Monday Morning Mediabase Update – 01/19/09

Here are your very abbreviated Monday Morning Medibase Updates (Top 30/40/50/whatever in major formats only).

Carrie Underwood:
“I Told You So”: ^41 Country (85)

Chris Sligh:
“Arise”: 34 CAC (33)

Daughtry:
à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“What About Nowà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ : 9 AC (7)

David Archuleta:
“Crush”: ^6 AC (7)

David Cook:
à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Time of My Lifeà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ : 1 AC (1)
“Light On”: ^7 HAC (9), ^23 Pop (24), ^30 AC (27)

Jennifer Hudson:
“If This Isn’t Love”: ^24 UAC (24), ^40 Urban (44)
à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Spotlightà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ : 5 UAC (5)

Jordin Sparks:
à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“One Step At A Timeà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  : ^19 AC (20)

Josh Gracin:
“Telluride”: ^40 Country (44)

Kellie Pickler:
“Best Days of Your Life” : ^38 Country (38)

Kelly Clarkson:
“My Life Would Suck Without You”: ^28 Pop (NEW), ^31 HAC (NEW)

Note: Numbers indicate position on the chart while numbers in brackets indicate the position on the chart the previous week. à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‹^à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ indicates that the song has a bullet in that format.

  • Kris

    Its great to see how well Crush is doing on AC. It just goes to show how much wide appeal the song has. I wonder if the song could hit double platinum.

  • wildcatatheart

    I just noticed David Cook’s “Light On” is number 12 on i-tunes. Why the sudden jump? I am thrilled, to say the least, because this song deserves so much more than where it is at now. But did I miss something?

  • http://www.myspace.com/gwendolyndiane GwendolynD

    Why the sudden jump?

    Could be the American Idol premiere last week….

  • weareallinnocent

    Cook did perform on Kimmel last week, in addition to the plugs from the AI premiere. I’m thinking that the casual AI viewer who appreciated him last year finally noticed that he had some new music out. I truly believe there are alot more people like that than there are Idol/Cook/Archie fanatics. Hard to believe, but I still think it’s possible. :-)

  • Kirsten

    Why the sudden jump?

    AOL wasn’t the right audience. SNL wasn’t the right audience. Morning news shows weren’t the right audience. Pop radio wasn’t the right audience. Late night talk shows were not the right audience. Sports fans were not the right audience. Daytime talk shows were not the right audience. New Year’s party fans were not the right audience. But, like the Little Engine That Could, RCA and 19M kept up their Sisyphean efforts and finally found a target audience receptive to “Light On”. American Idol audiences. Well done! *cough*

    New single now, please.

  • weareallinnocent

    ^^I know you’re trying to make a point, Kirsten, but imo this overstates it just a bit. Mileage.

    ETA: Succumbing to peer pressure, I hereby withdraw the phrase “just a bit.” LOL

  • FolkFan

    What weareallinnocent said. Maybe delete the “just a bit.”

  • Jolene

    I’m actually one of those who can’t wait for a new single and think LO wasn’t the best first single for DC, but the song didn’t start selling with this bump – it reached Gold last week and it has been climbing in sales right along increased radio spins.
    Rumoures of its demise have been greatly exaggerated.

    This song has not buried DC and doesn’t look like it did his album sales any harm. It might have even sold one or two, who knows… (-;

    We’ll wait and see what happens with the next single when it comes out. I’m a born angster, but I feel no angst over this.

  • Keel

    I think it overstates it by a lot. I mean it was Top 10 in HAC and Top 30 in Pop and AC BEFORE AI, so I don’t get how it was never exposed to the right audience. I also thought LO’s sales the past two weeks in iTunes weren’t too bad. And the fact that it got a bump because of AI doesn’t mean it wasn’t doing well on its own before. No one is saying it’s the biggest thing since Bleeding Love but c’mon.

  • Trina

    I kinda get what Kirsten is saying to a certain extent. Sure LO was starting to improve on iTunes as airplay started kicking in. As opposed to hanging around the 90’s it started to rise and hang around the 50’s more then the 40’s and sometimes bump up to the 30’s. The week after Christmas when it got that huge sales spike all singles did and it didn’t go up that much higher in actual rank. Everytime that DC/AI commercial airs LO gets an iTunes bump. Often it aired on weekends during games and stuff – it would get small bumps. But when you air it premiere week of AI, during AI, the night of Kansas City auditions no less..yep that would be quite substantial. It hasn’t been this high since the week it came out so clearly the AI audience this past week did something much bigger for the song than it’s seen in a while. Even the original SNL airing and rerun didn’t do much.

    And yes next single please. I think LO is losing steam on pop.

  • carson

    The mediabase chart I looked at this morning had Kelly C at 28 on Pop and 31 on HAC???

