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Here’s my first X Factor 2 power list. I’ve put the acts in the order I think they would be voted off TODAY. With the bottom 2 acts representing the bottom 2. Of course, I’m no Nate Silver. This is not a scientific list! Just a semi-educated guess.

I invite you all to play along, and then watch the X Factor with me tonight to see how accurate are rankings are!

1. Lyric 145 – Supercalifragilistic – Simon Cowell – Groups – Definitely the watercooler moment of the night was when Lyric 145 took the stage to do a version of this Mary Poppins classic that was both totally wack and brilliant. Lyric is a STAR.

2. Carly Rose – It Will Rain – Britney Spears – Teens – Carly Rose’s vocal talent and maturity are effortless. This was a great song pick for her. One of the night’s most powerful moments.

3. Tate Stevens – Dead or Alive – LA Reid – Over 25s – Tate is the best of the male singers. His pure, crystilline country twang is radio ready. And he’s likable in that everyman sort of way. He’s going far.

4. Emblem3 – My Girl/California Girls – Simon Cowell – Groups – These guys are super talented and polished and NOT going ANYWHERE soon. But their performance last night, mashing up 20 songs. Ok it was only THREE–My Girl, California Girls an What Makes You Beutiful–was a little busy and a bit of a hot mess. Not as good as last week.

5. Beatrice Miller – Iris – Britney Spears – Teens – I thuoght she was off-pitch through most of her song, and her performances feel like a kid play acting to me, but I think Beatrice resonates with the audience. She’ll be sticking around for awhile.

6. Arin Ray – American Boy – Britney Spears – Teens – Arin’s Usher/MJ vibe is perfect for him. Interesting song choice. I don’t think he’s broken out of the pack yet, but he could if he keeps along the path that he’s on.

7. Jennel Garcia – I Love Rock n Roll – Demi Lovato – Young Adults – It takes 7 spots for Demi’s acts to appear. That’s because she’s failing her charges. Jennel is exhibit 1. This faux rocker thing she’s got going for Jennel is not ringing true. The audience ain’t buying it. If Demi doesn’t regroup, Jennel is gonna be out the door.

8. Vino Alan – When A Man Loves a Woman – LA Reid – Overs – Vino has an interesting, powerful voice and he feels every song he sings. But, he may be too scary for the audience. The combination of the face tattoos and the pockmarks make him look like he just stepped out of the penitentury. And his passion comes off weirdly intense at times. It’s going to be hard for the audience to connect.

9. Diamond White – I Have Nothing – Britney Spears – Teens – Lots of folks thought Diamond was robbed when Britney cut her, but Diamond’s uneven performance of a Whitney Houston classic didn’t come close to justifying her return. But she’s going to get a week of grace for putting together a performance at the last minute. But if she doesn’t step it up, she’ll be gone quick.

10. Jason Brock – I Believe I Can Fly – LA Reid – Over 25s – Jason’s vocals are not cutting it and hes not interesting enough to be campy-good. It doesn’t help that LA is picking tired, atrocious songs for him, either.

11, FifthHarmony – A Thousand Years – Simon Cowell – Groups – There are some stand out vocalists in Fifth Harmony aka 1432 aka LYALAS, but overall their singing is uneven. This was not a great song choice for the girls. The performance paled in comparison to the Christina Perri original.

12. CeCe Frey – Eye of the Tiger – Demi Lovato – Young Adults – CeCe has the potential to be a pop star, but she’s not going to advance unless she’s marketed in a very particular way. Demi needs to give this girl contemporary songs that are in her range, that will allow her to show off her swag without seeming obnoxious. It’s a tall order, and sadly, I don’t think Demi is up to the task. CeCe will once again sing for her life this week.

13. Paige Thomas – Take My Breath Away – Demi Lovato – Young Adults – I actually LIKED Paige’s performance, but despite descending from the heavens in a harness, her vocals needed more pizzazz. This is Paige’s problem generally. She’s got a solid voice, but hasn’t really developed a strong identity yet. Chances of Demi helping her to find that are pretty much nil. She’ll sing for her life too, but CeCe will be saved:

Prediction: Paige Thomas will be eliminated.