Who Will Win American Idol Season 10?

This week’s final power list is pretty simple.  My powers of prognostication have been pretty lousy lately-I was so sure Lauren Alaina would get the boot last week, but here she is in the final.  But, I don’t think she’s going to win.

  1. Scotty McCreery
  2. Lauren Alaina

I can’t imagine confetti raining down on anyone else other than Scotty McCreery when all is said and done on Wednesday night.  That doesn’t make me a genius–at this point it’s conventional wisdom.  Scotty has never been in the bottom 2. While he hasn’t taken any risks, he’s performed assuredly within his own country lane–singing both traditional and pop country tunes with ease.

Lauren came out of the gate with a bang–trading licks with Steven Tyler on “I Don’t Wanna Miss a Thing” during her audition. But she withered under the hot lights and the judges’ criticisms.  Not quite ready for primetime, Lauren’s performances have been tentative and uneven throughout the competition, while fellow teen, Scotty grew stronger as the weeks went by.

I think the Scotty train is unstoppable. And it’s one of the reasons this week final is destined to dullsville.  You’ve got two teens who while not identical, sing in overlapping country styles.  Neither take risks. Lauren, in particular, is literally terrified of messing up at this point. It’s safe to assume there will be no surprises during the Tuesday night final.

Well, maybe one surprise.  With the revelation that Haley Reinhart will be singing an original song on the finale, it’s safe to assume that Scotty and Lauren are probably preparing original songs for their coronation numbers. And let’s hope they’ve moved beyond the puppies and rainbows nonsense of past years.   A recent tweet indicated Scotty will be singing a song by “Live Like You Were Dying” writer, Tim Nichols who tweeted that Scotty recorded one of his songs.

Even if the final performance show is dull (David Cook will be around to sing the boot song live to spice things up, at least), here’s hoping the producers are preparing a kick ass finale show, featuring the Top 13,  former Idols and assorted music stars.

Who do you think will win American Idol Season 10?

 

 

  • LaleyFan

    Lauren’s Top 13 Week performance of Reba’s On The Radio was pretty spectacular and she has had some great performances other than this season as well. She has been uneven and held back some weeks, but overall, I think she’s pretty strong. I think you underestimate her. Not to mention, she clearly is not splitting votes with Scotty or they would not both be the Final 2. Lauren has her own team of voters, so I won’t count her out just yet.

  • Lucy1234

    But she withered under the hot lights and the judges’ criticisms. Not quite ready for primetime

    There are many, including myself, who believe Lauren is ready for primetime. Although I totally agree that Scotty has the edge, I would love to see Lauren take the crown as I believe she has better vocals and more potential for superstardom. I love the tone of her voice and I fully expect to see a confident Lauren on Tuesday. With all that said, I am completely okay with her coming in 2d as she will get a record deal and will get her chance as a recording artists whether she is the winner or runner-up. Lastly, I am tired of guys always winning – I want a girl to win this year – Lauren FTW!!!

  • sgills

    Personally, I’ve been dreaming that Lauren will sing WITH Steven Tyler for the finale “I Don’t Wanna Miss a Thing” so that she can blow everyone away again and pull off a win against Scotty. Crazy? Maybe.

  • koshka

    Who will win?

    19 alphabet, the show’s sponsors, judges & UMG. LOL

  • mickeybordentwo

    Jennifer Lopez has already won Season 10, with TPTB coming in a close second, Jimmy Iovine third, Steven Tyler a distant fourth, the Idolettes in fifth, and Randy Jackson struggling to come in last.

  • Esqt

    Who will win?
    LAUREN (…just a gut feeling).

  • Valentin432

    Scotty has had this in the bag for weeks.

  • tawny

    Jlo, Steven, Ryan and tptb – they are raking in the $.

  • t2

    Who wins? Me, because I get to do something more exciting than watching this show on Tuesday. You know, something like doing dishes and laundry.

  • bjames

    I’m not really sure I even care to watch Tuesday (even though I’m not going to lie and saying I won’t watch). These are two fine teenagers, but I’m just still completely bitter that Haley didn’t get that little push into the finale. She would have no doubt made magic on that stage (even though there’s no way she could beat Scotty).

  • hoodathunk

    I think Scotty’s trifecta of country vote, teen vote, and southern vote makes him an unstoppable force.

  • tawny

    I wouldn’t be suprised at all to see some busing of Scotty tomorrow. Then there is the anti vote and the we want a girl to win contingent. So I would say a Lauren win is still possible after all she is “the one”.

  • Kirsten

    I think Scotty will win. I don’t think the Nokia will phase him, but I’m not so sure about Lauren.

    Still, Lauren has that pimp spot in her back pocket and lots of people want to see a women win. She may take the casual voters if her soaring vocals suit the occasion/venue more than Scotty’s quiet story-telling vibe.

    On a shallow note, I want Scotty to win because I need the pool points.

    I wonder which song they will reprise. It’s always a tough choice because it is hard to replicate the magic of the first performance of the songs. Sometimes, I think that they actually make the original performance seem less than they were. You also don’t want to do a song that was done too recently. Best choice is to pull out a song that was good, but you know you can do better and is at least 4-5 weeks old. Never reprise a song form last week even if you thought it was a moment. People already just voted for that song. Don’t expect them to break out the all-nighter voting for the same song two weeks in a row.

  • mytwocents

    Hi MJ! This is totally random but I wish you could also do a compilation of Haley’s performances? That would totally rock. :D

  • Trina

    Well lets see. First Randy predicted an all boy finale, then he predicted James would win, now he’s saying Scotty has the edge. So I’m going with Lauren winning because it will be the opposite of what Randy thinks :)

  • sma11ie

    Based on Idol historical stats/superstitions…

    Lauren will win because in the past 9 seasons, the gender of the winner has always been the majority gender at Top 3.

    Scotty will win because of the KrisTY Lee Cook curse/premonition, lol. Kris, Lee, and Cook have all won, so now we’ll have Scot-TY. LOL.

    P.S. Rooting for Lauren.

  • Nostradamas

    Who wins?

    The Voice, The X Factor, AGT, etc…because these two children will continue to make AI seem the laughing stock of failed “(reality show) stars”… they’ll both fail miserably in the real world.

  • Kirsten

    Hi MJ! This is totally random but I wish you could also do a compilation of Haley’s performances? That would totally rock.

    She’s been doing them all year for everybody.

    Here is Haley’s.

  • tinawina

    I still think Scotty will likely win but when Nigel revealed Haley’s vote totals last week, it became clear that there was not all that much separating Scotty and Lauren and that an upset is possible. It’s all about what Haley’s voters and the casual fans do tomorrow night.

    I agree that while these two are not exact replicas of each other, they are close enough that they just seem redundant. It just going to come down to stuff other than singing I think.

  • Buffynut

    I was absolutely positive Scotty would win….. until MJ’s prediction! LOL! Now I am going with Lauren! :)

  • canuck

    I think the top 2 performances will expose Scotty’s flatness – every song is gonna sound the same. He does not sound good when he has to reach a little higher.

    Lauren is so ready for the primetime too – judging from how she ate up the attention at her homecoming.

  • gabriel oak

    Who cares?

    But if I have to show an ounce of caring, I want Scotty to win.

    I don’t think Lauren has done anything to deserve the title. Not ONE memorable performance. I still can’t believe she’s in the finale.

  • windmills

    Kirsten: I wonder which song they will reprise.

    I expect Scotty will reprise Gone to contrast with a producer’s choice ballad. I think LaurenA will reprise Anyway.

    LaurenA winning helps me in the pool. I’ve been in denial about Scotty’s conventionally assumed lead all season. I hope they both do great tomorrow and Wednesday.

    Can I say too I’m so happy to have a Tuesday AI show back?

  • Eileen99

    I like them both, and am fine with either one winning. Scotty’s the favorite, but it’s hard to say if there will be some last minute “I want a woman to win, dammit” votes. If that’s the case and she conquers her nerves and has one or two stellar performances, I do think Lauren can win.

    Can I say too I’m so happy to have a Tuesday AI show back?

    I so agree with you. I haven’t liked the Wed/Thurs schedule at all this year.

  • songsungblue

    Who cares who wins? They’re both so “nice!” Because being nice is soooooo much more important than talent! ;)

    Eh. Even if Lauren sings rings around Scotty, he’ll still win. This has all the excitement of a horse race between a thoroughbred and a crippled donkey.

  • Coldbluesteel

    Buffynut says:
    05/23/2011 at 11:57 am

    I was absolutely positive Scotty would win….. until MJ’s prediction!

    This. As a Lauren fantard I was really hoping MJ picked SM.:)

  • Trina

    I still think Scotty will likely win but when Nigel revealed Haley’s vote totals last week, it became clear that there was not all that much separating Scotty and Lauren and that an upset is possible.

    Not really..Out of 95 million votes Haley got 25 million, so 70 million between Scotty and Lauren we really have no idea about the breakdown. For all we know Lauren could have had 26 million and Scotty got the rest, kwim? It likely wasnt the statistical tie like they revealed in season 5 Top 3 night.