  • gingerly

    I think LO was the right first single. If he can sell that many albums with a boat anchor, think what he will sell when the next and the next singles come out. Many, many artist’s best selling singles aren’t their first. If you blow your wad immediately, there’s nothing left. I believe RCA and David are in this for the long haul and there’s much to be said for slow and steady wins the race. It’s not a huge hit, but it’s accomplished its job I think.

  • jan

    If you blow your wad immediately, thereà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s nothing left.

    What she said! So far I think things are looking very good.

  • Jolene

    I want HDD numbers. This week should be an interesting one for DCTR.

    I think we’ll get news about the 2nd single when David returns from the Middle East.

  • FolkFan

    We don’t get too many Gingerly sightings here or at DCO, but I love it when we do. [Waves.]

    I agree, Jolene. The timing for that would be perfect—LO should have made top 5 on HAC by then, and LO either will have made top 20 on Top 40 or made it clear that it’s not making top 20. I also think that LO is a perfect headliner song for the USO tour—given its message and theme, it has always made me think of military personnel, having to leave their families.

    Oh, and yes, I’m very interested to see the HDD numbers this week.

  • yeahyeahsure

    I’m not sure if this is the right place to ask this but I’ll take my shot. Does anyone have the peak positions (Top 40, HAC, Hot 100, Top Digital) of the debut singles (non coronation single) of the Idols? Who holds the record for having the highest debut single?

  • Kirsten

    The mediabase chart I looked at this morning had Kelly C at 28 on Pop and 31 on HAC???

    Darn. I generally check the dates on the chart before I make my charts, but I probably did it too early this morning and used older charts. Kelly’s song is moving up the charts so FAST that every single chart update makes a big difference. I’ll update the chart. Thanks for bringing this too my attention.

    I think LO was the right first single. If he can sell that many albums with a boat anchor, think what he will sell when the next and the next singles come out.

    See, now I just think that LO has been pretty much a wasted effort. I think he has enough hits on that album, he didn’t have to lead off with this underperformer. If he’d led off with a good song and spent that much money promoting, I think it would have yielded even better results. He didn’t have to start off with his best single, but that doesn’t mean he should start with one of the worst ones. There are such things as “medium” or “third best” or something. All IMO, of course. Building the audience outside of AI is the trick. AI fueled sales are not going to impress me. I’m a tough audience. Even the songs contestants butchered last week are moving up the charts.

  • Kirsten

    Does anyone have the peak positions (Top 40, HAC, Hot 100, Top Digital) of the debut singles (non coronation single) of the Idols? Who holds the record for having the highest debut single?

    “Crush” holds the record for highest peak on the Hot 100 for a debut album single (I remember that from the discussion last summer) at 2. I think it also the highest on the Digital Chart (since it went to 1, it at least tied for 1st). Kelly’s “Miss Independent” went to 1 on the Top 40 and Mainstream 40 charts (9 on the Hot 100, digital sales didn’t really exist back then). Daughtry’s “It’s Not Over” went to 1 on Adult Top 40 (HAC) and 5 on Mainstream Rock Tracks (4 on the Hot 100). Carrie’s “Jesus, Take the Wheel” went to number 1 on the Country chart (20 on the Hot 100 and 18 on digital downloads). Elliott’s “Wait for You” went to 5 on Hot AC and Pop 100 (and 13 on the Hot 100). Jordin’s “Tattoo” went to 8 on the Hot 100 and 5 on Mainstream Top 40. I believe that it is the best selling debut album single to date at 1.8M.

    Of course, lots of those songs have peaks on other charts (and some did quite well internationally). Ruben’s, Clay’s and Fantasia’s singles did okay. The less said about Taylor’s single the better. Most of this is from wiki, so not all information is available.

  • tinawina

    I want a new single just so we can stop arguing about this one. LOL. Plus, I don’t care who’s right. Not.One.Bit. There are more songs to come, most agree the rest will do better than this one (which wasn’t all that bad really, just arguably not up to DC’s potential), and in the meantime, he sold a ton of albums. So, yeah. Whatever. Methinks a new one is around the corner anyway.

    So, how about those Steelers? :innocent1_tb:

  • gingerly

    Well, even before the AI bump, David was selling albums steadily. He’s never been out of the top 20 for albums sold. That wasn’t the idol audience. I really don’t care if he never has a top 40 hit. I don’t know that it’s necessary to sell albums. I don’t really think he’s a top 40 artist. If Katy Perry and yes, even Kelly’s new song, are what makes top 40 hits, I hope he never does. I’m quite content with his success on HAC (the only format I can even listen to for a few minutes). He’s not r&b or techno, he’s not pop. I don’t want him to be, and I’m sure that’s so not what he wants to be. So his singles don’t sell well. I say good on him because his album is the 3rd highest debut album of the year. I see him in no danger of being dropped; I actually see him as maybe being able to make an album more to his liking next time. LO has bullets in T-40, HAC and AC; why are we even having this conversation?

