Monday Morning Mediabase Update – 05/10/09

psttt “à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Crushà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ : 8 AC (10)” 8 and 10 should be reversed

Michael Johns seems to be off to a good start in AC.
Nice to see CBTM charting in 3 formats, too.

I’m curious to see how Elliott’s album does when HDD comes in. Hope he surpassed their prediction.

Kris has the most spins? Far out!

Excellent news for Mr. Johns. Ol’ Silvertongue strikes again.

Wow, five spins for Kris’ cover of “Come Together,” more than anybody else, even more than my rock god and goddess…Yay for Kris! For a theme most people thought brought one of his weakest performances… Amazing!

Hope he surpassed their prediction.

What’s their prediction?

^^ 15-20K.

Thanks Jolene! I hope it’s more on the 20K side.

MJ, there’s a mistake on one of the song titles up there. I love rice, though, but I’m Asian, so pardon me when I smile seeing “Slow Rice.”

I surprised that “Dream On” only has 2!

Amazing, Kris got 5 spins! I didn’t expect that! And it beat out the better performances of the night: Whole Lotta Love, Cry Baby and Slow Ride.

But then again, without bandzilla, Kris’s Come Together sounds way better than it is drowned in all the instruments.

Carrie is on her way to her 9th number 1 single

I’m happy to see CBTM moving up the HAC charts for Cook. I’m a little surprised to already see it on AC. I thought that format was a lot slower at picking up new songs. Now Top 40 is disappointing. I don’t know why that format is so dance/urban heavy. Archie had trouble getting his last single to play there and now it looks like it might be resistant to Cook’s newest single, also. What’s up with that? No wonder I never listen to Top 40 stations in my area, they don’t play the kind of music I like.

Kris Allen got 5 spins! CONGRATS to Kris, showing that even in other genres Kris is doing pretty good. I really like Kris’s acoustic version also. Congrats to all of them.

J-Hud is number 1…wow! Congrats to her also.

MJ, thereà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s a mistake on one of the song titles up there. I love rice, though, but Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m Asian, so pardon me when I smile seeing à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Slow Rice.à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ 

It was from the Idol Iron Cook portion of the show. Did you forget to watch the second hour of Idol last week? Allison and Adam won it with their wonderful recipe for Slow Rice (Simon had two helpings). Little known fact: the “Dream On Scream” was actually dubbed from the portion in the Idol Iron Cook show when Danny lit himself on fire and then fell on a barbecue fork.

psttt à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Crushà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ : 8 AC (10)à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  8 and 10 should be reversed

Okay, that and the “Rice” is fixed. Thanks to frogcooke and haruhi for pointing them out!

That was so funny, Kirsten! And your Scream On, err, Dream On Scream portion of the Idol Iron Cook show must have been worth the watch. Now, I’m more than smiling, I’m laughing like a lunatic…Scream on!

Go Kris-5 spins! While watching the show you feel that the judges only see Adam so this is nice to see. Cook and Clarkson doing very well 5 formats each. Glad to see CBTM moving along hopefully a steady move upward for Cook.

Does anyone have anyword on Elliot’s sales? I know he sold at least one because I own one.

The current idol spins only correspond to songs played in full, not just portions, correct?

HDD which usually starts issuing sales numbers by now is “experiencing technical difficulties” so there are no sales numbers for Elliott or anyone else.

Which is perfect because his second album has really had a rocky start. As mentioned the prediction is between 15-20K and they didn’t update it on Friday, so it’s probably somewhere in that range. Hopefully at the high end.

Well HDD has Elliot at No. 3 on their Viberater chart, up from 10 and Cook and Archie slowly moved up their chart – I think HDD likes Elliott’s management team.

However from their sales chart, with 36% of results in Elliott is No. 29 with about 6000 units moved, even No. 1 Hannah Montana has only moved 40,000 units so far, everyone must have been spoiling Mom on the weekend as they should have been.

CHART DATE: 05/11/2009
LAST UPDATE: 05/11/2009 11:15:00
NOW IN: 36.20%

LW TW artist / album label power index

30 13 CARRIE UNDERWOOD ARISTA NASHVILLE 11,460
CARNIVAL RIDE

24 18 KELLY CLARKSON RCA/RMG 8,747
ALL I EVER WANTED

– 29 ELLIOTT YAMIN HICKORY RECORDS 5,998
FIGHT FOR LOVE

– 37 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 4,383
DAVID COOK

Hmmm, Cook’s numbers are better so far, compared to last week’s. Hopefully he’ll trend up when the final figures are in.

It’s nice to have Elliott’s name added to the report and I hope to continue seeing it for many weeks to come.

I guess HDD fixed their problem. Too bad Elliott didn’t get his shot on AI this season. It would have helped tremendously with his promo. However, three years in a row is alot to ask and I kind of feel they did the right thing giving Taylor his due. Everybody else is under 19R umbrealla so that was really the only available slot.

