Monday Morning Mediabase Update – 12/15/08

Looks like it will be a wild time in the zone between #19 and #32 on the Top 40 chart. I don’t think that LO will move much, but there will be songs sliding all over the place from what I can tell.

Yeah, January looks like it will be interesting too, doesn’t it? It will be fun to see the shenanagins taking place once program managers comes back from the holidays. So much sliding up and down my head will be spinning. Are there a lot of new single releases scheduled for January? Besides Archie, that is. LOL. Will Magic Rainbow finally disappear of Top 40 and HAC? We know it will hang around AC forever, they don’t count. Ha.

I have a question about “recurrents”. Now, do songs have to be on a chart for a certain time before they are allowed to become a recurrent? And what the heck is that anyway? Does it happen because people start wanting to hear it more? For some reason, I haven’t absorbed the recurrent thing. Kirsten or someone, would you give me a bird’s eye view of recurrents or maybe point me to an article that explains it?

Thanks :smile1_tb:

As I understand it, recurrents are removed from the chart to keep it fresh, with the thought that stations are more likely to play songs on the chart, even if they’ll keep spinning recurrents to some extent.

A song has to be in the top 40 in a format for at least 20 weeks to go recurrent (I think that’s right in all formats). On Top 40, a recurrent-eligible song will typically be removed when it drops below #20. On HAC and (I think) AC, the cutoff is #15. There are also some situations where you have a slow-moving song on the chart that hasn’t gone above the magic number, and the chartmakers have some flexibility to remove those.

Magic Rainbow just missed going recurrent on Top 40, has gone recurrent on HAC, and is recurrent-eligible on AC. As I understand it, the AC chartmakers won’t remove recurrent-eligible songs during the Xmas season because so many of the stations go all-Christmas, all the time. (Right now, over 2/3 of the AC stations on mediabase are all-Christmas.)

Kirsten, do you know if they freeze the charts at some point? I got the sense that they do, but I haven’t seen confirmation of that anywhere. If they do, do you know when they will. Thanks!

Are there a lot of new single releases scheduled for January?

Currently listed for Pop, Rhythmic, Hot/Mod/AC/Country/Alternative/Rock:

Jan 5:
Lily Allen: The Fear: Hot/Mod/AC
Shane O’dazier: I Hate This Town: Country

Jan 6:
David Archuleta: A Little Too Not Over You: Pop
Leona Lewis: I Will Be: Pop
Burn Halo: Dirty Little Girl: Rock

Jan 12:
George Ducas: Walk Through This Valley: Country
John Rich: Another You: Country
Tim McGraw: Nothin’ To Die For: Country
Metallica: Cyanide: Alternative

Jan 13:
Katy Perry: Thinking of You: Pop
J. Holiday: It’s Yours: Rhythmic
Blue Octover: Dirt Room: Alternative
Fall Out Boy: America’s Sweetheart: Alternative
The Von Bondies: Pale Bride: Alternative
Hinder: Up All Night: Rock
Red: Death of Me: Rock

Jan 19:
Steve Holy : Might Have Been: Country

Jan 20:
Melinda Doolittle: It’s Your Love: Pop
Baby Bash: That’s How I Go : Rhythmic
Shontelle: Battle Cry : Rhythmic
Kings of Leon: Use Somebody: Alternative
Theory of a Deadman: Hate My Life: Alternative

Jan 26:
Kaiser Chiefs: Good Days Bad Days: Hot/Mod/AC
Lily Allen: The Fear: Hot/Mod/AC (Don’t ask me why it’s listed twice)
Whitney Duncan: The Bed You Made: Country

Jan 27:
Saving Abel: 18 Days: Pop
Busta Rhymes: World Go Round: Rhythmic
Pat Green: What I’m For: Country
Kaiser Chiefs: Good Days Bad Days: Alternative
People in Planes: Last Man Standing: Alternative
12 Stones: Broken Road

Kirsten, do you know if they freeze the charts at some point?

No, I don’t know. I imagine they do something like that because the program manager wants to take a vacation too.

Thanks Kirsten. Great info ^^. Should be interesting to see how Leona and Archie do head-to-head with their singles. Both Crush and Better In Time seem to play on a lot of the same stations, so this should be very cool to watch.

I’ll look forward to seeing the release schedule update. Isn’t Kelly’s album dropping in early 2009? Cannot wait.

When DA’s ALTNOY is released for adds at radio stations as a single on January whatever, will it be released to itunes in some way also? I ask that because you can already buy it there, but wondered since it’s a “release” will they put an ad out front at itunes or something? Is it considered a new itune release also? How does that work? (Boy, I hope that made sense, lol)

The only time that you see a release on itunes of a single from an already-released record is if they do a radio edit. So, I don’t think so, JudyOhio.

ETA: I would think that they could always do an ad. My bet is that, if there is an ad connected to the new single, it will actually be in connection with the video when it comes out. But that’s just a guess on my part.

I read this morning on AllAccess that this is the last chart of the year – they’ll be back to work 1/5/09. Sorry, no, link, I’m at a computer that doesn’t allow me to do it.

HDD takes a long break also for about 2 weeks, which will probably make us a little (or a lot) antsy about the albums sales, lol.

Where is the information on David Cook’s new released singles? Is he working on any new videos, as well? David Cook’s new CD has many songs that should be released as singles: Barbasol, Permanent, Declaration, Life on the Moon, Avalanche, etc. I hope to start hearing these on the radio soon. Any chance of that??

…especially since Permanent has seemed to catch on pretty well, it was already used in Canada’s version of SYTYCD show (beautifully, I might add).

There is no info yet on a new single for DC, and I’m not betting that we hear anything before the New Year.

A new single probably hasn’t been chosen yet Squirrelly (or the label just hasn’t released the info yet if it has been chosen already), but when it happens it will show up on a site like All Access. I would guess that we’ll probably hear something about a new single in January.

ETA: I would think that they could always do an ad. My bet is that, if there is an ad connected to the new single, it will actually be in connection with the video when it comes out. But thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s just a guess on my part.

I agree Folkfan-I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s an ad for the ALTNOY video once it’s released on itunes.

I don’t think we’ll hear anything about a new single for DC until LO really stalls and starts losing spins. However, just because we don’t have an add date for a new single doesn’t mean that the label doesn’t have something in the works. I’m eager to find out what single #2 will be and to see if it gets decent promotion (I think that the sales of the album are strong enough to guarantee that he doesn’t get the Blake or Kat treatment on the second single).

Cheese, I wonder if we see them start testing singles for Cook in January? I don’t know if RCA does that kind of thing though. My money is still on Declaration… that’s the one he does with LO when he can only do 2 songs, and in fact that’s the one besides LO he always at shows.

I can’t wait to see what happens with ALTNOY too. I really like that song, its cute. I want to see how fast it moves. Archie should be in good with Top 40, and I can’t imagine there will be much resistance to it. Stranger things have happened though.

January/Feb will be fun. AND a new season of Idol? Too much to chew on.

