American Idol 11 – Las Vegas Odds Makers Predict

Here’s something to yak about before Idol begins tonight. I did a piece on what the Las Vegas odds makers are predicting for Idol as we head into the finals.

Phil Phillips is #1 with Jessica Sanchez at #2. Colton Dixon is 3rd. Depending on the odds maker, either Hollie Cavanagh or Elise Testone is 4th and Skyler Laine or Shannon Magrane is 5.

Heejun Han is 9th. And every site I looked at has Jeremy Rosado going home first.

Read the article at Entertainment Weekly

  • http://twitter.com/HaleysShindig HaleysShindig

    Only part they have right is the last one. Bye Jeremy. 

  • http://twitter.com/macapeva MaríadelCarmenPérez

    Hey, does anyone have a working link for tonight’s Idol? Thank you in advanced.

  • Kylee

    Hopefully after tonight Jessica is on top.

  • Anonymous

    Yes, this should be very interesting.  After what happened last year with so many predicting Pia to win the whole thing, we’ll see if predictions come true this year or not again.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_SYFK77IYLRQIVATQ2MJKSW2J7Y Pam

    Wow.  That list looks very similar (maybe switch a position up or down one in some cases) to mine in the power rankings post that mj did after the elimination last week.  lol

  • Anonymous

    Unfortunately, I think the oddsmakers are right. I don’t see a girl winning this show ever again.

    As much as I love Elise, Erika, and Jessica, they don’t stand a chance next to Colton and Phillip. Sadly.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_A7ONFIPRVLCRMCWWSYTZW7O7J4 IvanG

    Am I the only one who thinks Shannon will go home first?

  • Anonymous

    I think people are overestimating Colton’s chances. I think his personality overrides any support he might get from “demos”. I think he is too sullen and serious to me a major contender. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him out before the top 6.

    I think there are 6 people fighting for thee tour spots. I think Elise, Jessica, Hollie, Skylar, Phillip, Colton, and Joshua are locks for the tour. I think Erika, DeAndre, Jermaine, Shannon, Jeremy, and Heejun are the ones in danger of not making the tour. My guess is Jermaine, Shannon, and Jeremy don’t make it, with Jeremy coming in at 11th and JLO tearfully announcing they get to tour with 11 this year lol.

     

  • Nele621

    If a girl doesn’t win this year, and Phillip or Colton wins, then that establishes what AI is really all about.

  • Tess

    Wish I had lots of research time to see how the odds have stacked up for the last 10 years from first week to last.  Bet final results don’t look much like the early round odds.  One bad or good performance can wipe someone out in an instant.  Don’t think I’m too concerned yet with the “odds”.  I think I’d like to see at least a couple of performances before I declare anyone a winner. 

  • http://twitter.com/CanadianLady2 CanadianLady

    Let’s see how the odds change after they sing. :)

  • http://twitter.com/CanadianLady2 CanadianLady

    BTW, nice article on Heejun. http://www.qgazette.com/news/2012-03-07/Features/Queens_Man_An_American_Idol.html

  • rocklet1

    Very accurate prediction..

  • BonnieDee

    I’m going to predict first one out won’t be Jeremy.  It will be a girl.  With the voting system the way it is, Phillip or Colton will win.  Jessica could surprise me and come in second.  She should win, but not with the tween power texters in charge.  

  • fuzzywuzzy

    The precedent has already been set that a WGWG who isn’t “good” can win Idol, so I will be very surprised if P2 doesn’t win.

  • fuzzywuzzy

    I agree about your description of Colton except for the fact that he’s very vocal (at least on Twitter) about being a devout Christian.  That may compensate for his lack of a more appealing personality to the AI voting demographic, especially if he starts to be vocal about his beliefs during the show.  I have predicted that he will reach 3rd or 4th before leaving, and I think that will help him stay in the game. OTOH, if Jeremy starts being vocal about his devout Christianity on the show, then he could be more appealing to that demo (Jeremy is more cuddly and I can see him appealing to those Idol fans who love to “mother” their favorites).

  • http://twitter.com/Sassycatz Sassycatz

    The precedent has already been set that a WGWG who isn’t “good” can win Idol, so I will be very surprised if P2 doesn’t win.