    ETA: *waving back at FolkFan*

  • FolkFan

    I can’t believe that we’re on this topic again. I kind of felt like, a few weeks ago, DC fans were kind of encouraged not to dogpile on about this, and I know that I’ve tried to be restrained on the topic. But if you’re inviting a dogpile, sure, I’ll dogpile away.

    The fact of the matter is that as LO’s airplay has gone up, LO’s sales have gone up. To be sure, they did not jump to the top 20 before Season 8 started up, but ranking wise they were regularly in the upper 30s and lower 40s ever since the airplay began to grow in mid-November and (excluding the week of DCTR’s debut when “complete my album” cut into LO sales and the two weeks of post-Xmas itunes singles explosions for the entire chart), have been routinely in the 20K to 30K zone for a couple of months now.

    That doesn’t even take into account the possibility that some people who have heard and liked LO have decided to buy DCTR, instead of LO as a single. Plenty of people sell a ton of a single but can’t get people to buy the record. For those who say that “Gee, if the first single had not been LO, he would have sold more records,” I say that’s just guesswork on your part. DCTR looks very likely to be platinum within 4 months of its release, which in this music market, is pretty damn strong. Maybe he’d have hit platinum a bit sooner with a different first single. Maybe. But given how few artists are managing to hit platinum in under 4 months even with big singles, it’s pure speculation that he’d have managed it much faster if, say, Declaration had been single #1.

    And, push come to shove, you can product place whatever you want, it doesn’t mean that consumers will buy it. If people saw AI and decided to buy DCTR, LO, or Magic Rainbow, that was, in fact, a decision. As I understand it, itunes rankings reflect three days of sales on itunes, which makes it particularly striking that the numbers spikes on itunes and amazon for both DCTR and LO have extended now for more than 4.5 days after the two AI episodes buys, meaning that the impulse buys of the first 36 hours after episode 2 are likely out of the system.

  • Kirsten

    But if youà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re inviting a dogpile, sure, Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll dogpile away.

    Just as nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition, nobody invites a dogpile. LOL. Somebody asked about the surge, and I theorized that it’s because 19M finally found a receptive audience for Light On.

    And, push come to shove, you can product place whatever you want, it doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t mean that consumers will buy it.

    See. I’m in total agreement with you. We see eye-to-eye on many things. One only has to look at the utter failure of the other LO television appearances to make a significant difference in sales to see that merely placing a product doesn’t mean people will buy it. I fully agree that the people who are buying LO this past week do actually want to buy the song. “Light On” apparently appeals to viewers of AI. 19M needs to use that information to distill what factors define that target audience and focus their efforts on audiences that share those factors (hopefully, some of them who are not currently watching AI).

    As I understand it, itunes rankings reflect three days of sales on itunes, which makes it particularly striking that the numbers spikes on itunes and amazon for both DCTR and LO have extended now for more than 4.5 days after the two AI episodes buys, meaning that the impulse buys of the first 36 hours after episode 2 are likely out of the system.

    I’m not sure about that. AI purchasers don’t all leap to their computer immediately after the show. Some appear to be quite lazy. Over the years, I’ve been watching singles performed on the show sail up the iTunes chart and the effect typically lasts longer than a few days (and some, like Iz’s SOTR, stayed up for a very long time). I understand that Bon Jovi’s “Livin’ on a Prayer” was performed last week on the show (though not very well), and it is still sitting at 41 which is much higher than it was last week. Likewise with Bon Jovi’s “Wanted Dead or Alive”.

  • gingerly

    One only has to look at the utter failure of the other LO television appearances to make a significant difference in sales to see that merely placing a product doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t mean people will buy it.

    If you are talking about selling the single, I’m in total agreement. If, however you are talking about selling David Cook, the record, I can’t agree. He’s never been out of the top 20 since his album dropped. It may not have catapulted him to number one, but I doubt that was ever the plan. Personally, I think albums sold > singles sold. I can’t help but think the label and the artist agrees.

  • spanishfan

    I am utterly content with the single and with the way it is showing its legs and with the marvellous performance of the album and all in all a happy chappy. TOML you were all dying for it to fade away, but it sold over 1.1million and is still going strong. TPTB know the right way and David is doing very well with their knowledge and input. The mere fact that both are still around and being played is an example of this. One man ´s meat is another ´s poison, so allow for those of us who love LO. I believe it will be No. 6 on HAC this week and hopefully climb to 20 ´s on Top 40.

  • Kirsten

    If you are talking about selling the single, Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m in total agreement. If, however you are talking about selling David Cook, the record, I canà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t agree.

    I’m just refering to the single. I think the “David Cook” album has sold very well.

    Personally, I think albums sold > singles sold. I canà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t help but think the label and the artist agrees.

    Sure, but a better single often yields more sales too. Singles are meant to be ads for the album. It’s all speculation of course. It could be that a more successful single might have made people not want to buy the album, but that doesn’t happen very often. A single can be more successful than an album, but if people were going to buy the album anyway, why would the be less inclined to do it if they LOVED the single.