HDD Album Sales Chart…

CHART DATE: 12/15/2008
LAST UPDATE: 12/15/2008 09:50:00
NOW IN: 22.24%

LW TW artist / album label power index
2 1 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 108,447
FEARLESS
11 2 AC/DC COLUMBIA 58,134
BLACK ICE
5 3 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 57,705
DARK HORSE
8 4 NOW 29 UME 49,481
VARIOUS ARTISTS
1 5 BRITNEY SPEARS JIVE/ZLG 47,321
CIRCUS
9 6 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 38,862
DAVID COOK
3 7 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 32,932
I AM… SASHA FIERCE
6 8 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 29,694
SOUNDTRACK
10 9 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL: SENIOR YEAR WALT DISNEY RECORDS 25,032
SOUNDTRACK
19 10 DAVID ARCHULETA 19/JIVE/ZLG 23,360
DAVID ARCHULETA

CHART DATE: 12/15/2008
LAST UPDATE: 12/15/2008 09:57:02
NOW IN: 36.20%

LW TW artist / album label power index
2 1 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 128,652
FEARLESS
5 2 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 83,441
DARK HORSE
1 3 BRITNEY SPEARS JIVE/ZLG 71,849
CIRCUS
8 4 NOW 29 UME 60,097
VARIOUS ARTISTS
11 5 AC/DC COLUMBIA 58,134
BLACK ICE
9 6 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 53,949
DAVID COOK
3 7 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 47,727
I AM… SASHA FIERCE
4 8 KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 43,778
808S & HEARTBREAK
6 9 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 40,320
SOUNDTRACK
– 10 MUSIQ SOULCHILD ATLANTIC 30,618
ONMYRADIO
19 11 DAVID ARCHULETA 19/JIVE/ZLG 29,030
DAVID ARCHULETA

Well, uh, I guess DC is officially gold then? LOL.

Those updates came fast!

Hey, I just noticed Archie might make the top 10! Go Archie!

Ozarka. Thank you! DCTR has already sold over 38K with 22.24% reporting. Talk about stabilising and growing. Can’t wait for final numbers.

The David’s are lookin’ GOOD so far!

Almost 54K with 36.2% in. DC has officially sold enough to make gold. (I know it’s based on shipping, but the sales numbers are what seem to matter more these days.)

This includes some Walmart (AC/DC) and some Best Buy (GnR is in the second update). Can’t tell about Target, as Xtina is not selling enough anymore to show in the Top 50.

I’m interested to see where JHud ends up this week. She was about 20K shy of gold last week. In the first update, she was at around 4700, but is not showing in the second update.

Ozarka, this is better than watching the election night results. Amazing.

My he got his Gold record with resounding numbers so far.

How many albums has DA sold so far….I forgot.

Go Cookie!!!!!!

Go Archie!!!!!!!

So far they are both keeping up with the “big boys”

duplicate

How many albums has DA sold so farà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦.I forgot.

David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“David Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  Total: 478,504
David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“David Archuletaà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  Total: 371,415

These early numbers are really skewed and it’s hard to make much of them since some retailers where both David’s are stronger sellers in might be reporting first. DC was on sale in Best Buy and since that was most likely at least a portion of them his numbers may look look higher. I expect the next updates will cause a bunch of flip flopping between the bigguns like Beyonce, Britney, Nickelback, etc. I noticed last week High School Musical wasn’t even in the early updates. This was the projected Top 10 as of Friday

YOUR WEAKEND TOP 10 CHART PREVIEW: As the work week winds down, it’s still a tight race for #1 next week, but our crack numbers crunchers are giving a slight edge to Big Machineà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s Taylor Swift (190-200k) over Jive/ZLGà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s Britney Spears (180-190k). With only two weekends left until Christmas, theyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re expecting strong sales on the skyrocketing country star at the big-box accounts, and while Britney could still take the top spot, she’ll have to buck the trend of big second-week drops in order to do so. As for the rest of next weekà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s leader board, ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll be composed of the usual suspects: #3 Beyonce (Music World/Columbia), 140-150k; #4 Nickelback (Roadrunner), 130-140k; #5 Kanye West (Roc-A-Fella/IDJ), 120-130k; #6 Now 29 (UMe) 110-120k; #7 High School Musical 3 (Walt Disney) or Twilight (Chop Shop/Atlantic), both trending toward 100-110k; #9 David Cook (19/RCA/RMG) 95-100k; and finally, at #10, the weekà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s lone debut, Musiq Soulchild (Atlantic), with 90-95k.

The first update included some Walmart, which is traditionally a source of strength for both Davids, given the bonus editions that they’ve got there. The second update included some Best Buy, which should be a source of strength for DC, because of the sale. It’s hard to tell if any Target is in, but that should be at least somewhat of a source of strength for both Davids this week, because they both went on sale starting Sunday. There will be some more Best Buy and Walmart tomorrow.

No itunes yet, although I don’t anticipate huge numbers for either David there. (Some increase for both, with a bit more increase for DC.)

Idol Day at Amazon likely helped both Davids, and the other Idols, but those numbers will be part of the estimated total at the end of tomorrow.

If HDD doesn’t give predictions for those outside of the top 10, does that mean the rest of the CDs are just a mixed bag? Are there indicators for them?

It gives predictions for the top 50. http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/sales/salescht.cgi

This is the top 50 at this time. So, for example, Jennifer Hudson’s CD was in the top 50 with the first update, but is not in the top 50 with the second update.

I think when DC does the promo for his next single/video and knowing SONY,RCA, they will tie it to one of the #1 shows resurfacing in Jan., like Gossip Girl, you know the most watched shows right now. That kind of PROMO really launches a song. Remember Snow Patrol and Chasing Cars. I think this would be a great move.

Thanks FolkFan, but I meant predictions in so far as their sales numbers, not rankings. Are actual sales predictions made for those under the top 10 anywhere?

Yes. For the top 50, at that link.

ETA: If you mean a prediction like what comes out on Fridays at HDD, then the answer is no. There will be an estimated prediction for the top 50 tomorrow on HDD, but HDD only gives predictions for the top 10 or so on Fridays.

I think when DC does the promo for his next single/video and knowing SONY,RCA, they will tie it to one of the #1 shows resurfacing in Jan., like Gossip Girl, you know the most watched shows right now.

But it’s not up to RCA; it’s up to the Music Directors/Supervisors on these shows. And the problem I see with that is what Lefsetz (I think) says — the greysanatomization of music on TV, which was fine a few years ago when alternative and indie music found a venue. But now, almost all TV shows sound the same. Again.

If there’s a show where DC’s sound can find a venue, it would probably be Supernatural — who has a rock soundtrack. Except that it’s classic rock, so AC/DC, Led Zeppelin, etc.

Oh God, hope that Jennifer does the video. That’s my fave song on her CD besides Spotlight.

CHART DATE: 12/15/2008
LAST UPDATE: 12/15/2008 15:28:29
NOW IN: 50.65%

LW TW artist / album label power index
2 1 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 136,489
FEARLESS
1 2 BRITNEY SPEARS JIVE/ZLG 91,073
CIRCUS
5 3 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 89,890
DARK HORSE
8 4 NOW 29 UME 60,490
VARIOUS ARTISTS
4 5 KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 58,247
808S & HEARTBREAK
11 6 AC/DC COLUMBIA 58,134
BLACK ICE
9 7 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 56,920
DAVID COOK
6 8 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 53,795
SOUNDTRACK
3 9 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 52,529
I AM… SASHA FIERCE
– 10 MUSIQ SOULCHILD ATLANTIC 37,892
ONMYRADIO
– 11 COMMON GEFFEN 36,438
UNIVERSAL MIND CONTROL
7 12 AKON SRC/UNIVERSAL MOTOWN 32,666
FREEDOM
– 13 BRANDY EPIC 31,041
HUMAN
22 14 P!NK LAFACE/ZLG 30,229
FUNHOUSE
10 15 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL: SENIOR YEAR WALT DISNEY RECORDS 30,183
SOUNDTRACK
19 16 DAVID ARCHULETA 19/JIVE/ZLG 29,546
DAVID ARCHULETA

I’m assuming this latest one is itunes?