    I’m still not quite sure who the WGWG who aren’t good and who have won Idol are? Especially in terms of setting a precedent, meaning it’s happened time and time again.

  • Anonymous

    I believe a girl will be eliminated first.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/XDQP2Y46M5B3OHOKALDDGDHQCM Leandro

    If one only religious person of this season start to being vocal about a devout christian, all they’ll do it and they will equal each other. Remember that, besides Colton and Jeremy, Jermaine, Heejun (who wanted to be a minister), Joshua, Skylar, Shannon are all very religious. Did I forget anyone? This season would make Scotty McCreery looks like Richard Dawkins.

  • fuzzywuzzy

    IMO, the precedent was Lee Dewyze, who was a weak, pitchy singer on the show.

  • http://twitter.com/Sassycatz Sassycatz

    But — leaving aside whether I agree with your opinion or not — that’s one time in ten seasons, so there’s nothing to suggest it will happen again. I’m not saying that that means men don’t have a foot up in the competition for whatever reasons, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the last man standing will be a weak singer who didn’t deserve to win. There are stronger male singers here, as well as stronger female singers. They could possibly end up winning.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/GMHHT37UJFYFFFO52FS47Z3MGA Nicole

    I expect Colton to make the top 5, though I wouldn’t be completely shocked if he went out early. He’s cute, has had extra time to build a fanbase, plays an instrument, is a different genre than the other contestants, and was the only male in the first half of the top 13 show to get voted into the top 10. It’s a lot going for him, and as long as he doesn’t completely bomb he should do well. 

    If either Colton, Hollie, or Deandre does really well, I expect we’ll be seeing a lot more of these multi-season idol arcs. Maybe next year we’ll have Lauren Gray, David Leathers, and Ariel in the top 24.

  • Miss Chaos

    I think I would like to hear the kids sing first, and see who can master a song in under a week, before I make any predictions.  Based on what I have seen so far, its any one of 6 or so for the top spots.  And I may be the only one around that does not like Jessica at all, I like any of the other girls better,  She just bugs me, another Pia in my brain.  I think the top guys are going to surprise us in who they are, but I do really like about 4 of them, same with the girls, I like about 4 of them a lot, now they need to make me love them, and I think this week will give me some indication of who I really love.  Cant wait for this first nite, too bad about the songs they are stuck singing.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/GMHHT37UJFYFFFO52FS47Z3MGA Nicole

    Season 9 was such a weird season. I’m not sure if it should set a precedent for anything. Lee would not have been my choice to win the issue, but Crystal had likability problems from the start, there were very few viable winners in the cast, and Simon championed Lee hard for some reason.

  • fuzzywuzzy

    “Phil Phillips is #1 with Jessica Sanchez at #2. Colton Dixon is 3rd. Depending on the odds maker, either Hollie Cavanagh or Elise Testone is 4th and Skyler Laine or Shannon Magrane is 5.”

    I agree with the winner, but would put Skyler in 2nd, Jessica in 3rd, Colton in 4th and Elise/Holie in 5th.  I think that Jeremy will leave this week.

  • http://twitter.com/CanadianLady2 CanadianLady

    Yeah, I was going to say it might have had as much to do with people not really taking to Crystal as it did with them loving Lee. She really didn’t ever give off a professional vibe. Much more of an indie feel. Neither really fit the Idol brand in my opinion. Be interesting to see how the 2011 group does because there is a fairly wide range of types.

  • Anonymous

     If my favorite doesn’t win there has to be something unfair going on?  Lets give them all a chance before we make a judgment.  Some might win on voice, some on genre and some on personality or looks… and some on all of those attributes.  It’s their job to figure out a way to appeal to the most people and get them to vote.  “Good” is in the heart of the voter.  That’s only the start.  After that they have to sell records and concert tickets.  Some will, and some won’t.  You can’t blame the winners for the loss of the losers.

  • http://twitter.com/Sassycatz Sassycatz

    And I may be the only one around that does not like Jessica at all, I like any of the other girls better,

    I’m not a fan either. She gives off a pageant princess vibe to me. Very uninteresting type, who has spent their entire life working towards being on Idol.