  • carson

    Daughtryà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s Not Overà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  went to 1 on Adult Top 40 (HAC) and 5 on Mainstream Rock Tracks (4 on the Hot 100).

    It also went to #3 on Top40.

  • FolkFan

    I’d also disagree about whether the various TV appearances have led (or not led) to increases in sales. After SNL, both LO and the unreleased DCTR had increased sales on itunes. It’s a little hard to say with Leno and some of the appearances from the week of DCTR’s release, because for much of that week LO’s itunes ranking was affected by there being two versions of the song on the itunes chart (the “single” version and the “album” version), although it was after that period of time that LO began to make regular forays into the 30s on itunes.

  • http://www.myspace.com/gwendolyndiane GwendolynD

    AOL wasnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t the right audience. SNL wasnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t the right audience. Morning news shows werenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t the right audience. Pop radio wasnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t the right audience. Late night talk shows were not the right audience. Sports fans were not the right audience. Daytime talk shows were not the right audience. New Yearà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s party fans were not the right audience. But, like the Little Engine That Could, RCA and 19M kept up their Sisyphean efforts and finally found a target audience receptive to à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Light Onà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ . American Idol audiences. Well done! *cough*

    Wow…

    I tasted that.

    And, the funeral has obviously been called off.

    Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s a little hard to say with Leno and some of the appearances from the week of DCTRà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s release, because for much of that week LOà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s itunes ranking was affected by there being two versions of the song on the itunes chart (the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“singleà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  version and the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“albumà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  version), although it was after that period of time that LO began to make regular forays into the 30s on itunes.

    It’s definitely hard to pinpoint what the reason for the jump might be. Since the TV appearances were recent, that’s those are the only events to which it can be attributed.

  • Jolene

    Yeah, the LO debate has been going on for far too long and it’s all getting a little stale by now. That song is not a mega hit, it’s a moderate hit, but the album is selling very very well and no one can prove it would have sold better with another single. It’s all speculation.

    I don’t think LO was the perfect first single, but I don’t see the point in beating this poor dead horse anymore – it was what it was, it did what it did, it’s not the last single DC puts out, not the best one and not the biggest one. The next single is imminent.

    And people are allowed to actually be happy when LO gets a sales bump, even if that won’t make it the OMG!ZOMG!Bestseller of the year. It’s OK to say something positive about this song without accompanying it with the disclaimer “the author does not mean to imply in any way that LO is or will ever be the most successful song in existence”.

    HDD, where are you? We need those numbers! *sigh*

  • gingerly

    I guess I just think that DCTR has sold well enough that beating up on it’s single is rather silly. Could the album have done better had the single shot to the top. Maybe, but maybe not too. There are many single sellers who don’t sell albums. Jordin Sparks is a prime example. She’s done amazingly well with her singles but her album has just now gotten to platinum. David Cook (other than TOML) hasn’t had a platinum single, while Jordin has had 3 and it’s taken this long for her album to get to platinum. I just don’t understand how an album can be discounted for the singles it produces. I said before, and I’ll say it again album >single. I also said that LO was a good first single and I’ll stick by that. I see in no way that it’s hurt him. I still (after all this time) see bullets on 3 formats. I see (for whatever reason you decide) his sales doing well.

  • weareallinnocent

    Sure, but a better single often yields more sales too. Singles are meant to be ads for the album. Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s all speculation of course. It could be that a more successful single might have made people not want to buy the album, but that doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t happen very often. A single can be more successful than an album, but if people were going to buy the album anyway, why would the be less inclined to do it if they LOVED the single.

    Maybe… But, how do you measure that “a better single” sold more albums, if you can’t even measure how many albums this single sold? Or, how do you even define “a better single” for this purpose? Heck, you could even surmise, that because LO isn’t the best track on the album, it sold more albums — because people wanted the other songs, not LO! And LO, in that instance, was simply the beacon that led the masses to the album! (pun intended) In that scenario, LO is the BEST single EVAH! :-)

    And, just for purposes of this discussion — not to compare or compete, please — how does the logic of the quoted paragraph fare when applied to “Crush?”

    I get that all of this is fodder for discussion, of course. Ultimately, I believe we can give props to AI generated sales without denigrating the audience. As I said to begin, not everyone follows artists and releases with such fervor. Some peeps just listen to the radio or watch TV occasionally. Not all listen and watch to the same things, and not nearly as many peeps watch shows as watch AI. We could very well be talking quantity not audience quality or even demography. And, we could be (and imo, likely are) dealing with a simple reminder to those already exposed to Cook that he is still alive and kicking out tunes. :-)

    But, anyway…

  • Kirsten

    And people are allowed to actually be happy when LO gets a sales bump,

    People can be happy all they want. They can even be estatic if they choose. People can also be completely unimpressed.