I’m so happy that David Cook will be gold after 4 weeks in this depressed (and I am depressed over the economy) market. To do that on what some consider a “bad” single, gives me great hope that we’ve only seen the beginning and makes me think that second guessing the Sony decision makers is a silly endeavor. Time will tell…

eta because I don’t know my minerals so very well *wink*

Gingerly, so far is just Gold, not yet platinum.

Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m assuming this latest one is itunes?

It seems like that.

oops…meant gold, should I fix that or let my embarassing mistake go on? I vote for fixing it )

Well…”just” gold, or well over halfway to platinum…

However you slice or bake it, it’s sure tasting pretty sweet! Love me some Cookie~

:wub_tb:

ETA: LOL gingerly, now what to do with my silly post! Oh well, I meant well~

:clap_tb:

Cool. I’d been holding my breath that he’d just keep pace with everybody else…hold steady or have a slight increase. That HDD prediction Friday made me very happy. Looks like he’s still on track to meet those numbers, or at least not do less than last week. Phew. Yay Cookie!

And the Archster is still in the Top 20!

Season 7 was a good year. :clap_tb:

How many weeks did it take for Taylor Hicks’ CD to go gold?

Archie has already sold more than Kat and Blake.

It took Taylor two weeks to go gold, but then he proceeded to sell only 200,000 units since December 2006. I think things will shake out a bit differently for Cookie, but yes, people can revel in his “failure to outsell Taylor Hicks” for now : ) He should pass Taylor’s total sales in January.

It took Taylor two weeks to go gold, but then he proceeded to sell only 200,000 units since December 2006.

Yep. These last two weeks before Christmas are the best selling weeks of the year, so that helped him out a bit.

Nevada posted a list of Idol Golds last week on the Idol Chatter record sales post (she’s a goddess when it comes to numbers and record keeping). Here it is:

Clay’s “Measure of a Man” took 1 week (Season 2 – 1st Album)
Carrie’s “Carnival Ride” took 1 week (Season 4 – 2nd Album)
Ruben’s “Soulful” took 2 weeks (Season 2 – 1st Album)
Carrie’s “Some Hearts” took 2 weeks (Season 4 – 1st Album)
Taylor’s “Taylor Hicks” took 2 weeks (Season 5 – 1st Album)
Kelly’s “Thankful” took 3 weeks (Season 1 – 1st Album)
Kelly’s “Breakaway” took 3 weeks (Season 1 – 2nd Album)
Clay’s “Merry Christmas, With Love” took 3 weeks (Season 2 – 2nd Album)
Chris’s “daughtry” took 3 weeks (Season 5 – 1st Album)
Kelly’s “My December” took 4 weeks (Season 1 – 3rd Album)
Fantasia’s “Free Yourself” took 4 weeks (Season 3 – 1st Album)
Bo’s “The Real Thing” took 7 weeks (Season 4 – 1st Album)
Jordinà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Jordin Sparksà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  took 13 weeks (Season 6 – 1st Album)
Clay’s “A Thousand Different Ways” took 21 weeks (Season 2 – 3rd Album)
Kellie’s “Small Town Girl” took 25 weeks (Season 5 – 1st Album)
Elliott’s “Elliott Yamin” took 53 weeks (Season 5 – 1st Album)
Fantasia’s “Fantasia” took 54 weeks (Season 3 – 2nd Album)
Josh’s “Josh Gracin” took 65 weeks (Season 2 – 1st Album)

Golds by Season:
Season 2: 5
Season 5: 4
Season 4: 3
Season 1: 3
Season 3: 2
Season 6: 1

Golds by Artist:
3: Kelly Clarkson, Clay Aiken
2: Carrie Underwood, Fantasia
1: Ruben Studdard, Josh Gracin, Bi Bice, Taylor Hicks, Daughtry, Elliott Yamin, Kellie Pickler, Jordin Sparks

:clap_tb: There’s GOLD in them there hills. Do they have hills in Kansas City? How about Tulsa? ANyway, we have GOLD peeps. Yeah! (So I’m a little excited, so?)

Archie has already sold more than Kat and Blake.

But not as many as Cook. Sorry, couldn’t resist pointing out the obvious…*smacks hand* Bad sunchick, bad!

If thereà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s a show where DCà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s sound can find a venue, it would probably be Supernatural

Okay, I love me some Dean Winchester. Whose portrayer happened to be at Michael Johns’ birthday bash. Cook, did you talk him up? Give him a ring and plant a seed of an idea, come on, do it! You can direct him to this awesome Supernatural fanvid featuring Permanent.

Both Ruben & Taylor were able to reach Gold in two weeks without a Black Friday weekend, and Taylor without either a video or radio play on top of that. Everyone on the list has the success of Gold, they all just reached it in different ways, with different circumstances, at different times. Hurray for them all!

I think the comparison gabam was making was in regards to the sales between the second place winners – Archie, Kat, and Blake – and how DA outsold those two, and gabam was happy about that. The comparison for DC’s sales would be with former winners like Jordan, Carrie, Taylor.

LW TW artist / album label power index % change
2 1 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 254,214 39%
FEARLESS
1 2 BRITNEY SPEARS JIVE/ZLG 192,396 -62%
CIRCUS
3 3 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 161,997 9%
I AM… SASHA FIERCE
5 4 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 161,049 18%
DARK HORSE
6 5 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 133,416 -1%
SOUNDTRACK
4 6 KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 128,113 -12%
808S & HEARTBREAK
8 7 NOW 29 UME 117,728 30%
VARIOUS ARTISTS
11 8 AC/DC COLUMBIA 110,344 33%
BLACK ICE
10 9 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL: SENIOR YEAR WALT DISNEY RECORDS 108,720 29%
SOUNDTRACK
9 10 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 104,539 18%
DAVID COOK
– 11 MUSIQ SOULCHILD ATLANTIC 97,100 –
ONMYRADIO

David Cook. Wow. That is impressive. 104,539 18% Wow.

HDD in final:

LW TW artist / album label power index % change
2 1 TAYLOR SWIFT FEARLESS 254,214 39%
1 2 BRITNEY SPEARS JIVE/ZLG 192,396 -62%
3 3 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 161,997 9%
5 4 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 161,049 18%
6 5 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 133,416 -1%
4 6 KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 128,113 -12%
8 7 NOW 29 UME 117,728 30%
11 8 AC/DC COLUMBIA 110,344 33%
10 9 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL: SENIOR YEAR 108,720 29%
9 10 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 104,539 18%
– 11 MUSIQ SOULCHILD ATLANTIC 97,100 –
– 12 COMMON GEFFEN 84,764 –
12 13 ENYA REPRISE 78,772 17%
13 14 FAITH HILL WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 74,434 13%
– 15 BRANDY EPIC 74,092 –
14 16 IL DIVO COLUMBIA 71,605 11%
18 17 ELVIS PRESLEY LEGACY 64,455 16%
22 18 P!NK LAFACE/ZLG 63,857 46%
7 19 AKON SRC/UNIVERSAL MOTOWN 61,143 -43%
24 20 MILEY CYRUS HOLLYWOOD 60,528 43%
19 21 DAVID ARCHULETA 19/JIVE/ZLG 59,462 9%

I am really happy with those numbers for DC! Way to Go DC!

