X Factor 2 – Top 13 POWER LIST and PREDICTIONS

Here’s my first X Factor 2 power list. I’ve put the acts in the order I think they would be voted off TODAY. With the bottom 2 acts representing the bottom 2. Of course, I’m no Nate Silver. This is not a scientific list! Just a semi-educated guess.

I invite you all to play along, and then watch the X Factor with me tonight to see how accurate are rankings are!

1. Lyric 145 – Supercalifragilistic – Simon Cowell – Groups – Definitely the watercooler moment of the night was when Lyric 145 took the stage to do a version of this Mary Poppins classic that was both totally wack and brilliant. Lyric is a STAR.

2. Carly Rose – It Will Rain – Britney Spears – Teens – Carly Rose’s vocal talent and maturity are effortless. This was a great song pick for her. One of the night’s most powerful moments.

3. Tate Stevens – Dead or Alive – LA Reid – Over 25s – Tate is the best of the male singers. His pure, crystilline country twang is radio ready. And he’s likable in that everyman sort of way. He’s going far.

4. Emblem3 – My Girl/California Girls – Simon Cowell – Groups – These guys are super talented and polished and NOT going ANYWHERE soon. But their performance last night, mashing up 20 songs. Ok it was only THREE–My Girl, California Girls an What Makes You Beutiful–was a little busy and a bit of a hot mess. Not as good as last week.

5. Beatrice Miller – Iris – Britney Spears – Teens – I thuoght she was off-pitch through most of her song, and her performances feel like a kid play acting to me, but I think Beatrice resonates with the audience. She’ll be sticking around for awhile.

6. Arin Ray – American Boy – Britney Spears – Teens – Arin’s Usher/MJ vibe is perfect for him. Interesting song choice. I don’t think he’s broken out of the pack yet, but he could if he keeps along the path that he’s on.

7. Jennel Garcia – I Love Rock n Roll – Demi Lovato – Young Adults – It takes 7 spots for Demi’s acts to appear. That’s because she’s failing her charges. Jennel is exhibit 1. This faux rocker thing she’s got going for Jennel is not ringing true. The audience ain’t buying it. If Demi doesn’t regroup, Jennel is gonna be out the door.

8. Vino Alan – When A Man Loves a Woman – LA Reid – Overs – Vino has an interesting, powerful voice and he feels every song he sings. But, he may be too scary for the audience. The combination of the face tattoos and the pockmarks make him look like he just stepped out of the penitentury. And his passion comes off weirdly intense at times. It’s going to be hard for the audience to connect.

9. Diamond White – I Have Nothing – Britney Spears – Teens – Lots of folks thought Diamond was robbed when Britney cut her, but Diamond’s uneven performance of a Whitney Houston classic didn’t come close to justifying her return. But she’s going to get a week of grace for putting together a performance at the last minute. But if she doesn’t step it up, she’ll be gone quick.

10. Jason Brock – I Believe I Can Fly – LA Reid – Over 25s – Jason’s vocals are not cutting it and hes not interesting enough to be campy-good. It doesn’t help that LA is picking tired, atrocious songs for him, either.

11, FifthHarmony – A Thousand Years – Simon Cowell – Groups – There are some stand out vocalists in Fifth Harmony aka 1432 aka LYALAS, but overall their singing is uneven. This was not a great song choice for the girls. The performance paled in comparison to the Christina Perri original.

12. CeCe Frey – Eye of the Tiger – Demi Lovato – Young Adults – CeCe has the potential to be a pop star, but she’s not going to advance unless she’s marketed in a very particular way. Demi needs to give this girl contemporary songs that are in her range, that will allow her to show off her swag without seeming obnoxious. It’s a tall order, and sadly, I don’t think Demi is up to the task. CeCe will once again sing for her life this week.

13. Paige Thomas – Take My Breath Away – Demi Lovato – Young Adults – I actually LIKED Paige’s performance, but despite descending from the heavens in a harness, her vocals needed more pizzazz. This is Paige’s problem generally. She’s got a solid voice, but hasn’t really developed a strong identity yet. Chances of Demi helping her to find that are pretty much nil. She’ll sing for her life too, but CeCe will be saved:

Prediction: Paige Thomas will be eliminated.

