HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Nov 7-13

Now with final numbers: Scotty 41,412, Kelly 30,771, Lauren 12,357; SuBo 64,722, Jackie 36,705

With 58.83% reporting in, HDD has NOW now leading the charge. Unlike many recent NOW offerings, NOW 40 features an Idol. Kelly Clarkson’s “Mr. Know it All” appears as does Maroon 5’s (featuring Voice judge Adam Levine) “Moves Like Jagger”. These always popular albums are selling like hotcakes. Kelly also appears on her own album “Stronger” at 15 and on Jason Aldean’s “My Kind of Party” at 19. Maroon 5’s album is at 47.

But, HDD is predicting that NOW will not keep that lead. Mac Miller who is sitting way down in 11th is expected to make a late surge and finish first with 170-180K in sales (currently at 25K). If this prediction comes to fruition, Mac will be the first independent artist since 1995 to top the chart. You would be totally forgiven for saying “Who?” because Mac has carved out his own little niche. Using a viral internet marketing campaign, he’s built up his fan base with nary a single released to radio. Discuss! He is also yet another signpost that rap may be experiencing a bit of a Renaissance. The genre has been flagging in sales over the past 5 or 6 years (from 12% of the total market in 2005 to as low as 7% in 2009), but this year it seems to be racking up a lot of number ones.

Michael Buble and Justin Bieber continue the battle of the Christmas albums at 2nd and 3rd while Adele sits comfortably in 4th. The Twilight Saga soundtrack is currently debuting in 5th in anticipation of the movie coming out this week (featuring the wife of Idol Paul McDonald)

Then, we hit Simon’s Syco creations. First up is back-story success story, Susan Boyle. Her latest album is sitting in 6th for its second week while her Christmas album from last year “The Gift” is at 26th. Il Divo, Simon’s attempt at making Opera sexy, is debuting at 10th with “Wicked Game”. Meanwhile, Jackie Evancho’s (from Simon’s AGT) Walmart exclusive Christmas album “Heavenly Christmas” is at 12th. Her album released in June is at 45th. Expect the Christmas EP she released last year to make an appearance on the charts again closer to Christmas. Simon certainly keeps that little girl busy. I guess it keeps her out of trouble.

The highest ranking solo Idol right now is Scotty McCreery and his “Clear as Day”. It is sitting at 9th. As mentioned before, Kelly is at 15th and Lauren Alaina is at 30th. Carrie Underwood has a duet on Tony Bennett’s album at 32nd. Voice Judge Blake has his single album at 34th and his “Footloose” title song at 50th.

Rounding out the top 10 are his wife and Nashville Star contestant, Miranda Lambert at 8th and Romeo Santos at 7th.

CHART DATE: 11/14/2011
LAST UPDATE: 11/15/2011 07:26:40
NOW IN: 58.83%

LW TW artist / album label power index
— 1 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 40 VARIOUS ARTISTS 81,945
8 2 MICHAEL BUBLE CHRISTMAS 80,521
1 3 JUSTIN BIEBER UNDER THE MISTLETOE 65,269
5 4 ADELE 21 59,971
— 5 TWILIGHT SAGA: BREAKING DAWN SOUNDTRACK 46,243
3 6 SUSAN BOYLE SOMEONE TO WATCH OVER ME 41,860
— 7 ROMEO SANTOS FORMULA, VOL. 1 41,206
4 8 MIRANDA LAMBERT FOUR THE RECORD 34,105
12 9 SCOTTY MCCREERY CLEAR AS DAY 31,526
— 10 IL DIVO WICKED GAME 28,477
— 11 MAC MILLER BLUE SLIDE PARK 25,216
16 12 JACKIE EVANCHO HEAVENLY CHRISTMAS 20,888

10 15 KELLY CLARKSON STRONGER 19,021

26 19 JASON ALDEAN MY KINDA PARTY 16,566

— 26 SUSAN BOYLE THE GIFT 9,787

36 30 LAUREN ALAINA WILDFLOWER 8,320

18 32 TONY BENNETT DUETS II 8,191

49 34 BLAKE SHELTON RED RIVER BLUE 7,761

— 45 JACKIE EVANCHO DREAM WITH ME 5,700

34 47 MAROON 5 HANDS ALL OVER 5,250

41 50 FOOTLOOSE SOUNDTRACK 4,090

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Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.