think it is necessary for AWM to sell albums. It just needs to sell singles. How expensive is it to give an add date? Seriously, can’t they just send an email? “Hey PDs, we would like to see this song added by such and such date. “

  30. Maybe Lee will sell more than the 30-40k predicted? I see he is at #23 itunes; that isn’t that bad 1 week out is it?

  31. undercooked: The video was filmed and directed by one of Kris’s friends. Katy probably had nothing to do with the video(and why would she? She is not a director).

    LOL! Ok thanks for the info. I think Katy is very talented. I thought she was very good in her internet film and I could see her as an asset for Kris when it comes to MVs. I didn’t think it was so far out of the realm of possibilities that she contributed somehow.

  32. Here are some selected CD album ranks from Amazon….

    #1 Susan Boyle The Gift
    #2 Jackie Evancho Oh Holy Night
    #4 Glee Christman album
    #14 Glee: The Music, Volume 4
    #46 Lee DeWyze Live It Up
    #107 Crystal Bowersox Farmer’s Daughter (persale)
    #125 Carrie Underwood Play On
    #174 Katharine McPhee Christmas Is The Time…(To Say I Love You)
    #243 Daughtry Leave This Town
    #249 Adam Lambert UNAUTHORIZED RELEASE Take Two, no playlist
    #254 Adam Lambert For Your Entertainment
    #318 Fantasia Back to Me
    #363 David Archuleta Christmas from the Heart
    #377 David Archulets The Other Side of Down
    #572 Daughtry Daughtry
    #746 Carrie Underwood Some Hearts
    #992 Carrie Underwood Carnival Ride

  33. Considering that most radio promo happens behind the scenes, nobody can say what is or will not be done.

    As far as station PDs liking a song, that has nothing to do with it getting added. And AWM must have something going for it, since it sol quite a few copies based just on the short snippet that was played in the Ford commercials.

  34. Considering that most radio promo happens behind the scenes, nobody can say what is or will not be done.

    As far as station PDs liking a song, that has nothing to do with it getting added. And AWM must have something going for it, since it sol quite a few copies based just on the short snippet that was played in the Ford commercials.

    Exactly. Thank you!!

  35. Maybe Lee will sell more than the 30-40k predicted? I see he is at #23 itunes; that isn’t that bad 1 week out is it?

    The vast majority of cds are not purchased digitally. At the most, being the top cd on itunes probably translates to 5,000 to 7,000 copies sold, and that’s being generous.

  36. SS is slowly climbing right? I mean it is not dead, it’s just moving slow. As for AWM, maybe TT hurt Kris momentum a bit too much. I think if AWM had followed LLWD, things would have been different.

  37. Fox All-Access’ syndicated program spun AWM, which is giving it a lot of new stations over the past couple days. Also a station in Atlanta (KISS 102.7) this morning linked to the video (which the DJ tweeted he has watched multiple times) and is basically telling listeners to request Kris’ single for the lunch hour thingy. WTMX has been spinning it during its New Music hour. The song has been getting really good feedback when stations do spin it.

    Etc etc etc. I personally think Jive may push it after the holiday freeze. I have no insider info, but the ramp up in promotion for it over the past week should mean something. I know that’s mostly 19’s (i.e. Lizzie’s) doing, not Jive’s, but would 19 even bother if Jive wasn’t at least thinking of pushing it?

    (also Lizzie told us they are trying to make the video Kris released to the fans the official video for AWM, but she’s getting some resistance)

  38. Q3

    1. KATA is not widely available at retail and is not stocked in Walmart, Target or Best Buy stores. (Also not stocked in B&N or the Christian chains.)

    “Kris Allen” the album is stocked at my local Best Buys and Targets and there are quite a few of these in my area since I live near the Twin Cities (I have recently looked for it at both places – multiple Targets and multiple Best Buys – and found it on the shelf). It is only 1 copy or at most a few copies. I haven’t checked at Walmart or any other places recently. Like most item in an inventory at a big chain store, if that 1 copy sells, 1 copy gets restocked as long as the store/company determines. The system automatically replenishes itself. Sometimes shrink (theft, etc.) causes inventory to be screwed up and then it won’t be replenished because it will still think it is in the store thus not triggering a reorder or sometimes it may not be available because that one copy has been purchased and the store is still waiting to be restocked.

    Always ask, especially at places like B&N because they can just order it for you.

  39. SS is slowly climbing right? I mean it is not dead, it’s just moving slow. As for AWM, maybe TT hurt Kris momentum a bit too much. I think if AWM had followed LLWD, things would have been different.

    TT totally killed Kris’s momentum – just another in a long list of boneheaded Jive decisions with Idol alumns as of late. (See Scars, SBL/Elevator, and that SOS song of Jordin’s)

    SS is moving slowly, the difference between it’s slow movement and the slow movement of LLWD last year is that it has not had one of the BIG 5 HAC station add it as of yet and it has not been sent to CHR/Pop for adds. If both of those things had happened I would think he would be in much better shape.

  40. Q3

    I think you are overgeneralizing in saying KATA isn’t stocked at any of the Big 3 stores. I saw it quite recently at both Target and Best Buy here in L.A. In fact, there were as many copies of KATA in the bins as there were of FYE (at Target I saw 2 copies of both, at Best Buy I saw 3 of both). But even if it is not in stock, pretty much any store will order any album for a customer if you request them to do so.

  41. pineappletree:
    I quoted the wrong post smeggs…facepalm…lol

    hehehe ;)

  42. SS is moving slowly up the charts. The holiday freeze is not going to help get it into the Top 20 anytime soon (it’s like 600 spins behind the 20th ranked song as it is). Whether it will be able to regain any momentum or even pick up any speed after the holidays is the real question, because so far it appears as if the big markets aren’t very interested in it — and Lee needs NY, L.A. and/or Chicago to get behind SS to really give it a big push. (He’s doing some performance for KBIG here in L.A. this week, so maybe they will start spinning it).

  43. I think you are overgeneralizing in saying KATA isn’t stocked at any of the Big 3 stores. I saw it quite recently at both Target and Best Buy here in L.A. In fact, there were as many copies of KATA in the bins as there were of FYE (at Target I saw 2 copies of both, at Best Buy I saw 3 of both). But even if it is not in stock, pretty much any store will order any album for a customer if you request them to do so.

    Exactly. I was in a BN recently looking for something else that wasn’t in stock and when I asked for help, they were willing to order it for me. No reason it wouldn’t be the same if I had asked for KATA (and for the record, the only Idol album I saw in stock was Archie’s newest (was before Lee’s drop date.))

  44. If you have a cite, post it. If you don’t, stop baiting.

    Entire conversation will now be deleted. If the baiting does not stop, I will talk to MJ about a banning. I’m dead serious. This is a fact based thread.

  45. At the most, being the top cd on itunes probably translates to 5,000 to 7,000 copies sold, and that’s being generous.

    This is not necessarily true – especially during the holidays. Cook hit #1 on iTunes and sold 59,000 digital copies when his album released, a new record for a debut artist at the time and Ke$ha had most of her debut sales happen digitally (76% out of 152,000 sold, which was a record), albeit that is rare.

    However, it is all relative so it can really vary.

  46. SS is moving slowly up the charts. The holiday freeze is not going to help get it into the Top 20 anytime soon (it’s like 600 spins behind the 20th ranked song as it is). Whether it will be able to regain any momentum or even pick up any speed after the holidays is the real question,

    This is how I’ve been feeling for weeks. His issue is that he won’t be high up there before the freeze, and he’s not having the album sales to fall back on. AND hes only on HAC. What is going to prop him up during the lean months? And will PDs still care when the freeze is over? I would like to see some evidence that RCA is trying make sure he has momentum after the holidays.

    EDIT: Deleted because the OP is gone, and now I look like a nut talking to herself. LOL

  47. Anyone looking for KATA should be able to find it. I saw a few copies just last week at my Target & Barnes & Noble stores. No worries.

  48. Ke$ha had most of her debut sales happen digitally (76% out of 152,000 sold, which was a record), albeit that is rare.

    That was a different case, since they discounted her album by a lot online. In some cases it cost half as much as the physical copy. But you are right, I should have made an exception for albums sold during the holidays, especially on Black Friday, but for the rest of the year, I think the total is around 5 to 7000, on average, and it could go a little higher for big name artists.

  49. What time on Mondays does HDD usually post their first numbers? They say 7:30 AM PST, but that’s a laugh since I’ve never known them to post that early.

  50. What time on Mondays does HDD usually post their first numbers? They say 7:30 AM PST, but that’s a laugh since I’ve never known them to post that early.

    LMAO. It typically shows up sometime in the afternoon EST, the earliest being noon but I think more commonly after say 2pm or so.

    Fingers crossed for Lee. I mean that sincerely. I hope he can break 45K.

  51. I’ve seen Kris’ album at Target, Best Buy, Hastings, H.E.B. (a grocery store in Texas) and in a university bookstore. Walmart offers it online if you can’t find it in the store. They’re also restocking because sometimes I check and they’re out and the next time I’m in the store there are more copies.

  52. SS has two HAC stations that have played SS that have not added it yet…

    KYIS-FM Oklahoma City Hot AC 4 spins LW Did not add.
    WPST-FM Trenton, NJ Hot AC 7 spins LW Adds not reported yet, likely add.

