Monday Morning Mediabase Update – 12/01/08

lmao @ “No Air” STILL being on the AC charts. Gotta love that format.

Everybody’s charting today. Go Idols!

Checking out the AC chart right now is a bit like watching the slaughter of the non-X-mas songs. I’ve never thought of Xmas songs as so sinister before….

Quick question – A couple of days ago I read an article on Billboard about TOML having 10 weeks at the top of the AC chart, and what that means compared to other male artists.
Is it now on its 11th week, or still the 10th, and how likely is it to survive much longer with the Xmas songs taking over?

I’m not sure if I want that song to die already or live on forever and ever.

That was 10 weeks based on last week’s Billboard chart. That is based on the R&R charts. R&R uses a different set of stations than does mediabase, and which does not report on a daily basis as does mediabase. My guess is that Magic Rainbow will be #1 again on the AC chart this week, but I would not bet money on it managing to stay there a whole lot longer—just about every regular song on the AC chart is getting decimated, and the most lost spins seem to be coming from the top few songs. Magic Rainbow could get briefly passed by another regular song (maybe Viva la Vida), but my guess is that Josh Groban will take over the top spot for the rest of the holiday season in fairly short order.

R&R uses a different set of stations than does mediabase

FolkFan is right, but I just wanted to clarify this (and this is probably what she meant). R&R and Mediabase do use different sets of stations, but many stations are common between both sets (e.g. the infamous Z100).

Yep. Because there is a fair amount of overlap, you can use the mediabase updates to estimate where a song will land on the R&R/Billboard chart, but they don’t always match. As an example, LO has been higher on Top 40 more than once on R&R than it was on the mediabase chart covering the same period of time.

CHART DATE: 12/01/2008
LAST UPDATE: 12/01/2008 11:08:35
NOW IN: 37.17%

LW TW artist / album label power index
– 1 KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 223,643
808S & HEARTBREAK
– 2 GUNS N’ ROSES GEFFEN 148,183
CHINESE DEMOCRACY
4 3 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 128,291
FEARLESS
1 4 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 93,269
I AM… SASHA FIERCE
7 5 NOW 29 UME 88,653
VARIOUS ARTISTS
2 6 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 87,248
DARK HORSE
– 7 LUDACRIS DEF JAM/IDJMG 65,178
THEATER OF THE MIND
10 8 AC/DC COLUMBIA 55,954
BLACK ICE
6 9 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 45,339
SOUNDTRACK
3 10 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 42,971
DAVID COOK
– 11 KILLERS ISLAND/IDJMG 40,850
DAY & AGE
15 12 T.I. GRAND HUSTLE/ATLANTIC 35,900
PAPER TRAIL
11 13 DAVID ARCHULETA JIVE/ZLG 33,168
DAVID ARCHULETA

Go Davids!

I’m very pleased with those numbers so far. I’m not going to get overexcited yet, though. Early numbers can be deceiving.

Soundscene, do you have any sense as to whether Best Buy splits its report to HDD? I know that Walmart typically does, and this would appear to include some Walmart because of AD/DC, but this must include some Best Buy, because it includes GnR. But if that’s all of BB? Then the projections for GnR were probably really off. I doubt that GnR could make up 150K on itunes.

Soundscene, do you have any sense as to whether Best Buy splits its report to HDD? I know that Walmart typically does, and this would appear to include some Walmart because of AD/DC, but this must include some Best Buy, because it includes GnR. But if thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s all of BB? Then the projections for GnR were probably really off. I doubt that GnR could make up 150K on itunes.

Short answer is, I don’t know. Since we haven’t had a Best Buy/iTunes exclusive so far as I’ve been watching. But it would be a good bet that they’re splitting sales because I agree, GnR isn’t selling 150K on iTunes, and I don’t think they’ll so massively underperform from HDD’s projections (300-500K). Wal-Mart splits, as we know, and Target splits as well (Christina’s Greatest Hits gets 2 updates every week).

While we obviously are watching for other reasons than GnR, it’ll be interesting to see how that all pans out. Given that we never got a “rumor” update from HDD, and the last rumor was based on the first day or so in a weird week, GnR is especially hard to call.

Man, I can’t imagine that’s all GnR would sell. That album has been pimped sky-high and the streaming rates were insane. Unless everyone who listened hated it and busted out their Appetite/Use Your Illusion 1/2 from the collection (me). I think it has to be coming in waves.

Anecdotally, those NOW collections always sell like crazy during the holidays. I used to work in a CD store when we were selling NOW 8 (ha, sooo long ago). Usually it’s parents who have no idea what music their kid listens to.

Love that Kristy Lee is still hanging in there. She deserves some promotion from her label and is getting zilch.
Good for David Cook. His ability to make drecky songs like Time of My Life and Light On popular radio songs shows his immense popularity. Imagine what a good song from him will do.
And David Archuleta is hanging in there. I like him, heck I really like all of this years contestants but have to admit I did not see him as top 40 material at all. Happy that he proved me wrong.

Billboard is currently projecting 220-250K for GnR and about 425-450K for Kanye West. Not quite the blockbuster week that they were thinking. Should be an interesting update tomorrow (er, later today).

Love that Kristy Lee is still hanging in there.

She’s the only Idol currently on the Country chart. Country has been good to the Idols and there are normally quite a few of them there. I did not expect that. I wonder when/if Carrie is going to release another single.

CHART DATE: 12/01/2008
LAST UPDATE: 12/02/2008 11:49:00
NOW IN: 54.98%

LW TW artist / album label power index
– 1 KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 333,706
808S & HEARTBREAK
4 2 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 165,352
FEARLESS
– 3 GUNS N’ ROSES GEFFEN 148,183
CHINESE DEMOCRACY
– 4 LUDACRIS DEF JAM/IDJMG 125,203
THEATER OF THE MIND
7 5 NOW 29 UME 114,103
VARIOUS ARTISTS
1 6 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 114,003
I AM… SASHA FIERCE
2 7 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 106,908
DARK HORSE
– 8 KILLERS ISLAND/IDJMG 76,089
DAY & AGE
6 9 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 69,125
SOUNDTRACK
3 10 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 61,208
DAVID COOK
10 11 AC/DC COLUMBIA 55,954
BLACK ICE
8 12 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL: SENIOR YEAR WALT DISNEY RECORDS 51,735
SOUNDTRACK
15 13 T.I. GRAND HUSTLE/ATLANTIC 46,042
PAPER TRAIL
11 14 DAVID ARCHULETA JIVE/ZLG 45,237
DAVID ARCHULETA

CHART DATE: 12/01/2008
LAST UPDATE: 12/02/2008 11:52:43
NOW IN: 69.42%

LW TW artist / album label power index
– 1 KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 423,367
808S & HEARTBREAK
4 2 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 181,503
FEARLESS
– 3 GUNS N’ ROSES GEFFEN 176,164
CHINESE DEMOCRACY
– 4 LUDACRIS DEF JAM/IDJMG 152,572
THEATER OF THE MIND
– 5 KILLERS ISLAND/IDJMG 129,416
DAY & AGE
1 6 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 127,956
I AM… SASHA FIERCE
2 7 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 120,268
DARK HORSE
7 8 NOW 29 UME 114,103
VARIOUS ARTISTS
6 9 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 103,336
SOUNDTRACK
3 10 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 61,208
DAVID COOK
10 11 AC/DC COLUMBIA 55,954
BLACK ICE
8 12 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL: SENIOR YEAR WALT DISNEY RECORDS 54,704
SOUNDTRACK
15 13 T.I. GRAND HUSTLE/ATLANTIC 48,942
PAPER TRAIL
11 14 DAVID ARCHULETA JIVE/ZLG 46,867
DAVID ARCHULETA

Cross-posted

4 2 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 165,352
FEARLESS

Taller is a monster….lol, still good numbers for the Davids…

Does anybody has numbers of how Jordin ´s sells were week after week last year …please…

Really odd 55% to 70% update. Kanye got a huge boost, David A. got about 2K but Cook stayed the same. What the heck retailer is that?

ETA: Must be part of Best Buy since GnR got a bump.

^^ Was about to comment on the same. Quick glance tells me DC, AC/DC (haha, sorry) and Now are the only ones who didn’t get any bump from the latest update.

Kayne got his boost from the urban stores.

So no more walmart came in if there was no increase on AC/DC. And I’m still thinking that itunes is missing, with Coldplay’s EP out of the top 50.

A very strange update.

nvm… i think iTunes is probably still outstanding–or part of it, because of GnR’s numbers.

Target looks to be outstanding, and part of Wal-Mart.

I’d seen later-week estimates of 85K for the Coldplay EP. Some of its sales would be Amazon, where it was dirt cheap, but I’d think some of it would be itunes, where it was in the top 5 for pretty much the whole week.