    I think in some seasons theres a runaway winner who will no matter what come Top 2 night. Carrie was a good example, Taylor led DI every week so I’m guessing him, we know Fuller said he knew DC was winning because he saw the votes every week, many believed Crystal outsang Lee Top 2 night yet he won. I suspect Scotty is in that boat but I could be totally wrong. I like both kids though and I’m fine with either.

  • weese

    These two prove you do not need “moments” to win idol. Moments are about good tv but not about winning.

    Scotty wins.

  • Lucy1234

    Kirsten: I wonder which song they will reprise.

    I expect Scotty will reprise Gone to contrast with a producer’s choice ballad. I think LaurenA will reprise Anyway.

    I think Lauren may sing Candle in the Wind but I would be happy with Anyway.

  • Buffynut

    I would like Candle in the Wind from Lauren. And if she wants some non-country voters, that would be a smart choice. Plus it was first performed a long time ago.

  • Indigobunting

    One big snorefest.

    But I guess if I have to care; hoping Lauren will win to redeem a little of Idol’s reputation after the bashing it took last year.

    Scotty is good karaoke TV, but Lauren is a way better singer and has more potential.

  • AddictedToMars

    I am a Lauren fan and I want her to win but I do think Scotty is going to win. I support both and will buy both of their albums when they are released. This is the 2nd year that I’ve liked both of the top 2. The first time that happened it was Kris/Adam. So many people thought Lauren and Scotty wouldn’t make the final 2 together due to vote splitting but obviously they can’t be splitting votes if Haley couldn’t even crack the final spot for the top 2. I’m looking forward to the performance show tomorrow night. It’s the battle between traditional country vs. country pop.

  • chearts77

    Scotty is my favorite. I hope he does win. I like Lauren too and won’t be upset if she won. But, I’ll be voting hard for Scotty. I hope he reprises Gone. I hope the spoilers that went around yesterday are wrong and I think they are. I hope the producers pick good songs for both of them and I hope the “winning” song is fantastic. I have a lot of hope for tomorrow night. :)

  • Reflections On Life

    Lauren is both TCO and The Underdog, simultaneously. This should be interesting…

  • CRB

    Based on history and this seasons DialIdol numbers, which show Scotty was pretty much the only contestant “safe” week-to-week, I’d say Lauren is a goner.

  • sgills

    These two prove you do not need “moments” to win idol. Moments are about good tv but not about winning.

    Scotty wins.

    I agree completely about having the “moments” – because I think Haley had probably the most memorable moments throughout the season. If she were in this finale, I could think of at least 5 songs I’d love to hear her sing again (Rolling in the Deep, Bennie, Piece of My Heart, I Who Have Nothing, House of the Rising Sun, etc.) – but I think Lauren has had some really great points as well – its just that we’re all expecting a lot more from her because her audition was so spectacular.

    Another thing that I’ve noticed about Lauren is that she’s done consistently well on the “results” shows and duets – her duet with Scotty on “I Told You So,” “Up on the Roof,” and with Haley on “Gunpowder and Lead,” were some of my favorites throughout the season. I don’t know if its shouldering the attention so she feels more confident, the fact that she wants to sing well or better than the other person, or just song choice – but those are probably some of her best vocals all season (I suspect its the confidence thing). I was a huge supporter of Haley all season, but I have to say I think Lauren still out-sang both Haley and Scotty on those duets (though it could just be that the Miranda Lambert song is more in Lauren’s lane than Haley’s).

    I saw somewhere that both of them were singing their audition songs again – though I do not know how much truth there is to that. (I really hope I don’t have to hear “Your Man,” by Scotty McCreepy again – though if I do, I hope its a duet with Josh Turner himself and Lauren/Steven can duet “I Don’t Wanna Miss a Thing”). They really need to plan things like this in order for this season to go out with a bang.

  • OnePlusSix

    Jennifer Lopez has already won Season 10, with TPTB coming in a close second, Jimmy Iovine third, Steven Tyler a distant fourth, the Idolettes in fifth, and Randy Jackson struggling to come in last.

    This pretty much sums up the entire season, except I might put Steven third andJimmy fourth.

    With regards to who gets crowned, it doesn’t matter a whole lot because they will both get a contract and that’s when their REAL competition with begin in the world of the music industry…work baby work.

  • http://www.amadcow2.com amadcow2

    The fact that Scotty was safe every week doesn’t totally equate to him being safe Tuesday night. Crystal was mostly safe through S9, but was toast in the final (still upset over that one). Now having said all of that, Scotty is a lock for this thing.

  • wonderings

    songsungblue

    Eh. Even if Lauren sings rings around Scotty, he’ll still win. This has all the excitement of a horse race between a thoroughbred and a crippled donkey.

    Or a thoroughbred and a My Little Pony:
    http://i53.tinypic.com/2cdc1zr.jpg

  • Lisa

    LOL who cares who wins? Both gave boring performances the whole season. Neither one had one stand out moment.

    I stand by my prediction at the beginning, Scotty wins.

    AI please change your voting system. While you are at it, fire this set of judges as they are worthless. Why not have two non celeb judges that can honestly give critics & who will have no problems calling out anyone on their mistakes and bad vocals.

    I will tune in Thursday for David (YAY great winner), Adam (YAY mad vocal talent), Casey, Haley, James. Don’t care who wins won’t be buying their stuff.

  • SpenserJ

    I would prefer to see Lauren win, but Scotty’s had this thing locked up for weeks. Which, when I think back to Scotty’s Hollywood week beginning, utterly mystifies me LOL. After the nuts of wonder, and the Baby Lock Them Doors montage, I was sure that Scotty was getting a fodder edit.

  • chicksineggz

    I am 99% positive Scotty will win. I also want him to win, if only because of the Kristy Lee Cook curse/prophecy (whichever way you want to look at it, lol). Also, I really do think Scotty has shown more growth than Lauren. He’s MUCH more confident than her too. And I find his performances absolutely hilarious and sometimes awesome (other times terrible) when he goes uptempo.

    I do like Lauren though, and if she gives her best performance ever then I’ll be happy if she wins.

  • tomr

    They are winners already. The naysayers out there underestimated the number of fans each has. Congratulations to those fans who, for the most part, maintained the high road when others’ didn’t. And, of course, congratulations to Lauren and Scott for their perseverance and ability to set a fine example at such a young age. Best wishes to you both. Have fun!

  • butterbean

    I’ve been in denial about Scotty’s conventionally assumed lead all season.

    This is what’s annoying to me. Conventional wisdom has us assuming that Scotty will win. We only know this b/c of DialIdol numbers and Ryan saying that Scotty’s never been in B2, etc. But if we DIDN’T know these things would we assume that Scotty’s a lock, just based on his performances? I don’t think so.

    Without our insider knowledge, I would never guess that Scotty’s been running away with this. I prefer when a contestant’s amazing performances tell us who’s doing great in the voting. Like, for instance, when Adam grabbed Season 8 by the throat and never let go. (Still lost, I know, but you get what I mean.)

  • tinawina

    Not really..Out of 95 million votes Haley got 25 million, so 70 million between Scotty and Lauren we really have no idea about the breakdown. For all we know Lauren could have had 26 million and Scotty got the rest, kwim? It likely wasnt the statistical tie like they revealed in season 5 Top 3 night.

    I know, I just mean that even if the worst case scenario you describe, the difference isn’t insurmountable when you realize there are a potential 25 million other votes up for grabs. And if those voters break towards Lauren, then she could squeak past him… very much like a Ruben/Clay scenario.

    I don’t think it is likely mainly because I don’t think Scotty is as polarizing as Clay. I’m just saying it is possible.

  • SpenserJ

    But if we DIDN’T know these things would we assume that Scotty’s a lock, just based on his performances.

    No. If I were a casual viewer and never visited mj’s, I’d be completely shocked that Scotty had made it this far. Not because he’s bad or anything. Clearly, the kid’s got talent. And, he seems likable enough. I just find him so unremarkable and not very exciting. Obviously, I’m out of step with America on this one. Whatever he’s got that is pulling in all of those votes just hasn’t translated to me at this point.

  • iluvai

    I pick Lauren for the win! She has a fantastic voice and a great personality, lots of spunk! Go Lauren!

  • dinaa68

    For me, Lauren has not achieved the potential I saw in her at her audition. I didn’t realize at her audition that she would be a country singer on Idol, and I was disappointed. I thought she’d be more like Kelly Clarkson with a dash of Carrie thrown in now and then. At least Scotty has been consistent. He should win (meaning, in choosing between him and Lauren) and I think he will win (but I’m still heartbroken that James won’t win and isn’t even in the final two.)

  • larc

    SpenserJ says:
    After the nuts of wonder, and the Baby Lock Them Doors montage, I was sure that Scotty was getting a fodder edit.

