Comments on: Monday Morning Mediabase Update – 12/01/08

By: tinawina

tinawina — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 14:59:59 +0000

it really doesnÃƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t make much sense to compare the two Davids, given the different genres, labels, etc.

Amen sister. And I’ll go a step further than that. Nobody can “win” the argument. Because while number themselves are objective facts, they mean nothing without context. And you can give whatever context you want to numbers.

Objective Fact: TOML is platinum appox 6 months after release. Crush is platinum approx 3 months after release
Archie spin: Well lookie there, Crush went platinum faster. Archie wins!
Cook Spin: Cook has the longest charting, highest selling coronation single ever! Cook wins!

Objective fact: DA’s record sales total about 316K after 3 weeks, Cook’s total 387K after 2
Archie spin: Well lookie there! Archie is only 71K behind Cook! We’re gonna catch him! And he had an increase in sales this week while Cook lagged behind!
Cook Spin: Cook is 71k ahead of Archie after only 2 week of sales! Cook is killing him!

You know what I say? If you really want to compare Idols, don’t just compare to the ones that make your boy look good. The cold hard truth here? (this is where both sides hate me – lol) Ain’t neither of these guys Carrie or Daughtry. Those two came in and immediately dominated their genres. I don’t see Miley Cyrus and the Jonas Brothers quaking in their boots. And Nickleback is not looking over their shoulder. Daughtry is not curled up in the corner of his room in a ball of angst. lol. They are both doing well, but no one is a Superstar yet. Both second singles could flop. Or, both could go on to have decent/good record sales – ala Kelly Clarkson’s debut (Yay!). And Rueben Studdard’s (Uh-oh).

This is why you don’t compare Idols. No amount of passive aggressive fanwaring is going to change the fact that you can spin things however you want, and that the ultimate truth will be known in time. A lot of time. 2-3 weeks in will tell you nothing. And for every round you “win” in the comparison game, you will lose another tomorrow. Speculation is fun, but trying to “win” the competition over and over again just generates angst, resentment and anger, and keeps you from enjoying the success your idol does have. In my opinion anyway.

By: May

May — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 14:55:45 +0000

I am wondering if RCA is upset with CookÃƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s sales since they are so much lower than AikenÃƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s sales were. I mean Aiken was only runner-up and all.

Be careful luckee55, you could easily substitute Cook's name with Carrie , Kelly or Archie in that same sentence (and of course change the record label).

By: Trina

Trina — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 14:41:22 +0000

Are you talking about Clay’s sales from 2003? When he sold huge? Surely you can’t mean Clay’s current sales where he’s struggled to sell 150,000 in 6 months? Somehow I doubt RCA is sitting around comparing two weeks of sales from any current artist to someone from five years ago.

By: luckeee55

luckeee55 — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 14:24:07 +0000

I think Jive is just fine with Archie’s sales thus far. I am wondering if RCA is upset with Cook’s sales since they are so much lower than Aiken’s sales were. I mean Aiken was only runner-up and all.

By: noctem seizure

noctem seizure — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 12:55:26 +0000

Edit:

Cooler heads prevail….

By: noctem seizure

noctem seizure — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 12:26:13 +0000

And again we have obituaries being written for “Light On”. LO has gained approximately 8M in AI in the past two weeks for a total of nearly 20M. To put that in perspective, in the seven weeks prior to that since its release, it struggled below 12M. Now, I’m no “expert”, but it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me to talk about pulling the plug on a song just when it’s beginning to take off.

By: Incipit

Incipit — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 08:08:57 +0000

Well, late to the party, but it reads like everybody is happy, and with documented reason to be!
Since I’m so very bad at angst, and it’s coming up on the Holidays anyway, I’m happy too.

There’s really only two reasonable things the Davids have in common, IMO…so I’m wishing both of the left handed Sagittarians gold…if not for their birthdays this month, then for Christmas, because it would make a lovely gift.

By: hypertwink

hypertwink — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 08:06:30 +0000

RS gave the JoBro a 4 star rating(im pretty sure)Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ I take reviews with a grain of saltÃƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦.

Hey, I like their new album. :smile_wp:

By: soundscene

soundscene — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 07:34:14 +0000

Oh lo! Maybe I shouldn’t ever comment on album sales at all. lol. But yeah, what Kirsten says. Whatever Kirsten says I agree with. There ya go.

Since this was for me:

1. It wouldnÃƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t be great in itself, Because at 180K, his first week sales would have been considered a huge disappointment, and first week sales is what gets reported over and over again.

180K first week is never a disappointment for a debut artist. Or really any pop artist. I don’t see how it would have been a huge disappointment for Cook either. But smile, he got 280K.

2. It wouldnÃƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t be great compared to Archie, because the winner is expected to sell more than the runner-up, as you yourself have said repeatedly.