Also, if Best Buy and itunes are both in, then even the estimates from yesterday for GnR were way too rosy, because GnR is only sitting at 176K, and the Billboard estimates were for 220K or a bit higher. As the estimate was yesterday and there were only two retailers for billboard to survey for GnR, I’d think that billboard wouldn’t be off by 20%.

^^ I modified my post b/c of GnR.

CHART DATE: 12/01/2008
LAST UPDATE: 12/02/2008 13:00:19
NOW IN: FINAL

LW TW artist / album label power index % change
– 1 KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 443,559 —
808S & HEARTBREAK
4 2 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 257,047 23%
FEARLESS
1 3 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 254,555 -50%
I AM… SASHA FIERCE
– 4 GUNS N’ ROSES GEFFEN 254,341 —
CHINESE DEMOCRACY
– 5 LUDACRIS DEF JAM/IDJMG 212,551 —
THEATER OF THE MIND
– 6 KILLERS ISLAND/IDJMG 189,970 —
DAY & AGE
2 7 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 170,832 -47%
DARK HORSE
6 8 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 161,333 38%
SOUNDTRACK
7 9 NOW 29 UME 139,038 22%
VARIOUS ARTISTS
3 10 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 108,646 -62%
DAVID COOK
8 11 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL: SENIOR YEAR WALT DISNEY RECORDS 100,033 15%
SOUNDTRACK
10 12 AC/DC COLUMBIA 90,540 27%
BLACK ICE
– 13 COLDPLAY CAPITOL 84,691 —
PROSPEKT’S MARCH
5 14 IL DIVO COLUMBIA 83,511 -46%
PROMISE
– 15 BARRY MANILOW ARISTA/RMG 79,432 —
GREATEST SONGS OF THE 80S
15 16 T.I. GRAND HUSTLE/ATLANTIC 74,608 49%
PAPER TRAIL
14 17 FAITH HILL WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 71,639 42%
JOY TO THE WORLD
11 18 DAVID ARCHULETA JIVE/ZLG 68,248 8%
DAVID ARCHULETA

Nice job, Davids! :thumbup_tb:

Work that gain David A.!!!

Great numbers for both Davids!

To get the idea of how Black Friday helped–David A. should have dropped about 25% this week, pulling in 40K or so–instead he gained 8% (well, from this estimation). We’ll see how the final SoundScan numbers look when Ken Barnes talks about them tomorrow.

Yay Archie sold 2k more… Good number for the Cookie too…

Does anybody has numbers of how Jordin ´s sells were week after week last year à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦pleaseà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦

Here is her march to Gold.

Week 1: 9 Jordin Sparks à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Jordin Sparksà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  119,119 Total: 119K
Week 2: 18 Jordin Sparks à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Jordin Sparksà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  51,804 (-57%) Total: 170,336
Week 3: 24 Jordin Sparks à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Jordin Sparksà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  52,482 (1%) Total: 222,473
Week 4: 26 Jordin Sparks à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Jordin Sparksà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  62K (17%) Total: 283K (24)
Week 5: 28 Jordin Sparks “Jordin Sparks” 88,833 (44%) Total: 370,832
Week 6: 40 Jordin Sparks à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Jordin Sparksà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  36,481 (-59%) Total: 407,313
Week 7: 44 Jordin Sparks à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Jordin Sparksà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  17,697 (-52% ) Total: 424,620
Week 8: 50 Jordin Sparks à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Jordin Sparksà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  12,416 (-30% ) Total: 436,768
Week 9: 48 Jordin Sparks à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Jordin Sparksà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  12,569 (1%) Total: 449,037
Week 10: 49 Jordin Sparks à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Jordin Sparksà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  12,598 (0.2%) Total: 461,303
Week 11: 53 Jordin Sparks à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Jordin Sparksà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  13.5K (7%) Total: 474K
Week 12: 44 Jordin Sparks à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Jordin Sparksà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  16,916 (26%) Total: 490,720
Week 13: Jordin Sparks à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Jordin Sparksà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  19,898 (18) Total: 510,618

Week 1: Black Friday
Week 5: Week Before Christmas
Week 6: Week Including Christmas
Week 7: January
Week 11: Jordin Performs at the Superbowl
Week 13: Idol Semi-Finals (Top 24) begins

Double-u-tee-eff at barry manilow….. lol

nice job guys!

WOW…. :clap_tb:

Hooray for the Davids!!

Who knew that TI was Christmas-appropriate??

^^Thank you Kirsten…
:clap_tb:

3 10 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 108,646 -62%
DAVID COOK

Nice…

Double-u-tee-eff at barry manilowà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦.. lol

Barry goes on the shopping channel (QVC) and sells a lot of CDs that way. I really don’t get that channel at all, but it must make some major money if they can sell Paula’s jewelry.

By the way, nice to see the start of the Christmas season where numbers go up. Only 9 albums went down in the top 50 (and they were mostly CDs released last week which could not really be expected to sustain sales).

Rock that QVC smash Barry!

By the way, nice to see the start of the Christmas season where numbers go up. Only 9 albums went down in the top 50 (and they were mostly CDs released last week which could not really be expected to sustain sales).

A lot of them got an AMA boost as well–Pink, Miley Cyrus, the Jonas Brothers, Taylor Swift, Coldplay (Viva La Vida). Then you have a bunch of Christmas albums that are going to get a boost this time of year. So I would say for some, they got a double Black Friday/AMA boost.

Thanks for the numbers on Jordin, Kirsten.

Some of the CDs that had boosts also were part of big sales, so a combination of a lot of different factors out there.

^^ Oh, yeah, Beyonce and Taylor were on sale for really cheap in a lot of stores. Neither David had sales going on for their albums.

Oh, and I think we can now say officially that StreetPulse is lame. lol. They predicted a 23% drop-off for David A. this week.

To get the idea of how Black Friday helpedà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’David A. should have dropped about 25% this week, pulling in 40K or soà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’instead he gained 8% (well, from this estimation).

I would also say that appearing in the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day parade gave David A. an increase also.

I would also say that appearing in the Macyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s Thanksgiving Day parade gave David A. an increase also.

To a certain degree, yes. All promotion helps. Like Ellen and the Rockafeller Tree Lighting will help Cook’s sales this week. That’s pretty much established.

Dang, 108K is good, but Cook’s drop would have been really huge this week without Black Friday. (No one else in the Top 50 had a drop nearly that big) The Idol fanbase is probably spent and I don’t think LO is really gaining him a lot of new fans. New Top 40-friendly single, please!

Great numbers for DA for his third week. He’ll probably outsell DC by Christmas with a new single coming out and Crush still getting a lot of radio play.

I feel like I’m alone here but is 108,000 really that good? I looked at IDF and a couple of other places where they’re erupting in tears of joy and bouncy smilies and I’m like HUH? I guess I don’t see a 62% on the biggest shopping week of the year as something all that great. Granted the sales in general don’t seem that mega for Black Friday but still, that’s a big tumble compared to even the others that released last week. In fact I’m betting last week was such a popular release date so artists would benefit from a BF cushioned drop.

I think 108,000 is good.

Very happy with the numbers this week. Looks like D-squared will have gold albums by the start of the new year (maybe sooner). :happy_tb:

^^ I hope so! As long as they’re steady, they should make it.

New Top 40-friendly single, please!

:clap_tb:IÂ ´m with you

Great numbers for DA for his third week. Heà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll probably outsell DC by Christmas with a new single coming out and Crush still getting a lot of radio play.

Thank you :drunk_tb:

I feel like Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m alone here but is 108,000 really that good?

A) 108K is good in this market.
B) A 62% drop during Black Friday week is not great.
C) Final numbers are not in yet, so the drop might not be that big.

I know that people are saying that 62% is within the normal 50-70% range that you get, but you do have to factor in the week in question. So, forget normal drops. The market was up this week and, like the tide, that generally floats all boats.

So, what does this mean? I could mean a lot of things. It could mean that shoppers were just looking to buy discounted things. It could mean that Cook’s sales were bloated with lots of pre-orders last week and things will settle down soon (there are much worse things than selling 100K every week). It could mean that Cook needs a new single, stat.

We will have to wait to see what the real numbers are and how this plays out over the next several weeks before we can state anything definitively. The only thing I do know is that this post will cause me to be burned in effigy. Again. Oh well.

108,000 is good, and I hope that it holds when we get the soundscan numbers tomorrow. Assuming that is the number, it is very likely that DCTR will be gold by Xmas, possibly by a good margin.

In the meantime, LO’s growth in Audience Impression in the past few days has been very good—one of the ten best in the country based on the most recent numbers that I saw. It is likely to be in the #30 on Top 40 by tomorrow, and up to #27 or higher by the next published Mediabase chart. So, no, there won’t be a new single any time soon. My guess is they’ll try to launch the second single to coordinate with LO winding down on Top 40/HAC and the start of the new Idol season.

