HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Nov-26-Dec-2

With 55.94% of reports in, Alicia Keys is on her way to her third album (out of 5) that debuts at the top of the BB200. Just like Jack Frost, nipping at her heels is the biggest Christmas album of the season from Rod Stewart. There are 4 Christmas albums in the top 10 including the Christmas album of the season last year from Michael Buble (and people wonder why artists put out these Christmas albums full of covers. Rod probably croaked out his songs in a day or two and he’s going to make major coin this season and be revived for the next 3 or so. Nice work if you can get it). Lady Antebellum (whose female member famously did not make it on Idol) and Voice Judge Blake Shelton have Christmas albums at 9 and 10.

Taylor Swift continues to sell strongly at 3 (how many stockings will contain her CD this year?) while One Direction are defying pundits and not having a total collapse in sales after their big first week are at 5 (how many stockings will contain Taylor and 1Ds CD this year?). One Direction, from the 7 season of the UK X-Factor also have their previous album (released earlier in 2012) on the chart. “Up All Night” is up at 24.

Our latest Idol winner Phil Phillips is currently in 6th for his first week demonstrating a remarkable drop in his second week. Typically, drops from first to second week are in the 60-70% range, but one expects slightly higher drops when moving out of a Black Friday week. Last week he sold 172K according to HDD (SS reports 169K, but we need to compare numbers from the same source assuming the same bias is in place) and was predicted to sell 80-85K on Friday. That represents a drop of 50-53%. It helps that the ever-popular “Home” appears to be peaking (or approaching the peak) on radio at just the right moment. I know they had a bit of luck and some hate giving credit to the label for anything, but the label appears to have done everything right this time. A nice change of pace.

Right behind Phil is last week’s number one artist, Rihanna. Looks like if any fans stuffed the ballot box and front loaded sales, it was hers (Phil, 1D and Taylor fans all got those accusations – but even her drop is in the 70% range). Now 44 is at 8 (features American Idol Kelly Clarkson, Canadian Idol Carly Rae Jepsen, Voice Judge Adam Levine and new American Idol judge Nicki Minaj).

Scotty McCreery, last year’s Idol winner is at 13 with his contribution to the Christmas rush, “Christmas with Scotty”. The original Country winner from season 4 is Carrie Underwood and her “Blown Away” album continues to sell well at 38th. Kelly Clarkson, winner from season 1 has her Greatest Hits album selling at 34th. Susan Boyle, runner-up from BGT, is at 37th with her fourth studio album.

Rounding up the judges: Adam Levine’s Maroon 5 from the Voice (staying steady) at 28, Christina from the Voice (fading fast) at 37th and Nicki Minaj re-release dropping as expected at 47th.

CHART DATE: 12/03/2012
LAST UPDATE: 12/03/2012 14:06:04
NOW IN: 55.94%

LW TW artist / album label power index

— 1 ALICIA KEYS GIRL ON FIRE 82,148
6 2 ROD STEWART MERRY CHRISTMAS BABY 75,224
2 3 TAYLOR SWIFT RED 60,190
19 4 MICHAEL BUBLE CHRISTMAS 54,960
4 5 ONE DIRECTION TAKE ME HOME 48,982
3 6 PHILLIP PHILLIPS WORLD FROM THE SIDE OF THE MOON 36,273
1 7 RIHANNA UNAPOLOGETIC 34,188
15 8 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 44 VARIOUS ARTISTS 34,078
18 9 LADY ANTEBELLUM CAPITOL ON THIS WINTER’S NIGHT 32,954
16 10 BLAKE SHELTON CHEERS, IT’S CHRISTMAS 29,177

20 13 SCOTTY MCCREERY CHRISTMAS WITH SCOTTY 21,368

23 28 MAROON 5 OVEREXPOSED 7,310
29 24 ONE DIRECTION UP ALL NIGHT 8,277

12 30 CARRIE UNDERWOOD BLOWN AWAY 6,098

11 34 KELLY CLARKSON GREATEST HITS – CHAPTER 1 4,874

17 36 CHRISTINA AGUILERA LOTUS 4,415
34 37 SUSAN BOYLE STANDING OVATION: THE GREATEST 4,359

28 47 NICKI MINAJ PINK FRIDAY: ROMAN RELOADED 3,215

— 50 MIGUEL KALEIDOSCOPE DREAM 2,747

FINAL

– 1 ALICIA KEYS GIRL ON FIRE 161,038
2 2 TAYLOR SWIFT RED 135,682 -25%
6 3 ROD STEWART MERRY CHRISTMAS BABY 119,918 +4%
4 4 ONE DIRECTION TAKE ME HOME 87,738 -47%
3 5 PHILLIP PHILLIPS WORLD FROM THE SIDE OF THE MOON 78,873 -54%
1 6 RIHANNA UNAPOLOGETIC 72,356 -70%
19 7 MICHAEL BUBLE CHRISTMAS 65,230 +24%
18 8 LADY ANTEBELLUM ON THIS WINTER’S NIGHT NASHVILLE 55,294 +3%
16 9 BLAKE SHELTON CHEERS, IT’S CHRISTMAS NASHVILLE 48,648 -12%
15 10 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 44 42,715 -33%

20 12 SCOTTY MCCREERY CHRISTMAS WITH SCOTTY 40,518 -20%

12 20 CARRIE UNDERWOOD BLOWN AWAY 26,267 -63%

11 22 KELLY CLARKSON GREATEST HITS – CHAPTER 1 25,420 -66%

34 25 SUSAN BOYLE STANDING OVATION: THE GREATEST 23,923 -14%

23 27 MAROON 5 OVEREXPOSED 22,647 -49%

— 30 GLEE CAST GLEE: THE MUSIC, SEASON 4, V1 21,450 —

24 31 TWILIGHT SAGA: BREAKING DAWN 2  21,286 -50%

29 33 ONE DIRECTION UP ALL NIGHT 20,407 -40%

— 35 CEE LO GREEN CEE LO’S MAGIC MOMENT 18,390 —

17 41 CHRISTINA AGUILERA LOTUS 14,415 -73%

— 50 VINCE GUARALDI FANTASY 12,890 —

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About Kirsten 3060 Articles
Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.