    I’m seeing more stations that played SS on the mediabase site…

    WMMX-FM Pub 8 Hot AC Dayton 19/RMG Clear Channel Communications 61
    WPST-FM Pub 6 Hot AC Trenton, NJ 19/RMG Nassau Broadcasting Partners LP 143
    WTMX-FM Pub 6 Hot AC Chicago 19/RMG Bonneville International Corporation 3
    KYIS-FM Pub 3 Hot AC Oklahoma City 19/RMG Citadel Communications Corp. 48
    WSJO-FM Pub 3 Hot AC Atlantic City, NJ 19/RMG Millennium Radio Group 141

  53. This isn’t anything to get too excited about, but AWM’s AI on CHR has gone over 0.1 for the first time. (I have a request in to Brian M to see if he can tell me where AWM is on Hot AC chart — it was #63 last week)

    POP CHART

    127 112 KRIS ALLEN Alright With Me 35 28 7 0.114

    +2 spins
    +2 bullet
    +0.020 AI

  54. Each label should still have their own separate budget lines, right?

    They absolutely would. Even if they shared 100% of their staff, as long as its a separately reportable business line for accounting purposes.

  55. A CD may be in a store even after a title in no longer being actively stocked.

    Here are the Q1 2010 music retail shares from NPD’s May 2010 report, Retail sales share is dropping…and will be down more for the holidays.

    All Music
    iTunes 28% +4% since Q1 2009.
    Amazon 12% +3% since Q1 2009
    Walmart 12%

    CD Sales

    Walmart 17% share
    Best Buy 14%
    Amazon 11%
    Target 9%

    Since then Walmart has size of music departments in over 1,000 stores. Target has reduced size of music department in all stores that have music departments. And Best Buy has dramatically reduced their CD assortment for the Holidays.

    Best Buy Chief Executive Brian Dunn:

    “We’ll have another store reset before the holidays, which will include an increase in the space for higher-growth and, in the aggregate, higher-margin categories, like Best Buy Mobile, e-readers and gaming, with a heavy emphasis on new gaming platforms and pre-owned game titles,” Dunn said in comments cited by Click, IBD’s tech blog.

    “This will be enabled by our reorganization of the DVD and CD sections,” Dunn said. “The CD section in particular will shrink in space allotment.” The company’s business is increasingly shifting toward cell phones, electronic appliances and laptops — as well as video games, which now rival Hollywood blockbusters in revenue for the top titles like Halo.

    See full article from DailyFinance: http://srph.it/cetZAJ

    Finally, the whole thing will change dramatically when Google launches its music business. If they launch a subscription-style, cloud-based streaming music system, the whole model could look more like Sweden. If they can’t get the labels on board with a subscription service, then they will come up with a different model. Google is very smart and they know that since iTUnes has 70% share of US digital music, merely replicating iTunes would just make them another small player.

    Going to be an interesting 2011!

  56. First HDD numbers are up now. With 31.77%, Lee’s album is at #24 with 10,593 in sales so far.

  57. larc:
    11/22/2010 at 2:13 pm

    First HDD numbers are up now. With 31.77%, Lee’s album is at #24 with 10,593 in sales so far.

    Is this in line for his projected 45,000k?

  58. Is this in line for his projected 45,000k?

    Hard to say. It depends on who reports first. We know that more of his sales probably came from itune than say a store that is said not to carry his album. So the question is, who is reporting first.

  59. With 31.77%, Lee’s album is at #24 with 10,593 in sales so far.

    It will be very sad if Lee doesn’t at least make Top 20 in his debut week.

  60. pineappletree:
    11/22/2010 at 2:17 pm

    larc:
    11/22/2010 at 2:13 pm

    First HDD numbers are up now. With 31.77%, Lee’s album is at #24 with 10,593 in sales so far.

    Is this in line for his projected 45,000k?

    It’s hard to tell, on a purely mathematical level, no. It would be tracking close to around 35K mathematically. However, with HDD its hard to tell because different retailers report at different times. That 31.77% may not include one of the big retailers like Walmart or Best Buy.

  61. Is this in line for his projected 45,000k?

    If you straight interpolate, it would give you around 33K. But you usually can’t do a straight interpolation because the perecentage is the perecentage of the market reporting, not the percentage of sales this week.

    Usually, the first vendors to report are places like Amazon and Walmart (Walmart used to report in two batches and I don’t know if they still do that). Country acts and acts aimed at older fans tend to relatively better on the first day and urban artists do relatively better on the second day. In general.

    So, we don’t know much yet.

  62. girlygirl:
    11/22/2010 at 2:07 pm

    This isn’t anything to get too excited about, but AWM’s AI on CHR has gone over 0.1 for the first time. (I have a request in to Brian M to see if he can tell me where AWM is on Hot AC chart — it was #63 last week)

    POP CHART

    127 112 KRIS ALLEN Alright With Me 35 28 7 0.114

    +2 spins
    +2 bullet
    +0.020 AI

    All those spins are still coming from Little Rock, right?? According to the mediabase adds board, KLAL is still the only POP station playing it. He needs to get more pop stations involved. I still think the song will do fine after the holidays, it’s a good song and very much Kris’s vibe – fun and seems to fit his personality, much more so than The Truth.

    Girlygirl, is he doing any POP radio promo yet?

    I think the video he made for AWM is all kinds of win and it would be great as the official video if Lizzie is right.

  63. HDD (31.7%)
    1 1 SUSAN BOYLE COLUMBIA 142,861
    THE GIFT
    — 6 JACKIE EVANCHO COLUMBIA 62,361
    O HOLY NIGHT
    — 7 GLEE CAST COLUMBIA 60,909
    CHRISTMAS ALBUM
    — 24 LEE DEWYZE 19/RCA/RMG 10,593
    LIVE IT UP
    — 34 SUSAN BOYLE COLUMBIA 6,539
    I DREAMED A DREAM
    49 45 CARRIE UNDERWOOD 19/ARISTA NASHVILLE 4,997
    PLAY ON

    It’s really hard to predict from incomplete HDD data.

  64. This report was probably Target because that’s where Keith Urban had his special edition and major promotion plus that’s who’s selling Taylor Swift’s holiday collection in stores.

    Was Lee’s album on sale anywhere? What stores had the best deals?

  65. Hopefully Lee’s sales will pick up as the later #s come out because that first chart puts him on a pace to sell approximately 35K

  66. Has AWM even been sent to Pop? It really doesn’t have much future there. HAC is the right place for the song.

  67. I just read that Lee has a concert scheduled in Chicago at the Hard Rock. I wonder if this is radio station sponsored (WTMX, maybe?) because if it is, it could be huge for the song.

    SS is actually doing OK, it just needs a couple big markets to pick it up.

  68. Was Lee’s album on sale anywhere? What stores had the best deals?

    I didn’t see any deals in my area. I thought it was strange.

  69. progression:
    11/22/2010 at 2:10 pm

    Each label should still have their own separate budget lines, right?

    They absolutely would. Even if they shared 100% of their staff, as long as its a separately reportable business line for accounting purposes.

    Each Project within Sony Music Entertainment — so there is a full set of financials for KATA, FYE, DCTA, etc. No different at any major label. The business and contractual obligations are based on project accounting.

    But no matter how the numbers are rolled it doesn’t change the economics of US Radio promotion. It is very rare for a label to invest in promoting singles for an album that is over a year old, and fell out of the Top 200 months ago. (I am sure it has happened :) and that someone here knows the exception.)

    At this point I think it is very unlikely that AWM will get substantial promotional support. Hope I am wrong.

    JMHO YMMV.

  70. jpfan: AWM wasn’t sent to pop yet, but I disagree with you that it cannot do well there.

  71. CindyM

    The majority — but not all — of the POP spins are from the LR station. 2 other CHR stations have spun it this week

    Interestingly, it has also gotten a spin from the Rhythmic station in Philadelphia (WRDW)

  72. girlygirl:
    Hopefully Lee’s sales will pick up as the later #s come out because that first chart puts him on a pace to sell approximately 35K

    BB’s last prediction was for 30 to 40K. 35K would put Lee’s album right in the middle of that.

  73. I was very surprised that Kris got another single (same reason as Q3 posted) It’s weird that it never got an adds date for HAC though. This is like a stealth single. I don’t want to be negative but without label support, most singles flop. They often flop with it.

  74. JPFan

    no not yet. But then again it hasn’t even gotten an official adds date for Hot AC yet. And again, it could be Jive is just waiting until after the holiday freeze to push it. Considering it hasn’t gotten an official adds date in any format, it’s not doing horribly.

    I think it would do just fine on CHR. It’s not really something that I see as only Hot AC. It even got a spin from a rhythmic station (LLWD actually got a handful of spins from Rhythmic stations)

  75. girlygirl:
    11/22/2010 at 2:42 pm

    CindyM

    The majority — but not all — of the POP spins are from the LR station. 2 other CHR stations have spun it this week

    ah, okay. Those other stations just must not be listed on the Mediabase board as a station not added but spinning, I guess.

  76. girlygirl: that rhythmic station is actually playing the HA version of FOX All Access.

