HDD Numbers Are In: David Cook moves 31k, David Archuleta 14K

We knew it would be a bad week but I am still proud of DC. Puts him around 843,000 and that is good for just a few weeks. Go Cookie.

Yeah, I’m OK with how it turned out. I’m not leaping out of my chair, but good people here and over at DCO have prepared us well for what the January slump looks like, so it’s not a complete shock.

I’m hopeful DC can make 860k (or over) next week and 900k by the end of the month. I think he’ll make Platinum just in time to get the plaque when he performs live on AI in 2-3 months.

Fingers crossed!

And this week puts DA now at around 580,000. I still think it’s great that they both went gold by their birthdays and before 2007 ended. January is going to be a long month to wait out for sales to rebound. I guess I worry a little more because I experienced TH’s struggle to reach even 700,000 in sales after a good start out of the gate, and I worry about The Davids because of that. I’m more concerned about DA’s sales than DC’s though. DC is ranking quite well still imho. Whereas, DA could possibly drop out of the top 50 soon.

Yeah, sounds about right… in an uglyass, rainy, dreary, bone-chilling January day kind of way. LOL

I have total faith in an ultimate economic rebound. Never fear, Spring is near (or near enough lol.) C’mon Spring!

Here is my quote from yesterday about Cook’s final sales:

Thanks. So he went up about 42% in sales from 69% to final. So if he gets 42% more this week from 22,000, that would be around 31K (ishà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦as Danny N. would say). Is my math correct?

That was based on the HDD percentage numbers Lisa gave me from last week. Pretty darn close!

Yeah the numbers are low (expected), but I am still ecstatic about DC’s ranking.

DA’s rankings will most likely go up when ALTNOY hits the radio. It may be a few weeks though until ALTNOY really starts kicking in.

What the numbers tell me is that Cook and Archuleta are both new artists who the general public still doesn’t know very well because they have one single out each. (Well, Cook has two if you count TOML, but I really don’t because it’s not as though there is a unified “David Cook sound” between TOML and LO….)

What drove the numbers for both of their albums was obviously the holiday season, and my theory is that most of the purchases that allowed them to run up their sales figures were from “soft fans” (once the hardcore fans did their buying during the first week or so). “Soft fans” I would classify as those who watched AI regularly or semi-regularly, enjoyed one David or the other (or both) when they saw them, voted only casually or not at all, and who did not think about David Cook or David Archuleta very often once the season ended. They are not emotionally invested in the success of either and obviously are not bulk-buyers.

Certainly, the songs they released did earn both of them some new fans and customers for their music. But, I think many listeners who are just getting to know them are waiting to hear a few more songs from them that they like, before they invest in their records. So once they each put out one or two more singles, sales should not only pick up but also not fall below a certain “floor” week-to-week (and obviously the general post-January pickup will help too)….

I’d guess next week will see another drop (I don’t know how steep, and I’m afraid to guess), but I’m very curious to see if AI starting a week later will bost sales for either David. I would guess that what noctem calls “soft fans” might only be reminded of the Davids once AI starts again and brings with it some nostalgia for last season. Maybe Ryan will mention DC during the KC audition episode? I’m curious to see how it plays out and what impact, if any, it has on sales.

Not sure which thread to post this. Here are the Top40 Adds for Cook (LO):

KBKS-FM Seattle (#14) WBLI-FM Nassau-Suffolk (#18)
WDJX-FM Louisville (#53) WEZB-FM New Orleans (#55)
KVUU-FM Colorado Springs (#95) KWYL-FM Reno, NV (#124)

And the Top40 Adds for Archie (ALTNOY)

KZHT-FM Salt Lake City (#31) KJYO-FM Oklahoma City (#48)
CKEY-FM Buffalo (#52) WRVQ-FM Richmond (#56)
WXKB-FM Ft. Myers (#62) WFLY-FM Albany, NY (#63)
WBHT-FM Wilkes-Barre (#70) WZEE-FM Madison, WI (#99)
KSAS-FM Boise, ID (#102) KHOP-FM Modesto, CA (#108)
KSXY-FM Santa Rosa, CA (#118) KWNZ-FM Reno, NV (#124)
X020-FM >SiriusXM *

Ugh. At least we have things like new puppies and singles to distract us until sales improve again.

That is quite a drop in sales. I am glad to see that David Cook was able to stay in the top 20.

Does anybody have a sense of how many sales the Davids lost because retailers ran out of their CDs? My local Target had nothing left of either album the weekend before Xmas. I suppose some of those sales may have been made up with gift cards, etc., but you just never know for certain.

