Lauren Alaina to Win American Idol via Betting Odds

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The current bettings odds via Bodog Sportsbook has Lauren Alaina at the top of their list with odds of 9/2 to win American Idol

Pia Tosacano is second at 5/1, Casey Abrams in 3rd at 11/2 Paul McDonald 4th at 7/1 and Jacob Lusk 5th at 8/1.

The site also lists random categories like “Will Casey Abrams and Randy Jackson both appear on stage together playing the bass at any point during the season?” and pits competitors against each other to determine who will go farther.

It’s always amusing to look back at the odds when the season is over. I believe 9th place finisher, Andrew Garcia was at the head of the pack before the semi-finals began last year. You just never know.

Odds after the JUMP…


Current Odds to Win American Idol Season 10:
Lauren Alaina 9/2
Pia Toscano 5/1
Casey Abrams 11/2
Paul McDonald 7/1
Jacob Lusk 8/1
Thia Megia 8/1
James Durbin 9/1
Scott McCreery 9/1
Karen Rodriguez 15/1
Stefano Langone 15/1
Naima Adedapo 25/1
Haley Reinhart 30/1
Ashthon Jones 30/1

 
  • TheOther

    I would happy if either Lauren or Pia won. Both seem to have a lot of potential and I can also see them being marketable. At least America got off to the right start by voting the more talented guys in the Top 5 – and shutting out the more obvious pretty boys like Jovanny, Jordan, Tim. And IMO, Stefano is really just average and I hope he does not oust someone out of the Top 10 who is more deserving like Naima.

  • Valentin432

    I think Scotty would be a good value bet right now, not that he would automatically win but I think his odds are better than 9 to 1.
    I suppose they placed Pia and Lauren A at the top and Thia so high because they think the show wants a girl to win.

  • Studio57

    Those odds pretty much coincide with who I think the top 8 will be. Can’t narrow it down any more but I think these ones don’t stand a chance of winning:

    Karen Rodriguez 15/1
    Stefano Langone 15/1
    Naima Adedapo 25/1
    Haley Reinhart 30/1
    Ashthon Jones 30/1

    I also think Jacob will fall out of favor fast. The guy just doesn’t have the look, and he has not shown that he can be current at all. I just see him sailing through for awhile singing Luther and Donny songs.

  • Kirsten

    I suppose they placed Pia and Lauren A at the top and Thia so high because they think the show wants a girl to win.

    Does the show really want Lauren to win? They already have two blond female country stars on the 19R roster. One of them with tonnes more spunk and the other with a better voice. I suppose blond female country stars are money-makers, though. I wonder if she might be a red herring, but Nigel doesn’t usually do subtle, so probably not.

    There is a long season to go. Many a front-runner stumbles.

  • kcostell

    It’s weird trying to predict this season…especially on the guy’s side there’s a bunch of singers who I can see having the solid support of a decent sized bloc of voters, but not the wide appeal to get the majority needed in the final two.

    Conversely, I could easily see a “shock elimination” type situation around the top 3 or 4 where (say) the final three is a pair or polarizing contestants like Paul and Scotty, together with some contestant X with more widespread but less fanatical appeal. X could beat either Paul or Scotty head to head (getting most of Paul’s votes if matched against Scotty and vice versa), but ends up getting shut out in a “shock elimination” in the top 3.

  • Pixie Baker

    I find Lauren A very talented but very over confident. She also seems to talk back to the judges….that does not always workout to your favor.(and I hate how she plays up to the judges…arg!) I will say though, for being so young, she seems comfortable on the stage.

  • TheOther

    I think among the girls 19 will want to keep Lauren around, definitely more so than Karen, Hailey or Naima. And I agree about Jacob. But I also think Casey may succumb to that as well. Casey is a good show contestant, but not really sure if he can translate that popularity to the marketplace. And I can Scotty being a victim of the early front runner stumbles. Brian Mansfield said it best that Scotty is an upstanding guy, but his inexperience was very obvious in Hollywood when he had to learn a new song. And the teen male County artist has never been marketable.

  • Valentin432

    Does the show really want Lauren to win? They already have two blond female country stars on the 19R roster. One of them with tonnes more spunk and the other with a better voice. I suppose blond female country stars are money-makers, though. I wonder if she might be a red herring, but Nigel doesn’t usually do subtle, so probably not.

    They have 4 white dark haired male rockers and they didn’t seem to reject Lee during the show, so three blonde country singers wouldn’t be a stretch. Even more so because those two have achieved a fair amount of success at their level and it’s been 5 years now since season 5.

    Furthermore, IMO she’s the only one that could have a strong enough fanbase to reach the finale with the country + teen voters. Pia or Thia would win if they are finalist because they would appeal to a wide range of casual viewers but I don’t think they will get there against the popular male contestants with the tradional AI fanbase.

  • primeminister

    My money is on Scotty to win it all. Lauren may have a stronger, more versatile voice, but her personality is grating. Scotty, on the other hand, has done a great job in establishing himself as a southern gentleman.

    Though I like Paul, I don’t think he will get much further than Top 5 or so. He definitely doesn’t have the widespread musical appeal like David Cook and Kris Allen had to make it to the top. So, all this talk about him winning because he’s a WGWG cracks me up.

    I also don’t see Pia making it past Lauren or Scotty.

  • TheOther

    Scotty, on the other hand, has done a great job in establishing himself as a southern gentleman.

    I think that’s been the disconnect – Scotty getting votes because he is an upstanding guy. Based on what happened in Hollywood, Scotty really needs to prove that he is not a one trick pony. I Hope You Dance is a hugely well known Country (and pop) song. The fact that he completely butchered that questions his ability to be adaptable and to learn quickly.

  • Valentin432

    Though I like Paul, I don’t think he will get much further than Top 5 or so. He definitely doesn’t have the widespread musical appeal like David Cook and Kris Allen had to make it to the top. So, all this talk about him winning because he’s a WGWG cracks me up.

    Yep I’m still cracking up about last season too, no way a third WGWG would win right? But Lee had all the people who don’t care about pitch issues voting for him so I guess he would appeal to a wider audience.

    Vegas thinks it’s so unlikely that Paul wins they place him fourth on their list.

  • primeminister

    Yep I’m still cracking up about last season too, no way a third WGWG would win right? But Lee had all the people who don’t care about pitch issues voting for him so I guess he would appeal to a wider audience

    That’s I left Lee off the “wide musical appeal list”. >.>

    Back to this season, I think Paul > Lee, but there are just so many strong contestants (Scotty, Lauren, Pia) that I just can’t see him taking it all.

    I think having Casey in the competition makes it interesting – but I don’t see him winning either.

  • claudette

    Well, at this point most of them have been “one trick ponies” as they have stayed to what they think are their strengths to get through. I mean Paul singing Rod Stewart? Exact imitation. Jacob and over-singing glory notes? James and his yell? Casey and his almost non-singing being overlooked because he is the class clown and a very very talented musician?

    That’s exactly what all them should do. It’s a competition and they’d be pretty stupid at this point to experiment much. It’s been shown that you don’t have to win to be successful. What has failed so many Idols is what they have done after Idol. With Jimmy involved, they aren’t going to care who wins. They are going to focus on who they think they can mold into the best star and make the most money.

  • sagi

    Lauren has been the chosen one since before the show even started, all the way back to Nigel’s twitter. Now the judges remarks and the narrative of her being “the ONE” is just too much. Why even watch the show if they already have their minds made up? Even if someone else wins the title, it is pretty obvious who’s contract will get all the bells and whistles from 19. The rest of the show is for the +21mil. viewers watching the sponsor ads that Idol gets paid for.

  • keware

    BetUS has Scotty as the favorite to win. And in reply to the comment above: Scotty isn’t a one trick pony. He said he sang John Meyer and Frank Sinatra during the first round of auditions. He also said after Hollywood Week that he had never forgotten lyrics to a song before. We only really saw a small clip of I Hope you Dance. My guess is he sang the rest well.

  • thesheriff

    My personal choice for top 2 would be Paul and Niama. Scott can stay til May too – with James. I’d probably only consider buying Paul and Niama for my ipod though.

    If Alaina never made it to another taping of the show – that’d be fine with me. I think Pia is running a tight second on that list for me right now-she’s like ice.

    I think top 5 will be far different from my want list though…boo.

  • claudette

    David Archuletta forgot the words and totally butchered his song at top 12 and made it to 2nd place. I think a lot of top 12 screwed up in some way in Hollywood.

    I do think the really young kids like Thia, Lauren, and Scotty will be allowed a stumble by the majority of the voting audience. These are just 16 and 17 kids. It’s amazing that they can do what they’ve already done and I think many appreciate that they have a longer learning curve and greater potential to grow. Just my opinion.

  • Elliegrll

    I don’t think that Lauren A. is a front runner. Except for singing an Aerosmith song, she hasn’t had a performance where she’s stood out. After the ladies performed on Wednesday, all of the talk on various media sites was about Pia and Thia, but I don’t even remember seeing Lauren getting a lot of press. On Thursday, most of the press was aimed at Stefano, and even after her group round, the talk was about how she wasn’t the best singer in her group, but she was the one who they kept. Maybe she will do something to standout, but for now, there are a lot of people getting more buzz than she’s getting.

  • emmuzka

    “The Chosen Ones” haven’t always won, not even close. (Maybe Ruben was the only winner that got pimped from the start?)