Yippee for DC!!! Keeping fingers crossed and such… :clap_tb:

I’m happy with those numbers for DA! He’s holding steady as usual, with a 9% increase even!! Congratulations to both Davids! :thumbup_tb:

What? No love for Carrie? She’s on the final list too:

– 50 CARRIE UNDERWOOD 19/ARISTA/RMG 27,705 –
CARNIVAL RIDE

9 10 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 104,539 18%
DAVID COOK

Happy Golden Day, David Cook!!! Woooooooohooooooo!!!

Wow Cookie!

Woohoo for the Cookie!!!!! It’s even a higher number than they predicted isn’t it? I can’t believe he went up 18% and is still in the top 10 after 4 weeks. Incredible.

Good catch, Kirsten. The one past-season Idol in whom I’m most interested this week is JHud. She was within shooting distance of gold this week. I’ll be interested to see what her numbers look like….

I hope that DC’s numbers stick, because breaking 100K in his fourth week out would be great, and really more than I’d dared hope. HDD has been within 3,000 of its prediction for him each week, but no guarantees.

Great numbers for both Davids. David Cook can easily make my prediction of 700-800K by the end of the year, The question would be if he can go over 800K. I think platinum some time in January is a real possibility now, if the numbers won’t slump too severely in the new year.

Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m happy with those numbers for DA! Heà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s holding steady as usual, with a 9% increase even!! Congratulations to both Davids!

DA is nothing if not consistent. lol. Great numbers for him, especially without anything in the way of national promotion lately and a single that hasn’t hit the top 100 on CHR yet (but probably will tomorrow! yay).

But I’m about to throw down at Jive if they don’t increase his shipments for next week. The “sold out” stories are just too many and have been happening for too long for me to think it’s just isolated incidents (my Walmart seems to sell out mid-week, every week). Increase your shipments Jive–people want the album; you can stop being conservative for just one week, please. Oh, and could you put the album on sale at more than just Target? The sale price isn’t even that cheap at Target. Just for one week? Kthnxbye.

Great numbers for both Davids. David Cook can easily make my prediction of 700-800K by the end of the year, The question would be if he can go over 800K. I think platinum some time in January is a real possibility now, if the numbers wonà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t slump too severely in the new year.

He just may get over 800,000 by the 1st January update, but I doubt he goes platinum in January. I recently learned just how bad the January slump typically is, and he’ll be lucky to sell 50,000 that whole month. LOL. I’m thinking March is a good bet to start looking for platinum.

But I’d LOOOVEE to be wrong on that. LOL.

I’m with you on the Jive throwdown, Soundscene. I haven’t seen DA’s physical album for sale on any but the first couple of weeks … it’s been as low as 13.99 and as high as 16.99 in my neck of the woods.

That being said, I’m happy with the numbers for the Davids. I hope they both continue to sell very well.

Gold record for his 26th Birthday. What an awesome birthday present. Wonder what his Christmas present will be? Sleep and Family time. Priceless. Congratulations to all the AI peeps who moved units this week. Way to represent.

The à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“sold outà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  stories are just too many and have been happening for too long for me to think ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s just isolated incidents

I went to my Target this weekend to pick up a copy of DC’s album for my brother. A lot of the artist bins on the popular releases were empty. 3 people (around age 17) walked up and wanted to buy DC’s album, but they walked away and said it was sold out. Since I wanted a copy also, I asked one of the Target clerks. He checked and brought out more from the back. So maybe part of it is the fault of the clerks just being too busy to restock the shelves. (BTW, I told the teenagers the clerk brought out more DC albums…shameless I know….but I helped sell 1 more DC album)

Tinawina’s right. In an ordinary year, January is ugly for music sales. Thus far, there is no reason not to think that January 2009 won’t continue the trend in 2008 of months being uglier than usual.

I’m feeling good about the updated prediction of 700K to 800K as DC’s total by the end of the year, but am trying not to think that it would be any better than that.

Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m feeling good about the updated prediction of 700K to 800K as DCà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s total by the end of the year.

I’ll take that. Conservatively, of course.

When does the year end, officially (or unofficially), for the chart?

Funny, both David will be gold by their Bdays… yay!!!!!!

I just wanted to say congratulations to both Davids. I think 2009 is gonna be a huge year for both of them.

I also just wanted to add that I did some shopping this weekend and I was gonna buy one more DC cd and I noticed that their where several racks of DC..in several places…several was gone out of each slot. DA’s cd was nowhere in sight. I looked because I actually was gonna buy one (since I dont have one yet). I went to walmart next and there was several racks of cooks again, but still no DA…so I dont know whats up with that…I didnt ask, but Im guessing they must have sold what they had..if thats the case, they need to restock or something…JMO….Ill try again this weekend to get DA’s…

I forgot to add that the first place i went was best buy

stock issue gets frustrating.. my walmart today had like 6 places that were well stocked with cookies album and most of the other albums too. yay for cookie. only 3 DA cds in one aisle display out of the music department, none left in his music tab or best sellers/new release..

Target… only had 4 in his section tab in pop/rock, another note there wasnt a tab for cook.. bah.
But the front display aisle where best sellers were both his sections that were on sale… nada.. Cookie had 2 there, also on sale. DA was one of the few spots that was empty… who knows if it was stock or cause it was on sale…

Increase your shipments Jiveà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’people want the album; you can stop being conservative for just one week, please.

I guess I don’t understand. Why would Jive hold back and ruin their own sales? You said that David was very consistent with his numbers, so Jive would have insight into how much he was selling every week. They could increase shipments if they needed to? And I assume Jive knows how much the holiday season means to sales for CDs. I doubt they are sabotaging themselves. They know how these things work don’t they?

When I’ve checked the music sections of various places in Atlanta (Target, Walmart, Borders, Best Buy, and Barnes & Noble), I’ve always seen both Davids’ CDs in stock, with the exception of Barnes & Noble, which seemed to be out of both of DC’s record, but had DA’s. Not sure how that B&N is selling any of either record, given that there are two stores in the same complex that have been selling both CDs at better prices the entire time. But I can only report on the facts.

mac: Sometimes labels estimate wrong and have shipping/stocking issues. It happens. There is no way for sure to know if this is the case here. It’s all speculation.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but don’t stores or at least their distributors decide how many CD’s to order or how many to restock with? I didn’t think the label could decide how many to ship.

When DC might actually sell platinum is too much of a wild card, but given his strong sales I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t at least ship platinum soon.

WOO WOO! Happy Gold Birthday, David Cook! That is awesome. I was keeping my fingers crossed for gold before Christmas, but he did it with 80K to spare a week and change before Christmas. He has to be celebrating big-time with this news, a short vacation, his birthday, Christmas, and everything else rolled up in one big ball of WOOOOOO!