  • http://twitter.com/eric_ascher Eric Ascher

    mj, I really hope you are wrong about Lyric 145. I agree that they are talented but I just don’t like rap, and they would be my least favorite winners out of the top 13. I love Jennel (but I agree that Demi isn’t doing her justice), Carly, and Emblem 3. Tate is my favorite male country artist I’ve seen in a while, as he handled last night’s not-a-country-song song very well.

  • fantoo1

    Am I the only one who didn’t think Lyric was that amazing? I personally think 5th Harmony should be higher and Lyric shouldn’t be that high.

  • http://twitter.com/mwk89 Matthew Kitson

    Did you miss Jennel’s audition? She is a rocker

  • SullyD

    ITA with your top3. Hopefully they will all be safe tonight.

  • calathea

    I think it is Page or Diamond leaving.
    And I completely disagree with your opinion about Beatrice being off-pitch and a kid playing act. It was just a couple of spots and her performance was honest and believable, so much that even Simon praised her in that area.

  • jcabby

    I think Fifth Harmony is excellent. I am a fan of these girls.

    As for Lyric 145, Lyric should be solo. She is that talented.

  • http://twitter.com/IkeMendes Henrique Mendes

    5th Harmony and Carly are my favorites. Frankly I don’t care who goes home except for these 2.
    I think you don’t give those girls enough credit MJ

  • fuzzywuzzy

    I agree with your ranking, MJ, except I think that Cece was worse than Paige last night, so she is in more danger of leaving. Almost her entire song was off key and her onstage movements were awkward. I’m not a particular fan of Cece’s, but I know that she can do much better and I think that Demi is coaching her in the wrong direction (same as with Jennel, although not a much).

  • http://twitter.com/dam744 Damien Roberts

    I don’t know if I can trust someone who thinks that Diamond or Vino is better than Fifth Harmony nor that Arin Ray is better than Jennel Garcia.

  • Reflects On Life

    My predictions:

    Definitely not going anywhere – Carly, Lyric, Emblem, Tate

    Midpack, safe this week – Fifth Harmony, Janell, Diamond
    (Janell might have an image crisis, but she sings really well and performs very confidently.)

    Should be worried – everyone else
    (I would have put Arin & Paige as midpack, but they sang 1st and 2nd on a 2hour night. Plus, neither has a powerful voice or a recognizable tone.)

    Fading fast – Beatrice
    (She would be better mentored by Simon.  This show is doing her no favors.)

    Most likely to go home tonight – Jason
    (American’s don’t like the joke contestant for very long, and Jason isn’t funny enough anyways.  He was more enjoyable last week with the OTT dancers)

  • girlygirltoo

    Oh wait — only one act gets cut? Never mind then :)

    I’d say Paige, Jason, Diamond or Cece will go. They were all bad last night. Hard to narrow it down, but if it was up to me, I’d say Diamond leaves.

  • blackberryharvest

    I think the bottom 3 will be a combination of Jason, Cece, Paige, Diamond, or Beatrice with Cece going home.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_5CTSGSGATMXQESVDDD7RWQRYXU Jane

    I agree with you for the most part, MJ.  Although I do think (hope) that CeCe is going home tonight.

    Fifth Harmony would be my next to go, but it seems that most would not agree with that.

  • waynestrong

    I think with Lyric 145 you either like it or you don’t. Last night they were sort of a mix of LMFAO meets Outkast + raiding Ceelo’s closet. It was a big tall glass of WTF. 

  • Nedsdag

    If the bottom two are Jason and Cece, she’s out in a 3-1 vote. Why? If CeCe gets her act together, she becomes a threat to Britney’s girls and Simon’s girl group. I think it would be wise for these two to get rid of her ASAP! Kick her out while she’s down.