    It’s way too early to start making any educated guessess, but for fun, I’m saying that Scotty will win. (Young, male, cute, pleasant to lissten, not too controversial.)

    I could live with Scotty winning just fine. Now, if Lauren A. would win, then I would probably end up with those who would hope her to flop, and badly.

  • Eriko

    With the same voting system and demographic voting, a girl will be lucky to reach the top 3 IMO. The guys are stronger than last year, so if a girl didn´t win last year, a girl winning now seems to me be impossible. But it´s early and hopefully some pleasant surprises yet to come. My favorite so far is Casey Abrams. My fav last year was Crystal by a mile and Adam the year before. Hopefully 3 is a charm :)

  • Tess

    they aren’t going to care who wins

    We now know from experiencing it first hand that winning Idol is no guarantee of any kind of success and that loosing Idol doesn’t mean failure is ahead.

    I like how there is diversity in the top 13…this gives UMG a chance to throw out several idolettes into the recording world without the “Idol” tag competing again. I also think UMG is putting out idol songs on I-tunes just for the reason of gaging how successful they may become.

    And as far as gambling odds…I might put down a few bucks on some of the early odds. I could spend 10 bucks to potentially win a hundred or a hundred and fifty. Beats the odds of buying a lottery ticket.

  • Valentin432

    “The Chosen Ones” haven’t always won, not even close. (Maybe Ruben was the only winner that got pimped from the start?)

    Ruben, Fantasia, Carrie and maybee Jordin.
    Some argue that David C was TCO too.

  • Hazehel

    I think a smart person would place bets on some of the more unfancied guys in the list above. (Scotty and James so low?)

    It probably isn’t any guide as to who will win, but here’s a list of the number of fans listed in the official site forum for each of the contestants -

    James Durbin – 216
    Scotty McCreery – 191
    Paul McDonald – 138
    Pia Toscono – 121
    Casey Abrams – 108
    Lauren Alaina – 87
    Thia Megia – 79
    Stefano Langone – 52
    Jacob Lusk – 37
    Naima Adedapo – 19
    Haley Reinhart – 13
    Ashthon Jones – 3
    Karen Rodriguez – ?

    Of course that only showed what those who frequent that forum or post in that site like, but it’t an indication of something. Scotty seems to be popular in Facebook and MySpace, so together that at least suggests that he is one with a sizeable number of fans at the moment. But everything can change of course.

    I’d say however those who will be eliminated early would be the bottom 3 or 4 girls.

  • Lovesyesha

    I honestly can’t envision a top 6 without lauren and pia. I think thia has a great shot of being in there too, but I think karen could upset that with the latino votes. Also, I really doubt that scotty will win. He is very talented, but I think as the shows go on, some will lose interest in him because he isn’t versatile and go for singers like pia and lauren. either way, it is going to be a great season.

  • johanna

    If I remember correctly at this stage of the game some of the betting sites where forecasting Megan Joy to win in Season 8. LOL

  • t2

    Paul and Don Was = made of SQUEE!! Don Was is the king of getting the most out of an unusual voice.

  • TheOther

    It eventually comes down to who can sell records in the real world. Just because someone is popular on AI, does not mean they will duplicate that success where it counts – in the marketplace. In the real world, Lauren is likely more marketable than Scotty. The teen female Country artist traditionally have always fared way better than the male teen Country artist; the latter’s success is almost nonexistent.

    Casey, Jacob, Pia are all great singers. But in the real world, Pia is more relevant and likely will be able to sell more records.

  • musicality

    I guess no one informed Sportsbooks about American Idol’s WGWG syndrome.

  • kmd

    I think Lauren just might win it. I think Scotty and Casey will do well also.

  • monleo1705

    Pfffft… Let them try and brainwash us all they want about Lauren Alaina. We all know as history has shown, that pimping has never helped but hurt the frontrunner’s chances from winning. In fact, I’m happy to let Pia settle for being second place or even a dark horse right now, just so that when her outstanding performance comes, she’ll knock it out of the park so hard that Nigel never knew Lauren existed.

    You just watch – Pia seems to be the second coming of Leona Lewis. Same quiet beginning, quiet confidence and nailed it every week.

  • rayni

    I see Scotty going deep. Final 3 deep – him, Lauren and Pia. Pia’s got that quiet under-the-radar thing Carrie had. I love that we’ve got so much talent to speculate about. And maybe it’s because I’m southern, but Lauren and Scotty are the kinds of personalities I see every day – I love their personalities. The teen girls on my facebook feed are already loving Scotty. My frauen test group are for Paul but he won’t stay til the end – he won’t need to and he knows that.

  • monleo1705

    Ruben, Fantasia, Carrie and maybee Jordin.
    Some argue that David C was TCO too.

    Honestly I always thought Archie was TCO from that season, even tho I’m a Cook fan. And Carrie’s season was quite obviously down to Bo and her with some thinking Constantine would make it far. Jordin’s season was a no-brainer. She was the best out of that lackluster season. Taylor was the upset for Katherine McPhee and Chris daughtry. Never bothered watching AI1 or AI2… So yeah, not always TCO wins.

  • teacup

    I’ll be happy with either Lauren or Scotty winning as of right now. I’m just so tired of the WGWG trend. It needs to end.

  • yummmybanana

    Personally, I wouldn’t count Stefano out. I think he just might be a dark horse. On Thursday, he proved that not only does he have a fantastic voice, but that he also has the emotional drive and passion that will give each of his performance that something extra. It also doesn’t hurt that he has, as JLo put it, “movie star good looks” (although it really wouldn’t be that difficult to be more attractive than the rest of the guys this season…just being honest). He probably won’t win, but to put him at 10th place is wayyyyyyy underestimating his appeal. I think he has a serious shot of making it to the final five.

    I don’t think Lauren Alaina will win, just simply because of the fact that the frontrunner at this stage of the competition never wins. The only exceptions MIGHT be Ruben, Fantasia, and Carrie, but I think it is arguable whether or not they were the frontrunners in their seasons at this time.

    I do not see Jacob going as far as number 5. I just don’t think he’ll mobilize enough fans to get him that far. Also, why is Scotty so low on the list (number 8)? He already has a huge fanbase which I definitely think would take him past six eliminations.

  • larc

    It’s probably not worth paying a lot of attention to early odds. I found some from about this time last year (AI9 still had 16 in the running then). But it’s interesting to see where each person actually finished. Considering only the Top 12, where the odds would have put their expected finish is in parentheses.

    #3 Casey James +400 (#1 or #2)
    #2 Crystal Bowersox +400 (#1 or #2)
    #1 Lee Dewyze +500 (#3 or #4)
    #6 Siobhan Magnus +500 (#3 or #4)
    #9 Andrew Garcia +700 (#5)
    - Lilly Scott +1200
    - Alex Lambert +1400
    #8 Katie Stevens +1400 (#6)
    - Katelyn Epperly +1600
    #10 Didi Benami +2000 (#7)
    #5 Aaron Kelly +2500 (#8 or #9)
    #4* Michael Lynche +2500 (#8 or #9)
    #11 Paige Miles +2500 (#10)
    - Todrick Hall +5000
    #12 Lacey Brown +5000 (#11)
    #7 Tim Urban +6000 (#12)

    * Michael would have been voted off at #9 if not for the Judges’ Save

    http://blog.betvega.com/american-idol-odds-2010-released-by-betus-com/

  • http://mjsbigblog.com/luvadamlamberts-american-idol-tour-2009-washington-dc-re-cap.htm luvadamlambert

    Yeah,I dont think so…

  • bubblewrap

    I want Paul or Pia to win. Paul has such an unusual voice, but I find it captivating. I really like Pia and her voice. Lauren’s good, but she’s too overconfident. If the judges give her a bad review, I feel like she’s going to stomp her feet and throw a fit. I just don’t like Scotty. Something about him bothers me. I still don’t see how a country boy doesn’t know the words to “I Hope You Dance.”

  • tomr

    I could get rich???? If only I was a betting man, I could make a bunndle if my previous years records were any indication. My 3 favorites are Karen, Stephano, and Scott.They obviously don’t factor in likability. The “pimped” one hasn’t won since season 3.

  • Vital

    My personal choice for top 2 would be Paul and Niama. Scott can stay til May too – with James. I’d probably only consider buying Paul and Niama for my ipod though.

    Paul and Naima would be my top 2 as well at this point. :)

    The early odds will be fun to look back on that’s for sure.

    Even though Lauren may be a favorite on the show at this point, and thus pimped to no end, I don’t think I can see her winning. But we’ll see.

    I’d really hope that Naima can get people voting, since I really would like to see her win this year. I liked her at the beginning, but I also liked others as well so I wasn’t paying as much attention to her. She’s pretty great though vocally, so I look forward to seeing what she’d be able to bring to the stage in weeks to come. I’m hoping she’ll be able to surprise us more than she’s done before to defy those odds.
    I’m kind of being hopeful as to thinking she can do it. Being hopeful doesn’t really help, but it certainly couldn’t hurt either. ;p

  • Miss Blue

    I just can’t see Scott winning. Remember – as people are voted off, some of their fans are going to switch to another contestant.

    Who the heck is going to switch to Scott? Very, very, very low percentage, if any.