    Just because I’m unimpressed doesn’t meant that I expect everybody to agree with me. Just as when I’m completely impressed with Kelly Clarkson’s song doing so well, I understand that some people might not be impressed (I need to hear the entire song some day. I’ve only heard the snippet. Me thinking it’s doing well is divorced from whether or not I actually like the song because I have no opinion on the song’s quality yet).

    People have a variety of opinions on these things. They have different interpretations of things. They speculate in different directions. If everybody agreed with everybody, there would be no point in having a comments section. Just endless pages of “Me Too!!!!!”. That would be dull, IMO.

    Undeniably, “Light On” is moving more units this week. Somebody asked why that was. People posted their speculative reasons why.

    I just donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t understand how an album can be discounted for the singles it produces.

    I don’t see anybody doing that.

  • http://myspace.com/girlgeek mj

    And people are allowed to actually be happy when LO gets a sales bump, even if that wonà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t make it the OMG!ZOMG!Bestseller of the year. Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s OK to say something positive about this song without accompanying it with the disclaimer à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“the author does not mean to imply in any way that LO is or will ever be the most successful song in existenceà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ .

    I think it works both ways. Can Kirsten make a point without the usual suspects having a cow?

    No one is stopping anyone from being “happy”. If the presence of negative opinions harshes your high. Oh well.

    Honestly. It’s just an opinion. Can we all please keep calm?

  • yeahyeahsure

    Thank you Kirsten and Carson! Is the “Top 40 Charts” the one we track on mediabase? It’s interesting to have seen how much “Miss Independent” would’ve sold in this digital age. Also, I knew “It’s Not Over” was huge but wow its rock airplay is very impressive. Radio has been kind to almost all of the Idols.

  • SashaB

    Kirsten, thanks as always for the mediabase numbers.

    David Cook:
    à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Time of My Lifeà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ : 1 AC (1)
    à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Light Onà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ : ^7 HAC (9), ^23 Pop (24), ^30 AC (27)

    Awesome when the arrows point up. Thankfully, the arrows haven’t ever pointed down. Yay, Magic Rainbows still at #1? This song will not die. Ever.

    My only comment on this morning’s comments is that I don’t think SNL can ever be considered a “not right audience”. I think it was fantastic that David Cook was able to premiere and debut as an artist on SNL. And the Saturday before the elections with John McCain and Ben Affleck? Wow! Talk about a plum media spot for that alone. And his “Declaration” was great. NBC repeated the broadcast the last week of December, too, so more eyeballs and that McCain QVC bit was kinda funny, even though so many other segments were not. I’m sure that MTV or VH1 will show it again, too. I see Ashlee Simpson’s SNL show on repeat all the time. Heh. Anywho, am thrilled that was DC’s introduction to the world after May 21st.

    I think the increased airplay that Kirsten noted, along with the VH1 Top 20 video (LO was #4 this week) as well as AI pimpage this week have all made people more familiar with LO. The last three week’s have had strong sales numbers for LO – so people are downloading it at a nice clip – and it just went gold. Hopefully, we’ll see more downloads for LO this week, given that it moved up to as high as #11 on iTunes and Walmart.com this past week. Should be interesting.

    à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“My Life Would Suck Without Youà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ : ^28 Pop (NEW), ^31 HAC (NEW)

    And can I just say, thank heavens that Kelly Clarkson is back. Yippee! She’s already #28? Fantastic. I am so glad to be hearing Kelly on my radio. I can’t wait to download this on Tuesday.

  • FolkFan

    I think it works both ways. Can Kirsten make a point without the usual suspects having a cow?

    Sorry, MJ. I rather thought that it was a pretty respectful discussion, despite the fact that there are obvious disparities of viewpoint, but if you disagree with that, hey, I’ll step back.

  • Jolene

    Can Kirsten make a point without the usual suspects having a cow?

    I saw the dead horse, but I guess I missed the cow. (-;
    Seriously though, I can’t wait for the next single, this topic is just OLD, that’s all.

    Hmmm, no HDD.

  • Incipit

    I like concrete facts, I even like numbers, in that context, (but no other) and I am extremely wary of speculation, because it’s all unverifiable opinion, regardless of how ‘informed’.

    So the numbers and facts that show up on this thread are what interest me, what I appreciate – but I really have to say, Weareallinnocent, in the context of reading those speculations, that you ask the best dam questions I’ve read on here!!

    In My Opinion, of course.

  • Kirsten

    And, just for purposes of this discussion à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’  not to compare or compete, please à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’  how does the logic of the quoted paragraph fair when applied to à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Crush?à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ 

    Sure. I think that “Crush” being successful increased sales of the album. Just as I think the fact that there being no signficant airplay yet for “A Little Too Not Over You” is hurting album sales. Not all albums need singles to sell (just look at Josh Groban) and not all successful singles move albums. That’s a known fact. But a successful single can help move an album, or there is little point in having the single (though, I think labels will have to learn to be happy just having successful singles sometimes). If no single is necessary, just don’t have one. Saves a lot of money.