Meanwhile, my s-i-l put DCTR on her Christmas list, so I just bought another today for her stocking stuffer. Helpin’ get DCTR to 800K for New Year’s and maybe platinum for Valentine’s Day! Okay, I will ease up on the pressure and say St. Patty’s Day. I’m an equal opportunity holiday celebrator.

I went to my Target this weekend to pick up a copy of DCà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s album for my brother. A lot of the artist bins on the popular releases were empty. 3 people (around age 17) walked up and wanted to buy DCà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s album, but they walked away and said it was sold out. Since I wanted a copy also, I asked one of the Target clerks. He checked and brought out more from the back. So maybe part of it is the fault of the clerks just being too busy to restock the shelves. (BTW, I told the teenagers the clerk brought out more DC albumsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦shameless I knowà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦.but I helped sell 1 more DC album)

For one store, maybe–but I’m talking about a bunch of incidents, in different stores across the country, over the last 5 weeks–and people asking the clerks to go see if they can find more. There are people in DA’s fan base that are keeping track of this stuff. There are even some that call up their local Wal-Marts and Targets and ask questions about shipments and such. They’ve been told how much stores are getting, and that the retailer can suggest they send more, but ultimately it’s not up to Wal-Mart or Target or Best Buy as to how much they get in.

I don’t think Jive shipped a whole lot. And as a label that supports primarily pop artists I can understand wanting to be conservative with shipments (eventually, unsold stock must be bought back, at a loss to the label, whether the shipment allowed the artist to go platinum or not). Because Jive relies on pop artists (and because Justin Timberlake doesn’t release a massive album every year to compensate for how most pop artists sell), they’re probably trying to minimize the chance that they’ll have to take a loss like that. I do think, however, that they need to ship more for this next week. That’s concerned me and others for a little while now. Christmas shopping is about impulse buying a lot of the time, and that means his CD needs to be somewhere that people can see it–and it simply hasn’t been. Jive is fantastic with radio promotion and branding and creating new artists–and they make a lot of money doing things their own way–but nobody ever said that Jive was the biggest album-selling label, because it’s not. It’s just not what they focus on. We saw it with Jordin and we’re seeing it with David.

Although both Jordin and DA are far better sellers than other pop artists–Lady Gaga, Katy Perry and Jesse McCartney would all kill for Jordin’s or DA’s sales.

stock issue gets frustrating.. my walmart today had like 6 places that were well stocked with cookies album and most of the other albums too. yay for cookie. only 3 DA cds in one aisle display out of the music department, none left in his music tab or best sellers/new release..

Good news DA fans from my “neck of the woods”. I’ve been keeping tabs on my local Walmart and his CD has always been prominently displayed (in endcap of new releases, in Disney section, top sellers, and alphabet section). It also appears to be well stocked, which I (honestly) took as a bad thing since I wondered if it wasn’t selling so well here. Hopefully it’s because the stock boys/girls are doing their jobs well in this small corner of NW Iowa.

ETA: I think a lot of these stock issues has to do with demographics and pockets of fans. Some areas have less fans, and racks appear to be well-stocked, while others have more fans, and hence the store may have underestimated need for numbers. Hopefully, it will be corrected soon.

ETA2: Just for added info, DC was placed in all of the same areas as DA with more space on the display, but had about 1/2 the number of CD’s on the racks. It generally (and I mean generally very loosely and not mathematically :dunce_tb:) corresponds to HDD’s sales estimates that came out today.

I can only report on the facts.

You can only report the facts that you know… someone else may have an entirely different experience to report that is no less accurate than yours.

That is precisely what I meant, kiss kiss. In the stores that I checked, in the city where I live, at the times that I was in those stores, that is what I have seen.

What I mostly meant by that pphrase was that I don’t understand why that store would have sold out of DC’s record, given its price relative to other stores that are literally within easy walking distance, but that it went from having several to having none. I make no representations as to your experience, or anyone else’s.

Good news DA fans from my à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“neck of the woodsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ . Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve been keeping tabs on my local Walmart and his CD has always been prominently displayed (in endcap of new releases, in Disney section, top sellers, and alphabet section). It also appears to be well stocked, which I (honestly) took as a bad thing since I wondered if it wasnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t selling so well here. Hopefully ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s because the stock boys/girls are doing their jobs well in this small corner of NW Iowa.

He’s stocked in some areas, yeah. It probably has to do with location. When labels ship out albums they choose where they believe an artist will sell better and ship more to that location. Nothing is in absolutes–it won’t be an issue in every single Wal-Mart or Target.

I kind of knew if I posted about the shipment issue it could become a “discussion,” but it doesn’t have to be a contentious one. I didn’t poll every retailer, but I do know that fans are frustrated because most aren’t seeing it stocked well, and that includes me.

Record labels don’t control any of this. Vendors do. If a vendor shows most in stock, but one or 2 stores might be out, the vendors won’t order more.

Record labels donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t control any of this. Vendors do. If a vendor shows most in stock, but one or 2 stores might be out, the vendors wonà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t order more.

That’s not true.

Vendors can order more, or they can suggest that the label sends more, but the label has in mind the amount they initially ship. They then get feedback from the vendors and decide how much their next shipment should be.

Um, and yes, it’s all speculation, so nobody has to ask me whether I’ve polled all Targets across the country.

I’m not making excuses–I’m expressing frustration. I’d like my Wal-Mart to actually have the CD in stock this weekend.

And I assume Jive knows how much the holiday season means to sales for CDs. I doubt they are sabotaging themselves. They know how these things work donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t they?

Yes. Hence my frustration as to why it’s not in stock. I said that I wanted it in stock. I also think they probably will increase shipments this week.

edit: do not bait your fellow posters.

WNA thats good to hear ^___^ Hopefully they got competant stock peoples in your stores. lol

I was at a Target here in Kansas City last evening and they had plenty of both DC and DA CD’s. Lots of empty spots too.

I am estastic over both David’s numbers!!!!!!!!!

Yeah, wordnerdarchie, we have DA stock here in my area too. But then I live very near KCMO and the big KC radio station wasn’t exactly kind-hearted when it came to DA post-season. I don’t know if they’ve improved because I stopped listening.

Don’t mean to start anything. I’m just saying there are so many factors that must come into play.

All in all, though, both Davids are doing well. This is exactly what I hoped for — that this would be the season that the winner and runner-up could both do well, and prove such a thing possible. I’d love to see some of the other contestants achieve a better level of success than they had before Idol.

David Cook’s birthday is Saturday, wonder if he will celebrate the gold record on Wednesday? It took him 4 weeks to get nearly 580,000 records sold. Wow. That’s so utterly amazing.

This is a sh*tty retail season. It is up to each retailer to stock product that will be in demand, popular, and move inventory. Some retailers ordered enough inventory of both Davids’ records. Some did not, to their loss. A lot of retailers order a limited number to see how well a product will sell through and then reorder more. While Jive and RCA certainly have a point of view, the retailers like Target, Wal-Mart, Best Buy and Circuit determine what products to merchandise, stock, and re-order. If Target does not have enough DCTR or DATR then Target loses a potential sale which will go to their competitors. Consumers will go to Walmart or BestBuy if they want either records – to the web or another brick and mortar like Barnes and Noble or even Bloomingdales. In NYC, Bloomingdale’s sells DCTR. Both records have been out four and five weeks, respectively, so that’s enough time for retailers to order more inventory and restock for Christmas.