    Season 9 was such a weird season. I’m not sure if it should set a
    precedent for anything. Lee would not have been my choice to win the
    issue, but Crystal had likability problems from the start, there were
    very few viable winners in the cast, and Simon championed Lee hard for
    some reason.

    I agree with you. I was a big Crystal fan that season. It was her contest to lose, and she did. Part of it, I do believe, had to do with likeability, as well as not being the usual “pretty girl.” Plus, as you say, Lee was pimped by Simon (and others amongst TPTB). I’m guessing it’s because they thought he’d be easier to both market and easier to work with. That is, Crystal would be a less malleable winner.

  • Elliegrll

    IMO, the precedent was Lee Dewyze, who was a weak, pitchy singer on the show.  

    He was also the one who improved the most throughout the season (excluding final two night).  That’s always a big deal, but it was huge that season, because it seemed like so many of the top 24 didn’t make an effort to do better.

  • fuzzywuzzy

    To me, Lee has been the only winner who was a weak, pitchy singer, which is damaging for a show that is supposed to reward those who sing well live.

  • fuzzywuzzy

    I don’t blame the winners.  I’m just saying that to win Idol, a person doesn’t have to be a singer who sings on key (which isn’t subjective like the other qualities that you mentioned).  Lee is the only winner who fits that description, so that is why he set a precedent.  And IMO, to win a show like Idol, the contestant should be able to sing on key at the very minimum (however, that doesn’t mean that singing on key is enough to win).

  • fuzzywuzzy

    What I remember about Lee is that I always got the impression that he couldn’t wait to finish and get offstage, and I never got the impression that he was enjoying himself in trying to entertain the audience.

  • Chris

    Me too.  Only option for a WGWG not to win is the Tanya Harding method… Hire two dumb guys to try to take out the competition by wacking his guitar hand.

  • Anonymous

    “I think people are overestimating Colton’s chances. I think his
    personality overrides any support he might get from “demos”. I think he
    is too sullen and serious to me a major contender. I wouldn’t be
    surprised to see him out before the top 6″

    I agree. He’s more of a name because he’s from last season and people remember him. But he can’t compete with some of the girls and even some of the boys like Phil, who is the prototype for success on Idol.

    I get strong Haley Reinhart vibes from Hollie in that she’s got a boatload of talent and once she figures it all out, she’s going to soar.

    I want to say the top 4 will be Phil, Jessica, Elise, and Hollie, but we all know that isn’t happening. The boys are so weak though, it may just happen.

  • Anonymous

    I understand that sometimes when it comes down to the final two you’re left with neither choice being exciting.  It comes down more to voting against one contestant than for the other.  We can always hope it won’t be that way this season.  Right now for me it’s a new season and I’m looking forward to hearing all of them tonight, and watching them grow.  Hope this is a good group.

  • Anonymous

    And I’m here to defend Lee. I think he had a lot of good performances and as an avid follower am still astounded by his talent. Not just as a singer but also as a songwriter and musician. We love what we love and I personally love his voice…the tone, emotion and the phrasing.

    I think what damaged the show more than anything is how they treated him (and Crystal) afterwards. JMHO

  • fuzzywuzzy

    I agree.  I’m just pointing out that it no longer is a requirement that the winner of Idol can sing on key, therefore, any putative WGWG winner (or any winner for that matter) has more “leeway” in this regard (no pun intended  lol  ).  I hope that the next winner can sing on key, but because a precedent was set, it’s no longer a requirement.  That’s all.

  • fuzzywuzzy

    On the show, Lee was too pitchy to be considered a good singer, regardless of vocal tone, phrasing, emotion, songwriting talent or musicianship.

  • BonnieDee

    Skylar’s pale Miranda Lambert impersonation act will get old fast.  She goes out 7 or 8 IMO.  Her vocals aren’t that good.  She can’t compete with the big voices on the show and she should be exposed this week during Whitney week.  I assume she’ll do the Dolly version of I Will Always Love You.  

  • Anonymous

    Not a fan of Jessica either. She could knock it out of the ballpark tonight, and I still wouldn’t like it.