  77. First HDD numbers are up now. With 31.77%, Lee’s album is at #24 with 10,593 in sales so far.

    Yikes, I thought he’d get around 40K. Now it’s looking more like mid 30Ks. Fortunately it’s a short holiday week. And the headlines will be about SuBo and the AMAs.

  78. CindyM: The additional pop stations were from the syndicated Fox All-Access show, as was the Rhythmic spin, all of which happened yesterday, so those will show up on the addboard site when they update those numbers next weekend. They do show on the spin report that’s updated daily at MB but not the weekly one as those are thru Saturday airplay.

  79. Chicagolaw:

    I just read that Lee has a concert scheduled in Chicago at the Hard Rock. I wonder if this is radio station sponsored (WTMX, maybe?) because if it is, it could be huge for the song.

    Yes, The Mix is sponsoring the show.

  80. SashaB

    wouldn’t count on it. It was the same holiday week last year and the media still found plenty of room to report that Kris’ debut week numbers were the lowest selling Idol winner ever, so I’m betting they will say something about Lee’s poor sales.

  81. That Mix-sponsored concert is a free show, so Lee needs to pack that place out.

  82. SashaB:
    11/22/2010 at 2:51 pm

    First HDD numbers are up now. With 31.77%, Lee’s album is at #24 with 10,593 in sales so far.

    Yikes, I thought he’d get around 40K. Now it’s looking more like mid 30Ks. Fortunately it’s a short holiday week. And the headlines will be about SuBo and the AMAs.

    Unfortunately, the no news about Lee will probably now end. There was no news from the AMAs so it will fade by tomorrow. SuBo selling a ton is not news. I fear the story line will be about Idol — rather than Lee. And it is not good for any of the Idol alums to have a winner’s sales so low.

    I hope Kelly and Cook release a big albums because Idol needs a win right now.

  83. I was hoping Lee somehow was going to exceed the projections. Even though I am not a fan per se, I still wanted him to do well.

  84. koshka: I didn’t see any deals in my area. I thought it was strange.

    Now that you mention it I remember Kirsten mentioning Lee wasn’t even in the flyers she was looking at.

    I was asking because if Lee’s had been on sale anywhere we might be able to expect a better update from another store (or a worse one if he was on sale at Target because that was Target reporting). But it’s back to square one trying to figure what that update means. It seems like they change the reporting order at HDD every now and again.

  85. Is there any possibility that Adam’s acoustic EP will have better 1st week sales than Lee’s and/or Crystal’s 1st week sales?

  86. girlygirl
    I don’t think so outside a slew of articles when it was announced I don’t think RCA is going to do any promo for it. I doubt they will spring for an iTunes banner.

  87. I just read that Lee has a concert scheduled in Chicago at the Hard Rock. I wonder if this is radio station sponsored (WTMX, maybe?) because if it is, it could be huge for the song.

    SS is actually doing OK, it just needs a couple big markets to pick it up.

    If he could pick up that station before the freeze that would be great!

    I hope Kelly and Cook release a big albums because Idol needs a win right now.

    I think Kelly is established. The pressure would be on Cookie IMO. They need someone post season 5 to show some consistent selling power.

    Still, Cookie’s not coming to the spring (hopefully). Idol doesn’t need those kinds of bad headlines going into the new, Simon-less season.

  88. Is there any possibility that Adam’s acoustic EP will have better 1st week sales than Lee’s and/or Crystal’s 1st week sales?

    Almost none. It’s likely that an acoustic EP will attract a different/larger audience than the remix EPs, but not by that vast a difference, and those only sold a thousand copies or so in their first weeks.

  89. Lee’s album is not at either of the Walmarts in my town and not in the Target flyer, although our Target closed down last year. The album was on sale at Best Buy last week, but I don’t think it was in this week’s ad.

  90. Is there any possibility that Adam’s acoustic EP will have better 1st week sales than Lee’s and/or Crystal’s 1st week sales?

    I’m going to go out on a limb and say a big no to that. Without it being in stores on only physical copies on AO, I’ll guess Take Two might outsell the EP.

    ETA: And I think they should sell the EP on AO without the lithograph.

  91. girlygirl:
    11/22/2010 at 3:06 pm

    Is there any possibility that Adam’s acoustic EP will have better 1st week sales than Lee’s and/or Crystal’s 1st week sales?

    I don’t think so because Adam Acoustic Live! is only on AO.com as a CD — and digital release. If it was a CD released broadly at retail — maybe. And that seems like a stretch.

    But I do think that it is very possible that Crystal may outsell Lee.

    What is possible (and unfortunate) is that if Take Two has the Adam and Adam-Monte songs like Crawl Thru Fire, Glamorize and 15 Minutes of Fame, it could sell more that 30K and that will apparently be in retail. It is moving up rapidly on Amazon presale and there isn’t even a track list yet.

    ETA: I hope Adam fans buy enough of the EP to at least give it a week that it beats Take Two — but Take One was just demo recordings and sold over 50K units. Urgh I hate Hi-Fi!!!

  92. Q3:

    I don’t think so because Adam Acoustic Live! is only on AO.com as a CD — and digital release. If it was a CD released broadly at retail — maybe. And that seems like a stretch.

    Q3
    Although a physical copy is only available at AO in the press release they said it will be available at all online mp3 site (i.e. iTunes, Amazon)
    Or maybe it was RCAPromo on twitter or someone with RCA that said that…haha can’t remember exactly who.

  93. Is there any possibility that Adam’s acoustic EP will have better 1st week sales than Lee’s and/or Crystal’s 1st week sales?

    If only a tenth of the peeps following Adam on Twitter bought it, the number would be about double what it appears Lee’s album will do at this stage.

  94. Maybe the AMA’s should have booked Adam again. (And Gaga, and Eminem and etc.) Ratings are not good!

    The American Music Awards averaged a 4.3 rating with adults 18-49 between 8p-11p, down 22% from 2009?s 5.5 preliminary rating. Though 2009 pulled the best 18-49 numbers since 2004, last night’s ratings were also down vs. 2008?s 5.1 rating with adults 18-49. It was the American Music Awards lowest-rated telecast ever with adults 18-49.

    Advertisers pay a premium rate for 18-49 and are charged based on actual ratings. Could not happen to nicer folks!

  95. The line up should of been better. Have Gaga again or just hint Britney would be there would of brought people in droves. There was also a huge football game on at the same time. In fact it was their 4th largest viewership.

  96. 100% of the country stations have reported, 21 monitored adds for DYWS (36 combined)

    * WUSN-FM Chicago #3
    KBWF-FM San Francisco #4
    * KSCS-FM Dallas #5
    WMZQ-FM Washington, DC #9
    * KMLE-FM Phoenix #15
    KEEY-FM Minneapolis #16
    WFUS-FM Tampa #19
    * WQYK-FM Tampa #19
    WPOC-FM Baltimore #22
    KWJJ-FM Portland, OR #23
    WKKT-FM Country #24
    * KNCI-FM Sacramento #27
    KRTY-FM San Jose #35
    WWYZ-FM Hartford #50
    WSSL-FM Greenville, SC #58
    * WIVK-FM Knoxville #71
    WTGE-FM Baton Rouge #79
    KATM-FM Stockton, CA #82
    KIXZ-FM Spokane #91
    KZSN-FM Wichita #98
    WWQM-FM Madison, WI #99

    I think that’s a great adds week considering Aldean first single is still climbing the country charts.

  97. I’m a big fan of DYWS and think it has major HAC and even Pop potential.

  98. Lee’s CD is stocked in all the Walmarts that have music departments — it is supposed to be on the best seller/new release endcap. But I had trouble finding it because it was on the 5th row in my Walmart — at waist height, far below eye level — and only had two slots in the display. It was $11.88 at Walmart, $11.99 at Best Buy so not on sale at either store.

    Amazon has the preorder at $7.99 but moved the price up to $9.99 now. Barnes & Nobel has it as $9.59 on sale. Borders has it at $11.99.

    smeggingnuts:
    11/22/2010 at 3:21 pm

    Q3:

    I don’t think so because Adam Acoustic Live! is only on AO.com as a CD — and digital release. If it was a CD released broadly at retail — maybe. And that seems like a stretch.

    Q3
    Although a physical copy is only available at AO in the press release they said it will be available at all online mp3 site (i.e. iTunes, Amazon)
    Or maybe it was RCAPromo on twitter or someone with RCA that said that…haha can’t remember exactly who.

    I just worded it badly — my point was the CD will not be in stores, only on AO.com so it will not sell >40K. Yes, it will be available at all the major digital retailers.

    Hard to sell that many units of an album without retail distribution and promotion.

    Casual fans might see the EP on an endcap in Walmart or Target and pick it up, but only selling direct without any promotional push, you have to know it is coming out.

    RCA will not be promoting this EP, there will be no single from it on the radio, Adam doesn’t have any major US TV appearances scheduled, there is no mass media promotion.

    And even the artists with bit hits and lost of promotion are not selling that many album units right now.

  99. Damn, Kelly! If that girl ends up with a crossover country smash I will LOL for days. I mean really, just when it looked like she could be about to pass her peak at pop radio she pulls this one out of nowhere. Well, good luck Kelly and Jason!