    That may have been exactly what it was. But fodder edits are valid only when the voters buy into them. They didn’t in this case. My guess is the Scotty train has reached a speed that puts it well beyond Idol’s control at this point. All they can do is stand and watch with their clothes whipped about as it rushes by.

  • http://untitlement.wordpress.com vorona

    On Tuesday, we’ll have two kids up there who sing similar styles and are both talented, so I think people’s voting decisions will be a little different than usual.

    Most people (in my real life) seem to think Scotty will be fine, no matter what, and doesn’t need the win. So he gets a ding against him there. Voters want contestants who need them.

    Lauren is The One, but she gets a lot of sympathy, and I think people will feel that awww factor, imagining her weeping into the falling confetti in her prom dress and tiara like Barbie’s Dream Idol. Another ding against Scotty.

    On the other hand, the teenaged girls in the audience the other day could barely breathe, they were so out of their minds to be in Scotty’s presence. Mini-Elvis was in the house. And he’s teflon coated. (So, you know, eggs won’t stick to his pan. Or something.)

    So I’m wondering if maybe it’s the squeeeeee vote versus those who vote for who they think needs the win more or would look cutest under the confetti.

    I won’t vote. I like them both and don’t really care who wins, except to wonder who’d be a better closer on the tour. ;) (Which actually might be Lauren, since she has a little more variety than Scotty.)

  • Valentin432

    It’s not just the DI scores that point towards Scotty. That hometown package was telling. He couldn’t make two steps without dozens of crying girls screaming his name.
    The same happens every week on the idol studio if you go by the people who write on scene reports.

    Both Casey and James looked pretty much defeated the moment they realized Scotty was the contestant standing with them. They could feel that they were already toast because he’s so popular.

  • sma11ie

    there are a potential 25 million other votes up for grabs. And if those voters break towards Lauren, then she could squeak past him… very much like a Ruben/Clay scenario.

    Exactly. And as I mentioned earlier, in each of the past 9 seasons, the gender of the winner has been the majority gender of the Top 3… if Haley’s voters somehow rally and decide to send anywhere near 25 million votes Lauren’s way, and Scotty’s voters get even a tad complacent, Lauren could definitely win. Anyway, I kinda don’t think she will, but I do hope she does.

  • SpenserJ

    That hometown package was telling. He couldn’t make two steps without dozens of crying girls screaming his name.
    The same happens every week on the idol studio if you go by the people who write on scene reports.

    I would suspect he’s also the one getting fan-mail by the truckload.

  • chicksineggz

    I’ve been in denial about Scotty’s conventionally assumed lead all season.

    Lol, same here. I mean, I know he’s been in the lead, I just always had this thought that SOMEONE might be able to overtake it. Because in the recent past seasons of Idol, the clear frontrunner never won. And I liked that little underdog, dark horse story. (Which is why I loved S8 so much) And while Scotty has shown some growth, it’s really not as much as it should be. I feel like if we had different judges, Scotty would be performing better each week. He clearly takes criticism well.

    Does Lauren have a chance at winning? I guess, but she’s got to really knock it out of the park on Tuesday. She needs to actually get the casual viewers motivated to vote. (And it would probably help her if the judge declared Scotty the winner on Tuesday, but knowing these judges that’ll never happen) Right now I’m probably not going to vote, but if I did, it’d be probably be for Scotty. =/ (This is coming from a Haley fan)

  • sunny2

    There is no doubt that Scotty is going to win. Nigel said last week that Haley got 25 million votes. Haley said in an interview she new the votes were close. So, if the total was 95 mil, Haley got 25, and let’s say Lauren got 30 mil, that leaves scotty with 45mil. I don’t think there is any way to beat him.

  • Coldbluesteel

    I think Scotty wins. I don’t think most of Haley’s fans will vote in significant numbers for either.
    BUT
    There is a glimmer of hope for Lauren. The Atlanta TV stations and the AJC just started paying attention to her after top 3. The Atl suburbs are enormous and could change that green Dial Idol into yellow anyway.

    Or so I will con myself into thinking while I am voting Tuesday night.

  • wolfsbane813

    i think lauren might have a chance of taking this thing.

    scotty is a very polarizing contestant and has a very specific fan base. i think lauren, will still country with a specific fan base, has more cross over appeal and might be able to pick up the casual vote. looking at their standard deviations at WNTS, lauren is more generally approved of and liked, where as scotty has a wider gap of approval. while this is not telling (look at last year for example), i think that it is something to be considered. also, with all this stuff about a girl not being able to win, i think she still has a pretty good chance. even tho i picked scotty to win in the pool because of his crazy fanbase, i’m going to be power voting for lauren as long as i can manage tomorrow night to help her chances of winning.

  • larc

    vorona says:
    Lauren is The One, but she gets a lot of sympathy, and I think people will feel that awww factor, imagining her weeping into the falling confetti in her prom dress and tiara like Barbie’s Dream Idol. Another ding against Scotty.

    Maybe not. There are people who feel that Tuesday night’s performances will be so dull that they should be compensated by a big meltdown on Wednesday night. ;)

  • Lexus

    I pray Scotty wins this. I believe he will. As a matter of fact, I think he’s been leading the race all season. His singing is so effortless and to my ear flawless and he’s really turned into a stage performer. While I can appreciate Lauren’s talent, I wouldn’t be able to tolerate listening to her apart from singing. She’s so incredibly immature, emotional and a bit flighty. I realize she’s only 16, but so is Scotty and there’s miles of difference between their levels of maturity. I just don’t think Lauren’s ready for what’s about to happen.

    Can I say too I’m so happy to have a Tuesday AI show back?

    I prefer this year’s T/W timeframe. A few friends of mine came back to watch AI this season since it no longer interfered with Tuesday night’s “The Good Wife” which is also a ratings grabber.

  • tinawina

    On Tuesday, we’ll have two kids up there who sing similar styles and are both talented, so I think people’s voting decisions will be a little different than usual.

    Yeah, that’s what I think too. Usually the top 2 voting seems more like a referendum on the whole season’s performances + “what style of music do you like more?” but these 2 are so alike in these ways that I can’t see a real solid advantage to one or another. Maybe Scotty a little. So I still think there is room for an upset, though Scotty definitely has an unstoppable mystique going on.

    Anyway, I kinda don’t think she will, but I do hope she does.

    I’m torn. On one hand she’d be the first girl winner in 4 years and that would be great. On the other hand, she’s never actually been phenomenal on stage despite that gorgeous voice and tons of potential, so it would seem a little wrong for her to win to me, even if I like her voice better. Scotty has been solid and has had some fun performances, even if he wasn’t the best technical singer he was always likable and rarely outright bad. Picking someone to root for tomorrow is hard.

  • butterbean

    It’s not just the DI scores that point towards Scotty … Both Casey and James looked pretty much defeated the moment they realized Scotty was the contestant standing with them. They could feel that they were already toast because he’s so popular.

    My comment wasn’t about who’s popular. It was about somebody giving amazing performances and FOR THAT REASON being the assumed frontrunner. I like Scotty, think he’s a sweet kid and a good singer. But his performances, imo, haven’t justified the feeling that he’s an unstoppable force for the win.

  • http://ucsub.colorado.edu/~hansenkd/BrahmsGuides MahlerFan

    I can’t see most of Haley’s voters really giving a crap which of the two wins. The majority of them won’t vote.

  • SpenserJ

    Picking someone to root for tomorrow is hard.

    Amen to that. I feel pretty much the same as you summed up in that paragraph. I prefer Lauren, but don’t really think she “deserves” to win (if there is such a thing on this show). I don’t mind Scotty, but I’m not all that impressed with him either.

    I had planned not to watch Tuesday and only tune in Wednesday. But then, little-Spens reminded me that Lauren is her favorite, and OH YES we will be watching LOL.

  • fuzzywuzzy

    I think that Scotty is unstoppable now, no matter what Lauren does. No way that he’ll choke. I do hope that Lauren has 3 great performances regardless of the outcome.

    Jennifer Lopez has already won Season 10, with TPTB coming in a close second, Jimmy Iovine third, Steven Tyler a distant fourth, the Idolettes in fifth, and Randy Jackson struggling to come in last.

    Iovine will push hard to make IGA #1 again. Jimmy’s label is now #5. From HDD:

    Gaga’s album is one of the keys to an IGA turnaround, as Jimmy Iovine’s onetime marketshare leader has been overtaken by the Steve Barnett-led Columbia, which is having a huge year behind Adele and the Glee franchise. In fact, IGA is currently in fifth place in new-release marketshare year-to-date at 5.4%, trailing not only first-place Columbia (at 7.6%), but also #2 Atlantic (6.8%), #3 IDJ (6.5%) and #4 Universal (6.0%).

  • Miss Chaos

    I really dont care about the Top 2 but I am looking at it in a different way, since they both sing about the same to me, Lauren boring, cant hit the notes, Scotty hits most of the notes, but what does it matter.
    For me for you, what does matter is after Idol and not nesessarily the songs, is the interviews and how they are when they are out in the public. To me Scotty seems like a cute kid, and can talk with some sense. Lauren is the most mumble mouth kid with a whiny voice that cant speak, just listening to her talk grates on my nerves. I cant even imagine her in the public eye she is so child like and annoying. So my choice goes to Scotty, alto I will only be taping, and watching the final on Wed. Scotty will win AI and Lauren can go sulk in the corner crying.