Well, I don’t see how anyone can think that selling 400,000 albums in only two weeks is not good! Holy smokes. I think Cook has done great. I was thinking that if he got close to 100k this week, I would be ecstatic.

Everytime I hear about radio play increasing it only reinforces my believe that, well, something is off considering the sales. JMO of course. I’m sure RCA is pleased to see radio play and audience impressions increasing, but I bet they would be happier to see that translate into sales for either the album or LO as a single.

FWIW Kristen know that I appreciate your honest take on all things.

eta: I don’t know if this was mentioned but both David’s CDs are featured in this weeks Walmart circular.

The only thing I do know is that this post will cause me to be burned in effigy. Again. Oh well.

Uhm. Not here you won’t. *smiles*

Considering the market, it seems to me like both boys are doing well.

I also think that David A having a cumulative total of around 317k, with that 8% increase from these final numbers is outstanding! There’s only around 71k albums difference between he and DC now, correct? If both their luck holds, they could both be in Gold status by beginning of the year… KUDOS to both!! My fingers are crossed, hoping that the release of ALTNOY next week, and his upcoming appearances help spur more sales! Steady and consistent sales are the ticket – Well Done David A!

eta: I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t know if this was mentioned but both Davidà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s CDs are featured in this weeks Walmart circular.

I saw that too. I was kind of peeved that neither are on sale, though. lol.

I feel like Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m alone here but is 108,000 really that good?

I’ll take it. Earlier today I was thinking he’d be just under the 100K mark, so I’m happy with 108K.

Now the real test begins-we’ll see in the next few weeks if the increased airplay for LO will be enough to help keep the album sales steady going into the new year. I hope so.

Uhm. Not here you wonà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t. *smiles*

Thanks. That’s one of the reasons I post here. Sometimes it’s nice to debate things civily without having to have the fire ant spray at the ready.

Sales should probably trend downward this week and then start to pick up through December, so that should help everybody’s stats.

Kirsten, I have the utmost respect for your opinions (and your stats). I tend to look on the negative side of things, so your thoughts tend to help me decide whether I have cause to worry or not. I’m not going to be striking a match for any burning.

I would have like to have seen a smaller percentage drop to be sure, especially around Black Friday, but if the pre-order sales were huge, it may just be a natural adjustment in overall sales. But I would still like to see another single released sooner than later.

I still say that we don’t know the degree to which LO is selling the record. After the initial rush of DC fans bought the first week, an estimated 108,000 more copies were sold. How many of those were because people heard LO and decided to check out the record? We don’t know.

LO, like a lot of other rock songs, will probably never be a huge seller. But the last couple of weeks, its itunes position has generally been stronger, reaching into the 40s and 50s. So, as LO has been played more and reached more people, LO has sold more, at the same time that DCTR has been having strong sales. (We’re not sure how many more sales LO had during this timeframe because LO was affected last week by “complete your album” reductions. We may be able to infer something from this week’s numbers—we’ll see.)

My guess is that LO is strong enough to get DC and DCTR into the New Year with at least gold numbers, if not a bit higher, in time for a new single to carry the football.

But Kirsten.. we like you and your calculator here. As well as mj and her hat.

Oh, these discussions are the bomb. Intelligent, rational discourse FTW! Kirsten reigns supreme and brings so much knowledge into the mix. These threads are informative and fun. Mj keeps it all going with the right mix of know how and an occasional cracking of the whip.

Both of the guys are doing so well. It’s interesting watching the numbers each week and how promotion and radio play figures into how these cds will sell. It’s almost like a game of chess.

Thanksgiving week is not the biggest shopping week of the year. The week before Christmas is. I think 108,000 is a good number. One day last week was Thanksgiving so little sales that day. I think the record will be gold by Christmas. Then next year we will have the concert series starting and a new single. We have to remember that David has done well against other rock records this year. The Killers only sold around 189,000. His first week sales have beat GNR. Nickelback has outsold him but that is Nickelback. He sold more in the first week than Pink. This is all good news. I think he is doing wonderful. He is a new artist just breaking in. He is the only new artist in the top 10. I am really happy with all of this. Great that Archie is doing well.

YEA for both Davids

I am thrilled with numbers when you consider economy and the just the fact that DC is selling better then some of his peers in his genre is awesome

He outsold

Seether, Puddle of Mudd, the Killers, Oasis, Kings of Leon, Pink in first 2 weeks and G&R in his first week

to me that says DC is here to stay and do well in his long career..

and when you take into account NO sales on Tday I htink 108,000 for 6 days is great.. Also I believe sales were lower then expected on the big sellers too .
And they actually say week before xmas is a bigger shopping week then BF week, all those last minute stocking stuffers LOL

So glad DA is doing well too and wish him the best.

I think Kristen is spot on about the pre-sales contributing to the larger drop in DC sales compared to other records. Here to hoping he bounces around the 100K mark for a while. Good point regard genre SamIAm.

Hopefully Gold by new years? Go DC!!!

Trina, I guess I am seeing the data a little differently. I feel that LO’s rise up the charts (as far as Top 40 and HAC placement) contributed materially to the great sales Cook has experienced so far. We only have two weeks to go on as far as data, so it’s a bit hard to draw conclusions. If David had really low sales figures, I would buy the idea that LO did not do its job. Experiencing a normal week over week drop does not say to me that LO’s rise is for naught. I realize that Black Friday could be expected to provide a less than normal drop, but there is also the fact that there were no sales for Thanksgiving. I understand he had the biggest drop in the top group, but I suspect he experienced the front-loaded sales effect dampened a bit by Black Friday, none of which necessarily reflects on LO. I am not sure there is any way to prove any of this, but it’s my gut feeling.

Any way you look at it, though, nearly 400k sales in 2 weeks looks awfully good.

DC is not going to crash and burn. 400,000 in slightly less than two weeks other artists would kill for right now. Way to go David!

As far as the -62% someone should tell Beyonce she is going to crash and burn too since she is at -50%.

Trina: “Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m sure RCA is pleased to see radio play and audience impressions increasing, but I bet they would be happier to see that translate into sales for either the album or LO as a single.”

Hm,I would say that nearly 400,000 albums sold in two weeks would be a solid indication that sales have been translated. I would imagine that RCA is quite pleased with DC right now.

^^^
Hm. I don’t think anyone has suggested that DC is going to crash and burn. Just that the 62% drop compared to the rest of the group is worth noting. And I think it is worth noting.

It got my attention.

The way I look at it, 108K on the 2nd week is awesome, whichever way you spin it. Seems like the griping is about the drop off and not the actual number…
Would it have been better if he had less of a drop off because of lower 1st week figures?
Close to 400K in two weeks is wonderful. I’m ecstatic for him. Hardly seems like the figures to send us into panic mode. We’ll see how the album continues to do over the coming weeks, but I feel there’s a very good chance for Gold before Christmas, and that would be absolutely wonderful.

Hm. I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t think anyone has suggested that DC is going to crash and burn.

Na they didn’t, that was my words. I think DC is doing great & almost 400,000 sold is nothing to sneeze at. I can’t say why it dropped that much but honestly before the week even started I was hoping he would get at least 80,000 & he did well over that. I look at Beyonce and she is a huge established star with a big big album & yet she dropped -50%.

Just curious why -62% drop for DC would raise an eyebrow when he moved over 100k units but DA’s -64% drop last week from his first week numbers didn’t raise the same concen or maybe it did? Should we be concerned? I like Archie, honestly, and I want him to do well. I personally think both Davids are doing great and have put up solid numbers with their respective albums and singles. Am just curious?

Me too Sasha. I am clueless as well in regards to that.

Just curious why -62% drop for DC would raise an eyebrow when he moved over 100k units but DAà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s -64% drop last week from his first week numbers didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t raise the same concen or maybe it did?

It didn’t. His fans were over the moon.

I think people may have built unreasonable expectations for BF, and one can’t ignore the economy and the fact that as a whole CD sales didn’t live up to the hype. G’n'R sold less in it’s first week, a BF week, than DC did last week. That’s incredible.

So DC got a regular week decrease on a BF week? OK, he still sold over 100K. He still made the top 10 bestsellers list. He’s doing really really well.
If he takes a freefall next week and the week after that, I’ll start worry. Right now? I’m very pleased.

SashaB, I think it’s because higher sales were expected because it was Black Friday which, although not factually supported by the numbers, is considered the start of the busiest shopping weekend of the year. One way to compare how large a bump Black Friday week is supposed to give an artist may be to get the cumulative totals for the Top 20 or so albums for Black Friday week vs. last week. If there’s a significant jump in cumulative albums sold, then perhaps a Black Friday hype is justified. If not, then it’s all just, well, hype.