  100. Kris just got added to the bills of two more radio station Jingle Balls, including 101.3 in SF. He now has 5 XMas radio station shows lined up

  101. I was just at my mall and looked at the FYE store. Found 2 KATA selling for $19.99 (who would pay that?!)! Adam’s cd was there too (5 copies) and was on sale for $14.99. I’m embarrassed to say that I forgot to look for Lee’s cd (oops!).

    I understand the economics of not putting more money into a KATA single, but then, why did they release AWM in the first place?? *still don’t understand*

  102. I’m a big fan of DYWS and think it has major HAC and even Pop potential.

    I’m not (Clarkson sounds great, but there’s no real build; it just wallops), but I agree about the major potential on HAC and Pop.

    I think this actually really helps RCA, because they can concentrate on Avril Lavigne and then come back to KC when DYWS has faded a bit. Those were the two acts who most needed to be differentiated next year.

  103. Each Project within Sony Music Entertainment — so there is a full set of financials for KATA, FYE, DCTA, etc. No different at any major label. The business and contractual obligations are based on project accounting.

    While I’ve no doubt Sony budgets for each project for functional and management purposes, business segment reporting requirements under Financial Accounting Standards Board rules would require roll ups by label in their financial reports. Budgets could be moved around between projects within business segments, but movements between business segments would show up as over/under budget in each segment. Unless financial reporting in the music business is different from other SEC reporting companies, which I doubt. So I don’t see this ability to willie nillie move around money from a Jive artist to an RCA artist just because they share some support staff. If Sony combines the labels and collapses the business segment that would be feasible, but it doesn’t appear that has happened as of yet.

  104. tinawina: Damn, Kelly! If that girl ends up with a crossover country smash I will LOL for days. I mean really, just when it looked like she could be about to pass her peak at pop radio she pulls this one out of nowhere. Well, good luck Kelly and Jason!

    It’s going to happen bigtime. Jason is one of the top 2 or 3 most consistent solo males on country radio lately and pretty much everything he’s putting out right now is going to make the top 10. DYWS is not country but it’s in that Bon Jovi power ballad area where it’ll play on country radio and appeal to HAC listeners too. It’s got smash written all over it and most people at Pulse think it’s going straight to #1. Good for Kelly :)

    It’s even going to get nominated for awards in Vocal Event categories next year but the problem is it’ll be up against Zac Brown Band+Alan Jackson on a GREAT song (which this is not) and Loretta Lynn/Miranda Lambert/Sheryl Crow covering Coal Miner’s Daughter.

  105. pineappletree:
    11/22/2010 at 3:30 pm

    The line up should of been better. Have Gaga again or just hint Britney would be there would of brought people in droves. There was also a huge football game on at the same time. In fact it was their 4th largest viewership.

    AMAs were up against a big football game last year, too. 2009 Sunday Night Football: Philadelphia at Chicago — game was close in the 4th Quarter. And NFL actually won the last 30 minutes. But the combination of a big NFL match-up and a weak line up for the AMAs just had a bad result.

    This year Sunday Night Football: Giants at Eagles — smashed the AMAs.

    Here are the Fast Affiliate Numbers — not adjusted for the NFL overrun — that will happen this afternoon but will not help the AMAs.

    http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2010/11/22/tv-ratings-sunday-eagles-fly-for-nbc-american-music-awards-down-from-2009/72962

    These are the kind of ratings that make network execs heads explode.

  106. Don’t think it means much but all access has a nice little write in on DYWS

    Jason Aldean has been cranking out hits left and right these days, and as soon as I heard the opening notes of his new duet with Kelly Clarkson, “Don’t You Wanna Stay,” I immediately said to myself, this is gonna be huge. HUGE! Seriously, I can’t think of a better song to showcase Jason’s softer side, and Kelly Clarkson can sing the phone book and I’d think it was the best thing since sliced bread and Cheetos. I don’t think I have been this excited about a ballad in a long time. Play it now and play it often. It’s a home run! Impacting now.

  107. Q3: We’ve been discussing the AMA ratings for the last few hours in Headlines if you want to head on over there. We covered the football ratings (this year’s were higher) as well as the issue of the lineup and how they affected the ratings.

  108. girlygirl: Has Jason Aldean had anything cross over formats before?

    No and IMHO that’s what he’s going for with DYWS. His album and especially his download sales have actually been really good considering he hasn’t had anything cross over already. He’s one of the few that are actually on track to increase sales album-to-album in the declining market.

  109. While I’ve no doubt Sony budgets for each project for functional and management purposes, business segment reporting requirements under Financial Accounting Standards Board rules would require roll ups by label in their financial reports. Budgets could be moved around between projects within business segments, but movements between business segments would show up as over/under budget in each segment. Unless financial reporting in the music business is different from other SEC reporting companies, which I doubt. So I don’t see this ability to willie nillie move around money from a Jive artist to an RCA artist just because they share some support staff. If Sony combines the labels and collapses the business segment that would be feasible, but it doesn’t appear that has happened as of yet.

    Wow progression. You expressed EXACTLY what was confusing to me but you said it in a way that was all professional sounding and clear and stuff. LOL

    ITA. Again, if they move them all into the same building and collapse websites (like the way the RCA label group website works now) and make everyone sign contracts that say Sony on them in the next year then this moving money between Jive and RCA thing make sense to me. Otherwise, I don’t see the how money is not all kept strictly separate.

  110. I know it’s still early but aren’t the first numbers for Pink Greatest Hits a little disapointing? IMO She was by far the best performer yesterday, she has a huge hit on the radio and two other very good new songs on the album.
    I have no idea how much a GH album is supposed to sell these days but this seems low to me.

    ETA: I realize it’s not directly idol related but she did write WWFM and MJ covered the AMA’s last night.

  111. Valentin432:
    11/22/2010 at 4:19 pm
    I know it’s still early but aren’t the first numbers for Pink Greatest Hits a little disapointing? IMO She was by far the best performer yesterday, she has a huge hit on the radio and two other very good new songs on the album.
    I have no idea how much a GH album is supposed to sell these days but this seems low to me.

    ETA: I realize it’s not directly idol related but she did write WWFM and MJ covered the AMA’s last night.

    Well it is a Greatest Hits album I am thinking that first week sales usually go to big fans. So i am guessing they already have all her albums. This probably leads to lower first week sales. I might pick up her greatests hits since I don’t own all her records though.

  112. Lee got an add in Seattle, market #13, that is his biggest market yet.

  113. I don’t know how well Greatest Hits albums sell. I already have Pink’s albums, so I just downloaded the new tracks separately. I love ‘Fucking Perfect’.

  114. I understand the economics of not putting more money into a KATA single, but then, why did they release AWM in the first place?? *still don’t understand*

    It could be as simple as giving Kris something to promote while he was out on tour, and giving radio stations something to play if he’s scheduled to do one of their Holiday concerts.

    There are arguments for and against Jive promoting another single. On the pro side, it could give Kris a radio presence, since for a lot of markets, LLWD is the only song that they have played. As we’ve seen with Archie, even with LLWD’s success, it’s going to be hard to get radio stations to play a single from the second album if Kris has been MIA (at least in the PDs’ eyes) since LLWD peaked. For me, the exposure out weights any expense of promoting the single. While its true that Kris hasn’t been bringing in a lot of money for Jive for several months, what’s the point of putting money into a second album, if its chances are going to be hurt by Kris lacking exposure, name recognition, and the backing of radio program directors.

  115. Another 2 adds for Lee, 5 total so far. Seattle is a great add!!

    KPLZ-FM Pub 0 Hot AC Seattle 19/RMG FisherBroadcasting 13
    WSJO-FM Pub 3 Hot AC Atlantic City, NJ Radio Group 141

  116. Listen to the overlapped version of LLWD — identical arrangement, identical backing track, identical key, identical lyrics and identical tempo. It’s the same — it’s a copy of someone else performance.

    If he wasn’t going to change the song, he shouldn’t have released it as his lead single. And my pitchfork is aimed squarely at the ones who blew it Jive/19R — they blew it big time. Just wait and see.

    This is Q3’s opinion about LLWD way back when and she couldn’t have been more wrong. Now this is what she says about AWM:

    JMHO — the song lacks a strong hook, is somewhat repetitive and really doesn’t fit with Pop radio. So that leaves HAC which is packed right not. 8 of the Top 20 HAC songs are hits from other formats. And there is a lot of light rock-pop music out now — Neon Trees, Lifehouse, Daughtry, Maroon 5, The Script, Train, etc.

    I think I’m seeing a pattern here :) Go Kris!

  117. Well it is a Greatest Hits album I am thinking that first week sales usually go to big fans. So i am guessing they already have all her albums.

    Yeah, the Foo Fighters Greatest Hits CD only sold 44,000 in its first week (about this time last year), and she’s on track to beat that easily. Granted, Wheels was a fantastically sleepy single and I don’t recall that it got that much airplay, whereas Raise Your Glass is doing pretty well.

    But I don’t think it’s underperforming, and these albums usually have legs throughout the shopping season. I have it on my wish list since I don’t have all her albums.

  118. That is super good news for Lee that The Mix is sponsoring the Hard Rock thing. This will get SS an add, I’m sure of it. And Mix sponored events usually get good crowds, plus it’s Lee’s hometown, and in the city. I think the song may get a surge going into the holidays.