I think you might have me confused with somebody else. I’ve never said that.

3. It certainly wouldnÃƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t be great compared to reality, since itÃƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢d mean 100K less for total sales over 2 weeks, and no chance of Gold before Christmas.

Okee dokee.

The drop off in and of itself wonÃƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t matter one bit, it only matters if oneÃƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s trying to use it to predict the future. If the album continues to drop, there will be real cause for concern. Right now? IÃƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m celebrating wonderful sales for the first 2 weeks.

I’m happy you’re happy.

By: FolkFan

FolkFan — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 07:11:10 +0000

That makes sense to me, CathyMK. As I think that everyone on every side of this, including the ones who say that they’re neutral, it really doesn’t make much sense to compare the two Davids, given the different genres, labels, etc. So, ultimately, the label will be looking at its own considerations, and likely focusing on comparators within genre, other debut artists, etc. My guess is that both Davids look good as debut artists within their genres.

IÃƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve also been wondering about the history of Idol winners and runner-ups getting to make 2nd albums on their original label. Is Clay the only runner-up to get a 2nd album? Is Taylor the only winner that was dropped before a 2nd album?

I’d never thought of it that way, but you know, I think that’s right.

By: CathyMK

CathyMK — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 07:03:44 +0000

Wow. So 83.3% of winners get to make a 2nd album, and 83.3% of runner-ups don’t. (If my math is correct.) That lessens my angst for David Cook a lot, since the odds are very much in favor of him at least getting that far.I hope the label isn’t upset that David Archuleta sold so much less than Clay during his 1st few weeks.

By: JudyOhio

JudyOhio — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 06:40:41 +0000

I actually think I somehow got more invested than it’s being just about the music and their ability to continue to make/record music. I came to care about them as individuals (Archuleta and Cook) and want their personal success in this business. It’s sorta like watching your brother (or any other relative or friend for that matter) on a journey to becoming a “star”. I am enjoying watching their growth and development. It seems I care if they are happy with themselves and their work, etc. I guess this happens because AI gets into their back story and we learn a lot about them. And then we read MJ’s or DCO or FOD and learn more. You know, usually, I just stumble on a new artist and have no idea where they came from or know anything about their personal life and don’t even care. So, the idols are sort of their own nation in a way, lol. I’m a fan of many artists, but not to this extent, which is interesting to me how that happens.

By: Kirsten

Kirsten — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 06:37:40 +0000

IÃƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve also been wondering about the history of Idol winners and runner-ups getting to make 2nd albums on their original label. Is Clay the only runner-up to get a 2nd album? Is Taylor the only winner that was dropped before a 2nd album?

Yes and Yes.

Kellie Pickler and Josh Gracin also made second albums for their original labels, but they were not runner-ups. Daughtry is obviously in the process of making his second album for his original label as well. Jordin has not yet made her second album, but I think that it is likely that she will.

By: CathyMK

CathyMK — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 06:32:06 +0000

When RCA looks at the $bottom line$ they arenÃƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t going to care whether or not he beat GnR, theyÃƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll care about actual numbers and if theyÃƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re making or losing money.

Well, it seems to me that the label has to have some way to decide what the expectations for an artists sales should be within a given period of time. How long would it take for the average pop album to go gold, for example? How long for the average debut artist? If historical averages are now useless because of the steep overall decline in sales, then comparing the artist to other recent and current album sales in the same genre would seem to make the most sense. That’s how it’s done in real estate, where the market and prices fluctuate constantly. In which case, selling more than a long anticipated album like Chinese Democracy would most certainly be taken into account. Going gold in 4 weeks would be better than going gold in 6 months. Percentages don’t really matter in the long run either. If the expectation is that an album needs to have sold 500,000 in 3 months in order to make it worth the continued $$ it costs to promote the album and to make a 2nd album, the label won’t care about sales percentage changes from week to week. They’ll care about raw numbers. Almost 400,000 in 2 weeks has got to look pretty good for a debut artist this year.

I’ve also been wondering about the history of Idol winners and runner-ups getting to make 2nd albums on their original label. Is Clay the only runner-up to get a 2nd album? Is Taylor the only winner that was dropped before a 2nd album?

By: cookcricket

cookcricket — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 06:20:23 +0000

Whew, and now the big guns are coming out. LOL. My third string quarterbacking arm is getting tired, so I’m going to have myself a “Happy Christmas” and enjoy myself a Jingle bell jammin’ rockin’ week next week in Columbus with David Cook(thanks for heads up a while back cheese if you read ths)!! I hope the Staind fans see what a great live show DC gives!

I like the looks of the cheerleading from the sidelines.

Go DC!
Go DA!

But that’s just me, for now, because I can’t put my DC angsting away for long. LOL!