    Scott is so dramatically different that you are either in his corner from the get-go or he is not your cup of tea. I happen to loathe him, but for anyone who is backing Pia, Lauren, Paul, Jacob, Casey, Stefano – if they get cut, would you seriously switch your vote to Scott?

    And that’s what I think gets him out at the end of the day. He might lead in votes at the start of the season but I see that total dropping with each eliminated contestant.

  • lili_anne7

    Scott is so dramatically different that you are either in his corner from the get-go or he is not your cup of tea. I happen to loathe him, but for anyone who is backing Pia, Lauren, Paul, Jacob, Casey, Stefano – if they get cut, would you seriously switch your vote to Scott?

    That’s how I feel too. I would never vote for Scott because I can’t stand the way he sings. My favorites right now are probably Naima on the girls side, and Paul on the boys. If Scotty somehow manages to get into the finale, I’m rooting for anyone that is against him. I don’t even care if its someone like James, who kind of annoys me.

  • Susan

    Same here on Scotty…. country twangs are like nails on a chalkboard to me. I think I’ll be muting his performances. I was in another room when he sang on Tuesday night and was still yelling “make him stop” at the TV.

    Oh — and my friend and I have decided Stefano looks like a young Matt LeBlanc.

  • bubblewrap

    @Susan-That’s who he looks like! Thank you! He reminded me of someone, but I couldn’t figure out who.

    I’m rooting for Paul, Stefano, and Pia. And Naima.

  • Lovesyesha

    Personally, I think the first few eliminations will most likely be girls leaving. However, after that I feel the guys will fall be the wayside. This is because it appears as if the fan block for each of the guys is relatively equal (no one guy is dominating the others). However, for the girls, there are about four (Thia, Pia, Lauren, and Naima) with strong fan bases that I think will carry them past a majority of the guys.

  • Jae

    Pia has to show me more persoanlity for me to get behind her. I like Lauren A and Scotty. I think Jaob has a fab voice but I don’t think he represents what the audience is looking for in an Idol. And he has to watch out for that peaking to soon thing like so many others have done and thus cheated themselves out of the running. Idol viewers like a growth arch. They like seeing an artist with potential blossom. WHich makes me think Paul, Jacob, maybe Pia won’t win in the end.

  • lucy

    Well, at this point most of them have been “one trick ponies” as they have stayed to what they think are their strengths to get through.

    Anybody can surprise you, I guess, but I would think a teenage apparent one-trick pony is somewhat more likely to actually be one. Teenagers haven’t had as much time to learn multiple styles of music or cultivate flexibility, especially when they start out really really loving one particular style of music, as SM seems to have done.

    I’m not ruling out voters loving a one-trick pony. But I’ll be very very surprised if McCrery doesn’t turn out to be such a pony, loved or not. Many of the slightly older people have probably been forced to sing enough gigs for pay to develop some additional tricks at least a little bit.

  • Falfor

    Personality goes a long way in this contest, even though it is a singing competition. Personality abounds here. I want to believe Pia will take it home. Quiet, unassuming and self assured. Her previous experience found on the internet shows she can do everything and she does it well. Even though most of the voters are female, in the end, voting for a female is not out of the question, if it is a good voice. Personally I dislike country, but I think Scott can sing country well. In Scott’s case, it really will not matter, because I can see country scooping him up just as the rock world scooped up Daughtry. There is some tough competition here and honestly, there are so many split favorites. I think (for the first time I can think of) the week to week voting will depend totally on song choice and how well they sing, instead of what seems to have happened in the past, someone rooting for a certain person because of who they are. With so many good singers here, this may be the first true singing competition this show will see. I do think Stefano and Naima are dark horses.

  • gangreen29

    I think people are underestimating Karen. Maybe I am overestimating her though I guess haha. I just think that she shouldn’t be on any list of people with no shot of winning. She has a great voice. She did reasonably well singing Mariah Carey, something most girls on the show fail at. She has a bubbly personality and is cute, but isn’t overly beautiful that someone would dismiss her for her looks. She will have a lot of the Hispanic viewers voting for her if she continues to sing in Spanish every once in awhile. She can’t win solely on that but it could help her if she catches on with a lot of America and in addition has that block voting for her hard. Also, she was the earliest to sing from either semifinal show to advance on votes. She sang 5th on girls night, while the other girls voted in were 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th. The guys were more spread out with James at 6th, Scott at 8th, and Paul, Jacob, and Casey closing the show. Having enough voters remember you and vote for you when you performed earlier in the night is usually a good sign.

  • tigervixxxen

    I always love seeing the odds. I don’t think Lauren or Pia will win. Lauren isn’t likable enough and I’m not convinced Pia isn’t a one great pimp spot performance wonder. I don’t see Casey finishing that high either, I think his shtick may wear thin by then. The audience is probably going to have to decide to support either Paul or Casey at some point. I’d say Scotty is a lock for final 4 at this point unless they make him look ridiculous doing a lot of uncomfortable themes. He has what the children haven’t had in the last few years, a defined genre and sound, a strong distinctive voice plus the adorableness and personality. I’d say Stefano may be able to do better than they have him placed here, he seems likable and can deliver some strong performances even if he is overall uneven. Niama will probably hang around way longer than she should, top 10 is a lock for her. I’d say James does a touch better than listed here and the final girl standing will be Thia. If I had to place my money on someone it would be Scotty and then Paul. First bootee is probably Ashton or Haley.

  • RightNow

    Personality goes a long way in this contest, even though it is a singing competition. Personality abounds here. I want to believe Pia will take it home. Quiet, unassuming and self assured. Her previous experience found on the internet shows she can do everything and she does it well. Even though most of the voters are female, in the end, voting for a female is not out of the question, if it is a good voice.

    And she’s smart. I also don’t think Pia will annoy viewers, the way, Lauren may. It’s funny, the “personality” issue was often said about Carrie Underwood.

  • MaryS-NJ

    If I recall correctly, the betting sites had Chris Daughtry as the projected winner in season 5 and Taylor was 4th. Just sayin’.

    If “official” buzz is what the betting sites are relying upon, then I’m going to put my money on Paul because I think Lauren Alaina could be the Daughtry of this season, and demographically, the voters favor men.

    And she’s smart. I also don’t think Pia will annoy viewers, the way, Lauren may. It’s funny, the “personality” issue was often said about Carrie Underwood.

    This. LA’s phony chumminess with Ryan and the judges already rubs me the wrong way. Also, the (presumed) underdog often prevails on Idol over the officially-pimped front runner.

    ETA…

    It’s probably not worth paying a lot of attention to early odds. I found some from about this time last year (AI9 still had 16 in the running then). But it’s interesting to see where each person actually finished. Considering only the Top 12, where the odds would have put their expected finish is in parentheses.

    #3 Casey James +400 (#1 or #2)
    #2 Crystal Bowersox +400 (#1 or #2)
    #1 Lee Dewyze +500 (#3 or #4)

    Actually, I’m kind of impressed with this. The top three were the top 3, and Casey and Lee switched places in the final results and were only one place out of where they were projected.

    I predict Pia to be the top finishing female and Paul and Scotty the top finishing males. Scotty has a lot of fans and is good at what he does, but he’s a country “specialist”. Not everyone who votes is into country music. I think Paul has more of an “alt” country/indie flavor that works for different demos. Casey could make it too, but “America don’t like jazz”.

  • MayMirabella

    I still have a copy of a TV Guide Article from Season 8. The Front Runners to win after the top 13 were chosen were Lil Rounds, Alexis, Danny Gokey and Adam Lambert. Kris was way down on the list.

    And the article even said they were saying Lil or Alexis would probably win or Danny. LOL!

  • MayMirabella

    Yes I remember a lot of articles and betting sites saying Daughtry would win. I will say his exit was one of the most shocking on Idol as he finished 4th. To me, it was one of the more shocking along with Constantine being booted earlier than some expected….I remember thinking Chris Daughtry and Constantine had bigger fan bases who would vote a lot more.

  • Studio57

    Technically Paul is a WGWG but I think he has so much more going than the other ones in terms of the tone of his voice. It’s instantly recognizable. Unique is the one word that keeps coming out of the judges mouth and the same can be said for Casey. He is definitely going to be top 5, if not win the whole thing.

    I think the problem with Daughtry and Constantine was fan complacency, plain and simple- their fans just thought they would be safe. It happens.

  • primeminister

    Who the heck is going to switch to Scott? Very, very, very low percentage, if any.

    Scott is so dramatically different that you are either in his corner from the get-go or he is not your cup of tea. I happen to loathe him, but for anyone who is backing Pia, Lauren, Paul, Jacob, Casey, Stefano – if they get cut, would you seriously switch your vote to Scott?

    I’m currently rooting for Paul, but Scotty is definitely my second favorite. Don’t know if I’ll vote for Scotty, but if it comes down to him and Lauren Alaina, you can be I’ll vote. Heh.

  • jammasta

    Well, at this point most of them have been “one trick ponies” as they have stayed to what they think are their strengths to get through. I mean Paul singing Rod Stewart? Exact imitation. Jacob and over-singing glory notes? James and his yell? Casey and his almost non-singing being overlooked because he is the class clown and a very very talented musician?

    THANK YOU! Geez.