  119. Yeah, the Foo Fighters Greatest Hits CD only sold 44,000 in its first week (about this time last year), and she’s on track to beat that easily. Granted, Wheels was a fantastically sleepy single and I don’t recall that it got that much airplay, whereas Raise Your Glass is doing pretty well.

    But I don’t think it’s underperforming, and these albums usually have legs throughout the shopping season. I have it on my wish list since I don’t have all her albums.

    Thanks, good to know

  120. I think Lee is in a good position. Even if the song wasn’t released late, it still would not have taken off until the end of January at the earliest. Despite some people’s fear that retailers will send back albums, which is something that rarely happens, I can see this song making an impact on HAC and then crossing over to top 40. While it won’t be quick enough in idol bubble time, RCA might be working under a different timeline, and with the purpose of establishing Lee as a longterm artist.

  121. Well KPLZ played the crap out of LLWD (at least it seemed to me) lol seemed everytime I turned to that station they played LLWD soon after. I am guessing they won’t be shy about playing Lee.

  122. Amazon has the preorder at $7.99 but moved the price up to $9.99 now.

    That makes no sense to me. They discounted the preorder, which was mostly mega-fans who would’ve paid $16 opening week, but moved the price back up in time for the the casual fans browsing the CD section on Amazon for extra stocking stuffers, who would’ve been potentially swayed by a low price point. I wonder if this is RCA negotiating the first week sale with Amazon, or if Amazon made that idiot decision themself.

  123. While I’ve no doubt Sony budgets for each project for functional and management purposes, business segment reporting requirements under Financial Accounting Standards Board rules would require roll ups by label in their financial reports. Budgets could be moved around between projects within business segments, but movements between business segments would show up as over/under budget in each segment. Unless financial reporting in the music business is different from other SEC reporting companies, which I doubt. So I don’t see this ability to willie nillie move around money from a Jive artist to an RCA artist just because they share some support staff. If Sony combines the labels and collapses the business segment that would be feasible, but it doesn’t appear that has happened as of yet.

    I must be very thick — I do not understand how SEC financial reporting is related to the question, “If promoting AWM is a sensible business investment?” Promoting AWM to radio does not seem to have a clear payback potential and that has nothing to do with internal financial reporting that has to do with marketplace reality.

    A any major label, promotional budgets are under constant review and sometimes cut, sometimes increased — based on sales potential. If Jive wanted to promote AWM to radio and spend $300,000 they would need incremental promotional money at this point. And IMO it would be very difficult to build a case for that. How would it pay off?

    As far as I know, there is no SEC requirement that says a company can’t….

    1. Cut budgets for a project.
    2. Increase budgets for a project.
    3. Make investment allocations across divisions of a large multinational company.

    The SEC regs just are primarily concerned with financial reporting integrity and providing transparency to investors/shareholders — not with limiting the ability of a company to made sound financial decisions.

    I understand that fans want Jive to promote AWM but I just do not see any sign of that happening and I couldn’t build a business case for it. Note: I can’t build a business case for why Adam should get another single in the US either — and that is with a couple new products to promote — the EP and DVD plus the album. But at least RCA Ed told fans that there would be no more singles from FYE.

    Frankly, the frustrating part to me is that Jive is saying nothing about Archie or Kris. Looks like they just gave up on Archie’s album. And AWM is only sort of released to radio. If they aren’t going to promote a song, why the charade?

    But my biggest frustration is for Lee. He won Idol and deserved a winner’s promotion package and did not get it. SS is a fine song and it is just not getting aggressive support from RCA. Not over yet but looks more unlikely every day.

  124. tripp_ncwy—are we talking about the same concert? Is Kris playing the Hard Rock in Chicago with Lee? This is the show sponsored by WTMX.

    I think if Lee could get an add in Chicago that could be a turning point for the song.

  125. Q3, she’s talking about the stuff that got deleted, where you assert that the decision to spend more money on Kris is pulled from the same pot of money for all artists at RCA/Jive, that there is no accounting difference between labels. That would be an extremely odd business practice which is why it keeps getting questioned IMO. Again, until the labels really get collapsed in ways we can see, that part seems odd.

    I actually agree with you that extending Kris’ budget for AWM makes little financial sense.

    I think Lee is in a good position. Even if the song wasn’t released late, it still would not have taken off until the end of January at the earliest. Despite some people’s fear that retailers will send back albums, which is something that rarely happens, I can see this song making an impact on HAC and then crossing over to top 40. While it won’t be quick enough in idol bubble time, RCA might be working under a different timeline, and with the purpose of establishing Lee as a longterm artist.

    I don’t think that’s true. He could have been set up to take off sooner than the end of January. And “idol bubble” or no, he’s not a typical artist. He’s IS from the biggest music platform in the world and it taking off with way more exposure, promo and name recognition than a regular new artist. Right now he’s looking a lot like Blake Lewis…. low album sales, so so single performance. RCA does NOT have a history of patience with Idol alums under these circumstances.

    Of course it is possible RCA is prepared to play the long game but I’m not calling that even close to a guarantee. I think he needs to show some real signs that this song is going to catch on in a big way or he might be in trouble IMO. He’s gaining adds and spins steadily so there’s hope, but I really don’t think its an Idol bubble thing to raise the question. That is real IMO.

    Now a top 13 add is good news, and a Chicago add (and support) would be golden. I want to see more stuff like that over the next few weeks, frankly.

  126. tripp_ncwy—are we talking about the same concert? Is Kris playing the Hard Rock in Chicago with Lee?

    Your right, I was thinking about the wrong concert.

  127. smeggingnuts:
    11/22/2010 at 4:57 pm
    Well KPLZ played the crap out of LLWD (at least it seemed to me) lol seemed everytime I turned to that station they played LLWD soon after. I am guessing they won’t be shy about playing Lee.

    They did give it a lot of support, but then wouldn’t even give TT a test spin, which drove me crazy, lol. I’m working on them for AWM, tho. It’s nice they added Lee today, it’s a really good add for him.

  128. I hope Kelly and Cook release a big albums because Idol needs a win right now.

    I think Kelly is established. The pressure would be on Cookie IMO. They need someone post season 5 to show some consistent selling power.

    I agree. By most standards, Fantasia is doing great this era, but she’s from the “early seasons”, so how she or Kelly do now won’t help reverse the meme that Idol cannot produce stars anymore. Although, I’m wondering/slightly concerned about the bar that Idol fans will set for Cook for his second album. I mean, looking at last week’s BB numbers, Fantasia’s been doing GREAT in terms of maintaining a consistently decent ranking on the BB200 chart for months, and yet, she JUST cracked 300K total. I mean, I hope fans aren’t expecting David to open at 280K again, because quite honestly, that is a ridiculous bar to meet at this point.

  129. I don’t think anyone will expect David Cook to open above 200K. I do think he could open at 100K, at least. He had/has a big Idol fanbase, and he did a LOT of touring.

  130. don’t think anyone will expect David Cook to open above 200K. I do think he could open at 100K, at least.

    If he opens at 100K I will faint. In the Spring at that? If he pulls 60-80K I will be thrilled beyond belief. YMMV.

    I think a lot depends on how his lead single is doing, what kind of press/promo he’s getting, and if he does an Idol performance.

  131. AWM is #61 on Hot AC chart this week, up from #63 spot last week. If it can do that on no add date and little evidence of the label promoting it, it makes sense to me to see how it would do if Jive actually did push it. Of course, I’m not an accountant or a label exec

  132. OK, I forgot for a minute that David is releasing in the spring. Let me change that to 75K. :)

  133. If he opens at 100K I will faint. In the Spring at that? If he pulls 60-80K I will be thrilled beyond belief. YMMV.

    I tend to know nothin’ about nothin’, but I’d tend to agree. I mean, doesn’t 60-80K put you at/near the top 5 of the BB200 most weeks in the Spring?

  134. Elliegrll:
    11/22/2010 at 4:52 pm

    I think Lee is in a good position. Even if the song wasn’t released late, it still would not have taken off until the end of January at the earliest. Despite some people’s fear that retailers will send back albums, which is something that rarely happens, I can see this song making an impact on HAC and then crossing over to top 40. While it won’t be quick enough in idol bubble time, RCA might be working under a different timeline, and with the purpose of establishing Lee as a longterm artist.

    I think Lee’s CD will be in retail for a while but it depends on if they sell and trade terms how long they stay. Retailers return records to vendors all the time.

    But I do not believe Lee is in a good position.

    Lee is certainly going to set the new record for the lowest Idol debut album sales week #1 for any winner. And it looks like he will sell less than the two lowest selling runners-up:
    Justin Guarini 57,000
    Diana DeGarmo 47,000

    He doesn’t have a hit single. He is getting less than 500 spins a week. His video debuted in medium rotation on VH1 (lowest level).

    There is no sign that RCA has any intention to do any major promotion for SS.

    I don’t think any Sony label has worked to establish an Idol alum artist for the longterm unless they sold in the short term. (In fact they have dropped every Idol alum whose album sold less than 758K in the US.)

    And I do not think that letting an album be released without proper support does anything more than set it up for dismal results. If they wanted to wait until January to promote this album, they should have released it in January.