I don’t know if this adds to the discussion at all, but I was in North Carolina over Thanksgiving to visit the daughter and we spent time in Barnes & Nobles. I don’t know how anyone sells any CD’s there, since they’re priced quite high. (I think if I remember correctly that they were $16.99) I had to hunt to find both DA and DC. There was just one small rack for both towards the bottom of one display. I was very disappointed in their placement, and both racks were full. Needless to say, I didn’t buy any there. So I agree with whoever mentioned that DA wasn’t put on sale and that it could affect sales figures. Who determines that, is it the retailer?

Ah yes. Fan War #1456:

My Idol is Selling Less than Your Idol Because the Stores are Running Out

It’s starting right on time I see. Sigh.

And of course there is the ever-popular: My Idol Would Sell More Albums if His Were On Sale Like Your Idol’s fan war.

Gah.

I don’t know what to say here, except that if this conversation gets out of hand, I’m shutting it down. Please don’t beat a dead horse.

Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m not making excusesà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m expressing frustration. Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢d like my Wal-Mart to actually have the CD in stock this weekend.

Well, when I want a CD from a particular artist, and can’t find it in stores, I usually buy it from Amazon (not download, but a physical copy). If I want a CD bad enough for myself or for a present, I find a way to get it on-line. A lot of the retailers also sell on-line (Target, Walmart, Best Buy etc.). And there is always iTunes.

There are so many factors involved, and I am sure that Archie’s case is not unique. There are probably many of the similar problems with other artists, so it probably all washes out in the end.

WNA… I wouldnt buy a cd in B&N unless it was my last ditch effort to find something… that place is expensive….. I havent checked my B&N since the first week and on their displays they only put out like 2 of each cd on the rack.. didnt check the bins.. lol I try to avoid their music section lol

MJ, I thought we were having a very good discussion in marketing practices and demographics, as well as polling of different areas of the country. I found it very informational – or am I dense?

Great numbers for both Davids! Is DA likely to reach gold next week? He’ll be in great shape to recover from any January slump with a new single coming out. Maybe they’ll even let Clive out of his crypt to present the Davids with platinum records before the AI season is over.

I can report that I have never seen either David’s CD in any store because I do not shop for music in retails stores when iTunes and Amazon sell everything for $10.

There are so many factors involved, and I am sure that Archieà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s case is not unique. There are probably many of the similar problems with other artists, so it probably all washes out in the end.

Mmmkay.

I never said his case was unique.

In fact, I think it’s rather non-unique.

I also wasn’t making any commentary about Cook or how much he’s stocked or sold, btw. I really was only ever talking about DA.

WNAà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ I wouldnt buy a cd in B&N unless it was my last ditch effort to find somethingà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ that place is expensiveà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦.. I havent checked my B&N since the first week and on their displays they only put out like 2 of each cd on the rack.. didnt check the bins.. lol I try to avoid their music section lol

Great advice Frogcooke, but it happens to be my daughter’s most favorite store to hang out, so I had to spend some time there. (She has her PhD in English…and I’m a math major….go figure.)

LOL cheese… maybe they’ll leave ole clive in his crypt…..

MJ, I thought we were having a very good discussion in marketing practices and demographics, as well as polling of different areas of the country. I found it very informational – or am I dense?

I’m seeing storm clouds on the horizon. But then, I’ve been here so many times before.

It’s already getting a little testy if you haven’t noticed. The conversation is fine as long as it stays civil.

Well one other poster on another blog went to Wal-Mart and there were 6 stacks worth, of DCTR with only 2 left and somebody right before her grabbed them. She asked a clerk if they had any more. He said they just got 150 in that morning and that it had already sold out and that they can’t get them in fast enough. Good news, but a bummer to make that trip only to be disappointed. This is a big weekend for that last minute stocking-stuffer or oops forgot so-and-so type of gift.

btw my target needs to stock up on some cookie cds as well…..

Heh B&N is fine to hang out in. I go there for starbucks and a browse on occasion… *cough newest archie magazine cough* but yeah… music section is off limits… hahaha The pumpkin cheesecake is good.

A couple weeks ago at my Walmart, they had plenty of DC’s CD and only one DA CD left in the store. I went back the next day and the one CD had sold. This past weekend, it was a bit of the opposite. They had DA’s CD re-stocked both in the New Releases and Pop/Rock sections and only about three or four of DC’s CD remaining. So yeah, a lot of the time I think it’s a stock issue and how on top of things store workers are or how long it takes for the store to get the next shipment.

In any case, I think both Davids are selling very well for their genres and with their different levels of promotion. I’m not gonna lie, I think the Fox Idol commercial is fantastic promotion for DC and I wish DA had something that prominent in terms of promotion but I know DC gets hooked up like that as the winner and it’s just an awesome benefit to have.

That’s why I think David A is doing pretty well for himself under the circumstances.

Gosh…just imagine how many CD’s both Davids would be selling if both Jive and RCA knew what they were doing. It’s a shame what they’ve done to these poor boys. :rolleyes_wp:

^^ Jive knows what it’s doing. But sometimes I express frustration with their strategy. It doesn’t mean I don’t think they probably have a good strategy, whether I’m fully aware of all the factors that play into it or not.

BTW, sorry MJ. I should know better by now.

lol serende yeah I think they are both doing quite respectable in their genres.

Thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s why I think David A is doing pretty well for himself under the circumstances.

Yes he is!

I agree with everyone above that says David A is doing pretty well. It’s wonderful to see.

Oh, and I’ve been off of this board for a while (real life issues) so I haven’t been able to say before how much I like his new video clip that I saw for his next single. That was really cool.

Off-topic comment:

hahaha The pumpkin cheesecake is good.:

Thanks, the next time I’m stranded in B&N’s for 2 hours while my daughter browses, I’ll check it out. :thumbup_tb:

In any case, I think both Davids are selling very well for their genres and with their different levels of promotion. Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m not gonna lie, I think the Fox Idol commercial is fantastic promotion for DC and I wish DA had something that prominent in terms of promotion but I know DC gets hooked up like that as the winner and ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s just an awesome benefit to have.

Yeah, that nationwide commercial is amazing promo… just one of the many perks given to the winner, I guess. DA is doing really well in spite of not having all those advantages, though – more than holding his own, imo. :happy_tb:

And of course there is the ever-popular: My Idol Would Sell More Albums if His Were On Sale Like Your Idolà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s fan war.

We can adjust to the new reality: My Idol Would Sell More Albums Had He A TV Promo for AI.

Again, honestly, this is an issue with the retailers not the record labels. The same thing happens with cosmetics, apparel, toys or any consumer goods product. Retailers don’t have an agenda or bias against either Davids. They just need products that they have pre-ordered from the label to sell. Now sales agreements between vendors and buyers can vary. Some require payment in full of any inventory ordered, whereas others deal with credit. Some companies will also buy back inventory or product that did not sell through as long as they get some space on the floor. Retailers conduct a ton of consumer analysis, trust me they have Consumer Insights & Market Research departments that also buy consumer buying and modeling data from third party vendors. Given how terrible the economy is right now, most retailers are being a little bit more cautious. The last thing you want to do as a retailer is over order anything only to slash prices next month in order to get rid of the inventory. Now if Jive or RCA did not print enough or cannot produce enough CDs to meet the new or growing demands of retailers, then we have reason to blame the labels. But for now, blame the retailers themselves not the label for not having enough product. Also, most companies have sales and merchandising representatives that visit their retail territories. They are not employees of the retailers, but of the vendors/brands, and if they see racks of empty sleaves for both DCTR and DATR, they will tell the DMMs, sales management team and field marketing teams at Target or Walmart to re-order. Most retailers are coming in red this holiday season, so if their is a hot product that will get traffic into the stores then trust me, those retailers will reorder or have an worse season than their competition. Chances are a Target shopper will not just walk out of Target with 1 album – she or he will also pick up sundries and maybe a few discounted movies. All this to say, let the retailers worry about stock. This is not an attempt to sabotage anyone.