    I think it’s a bit too early to tell, but I don’t see a girl winning. Lauren and Pia do have the best shots at it, but I think there’s a lot more pressure on them to stand out than there is for the guys, which makes it kinda difficult to see them winning. If a girl DOES win, I’m kinda hoping it’s Naima (but I also love Thia, but I don’t think she can do it). Haley, Karen, and Ashthon should be the first 3 out, even if I kinda do like Ashthon. I do not have much of a problem with Lauren or Pia winning (Although I might be inclined to think “a guy won a girls year and then a girl won a guys
    year, something’s not right”). I can see Haley getting the KLC/Sanjaya/Tim vote, for whatever reason o_O. Karen just SCREAMS 11th at me. Seriously, something about her makes her PERFECT for 11th.

    As for the guys, I don’t see Jacob getting very far unless there’s a save this season. I think I kinda underestimated the non-crazy Idol fan votes, and most of the casual Idol fans I’ve talked to root for either Casey or Paul, so I think both have a genuine shot at it. James and Scott have less chance. Stefano could be the dark horse, but I only see him going Top 6 at best.

    This is kinda how I’m seeing it (giving them a range)

    Casey – 1st-4th
    Paul – 1st-5th
    Pia – 2nd-4th
    Lauren – 3rd-6th
    Scott – 1st-5th
    James – 3rd-6th
    Jacob – 5th-8th
    Thia – 6th-8th
    Stefano – 6th-8th
    Naima – 7th-10th
    Ashthon – 10th, 12th-13th
    Karen – 11th
    Haley – 7th-10th, 12th-13th(only because of that KLC/Sanjaya/Tim factor I see in her)

    I seriously have NO idea why I think Karen screams 11th. She just does.

  • Suzanne

    win-Only once has the pick at the finals (Top 12 or 13) won it: Fantasia. The rest are just talented people who peaked a pinch too early.

    2010 Odds picked Crystal

    2009 odds picked Danny Gokey

    2008 odds picked David Archuleta (Cook was second tho)

    2007 odds picked Melinda Doolittle

    2006 odds picked Ace Young

    2005 odds picked Anwar Robinson

    2004 odds picked Fantasia

    2003 odds picked Clay Aiken (I can’t find a source, but I know it’s true. The support for him was freakishly overwhelming at top 12.)

    2002 I can’t find anything on the net for that but I remember reading that Tamyra Gray was the frontrunner.

  • Suzanne

    Top pick at the beginning of the Finals (Top 12 or 13)

    Season 9 Crystal Bowersox
    Season 8 Danny Gokey
    Season 7 David Archuleta
    Season 6 Melinda Doolittle
    Season 5 Ace Young
    Season 4 Anwar Robinson
    Season 3 Fantasia
    Season 2 Clay Aiken
    Season 1 Tamyra Gray

    I’ve been trying to post links to sources on the net but wordpress ain’t taking it.

    So, Lauren Alaina would be beating the odds to win it now that she’s been picked as winner.

    I love this odds stuff. Maybe I’ll join mj’s competition.

  • steph6449

    I still have a copy of a TV Guide Article from Season 8. The Front Runners to win after the top 13 were chosen were Lil Rounds, Alexis, Danny Gokey and Adam Lambert. Kris was way down on the list.

    Lol, not too bad though. They got two of the top three right. Pretty far off on Alexis, but with some better choices maybe she would have done much better than she did.

    Too soon for me to have any real opinion on AI10. Would like to see at least a couple more full performances including one where they have to choose songs from the theme-constrained song lists to take them outside their comfort zone.

    If the themes are decade-based, with a few odd ones thrown in to mix it up if they do another iTunes week or something like that, I wonder how far back the producers will go in time and if they will choose to have consecutive decades or jump around.

  • Kirsten

    Great analysis jammasta!

    I think this year is really wide open and we’ll have to see how people perform. I think the key is not to stumble in the first few weeks because their isn’t enough fodder to cover for you. This is especially true for those still splitting votes.

  • jammasta

    Thanks Kirsten :).

    By the way, has there been any mention of a Judges’ Save this season? If there is, I can see it going to anyone in the first 7 spots on my list (Casey through Jacob). I can only see it being used on Jacob, since I think the first 6 would never be in danger of elimination. I factored that in for Jacob. Without the save, I’d PROBABLY say he’d be 6th-9th.

    Then again, I remember rankings for Season 7 (the first I was invested in) saying Kristy Lee Cook would be 10th, Syesha 9th, Ramiele 5th, and so on, and I remember thinking the list was very spot-on. IIRC it only got the final 2 right. Something like that could happen this season. Some crazy inexplicable crap like Haley 5th, Pia 9th, Karen not 11th, Scott 13th, Ashthon 3rd with a Casey-Paul finale.

    Ashthon, Karen, and Haley are probably the fodder contestants. I think one of them will make tour, though.

  • gangreen29

    If the themes are decade-based, with a few odd ones thrown in to mix it up if they do another iTunes week or something like that, I wonder how far back the producers will go in time and if they will choose to have consecutive decades or jump around.

    So there are 10 weeks of themes (top 3 and finale don’t usually have themes). The first theme is song from your musical idol. Joesplace has already confirmed they are doing Year You Were Born. I can seen an itunes theme too. Probably 90s, 80s, 70s. Maybe a movie soundtrack theme? I could see something like Love Songs, it would be interesting to see what they all consider a love song lol. I think a gender bending week where the girls had to pick a male artist’s song and the guys had to pick a female artists song could be interesting.

  • steph6449

    So there are 10 weeks of themes (top 3 and finale don’t usually have themes). The first theme is song from your musical idol. Joesplace has already confirmed they are doing Year You Were Born. I can seen an itunes theme too. Probably 90s, 80s, 70s. Maybe a movie soundtrack theme?

    So there’s hope for disco trainwrecks after all :lol:

  • Jae

    I will just be happy if Haley doesn’t make top 10. So far she is the only one I do not really want to hear on tour.

    But seriously, I think anything can happen this year. No clear stand out and in a good way.

  • jumpstart

    Casey and his almost non-singing being overlooked because he is the class clown and a very very talented musician?

    ITA. I don’t get the Casey love. Paul also has me somewhat perplexed.

  • sr4mjc

    Constantine tweeted that April 7th will be Rock and Roll Hall of Fame week, he’ll be singing.

  • fanaround

    At the moment, Paul interviews and tweets about his band a lot. I have the impression his strategy is to make it far enough to get them signed, but not to win where they would most likely get broken up. But of course he would have no real control over the band if they sign him at all. And who knows what will happen to his outlook if he starts to go deep.

  • steph6449

    Constantine tweeted that April 7th will be Rock and Roll Hall of Fame week, he’ll be singing.

    Huh? I thought they were not doing genre weeks. Hmm.

    I don’t get the Casey love. Paul also has me somewhat perplexed.

    Yeah, although I don’t have any big favorites yet, there are some I’m not so keen on. Casey just seems a bit odd, his singing isn’t memorable to me at all, and IMO he’s not so attractive to look at. (yeah, I’m kind of shallow when watching tv, lol) And Paul is a little odd also, and gives me a slight cocky verging on smarmy vibe. Lauren A gives me an off vibe also.
    Not so much in each case though, that I couldn’t overcome it depending on what they do from here on in. It’s so early in the show, and most of the performance clips have been so short / chopped up, that I can’t fully judge.

  • BootStar

    I’ll be happy with either Lauren or Scotty winning as of right now. I’m just so tired of the WGWG trend. It needs to end.

    Scott is a white guy. And we’ve seen him play his guitar. In all likelihood, we’ll see him play it again. If he wins, I guarantee you he’ll be lumped in with the three previous winners by those who wanted somebody else to win.

    Scott is so dramatically different that you are either in his corner from the get-go or he is not your cup of tea. I happen to loathe him, but for anyone who is backing Pia, Lauren, Paul, Jacob, Casey, Stefano – if they get cut, would you seriously switch your vote to Scott?

    I’m not so sure about that. I like Scotty a lot. I also really like Pia, Naima, Karen, Paul, and Casey. And Stefano wowed me last week with his SFYL performance, so he’s a dark horse for me. I don’t know that you can categorize where votes will go once a favorite is voted off, assuming they go anywhere.

  • gangreen29

    Huh? I thought they were not doing genre weeks. Hmm.

    As strange as it sounds I would still not consider that a genre week. The type of artists in the Rock & Roll hall of fame are so broad. There are pop artists, R&B artists, country artists, jazz artists.

  • sr4mjc

    As strange as it sounds I would still not consider that a genre week. The type of artists in the Rock & Roll hall of fame are so broad. There are pop artists, R&B artists, country artists, jazz artists.

    I agree. And the bigger question is, who else is singing with Constantine? I can’t see him getting a solo. Medley?

  • webster

    Scott is a white guy. And we’ve seen him play his guitar. In all likelihood, we’ll see him play it again. If he wins, I guarantee you he’ll be lumped in with the three previous winners by those who wanted somebody else to win.

    If he plays during voting rounds, he should be lumped in with the WGWG, because he’s the epitome of what that acronym is about, IMO. His playing was at the level of what you’d expect after about a week with the instrument (less, if you have some talent). I like Scotty as a singer, but him strumming those 3 chords was not about improving the performance musically, it was about cashing in on whatever aura is attached to that image. Maybe he actually can play way better, but the fact that he used a capo to do that little bit suggests not.

  • steph6449

    So far, Scotty has struck me as a Josh Turner clone with a pretty much derivative style. But he’s still a young-ish acting teen, so I cut him a break on being too original at this age, and also factoring in the early stage in the competition. And I’d probably cut him another break for not being a guitar whiz at this point in his development.