  • larc

    sunny2 says:
    So, if the total was 95 mil, Haley got 25, and let’s say Lauren got 30 mil, that leaves scotty with 45mil. I don’t think there is any way to beat him.

    Haley and Lauren may have been even closer than that since a 5M difference really isn’t that close. Plus I think Scotty’s supporters will pull out all the stops and vote like demons tomorrow night. If there was ever a time they thought they could ease off because he was so comfortably ahead, tomorrow night won’t be it. I expect Scotty won’t only win, but likely will receive more votes than any previous Idol winner.

  • sharilbus

    There has been a lot of teen girls through the years getting a start in country music but I don’t remember any teen boys. You have to have grown up on country music to understand how good Scotty really is.

    Lauren is also good but I am not sure she understands what she is getting into. She doesn’t seem to be as strong as Scotty and I see a lot of crying in her future.

    I do see Mickey and Minnie doing back flips over either one of these two. They both will be perfect to fulfill the Disney obligation that the winners usually do.

    I will be voting for Scotty tomorrow night and that decision was made the first time I heard him sing in the auditions.

  • iluvai

    I don’t think Lauren is whiny at all and she has a sweet personality. I love to listen to her talk and think she is as funny as heck. Scotty’s inteviews will be mind-numbing. Thank goodness he cried at his hometown visit because I was beginning to think he was a mere robot. jmo!

    Besides, Lauren will look way prettier standing in a confetti shower! I’ll bet that Lauren will be fine whatever the outcome. I think she is way tougher than people realize. She actually beat out a bunch of adults to get her spot in the top 2!

  • SpenserJ

    Iovine will push hard to make IGA #1 again. Jimmy’s label is now #5.

    Ouch – #5 has to be painful. I wonder what that means for the Idols Jimmy is going to sign. Will he push them hard with a lot of promo and really put his weight behind making them successful? Or, will he rush out their music and if it fails to ignite fast enough, quickly move on to something else.

    Jimmy’s desperation could be a good thing, or a bad thing LOL.

    Okay, I do have one wish for Lauren on Wednesday night, since many assume she’s going to have an emotional break down. If she does lose, I want her to handle it like a champ.

  • jammasta

    I feel so incredibly cruel for saying that I look forward to Lauren’s reaction when she doesn’t win. If she melts down I will find it strangely funny. If she takes it with class she’ll gain more respect from me.

    I’m a little scared, what if she cries on Tuesday? I’ve always wanted Scotty to win, but I’m so afraid of Lauren crying. Either way, this will be the hardest I’ve voted all season (probably any season, let’s see if I can top my Kris Allen vote count which was around 2000 or 4000, I forgot which, but I didn’t vote very much for Crystal because I lost hope).

    Honestly, package-wise, I think Scotty is leagues ahead of Lauren.

  • iRazRazz

    I don’t really care who wins. Haley didn’t make the finale so I’m happy :D

  • rkt

    Not sure if thus is posted or if it’s accurate:

    Song spoilers:

    Scotty’s- Flying High
    Lauren’s- World Of Tomorrow

    Producers Choice
    Scotty-Angels by Robbie Williams
    Lauren-Back To December by Taylor Swift

    Reprise Song:Audition Song
    Scotty-Your Man
    Lauren-Like We Never Loed at All

    Round 1-Producers Choice
    Round 2-Audition Song
    Round 3-Winner Single

  • iluvai

    Honestly, package-wise, I think Scotty is leagues ahead of Lauren.

    I guess if you prefer bologna on white bread for lunch. :)

  • keware

    Haley and Lauren may have been even closer than that since a 5M difference really isn’t that close. Plus I think Scotty’s supporters will pull out all the stops and vote like demons tomorrow night. If there was ever a time they thought they could ease off because he was so comfortably ahead, tomorrow night won’t be it. I expect Scotty won’t only win, but likely will receive more votes than any previous Idol winner.

    Completely agree.

  • Hailey

    I believe Scotty has run away with it all season. I also think TPTB didn’t want him as the AI winner at all, and were really hoping all the pushing of Haley brought them an all female finale. They tried so hard, and couldn’t knock Scotty into the bottom at all. Yet, as we know when Southern Rocker Bo Bice was pinned one on one with Carrie it was NO CONTEST she smoked him. I think she was more popular than Lauren at the time, but every blog everywhere was pulling for Bo. I thought he had it. At least Bo was more interesting, but on finale night he was just awful. He had the worst songs, and him singing “Inside your Heaven” was a mess. lol So, you never know what these two will be saddled with come finale night. If Idol has it’s way, confetti will rain down on Lauren, but with 4 hours of voting many kiddies hit the hay and can’t stay up until 1AM. So it will depend on what the ADULTS manage to do in the wee hours of the voting. IMO. And I don’t think many want Scotty to win, so Lauren has that advantage.

  • Pam

    After I saw that vid that mj posted this weekend of Lauren & Scotty in that interview, it made me appreciate Lauren a whole lot more. Personally, although Haley in the mix would have given finale watchers more variety, I honestly adore this two kids after seeing that video. I’ll be voting my fingers off for Scotty tomorrow but honestly I won’t be upset regardless of the outcome.

    I remember watching Scotty’s homecoming here last weekend (thanks mj) and from what I remember not only were there Garner peeps there but the newscaster even mentioned people coming in from out of state for his homecoming as well. I guess until then I didn’t realize what an unstoppable force Scotty was. heh I don’t live in Garner. I’m actually on the SE coast of the state but one of our local Bojangles restaurants has “vote for Scotty” on their sign out in front. I thought that was sweet. He was a smart boy bragging about their food. Heh

    My thinking is that he is unstoppable at this point and will take it all if the fans vote like crazy on Tuesday which means his performances may not matter one way or the other. I agree that Lauren has had some good performances this season and is probably the most marketable of these two but I do think that Scotty is more emotionally prepared to handle this. I think it’s still possible Lauren could take this. Either way I’ll be happy no matter the result and I wish them both the best of luck.

    ETA: When Ryan was on Leno last week, Jay asked him of the 3, who he thought would take it and he did say that the margin at that time was close and of course didn’t give out any specific names.

  • Hailey

    I forgot to add, if you have been paying attention to twitter, many Scotty fans are Lauren fans equally and are planning on NOT voting tomorrow night, since they cant pick one. Wonder how that will play out in the voting as well.

  • chicksineggz

    Wait, what exactly is the “theme” for the songs on Tuesday? Are they for sure reprising a song? Are they actually going to be able to pick any of the songs they are singing???

    Lauren is The One, but she gets a lot of sympathy, and I think people will feel that awww factor, imagining her weeping into the falling confetti in her prom dress and tiara like Barbie’s Dream Idol. Another ding against Scotty.

    Or, you know, some people might be turned off by that thought, and vote against her. Lol, nevermind maybe that’s just me. But I don’t vote against people anyways.

  • AddictedToMars

    I feel so incredibly cruel for saying that I look forward to Lauren’s reaction when she doesn’t win. If she melts down I will find it strangely funny. If she takes it with class she’ll gain more respect from me.

    I really doubt that Lauren is going to fall apart when Ryan announces that Scotty is the winner. I think it’s funny people would think that because I don’t think Lauren is as weak as people think. I suspect she’s probably happy to make it this far and feels lucky that she did, she gets a car and a guaranteed recording contract. If anything I think she will be happy for Scotty who’s she has said is her best friend in the competition. I just don’t see Lauren crying a river over not winning.

  • http://ucsub.colorado.edu/~hansenkd/BrahmsGuides MahlerFan

    I think it’s possible that Lauren may have only beaten Haley by a couple of million votes or even fewer. DI had them even closer than Haley and James were the previous week, and they actually had James ahead, which suggested strong Haley voting on other platforms. All evidence points to a razor-thin margin of elimination, and while an admitted Haley fantard, I really think that this is the case.

  • McCreerian

    I know I am in the minority, but I love this finale. We haven’t had a country idol since Carrie Underwood. I am excited because I would be happy for either one!

  • musicality

    Out of the remaining two I would think Lauren would be very marketable. But the fact the Scotty has this gigantic built in fanbase makes him marketable right there. As far as Carrie “Smoking” the competition during her season. I think that’s a matter of opinion. During her season she bored me as much as Pia did this season. She had zero stage prescence and I don’t find her any better than any of the others out there Scotty included. Personally I think she gets by more on her looks than anything else. She has the packaged country Barbie thing going.

    The entire season has lacked memorable moments in general. For me a memorable moment is when someone sings an entire song with their own spin and pitch perfect. Scotty was on pitch but not that memorable same with Lauren. Haley did give some memorable on pitch performances but her voice is so different that it was difficult for the vanilla loving American Idol audience. Casey was a great musician and could at times give some pitch perfect performances. Durbins moments were off key and mostly stage production. When he goes up into the higher register he has a Jerry Lewis quality to his voice. Pia well Pia put people to sleep.