  • Anonymous

    Skylar has a big voice. I personally watched her slay “listen” by Beyonce. I predict she is going to surprise people.

  • Anonymous

    I’m pulling for Phillip, Skylar (she’s from my home state of MS) and Joshua (he’s from my present state of LA )  Good luck, yall!

  • Anonymous

    I agree that Phillip and Colton are frontrunners, but they may be splitting some votes. I’ve seen many people on twitter who are fans of both. This may not effect the outcome till later in the season, though.
    I think the odds on some of these contestants will change after tonight’s performances. Someone unexpected may come out swinging and wow us.

  • Incipit

    Betting on Idol is big business, and the multiple odds makers sites don’t always agree down the line – but the interesting thing about Vegas odds is – on a good site they are updated daily, and the third party reports we see are of a frozen moment in time.

    Todays odds are pre-performance, and the mid pack is tricksy -I would be fascinated to read the variables used to calculate the odds – and still arrive at different conclusions. At this point, we (as a group) conceivably know everything the odds makers know – it’s just that they remove their own personal preference from the equation.

    “Wish I had lots of research time to see how the odds have stacked up for the last 10 years from first week to last. Bet final results don’t look much like the early round odds.”

    Tess, when I first met Idol, in Season7 – the Vegas odds were the initial stop, to see what was going on – and you are right about that season, at least – Three Semi final performances in they started to change, and with nothing else to go by yet this season – I wouldn’t put much stock in the early numbers.The research would be fun – but eh, who has the time?

    “Let’s see how the odds change after they sing. :) “

    CanadianLady , I agree, with the caveat that this is still only one performance, and also. It’s a cruddy theme that doesn’t hold much promise.

    “Remember that, besides Colton and Jeremy, Jermaine, Heejun (who wanted
    to be a minister), Joshua, Skylar, Shannon are all very religious. Did I
    forget anyone? This season would make Scotty McCreery looks like
    Richard Dawkins.”

    Leandro, Yes – That many overtly religious people cast dilutes the perceived advantage.

    “Season 9 was such a weird season. I’m not sure if it should set a precedent for anything.”

    Nicole, I have to agree with you and Sassykatz, The Season9 winner is not a precedent, in 10 seasons, he is the statistical outlier. If an oddsmaker is looking at patterns, the actual past precedents are different.

    I was looking forward to this evening, until they announced the theme. That’s a buzzkill for sure. It’s just a question of who crashes and burns the worst…

    IMO. Of Course.
     

    (Edited for messed up html – sorry)

  • Anonymous

    Have no idea what is about Phillips.. this year the girls are so much better

  • http://twitter.com/ladymctech ladymctech

    Kylee, I couldn’t agree with you more. It’s good I know Stevie’s music. I could not understand a word that Philip said. And contestants should be discouraged from using an audition song for a live performance. Per tonight’s performances, I think Jessica, Hollie, and Skylar should be the last 3 standing. If Elise makes it through, she needs to watch the pouting.

  • http://twitter.com/ladymctech ladymctech

    I would send Shannon home first.

  • Anonymous

    Do the odds makers ever get it right? Last year on the site I use Casey was the favorite and Scotty was 8to1. I bet on Kris at 25to 1. This year Jessica was the favorite on the site I use with Phil second.I bet on Hollie and she was 7to1.I also put a small bet on Deandre because I thought he was the only long shot with any chance of winning .I’m still too lazy to vote but betting gives me someone to support. 

  • Incipit

     

    “Do the odds makers ever get it right?”

    nyc57, I only followed the odds in Season7, and they definitely got that one right – even when the rest of the Idolsphere was buying the spin Idol was putting out about the front runner…and the pundits were acting all “shocked” at the winner – the oddsmakers had it nailed for some time before the Finale. (Although I haven’t cared enough to check it out since then.)

  • Anonymous

    Well if you have time to read through this post you’ll have your answer: http://idolforums.com/index.php?showtopic=683218

    For example. There has only been one time in history that the #1 person actually won…and that’s Fantasia. According to that post, If your #3 or #4, you have a better chance of winning American Idol. The post talks about Kris as well…