A new Cookie single (or a single new Cookie) would be a boost to sales is it catches radio fire. I’d love to see him got platinum before the end of January.

I am hoping DA’s new single on radio will help sales, but we have to be realistic and realize that most of his big fans already have the album with ALTNOY on it, so it will really be new or casual fans who are going to buy it. It will grow little by little, probably a lot like Jordan’s newer singles have done and slowly gain new fans, who may then buy his album. I need to remember that it is a marathon, not a sprint. :cool1_tb:

A new Cookie single (or a single new Cookie) would be a boost to sales is it catches radio fire. Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢d love to see him got platinum before the end of January.

I’m not sure that’s within the realm of possibility. Sales will continue to go down (hopefully not by too much, but they will go down before they go up) and the end of January isn’t far away. Even if he has a new single out, it probably won’t be out before February, and every single takes time to climb the charts once it’s released.
I think even clearing 900k (~57k to go) by February will be a great accomplishment right now.

I’m hopeful for 900K by the end of the first week of February for DC, but…. The entire panel should see another big drop next week, followed by more, but smaller, drops.

DC’s drop was a bit more than others in the top 10 from last week, but still in a similar range. I don’t know that the evidence as yet shows that DC’s sales were fueled by the holidays any more than others that came out at around the same time. My hope is that, with the amount of airplay that Magic Rainbow and LO are having, that his decreases over the next few weeks will be in the same zone as the others in the top zone of the chart.

I’m truly hopeful for no specific number and grateful for every number shown. I am also truly grateful that I was warned that January would be ugly…me thinks it needs a makeover.

It will grow little by little, probably a lot like Jordanà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s newer singles have done and slowly gain new fans, who may then buy his album. I need to remember that it is a marathon, not a sprint.

I like your point of view.. is a Marathon not a Sprint…

I think even clearing 900k (~57k to go) by February will be a great accomplishment right now.

Well, to me it is a certainty he will clear 900K by February. The big question is still whether he will get platinum by February. I assume that the start of American Idol will give him a significant boost and I see him getting 50K a week by the end of the January/ beginning of February (Sunday falls on the 1st of February if we include that sales week). Even if the assumption is not correct, I don’t see him getting anything less than 950K.

I usually look at the numbers but I don’t often comment. I rarely attempt to do any crunching of my own or predicting either. I do so hope that if (when?) Cook performs on AI this season, that his album has gone platinum. WOOHOO!

And everytime I see the numbers for his sales, I think of him saying something like “Oh. Wow. Well. That’s a few more than I sold of my LAST CD, which I couldn’t even GIVE away…I’ll take it, I’m happy!”

I am so thrilled for him and happy. I love the record. I’ve listened to it a gazillion times, along with my other Cook music. And today, for the first time, I found myself skimming through iTunes (at work heh) looking for something, I wanted a Cook song I hadn’t heard in awhile, let’s see…what haven’t I listened to in awhile…hmmmmmmmm…I want something…something…something NEW! BWHAHAHAHHAHAHA!

I so hope that another single will be released soon. I have not heard Light On on either of the 2 AC/HAC radio stations I started listening to yet! Wait, does “lite rock” count as either one of those categories? They play Nickelback, Daughtry, Coldplay, Jason Mraz, Pink, Katy Perry, even Switchfoot (everytime I hear Dare You To Move start, I think DAVID!). But NO COOK! ANYTHING off The Record would fit in there, dammit. :wallbash_tb:

So happy for him. Happy Happy Happy. And if the dang radio won’t play him, I have my iPod full of Cook. So there. But it would sure be cool to hear him singin’ in my radio….

:wub_tb:

Here’s the thing. Next week should be a drop of over 50% for the chart as a whole. Then the next week should be another drop of about a third for the chart as a whole. Then another drop of 10% the next week. If DCTR follows that pattern, he’d be up to around 880,000 through 1/25. There would need to be a big juicing of the numbers for him to be anywhere near 950,000 through 2/1. I haven’t seen any data indicating a huge jump for Idol starting. I’d say that it’s more likely that he’ll be somewhere in the 890,000 to 910,000 sold through 2/1. And that assumes that, in this music market, that sales follow the same patterns and don’t manage to be worse.

For myself, I’d rather assume a lower number and be happy to be proven wrong, than assume a higher number and be disappointed. I’m so appreciative for LadyM and others for finding and publishing the data explaining that the sales were going to be weak in January, because that helped to make my expectations to be more reasonable.

Hereà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s the thing. Next week should be a drop of over 50% for the chart as a whole.

Nope, that’s not true. You can’t directly compare with last year chart. Remember that part of the fall has already been absorbed on Christmas week (when David Cook’s album sales fell from ~130K to ~100K), so you won’t see such a big fall.