Per this Billboard article:

http://www.billboard.com/bbcom/news/kanye-guns-n-roses-post-slow-debut-week-1003918220.story

It’s certainly the case that compared to Black Friday last year, this year’s Black Friday sucked big time in terms of music sales. The top two most anticipated releases for Black Friday week fell far short of their predicted numbers. Besides Kanye and GnR’s underperforming, the Killers, sadly, also did very poorly. (Still can’t be believe GnR’s numbers. Wow.)

I think the general run of things is that all albums drop around 60% or so after the first big week. However, Black Friday sales are supposed to counter than effect so if you look at the charts, an amazing number of albums have huge plus signs next to them. And the albums released last week all have “relatively” small drops (40-50%). So Cook actually has the biggest drop of any album on the Top 50 (if the numbers hold.)

I think the big drop is due to the huge pre-sales he had. Plus LO is not a big enough hit to really push the mass sales

Archie got a nice little boost from his Thanksgiving Parade appearance. But he’ll need another big hit (bigger than Crush) to match Jordin’s numbers.

Since there’s another 3 !/2 weeks of sales before Xmas, There is no doubt that Cook (and probably)Archie will go gold. As a matter of fact, they both probably are gold already based on shipments. But Gold is just a small stop on the way to platinum for 19R.

Just curious why -62% drop for DC would raise an eyebrow when he moved over 100k units but DAà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s -64% drop last week from his first week numbers didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t raise the same concen or maybe it did?

Correct me if I am wrong, but I think that DA’s 65% drop is normal for regular weeks (Taylor swift was about the same), but the week of Thanksgiving is supposed to be a much better week given black Friday sales. As far as I could see on a major DA fansite, people weren’t concerned about the drop, since it was deemed normal. They ARE concerned that the stores don’t seem to have much stock. DA fans are ecstatic with the 8% increase for Thanksgiving week, given that normally albums drop another 20% the 3rd week. I assume a major reason for the increase was black Friday sales and maybe the Macy’s parade.

That could be why some people are concerned about Cook’s drop for a black Friday week.

JPfan- “A Little Too Not Over You” is going for adds on Dec. 9th and we are hoping that it IS bigger than Crush. It will be interesting to see.

Archie got a nice little boost from his Thanksgiving Parade appearance. But heà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll need another big hit (bigger than Crush) to match Jordinà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s numbers.

As of now, he’s doing better than Jordin’s numbers. We’ll see if he can continue to stay steady. I don’t really care about “matching” or beating Jordin’s numbers week to week as long as he’s a steady seller. He’ll probably drop next week since he won’t have any big appearances. ALTNOY is actually playing more today–3 stations are spinning it, 1 regularly and 2 are testing it. Second singles don’t get as many pre-adds because of the short lead-time. “Mad” by Ne-Yo is a good example of this; it went for adds today and hasn’t gotten many, if any, adds before today (not in the top 100 on mediabase yet). ALTNOY goes for adds next week.

SashaB, I think ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s because higher sales were expected because it was Black Friday which, although not factually supported by the numbers, is considered the start of the busiest shopping weekend of the year.

I’m not sure about the biggest shopping weekend of the year, but second biggest is a good bet. Across the board most albums gained. Nickelback, Beyonce and Il Divo, all second-week albums, experienced lower than average drop-offs. Black Friday weekend may not have mattered as much this year than last year, but it still very much mattered.

Thanks for the Jordin numbers, Kirsten. This week will be key for both Davids as the goals will be to hold these great numbers for another week and not drop the usual 25% that most albums do in their third and fourth weeks. Then it’s down 25% and out for the vast majority of albums out there once Xmas is over.

I think normally a 62% drop wouldn’t be a big deal. That’s the typical percentage, it seems (except for rap albums which usually seem to have huge first week sales then a massive drop the 2nd week). But on a week when Black Friday should supplement at least some of that drop, it IS a bit concerning to me. Not OMG gloom and doom, but concerning. Especially when compared to the two “big” albums it competed with last week – Beyonce and Nickelback, who both had much smaller drops. That said, he should be past gold by Christmas, then we’ll see where he ends up when the sales start to stabilize.

I think a telling sign of the way the industry is going right now can be seen by looking at Kanye’s numbers. Yes, I know there was a huge Kanye vs. 50 Cent battle last year, releasing on the same day in the fall. But last year Kanye sold basically twice what he sold this year, and he released in like September, not Black Friday week.

SashaB, I think it’s because higher sales were expected because it was Black Friday

Yes. You’ll notice that the others who dropped with Cook didn’t have as big a percentage decrease this week. It’s reasonable to assume Black Friday sales played a part.

Kirsten offered some possible explanations in her post upthread that also seem reasonable to me.

Of course Cooks numbers are solid–great numbers from Cook–but that drop off is worth noting and watching, that’s all.

We’ll see what happens next week.

I here what everyone’s saying about the other albums on the list gaining or dropping less than average due to Black Friday, but I saw a bunch of these albums go on sale last weekend– Twilight, Killers, Now, T.I., definitely Beyonce. I read some article about how this past BF wasn’t that lucrative for stores because even with the increased traffic, customers were cherry-picking the deals (that were meant to lure them in to buy other stuff) rather than engaging in any sort of a holiday shopping spree. The fact that DC had a normal drop because he didn’t go on sale– YMMV but I kind of think that makes sense, and is no cause for concern. Nickelback and Il Divo– I’d venture to say those acts wouldn’t have suffered from normal drops normally, besides which Il Divo seems like the type of music to do well during holiday season. Btw, does anyone know for sure if Nickelback or Il Divo were on sale anywhere?

ETA: Though I’m not reading too much into this weeks drop, like others here, I’ll be watching closely next week. If he drops big next week, I’ll start cursing RCA for a new single

I think a telling sign of the way the industry is going right now can be seen by looking at Kanyeà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s numbers. Yes, I know there was a huge Kanye vs. 50 Cent battle last year, releasing on the same day in the fall. But last year Kanye sold basically twice what he sold this year, and he released in like September, not Black Friday week.

Keep that up and Kanye is going to come in here and throw a tantrum. It won’t be pretty.

LOL. In his defence, if you look at the stats I posted from BB last week, Rap has been hardest hit by the downturn in album sales. It was down 19.3% during the first 9 months of this year (compared to the industry average of 12.6% drop during the same period). Add in the fact that his first single isn’t doing as well as his single last year, it has only been a year since his last album (most albums are spread out at least 18 months if not longer) and (as you noted) the lack of a fanwar, and all those factors contribute. Still with all those added in, it wasn’t a good week for Kanye. Somewhere, right now, Kanye is probably stewing. But that maybe because his local Starbucks was out of those little Vanilla scones. You never know with Kanye what will make him mad.

Weà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll see what happens next week.

Yep. It’s the longterm trends we need to see. People may not remember, but Taylor only had a 40% drop in his second week (the week before Christmas) and sold Gold in two weeks. It didn’t prevent his album from falling like a stone the next week and soon off the charts. So, if first week sales do not tell the entire story, second week sales are just the second chapter of that story. We’ll need a few more weeks (and those after Christmas stats) to see where the stories really end.

I must say, I was a little surprised to see both Davids’ CDs higher priced at a couple of stores than Beyonce’s (regular version). I kind of blinked at it, wondering, gee, which one of these three is the established artist who threw down almost 500K in sales her first week? Ahh, the least expensive one.

Keep that up and Kanye is going to come in here and throw a tantrum. It wonà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t be pretty.

LOL. I’ll try to keep my voice down, then.

But yeah, no doubt that all the factors you mentioned contributed to his sales this year. It just surprised me, more than a little bit, to see those numbers for him.

As far as his single – personally, I love “Heartless” way more than “Love Lockdown”, but that’s just me.

I think ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s because higher sales were expected because it was Black Friday which, although not factually supported by the numbers, is considered the start of the busiest shopping weekend of the year.

I don’t know if Black Friday is considered prime time for album/CD sales. I would be looking for different things that are on sale–the bigger gifts. Now after taking stock as the holidays get closer–I look for stocking stuffers, gifts for co-workers or “panic” gifts–whatever–mainly smallers gifts that don’t hurt the budget as much and CDs would fit that bill. The rationale that Black Friday is CD buying time escapes me. I want to get the bigger gifts that are on sale out of the way first.

There is across the board gains or less-than-average losses for most albums on the HDD estimate chart this week. I don’t think we can assign an excuse as to why each and every one of those performed better than it otherwise should have just to discount Black Friday this year.

A couple questions if I may…is there any way to quantify to even come close to approximating pre orders? Don’t all the heavy hitters get itunes preorders? Is it Amazon the only place where DC has the lengthy pre oder? From my understanding they only have 6% share of the market so how it is possible those accounted for an extraordinary amount of sales?