    I didn’t bother voting this season. Almost did for Haley because of the bussing. But when I took time to think about it I found I didn’t really care. My time is more valuable then spending hours on a phone hitting redial.

  • SpenserJ

    All evidence points to a razor-thin margin of elimination, and while an admitted Haley fantard, I really think that this is the case.

    I’ll admit I’m a Haley fantard as well. But in her interviews, she’s indicated that someone told her “it was close”. So yeah, I’m assuming a pretty thing margin as well. Which solidifies my belief that Scotty is unbeatable – regardless of whether Lauren finally has her moment or not.

    I think it’s funny people would think that because I don’t think Lauren is as weak as people think.

    I don’t think she is either. This has been a huge learning experience for her. I think the big cry she had during her bottom two appearance is the only one we’re going to get. She won’t break down during Scotty’s confetti shower.

  • http://ucsub.colorado.edu/~hansenkd/BrahmsGuides MahlerFan

    My time is more valuable then spending hours on a phone hitting redial.

    This is a strong argument for a vote limitation, and Nigel actually seems to be leaning that way. The reason limiting the number of votes per device would be a good thing is that it would take the power away from the little girls and Hausfrauen who control the vote every year and determine the winner. The average non-passionate record-buying Joe or Jane is willing to put in 10 votes on a couple of devices or online. But when these average casual voters know that the Little Girls and Hausfrauen are passionately texting for two hours straight, they’re not willing to put in the time, and they know their ten votes are basically meaningless, so they just don’t bother to vote at all.

    Instituting a voting limit (meaning a top number of votes per device) would have so many positive ramifications that it blows my mind it hasn’t been done yet.

  • Pam

    She won’t break down during Scotty’s confetti shower.

    Even though I was really concerned about Lauren the night she was B2 with Jacob, I think this time may be different. Scotty and Lauren seem pretty close so I don’t think an outcome in his favor will upset her.

  • SpenserJ

    Personally I think she gets by more on her looks than anything else. She has the packaged country Barbie thing going.

    I’ll respectfully disagree. I voted for Bo during Season 4, and I don’t own any Carrie songs. But, while it’s obvious that girl is stunning, it is equally obvious to me that she is immensely talented. I’m not a country music fan, but Carrie’s got pipes. And, she was a little wooden during her idol run, but from her performances on awards shows, I’d say she’s improved a lot.

    I saw that video of Carrie singing How Great Thou Art, and honestly, I was mesmerized. For me, regardless of her genre, I just cannot deny the woman’s gifts.

  • larc

    Pam says:
    When Ryan was on Leno last week, Jay asked him of the 3, who he thought would take it and he did say that the margin at that time was close and of course didn’t give out any specific names.

    I’ve often wondered if Ryan is in the loop for getting exact individual vote totals. He clearly wouldn’t have a need to know. Overall rounded totals may be all he gets regularly.

  • tomr

    Regardless of who wins, they have become friends (especially through required school time) and have been and will continue to support each other. Each should and will be happy for themself and for the other.

    As for Carrie, I did not like her during Season 4 but have seen her numerous times since and have to agree that she is awesome AND she always handles herself with dignity and class. She sets the bar as to how to act once declared the winner.

  • MrDuffin

    I don’t know who will win nor do I care but I do know it will not be the best singer who competed this year. This is bush league singing at the high school level.

  • SpenserJ

    I don’t know who will win nor do I care but I do know it will not be the best singer who competed this year.

    Well, it won’t be the first time that happened :). Even though this isn’t my ideal final 2, I can at least take comfort in the fact that Scotty & Lauren can both carry a tune.

  • iav123

    scotty have thing since the moment nigel saw him.

  • http://untitlement.wordpress.com vorona

    I don’t know who will win nor do I care but I do know it will not be the best singer who competed this year.

    It’s probably like SYTYCD. Nigel always makes a point of stressing that they are searching for America’s FAVORITE dancer, not the best one. Embracing the popularity contest. (Perhaps I’m un-American — my AI favorites went out fourth and third. ;) )

    [P.S. — at the risk of Nigel branding me moronic, has anyone noticed the similarity between this season’s AI finalists and last season’s SYTYCD finalists? Blonde teenage cheerleader from the south named Lauren and Gosh-Shucks smalltown boy. (Kent was my favorite, though, so I was happy there.)]

  • Kirsten

    Besides, Lauren will look way prettier standing in a confetti shower!

    The way the spread around that confetti, the only way she won’t be standing in it is if she has an umbrella.

    If we are picking winners based on their prettiness in the confetti shower, I think Karen should have won. She would have been luminescent with joy.

  • tinawina

    Well, it won’t be the first time that happened :) . Even though this isn’t my ideal final 2, I can at least take comfort in the fact that Scotty & Lauren can both carry a tune.

    LOL. So true.

    To me its hard to really complain because every single contestant this year had a damaging flaw, so I can’t really make the case that any two others were so much better that this outcome represents an epic tragedy or something. LOL. Both kids can sing and have their own appeal.

    On the other hand, there was a really diverse interesting group this year and as has been said before, its seems a bit of a letdown that out of all the people we were presented with, these two are somehow the best of the crop? Two relatively similar, fairly predictable (if competent) kids that have slightly more promise than output? We couldn’t have livened this finale up just a tad? It’s like this is a victory of the “ain’t he/she adorable!” factor more than anything else.

    Still, nothing will be worse than off key bleating winning on pure penis power. LOL. Okay, that was mean. Sorry Lee and his fans. But still, I can live with either of these, at least I get why people like them. Hell, I like them, I just don’t love their runs as contestants even if I think they can sing.

  • car3278sweet

    Personally I think she gets by more on her looks than anything else. She has the packaged country Barbie thing going.

    Ah, no. Carrie might have been a bit wooden when she was on AI, but she had chops. Right from the start. And if you take a look at that vid “How Great Thou Art” – there is no way a person can watch that and not think the woman is a superstar.

    I agree with you, SpenserJ.

  • IdolThoughts

    McCreerian

    I agree. I’d be happy for either one. Lauren is very marketable and I for one give her much more credit than she’s received for her voice, poise and potential. I think her vulnerability is just a sign that she has not even come close to peaking and that it remains to be seen just how far she will go. That, to me, is exciting…rather than a major downfall. Scotty on the other hand, although I have enjoyed him since Day 1, knows exactly who he is and has the confidence of a seasoned performer. I know what I’m getting with him and what kind of album he’ll put out. I wonder if that type of predictability will be in his favor or if the expectation is already too high. It will be interesting to see how their careers play out in parallel.

  • iluvai

    If we are picking winners based on their prettiness in the confetti shower, I think Karen should have won. She would have been luminescent with joy.

    Agree Karen is lovely. But I didn’t say I was picking Lauren on prettiness. I think she is a better singer than Scotty and I think she will look prettier than he would in that confetti shower. jmo.

  • abbysee

    I am stumped. While I want Scotty to win, I am not sure how it’s gonna shake out. I’ve been trying to figure out what tptb wants, what they’ve been pushing for. IMHO that ain’t Scott. I think they sorta just figured at some point he’d go away, lol, but he didn’t. That therein is his biggest strength, the voters like him, and are buy what he’s selling at least votewise. I can’t count myself among them totally because I started voting last week.

    Lauren is a good singer, I see neither of them as boring or bush league high school, there is some real talent there. My biggest knock on Lauren is that while her voice is good, she’s just another good singer, and she doesn’t emote the lyrics, just the words, that’s why song tailor made for her voice and genre just seem to lay there because she doesn’t yet have the chops to animate them. For the most part Scott does. The other thing is this growth arc. Scotty has that by miles. Lauren was the lock, The One, coming out of auditions. But she never was as good as that again, Scotty, on the other hand last week and the week before was a revelation to me. If he had been instructed earlier, his growth arc would have been even bigger, because he listens and wants to get better. He’s taken what grains of instruction given and is working on those things that will in the future will make him a real good performer.

    So in summation, I guess Scotty is the one who should win this thing. Given the demographics of the voters, the fact that he’s never been awful, always at ease, and has grown in this competition, I hope he wins. Gonna be hard because there is a large contingent of people who just want a girl to win, no matter what. That is my only concern.

  • Buffynut

    butterbean says:

    05/23/2011 at 1:09 pm

    I’ve been in denial about Scotty’s conventionally assumed lead all season.

    This is what’s annoying to me. Conventional wisdom has us assuming that Scotty will win. We only know this b/c of DialIdol numbers and Ryan saying that Scotty’s never been in B2, etc. But if we DIDN’T know these things would we assume that Scotty’s a lock, just based on his performances? I don’t think so.

    Without our insider knowledge, I would never guess that Scotty’s been running away with this. I prefer when a contestant’s amazing performances tell us who’s doing great in the voting. Like, for instance, when Adam grabbed Season 8 by the throat and never let go. (Still lost, I know, but you get what I mean.)