    Crystal will be releasing soon. Then Kelly and Cook. Lee had no Idol competition this fall and SS only had Idol songs that had been around a long time on the HAC chart. It will only be harder in January than it was in November.

  135. Depends on who else will be releasing albums at the same time as David C. If he could get 100K first week, that would be great. I don’t know how realistic it is.

  136. CindyM that article is what I am afraid will be the first of many that will say Lee’s low sales — following Kris’ sales last year = end of Idol phenom. Idol will have to come back with an aggressive pro-active PR campaign to say that Idol is new and improved. It is not going to be pretty.

    ETA: On Cook’s album — I want to hear some of it before I guess but anything north of 50K in Spring 2011 will be a big week. A lot will depend on the lead single and if he gets Pop radio airplay.

  137. I wanted to mention that in a couple of his most recent interviews, Kris has been talking about getting his 2nd album out this spring. Now, I got a bunch of grief on here when I said that in my opinion, it was unlikely Adam could get his 2nd album out before the summer unless he really rushed it. I’m going to say the same thing about Kris — July/August is the earliest I would expect it unless they really rushed it out.

  138. CindyM that article is what I am afraid will be the first of many that will say Lee’s low sales — following Kris’ sales last year = end of Idol phenom. Idol will have to come back with an aggressive pro-active PR campaign to say that Idol is new and improved. It is not going to be pretty.

    A quick Google search will show that this is not the first time that multiple journalists have predicted the end of AI, nor is it the first time that they have used sales numbers to back up their opinions.

  139. A quick Google search will show that this is not the first time that multiple journalists have predicted the end of AI, nor is it the first time that they have used sales numbers to back up their opinions.

    Yes, I know. It just that the sales number will be even lower than lowered expectations had it. And it is the first time that it has been the same year that….

    1. There is no Simon on Idol. But will be a Simon on X-Factor US.
    Plus Paula will be back with her show.

    2. Glee is taking over Tuesday night and is being promoted on radio industry sites. And setting iTunes records.

    3. Idol was not the solid #1 show last season — first time since AI3 that happened.

    4. DWTS is making a mockery of fan-voted talent competitions.

    This time it might actually be true. And when something as big as Idol falls, there will be a loud thud.

    But whatever else — this story is not good for Lee or for Idol.

  140. Lee’s CD is stocked in all the Walmarts that have music departments — it is supposed to be on the best seller/new release endcap.

    Not mine. They haven’t stocked any Idols except Carrie for the past two years, although they do have Paula Abdul’s!

  141. And “idol bubble” or no, he’s not a typical artist. He’s IS from the biggest music platform in the world and it taking off with way more exposure, promo and name recognition than a regular new artist.

    Being on AI doesn’t seem to mean as much to PDs as it once did. Aside from the support from Z100, which probably had more to do with Jive pulling strings than Z100 wanting to play the new AI winner, LLWD seemed to move up the charts on its own.

  142. Q3, she’s talking about the stuff that got deleted, where you assert that the decision to spend more money on Kris is pulled from the same pot of money for all artists at RCA/Jive, that there is no accounting difference between labels. That would be an extremely odd business practice which is why it keeps getting questioned IMO. Again, until the labels really get collapsed in ways we can see, that part seems odd.

    It is indeed tinawina. If we keep tag teaming this we’ll wrestle it to the ground eventually lol. For the record, I never expected Jive to spend much (or anything really) promoting AWM given where KATA is in the record cycle. I’m just being a pedantic accounting type as it relates to how the budgeting and financial accounting process works in large publically held multibusiness segment companies, which is not as was presented in the OP.

    I would be flabergasted if Cook sells 100k his first week. Given how long he’s been out of sight, that his sound isn’t what is hot right now, and the overall dismal state of record sales anything north of 50k would be a pleasant surprise for me. I’d love to be wrong though!

  143. Yes, I know. It just that the sales number will be even lower than lowered expectations had it. And it is the first time that it has been the same year that….

    What Jordin sold had no impact on whether or not people wanted to buy David Cook’s music, and the same with Archie. Crystal and Lee’s numbers are all about what they each did last season (as well as the health of the current market). The season 10 contestants and the producers will have more of a say in how well the season ten idols do, than whatever has happened or will happen to Lee and Crystal.

  144. Some of the very same naysayers who were calling Kris’s LLWD a major failboat this time last year are saying the same things about Lee and SS this year. I have no crystal ball but I think SS is a very catchy song. I can definitely see it having great success if it is promoted properly. I am a bit worried about AWM because it should have been released as a summer song and I don’t know if it will be able to take off but I know that whether or not it does Kris will be fine. He may not be a megastar but I don’t think he’ll be back in Arkansas selling shoes anytime soon. I really feel for Lee and I hope that he takes a page from Kris’s book and stays away from Idol blogs and Twitter for a few months. The constant negativity just isn’t something he needs to deal with when he is trying his best to make it in this business.

  145. Well, I think Cook better sell at least 50K, even in the spring (and I say this as fan). Debuting at 280K has to mean something, even if it was a lot of Idol fan purchases, and I can’t imagine a scenario where he is opening with Lee-like numbers.

  146. I think most sane DC fans have an idea what to expect and understand the law of diminishing returns. Of course 287,000 or 100,000 isn’t happening BUT I’m starting to think if RCA gets moving on a decent lead single, and an Idol performance/launch he may actually sell more than Lee’s first week, er not that’s saying much but still. He was a pretty popular winner loved by many AI fans. Again like I said I stand by this only if he gets an Idol performance. I think he just needs the proper re-launch, a good first single and to reconnect with fans. I’m hoping his 3 TOP 10 streak at HAC will help him with early airplay.

  147. I really feel for Lee and I hope that he takes a page from Kris’s book and stays away from Idol blogs and Twitter for a few months.

    Nobody should be going to idol blogs, but I’m all for them using twitter to promote themselves. Lee doesn’t have to check his @replies, but I would advise him to keep his followers updated on what he is doing, and to use twitter to show people a different side of his personality. He needs to establish boundaries on twitter, meaning nobody needs to have access to his friends and family, or know his every move, but there is a right way to use twitter, youtube, facebook, and other networking sites in order to remain connected with people who are interested in him. Many people in radio and other media outlets will also keep an eye on what he’s saying on twitter.

  148. Debuting at 280K has to mean something, even if it was a lot of Idol fan purchases

    I’m not sure we can really compare opening week sales coming straight off massive months long national television exposure to opening week sales for a sophomore record. It takes a while for people to become aware there is new music available, let alone to decide to pony up and buy it.

    Daughtry’s Leave This Town opened with 269k, about 6% of the total sales of their freshman record. If DCTR2 opens with 6% of DCTR’s total sales, that would be an opening week of about 78k. Then factor in the overall decline in music sales since Leave This Town was released and you get somewhere in the neighborhood of 65-70k.

  149. LOL that “If I Had You” finally got added by the Denver HAC station…an autoadd and they played it 21 times last week. That is so weird to me.

    * KALC-FM Pub 21 Hot AC Denver 19/RMG Entercom 20 11/22/2010 3:17:00 PM

  150. I’m not sure we can really compare opening week sales coming straight off massive months long national television exposure to opening week sales for a sophomore record.

    Yeah, I think to have any sort of reasonable hopes about Cook’s album… that needs to be considered. Especially since he’s been out of the picture for a while and the overall decline in album sales. I hope he gets to premier his new stuff on Idol; that would be a huge help.

  151. Q3, she’s talking about the stuff that got deleted, where you assert that the decision to spend more money on Kris is pulled from the same pot of money for all artists at RCA/Jive, that there is no accounting difference between labels.

    Once again, a debate over a trivial point has derailed the main point which may be difficult to deal with.

    Each major investment that a major label makes in a completed project must have a reasonable chance of generating incremental revenue and operating profit. US radio promotion is very expensive.

    I do not believe that Jive will invest any additional money in promoting KATA. Others believe they will, and specifically that they will promote AWM as the third single. I am not being negative, I am being realistic. I do not see how it could be a profitable decision.

    Similarly, I know that RCA will not invest any additional money in promoting singles from FYE because RCA posted that and Adam has said the same thing. They will release a couple of extra things for fans — Adam Acoustic Live! and the GNT DVD and the project is done. On to Adam #2.

    Being on AI doesn’t seem to mean as much to PDs as it once did. Aside from the support from Z100, which probably had more to do with Jive pulling strings than Z100 wanting to play the new AI winner, LLWD seemed to move up the charts on its own.

    It may have seemed to work it’s way up on its own but it did not. Z100 got a Kris Jingle Ball appearance and a contest sponsorship, plus there were LLWD ads on the website. The field team worked LLWD really hard and Jive aggressively supported that song to the industry.

    SS is getting some support but not much. And with an aggressive push this song could be a hit.

    AWM is being left to make it on its own with whatever Kris can do to support it. It doesn’t even have an add date. And unless Jive promotes it, it doesn’t have much of a chance to break thru on radio.

  152. Being on AI doesn’t seem to mean as much to PDs as it once did. Aside from the support from Z100, which probably had more to do with Jive pulling strings than Z100 wanting to play the new AI winner, LLWD seemed to move up the charts on its own.