Don’t radio playlists go into a holding pattern in late December? I notice there are no adds the last 2 weeks of the year. So how is it possible that DC could get a new single out and expect it to get added and played before Christmas and chart high enough to make an impact and push sales of the record? Is it ever a good idea for an artist to rush through releasing singles? My understanding is that there is a finite limit to the number of singles an artist can release. Of course if a record goes multi platinum or single sales go through the roof the label will push more but in the case of a typical record artists only get so many singles. Also what scenario is it s a good idea for a single to get pulled that still has a strong bullet on multiple formats?

I don’t think we can compare his drop of 62% and 108,000 with Beyonce’s 50% drop considering she had a much higher first week to begin with, and she still ended up with a smaller percentage drop. I don’t think we can know for sure if RCA is happy. The initial HDD blurb about pre-orders said they expected a “massive” debut. We don’t know if the numbers ended up being what they consider massive.

I’m not saying being near 400,000 in 2 weeks is bad, it’s not. But he’s an AI winner; people from AI, let alone the winner aren’t like the typical new artists and typical new artists sales aren’t expected of them either since they’re seen by so many millions of people on AI and DC came off AI with tons of hype and a huge debut single with TOML.. If he wasn’t near that total something would be wrong. I think Jordin is probably the only winner who didn’t have as much by their 2nd week.

Of course I also have concerns that it actually is a 62% drop and nothing more when all is said and done with SS numbers.

Black Friday is typically a very good week for CD sales. This year, it was a good week for record sales, but not as good as other years, so all things being equal, you would expect that CDs this week would get some bounce, but not as much as in prior years. How much bounce would depend, I would think, on a number of things, including demand for the record, whether it was on sale, placement at the stores and in store advertisements, etc. Assuming that the estimates are correct, DC had about a 61.2% drop relative to his first week—slightly better than the 1-3 records from the week before (which were at 64-65% drop), but not as much of an improvement as one would have hoped from Black Friday weekend.

What kind of cracks me up is this: DC had sales last week (including street violations) of 279,812, and (estimated) sales this week of 108,646, for a total of 388,458, and a drop of 61.2%. If, last week, he had had the same sales as Pink did her first week, which were (rounded) 180,000, we’d be ecstatic, because he would have had a ridiculously small drop of 29.7%. And yet his total sales would be 100K less than they are. While I understand the concept that, hey, does this mean that he’s going to keep slipping, the fact that we would be at all upset that DC sold 100K more last week is kind of amusing to me.

A couple questions if I mayà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦is there any way to quantify to even come close to approximating pre orders? Donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t all the heavy hitters get itunes preorders? Is it Amazon the only place where DC has the lengthy pre oder? From my understanding they only have 6% share of the market so how it is possible those accounted for an extraordinary amount of sales?

Quick answer: no. But RCA is the entity that boasted about Cook’s preorders being “huge.” What that means is pure speculation.

A lot of artists get iTunes preorders. Cook had a longer than normal preorder period of time (1 month). He also had a longer Amazon preorder period (5-6 months). But we don’t know exact figures and it’s likely we will never know.

I wanted to say my comment earlier was in *no way* a response to anything anyone posted on here. Hope no one took it that way & if they did I am sorry. Makes me feel bad if anyone thought I was attacking them. :sad_wp:

What kind of cracks me up is this: DC had sales last week (including street violations) of 279,812, and (estimated) sales this week of 108,646, for a total of 388,458, and a drop of 61.2%. If, last week, he had had the same sales as Pink did her first week, which were (rounded) 180,000, weà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢d be ecstatic, because he would have had a ridiculously small drop of 29.7%. And yet his total sales would be 100K less than they are. While I understand the concept that, hey, does this mean that heà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s going to keep slipping, the fact that we would be at all upset that DC sold 100K more last week than he did is kind of amusing to me.

You’re correct–if DC sold 180K first week and posted 108K second week it would be great. That would actually amount to a 40% drop, not a 29.7% drop. And it would mean that Black Friday boosted his sales by about 25-30% because the normal second week drop is about 65-70%. But that seems like a pretty normal Black Friday boost, as far as I can tell. Most of the gains are in the 20s-40s%, and if you account for other non-Black Friday factors, that seems about right. David A. had about a 30% boost (normal 3rd week drop is 20-25%, add an 8% increase). So we wouldn’t be so much amazed at the 108K as we would be pleased that Black Friday worked for this album.

Will the upcoming “Jingle Jams” help DA’s album sales? How many usually attend those anyway? I’m interested I guess in the DC/DA promotions in December and how they might affect their sales? (like how do those compare to Macy’s Parade or an Ellen DeGeneres (sp?) appearance in prompting sales?

You know what, though? The drop off is noted and raises some questions this week. All will be answered in the coming weeks, and hopefully if there is need to release a 2nd single sooner rather than later, it will happen.

But to say that David would have been better off selling 100K albums less on his opening week just so he’d have a smaller drop off now?

Seriously? That’s sort of backwards. Total sales is what counts in the end, over anything else.
Selling more = better.
Whether he’ll keep strong sales or not? no one can know that yet. Guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

Judy I have no idea how those will affect sales… but he’s definately a busy boy this month….

But to say that David would have been better off selling 100K albums less on his opening week just so heà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢d have a smaller drop off now?

I don’t know if you were responding to me, but I never said that. I was responding to folkfan’s hypothetical.

Ahh, I mistyped. I meant to put down 39.7%. And, yes, while I understand the reasoning that higher drop = bad, the concept that lower totals would be causing fewer concerns is a bit odd to me, to say the least.

Ah, well, ss Jolene says, all will become clearer in the weeks ahead

how is it possible that DC could get a new single out and expect it to get added and played before Christmas and chart high enough to make an impact and push sales of the record?

I think that it is now too late to release a new single this year. I guess if they speed dropped it, but that generally doesn’t set the ground work up very well. I think they have to hold on Light On for now. I think the earliest we’ll see a new single now is mid-January just because everybody will soon be on vacation.

Is it ever a good idea for an artist to rush through releasing singles?

A lot of big artists do it. It’s becoming a bit of a trend right now and seems to be working for artists like Beyonce, Taylor Swift and TI. Plus, if a single isn’t performing, it’s often a good idea to switch to a new single. It’s just part of the business. Anybody remember that horrible yodeling song that Gwen Stefani put out? Yep, they switched that one pretty fast. Beyonce’s last album had two singles that were quickly replaced before finding the big hit. The label makes their best guess, but sometimes things just don’t work out. Best not to be too sentimental about it.

My understanding is that there is a finite limit to the number of singles an artist can release.

There is no limit. They can release all the songs if they want. The label is likely to stop funding those releases if sales drop too much. Daughtry has released a lot of singles from his album because his album kept selling. Meanwhile, Kelly’s last album really only had one single (“Never Again”). Steady sales in reasonable amounts (not those 100 a week that Ken reports), will likely mean more singles. Falling out of the Top 200 probably means no more singles regardless of how many have already been released.

Did Jordin have the jingle jam events last yearr to boost her sales?

Did Jordin have the jingle jam events last yearr to boost her sales?

As per the numbers Kirsten posted earlier, she did boost her sales the closer Christmas got. But who knows how much of that was holiday buying and how much was Jingle Jamming.

It’s interesting how people view and interpret sales, numbers, and rankings. This is my first year following AI,so I don’t have those AI benchmarks or expectations. It’s been fun tracking the Davids’ nascent and (hopefully) successful careers. Given the continuing decline in sales(thanks for all the informative links) in the music industry over the past few years, I guess I’m more interested in goal posts that a measurable by today’s standards of success. So for two debut artists, I’d say that this is a great start.You’re right, MJ, we should wait to see what the coming weeks and months bring.

lol jingle jamming… I like that term..

Yes, the bottom line is we probably won’t know anything about how either album fairs in the long run until after the holidays are over (and after the after-holiday buying slump is over too).

lol jingle jammingà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ I like that term..

LOL.

Will the upcoming à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Jingle Jamsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  help DAà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s album sales? How many usually attend those anyway? Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m interested I guess in the DC/DA promotions in December and how they might affect their sales?

“Jingle Jams” are a form of payola. The radio stations don’t typically pay artists to perform there, but they do sometimes make money by selling the tickets. Mostly, it’s a form of promotion for the radio station. They run contests to give away tickets and look like important radio stations by being able to host a concert with high profile names.

Having low profiles names at their concerts isn’t going to help them promote their station. So, it is in the stations best interest to play the artist that performs at their concert. At the same time, an artist isn’t going to get invited to the concert unless they already are high profile and popular with their desired demographic. Just as artists that do not appeal to the station’s demographic are not likely to get played no matter what form of payola is offered. If listeners are turned off by the playlist, they’ll easily find another station. So, payola exists in it’s altered form, but payola isn’t enough to make a song a hit. You won’t get invited to perform at the concert just by promising to do it for free (or there would be thousands of artists on the bill). You have to be a big enough star for the target demographic to get the invite.