    Hadn’t thought about this before but I have to say, I agree 100%!

  • LaleyFan

    Lauren’s just as good as Carrie was on her Idol run, if not better. She has tons more charisma on stage than Carrie ever did and just as good a singing voice. I think people too quickly forget how pissed people were that Carrie won back then and how boring people thought she was. She has since proven herself though to make us forget. Like Lauren, she was just another pretty blonde country singer. I don’t see much of a difference at all. Lauren will be fine.

  • shell29

    In spite of the fact that Scotty has lead the pack on Dial Idol all season long, I believe Lauren Alaina will be the season 10 winner. No way do Uncle Nigel & Co want 4 white male winners in a row and for whatever reason I think they see Lauren as the potential second coming of Carrie Underwood.

  • Reflections On Life

    [P.S. — at the risk of Nigel branding me moronic, has anyone noticed the similarity between this season’s AI finalists and last season’s SYTYCD finalists? Blonde teenage cheerleader from the south named Lauren and Gosh-Shucks smalltown boy. (Kent was my favorite, though, so I was happy there.)]

    Absolutely! Scotty + Lauren = Kent + Lauren = Mollee + Nathan. For the past 2 seasons, Nigel’s been pushing the teen blonde cheerleader and her prom date as the TCOs on SYTYCD. So I stopped watching 2 seasons ago, when it felt more about producer manipulation than true appreciation of dance. Well, I still watch vids on this site, but I don’t watch on TV. This AI season totally felt like Nigel bringing his SYTYCD tactics to Idol.

  • http://ucsub.colorado.edu/~hansenkd/BrahmsGuides MahlerFan

    In spite of the fact that Scotty has lead the pack on Dial Idol all season long, I believe Lauren Alaina will be the season 10 winner. No way do Uncle Nigel & Co want 4 white male winners in a row and for whatever reason I think they see Lauren as the potential second coming of Carrie Underwood.

    So…they’ll lie about the vote?

  • spanishfan

    Thank heavens for Cookie, my one and only reason for watching tomorrow. But the finale I will enjoy, what with the Idol Winners and Haley Reinhart.

  • Tess

    I can say with all certainty that if I was as naive as I was during the early seasons of American Idol I would still know that Scotty has been the leader and probably the viewers’ favorite. It’s like someone having the IT factor…you can’t explain it but you know it when you see it….and the only season I missed the final 2 as early as top 10 was season 5….and I’ve called the winner 7out of 8 times after finals night (didn’t watch season 9 after top 10).

  • nprins

    I am a huge Haley/James fan …and thats the finale I was hoping for…Scotty is my number 4 and Lauren ranks up there with one of my least favorite contestants ever….
    so I hope Scotty wins…
    Somehow I have a feeling Lauren is going to “pull it out”…or “be awarded” it whether she truly wins or not…and if that happens , truly not sure I can watch again…cause it will be apparent that something is not kosher

  • Lisa

    Lauren’s just as good as Carrie was on her Idol run, if not better.

    I think Lauren has some good vocals but in no way shape or form is she even in the same league as Carrie is with vocals. Carrie would have beat her in vocals alone had they competed together.

    I get Lauren’s fans like her & want her to have great success but another Carrie? no. Just wish her well & hope she has 1/4 of the success Carrie has. That will still make her a star.

    I would be thrilled if Haley had 1/4 the success of Carrie and Haley can sing circles and cartwheels vocally around Lauren.

  • Reflections On Life

    Lauren’s just as good as Carrie was on her Idol run, if not better

    IIRC, Carrie held glory notes for 15 secs on AI, and she belts as high as any of the glory-note divas. She also sings some of the most vocally challenging country songs, in terms of high belts, breath control, long phrasing, quick pacing, etc. The only thing I’d say in Lauren’s favor is that her high belts are more pleasant in tone than Carrie’s, more similar to Kelly’s.

    I can’t see most of Haley’s voters really giving a crap which of the two wins. The majority of them won’t vote.

    I agree. I won’t be voting. Not as a boycott. Just don’t know why I’d pick one over the other. So if I vote, it will be because of performance. If someone has that elusive “moment” that moves me, I’ll maybe vote for them. Else it’s just a debutante concert to me. Good luck to the kids, they are both winners!

  • jammasta

    “So it will depend on what the ADULTS manage to do in the wee hours of the voting. IMO. And I don’t think many want Scotty to win, so Lauren has that advantage.”

    Can’t quote properly, but I think Scotty has more of the adult vote than Lauren. I personally know probably one out of 40 people who vote Lauren and the other 39 are Scotty. all adults.

  • V8Adam

    I think Scot-ty will & should win to complete the KLC curse……
    will make for fun new theories/conspiracies/speculations next season.

  • http://twitter.com/cara_lee pj

    I agree. I won’t be voting. Not as a boycott. Just don’t know why I’d pick one over the other. So if I vote, it will be because of performance. If someone has that elusive “moment” that moves me, I’ll maybe vote for them. Else it’s just a debutante concert to me. Good luck to the kids, they are both winners!

    Agreed. I would have to be particularly impressed with one or more of their performances to have the patience to vote.

    I think Scotty will win. I don’t think it will be that close.

    That being said, I will pick Lauren in the pool. I am tied for third place, but others who had Scotty as their overall pick from the beginning (36pts) will overtake me if he wins. So I am basically doomed if he wins, so I might as well go for the gold and pick Lauren!

  • shell29

    So…they’ll lie about the vote?

    Who says they’ll have to lie about the vote? I don’t even think that will be necessary. Nigel has other tricks up his sleeve. If Lauren is indeed the one they want, there are other ways to sway viewers to vote for her over Scotty. I could be wrong, but I just don’t think TPTB want to deal with the “Can a female ever win Idol again” stuff that would surely follow a Scotty victory.

  • keware

    I’ve been waiting to find the right place to post this…but I saw Josh Turner in concert this past weekend. Great show. Gorgeous man.
    Anyhow, half way through his set he says to the large crowd, “Guess you heard that I visited a certain American Idol contestant last weekend”. A nice sized portion of the crowd (and not a teen in sight) screamed “Scotty” and cheered loud. Lots of girls and guys in the 20-30 year old range.
    Josh also mentioned that his own website had over 1.6 million hits since last Saturday. He talked about the visit and “the certain American Idol contestant” for about a half a minute. I was thrilled. It was odd that he never said Scotty’s name, although the crowd did. It seemed pretty clear that he was not saying it intentionally. But he has certainly personally benefitted from the exposure and said so.
    The whole thing led me to believe that Scotty has more fans in the young adult range than I realized.

  • Coldbluesteel

    I’ll admit I’m a Haley fantard as well. But in her interviews, she’s indicated that someone told her “it was close”.

    What else would you tell a young lady who just lost? It wasn’t even close? They killed you? You call that a contest?
    It may have been close or someone may have been kind.

  • gabriel oak

    Lauren’s just as good as Carrie was on her Idol run, if not better. She has tons more charisma on stage than Carrie ever did and just as good a singing voice.

    I don’t see tons of charisma in Lauren at all. But you’re right, Carrie was boring the year she won and has turned into a superstar. It’s because she’s blonde and marketable.

  • larc

    Coldbluesteel says:
    What else would you tell a young lady who just lost? It wasn’t even close? They killed you? You call that a contest?
    It may have been close or someone may have been kind.

    They probably didn’t lie about it. I suspect the vote was very close. Lauren’s presence in the Bottom 2 while Haley was safe in Top 5 week wasn’t an illusion.

  • fuzzywuzzy

    So in summation, I guess Scotty is the one who should win this thing. Given the demographics of the voters, the fact that he’s never been awful, always at ease, and has grown in this competition, I hope he wins.

    While I think that Scotty has been pretty solid in his vocals, I do think that he’s had moments of “awfulness” in some of the upbeat songs where he’s been too goofy in his onstage mannerisms. Nevertheless, he’ll easily win. I predict that the margin won’t be close.

  • http://ucsub.colorado.edu/~hansenkd/BrahmsGuides MahlerFan

    Who says they’ll have to lie about the vote? I don’t even think that will be necessary. Nigel has other tricks up his sleeve. If Lauren is indeed the one they want, there are other ways to sway viewers to vote for her over Scotty. I could be wrong, but I just don’t think TPTB want to deal with the “Can a female ever win Idol again” stuff that would surely follow a Scotty victory.

    They have no choice, and eventually, they’ll realize that the only way a female ever WILL win again is if there are substantial changes to the voting system. Too late for that this season.

  • jammasta

    If producers want a girl to win again, maybe they should cast them better. We had 4 pageantbots in Thia, Pia, Karen, and Ashthon, the country pageantbot Lauren, the Growler who took forever to gain momentum Haley, and pitchy reggae singer-dancer Naima. Naima and post-RITD Haley were the only girls worth voting for IMO, and they’re both gone. The other 5 ran together too much. If Lauren Turner were there instead of Karen or Haley (after she butchered Fallin’), things would have changed a bit.