    Ultimately, I believe we can give props to AI generated sales without denigrating the audience.

    I’m not denigrating the audience. As an avid fan of AI, why would I denigrate myself? There is nothing wrong with AI fueled sales. I would just hope that 19M would do a better job of expanding the audience for the material. They are being paid the big bucks to do that. Even a neophyte could come up with the idea of featuring the song on AI.

    Thank you Kirsten and Carson! Is the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Top 40 Chartsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  the one we track on mediabase?

    It’s the BDS one that appears in Billboard. It’s pretty much the same thing.

  • http://www.myspace.com/gwendolyndiane GwendolynD

    No HDD…

    No tour dates…

    No nothing….

  • weareallinnocent

    Who’s not calm?

    *shrug* Guess I totally missed something big… Like a cow. ;-P

    Bowing out now. :bye_tb:

    ETA: LOL Came back long enough to read a compliment and to say, “Thanks!” to Incipit!

  • http://myspace.com/girlgeek mj

    Sorry, MJ. I rather thought that it was a pretty respectful discussion, despite the fact that there are obvious disparities of viewpoint, but if you disagree with that, hey, Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll step back.

    The conversation is fine. But posters calling the conversation “old” and “beating a dead horse” and the cries of “why are we still talking about this” are out of line.

    Actually, Kirsten brings up a brand new point, which is that LO may not be appealing to audiences outside of the Idol faithful.

    It’s a topic worth discussing, without anger and without complaining.

    So, with that, please carry on.

  • http://www.myspace.com/gwendolyndiane GwendolynD

    Well, I actually looked at the entire discussion as whether or not Light On had any appeal. I guess I misinterpreted that.

    My apologies for misunderstanding.

  • Trina

    Actually, Kirsten brings up a brand new point, which is that LO may not be appealing to audiences outside of the Idol faithful.

    Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s a topic worth discussing, without anger and without complaining.

    I’ve been wanting to hit on this since the big spike the last week so I’m definitely glad it was brought up.

    The reason I choose to post here and not any of the other fan boards is because it’s practically impossible to voice a negative opinion without getting piled on. Sure people can be excited about LO’s spike, I’m THRILLED with it, but I also still stick by my opinion LO was the wrong first single and I haven’t always been impressed by how it’s done chart wise. A good balance of negative and positive opinions is never a bad thing.

  • mac

    Some numbers from HDD are in!!!!! 36% Cook at #5!!!!!

    LW TW artist / album label power index
    1 1 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 29,542
    FEARLESS
    2 2 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 23,024
    DARK HORSE
    4 3 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 18,531
    I AM… SASHA FIERCE
    9 4 NOW 29 UME 14,748
    VARIOUS ARTISTS
    19 5 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 12,952

  • Jolene

    OMG ZOMG! That’s almost as much as he had at this percentage two weeks ago, right? That’s more than I expected for the first update.

    Trying not to extrapolate…. trying not to extrapolate…

  • http://www.myspace.com/gwendolyndiane GwendolynD

    :clap_tb:

  • http://myspace.com/pm68 Pam

    Just so he isn’t forgotten. :)

    — 43 DAVID ARCHULETA 19/JIVE/ZLG 3,375
    DAVID ARCHULETA

  • tinawina

    I think it works both ways. Can Kirsten make a point without the usual suspects having a cow?

    While I agree with that general sentiment, I do think the way that Kirsten’s original opinion was worded was pretty much guaranteed to draw a dramatic response. LOL. That was like dropping a nuke round. I mean, we’ve all been here before, we all know how this works. Y’all had to have seen that coming.

    That said… I don’t think one can argue that having a bigger hit single wouldn’t have lead to more album sales. Of course it would have. That’s a no brainer IMO. I also think RCA intended for the song to do better. Why? Because it wouldn’t make sense for them NOT to want his first song to be highly successful. If for no other reason than they wouldn’t have people out there having discussions like this. LOL. Still, I don’t think that changing the single in November would have been a good decision. It was growing on radio, the album was selling well, and it would have only had a few weeks to get going before the Christmas freeze set in. Just riding the song out, to me, was the only practical option. And frankly, while it may have not been the huge hit everyone was hoping for, it did fine. It was not Break Anotha. It was not Just To Feel That Way. It became a moderate hit and contributed to him staying visible in the marketplace. Now he’s getting a nice little bump from last week’s promo, and he should settle back down right where he was before… LO in the 30s on ITunes, and the album somewhere in the Billboard top 20. It’s not really a bad place to be.

    If the song seems to have hit its Top 40 zenith right when he needed it too… during the January slump. Its probably at the peak of whatever sales it was going to generate right now. He’s about to launch a tour, and a new single is around the corner.. .my guess is we’ll get news in the next couple of weeks. To the degree the song “hurt” Cook, it hasn’t been by that much sales wise. I’m sure RCA is market testing like little gremilins as we speak, trying to figure out which song is going to perform the best, and they will release that one next. And then we’ll see what happens. And then we’ll get to argue over the next song. Sigh.