    That’s all true. I don’t think being from AI has had much cache with PDs for a long time, actually. But that’s not the point. What’s up for debate here is at what point will RCA call over? And I think the problem here is that they have NO history of having a whole lot of patience with Idols. If Lee opens dismally low he’s in a very similar place to other idols on RCA who got dropped, like Kat, Blake, etc. Unless that song starts looking like a hit fairly quickly, the situation makes me nervous.

    What Jordin sold had no impact on whether or not people wanted to buy David Cook’s music, and the same with Archie. Crystal and Lee’s numbers are all about what they each did last season (as well as the health of the current market). The season 10 contestants and the producers will have more of a say in how well the season ten idols do, than whatever has happened or will happen to Lee and Crystal.

    Again, true, but that has nothing to do with what the press will write and the fact that this is the first season without Simon. They don’t need this kind of “idol is over” press right now.

    Once again, a debate over a trivial point has derailed the main point which may be difficult to deal with.

    What’s difficult to deal with? We both agreed with that part. I actually argued the very same thing with DC didn’t get another single after CBTM.

  153. That’s kind of what I was getting at, progression, which is why I said I believe he needs to open above 50K. Of course, who knows what will happen.

  154. Monitored Adds Today:

    Adam Lambert If I Had You – 1 HAC
    Daughtry – Life After You – 1 Smooth Ac (What’s that??)
    Daughtry – September – 4 total, 3 AC, 1 Smooth AC
    David Archuleta – Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas – 9 AC
    Jason Aldean/Kelly Clarkson – Don’t You Wanna Stay 25 total – 5 Canadian Country, 20 Country
    Jason Castro – You Are – 3 Christian AC
    Lee DeWyze – Sweet Serendipity – 5 HAC

  155. Yeah, I think to have any sort of reasonable hopes about Cook’s album… that needs to be considered. Especially since he’s been out of the picture for a while and the overall decline in album sales. I hope he gets to premier his new stuff on Idol; that would be a huge help.

    David Cook seems to have keep a solid fanbase even though he has been out of the picture. He also had such high awareness a couple of years ago, that when he is back promoting his new album he will get coverage and people will remember him.

    I hope he gets a nice slot on Idol + Radio + some other great promotional opportunities. With a good relaunch (and some good music), I think his sales will be really strong.

    In the end, it will all come down to the recorded music for Cook. If his fans like it, he will be golden! He is great in interviews and TV performances, and he is well liked by many in the media.

  156. I agree that a 100k opening week for Cook’s sophomore release is way too optimistic. He’s not releasing during the holidays, he likely won’t have the same level of promo leading up to his release date, and who knows how well his lead single will perform. Things have changed since DCTR was released. If album #2 were to sell 70-80k, I’d be over the moon, but I have to keep my expectations in check.

  157. which may be difficult to deal with.

    Well, we’ll struggle along somehow. Ahem.

    What’s up for debate here is at what point will RCA call over? And I think the problem here is that they have NO history of having a whole lot of patience with Idols

    I agree. And it’s possible they’ll have even less patience now than they have in the past, given Sony has severed it’s relationship with AI and is moving on to X-Factor. They don’t have any incentive to tolerate money losing artists for the sake of a larger relationship.

    That’s kind of what I was getting at, progression, which is why I said I believe he needs to open above 50K.

    Yeah, 50k might be a tad on the low side, but then I get to be pleasantly surprised instead of disappointed, lol.

  158. CindyM:
    David Archuleta – Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas – 9 AC

    I’m happy too see Archie at least getting adds for something even if it isn’t his latest single.

  159. Just as one random example, I was a huge Cook fan during his Idol run, couldn’t wait to get his album and see him in concert. I did go ahead and pre-order the album, but was pretty much disappointed with it and didn’t listen to it for very long. And I never went to see him in concert. I’m taking a big wait and see attitude with the next one. I imagine I’m not the only one, so he definitely doesn’t have the base he used to. If he comes out with good material that does justice to his vocal talent, though, I’ll be right back there.

  160. Yeah, 50k might be a tad on the low side, but then I get to be pleasantly surprised instead of disappointed, lol.

    Haha, I’m in the same boat. I’m a pessimist at heart, after all ;)

    And I never went to see him in concert.

    Aww, JMatt, you missed out! He’s fantastic live. Go catch him next time, I think you’ll remember why you liked him so much :)

    But you’re right, I imagine there are plenty of people in your boat. And there are also folks who have moved on to other Idols, it just happens that way.

  161. But you’re right, I imagine there are plenty of people in your boat. And there are also folks who have moved on to other Idols, it just happens that way.

    It happens to all idol alums, which is why the focus should never be about just pleasing the hardcore AI fans.

  162. Why shouldn’t Lee read his @ replies? Everytime I check his fans are giving him overwhelming love. Blogs on the other hand I agree with to stay away.

    I still say the difference between now and then with RCA is they must have recalibrated expectations and budgeted for this type of debut from Lee. If everyone on the Idol blog network knew he wasn’t going to sell a lot then why would the label assume he would? We don’t know what those expectations are and he may or may not be meeting them. To me it looks like they are investing in HAC and I still see positive movement there.

  163. HDD’s very early prediction for this week’s album sales:

    KANYE AND NICKI BATTLE: Kanye West’s critically acclaimed Roc-A-Fella/IDJ album My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy and touted newcomer Nicki Minaj’s long-awaited Cash Money/Universal Motown debut, Pink Friday, both hit the street today and should duke it out for #1 on the HITS chart a week from tomorrow, with totals that could have a “4” in front of it. Stay tuned as these two R&B giants go for the roses. (11/22p)

    I completely disagree that contestants shouldn’t try to please Idol fans. Success is keeping your Idol fans and building on that with new fans.

  164. I wonder when did Niki Minaj become a R&B giant.

    I completely disagree that contestants shouldn’t try to please Idol fans. Success is keeping your Idol fans and building on that with new fans.

    I used the word “just”, but honestly, the main focus should be on releasing music that illustrates who the artist is, and not who idol fans may think he or she is. The starting point should not be “let’s do something that idol fans will like.” or “let’s make music that will be played on stations that idol fans listen to.” An artist can’t be what every idol fan wants. If right after the season ended, we asked idol fans to describe their favorites music, and tell us what genre they are in, we would get so many different answers. For idol fans it is more about the artist than the music, but after AI, the music should be the focus.

  165. I still say the difference between now and then with RCA is they must have recalibrated expectations and budgeted for this type of debut from Lee. If everyone on the Idol blog network knew he wasn’t going to sell a lot then why would the label assume he would? We don’t know what those expectations are and he may or may not be meeting them. To me it looks like they are investing in HAC and I still see positive movement there.

    I don’t know about Lee’s @replies, I was mainly thinking about the idiots who used to, and to some extent still do, contact Kris.

    I agree with you regarding RCA. Blake’s biggest issue wasn’t how much he sold, it was how he mistreated the people who he worked with at Arista and 19. For some reason he thought that he was more important and irreplaceable than he was, so both 19 and Arista cut their ties with him. With most of the people who have been released, the two main problems have been that they have not been able to work with the people at the label (Diana Degarmo, Taylor Hicks, Katherine McPhee ) or the label thought they were’t marketable (Taylor again). If RCA thinks that Lee is marketable then they will continue to work with him, so that they can connect him with people who will buy his music.

  166. I was a huge Cook fan during his Idol run, couldn’t wait to get his album and see him in concert. I did go ahead and pre-order the album, but was pretty much disappointed with it and didn’t listen to it for very long. And I never went to see him in concert. I’m taking a big wait and see attitude with the next one. I imagine I’m not the only one

    That is me to a tee. Cook is the first idol I ever voted for and I voted for all four hours on the night of the finale. I was really disappointed in his album. I really like Cook and want to love his next album, but I too am taking a wait and see attitude.

  167. I don’t know about Lee’s @replies, I was mainly thinking about the idiots who used to, and to some extent still do, contact Kris.

    Kris isn’t the only idol who gets nasty things tweeted to him. But really, I think the positive and supportive ones outweigh the negative ones for all idols. I think Lee should check his replies because he would be missing out on some fun fan interaction if he didn’t. He will learn to ignore the negative stuff just like Kris, Adam, etc.

  168. David Cooks coronation song was a huge hit. He sang it very well and everyone fell in love with it and with him. His album however, was much different than that coronation song. DC himself said that song was not a representation of what his music would be like. I strongly believe that coronation song and how well he sang it gave him a firm foothold on how well his album sold. Neither Kris or Lee had that.

  169. I’m a big fan of DYWS and think it has major HAC and even Pop potential.

    I’m not (Clarkson sounds great, but there’s no real build; it just wallops)

    I thought I was the only one who had that same opinion. I do like Kelly but not that song.

    That is me to a tee. Cook is the first idol I ever voted for and I voted for all four hours on the night of the finale. I was really disappointed in his album. I really like Cook and want to love his next album, but I too am taking a wait and see attitude.

    Did you crawl in my brain, lol? I was so excited to get David’s album; I loved him on the show more than Daughtry and was so happy with Daughtry’s album- I thought it would be the same with Cook.

    Daughtry and Danny Gokey have been the only Idols that surpassed my expectations on the post Idol debut album.