    With the 6 guys we had more distinct styles and less robotic personalities, so they started with a huge advantage already. The deep-voiced country guy, the metal/classic rock dude, the jazzy upright bass player, Rod Stewart Jr., gospel R&B diva, and The R&B singing lovechild of Tony Danza and Joey from Friends.

    TPTB need to cast more distinct and present women like Crystal or even Siobhan. They should also pretend Lee never won :P

  • http://ucsub.colorado.edu/~hansenkd/BrahmsGuides MahlerFan

    What else would you tell a young lady who just lost? It wasn’t even close? They killed you? You call that a contest?
    It may have been close or someone may have been kind.

    Evidence from DialIdol very STRONGLY suggests the former.

  • http://ucsub.colorado.edu/~hansenkd/BrahmsGuides MahlerFan

    The other 5 ran together too much. If Lauren Turner were there instead of Karen or Haley (after she butchered Fallin’

    She “butchered” Fallin’? Must have missed that. The only songs she sang that were ever subpar were the Whitney song and “Call Me.” The problem with Haley in the Top 24 wasn’t what she sang, it was what she was wearing. The skintight, very short-skirted ensemble might have been a good idea after she had established herself a bit, but at that point, it distracted from the song and labeled her as the contestant for whom horny teenage boys might vote. True, it may have gotten her in the Top 13, but it put a stigma on her going forward.

  • Pam

    The R&B singing lovechild of Tony Danza and Joey from Friends.

    I can’t even sit here with a straight face now after reading that. Too funny! Poor Stefano. lol

    They should also pretend Lee never won

    I think that has already happened to a certain degree. I think last season was such an embarrassment saleswise for Lee and Crystal (even though I think she is super talented and should have won) and ratings wise, plus factor in that Ellen quit, and Kara was fired, and Nigel was brought back to basically to hopefully reverse some of the mistakes that were made last year that resulted in such a dismally rated season since Ken Warwick is so clueless and has no idea what he is doing.

    Even though there has been a lot of judge and producer manipulations this season, I’ve really been entertained this year. Even though on the one hand, I could choke Nigel for his twitter rants with fans, the ratings haven’t been too shabby this time and when you consider Pia and James’ eliminations created some good buzz for the show, on the other hand, I can say he’s brilliant where that is concerned. ;)

  • http://ucsub.colorado.edu/~hansenkd/BrahmsGuides MahlerFan

    Every adult male fan I have talked to in my area that cared enough to vote for AI, both straight and gay, was voting for Haley in the Top 3. I think that REALLY says something about the voting demographics.

    For some reason, she really seemed to appeal to gay men (exhibits A and B, Slezak and Lambert), and her appeal to straight men is very obvious.

    While there was a sizable number of female voters who did like Haley, I think that the estrogen voting brigade largely went for Scotty and/or Lauren, and we all know that far more females than males vote.

  • BootStar

    I’ve thought Scotty was going to win the whole thing ever since his audition, but I hope Lauren pulls off an upset! (Not that I intend to vote.)

  • wolfsbane813

    I’ve thought Scotty was going to win the whole thing ever since his audition, but I hope Lauren pulls off an upset! (Not that I intend to vote.)

    no offense to you or anybody else who says stuff like this, but this is a problem and something that really bothers me.

    if you want to see a certain result, do something about it. that’s why i always vote, regardless if i feel like they don’t even have a chance in hell. at least i’d know that i did my best to get a certain result, even if that result doesn’t happen.

    that’s why i’ll be voting as much as i can for lauren tomorrow night.

  • MayMirabella

    Since Haley and Naima and Lauren Turner and Kendra are not the final ……I am fine with whomever wins. But I think there is no stopping the Scotty win. I think he will win easily in a landslide. We may never know for certain if it was a landslide but that is my guess.

    I am not fan of either of them but I think Scotty will win.

  • NOLA

    joshturnermusic Josh Turner
    Check out this behind the scene video of Josh and @SMcCreeryAI10! http://youtu.be/0-lH8mpbGno
    16 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply

    So cool!

  • OldHag

    larc says:
    05/23/2011 at 1:18 pm

    SpenserJ says:
    After the nuts of wonder, and the Baby Lock Them Doors montage, I was sure that Scotty was getting a fodder edit.

    That may have been exactly what it was. But fodder edits are valid only when the voters buy into them. They didn’t in this case. My guess is the Scotty train has reached a speed that puts it well beyond Idol’s control at this point. All they can do is stand and watch with their clothes whipped about as it rushes by.

    I thought he was set up for cannon fodder too – or bait-and-switch for votes for Lauren. But the kid has something. One of my mid-20 male co-workers said Scotty was like an old pair of house shoes, you’re just comfortable with the experience. Maybe that is what people who want “moments” and diversity don’t get. Some people like, even prefer, the predictable.

  • jammasta

    She “butchered” Fallin’? Must have missed that.

    Nope, you probably didn’t. Opinions varied. Some thought it was really good. I thought she absolutely murdered the song horrifically and I wanted her off my TV until she did Rolling in the Deep and won me over.

    Question is, who would be the better winner? Lauren has the powerful voice, but she seems like one of the least emotionally mature of any teenager who has ever made the Idol Top 12. I really don’t think she’s ready for the music industry. She started off sassy and a bit off-putting (I didn’t have a problem with it), so she seems to have tried to fix it but overcompensated.

    Scotty hasn’t degenerated and he takes criticism well, he’s remained consistent, and I think he’s overall the better performer and storyteller, so I’d vote him through.

    By pretending Lee lost, I meant pretending Crystal won >_>.

  • SpenserJ

    They should also pretend Lee never won

    jammasta, you need to head on over to the Evening Headlines thread (or the song reveal thread). You will see that they’re apparently taking your advice. Lee got the ultimate dis from TPTB.

  • Pam

    jammasta, you need to head on over to the Evening Headlines thread (or the song reveal thread). You will see that they’re apparently taking your advice. Lee got the ultimate dis from TPTB.

    Yes, Spence is right. You called it. I felt you were right though. ;)

  • zzatrms

    Unless Lee has a prior appt., I think this is a terrible thing to do to an Idol winner. He should be there.

  • Willis

    “Who Will Win American Idol Season 10?” Scotty of course. Oh, was this a rhetorical question?

    This will be the first time since I started watching S5 that I won’t cast a vote in the finale. I really have no preference. Looking forward to Wednesday though!

    Funny, all three of my non-voter Idol fan co-workers independently said they aren’t watching tomorrow. Not out of anger, just out of indifference. All thought that either James or Haley should have been in the finals. Of course, we finally have nice weather out, so that may be part of it ;)

  • karenc

    Mahlerfan:

    Instituting a voting limit (meaning a top number of votes per device) would have so many positive ramifications that it blows my mind it hasn’t been done yet.

    Maybe they haven’t done it because it would significantly decrease the amount of votes. They seem to use how many votes as an indicator of how popular the season is. If the votes decreased by that much now, it would
    1. Look like the new season is less popular than previous seasons because of decreased votes

    2. Make the results the past few years seem suspicious, because people will really realize how much power voting was going on the past few years. Most of the general public doesn’t even know this goes on and this might bring it to their attention if suddenly the votes decreased.

    Though if they did do this it would probably be best to not reveal the vote totals, but this might look suspicious as well.

  • karenc

    I’m not a fan of either of them. I think Scotty is a stronger performer. But I think that what could happen is that Lauren might win because she is more mainstream than Scotty is. She would be more likely to win votes from fan of other contestants.

    I also think it depends on how they do tomorrow night.

  • http://ucsub.colorado.edu/~hansenkd/BrahmsGuides MahlerFan

    Nope, you probably didn’t. Opinions varied. Some thought it was really good. I thought she absolutely murdered the song horrifically and I wanted her off my TV until she did Rolling in the Deep and won me over.

    Wasn’t Moanin’ the week before that? I thought that was the moment she really won the viewership over–not that Casey wasn’t great as well, but she was the real star of that very unique “Idol” moment.

  • Willis

    Absolutely! Scotty + Lauren = Kent + Lauren = Mollee + Nathan. For the past 2 seasons, Nigel’s been pushing the teen blonde cheerleader and her prom date as the TCOs on SYTYCD.

    I think you all are so right, and on to something with Uncle Nigel.

  • mozart4898

    I said last week that I figured Lauren would be going home and that Haley was going to be in the finale with Scotty, and I picked Haley to upset Scotty. So obviously I have no f*cking idea what I’m talking about, lol.

    It really doesn’t matter much to me which one of them wins – I like them both, and the one night I actually voted, 2 of the 3 I voted for were…Scotty and Lauren. I guess if I have a preference it’d be Lauren, but it’s not like I’m going to be distraught if Scotty wins (certainly not like last year, which to be honest I’m still not over). In fact I might consider buying both of their albums depending on what exactly they release.