    Whether he’s using the guitar as a prop for image, could be. He wouldn’t be the first. He might also be using it as a security blanket, it’s got to be nervewracking to be on national tv at that age with so much at stake trying to do well. Being able to hide a little behind a guitar probably helps.

    If he wants to be a country artist, he doesn’t actually have to play guitar if he doesn’t have a talent for it. They don’t all play guitar even though it seems like it. Went to two shows last summer that had Tim McGraw. He only pulled a guitar out once, in the longer of the two shows. He played a little acoustic guitar together with a couple of the guitarists in his band.

    You pretty much couldn’t tell listening to it which one was Tim on guitar, which may have been intentional on their part :lol: Then he basically said his guitar playing sucked, and he put the guitar away for good. Lol. He didn’t give up the hat though ;)

  • Fe

    Lauren A is so talented and so good but she is already on my last nerve. It’s the lack of humility from what we have seen so far which turns me off. I DID like her answer to Ryan when she said she was ‘just Lauren’ (when being compared to Pickler/Underwood/Clarkson)…in that instance she came across as genuine. She has loads of personality and stage presence, which is terrific….with a little humility, she could win. Having said that, I really like Pia, she’s my pick to win. I love everything about her and she is the only one to give me chills. Any singer who gives me chills has my attention! I hope Naima goes far, she deserves it, she is special. I don’t care so much for Ashthon, I’ve had my fill of these diva-types singing the same diva songs. Thia could be the dark horse here…I can see her sneaking up and winning in the same way Kris Allen did (when it looked like Adam Lambert would win). I love Haley and Karen (Karen was actually my original favorite) but I don’t see them getting far…at least one of them will likely not make top 10 (probably Haley).

    As for the guys, I like Paul, Scotty, and Stefano (he’s my favorite of the guys). James is terrific but he’s not my cup of tea–I can only take so much screeching and he is no Adam Lambert. Jacob needs to learn to stop over singing everything…he’ll go far, but I don’t see him winning. If Jacob learns some much needed control and sing some songs that connect with me I would go nuts over him. Casey is teddy bear cute and very talented but I can’t see myself buying any of his music…at least not at this point! Of course that could change!

  • Studio57

    Scott is a white guy. And we’ve seen him play his guitar. In all likelihood, we’ll see him play it again. If he wins, I guarantee you he’ll be lumped in with the three previous winners by those who wanted somebody else to win.

    Totally disagree- people came up with the WGWG thing to describe Cook, Allen, and DeWyze and their singer/songwriter-HAC-soft rock vibe. We haven’t seen a guy country singer since Bucky and Josh.

  • BrianC82

    Don’t write off Pia’s odds of winning. What you saw on Wednesday was no fluke. She is a ridiculously consistent and talented singer. Maybe she’s a little on the boring side, but that could be said of many Idol winners. Time and again, Idol voters have shown that they favor the safe/boring over the quirky/unique.

  • Eriko

    Casey and his almost non-singing being overlooked because he is the class clown and a very very talented musician?

    Casey IMO, has a great musical voice, better than Lee, Casey James and Kris for sure. Didn´t surprise me that Kelly Ann the vocal coach who for example coached Jordin Sparks and also David Cook I think, after their win, gave him a great review on his last performance.

  • Miss Blue

    Scott is so dramatically different that you are either in his corner from the get-go or he is not your cup of tea. I happen to loathe him, but for anyone who is backing Pia, Lauren, Paul, Jacob, Casey, Stefano – if they get cut, would you seriously switch your vote to Scott?

    I’m not so sure about that. I like Scotty a lot.

    To clarify: If you already like Scott, you are not one of the voters I am talking about. I am speaking of the fans of someone else, who also does not like Scott.

    Obviously, many/most of us like more than one contestant. I want Casey to win, but I like Paul, I like Pia, I like James, I like Karen. Couple others I’m meh about but don’t actively dislike. Scott I actively dislike. Hate his voice, hate his manner, don’t like his genre. Hence, I would never switch my vote to him if my chosen contestant was voted off. Say, if Casey gets offed. I will switch to James, Paul, etc. And so on and so forth. But Scott will never be on my switch list. In fact, I will actively vote against him.

  • MrDuffin

    In fact, I will actively vote against him.

    How do you vote against somebody? That bit of info would have come in handy the for me last three years.

  • MayMirabella

    2006 odds picked Ace Young

    2005 odds picked Anwar Robinson

    Wow, that is interesting, I did not know that.

  • Tony

    It’s gonna come down to who she faces in the top 3. If her main competition gets eliminated in the top 3, then she’s going to clobber her competition in the end. But if she meets someone like Casey or James, then it’s likely that she could get upset.

    The finals are the only time when you can vote AGAINST someone (like what happened, IMO, with Adam Lambert, Lee DeWyze and David Archuleta)

    Season 9 Crystal Bowersox
    Season 8 Danny Gokey
    Season 7 David Archuleta
    Season 6 Melinda Doolittle
    Season 5 Ace Young
    Season 4 Anwar Robinson
    Season 3 Fantasia
    Season 2 Clay Aiken
    Season 1 Tamyra Gray

    The odds for Ace HAD to have been released before they sang in the semi-finals. There was no way he was the favorite after they sang their first song during the top 24.

  • tomr

    Any word on whether they will be allowed to play instruments? Odds would change dramatically if they can do so. Especially Casey, Paul, Stephano, and to some degree Scott. I’m not sure any of the girls play.

  • primeminister

    Any word on whether they will be allowed to play instruments? Odds would change dramatically if they can do so. Especially Casey, Paul, Stephano, and to some degree Scott. I’m not sure any of the girls play.

    If TPTB want a girl to win, the strategic thing to do would be to not allow instruments. Those four guys would definitely have an advantage.

    On the other hand, allowing instruments to enhance performances makes the competition more interesting IMO.

  • Buffynut

    I think the oddsmakers did a pretty good job. I definitely agree with their first 3 eliminations. I would have the same top 4 but I would change the order to:
    1. Scott – winner
    2. Paul
    3. Lauren
    4. Casey

    No way will there be a final with 2 girls!

  • Buffynut

    On the other hand, allowing instruments to enhance performances makes the competition more interesting IMO.

    That was what made the competition so boring last season, for me. Playing guitars, rooted at the mic stand.:(

  • primeminister

    That was what made the competition so boring last season, for me. Playing guitars, rooted at the mic stand.:(

    Yeah, that’s why I said that the instruments have to enhance the performances, and not be a clutch or an excuse to put less effort into the performance/stage presence aspect.

    I found last season really boring too. On the other hand, the contestants’ use of instruments in Season 7 was more balanced.

  • everything

    Lauren and Pia do have the best shots at it, but I think there’s a lot more pressure on them to stand out than there is for the guys, which makes it kinda difficult to see them winning.

    I actually see it as an advantage. The competition among the girls aren’t as fierece which will actually be easier for Lauren and Pia to stand out. Naima, Hailey, Ashton are pretty much filler positions. Thia is still a wild card, so to speak.

    Whereas I see the competition among the guys more firece as they jockey for and split votes.

  • Valentin432

    Whereas I see the competition among the guys more firece as they jockey for and split votes.

    Doesn’t matter if the pool of voters voting for guys is bigger than the overall number of people voting for girls (see season 8 or 9)

  • Buffynut

    primeminister:
    03/05/2011 at 9:52 pm
    Yeah, that’s why I said that the instruments have to enhance the performances, and not be a clutch or an excuse to put less effort into the performance/stage presence aspect.

    I found last season really boring too. On the other hand, the contestants’ use of instruments in Season 7 was more balanced.

    Wow, you are so right! The season 7 instruments did enhance the performance, Brooke, Jason! Season 8 too! Kris, Matt, Scott…. I don’t think I’ve actually thought about this before!

  • Miss Blue

    How do you vote against somebody? That bit of info would have come in handy the for me last three years.

    Finals.

  • revcat

    Nah, don’t think Lauren A will win. But I have no idea who will, the guys are a very eclectic group so no tellin’. And there other talented girls to choose from. Lauren is just okay for me mainly, I guess, because I really don’t want a country singer to win. For this reason I’m not rooting for Scotty either, not my style. It doesn’t matter, he will probably have a country career no matter what.

    I saw Constantine a couple of weeks ago in Rock of Ages. He was very good. I think he should have a TV sit com; he has great comedic timing in addition to his singing and dancing skills. There was no hint of that cocky attitude that some Idol watchers loathed him for (which by the way I never got, I always liked him) but he could play cocky if required because he can act. I nominate him to take Charlie Sheen’s place LOL :)

  • ross

    Whether he’s using the guitar as a prop for image, could be. He wouldn’t be the first.He might also be using it as a security blanket, it’s got to be nervewracking to be on national tv at that age with so much at stake trying to do well. Being able to hide a little behind a guitar probably helps.

    I must say I really have a problem with ascribing all these hidden motives to people who play instruments. Using it as a prop, a security blanket, hiding behind it, etc. Musical instruments are played by singers to accompany themselves musically. Even if they are playing three chords.