    Kris isn’t the only idol who gets nasty things tweeted to him.

    It’s pretty upsetting when someone you respect and like gets some disgusting hate tweets; and even more disturbing when those who tweet that garbage have gravatars of other Idols. But you are right that the positive do outweigh the negative by far and can help provide feedback and confidence for Idols.

  170. DC himself said that song was not a representation of what his music would be like.

    Heh, yes, and he refuses to perform it… ever.

    But it is all in vain ’cause the Magic Rainbow? That bad boy is never going to die. It’s magic and all that, after all.

  171. I hope Lee reads his Twitter @replies — they are almost 100% positive. And most of what is posted on Idol blogs is not negative. Can’t see any reason for Lee to avoid either.

    I still say the difference between now and then with RCA is they must have recalibrated expectations and budgeted for this type of debut from Lee. If everyone on the Idol blog network knew he wasn’t going to sell a lot then why would the label assume he would? We don’t know what those expectations are and he may or may not be meeting them. To me it looks like they are investing in HAC and I still see positive movement there.

    I agree that RCA probably knew that the sales potential for Lee was lower than Cook and maybe Kris before the album was done.
    Plus, RCA has viability to retail orders and to presale information — so they had much more info about market demand than any of us had.

    And RCA may still have some promotional plan that will drive album sales. We’ll see. But the first week’s sales are usually a large percentage of total album sales — so this will now be an uphill battle — in a very tough market.

  172. I find it very difficult to believe that David sold over 200K cds during his debut week based on the coronation song. I don’t think anyone who watched that season felt that it was the type of song that would be on David’s album.

  173. I find it very difficult to believe that David sold over 200K cds during his debut week based on the coronation song.

    And I’d argue that TOML was a hit but not a “huge hit”. It didn’t reach as high as Light On, LLWD, WWFM did on the pop or HAC charts, and it hasn’t sold more than LLWD or WWFM. Huge hit singles regularly go multiplatinum, and TOML is what, somewhere around 1.35mill last we heard? And it was relegated to AC radioplay by the time the album dropped. I just can’t see that TOML was the MAIN source of David’s debut numbers.

  174. I have no doubt TOML contributed to some of the albums success, but it didn’t keep the album selling for nearly a year, he didn’t sell nearly a million downloads in 4 days due to TOML, when he got huge boosts when he returned to Idol it had little to do with TOML. Kris had a POP Top 10 hit. He may not have had anything to give him big first week sales but there was nothing from stopping his album from improving sales as the weeks went by. Lee the jury is still out on.

  175. I do think that the “last impression” an idol give has a huge impact on the corronation single sales. That’s the last image the audience keeps in mind. Kelly singing “A Moment Like This”, Fantasia perfomance of “I Believe” and David singing the Rainbow song are the three best winning moment in the 9 AI seasons IMO.
    It could also impact in some ways the first album sales, for instance the fact that Clay finished his run with arguably his best performance (“Bridge Over Troubled Water”) must have added to the expectations around his album.

  176. why shouldn’t Lee read his @replies? He probably has very little negative stuff tweeted to him, and he should be able to learn how to ignore what little he may get. I know Kris stopped reading his for awhile for 2 reasons: (1) the nasty S8 fan war crap that got sent to him and (2) the nasty remarks people tweeted him about his wife. Lee doesn’t have a wife for people to hate on, and there haven’t really been any S9 fan wars, so his @replies are probably all sunshine & rainbows compared to what some of the other Idols (not just Kris) on twitter get

  177. I think Cook’s coronation song being a huge hit really helped his early album sales, but it wouldn’t have gone platinum if that’s all he had had to build on.

    Would Kris’ and/or Lee’s album sales be better if their coronation single had been as popular as Cook’s? Yeah, probably in terms of their 1st week sales, but not necessarily over the long term.

  178. And I’d argue that TOML was a hit but not a “huge hit”. It didn’t reach as high as Light On, LLWD, WWFM did on the pop or HAC charts, and it hasn’t sold more than LLWD or WWFM. Huge hit singles regularly go multiplatinum, and TOML is what, somewhere around 1.35mill last we heard? And it was relegated to AC radioplay by the time the album dropped. I just can’t see that TOML was the MAIN source of David’s debut numbers.

    Don’t get me wrong, it’s a hit, especially a radio hit. Flash in the pan singles aren’t still getting as many spins as that song is getting two years after it was released. I just don’t think anyone who watched AI felt like it was the type of song that represented the music that they expected to hear from David.

    Would Kris’ and/or Lee’s album sales be better if their coronation single had been as popular as Cook’s? Yeah, probably in terms of their 1st week sales, but not necessarily over the long term.

    I think most AI fans only care about the coronation song because it reminds them of everything their favorite went through to win. I love “I Believe”, but I’ve realized that it’s only because I can never forget all of the emotion that Fantasia put into it on the finale night.

    But, I do think the coronation song could have helped expose David to people who weren’t fans of AI, and I guess they could have believed that it was the type of music that David would be making.

  179. Kris had a POP Top 10 hit. He may not have had anything to give him big first week sales but there was nothing from stopping his album from improving sales as the weeks went by

    Nothing, except 19’s failure to capitalize on LLWD’s success, and a bunch of BS that was spread by some in the media that 19 didn’t even try to stop or counter.

    The cr#p that Kris had to deal with wouldn’t have even had an impact if 19, and yes, Kris too, had done a better job of taking advantage of what happened with LLWD. And the whole thing was made worse by Jive releasing The Truth, which was a move that pretty much killed any chance that the album had.

  180. What BS was spread by the media after LLWD? I don’t remember anything at all – maybe I just forgot.

  181. if 19, and yes, Kris too, had done a better job of taking advantage of what happened with LLWD

    .

    I keep seeing this argument that 19 and/or kris and/or jive failed to capitalize on the success of LLWD but, and maybe I’m dense, I really don’t understand what that means in the real world? Would it have been good for kris to have performed llwd on idol? sure (but then he likely would not have been able to debut his new single on the finale or wouldn’t have done the charity single). was the truth an abominable choice for a follow up single, absolutely. But other than that, what else should have been done that wasn’t done? He had already sung llwd on all of the late night and day time talk shows. He did a slew of jingle balls. He did lots of spring fling type radio shows. What else should tptb or kris have done to “take advantage” of LLWD? I’m just not sure what other types of promo was out there for him to do that is regularly done by other artists in his position.

  182. Kris got the same typical promos all Idol winners get. Jive’s history is to push the 1st single and than they are done. They did their job by sending Kris to a whole lot of radio gigs and JJ balls. The 2nd song flopped. It is unlikely they are going to push a 3rd single after his album has been off the charts for months. The fact that Kris made a homemade video for his fans tells me that jive is done. The appearances he is doing now is to help keep him in the public eye.
    Also getting a 2nd album from Jive doesn’t mean they plan to push that either (see David A). Jive is done with Idols. JMO.

  183. Q3:
    I agree that RCA probably knew that the sales potential for Lee was lower than Cook and maybe Kris before the album was done.

    This may be a little cold and hard, but I really wonder if RCA would have even signed Lee except for the contractual obligation Sony had to Idol at the time. If there has been any real excitement on their part at having Lee on board, I haven’t sensed it. It could be they are just going through the motions because they have to and long ago determined there’s little or no potential for making money from Lee or his album.

  184. Didn’t Cook also benefit from having his album up for pre-sale almost immediately after the AI finale? Is that right? Things are starting to come back to me, lol. That was a hugely emotional finale, getting that presale in place so quickly was a brilliant move.

    I do know several people who were caught completely off-guard by Cook’s album. It was NOT what they were expecting from him. Granted, in any other reality these two people would not have been David Cook fans in the first place (one was my son’s second grade teacher who is in her 50’s and a country fan, Declaration was too “hard rock” for her, lol).

  185. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a hit, especially a radio hit. Flash in the pan singles aren’t still getting as many spins as that song is getting two years after it was released. I just don’t think anyone who watched AI felt like it was the type of song that represented the music that they expected to hear from David.

    No, I didn’t get you wrong– I got your point that TOML didn’t represent him and that it sold to Idol fans who wouldn’t otherwise like his post-Idol stuff. I was contending the point that TOML was a “huge hit”. It wasn’t. Yeah, it’s getting radioplay two years after it was released over “flash in the pan singles”. But the thing is, those flash in the pan pop hit singles probably sold 3 million downloads and got 10 times as many audience impressions in the several months they were top 5 on CHR than TOML gets with a year of airplay on AC. It wasn’t ubiquitous the summer it came out the way California Girls was this past summer. California Girls isn’t the type of song to be getting recurrent plays on AC for the next two years, but I’d argue it’s the bigger hit. That’s all I’m saying. Sounds like people were insisting that it was this huge hit responsible for most if not all David’s debut album numbers, and I just don’t see it. It’s was big on an aging format that rarely pushes albums. It was an above average coronation single that helped sell some albums the first week. Not 280K, or the eventual million albums.

    David’s album went up as an Amazon preorder right after the finale. The iTunes preorder went up a week or two early like every other album. Kris had that weird iTunes pass thing that went up right after the finale. And I think Kris, Adam, Lee all had Amazon preorders go up at least a month ahead of drop date, right?

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