We can adjust to the new reality: My Idol Would Sell More Albums Had He A TV Promo for AI.

That is probably Fan War #1457. :laugh_tb:

We can adjust to the new reality: My Idol Would Sell More Albums Had He A TV Promo for AI.

Heh.

If it was the other way around, wouldn’t the Cookies be saying “our David would be selling more if he was doing tons of Gingle Balls and had a new single coming out just in time for Christmas”?

I think they each have some great things going for them, and they’re both doing really well. The marketing is completely different, the comparisons will get less and less obvious as time goes on, but of course, this being Idol, I don’t expect them to go away.

PS – Congrats to Cookie on the Gold for his 26th B-Day!

Mac probably… lol and im not touching that with a 39 1/2 foot pole. lol

You know, SashaB, I love it when you speak marketing.

Yes, thank you SashaB for that really great and informative post. It made a lot of sense and I loved it!

And of course there is the ever-popular: My Idol Would Sell More Albums if His Were On Sale Like Your Idolà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s fan war.

We can adjust to the new reality: My Idol Would Sell More Albums Had He A TV Promo for AI.

Good grief. I’m with MJ. The only reason, it seems to me, that the matter even gets analyzed (rationalized) is the incessant need to “compete.” But, we’ve all agreed at one time or another that there is no such need, and even if there were, it couldn’t be fairly done because they are so different.

I know we all are invested and desperately want our Idol to succeed. I know I do. Certainly nothing wrong with that, I’m sure our boys appreciate all of it! But, I do find it helpful sometimes if I step back to view the big picture. When I do, I see that they both are doing just that, and doing it very well. No need to qualify — “in his genre” or “when compared to Pink” or “considering the success of other Idol contestants” etc, etc, etc… The both are succeeding, period, end of sentence.

P.S. And, btw, I don’t want to speculate about the future. I’m all about the here and now. LOL

:thumbup_tb:

I was just looking at the HDD sales chart again and wow. I just noticed Pink’s increase, 46%. That’s amazing. I am also surprised that Beyonce only got a 9% increase. Most of the other artists got at least a two digit increase. I thought she would do better for Christmas sales.

Steady numbers for the Davids. That’s very good.

And wow for Taylor’s numbers… very impressive. As a gigundo Taylor fan and supporter of both the Davids, I am very happy about this week’s HDD numbers for sure.

Woot! “A Little Too Not Over You” got its first add today–WPRO in Providence, RI. Other stations are playing it, but haven’t yet added it officially (some stations don’t report their adds–like WXKS in Boston that has been playing it).

mac–I haven’t really been keeping track of Beyonce, but once you’re past about the third week, increases and decreases become very specific to that album’s particular path, and since albums that dropped the same week become more and more divergent as weeks go on (for various reasons–often differences in promotion or marketing, or how singles off the album are doing), it’s very difficult to make comparisons based on percentage increases and decreases.

For example, Pink received a nice boost because her second single “Sober” really started to take off last week. But Beyonce’s two singles are still going steady at around the same pace as they were before–moving up, but not exploding from their previous positions. Taylor is just a cross-marketed monster–nobody should be compared to her. Maybe some artists received extra in-store promotion during the holidays (I’ve seen some Disney displays with the JoBros and Miley in them recently); maybe others made a national TV appearances; still others may be more Christmas friendly (like Il Divo or Enya).

Meanwhile, back to the numbers game, let’s see if this makes sense -

There are about 2 weeks and a bit to the new year. For David Cook, we are at ~580K, this week I see him selling 120-150K, next week maybe another 100K (or perhaps more? I’m not really sure how to estimate sales interrupted by Christmas). So we will see ~800K, most likely over 800K. Is that reasonable? I’m assuming that’ll count as the end of the year, or will it be the week after?

Just saw the numbers, sweet! Nice bump for both Davids!

Wow! Cook got 8 adds today on Top40 including Dallas, Atlanta and Philadelphia. It seems like he didn’t get that many last week (can’t really remember), so I was only expecting a couple, but 8! Woot! Not bad for a Christmas freeze! Burr.

I’m just hoping Cook stays above 100K this coming week. Anything more would be gravy at this point.
I believe this week should see a rise for most albums, and next week should be somewhat weaker, is this in any way correct?

About longer projections, my earlier estimate for year’s end figure had DC at 650-700K. If he even comes close to 800K, I’m a very very happy fan.

January is going to be ugly, no doubt, but if December keeps going like this, Platinum might be closer than I dared hope.

I believe this week should see a rise for most albums, and next week should be somewhat weaker, is this in any way correct?

It seems like this week should be really good for sales since this week includes the last weekend before Christmas.

If it was the other way around, wouldnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t the Cookies be saying à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“our David would be selling more if he was doing tons of Gingle Balls and had a new single coming out just in time for Christmasà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ?

They absolutely would. So let’s get back to discussing the numbers, shall we? .

ETA:

Also, please be careful not to lecture your fellow posters. Please stick to your opinions on the topic.

When I moderate, could you please just let my post stand without any “me too” posts?

Thank you.

For David Cook, we are at ~580K, this week I see him selling 120-150K, next week maybe another 100K (or perhaps more? Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m not really sure how to estimate sales interrupted by Christmas).

I think that may be a bit high, but there is no way to really tell.

I believe this week should see a rise for most albums, and next week should be somewhat weaker, is this in any way correct?

Yeah, that’s the general idea. The next sales report will include the weekend before christmas and that’s always huge. But the week after that will include the last actual shopping days before christmas as well as some after christmas sales action, so i am thinking the drop between the 2 weeks may not be as bad as usual.

Oh hey, someone just tole me they heard TOML playing on the biggest loser show. Thought I might let you guys know it was on tv. heh

Btw whats TOML’s numbers up to?

Not sure. I have been asking Ken Barnes for an update on the Magic Rainbow, so I’m hoping that he’ll come through tomorrow. If not, I’ll keep asking politely. [smile]

I think that may be a bit high, but there is no way to really tell.

Well, I always think that sales days just before Christmas will be huge and the CDs are bought by people who aren’t necessarily fans. As long as his CDs get dispalyed prominently enough there will be people who will buy them. I am one of those who shop panic-stricken at the last minute and will just grab CDs off the rack without really thinking too carefully (a terrible idea really, I think I have given too many badly-chosen CDs as gifts, so much so that I fear I might actually have unintentionally broken up a marriage with one such thoughtless gifts. The details are really too gory to recount, but friends, don’t give CDs with any hint of sexual content as gifts.)