    I think Jason will go next after CeCe.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/NWXRUOY5BTHY5F52JP3ZFJTTVI Mikko

    Sorry, I have got to disagree a lot, because i have been for many weeks following the YouTube views. They certainly do not tell everything, but a lot any way. The most popular acts have been Carly and Fifthharmony by far, and after last week also Emblem3. Tate Stevens is great, but in X-factor he might not get votes however great country singer he is. He has been the least popular and is in big danger of leaving tonight.
    Lyric 145 has been quite populra, but this last performance felt weird for many and has received surprisingly few views, although it was great in its own way. Cece has been like the 3rd popular all the time, and she has got to mess her songs many times in row, before she is voted off. She is surprisingly popular.
    Whereas Arin, however great guy he is and also performed well yesterday has not been very popular.
    When Diamond was brought back, that will carry her for many weeks.

    I am quite certain, that the bottom 3 will be somebody from the crowd Tate, Jason, Arin, Paige and Vino (although Vino was exvellent yesterday) and I think it will be Jason, Tate and Arin. Bottom2 will be Tate and Jason (Tate having received least amount of votes), but they will save Tate (which I would do also) and Jason leaves.
     

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/JC5VIWKY7SZ67OVWR2ISVCWYKY Brian

    Totally agree.  I have been looking at opinions elsewhere and people either love or hate Lyric 145.  However, that isn’t necessarily a bad thing in voting competitions.  Much better than being 5th-8th on everyones list, but nobody’s favorite.

  • Jordana33

    MJ, I completely agree with your top six.  Arin would be higher on my list of personal favorites, but in terms of audience favorites,  I think his ranking on your list is spot on.

    I also really liked Paige’s performance, so I hope you’re wrong about her elimination. She’s the only person on Demi’s team who’s actually benefited positively from her input! Ce Ce and Jason are my choice for bottom 2. CeCe is an extremely talented vocalist, but her past two performances have been a mess, partially thanks to Demi’s bad advice, but also because she doesn’t know how to connect with the audience.

  • mjsbigblog

    Did you read my intro? You might want to check it. This is not a list in order of my favorites, but who would be eliminated and in what order.  

    Jennel is being mishandled by Demi, which is why she is so far down the list. Arin Ray is total chick bait and if you haven’t noticed, girls do the most voting for singing show contestants.However, it’s possible I’m underestimating the popularity of Fifth Harmony

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/JC5VIWKY7SZ67OVWR2ISVCWYKY Brian

    I guess Demi was really rallying all of her fans to vote for her contestants on twitter last night…and it got retweeted so much it became a trending topic.  I wonder if this will have much of an impact on the competition.  Not sure that is really fair.  Imagine the damage Britney could do if she got all her twitter followers to vote for her contestants…especially when it gets down to one of them like Carly….it would be tough for her to lose at that point.  http://www.examiner.com/article/demi-lovato-rallies-fans-to-vote-for-her-x-factor-groups-on-twitter

  • http://twitter.com/OzzyBonjour ??EvHeaD??ozzy??

    My predictions with a grade out of 10 (have weird decimal places because of my funny marking techniques lol)

    1- Carly Rose Sonenclare                      9.7

    2- Lyric 145                                          7.8

    3- Jennel Garcia                                    7.3

    4- Beatrice Miller                                  7.1

    5- Emblem3                                           7.0

    6- Fifth Harmony                                    6.9

    7- Diamond White                                6.9

    8- Paige Thomas                                  6.3

    9- Tate Stevens                                   5.8

    10-Arin Ray                                          5.8

    11-Vino Alan                                        5.8

    12-CeCe Frey                                      4.9

    13-Jason Brock                                    3.9I even feel too generous towards some people like CeCe, Jason and Diamond… She wasn’t perfect but she wasn’t THAT bad… She’ll be around at least another week ;)

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/JC5VIWKY7SZ67OVWR2ISVCWYKY Brian

    This 2000 vote sample doesn’t look great for Lyric 145  http://x.dialidol.com/asp/predictions/Predictions.asp?week=13&sort=TD&type=numbers&season=2

  • mtthew

    this is just my opnion, based on how excited/awkward each performance made me feel.

    carly
    lyric145
    fifthharmony
    emblem
    janel
    beatrice
    arin
    diamond
    tate
    vino
    jason
    cece
    paige

  • jdanton2

    I have to disagree with  Fifth Harmony   being so low on that list. They are amazing and have a good size fan base . the show  would be a joke if they left in the next couple of weeks.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/JC5VIWKY7SZ67OVWR2ISVCWYKY Brian

    Hey old Lisa Tucker fan (recognize the name)….I agree…Fifth Harmony seems to have an enormous fan base.  I think them, Carly and Emblem 3 probably all get to the final 5 (if not final 3).

