Monday Morning Mediabase Update – 08/17/08

I’ve been paying attention to the number of radio stations that play TOML (because I’m officially addicted to charts, apparently!), and it looks to me as if on AC, for instance, it has gone about as far as it can go in terms of how many stations play it. They’re almost all on board now. The #1 song has captured only one station more than TOML. The song could get a couple million more in audience, but it’s way in the top tier of that category, too. So if it’s going to stay on top for awhile, it looks to me as if now it all comes down to a.) not dropping stations or spins; and b.)continuing to inch upward while (maybe) the top two songs inch down. That’s the trend right now anyway.

http://www.mediabase.com/mmrweb/insideradio/charts.asp?format=4&showyear=y&dpt=n

Eta: On HotAC it looks as if there is still the potential for a pick up of a few stations, and for about 10 million additional gains in audience. It’s curious to me when a few stations don’t play an otherwise Top 10 song, whether it’s TOML or any other song. I wonder what determines their choice.

Kirsten, I have a question: I know that songs are eventually taken off the charts in Top 40 format, but is that true of AC and HotAC, too? Do they also have “recurrents”?

Thanks for that link spritely. Do you have a pop chart I could look at?

ealbino, I’ve been prowling around Pulse to find these and I can’t seem to locate one for pop. Under that category they have other cool stuff, like which songs are due to go “off” and when, and what songs are going to be added soon, but if they have a link to today’s Mediabase Chart for pop, I can find it.

ETA: http://pulsemusic.proboards48.com/index.cgi?board=pop

I wonder what’s up with AllAccess today. They haven’t updated all morning.

Spritely, Could you explain what a “bullet” in the format means?
Thanks so much!

Autumn, I am so not the expert here!, but I believe that a bullet means the song is on the move up. We need Kirsten. Sometimes she (or it might be LadyMadonna)describes a song as having “the strongest bullet,” and I believe that means it is moving upward faster than the other songs.

Kirsten, I have a question: I know that songs are eventually taken off the charts in Top 40 format, but is that true of AC and HotAC, too? Do they also have à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“recurrentsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ?

Yes. Each chart has their rules for re-currents. Country seems to have the harshest rules because those songs drop off the chart fast. Songs typically go to re-currents after a set period of time (e.g. on the AC chart for two years) or if they go above a certain value and drop below it (e.g. going below top 20). Recurrent songs are still monitored, but they are ineligble to chart. This is meant to give new songs a better chance to chart.

Autumn, I am so not the expert here!, but I believe that a bullet means the song is on the move up.

Yes. It means that according to the chart criteria, the song’s stats are improving. For instance, on the Top 40 chart, the criteria is spins. So, a song with a bullet is increasing spins over the previous week. If the song has the same number of spins or fewer, then it has no bullet. Sometimes, a song can have a bullet and move down the rankings (if other songs pass it by) or a song can have no bullet and actually move up the chart (due to other songs going to re-current or dropping faster – this is called “falling up the chart”).

Looks like TOML might get another small bump this week on Billboard. All week it has been around #20 on the iTunes songs chart, which is the highest it’s been since the time it was released. Along with the steady rise in airplay, the Magic Rainbow is still going strong.

I expect TOML to hit 800,000 next week (it needs 50,000 to get there, so it’ll take another week at least, but we’ll see how well it does this week first).

Also, I think Archie will get #1 on Billboard this week.

Also, I think Archie will get #1 on Billboard this week.

Not likely. But this will likely be the highest debut coming from a post-idol single from any idol. David should feel proud. He is the best.

Thanks anyway spritely. I used to have the link to HOT AC and POP or TOP 40 whateva they call it but I can’t find it.

and Jolene.. do you really think Archie sold enough to get #1 on Billboard? Even with all of Rhianna’s spins? Wouldn’t he have to sell over 200,000 to get it?

Thanks, Kirsten.

this is called à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“falling up the chartà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ).

I believe this is one reason why TOML moved up on Top 40 today–because three songs went recurrent. Several more are scheduled to go recurrent over the next few weeks, and then there will be a gap of no movement in that regard for a few weeks. As for what songs will push up from the bottom, there’s no telling!

