HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Aug 29-Sep 4

As Monday was a holiday, we did not get any HDD sales predictions. HDD makes one day sales predictions usually on Wednesday for new releases, Friday for the top 15-20 albums and Monday-Tuesday for the top 50. HDD receives reports from some retailers (how they get these reports and why retailers talk to them at all, I do not know) and uses a mathematical models to predict total album sales. SoundScan numbers start filtering out on Wednesday (although, sometimes, excited labels will release numbers Tuesday night).

So, we will go with their “weakend” predictions (and given how the market is trending this year, I wonder if they might re-think that long-running pun).

Lil Wayne is the clear winner. His “Tha Carter IV” album is flirting with almost 1 million in sales and that is without even bothering to sell it for 99 cents. This wildly successful album follows on the heels of his “Tha Carter III” which sold a slightly more impressive 1, 005, 545 in 2008. I begin to understand why everybody and their dog wants Lil Wayne featured on one of their tracks.

Next up are the Red Hot Chili Peppers showing that rock albums can still open big with 215-240K in sales. Of course, this is about half of what their 2006 album sold in its first week (443K), but these guys know how to keep selling and selling.

Speaking of somebody who keeps selling and selling, Adele remains perched in the top 3 after a very well received performance at the VMAs. She helps to push JayZ and Kayne down to top 4. David Guetta, master DJ extraordinaire, debuts at 45-50K which is higher than they were predicting earlier in the week. The lead single for this album was co-written by Season 6 Idol Contestant Jared Cotter. “Where the Girls At” featuring Flo Rida and Nikki Minaj topped charts all over the world, but only reached top 14 on the US Hot 100.

Close at David’s heels is the top country album and debut album of the week from Jake Owen. His “Barefoot Blue Jean Night” single is currently topping the Country radio charts. Game, Beyonce, Now 39 and Barbara round out the top 10 with between 30-45K in sales. Jason Aldean is predicted to be around 14th with 24-27K in sales. He is dropping cross-over sales as his duet with Kelly Clarkson begins to fade on the mainstream charts.

*Lil Wayne (Cash Money/Universal Republic) 925-975k
*Red Hot Chili Peppers (Warner Bros.) 215-240k
Adele 21 (XL/Columbia) 125-150k
Jay Z & Kanye West (Roc-a-Fella/Roc Nation) 80-85k
*David Guetta (Capitol/EMI) 45-50k
*Jake Owen (RCA Nashville) 45-50k
Game (Interscope) 40-45k
Beyonce (Columbia) 35-40k
Now 39 (Capitol/EMI) 30-35k
Barbra Streisand (Columbia) 30-35k
Foster the People (Columbia) 27-30k
Luke Bryan (Capitol Nashville) 27-30k
Lady Gaga (Interscope) 24-27k
Jason Aldean (Broken Bow) 24-27k
Adele 19 (XL/Columbia) 21-24k

HDD Sales Chart

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Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.