So, what the “Jingle Jams” may do is make it more likely that David’s new single will be played. Plus, there will be all those people in the audience (some of those radio station sponsored events can be quite large). Somebody may come primarily to see Pink or Chris Brown or Rihanna and leave liking one of the other artists on the bill. It doesn’t hurt to be associated with big names.

When I first heard of them (this year), I thought Jingle Jams were just performances filled with holiday music and not with any artist’s current music that is out. You know, like a Christmas Special. Then again, I’m kinda older and out of the loop, lol. However, based on what is performed and how many attend, I suppose it could be a factor.

ETA: I see what you’re saying about single promotion Kirsten, but would it affect albums sales for DA in any way?

I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t think we can compare his drop of 62% and 108,000 with Beyonceà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s 50% drop considering she had a much higher first week to begin with, and she still ended up with a smaller percentage drop.

I don’t think we can directly compare DC with Beyonce for many reasons– here are 3: 1) she’s F-ing Beyonce, 2) her album went on sale when DC’s didn’t and 3) she’s F-ing Beyonce .

There is across the board gains or less-than-average losses for most albums on the HDD estimate chart this week. I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t think we can assign an excuse as to why each and every one of those performed better than it otherwise should have just to discount Black Friday this year.

Oh, but I can assign some broad “excuses” to cover the bases, haha. First off, I don’t think it’s fair to compare DC’s drop to those “across-the-board gains”, since he was released the week before. We can speculate but will never know what his gains/losses could’ve been for Black Friday week had he been released on 11/11 and dropped 60ish% last week. So that comparison is a tad meaningless, IMO.

Moving onto the “less-than-average” losses, as I said above, Beyonce has her Beyonce-ness going for her, and she also went on sale. As for Nickelback and Il Divo, I’m somehow not surprised to see them with good 2nd week stats. Does anyone know how their 2nd week drops have been in the past?

I was responding to folkfanà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s hypothetical.

OK, so hypothetically?

Youà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re correctà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’if DC sold 180K first week and posted 108K second week it would be great.

Not really.
1. It wouldn’t be great in itself, Because at 180K, his first week sales would have been considered a huge disappointment, and first week sales is what gets reported over and over again.
2. It wouldn’t be great compared to Archie, because the winner is expected to sell more than the runner-up, as you yourself have said repeatedly.
3. It certainly wouldn’t be great compared to reality, since it’d mean 100K less for total sales over 2 weeks, and no chance of Gold before Christmas.

But I guess in the hypothetical scenario all of these really-not-so-great-things are countered by getting a boost from Black Friday? Sorry to say I just don’t see it.

The drop off in and of itself won’t matter one bit, it only matters if one’s trying to use it to predict the future. If the album continues to drop, there will be real cause for concern. Right now? I’m celebrating wonderful sales for the first 2 weeks.

My guess is that LO is strong enough to get DC and DCTR into the New Year with at least gold numbers, if not a bit higher, in time for a new single to carry the football.

I was sort of thinking the same thing. Also, sports analogies FTW, always. This is the first time I’ve really followed numbers so closely post Idol and I’m kind of not really digging it, no offense meant towards Kirstin. I’m allergic to numbers in life, in general. So typically I observe buzz and general public perception, and I think it’s usually led me to proper prognostications. In other words, did Taylor’s buzz dry up because his album sales plummeted, or did his album sales plummet because his buzz dried up? A more numbers oriented person would go with door #1, but as a very peripheral, more visceral, less cerebral observer of season 5 I lean towards door #2. (Anything I heard about Taylor via radio DJs and the like, was not very positive, and favored Daughtry, even very early on after Taylor’s win.) Either way, we eventually come to the same conclusion. That said, I think the slow growing and still chugging uphill LO plus the high charting album that was hanging out with the likes of Beyonce and Nickleback plus the smattering of A list public sightings is earning enough buzz now to carry Cook through the holidays, after which time I hope the label plans on releasing another single which gets big exposure via a live performance on AI. Live Cook is always good promo, BF was made for TV. I dunno, I suppose I figure if radio was slow to warm up to LO but eventually did, and is just recently really starting to embrace it, the public is naturally going to follow the same pattern, so I don’t get the something is off with the sales get the next single out quick feeling.

In considering the non-AI-fanbase, LO reminds me of M5′s Harder to Breath. Slow grower, modest hit, not necessarily representative of the album as a whole per se. Peaked pretty close to 20 give or take on the charts, which is respectable, but isn’t going to sell a crapload of albums all by it’s lonesome. But what it did was garner enough attention to prime the public for the big hit This Love which led to the massive hit She Will Be Loved. People in general love a good ballad even more than they love a catchy pop rock tune which they love more than an interesting rock song with panting effects. (Unless you are Britney, in which case panting effects are a big selling point.) And when you put all three songs together, people want to buy that album. If that makes sense. The strength of Cook’s album, IMO, is in the number of potential singles, and the nice variety of choices. Declaration, for example, could potentially be the upbeat catchy This Love and I dunno, Avalanche could be the SWBL. They have falsetto in common anyway. (Yeah, I’ve suddenly warmed up to Avalanche a whole lot, btw.) So as much as I would love to see Cook sell platinum superfast to make his post AI career success a fait accompli, I won’t start wringing my hands until I know what the label’s intentions are as far as releasing more singles. I think the second single is going to be more important to Cook than the first, and the third single is the one that could make or break the album. Hypothetically. If RCA is invested enough to have a long term plan.

ETA: I see what youà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re saying about single promotion Kirsten, but would it affect albums sales for DA in any way?

If the single gets played, it improves the chances that somebody might buy the album. If they didn’t like Crush, they may like the new single. If they liked “Crush” well enough, but not enough to buy the album, liking two songs on the album might be enough them to convince them to buy the album. Maybe three will be the magic number.

Singles are a form of promotion for the album (and they also sell themselves. Sell 10 singles and it counts as an album to the bean counters. They call them TEAs. Track-equivalent albums). If a single isn’t being played, it’s not going to help promote the album very much.

Actually, I am a little bit confused with some of the logic here.

According to soundscene,

(normal 3rd week drop is 20-25%,

But the NOW album had an increase of 22%. Taylor Swift had an increase of 23%. Both those CDs were released the same time as Archie’s CD, were they not? So this is their 3rd week of sales? So why aren’t people as equally concerned that Archie didn’t get a bigger bump, he only got 8%? I am not trying to downplay in any way Archie’s numbers, I am just trying to put this in perspective and say it seems like the same logic that people are trying to apply to Cook’s numbers would also apply to Archie’s, but Archie’s fans seem happy, Cook’s do not. They are saying Cook should have gotten a bigger bump because it was BF and didn’t compare to Beyonce and Nickelback, but then it seems like Archie should have gotten a bigger bump also if you compare it to the NOW CD and Taylor. Is this not correct?

Because Tayor is Tayor…plain and simple. lol lol Now cd’s alot of parents seem to snatch up for stocking stuffers, if they dont exactly know what their kids like.

So Taylor SWift had an increase of 23% and Now had and increase of 22%, but Archie had an increase of only 8%. That is interesting. Something to look at and think about.

Because Tayor is Tayor

It could equally be said that Beyonce is Beyonce…or as someone posted above… she is f****ing Beyonce! LOL

On a completely different note, I don’t think that this thread needs to worry about Kanye West coming after us, as was suggested earlier. He will be too busy going after Stephen Colbert, who has started a campaign called Operation Humble Kanye, which involves catapulting Colbert’s Xmas album past Kanye on itunes by having the entire Colbert Nation purchase the Xmas album tomorrow at 5 pm EST.

Archie def had a small bump compared to many others. But the biggest sales bumps seemed to go to artists that were featured on the AMAs or were Xmas related. Now is one of those anthology albums that always does great the week of Black Friday. And Taylor looks to have the biggest album of the year.

Both Archie and Cook(especially) have had great TV promo. Once that settles down, their albums will follow a more “normal” pattern.

oh man folkfan!! LOL that ought to be interesting….
———-

“It could equally be said that Beyonce is Beyonceà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦or as someone posted aboveà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ she is f****ing Beyonce! LOL”

yeah lol Those chics are monsters… LOL

well if you go by a standard 25% drop for third week being 8% is roughly 30% increase in sales this week for archie. which is fine for BF.

But the NOW album had an increase of 22%. Taylor Swift had an increase of 23%. Both those CDs were released the same time as Archieà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s CD, were they not? So this is their 3rd week of sales? So why arenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t people as equally concerned that Archie didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t get a bigger bump, he only got 8%?