It’ll be interesting to see what happens with TOML this week as Reggie Hamm’s story starts getting national publicity. I’d be surprised if that didn’t produce a bump. (RH is the songwriter.)

Thanks for the fun, inside info.

The moniker “spins” is antiquated (from vinyl 45 days), since nothing really spins anymore, lol. What would you replace it with? Lasers?

Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll be interesting to see what happens with TOML this week as Reggie Hammà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s story starts getting national publicity.

Where is Reggie’s story expected to get publicity? I haven’t heard anything about this yet.
And I still don’t know what’s up with the TOML surge in sales this week. I don’t think it’s still the Olympics bump, but I don’t know what it is.

and Jolene.. do you really think Archie sold enough to get #1 on Billboard? Even with all of Rhiannaà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s spins? Wouldnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t he have to sell over 200,000 to get it?

Hasn’t he been #1 on iTunes since the day of his release? Sounds like good sales to me.

All Access has finally updated their charts to show this morning’s numbers.

Reggie posted a blog saying he’s got interviews with major media outlets this week,I know yesterday Fox was mentioned.

And I still donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t know whatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s up with the TOML surge in sales this week. I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t think ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s still the Olympics bump, but I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t know what it is.

I don’t think it’s the Olympics either because even after it was used that 2nd time it gained, but then started to drop a bit again, then out of nowhere it shot back up to 17. If anything having it displayed prominently on iTunes under “What’s Hot” I guess could have contributed to the bump.

The moniker à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“spinsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  is antiquated (from vinyl 45 days), since nothing really spins anymore, lol.

Funny! I hadn’t even thought of that, but you’re right.

Jolene, here’s a link to the new post at Reggie Hamm’s blog, where he says a bit about media. The first reference I saw was in a response he made on his original post, and in that one he mentioned doing a FOX-TV interview today, and it seems that now there are more.

http://blog.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=blog.view&friendID=54139274&blogID=425168764

My own theory about why TOML got that latest bump has to do with the Olympics, plus the burst of chat about Reggie Hamm’s story, plus DA’s new song prompting a few sales for DC, plus the song getting featured on the front page of iTunes?

edited to correct for Trina’s info about iTunes.

iTunes Top 100 Songs
iTunes Store: Today’s Top 100 Songs

1. Crush – David Archuleta

2. Disturbia – Rihanna

3. Change – Taylor Swift

4. Paper Planes – M.I.A.

5. Dreamer – Chris Brown

http://www.windpowersports.com/music/top-songs.php

Yes..Jolene..that’s 5 days straight…but I hope it translates into big numbers because sometimes the No. 5 song could have 50,000 downloads and No. 1 could have 80,000 and I am really hoping it’s in the triple digits.

The airplay between Distrubia and Crush is 4 to 1. That’s why his sales is not likely to make up the gap there.

I HIGHLY doubt the numbers below Crush are below triple digits. Disturbia alone the last couple of weeks has been in the 100,000 range. I think last week that sold near 150k.

Crush is also #8 on Canada Top 10, WTG Archie! I’m sure there is a direct link to the chart somewhere but I wasn’t able to find it.

The airplay between Distrubia and Crush is 4 to 1. Thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s why his sales is not likely to make up the gap there.

Disturbia alone the last couple of weeks has been in the 100,000 range. I think last week that sold near 150k.

So, is it 50-50 between sales and airplay on Billboard? How much more than Disturbia would Crush have to sell to make up for the discrepancy in airplay? Sounds like if it’s not #1, it’s #2, which is also great. I don’t think Archie or his fans have anything to worry about.

Yeah I think Disturbia had close to 150k sales last week, and it had been gaining in sales each week for a few weeks…

It looks like it is possible for Archie to have a top 40 hit before his song officially goes to adds.

Kristy gained also. Good for her!

So, is it 50-50 between sales and airplay on Billboard?

Not quite. I think it’s like 50% for airplay and 45% for sales and 5% for play-on-demand. Something like that. Sales used to count for twice as much as airplay until very recently. Under the old system, I think that “Crush” would have quite likely been number 1.