I can never predict using HDD numbers out so I’ll save any comment on his sales till the list is complete. Cook’s fans were masters on the calculus of HDD but it’s way past me.

Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s fans were masters on the calculus of HDD but ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s way past me.

LOL. I was actually going to try and extrapolate for Elliott based on the 1st update, but I don’t know if his sales pattern is anything like Cook’s so I’d probably be dead wrong. Also it’s his first week so I believe iTunes will play a larger part than usual. One of the following updates should boost him up some in ranking.

Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s fans were masters on the calculus of HDD but ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s way past me.

Haha, so true. I have no idea how those guys on the DCO Billboards & Charts thread do it, but I check that thread nearly every time there’s an HDD update to read the immediate reactions cuz they are SCARY good at the extrapolations, etc.

Daughtry:
à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“No Surpriseà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ : ^40 HAC (NEW)

“No Surprise” officially goes for adds in a few weeks… but it’s off to a great start:

TOP 40
#1 at Taking Off
12 new stations
203 spins

HAC
#1 at Taking Off
12 new stations
149 spins

Now Top 40 is disappointing. I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t know why that format is so dance/urban heavy. Archie had trouble getting his last single to play there and now it looks like it might be resistant to Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s newest single, also. Whatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s up with that?

It actually had its first spincrease in quite a while today, but, in general, it’s just not very Top 40 compatible at the moment. It’s not a slow song, but it’s slow-building and CHR PDs are probably asleep by the time the song actually picks up, if they even bother to listen that long. I temporarily held the opinion that it would be a nice hit on Top 40 when it started quickly, but my mind changed when it hit a wall just inside the Top 50.

It is a natural fit for HAC and AC, but he’s got to get a CHR hit to have a chance at a 2x platinum album. Planitum is nice. Double-platinum is nicer. Anyway, if any song on his record has a chance of becoming a big CHR hit, it’s Lie.

à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“No Surpriseà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  officially goes for adds in a few weeksà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ but ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s off to a great start:

TOP 40
#1 at Taking Off
12 new stations
203 spins

Glad you posted this because it illustrates what I’ve stated a few times about the value in having made yourself into a “name” or a “brand” in the industry. That’s the point to which both Davids need to get.

To me, “No Surprise” sounds exactly like it could be one of the singles off of Daughtry’s first record– one of the weaker singles of the bunch. However, radio stations, CHR included, are probably going to play the hell out of it because it has the name “Daughtry” on it. “Daughtry” is a brand. So far, “David Cook” and “David Archuleta” have yet to reach that level.

Anyway, if any song on his record has a chance of becoming a big CHR hit, ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s Lie.

Lie is slower than CBTM, though. It’s my favorite song on the album, but I don’t think it fits CHR any better than CBTM does. If CHR won’t play a slower song, I think the best bet is Heroes, but honestly nothing from David will fit naturally on current CHR (Because current CHR SUCKS, ahm).

BTW – I love that HAC and AC seem to embrace Cook fully (Not saying I don’t want him to have a CHR smash, but, y’know, It’s good to have other formats available if CHR is too urban/rhythmic/dance for him right now).

PS – The thing about radio playing “name artists”? It’s circular. You can’t get there without radio support boosting your sales and recognition in the first place (unless we’re talking about artists who got their “name” through constant appearances in the tabloids).

Lie is slower than CBTM, though. Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s my favorite song on the album, but I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t think it fits CHR any better than CBTM does.

But, that’s the thing– Lie is definable as a ballad, or maybe you could call it a power ballad. And pop radio does still play slow songs and ballads– at least, I think– if they are good enough, which I believe Lie is. (Radio has changed since Daughtry debuted, but I could see Lie catching on the same way “Home” did.)

By contrast, what do you call CBTM? It’s not really fast or slow. It starts off as a slower mid-tempo and builds to a faster mid-tempo by the end. For a while, I thought it’s distinctiveness would give it the chance to become a hit. But now I think CHR hears it and doesn’t know what to do with it.

I don’t like Heroes or Declaration as singles even though they seem to have a pop-frinedliness about them, because the vocals could be stereotyped as “screamy” and “distorted” at points, and I don’t see Top 40 going for that right now. Also, if CBTM does end up being a flop in pop, it’s important to get the next single right, because two CHR flops in a row may cause that format to write him off entirely.

On the other hand get a big hit, and “David Cook” is closer to being coming a “name” to radio. And I think the one song that might get him there is Lie.

Anyway, if any song on his record has a chance of becoming a big CHR hit, ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s Lie.

I’ve always thought this too, both for the reasons you suggest as well as the universal appeal (especially to males, imo) of the lyrics. So I sure hope they release it, and I sure hope we’re right when they do.