I would guess for the following reasons:
1) T-Pain and Enya also released the same week and he saw a 16% and 18% decline in sales this week respectively. One can feel a little bit better about your numbers when there is somebody else who did worse than you.

2) Archie has an increase in sales. It’s always easier to be happy when there is an increase in sales. That’s a trend in the right direction. A trend that likely won’t last past this week, but fans don’t need to worry about that today.

3) Third week falls are generally about 25% and he saw an increase in sales. It’s always easier to be happy when one is beating the general trend.

4) Taylor Swift is a “monster”. Plus, she had a high profile performance of her new single on the AMAs to start of the week. Poor Archie just got to lip-synch his old single for about 30 seconds during a parade sandwiched in between Rick Astley and a bagpipe band from East Nebraska. Add in the fact that her album was on super sale and it’s easy for the average fan to call her an exception to the rule.

5) Archie outsold not only Miley, but also the Jonas Brothers. Taking down the competition!

LOL. I think there are a few Cook fans who are a little tiny, itt-bitty, bit concerned (not scared, just noting the numbers). Most people are saying, let’s watch and wait. Nobody is fitting Cook’s career for a coffin.

On a completely different note, I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t think that this thread needs to worry about Kanye West coming after us, as was suggested earlier. He will be too busy going after Stephen Colbert, who has started a campaign called Operation Humble Kanye, which involves catapulting Colbertà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s Xmas album past Kanye on itunes by having the entire Colbert Nation purchase the Xmas album tomorrow at 5 pm EST.

I think that Kanye has enough pent up indignation to rant at all of us. Good luck to Colbert. Fanwars can fuel the sales.

“Kirsten

Dec 2nd, 2008 at 11:52 pm ”

Marry me.

Poor Archie just got to lip-synch his old single for about 30 seconds during a parade sandwiched in between Rick Astley…

Yeah, about that… I can’t believe they Rickrolled the freaking Thanksgiving Day Parade! LOL! That was the funniest thing I ever saw. I don’t know who those weird puppets were but they are now officially cooler than the Yo Gabba Gabba characters, and some of the Yo Gabba Gabba characters are shaped like sex toys. Weird Puppet Guys FTW!!!!!

Back OT: So the general consensus is… sit and wait. Sounds good to me.

Evidently Rick was on the Fosters Imaginary Friends float… Davids favorite float. I STILL cant believe they rick rolled the parade… lol lol

Yah wait and see is a good plan.

Both JoBros and Miley have a 60%plus increase, just saying.

I canà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t believe they Rickrolled the freaking Thanksgiving Day Parade! LOL! That was the funniest thing I ever saw.

That was hilarious. And it’s great the Rick Astley has a sense of humour about the entire thing. He was having a blast (even if his lip synching needs a bit of work).

Er. Numbers. Give it up for Yo-Yo Ma!
31 47 YO-YO MA SONY CLASSICAL 26,217 0%
SONGS OF JOY & PEACE

I think Cook will be gold by end of year and Archie too or somewhere near gold, fingers crossed, but yeah im will sit and wait as well.

It could equally be said that Beyonce is Beyonceà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦or as someone posted aboveà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ she is f****ing Beyonce! LOL

Yes, that was me! Haha, I like being quoted.

well if you go by a standard 25% drop for third week being 8% is roughly 30% increase in sales this week for archie. which is fine for BF.

Huh? I don’t get this math.

For the record, I think both Archie DC did great this week .

If you go through the Top 50 almost everyone featured on the AMAs got a very nice sales bump. Of course the bigger the sales bump the better. Considering Cook was heavily featured on the pre show, he was one of the few who didn’t get much of a boost. But in the end, who can really complain when they sell over 100K albums their second week. It’s still a great number

Both JoBros and Miley have a 60%plus increase, just saying.

T’was a joke. I just needed 5 points. Didn’t mean to start a fan war between the Archies and Disney fans. Don’t report us to Mickey! We already got Kanye on our a$$

Kirsten

Wow, I was going to just say that Archie got a bump in sales and the fans loved it. The positive always brings on positive reactions. Increase in sales shows a trend for higher demand. You gotta be happy with that.

Mickey is gonna come after you kirsten! lol Better watch out! LOL LOL

Kirsten, I appreciate you! I think fans of both David’s are lucky because they have albums and are selling. Fans of the other idols aren’t getting to experience the euphoria of that.. yet. I hope we have many more weeks of nitpicking sales bumps and percentage points!

Mickey is gonna come after you kirsten! lol Better watch out! LOL LOL

I know! He’s a Teamster! Those guys can get grumpy when you mess with their buddies. I should have known there might be a Miley/Jonas fan amongst us who could report me.

Kirsten:

LOL. I think there are a few Cook fans who are a little tiny, itt-bitty, bit concerned (not scared, just noting the numbers). Most people are saying, letà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s watch and wait. Nobody is fitting Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s career for a coffin.

When is the Cook Nation not angsty? Angst happens more in the Cook base of fans than I would even think possible. Even when you have a situation where DCTR’s first week outsold the long-awaited GnR CD’s first week (which presumably got a bump from Black Friday), yeah, there are Cook fans still angsting.

That said, I read a lot of the comments above as saying, hey, if you’re going to compare DC’s performance this week to the big gun who debuted his week, compare DA’s performance to the big gun who debuted his week.

Something to look at and think about.

I am not going to think about it for more than a few seconds. I am as happy as a clam and just enjoying the ride.

Man, I canà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t imagine thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s all GnR would sell. That album has been pimped sky-high and the streaming rates were insane. Unless everyone who listened hated it and busted out their Appetite/Use Your Illusion 1/2 from the collection (me). I think it has to be coming in waves.

I can imagine it. Axl is the only original member left and he’s pretty much considered a joke. I’m a bit shocked it sold as well as it did.

That said, I read a lot of the comments above as saying, hey, if youà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re going to compare DCà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s performance this week to the big gun who debuted his week, compare DAà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s performance to the big gun who debuted his week.

Yes FolkFan, thanks, that is exactly what I was trying to say. I was just trying to apply the same logic to both sides, which to me, seemed reasonable and still does.

When is the Cook Nation not angsty? Angst happens more in the Cook base of fans than I would even think possible. Even when you have a situation where DCTRà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s first week outsold the long-awaited GnR CDà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s first week (which presumably got a bump from Black Friday), yeah, there are Cook fans still angsting.

I don’t see much angsting. In fact anytime I look at DCO it’s overflowing with positivity while the naysayers or anyone who isn’t 100% is called a hater. And I think there’s a huge difference between ‘angsting’ and being simply concerned. There’s nothing wrong with being concerned, especially those of us who have been down this road with various Idols and know sales can be a bumpy road and things are even more uncertain now given the huge slump sales are in. In the past if you don’t sell a million, you get dropped. So yes some of us may express concern now and then. When RCA looks at the $bottom line$ they aren’t going to care whether or not he beat GnR, they’ll care about actual numbers and if they’re making or losing money.

Taylor is even killing Bey in sales…. lol

Besides Taylor and David(archie) both had the same second week drop % lol

But she’s still a monster thats out-doing bey..

When RCA looks at the $bottom line$ they arenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t going to care whether or not he beat GnR, theyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll care about actual numbers and if theyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re making or losing money.

This is exactly what was pointed out last night about both David’s by soundscene and I agree.

In my opinion there is really nothing to be concerned about. Cook had a lot of Idol sales the first week and his drop of 62% reflected that. That is all it is. He sold 108,000 his second week which is very good. I for one am not going to pick the most negative thing out of the preliminary report and worry about it. I am thrilled at how David Cook is doing. By and large Cook fans are not worried about this album. From what I have read the majority are thrilled at how he is doing. Most Cook fans just want him to keep making music. That is the point isn’t it? We want these guys to succeed so we can continue to listen to them. It is about the music. The record is good. The tewer is coming. All is good.

Taylor is even killing Bey in salesà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦. lol

“killing”? Beyonce in two weeks has sold around 750K. Taylor in three weeks around 1 miliion. Taylor has one more week of sales than Beyonce.

I guess I would say that they are both monsters.

à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“killingà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ? Beyonce in two weeks has sold around 750K. Taylor in three weeks around 1 miliion. Taylor has one more week of sales than Beyonce.

I guess I would say that they are both monsters.

Yeah but Taylor sold more in her 3rd week than Beyonce in her 2nd week. I wouldn’t say “killing” per se, but she’s definitely outselling Beyonce.

Maybe Killing is a little hard… trouncing on maybe lol lol Taylor also sold more in her first week then beys first week.

Most Cook fans just want him to keep making music. That is the point isnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t it? We want these guys to succeed so we can continue to listen to them. It is about the music. The record is good. The tewer is coming. All is good.