    ETA: HDD NUMBERS!!!!! Thank god. LOL.

  • FolkFan

    Actually, there are three idols on the first HDD update:

    19 5 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 12,952
    — 33 JENNIFER HUDSON ARISTA/RMG 4,500
    — 43 DAVID ARCHULETA 19/JIVE/ZLG 3,375

    Given that AC/DC and GnR are on the first update, that GnR has too much volume for it to be itunes, and that Twilight has too small a volume for it to be itunes, I suspect that this is partial Wal-Mart and partial Best Buy.

  • yeahyeahsure

    I predict all Idols to have significant bumps. Besides the Davids, Kelly’s new album (pre-order), Carrie’s, Daughtry’s, etc. all moved up on Amazon and Itunes.

  • frogcooke

    Cool DAs sales seem a bit better this week. Or well for last week haha. His cd is on sale at Best Buy this week, also.

    Im interested to see what Crush brings in this week. Its been holding around 40-39 ish range for a few days or more.

  • http://myspace.com/girlgeek mj

    While I agree with that general sentiment, I do think the way that Kirstenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s original opinion was worded was pretty much guaranteed to draw a dramatic response. LOL. That was like dropping a nuke round. I mean, weà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve all been here before, we all know how this works. Yà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢all had to have seen that coming.

    Point taken, but I don’t think it would have mattered how she worded it, the response would have been the same, I think. This subject gets under the skins of the DC fans here (and elsewhere–the usual suspects remarks was mostly aimed at those non-regulars who invariably drop in to join the fray), which is fine. I just ask everyone to follow the rules and proceed with respect, and to please stick to discussing the topic rather than complaining and criticizing the subject matter.

  • frogcooke

    YeahI dont think she could of worded it any differently.. sometimes its better to get straight to the point.

    But it does bring up an interesting point that it got a huge boost with the premiere of AI and having doneit on Jimmy Kimmel one of the same night. Whereas other performances and such didnt have nearly the effect on it that AI did.

  • mary111

    Maybeà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ But, how do you measure that à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“a better singleà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  sold more albums, if you canà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t even measure how many albums this single sold? Or, how do you even define à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“a better singleà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  for this purpose? Heck, you could even surmise, that because LO isnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t the best track on the album, it sold more albums à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’  because people wanted the other songs, not LO! And LO, in that instance, was simply the beacon that led the masses to the album! (pun intended) In that scenario, LO is the BEST single EVAH! :-)

    I agree with this completely. People very well could have liked LO enough to buy the whole album and not just the single. We really have no way to know so we really cant determine how big of a hit it really is. I cant say that LO isn’t a good song because it is my husbands favorite on the album (go figure). I dont think it really mattered what song they put out first, all of the songs, I think, will sell the album. I am glad they didn’t put out the big gun first. Sure maybe a different single may sell more singles but I am not convinced it would have sold more albums than LO did. So I don’t see that it really matters. All the singles will come out eventually and they will all sell the album. And that is all that really matters. (Hope this makes sense, LOL)

    And WOW to the HDD update. DC being #5 is amazing. The possibility of him being back in the top 10 looks really good.

  • Jolene

    I wouldn’t count on the album staying in the Top 10. It’s possible, but HDD projected otherwise. I’m extremely curious to see the iTunes update (hoping we can spot which one it is) because I think that might be where the AI bump had its biggest impact. Usually iTunes doesn’t add much for DC, because only the top albums there see large numbers… this week the album was one of those top albums for 4 days, so a source which normally contributes very little could potentially help him alot.

    It’s an interesting week, that’s for sure.

  • May

    Aww I think Cook is doing just fine. He’s already started to prove that he has appeal outside of Idol. Time of My Life did very well, the album sales have not shown the typical Idol-related plummet and Light On continues to move up the charts (a phenomenon that was occuring prior to his Idol appearance). In the long run, it doesn’t really matter if the current sales bump is due to Idol. Unless Billboard sticks a little astersisk next to Light On with a footnote declaring the sales null and void due to 2 minutes of Idol pimpage, then a sale is a sale is a sale. Light On is not a catchy pop tune so I never expected it to move up the charts at the speed of light. Sometimes those slow-to-grow songs are the ones that stick with people for years. Now if Cook choses to perform Light On when he is invited back to American Idol, then I will personally put out a hit on that song.

    Yippee for HDD numbers!

  • frogcooke

    “Now if Cook choses to perform Light On when he is invited back to American Idol, then I will personally put out a hit on that song.”

    hahahahaha

  • Hazehel

    Trying not to extrapolateà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦. trying not to extrapolateà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦

    And I’ll rashly extrapolate that David Cook will end up with ~30K, and predict in my usual cavalier way that HDD will be wrong and he will be in the top 10.