    That said, while I think Scotty would be considered the favorite, I also could see a large majority of the “undecided” or “casual” voters breaking for Lauren. Scotty has appeared to be winning the whole season which sometimes turns people off right at the end. Scotty also has a very limited style – with the right song selections Lauren would stand out as much “less country” than him. Plus, there’s the folks who just plain want a girl to win.

    If I had to guess, I’d put the chances of a Scotty win at 60%, and Lauren at 40%. Somewhat more likely Scotty wins, but I would say by no means a slam dunk. In fact, I actually think this is a case where performances tomorrow night WILL mean a good bit…unless Scotty really did have 44 million votes last week to Lauren’s 26 million, and there really isn’t much of an uptick in voting in the finale from last week. Likely that Scotty will be solid but not incredible on all 3 songs tomorrow night…if Lauren could somehow pull off her best performance of the season in one of her 3 songs tomorrow night and be solid on the other 2, she’ll even the odds almost immediately.

    On a couple other things…

    I remember watching Scotty’s homecoming here last weekend (thanks mj) and from what I remember not only were there Garner peeps there but the newscaster even mentioned people coming in from out of state for his homecoming as well. I guess until then I didn’t realize what an unstoppable force Scotty was. heh I don’t live in Garner. I’m actually on the SE coast of the state but one of our local Bojangles restaurants has “vote for Scotty” on their sign out in front. I thought that was sweet. He was a smart boy bragging about their food. Heh

    I’m not exactly sure where Garner is in NC, but the thought of people coming in from out of state isn’t exactly that suprising. When Crystal had her homecoming last year in Toledo, there were people from Kentucky I believe there, I know there were news crews from Fort Wayne, Indiana and Detroit, Michigan, people came from Cleveland and Cincinnati which, while in the same state, are 2 and 3 hour drives respectively (actually, both of those cities are further than Fort Wayne and Detroit from Toledo). Point is, it doesn’t seem unusual for some people to come hundreds of miles to be at a homecoming – so out of state isn’t surprising at all. And I don’t think much can be inferred by pure numbers either – the majority of those in attendance will be fairly local, and it’s obvious that some town/cities are much bigger than others. Local publicity of the events may also vary – it’s not like the details are broadcast on national TV for each of the top 3 so not all of them have equal local coverage of their plans.

    2. Make the results the past few years seem suspicious, because people will really realize how much power voting was going on the past few years. Most of the general public doesn’t even know this goes on and this might bring it to their attention if suddenly the votes decreased.

    Though if they did do this it would probably be best to not reveal the vote totals, but this might look suspicious as well.

    My guess is that most of the public doesn’t really pay that much attention to the vote totals that are announced – even if they were to announce the totals each week after limiting votes per line/computer/etc., 95% of viewers won’t even bat an eye. And those who would bat an eye would be those “in the bubble” who know the reason for the big difference anyways.

  • jammasta

    Wasn’t Moanin’ the week before that? I thought that was the moment she really won the viewership over–not that Casey wasn’t great as well, but she was the real star of that very unique “Idol” moment.

    Holy nipples, forgot about that. I generally forget results night except for who went home, but yeah that was a great moment from her. Still took a while to get there.

  • jammasta

    Wasn’t Moanin’ the week before that? I thought that was the moment she really won the viewership over–not that Casey wasn’t great as well, but she was the real star of that very unique “Idol” moment.

    Holy nipples, forgot about that. I generally forget results night except for who went home, but yeah that was a great moment from her. Still took a while to get there.

    Plus, there’s the folks who just plain want a girl to win.

    Honestly, I don’t like this reasoning. Probably because I’m still not over last year’s tragedy result as well. I would like a girl to win, but only if they’re good/interesting/etc. Lauren IS good and somewhat interesting but just pales to Scotty IMO. Granted, I haven’t heard anyone say “Scotty’s my favorite but I’m voting for Lauren because I want a girl to win!”, but for some reason I still don’t like the reasoning. Maybe I’m just extremely bitter about Crystal losing (I’m still really harsh on Lee, for example) that I don’t want a girl to win unless they’re as amazing as she is.

    I’d put Scotty’s chances higher than 60%. Probably in the 70th percentile, maybe even 80th. It’s not impossible for Lauren to win, but the chances are quite low IMO. I think it’s too late for her to gain momentum in the votes and swing them in her favor. If anything, she faltered enough last week that she may have lost it. Any attempt at the bus to Scotty will just create another S7 situation. But what do I know? All I know is, DialIdol, Scotty’s a teenage guy, Scotty’s hair is less wild, Kris(Ty) Lee Cook will have to be completed, ScoTTy COOke MCCrEEry, blah blah blah.

  • http://www.latenightbanter.com MBLovesPaula

    jammasta says:
    or Haley (after she butchered Fallin’)

    Haley’s “Fallin” may have been a bit over-sexualized but she definitely didn’t butcher it!

    However even as a Haley fantard, I can admit that Kendra Chantelle’s version was better. Have a listen: http://bit.ly/lLJ37J

  • NOLA

    I said last week that I figured Lauren would be going home and that Haley was going to be in the finale with Scotty, and I picked Haley to upset Scotty. So obviously I have no f*cking idea what I’m talking about, lol.

    mozart, I love your honesty :)

  • Valentin432

    Maybe I’m just extremely bitter about Crystal losing (I’m still really harsh on Lee, for example) that I don’t want a girl to win unless they’re as amazing as she is.

    If everyone is expecting for the next Kelly, Fantasia, Carrie or whoever their favorite girl is to get to the finale before they want a girl to win, we could wait 10 more seasons before that happens.

  • sue

    I had Scotty winning from the very beginning in the pool but I don’t know anymore. This season has been a little unpredictable from week to week. I think that dang Jimmy Fallon is right and Lauren will take it. lolz. I really don’t care at all who wins. Scotty seems like a more confident winner but it doesn’t matter, America is weird and they will probably have writtle LauRen win this dang show. I really don’t care at this point since I don’t think I will win the pool anyway. :) I just hope tomorrow isn’t a total snoozefest and I am not voting which makes it nice. Plus if Lauren wins she will showcase lots of waterworks for us. The girl is so emotional.

    I agree with the comments above, I would like a girl to win but this girl has to be exceptional and the only one that fit this season was Haley and she isn’t “in it to win it” anymore. boo :( Plus I will trust dial idol this week since they were right last week and they are never wrong when it gets down to 2. Lets see if Scotty is going to run away with this or is Lauren going to come back and take him down. Oh wait, “The Voice” is on tomorrow too… :)

  • http://twitter.com/cara_lee pj

    Sue, totally agree with you that I don’t much care, except if Lauren wins I still have a chance in the pool ;-)

    Oh, and not even thinking about voting unless someone does something truly stellar. Like both kids, but not enough to hit that redial button.

    I’m not worried about DI because I don’t have chance in placing 3rd if Scotty wins.

    I hope Lauren wears something cute and pulls some heart strings on that KLC song they gave her. It will be more effective if they don’t pan to her mom.

  • http://twitter.com/cara_lee pj

    Personally, although I appreciated Crystal, I like Haley much more. Not as much as Iraheta, but she comes close. I love Kelly, but she was before my time and I’m not sure about her trajectory on the show. Carrie is a little too ice princess for me still, although she’s getting better. I admire her voice.

    That said, I wouldn’t NOT vote for a girl just ’cause they didn’t match up to a girl from another season. Color me stupid, but I thought we were supposed to judge them all against the current crop of contestants.

  • NOLA

    I had Scotty winning from the very beginning in the pool but I don’t know anymore. This season has been a little unpredictable from week to week.

    That’s why I don’t play the pool anymore.
    Too much conflict of interest, for me. LOL

  • http://ucsub.colorado.edu/~hansenkd/BrahmsGuides MahlerFan

    If everyone is expecting for the next Kelly, Fantasia, Carrie or whoever their favorite girl is to get to the finale before they want a girl to win, we could wait 10 more seasons before that happens.

    You’re understating it. Under the current voting system, it is impossible for a female to EVER win this show again. I don’t know why anybody questions that absolute truth. This is the primary reason why Nigel is thinking about tweaking it.

  • http://ucsub.colorado.edu/~hansenkd/BrahmsGuides MahlerFan

    Haley’s “Fallin” may have been a bit over-sexualized but she definitely didn’t butcher it!

    It was absolutely, more than a “bit” oversexualized, and I think that this ultimately may have hurt Haley somewhat. The outfit was a poor choice for a live-show debut. She was immediately pigeonholed as “bait” for young male viewership, a viewing and voting demographic that “Idol” desperately needs to increase. It worked–she was voted in and didn’t need the wildcard–but it masked the fact that she was so much, much more than a hot pair of legs that could sing in a sultry way. Absurd Scarnato comparisons started to fly left and right. How ridiculous does it seem to compare her to her far less talented but equally leggy namesake NOW?? I actually think that the lipstick massacre humanized her a bit after that, but it took a while for the country to see her as anything more than pleasant-sounding eye candy. If there is anything that disappointed me about “Fallin’,” it was that.