Word to the nth power. I already love the record, so that flavor of anxiety is over. Now I want to know if RCA plans to keep Cook and the boys around to do a second one. ANd what kind of tewer is looming on the horizon. If all these numbers give me a clue to that end, great, I *heart* you numbers. If not, well, then screw you, numbers, and your confusing ambiguity that is open to a bazillion different interpretations.

The Chinese Democracy thing is interesting to me only because Rolling Stone gave it a 4 star tonguebath, and I wanted to like it a lot more than I did being a fan of the old skool GnR. Makes me wonder about the power of reviews, and if other people felt the same way.

RS gave the JoBro a 4 star rating(im pretty sure)… I take reviews with a grain of salt….

Whew, and now the big guns are coming out. LOL. My third string quarterbacking arm is getting tired, so I’m going to have myself a “Happy Christmas” and enjoy myself a Jingle bell jammin’ rockin’ week next week in Columbus with David Cook(thanks for heads up a while back cheese if you read ths)!! I hope the Staind fans see what a great live show DC gives!

I like the looks of the cheerleading from the sidelines.

Go DC!
Go DA!

But that’s just me, for now, because I can’t put my DC angsting away for long. LOL!

When RCA looks at the $bottom line$ they arenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t going to care whether or not he beat GnR, theyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll care about actual numbers and if theyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re making or losing money.

Well, it seems to me that the label has to have some way to decide what the expectations for an artists sales should be within a given period of time. How long would it take for the average pop album to go gold, for example? How long for the average debut artist? If historical averages are now useless because of the steep overall decline in sales, then comparing the artist to other recent and current album sales in the same genre would seem to make the most sense. That’s how it’s done in real estate, where the market and prices fluctuate constantly. In which case, selling more than a long anticipated album like Chinese Democracy would most certainly be taken into account. Going gold in 4 weeks would be better than going gold in 6 months. Percentages don’t really matter in the long run either. If the expectation is that an album needs to have sold 500,000 in 3 months in order to make it worth the continued $$ it costs to promote the album and to make a 2nd album, the label won’t care about sales percentage changes from week to week. They’ll care about raw numbers. Almost 400,000 in 2 weeks has got to look pretty good for a debut artist this year.

I’ve also been wondering about the history of Idol winners and runner-ups getting to make 2nd albums on their original label. Is Clay the only runner-up to get a 2nd album? Is Taylor the only winner that was dropped before a 2nd album?

Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve also been wondering about the history of Idol winners and runner-ups getting to make 2nd albums on their original label. Is Clay the only runner-up to get a 2nd album? Is Taylor the only winner that was dropped before a 2nd album?

Yes and Yes.

Kellie Pickler and Josh Gracin also made second albums for their original labels, but they were not runner-ups. Daughtry is obviously in the process of making his second album for his original label as well. Jordin has not yet made her second album, but I think that it is likely that she will.

I actually think I somehow got more invested than it’s being just about the music and their ability to continue to make/record music. I came to care about them as individuals (Archuleta and Cook) and want their personal success in this business. It’s sorta like watching your brother (or any other relative or friend for that matter) on a journey to becoming a “star”. I am enjoying watching their growth and development. It seems I care if they are happy with themselves and their work, etc. I guess this happens because AI gets into their back story and we learn a lot about them. And then we read MJ’s or DCO or FOD and learn more. You know, usually, I just stumble on a new artist and have no idea where they came from or know anything about their personal life and don’t even care. So, the idols are sort of their own nation in a way, lol. I’m a fan of many artists, but not to this extent, which is interesting to me how that happens.

Wow. So 83.3% of winners get to make a 2nd album, and 83.3% of runner-ups don’t. (If my math is correct.) That lessens my angst for David Cook a lot, since the odds are very much in favor of him at least getting that far.I hope the label isn’t upset that David Archuleta sold so much less than Clay during his 1st few weeks.

That makes sense to me, CathyMK. As I think that everyone on every side of this, including the ones who say that they’re neutral, it really doesn’t make much sense to compare the two Davids, given the different genres, labels, etc. So, ultimately, the label will be looking at its own considerations, and likely focusing on comparators within genre, other debut artists, etc. My guess is that both Davids look good as debut artists within their genres.

Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve also been wondering about the history of Idol winners and runner-ups getting to make 2nd albums on their original label. Is Clay the only runner-up to get a 2nd album? Is Taylor the only winner that was dropped before a 2nd album?

I’d never thought of it that way, but you know, I think that’s right.

Oh lo! Maybe I shouldn’t ever comment on album sales at all. lol. But yeah, what Kirsten says. Whatever Kirsten says I agree with. There ya go.

Since this was for me:

1. It wouldnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t be great in itself, Because at 180K, his first week sales would have been considered a huge disappointment, and first week sales is what gets reported over and over again.

180K first week is never a disappointment for a debut artist. Or really any pop artist. I don’t see how it would have been a huge disappointment for Cook either. But smile, he got 280K.

2. It wouldnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t be great compared to Archie, because the winner is expected to sell more than the runner-up, as you yourself have said repeatedly.

I think you might have me confused with somebody else. I’ve never said that.

3. It certainly wouldnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t be great compared to reality, since ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢d mean 100K less for total sales over 2 weeks, and no chance of Gold before Christmas.

Okee dokee.

The drop off in and of itself wonà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t matter one bit, it only matters if oneà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s trying to use it to predict the future. If the album continues to drop, there will be real cause for concern. Right now? Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m celebrating wonderful sales for the first 2 weeks.

I’m happy you’re happy.

RS gave the JoBro a 4 star rating(im pretty sure)à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ I take reviews with a grain of saltà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦.

Hey, I like their new album. :smile_wp:

Well, late to the party, but it reads like everybody is happy, and with documented reason to be!
Since I’m so very bad at angst, and it’s coming up on the Holidays anyway, I’m happy too.

There’s really only two reasonable things the Davids have in common, IMO…so I’m wishing both of the left handed Sagittarians gold…if not for their birthdays this month, then for Christmas, because it would make a lovely gift.

And again we have obituaries being written for “Light On”. LO has gained approximately 8M in AI in the past two weeks for a total of nearly 20M. To put that in perspective, in the seven weeks prior to that since its release, it struggled below 12M. Now, I’m no “expert”, but it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me to talk about pulling the plug on a song just when it’s beginning to take off.

Edit:

Cooler heads prevail….

I think Jive is just fine with Archie’s sales thus far. I am wondering if RCA is upset with Cook’s sales since they are so much lower than Aiken’s sales were. I mean Aiken was only runner-up and all.

Are you talking about Clay’s sales from 2003? When he sold huge? Surely you can’t mean Clay’s current sales where he’s struggled to sell 150,000 in 6 months? Somehow I doubt RCA is sitting around comparing two weeks of sales from any current artist to someone from five years ago.

I am wondering if RCA is upset with Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s sales since they are so much lower than Aikenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s sales were. I mean Aiken was only runner-up and all.

Be careful luckee55, you could easily substitute Cook’s name with Carrie , Kelly or Archie in that same sentence (and of course change the record label).

it really doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t make much sense to compare the two Davids, given the different genres, labels, etc.

Amen sister. And I’ll go a step further than that. Nobody can “win” the argument. Because while number themselves are objective facts, they mean nothing without context. And you can give whatever context you want to numbers.

Objective Fact: TOML is platinum appox 6 months after release. Crush is platinum approx 3 months after release
Archie spin: Well lookie there, Crush went platinum faster. Archie wins!
Cook Spin: Cook has the longest charting, highest selling coronation single ever! Cook wins!

Objective fact: DA’s record sales total about 316K after 3 weeks, Cook’s total 387K after 2
Archie spin: Well lookie there! Archie is only 71K behind Cook! We’re gonna catch him! And he had an increase in sales this week while Cook lagged behind!
Cook Spin: Cook is 71k ahead of Archie after only 2 week of sales! Cook is killing him!

You know what I say? If you really want to compare Idols, don’t just compare to the ones that make your boy look good. The cold hard truth here? (this is where both sides hate me – lol) Ain’t neither of these guys Carrie or Daughtry. Those two came in and immediately dominated their genres. I don’t see Miley Cyrus and the Jonas Brothers quaking in their boots. And Nickleback is not looking over their shoulder. Daughtry is not curled up in the corner of his room in a ball of angst. lol. They are both doing well, but no one is a Superstar yet. Both second singles could flop. Or, both could go on to have decent/good record sales – ala Kelly Clarkson’s debut (Yay!). And Rueben Studdard’s (Uh-oh).

This is why you don’t compare Idols. No amount of passive aggressive fanwaring is going to change the fact that you can spin things however you want, and that the ultimate truth will be known in time. A lot of time. 2-3 weeks in will tell you nothing. And for every round you “win” in the comparison game, you will lose another tomorrow. Speculation is fun, but trying to “win” the competition over and over again just generates angst, resentment and anger, and keeps you from enjoying the success your idol does have. In my opinion anyway.