  • iluvai

    I think Lauren could be the “Idol”, but she won’t. Once that card is called, it’s everything voters will do to make it not happen. It’s gonna be someone creepy like Paul. “Shivers”

  • claudette

    I’m going with Karen as the winner. I think the real fanatics and cougars will choose the winner. I think the general public has their preferences but don’t see contestants they don’t know personally and think I “loathe” this person. (those type of words are used to people who actually harm someone close to them and not an emotion hopefully often fel). It’s also those that “love” in an obsessed manner. These people vote in extreme force and numbers for either this love or hate.

    Therefore, I think Karen will slip through with her talented voice and sweet smile/demeanor and be the one left at the end. We’ll know little about her so she can’t offend middle america and no one will have picked apart her every comment and look because no one was really paying too close attention.

  • primeminister

    Of the remaining contestants, who plays what instrument?

    Casey – Bass, and I’m guessing many others?
    Paul – Guitar and Piano
    Stefano – Piano
    Scotty – Guitar

  • jammasta

    Scott I actively dislike. Hate his voice, hate his manner, don’t like his genre. Hence, I would never switch my vote to him if my chosen contestant was voted off. Say, if Casey gets offed. I will switch to James, Paul, etc. And so on and so forth. But Scott will never be on my switch list. In fact, I will actively vote against him.

    Did he… like…. kill you and you had to be resurrected by bioengineering? ZOMBIES D:. That would be kinda AWESOME!

    At any rate, voting against someone is something I haven’t heard of.

    Points for Scott:
    -He’s awesome (okay, that’s just IMO)
    -He’s pretty different from the other Idol contestants.
    -He knows where he wants to go as an artist, he’s very grounded in his love of country music.
    -He plays guitar. Some people love that.
    -He seems likable.
    -Country music is very popular with some of the major voting areas.

    Points against Scott:
    -May be perceived as a clone of Josh Turner
    -He plays guitar. Some people hate that, especially given the last trend of winners.
    -A male teen country artist may be difficult to market.
    -Country music isn’t exactly the most liked genre elsewhere.
    -If he sings “Your Man” again, I’m pretty sure someone is gonna want to kick him in the crotch (For the record, it isn’t me, I’ll probably just be like “DAMMIT SCOTT”). Which may do something to his voice o_O. So much for “nuts of wonder” I guess.

    Most of these pros and cons kinda run together. Eh, I don’t think I really made any kind of point here. I guess I tried to say I can’t tell how far he’ll go? >_>. I’m still thinking 1st-5th still, but even then, the John Stevens talk has me a little less hopeful.

    Personally, I’m rooting for either James, Scott, or Casey. I wouldn’t be TOO mad with a Paul, Pia, or Lauren win, but I think I’d find it a tad boring.

    I dunno if I’ll vote. Not much time. If I did vote, I’d certainly vote for either of the first three (depending either on who’s best or who’s in most trouble despite a good performance), but I have 3 backups in case for whatever reason my 3 choices tank.

    At this point, all I really want is Haley and Karen out (more Haley, Karen’s kinda okay). Ashthon maybe, but I do kinda like her. As long as we have that, we’ve got a good Top 10. I just hope Sacramento’s recent changes and possible future changes don’t screw up the chance of a tour stop here.

    I’m going with Karen as the winner. I think the real fanatics and cougars will choose the winner. I think the general public has their preferences but don’t see contestants they don’t know personally and think I “loathe” this person. (those type of words are used to people who actually harm someone close to them and not an emotion hopefully often fel). It’s also those that “love” in an obsessed manner. These people vote in extreme force and numbers for either this love or hate.

    Therefore, I think Karen will slip through with her talented voice and sweet smile/demeanor and be the one left at the end. We’ll know little about her so she can’t offend middle america and no one will have picked apart her every comment and look because no one was really paying too close attention.

    o_O. I see what you’re doing, but…. o_O.

    Of the remaining contestants, who plays what instrument?

    Casey – Bass, and I’m guessing many others?
    Paul – Guitar and Piano
    Stefano – Piano
    Scotty – Guitar

    I like it so far, the instruments are a minority and neither of these 4 contestants really run together (like last year in a sense). I think that’s it, but not sure. Time to dig up their pre-Idol videos!

  • gangreen29

    Of the remaining contestants, who plays what instrument?

    Casey – Bass, and I’m guessing many others?
    Paul – Guitar and Piano
    Stefano – Piano
    Scotty – Guitar

    Karen plays guitar, Ashthon plays piano, and Thia plays both.

  • Fullmoon

    I have to say this is the best American Idol since season 5. I didn’t watch it from the beginning but I had all the episodes on my DVR and spent this past weekend watching all of them, so everything is still fresh in my mind. I watch this week in real time with everyone else. After S5 I tuned out and came back for S8 ONLY because of Adam and now I am back for all the contestants because I think this is the most talented group we have had in 5yrs. Other than Haley not a bad apple in the bunch. Good job Nigel. I am so excited . Yes, good times are back.
    I can’t even begin to pick a winner right now because they are all so damn good, but I am rooting for a girl to win. AI needs that this year. No matter how it ends this group will all go on to bigger and better things. I do have to say after reading some comments I’m starting to feel like what’s the point in getting excited when it seems like before the “real” competition has even begun there are already lines drawn on who we hate and who we love based on very little that we have actually seen. We haven’t even begun to see the potential in these performers. A lot happens in 13 weeks. Go Pia!!!

  • gabriel oak

    I think Karen could easily be eliminated during a theme week like the rock and roll week. I think Thia could stick around for a while. I am never going to vote for Lauren. I really haven’t liked her from day one. Pia, Casey, Paul and Scotty will also stick around. I like Naima but she’s going to have to choose some fantastic songs to stay long.

  • webster

    I must say I really have a problem with ascribing all these hidden motives to people who play instruments. Using it as a prop, a security blanket, hiding behind it, etc. Musical instruments are played by singers to accompany themselves musically. Even if they are playing three chords.

    I can see that, if you’re talking about pre-idol, when they probably had limited resources. Some are decent instrumentalists, some had bands, but some learned a bate minimum or even sometimes performed to recorded tracks.

    But now they’ve got the services of a professional band. They should be making choices that enhance the performance. If they do that, I’m all for instruments. I loved what Casey did on bass, even though the band bassist could have done it. Same with Tim and Julie on piano. I don’t want instruments to go away or be restricted.

    But when the accompaniment is so very weak, like Scotty’s playing, or buried in the real band accompaniment, as has happened with some in past seasons, then i have to wonder how/why they ended up with such a lame accompaniment. Was it a musical choice, and they are showing musical cluelessness in thinking they actually sound as good as the pro, or in thinking their faint strumming is even heard in the band mix? Or was it chosen for some non- musical reason? I really do think it is sometimes the latter.

  • Grammie Kari

    Constantine tweeted that April 7th will be Rock and Roll Hall of Fame week, he’ll be singing.

    That will be so awesome! I loved him in “Rock of Ages”! I wonder if he will be singing something from a new album?

    As a Founding Member of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, this theme is fabulous! Yes, there are Country artists in the Rock Hall, but Scotty would be wise to go a different direction. Maybe Folk Rock?

  • monleo1705

    Now that they ousted Kendra, I’m gonna give all my votes to Pia…. ?

  • Grammie Kari

    There was no hint of that cocky attitude that some Idol watchers loathed him for (which by the way I never got, I always liked him) but he could play cocky if required because he can act. I nominate him to take Charlie Sheen’s place LOL

    Great idea! Constantine really does have the talent and this is a good way to acknowledge that he is the first Idol to receive a Tony nomination!

    I really do like Stefano! He has a bit of charm about him and a beautiful voice.

    The RRHOF&M covers the decades from the 1920′s through the 1980′s and yet honors current artists in a variety of ways. You can see costumes worn by current artists. I am waiting to see something from Lady Gaga! ;o)

  • Incipit

    Heh. Shades of Season7. These opening odds are more interesting as a curiosity – so many variables to be collected and factored in once there are actual performances – and the odds will lengthen and shorten as those are calculated.

    I don’t have any idea if one of these performers will interest me – once they begin, you know, performing. *wink* But I do find the bookmakers a great finger on the pulse as the contestants narrow down. When TPTB were setting up their ‘Battle of the Davids’ and a great percentage of Idol land was buying the ‘Archie as leader’ meme – most all of the Bookies had a different story – so did Dial Idol, from about Top7 onwards – but on the finale performance night, all I had to do was come and look at the odds across the board – and I knew DC had this. (But I still voted with two phones) *snerk* @Myself.

    I haven’t paid any attention to the betting sites since then – but I believe I will watch the odds unfolding this year- it’s a varied cast, as Season7 was – with several people jockeying for the front – and that will help make it interesting – because – these youngsters may need some help being interesting. IMO. Of Course.

  • sunchick

    At the moment, Paul interviews and tweets about his band a lot. I have the impression his strategy is to make it far enough to get them signed, but not to win where they would most likely get broken up

    OH, that’s interesting. Maybe he’s got a Jacob Hoggard thing going on. Paul’s vocal tone is interesting but probably polarizing (I find it grating and James Blunt-ish) so I don’t think he could win anyway.

    My early prediction….the most popular guys(Casey, Scotty, Paul, James, Jacob) are pretty diverse and quirky in their own ways, so they will each develop fanbases that don’t overlap a lot. Whichever one has the biggest core fanbase will probably last the longest. Most of the girls, OTOH, have that pretty girl with big voice traditional AI thing going for them. I think, then, that whichever PGWBV is the most consistent performance wise and proves to be the most likable throughout the competition, likely Lauren or Pia, maybe Thia, will pick up the swing votes from the PGWBVs who are voted off, thereby giving them enough votes to squeak past the guys and win the whole thing.