Since the subject of Lie and being a single has come up I thought I’d mention something. I don’t know if this means anything but Saturday I noticed in Target DCTR was restocked on the pop/rock endcap but what caught my eye was the little silver sticker on the front that said “featuring the hits Light On, Come Back To Me and Lie”, previously it listed the other two and Life On The Moon. Wonder if that means anything? noctem is right that CHR most definitely still plays ballads. If a song is good enough it could get played. IMO “Lie” is a significantly better song than CBTM.

^^ Verrrrry interrrresting…. *ponders*
It could be meaningful, since CBTM being on that sticker certainly was (even though people didn’t think so before the single announcement).

Hmm. I love Lie, so if at some point it’ll become a single, I’d be very pleased that the world gets to hear the David I love (LO and CBTM, sadly, are my two least favorite songs on the album. Imagine that, RCA).

PS – No new HDD updates? *sads*

Oh I would be so excited to hear Lie on my radio – that is my favorite song on the album too. And Light On & Come Back to Me are also two of my least favorites (I Did It for You is actually my least favorite).

IMO à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Lieà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  is a significantly better song than CBTM.

Agreed. I still think Life On The Moon would be a CHR hit if they ever released it to radio. I would be happy to see either Lie, Heroes, or LOTM as a third single.

If Elliott sells in the same pattern as Cook, and that is a big if, his numbers could range between 12,500 and 14,500.

^^ There are reasons why I don’t think that pattern will hold true (at least I hope not, for Elliott). For one, iTunes accounts for a much larger percentage of sales for new releases (album sales on iTunes drop very fast after the initial rush), which means the iTunes update should boost Elliott more than most of his competition. Also, the last update usually favors rhythm-leaning artists, and Elliott might benefit from that (or he might not). Cook usually starts strong and loses some ground in ranking with the final update, whereas others start slow and get their largest increase late in the game.

In all honesty, I’m hoping HDD was low-balling, so hopefully Ellliott’s strongest sellers haven’t reported yet.

CHART DATE: 05/11/2009
LAST UPDATE: 05/12/2009 10:43:47
NOW IN: 50.65%

24 12 KELLY CLARKSON RCA/RMG 14,953
ALL I EVER WANTED

30 18 CARRIE UNDERWOOD ARISTA NASHVILLE 11,460
CARNIVAL RIDE

– 27 ELLIOTT YAMIN HICKORY RECORDS 9,152
FIGHT FOR LOVE

– 38 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 5,785
DAVID COOK

CHART DATE: 05/11/2009
LAST UPDATE: 05/12/2009 11:23:52
NOW IN: 68.46%

LW TW artist / album label power index

24 14 KELLY CLARKSON RCA/RMG 18,521
ALL I EVER WANTED

– 18 ELLIOTT YAMIN HICKORY RECORDS 17,252
FIGHT FOR LOVE

30 21 CARRIE UNDERWOOD ARISTA NASHVILLE 15,619
CARNIVAL RIDE

– 40 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 8,209
DAVID COOK

I hate HDD because I can never figure it out. Even though you think that 2/3s of the numbers are in, it doesn’t actually mean that. The final update could look exactly like this one so it’s really confusing.

Well, at least Elliott sold above the minimum HDD predicted (15K) and it would be nice if he could break 20K but I’m not predicting anything based on this update.

I hate HDD because I can never figure it out. Even though you think that 2/3s of the numbers are in, it doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t actually mean that. The final update could look exactly like this one so ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s really confusing.

The percentage usually doesn’t say much, but after watching the same artists over a long enough period of time, some patterns emerge that make it easier to predict. I had no way to tell how Elliott would sell because this is his first week, but I predicted 10K for Cook based on the first update, and that still looks about right.

Right now, I think it looks good for Elliott to pass 20K, but we’ll see. This last update looks like iTunes, because it gave Elliott a much bigger relative boost (8K) than Cook (2.4K), Kelly (3.5K) and Carrie (4K).

CHART DATE: 05/11/2009
LAST UPDATE: 05/12/2009 13:19:59
NOW IN: FINAL

LW TW artist / album label power index % change

24 15 KELLY CLARKSON RCA/RMG 24,009 29%
ALL I EVER WANTED

– 25 ELLIOTT YAMIN HICKORY RECORDS 20,185 —
FIGHT FOR LOVE

30 27 CARRIE UNDERWOOD ARISTA NASHVILLE 19,348 23%
CARNIVAL RIDE

– 44 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 12,502 —
DAVID COOK

– 45 DAUGHTRY RCA/RMG 12,007 —
DAUGHTRY

Nice bump for David Cook and amazing bump for Daughtry
Actually – nice bumps all round

Awwwww, I LOVE that bump for Cook. About 50% up from last week and back in the Top 50 after two weeks out, nice!
Daughtry got the Idol bump and it’s nothing less than I expected. The first album will probably manage to sell that 5th Platinum it was certified for (I think it’s missing around 550K right now?).

Nice to see Elliott make the top end of the HDD prediction, I hope he stays in the Top 50 for a long time.