  • http://twitter.com/Loretta31 Loretta

    Why do so many love Lyric 145?  I do not like them at all.  :(

    Last night I saw talent & growth in most performers.

    My favs are

    Carly
    Emblem3
    Beatrice
    Arin
    Paige
    Fifth Harmony

    Hoping Jason or CeCe goes home.

  • http://twitter.com/ClaudeDee Claude Dee

    One of the over 25’s will be leaving tonight… if not… Paige Thomas! 

  • sumidol

    I agree and it is so sad, Demi is destroying all of CeCe’s potential, that gosh awful hair color and the way she is dressing her and the song choices, this girl has an amazing voice but it is sad how all that potential is being thrown away

  • Nasstopher

    If I was picking my two least favorites, I would say: Paige and Diamond.

    But in reality, the worst three performances last night were from: Jason, CeCe and Paige.

  • chessguy99

    I remember her audition, she looked the part of a rocker. I liked what I saw. But, after the past few performances I started to pick up that she was copycatting every performance. So, I went back and compared Jennel’s audition to Grace Potter’s performance of Paris on Ellen. I was stunned to hear Jennel sound like she took the exact phrasing from that performance. I now think she is just very good karaoke. Though I do have one hope, her boot camp performance of Sweeter may be the real Jennel, and if she can recapture that, she has a chance.

  • TackyZacky

     I like Carly’s personality and I think she has a good voice.  She sounds wonderful on low register notes, but her voice becomes screechy, shrill and a bit off-key on the high ones.

    I liked Cece’s pre-makeover hair color, looks and performance style. I no longer recognize her in her current state – sad that Demi has tried to morph her into a half-ass version of Lady Gaga.

    I think all three groups are impressive in the following order: Lyric 145,Emblem 3, and Fifth Harmony.

    All the others, except maybe Arin, are kinda forgettable for me.

  • Kristie

    Demi Lovato just tweeted this:
    Wow! Tonight on @TheXFactorUSA we’re gonna get the results for each contestant in order of votes!! #XFCouldGetAwkward
     
    Interesting.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_UHX5LYQ3ZJPMPFEYPSFX3ZEE4Q Jack

    Thanks for the post, Kristie.  If this is true, it would be a first for any of these shows.  They are very reluctant to reveal the order of votes because it takes away from the drama.  For example, the year Carrie Underwood won American Idol, Nigel revealed later that she was the top vote getter every single week of that season.  It would have made for a drama free finale.  If they really do this, I am almost certain Lyric145 got the most votes.

  • Oldhag

    I think Demi’s age is a problem and it is a bit unfair to her acts.  It’s weird because Tulisa was only 23 last year on UK X Factor and she was probably the best mentor.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_YRZ4ZGB4QBWUETLKEZH4TFHWXY Sigh…

    Let’s see…Arin switches up a reasonably current song and has the added bonus of being a cute guy and Jannel does a copycat performance of an overdone song from the 80s. I think MJ was generous in her placement of Jannel since they’re like side by side examples of what does and doesn’t work. I don’t think Beatrice had many if any bum notes, just sounded strained in general and I honestly think it’s in her best interest that she doesn’t stick around for long unless they take better care of her voice. I think Jason and CeCe will be in the bottom. Lyric 145 was #1 for me, but I also think there’s a large part of the audience they will annoy so Carly’s probably going to be #1. In any case, it’s pretty much Britney vs. Simon this season. She had the best overall group to start with, and he has a couple of ready for radio acts.