I am hoping DAà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s new single on radio will help sales, but we have to be realistic and realize that most of his big fans already have the album with ALTNOY on it, so it will really be new or casual fans who are going to buy it. It will grow little by little, probably a lot like Jordanà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s newer singles have done and slowly gain new fans, who may then buy his album. I need to remember that it is a marathon, not a sprint.

You know, the person I worry about least is Archie, oddly enough. He’s a cute teen boy singing age-appropriate pop on a label that specializes in such, and his label did a test run on a less easily marketable act from the exact same genre last year (Jordin). He has great management and an album fill of hooky pop songs. He’s going platinum, at least. It’s just a matter of when.

Amen to your post about David’s sales, Folk. I’m happy if he just keeps his head above water at this point, I’ll worry about platinum in March. LOL.

The thing is that the drops this week appear to be commensurate with the drops from last year. So, I’m fine with sticking with the data that we have last year in considering likely drops for next week and beyond.

The January sales are horrific this year for any artist. And it’s hard to believe that the number 1 artist didn’t even sell 100k. But we shouldn’t overly worry about both David’s, because in the long run they will be just fine.

MJ or Kirsten: Are we going to get the actual sales numbers for both David’s albums and single? Or is that a thing of the past since Ken is gone?

Here are the Top40 Adds for Cook (LO):

KBKS-FM Seattle (#14) WBLI-FM Nassau-Suffolk (#18)
WDJX-FM Louisville (#53) WEZB-FM New Orleans (#55)
KVUU-FM Colorado Springs (#95) KWYL-FM Reno, NV (#124)

And the Top40 Adds for Archie (ALTNOY)

KZHT-FM Salt Lake City (#31) KJYO-FM Oklahoma City (#48)
CKEY-FM Buffalo (#52) WRVQ-FM Richmond (#56)
WXKB-FM Ft. Myers (#62) WFLY-FM Albany, NY (#63)
WBHT-FM Wilkes-Barre (#70) WZEE-FM Madison, WI (#99)
KSAS-FM Boise, ID (#102) KHOP-FM Modesto, CA (#108)
KSXY-FM Santa Rosa, CA (#118) KWNZ-FM Reno, NV (#124)
X020-FM >SiriusXM *

AC adds for Cook (LO):
WAHR-FM Huntsville (#109)

HAC adds for Cook (LO):
KGBY-FM Sacramento (#27)
KFBZ-FM Wichita (#98)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

AC adds for Archie (Crush):
WSPA-FM Greenville, SC (#59)
KBEZ-FM Tulsa (#65)
WMAS-FM Springfield, MA (#86)
KJOY-FM Modesto, CA (#108)
KTRR-FM Ft. Collins, CO (#123)

HAC adds for Archie (Crush):
WSGL-FM Ft. Myers (#62)
WERZ-FM Portsmouth, NH (#116)

AC adds for Archie (ALTNOY):
WALK-FM Nassau-Suffolk (#18)

Hopefully all these new adds will help both their sales.

Those numbers aren’t so bad. If Taylor Swift cannot even crack 100k this week, low sales for everyone else is expected. Second singles are crucial though, they have to be at the very least moderate hits for the albums to keep selling.
And the new season is about to start and I’m pretty sure both Davids will be granted guest spots, so that should also help push more copies out there.

The thing is that the drops this week appear to be commensurate with the drops from last year. So, Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m fine with sticking with the data that we have last year in considering likely drops for next week and beyond.

Depending on which model you use you will get different numbers. I’m modelling David Cook on Daughtry in 2006/2007 and I see him only falling ~15%. If you model him on Jordin Sparks 2007/2008 the numbers will be much worse, but still nothing near 50% (I’d expect then just under 40% drop). I hope David Cook’s trajectory will be more like Daughtry’s.

HDD should come out with some predictions later on, and we might get some idea as to which way David Cook will go. 25K or above and David will be on Daughtry’s territory, 20K or below Jordin’s.

You can’t compare Cook and Daughtry because at this point in 2007, INO was was charting on 5 formats and that’s what keep his sales up.

BILLBOARD HOT DIGITAL SONGS – TOP 50

22 29 ARCHULETA*DAVID CRUSH 68043 -47 128226 1372708
42 39 COOK*DAVID LIGHT ON 57735 -30 82489 486647

MJ, you have the caption wrong. DC has moved 31,000, but DA has moved 13,000–not 14,000. Yep, a true David Cook fan here!! (=

Cook’s clearly doing fine. Archie’s the one who needs to sell more if he expects to go platinum in the first quarter of 2009.