  • suenigma

    sunchick:
    My early prediction….the most popular guys(Casey, Scotty, Paul, James, Jacob) are pretty diverse and quirky in their own ways, so they will each develop fanbases that don’t overlap a lot. Whichever one has the biggest core fanbase will probably last the longest. The girls, OTOH, all have that pretty girl with big voice thing going for them. I think, then, that whichever PGWBV is the most consistent performance wise and proves to be the most likable throughout the competition, likely Lauren or Pia, maybe Thia, will pick up the swing votes from the PGWBVs who are voted off, thereby giving them enough votes to squeak past the guys and win the whole thing.

    Oooooooh Sunchick, excellent analysis and prediction. I am excited to see/hear how this season is going to play out. Haven’t felt this way since Season 7.

  • primeminister

    At the moment, Paul interviews and tweets about his band a lot. I have the impression his strategy is to make it far enough to get them signed, but not to win where they would most likely get broken up

    That thought also crossed my mind, but in a Top 13 interview, Paul has explicitly stated that he wants to win this. I heard those words straight from his mouth! (It was a video interview that wasn’t the LA Times blog one…I’m having trouble remembering exactly where I saw it).

    My early prediction….the most popular guys(Casey, Scotty, Paul, James, Jacob) are pretty diverse and quirky in their own ways, so they will each develop fanbases that don’t overlap a lot. Whichever one has the biggest core fanbase will probably last the longest. Most of the girls, OTOH, have that pretty girl with big voice traditional AI thing going for them. I think, then, that whichever PGWBV is the most consistent performance wise and proves to be the most likable throughout the competition, likely Lauren or Pia, maybe Thia, will pick up the swing votes from the PGWBVs who are voted off, thereby giving them enough votes to squeak past the guys and win the whole thing.

    That’s a real possibility, but I think Scotty’s base might be big enough to carry him all the way through.

  • Incipit

    Somewhere pages back I posted the very same theory – so I agree with Sunchick. I went a little farther – and posited that TPTB did this on purpose, to try again for their female winner. It’s essentially a form of the same thing they tried last year – but without picking really accessible talents across the board, it didn’t work. (also – the judges)

    Essentially – the base of voters has to be not only deep, but wide – and that happens from picking up new fans throughout the season, and fans of other idols as they leave. If one contestant has a big collection of committed fans to start with, but they don’t keep adding to them, they will begin to falter about the middle of the season. If the the opposing front runner and the other contestants are sharing a voting base for the most part – their voting block will continue to widen with swing votes as the finale approaches.

    The guys are chosen for their differences in vocals and genre – they will have more trouble transferring votes as the cast shrinks than the girls will – because they have styles and genres in common, or at least, that crossover. A girl can more easily build a coalition voting base. And of course, there are variables like the personality of the idol, song ‘choice’, performance order, lighting and sound ‘problems’ and judges comments that can tweak the results.

    We’ll see what happens, as the first set of front runners are emerging.

    I’m gonna watch the odds makers too, like I did 3 yrs ago. *snerk* The last person to give credence as to where an idol is in the standings is anything Ryan says on a Results night that isn’t yes or no read from a card. Plausible deniability in the order of declaring safety is an art form with him.

    JMO. Of Course.

  • garlandk77

    claudette said: I’m going with Karen as the winner….We’ll know little about her so she can’t offend middle america and no one will have picked apart her every comment and look because no one was really paying too close attention.

    I think some viewers may already have been offended by Karen’s comments making an issue of her ethnicity. On the shows, she has said: “Latinos are back in the game! We’re here! I’m representing!”

    I don’t think anyone is bothered by her singing in Spanish, but making a big “issue” of being Latino will not sit well with some people. Some people will see this as playing the “race card,” appearing as if she is asking “her people” to vote for her because she is Latino, with the implication that if you don’t vote for her then maybe you are anti-Latino or racist.

    I have always admired how African American contestants on Idol never make an “issue” out of being black. Unlike Karen, they never say they are on Idol “representing” their race. This kind of thing has become standard practice among politicians trying to cater to ethnic voters, but I don’t think Idol viewers want contestants “campaigning” for votes on the basis of their race or ethnicity.

    If Karen keeps up this “I’m a Latino, so vote for me” thing, she will turn off a lot of people.

  • Falfor

    Someone said earlier that the Paul thing has them perplexed. It does the same for me. I see this guy as a bit wirey or springy and his voice does nothing for me. He is very much an average joe that can carry a note. Feel free to convince me of what it is I am missing here. From the looks of things, he will be around awhile and I would like to ‘get it’ while I watch.

  • Kirsten

    I am never going to vote for Lauren. I really haven’t liked her from day one.

    I think that is ultimately what dooms Lauren. Many a front runner and most of the shock boots have been taken out by being deemed “unlikeable” by a major part of the audience. If there is one underlying theme of Idol fans, their myIdol is sweet and humble. Sure, those who are already fans are able to overlook a myriad of baby eating and puppy kicking from their myIdol (those babies and puppies totally deserved it!), but it proves a hindrance to other fans jumping on the bandwagon. Jennifer Hudson is a classic example of this. People today express shock at her early ouster, but that girl had an awesome stank face and gave off some really bad attitude on the show. As the show progressed, she had trouble gaining new fans despite some very good performances. That and the split vote on Barry Manilow night doomed her. Of course, now, everybody says she is sweet and humble. All Idols eventually end up sweet and humble (except for perhaps Constantine who wears his a$$hatery like a badge of honour…another “shock” boot).

    So, when reading the tea leaves for this season, I think we must not only factor in genres, vote splitting and vote pooling, we should also look at the likability factor. As Peter Noone correctly pointed out, to Simon’s absolute annoyance, this is a voting contest.

    And yes, Lauren’s fans don’t need to point it out, I know she is really “sweet and humble”…doesn’t change the fact that some people just don’t see it. So when she is ousted, where do her votes pool? Her BFF Thia or genre sharing Scotty?

  • Kirsten

    He is very much an average joe that can carry a note. Feel free to convince me of what it is I am missing here. From the looks of things, he will be around awhile and I would like to ‘get it’ while I watch.

    I think this is how it breaks down:

    1) He has a quirky voice (some people just go for something different).
    2) He represents the HAC pop/rock genre (a popular one for Idol fans)
    3) He reminds people of Bradly Cooper (somewhere, I’m sure there is an “after dark” thread)
    4) He is generally regarded as “sweet and humble”.

    His fans will also tell you that he is very talented and has that “je ne sais quoi” which makes him stand out (Simon would call it the “X-Factor”).

    He’s popular for whatever reason. For prognosticators, we have to figure out how popular and if it will attract new voters. I think his biggest problem at attracting new voters will be that those who seem him in the same vein as “Cook/Kris/Lee” will vote for somebody else “for a change”.

  • lili_anne7

    The weird thing about Paul for me personally is that I haven’t really liked him on AI, but I LOVE his original music. I bought some tracks from his bands album, and they are excellent. I’m just happy his band is getting this exposure, because these guys are talented. I hope he pulls a Jacob Hoggard and stays with his band, because as a solo artist he will just be another Kris or Lee.

  • lili_anne7

    Most of the girls, OTOH, have that pretty girl with big voice traditional AI thing going for them. I think, then, that whichever PGWBV is the most consistent performance wise and proves to be the most likable throughout the competition, likely Lauren or Pia, maybe Thia, will pick up the swing votes from the PGWBVs who are voted off, thereby giving them enough votes to squeak past the guys and win the whole thing.

    Interesting……I never thought about it in that way, I hope you are right. BTW, I’m not a big Lauuren fan, but she does not come across has unlikable to me at all. She seems to have a very sweet, bubbly personality, and I’m sure that’s what most of the casual voters also see in her.

  • tomr

    Interesting…my wife and I get a different vibe. She comes across as a 16 year old who is trying to act 21. This really turns us off! Thia is much more age appropriate so, although boring so far, we prefer her to Lauren.

  • MrDuffin

    I stick to who is the best musician and vote for them. I stop voting once it is down to personality and not talent. The only years I have voted in the finals is the last two years and of course my choice lost the battle but won the war.

  • Buffynut

    tomr:

    03/06/2011 at 8:40 am
    Interesting…my wife and I get a different vibe. She comes across as a 16 year old who is trying to act 21. This really turns us off! Thia is much more age appropriate so, although boring so far, we prefer her to Lauren.

    I sooo agree with this. I can’t see myself ever voting for Lauren. I’d even say she comes across as a 16 year old who is trying to act 30! I hope the stylists get after her. Because the last 2 things I’ve seen her in, the results night outfit and her Facebook outfit, she is dressing like she’s over 30! It’s better than the Barbie Doll Cowgirl, but still awful for her age.

  • koshka

    Interesting……I never thought about it in that way, I hope you are right. BTW, I’m not a big Lauuren fan, but she does not come across has unlikable to me at all. She seems to have a very sweet, bubbly personality, and I’m sure that’s what most of the casual voters also see in her.

    I have no doubt that is what the casual voters see. I’m with tomr with this one. She comes across as a 16 year old trying to act 21. While this isn’t atypical for teens, doing this on TV for the public is kind of disconcerting. I kind of wonder what her mom has to say about this. I don’t think I’d be comfortable if I was in her shoes.