Anyway, I think I’ll stick with my prediction of ~250K for the two weeks, personally I think it could even possibly go higher, although I’d be quite happy if it is 50K fewer.

ToML on Biggest Loser? That song is so made of montage. I think it is going to be around for a while in that capacity. Yeah for Reggie Hamm. I hope he has been parlay the song’s success into some other writing opportunities.

Well, I always think that sales days just before Christmas will be huge and the CDs are bought by people who arenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t necessarily fans. As long as his CDs get dispalyed prominently enough there will be people who will buy them. I am one of those who shop panic-stricken at the last minute and will just grab CDs off the rack without really thinking too carefully (a terrible idea really, I think I have given too many badly-chosen CDs as gifts, so much so that I fear I might actually have unintentionally broken up a marriage with one such thoughtless gifts. The details are really too gory to recount, but friends, donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t give CDs with any hint of sexual content as gifts.)

Oh, I agree with all of that! I’ve been guilty of the last minute panic CD purchase more than a few times. LOL. I’m just not sure he’ll get a bump as big as 50% (to 150K) though I see 120 as a relatively safe bet. I think the last minute sales will end up split between the next chart and the one after, so I’m guessing the bumps will be a tad smaller. But I would Love, LOVE to be wrong. I’m rooting for you right now. Ha.

That song is so made of montage.

Bwah! I don’t think I’ve ever seen it put quite that way before but you are soooo right. Magic Rainbows is made for montage-ing.

Last minute panic CD purchases FTMFW.

I just read through the thread and noticed the new adds for LO on Top 40. When I have looked at LO’s position on Top 40 it seemed to be following Hinder’s Without You up the chart. Now it looks as if it might overtake Hinder. I thought LO would top out soon, but it looks like it is gaining some late momentum while Hinder is starting to slow down. I am wondering if Top 40 stations are choosing between them and LO is winning. (They are both rock ballads, and I imagine Top 40 stations will only play so many.) Could it be that better album sales by Cook are influencing the program managers? Of course it may be that Cook is more user friendly to the top 40 crowd being the American Idol and very much less scary than the Hinder guys. And I could also be totally off base with all my speculation – I am just surprised by the by what seems to be a kind late in the game spincreases by LO.

Hinder has already had one major mainstream hit with the hideous “Lips of an Angel.” I don’t think stations would be hesitant to play their new one considering that.

Personally, I hear the two about equally on my local top 40 station.

Of course, any increases that LO gets work for me.

Goshà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦just imagine how many CDà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s both Davids would be selling if both Jive and RCA knew what they were doing. Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s a shame what theyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve done to these poor boys

Barry Weiss, is that you? :ponder_tb: :smirk1_ee:

There is seriously a Hinder song with the title “Lips of an ANgel?” Oh man. Apparently I missed that one.

Anyway, yay Golden Cook (okay, that sounds drrrty), and congrats to fans of other Idols also doing well.

Hinder has already had one major mainstream hit with the hideous à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Lips of an Angel.à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ 

LOL, hideous is right. At first I tolerated the song but when I saw the music video…no, no, no. The lead singer thinks he’s some stud and makes these annoying hand movements when he sings… just… NO. I cannot stand Hinder, I may like Nickelback more than them which is a feat.

I hate it when DC gets compared to these bands, when he was still on AI, I got the comparison coz of the voice quality… but post-AI, his songs are so much better and have more substance.

I hate it when DC gets compared to these bands, when he was still on AI, I got the comparison coz of the voice qualityà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ but post-AI, his songs are so much better and have more substance.

Hinder’s lyrics are idiotic. They truly are posers in that they really try to sell this bogus ” bad boy rawk star” image to unsuspecting fans. It’s really phony.

David Cook >>>>>>>>>> Hinder.

Isn’t Light On co-written by Hinder’s lead singer, or It’s someone else? I have no idea how he looks like, but yeah, can’t stand the Lips song.

I hate it when DC gets compared to these bands, when he was still on AI, I got the comparison coz of the voice qualityà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ but post-AI, his songs are so much better and have more substance.

I think it just became really easy to say that DC sounds like them, even before his album was out he was already in that category, many people are too arrogant to even re-think that… (not that I think there’s anything bad with NB or Daugtry btw)

Could it be that better album sales by Cook are influencing the program managers?

I don’t really know how radio stations work but I’d think good sales would have impact. If an album sells, it’s because people want to listen to that artist… I guess.

Just to clarify, I was not making a quality comparison between David Cook and Hinder. From what little I know of them they make Nickleback look like artistes (French accent) only out to improve the state of music and the world. I was only speculating on why LO seems to be gaining momentum on Top 40 radio at this point. Program managers are not necessarily known for making the quality music pick.

I am very happy with David A.’s sales. He has had very consistent sales so far. I hope that keeps up.

Oh god as much as it pains me Lips of an Angel was HUGE. I absolutely hated that song and I got so sick of it when it was out. I remember shortly after the finale the singer, Austin Winkler told EW he wanted to write for DC and I started to twitch.

Honestly the 8 adds today including the 3 major markets have me stumped. Then again I’m also baffled as to why Z100 suddenly loves LO considering the program director hinted not long ago it wasn’t a great fit for them. By the way LO debuted on Romeo’s 9 at 9 countdown tonight.

No clue about sales for the next couple of weeks but I do hope the SNL rerun will help since a CD is actually available to buy now. He probably has benefited a little from the AI commercial but I don’t watch Fox so I don’t know if they show it a lot or what. I wouldn’t be surprised if the latest Skechers posters/ads are helping a little too. I saw one on a bus stop the other day and one in my local mall. The album ad right on there gives people a reminder who may have liked him on AI and possibly forgot about him he has a CD out.

Isnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t Light On co-written by Hinderà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s lead singer, or Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s someone else? I have no idea how he looks like, but yeah, canà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t stand the Lips song.

Brian Howes, the co-writer you’re talking about, was the producer on Hinder’s first album.

Brian Howes, the co-writer youà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re talking about, was the producer on Hinderà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s first album.

Oh, thanks. I’ve spent all these months thinking the Hinder’s lead singer had written it… :S

but Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢d think good sales would have impact. If an album sells, ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s because people want to listen to that artist

I agree. Being in the top 10 of album sales for 4 weeks straight has to have an influence. I think stations/PDs are noticing that and adding the song. LO seems to be holding steady on iTunes around 40ish and it is climbing on top 40. It seems to be gaining good momentum.

By the way LO debuted on Romeoà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s 9 at 9 countdown tonight.

That’s great! Was it #9?

By the way LO debuted on Romeoà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s 9 at 9 countdown tonight.

Whoa! Thats great, that means the NY audience is responding to the song. I wonder how long it can stay there?

And I could also be totally off base with all my speculation – I am just surprised by the by what seems to be a kind late in the game spincreases by LO.

I’m not surprised. I don’t know anything, but I’m not surprised. I don’t believe we’ve heard the last of LO. If I’m wrong, that’s okay.

LO has pretty much been behaving like a song from your typical alt rock/popish band like Lifehouse. Those move slower overall and chart higher on HAC than on Top 40. So in that sense I’m not surprised by the adds. Where it has always lagged a bit is in actual sales of the single. But you know, there are a lot of perfectly legit ways to interpret all that so I’m not trying to open that can of worms again. In any case, the adds are a good thing and means the song should be peaking when they need it too… during the January/February slump.