Last week, Disturbia had airplay of about 44M and sales of 148K. Airplay for the week was up 3.4 million at the 4 day mark (so, say 48M for the week). Archie has airplay of about 9 million (he’s up 1.9 million). So, to hit #1, I think he’d need about 48K more in sales to beat Disturbia (which isn’t the only song out there). If Disturbia sold another 148K, then he’d need close to 196K.

I don’t know. It’s possible. The popularity bars for “Crush” are pretty good. It all depends what’s going on in the background. He’s definitely getting the number 1 Download song and should easily cruise to Top 5 in the Hot 100.

ETA: Updated numbers. I mistook which Rhianna song was gaining and which was falling. Girl has a lot of hits.

Kirsten…..long time no see. You are a wonder!

“Solitaire” by Clay opened at #4 on Hot 100, marking the highest CD single debut from an idol contestant.

It is so cool that David is also a runner-up as Clay. Go David!

From HDD:

IDOL HANDS: American Idol runner-up David Archuleta’s new single, “Crush,” is soaring at iTunes, with 164k in digital sales. His debut album is slated for November release on 19 Recordings/Jive/ZLG. (8/18p)

So it looks like # 2 for Archie? Possibly? Wow, that would be incredible. As spins increase he could go to #1 for sure? LOL! Go David.

If HDD is right, Archie won’t go #1. I guess anything higher than #4 gives him bragging rights. The first week was the fan base but the song is making its move on Top 40. It should actually hit 40 tomorrow. Then we’ll see if he can connect with the news fans that hear it on the radio. Good start, Archie.

Wow, Jordin also is working on her third huge Top 40 hit. It could go Top 5 quickly as well. It’s probably the hottest song in terms of gaining play on that radio format by anyone.

I dont think fanbase alone got him to #1 on itunes and held him there..

couldnt edit…

Also wondering if that HDD figure is total sales or just the itunes.. because if thst just itunes, it doesnt figure in amazon…

Sorry I’m so late in saying “Thank You” to Spritely and Kristen! Thanks for the little lesson :smile1_tb:

ooohh these little things are so cute! :clap_tb: :king_tb: :wub_tb:

Saying the first week of sales for Archie is the fan base is not a negative. Who else would really know about the song from the first day? Now that it’s getting more extensive radio play, it’s becoming a more general hit. Every day it stays at #1 is a great day for Archie. Every idol starts with a fan base and then moves past it. If they don’t, then they don’t really make it. But Archie looks like he has a hit. Both Archie and Jordin have big bullets on today’s Top 40 chart.

His fanbase only get him on top 9 after the finale, about 70k? How did they get him to No.1 long after the finale? It’s not being negative or anything. It’s just not logical to assume fanbase got him there.

His fanbase only get him on top 9 after the finale, about 70k? How did they get him to No.1 long after the finale? Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s not being negative or anything. Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s just not logical to assume fanbase got him there.

Well, after the finale he didn’t have a single out. Just random AI performance downloads and not everyone buys those. But this is his first official single, so one would assume with all the hoopla more of his actual fans (hardcore and more casual) would purchase it to show support.

That said, I doubt it’s ALL his fanbase. He has gotten good airplay in one of the country’s biggest markets, and the song is catchy. I’m sure some of the sales come from that. That said, one has to assume that MOST of his sales are coming from Idol fans, since it’s not exactly getting the same kind of airplay as the other sings in the top 10.

When Crush was released to iTunes a week ago, it had play on Z100 and maybe 10 other stations. No TV or video promo at all. But it went to #1. However, since then it’s been getting alot more radio play and it’s still at #1. It’s the singer plus the song that’s doing it for Archie. The wrong song – perhaps the sappy ballad that people thought he’d do – might not move the units.

That’s why trying to figure out who will outsell who based on their downloads during the season doesn’t always work 100%. It might work 90% of the time but not 100 (ex. Blake/Jordin). Just because Archie didn’t sell huge numbers during his season doesn’t mean he won’t do well with the right material. Jive is very good at connecting with the teen market (see Jordin).

I don’t think the majority is fanbase, maybe half/half. He only has 40k friends in myspace, much less than Jason.

One thing David does great though, is to keep the extremely deep personal connections with the fans. I haven’t seen him lose fans during interactions with them at the tour. They can rob his title but not his fans. I can see him gathering more fans down the road, and take them far.