  • jpfan

    I could see a Scotty/Lauren finale although Pia might make it. She’s quite boring but boring works well on Idol. Lauren is def abit unlikeable. No one yet has “had a moment” on the show, so that’ll really determine who makes it through. I’d say James is the wild card.

    Casey is also somewhat unlikeable so I don’t think he’ll make it as far as I once thought. Ditto Paul with his vocal issues. Of course in the end it’s all kind of meaningless. Winning Idol isn’t the big deal it used to be. Unless you connect with a popular genre, you’re kind of toast even if you win.

  • koshka

    Casey is also somewhat unlikeable so I don’t think he’ll make it as far as I once thought.

    Wow you really think Casey is unlikeable? I thought he was pretty personable in a quirky way. I don’t think he’ll go far because his vocals are mediocre at best and TPTB will be limiting the instruments, so that puts him in a tough spot. What is it that rubs you wrong?

    I think James is a wild card as long as he doesn’t talk too much and mixes up his song selection. He had a chance to sing A Change Is Gonna Come with some tenderness & creativity and chose not to, which a complete mystery to me as to why he did this. Sing for your life is a perfect time to show one’s strength. I’m not sure he’ll play the idol game well enough to take him to the end. I think he’ll drop off somewhere around 5th or 6th unless Jimmy gets his hands on him. :) I hope he goes for the long haul, because like Casey & Paul, he make good TV.

  • jpfan

    Being quirky can sometimes turn right into douchy. Casey looks older but he’s really just a teenager. I could see his lack of maturity really taking full effect.

  • Valentin432

    IA that being unlikeable is a deal breaker in these type of competitions, no doubt about that.

    That said the last place I would think Lauren would be popular as a teenager blonde country girl TCO would be here.

    If she’s going to win, I expect no love from the idolsphere but a steady support from middle america just like Carrie.

  • jpfan

    I actually watched those clips of the Top 13 talking about their favorite albums, etc.

    I thought the following came off much smarter than expected: Jacob, Lauren, Haley, Scotty (alot) and surprise James.

    The ones who seem to be painfully boring are: Karen, Thia, Pia,

    Totally clueless: Ashton

    I can’t remember anyone else.

  • koshka

    jpfan I’ll have to watch Casey closer. Of the 13, I don’t love or hate anyone except for Lauren A. She’ll probably be my Kat this year. I don’t like when women/girls use sexuality during the competition.

    jpfan… the Top 13 vids are you talking about the ones on AI.com? I got sick of watching the JLo razor commercial at the beginning of each one & eventually gave up. LOL

  • jpfan

    Someone posted some videos yesterday? I don’t remember any JLo commercial though. ;)

    I don’t want to curse Casey by saying he’s a douche. We really don’t know anything about these people. I’m just saying quirky doesn’t always work on Idol. Best bet is: 100% humble. Once you can fake that, you’re good to go. ;)

  • Falfor

    Why is so much being pre-taped, then edited and aired. Editing results in a desirable element for the producers. I want to see these contestants in their natural element.

  • http://contributor.yahoo.com/user/303318/jimmy_boyd.html jimmyboyd2

    I think some viewers may already have been offended by Karen’s comments making an issue of her ethnicity. On the shows, she has said: “Latinos are back in the game! We’re here! I’m representing!”

    I don’t think anyone is bothered by her singing in Spanish, but making a big “issue” of being Latino will not sit well with some people. Some people will see this as playing the “race card,” appearing as if she is asking “her people” to vote for her because she is Latino, with the implication that if you don’t vote for her then maybe you are anti-Latino or racist.

    I have always admired how African American contestants on Idol never make an “issue” out of being black. Unlike Karen, they never say they are on Idol “representing” their race. This kind of thing has become standard practice among politicians trying to cater to ethnic voters, but I don’t think Idol viewers want contestants “campaigning” for votes on the basis of their race or ethnicity.

    If Karen keeps up this “I’m a Latino, so vote for me” thing, she will turn off a lot of people.

    I wouldn’t say I was offended, but it bugs me and suggests a lack of individual personality. What? I’m supposed to think you’re cool because your a Latina? Duh. I can see that. Now, let me know who YOU are as an individual. Stop hiding behind an ethnicity.

  • webster

    Oooooooh Sunchick, excellent analysis and prediction

    ^^^
    Shorthand to reference sunchick’s detailed analysis upthread.

    The idea of how vote turnover works is interesting and, as far as vocal styles works, may pan out. But I wonder about two things:

    A) is the gender split for voters that strong? If we were in the middle of an S5 style semis, I could see that, but not in the finals. For example, if Jacob goes and one of the girls lays down a big gospel-y number the next week, that may pull his votes. Or Haley’s voters may go for some Growl ‘n Howl performance by James or even Casey (that’s not an insult, I like all three) or Lauren’s to Scotty, etc.

    B) lots of peeps like more than one genre. They may vote country one week and rock another. Or if their fav is one genre, they switch to the other when that person goes. Or they’re voting “best voice” regardless of genre.

  • Mary102

    Re Lauren being the favorite right now – I was just thinking back, and when, since Carrie’s season, has the favorite at this point in the game actually won? Very few, if any times imo.

    Season 5 = Pretty close race at Top 12, but Daughtry was probably considered the favorite

    Season 6 = Maybe Melinda was considered, certainly not Jordin

    Season 7 = Archuleta was the fav to win

    Season 8 = Adam and Danny were the front-runners to win

    Season 9 = Crystal was probably the front-runner to win

    So, in other words, my guess, if history proves correct, not to mention the OTT pimping of Lauren likely leading to a voter backlash by about top 5 or 6, she’ll end up around 3rd or 4th, but someone else, like Pia, Paul, or Casey will win instead.

  • Mary102

    jpfan:
    03/06/2011 at 9:41 am
    I could see a Scotty/Lauren finale although Pia might make it. She’s quite boring but boring works well on Idol.

    But how well will it work post-idol? I agree that’s probably my biggest problem right now with Pia. She is very good, and gorgeous, but her niche would likely be pop, and that is made up of big personalities with a lot of “IT” factor – if she can’t bring that, she would be completely lost post-AI in a world of flash and glitz amidst the Gaga, Britney, Rihanna, and Katy Perry’s of the world.

  • OldHag

    Lauren Alaina is my this year’s version of Danny Gokey – their personality grates me so much that I don’t care how they sing. Good, bad, or indifferent – I want them off my TV.

  • Zastine4974

    Fullmoon:
    03/06/2011 at 12:18 am
    I have to say this is the best American Idol since season 5. I didn’t watch it from the beginning but I had all the episodes on my DVR and spent this past weekend watching all of them, so everything is still fresh in my mind. I watch this week in real time with everyone else. After S5 I tuned out and came back for S8 ONLY because of Adam and now I am back for all the contestants because I think this is the most talented group we have had in 5yrs

    I take exception to the comment that this is the best season in 5 years. If someone “tuned out and came back for S8 ONLY because of Adam” how can someone know what the talent was in the other seasons or am I misunderstanding the comment? (If so I apologize in advance)

    S6 & S9 were snoozefests (IMO) but S7 had exceptional talent for all of the top 10. S8 had some exceptional talent but not the entire top 10 Just not understanding how this season can be judged as the best in the last 5 yrs when all seasons have not been viewed.

  • Fullmoon

    I take exception to the comment that this is the best season in 5 years. If someone “tuned out and came back for S8 ONLY because of Adam” how can someone know what the talent was in the other seasons or am I misunderstanding the comment? (If so I apologize in advance)

    S6 & S9 were snoozefests (IMO) but S7 had exceptional talent for all of the top 10. S8 had some exceptional talent but not the entire top 10 Just not understanding how this season can be judged as the best in the last 5 yrs when all seasons have not been viewed.

    Sorry, I wasn’t clear. When I said tuned out I didn’t mean I totally ignored the show. I did check out what was going on from time to time but no one or the show really caught my attention to stay with it. S7 didn’t really do anything for me but that just my opinion, others may disagree but I was only speaking for myself.

  • Willis

    I think James could go either way at this point. People might take to his personality, or they could get turned off by it. Sometimes I think your better off saying nothing but “thanks, I had fun” like DeWyze. There’s nothing to dislike about that.

    I think it’s too soon to count out Haley. Her voice would work in many genres (Pop/R&B/Country/Rock)and she has more potential sex appeal than the other ladies. I guess that could work against her too.

    Love Casey, but he should not win. Just can’t see a successful album out of him. I’d say the same about Thia too. Just not current.

    Lauren A will probably go the way of Katie Stevens and leave us half way. Lauren A has a better voice, but is even more annoying than Stevens was.

    I hope Pia makes it to the finals and can avoid the Kat-type-hate that will be coming her way.

    I could see the final two being her and Scotty, with Paul playing the Casey James at third.

  • ri

    Lauren A will probably go the way of Katie Stevens and leave us half way. Lauren A has a better voice, but is even more annoying than Stevens was.

    if Lauren makes it any farther than that, i’m not sure I will.

  • lovineyes

    Lauren A. will not win, no matter how well she sings. She’s far too confident and cocky and her fawning all over Steven got old after the 2nd episode she was on. If she wants to have a chance, she has to cut that out, but even then, I can’t see her winning. She’s no Carrie Underwood.