    I thought Kirsten rather funny myself, and she nearly convinced me until she said “Crush” increased the sales of David Archuleta’s album. Well, perhaps it did, but only by just a little.

  • SpenserJ

    YeahI dont think she could of worded it any differently.. sometimes its better to get straight to the point.

    For me, I don’t think she should have to.

    I agree that it did bring up an interesting point. I think a lot of AI viewers leave the bubble immediately following the finale. They don’t seek out info on the contestants during the summer or fall. So, when the winner is then featured on the following season, that may indeed be the first time they’ve thought about that person since May. And, perhaps it’s just the reminder they need to seek out that person’s music.

    Of course, I also think that a lot of AI fans buy some of the music out of loyalty, or to support their favorite (I say this mostly because I’ve done it myself) and not because it’s necessarily good.

    I have no opinion on whether Cook’s people picked the right first single (mostly because I’ve never heard most of the others LOL). And, if I’m being perfectly honest – the other night on AI was actually the first time I’ve heard it.

  • tinawina

    Lots to respond too! Here we go:

    Point taken, but I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t think it would have mattered how she worded it, the response would have been the same, I think. This subject gets under the skins of the DC fans here

    ITA there would have been responses regardless. But maybe the tone of the responses would have been different, that’s all. There’s direct speech and then there’s sarcastic bastard speech. LOL. Going for the sarcastic bastard is well within everyone’s rights, and highly entertaining for me personally, but don’t do it and then get all “Why are you all mad? I can’t express an opinion around here?” when you get an explosion of heated replies. LMAO. Sorry Kirsten. You know I love you. But as Dr Phil would say, this ain’t your first time at the rodeo. :laugh_tb:

    Just as I think the fact that there being no signficant airplay yet for à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“A Little Too Not Over Youà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  is hurting album sales.

    I actually have a question about that. It seems normal to expect that there will be a lull in radio exposure between singles, while one is dropping and the other is still being added. It also seems normal for album sales to drop during that time because of the decrease in visibility. Is my assumption here correct? Please note that I am not challenging your opinion in any way, but trying to learn about the normal ebb and flow of album sales.

    I wouldnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t count on the album staying in the Top 10. Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s possible, but HDD projected otherwise.

    I think it has a decent shot, but yeah I ain’t counting on it. Either way it got a nice bump! Woooo-hoooo!

    In the long run, it doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t really matter if the current sales bump is due to Idol. Unless Billboard sticks a little astersisk next to Light On with a footnote declaring the sales null and void due to 2 minutes of Idol pimpage, then a sale is a sale is a sale.

    What she said. That said, I think it’s a lot easier to get people to impulse buy a $1 song than a $10 album, so I’m a more impressed with the strength of the album’s bump than the single’s.

    And Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll rashly extrapolate that David Cook will end up with ~30K, and predict in my usual rather cavalier fashion that HDD will be wrong and he will be in the top 10.

    Hazhel, I’m really starting to like you. You seem like the kind of person it would be fun to hang out in a casino with. LOL.

  • weareallinnocent

    LMAO at tinawina and joining her at the casino with Hazehel, and saying Dude’s leaping back to the Top 10, no doubt about it. :-) HDD predictions were those based on one day sales, right? And, that one day happened to fall… wait for it… wait… the day before AI and Kimmel aired. So, I’m thinking HDD got it right for the day it considered and then failed to offer its usual “Weakend Update.” Maybe HDD didn’t update as usual because, ahem, some of the numbers didn’t “weaken” at all. :-)

    I’m liking this train of thought, so I’m climbing on board and doing my best Obama impression tooting the horn! LOL (Hope I didn’t just jinx either of them, btw.)

  • Kirsten

    I thought Kirsten rather funny myself, and she nearly convinced me until she said à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Crushà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  increased the sales of David Archuletaà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s album. Well, perhaps it did, but only by just a little.

    Ooo. A new discussion. I’m curious why you disagree.

    Here is my thinking. The last two runner-ups managed to move between 300-400K units. Blake started out with a largish fan base, but he didn’t really get a hit song. Kat’s song was a bigger success than “Break Anotha”. “Over It” peaked at 22 on Top 40 and had 530K in downloads. But the album was released in January. So, I think it’s reasonable to expect 300Kish for a reasonably popular runner-up without a hit (Kat was also quite popular her year, although she had her detractors as well). IIRC, Archie’s first week of AI single sales were similar to those for Blake and Kat (e.g. YGLABN, SOTR and Imagine) . So, I think that “Crush” helped move a lot of units of the album. Archie’s album isn’t as successful as Cook’s but I think he’s done well compared to artists in a similar position (runner-up AI pop artists – 3rd best selling runner-up out of 7). I think you have to decouple the two of them and look at how they would have sold without the single they did have. “Crush” was popular, so I think it helped draw attention to the album. Which is it’s job.

    Now, based on Cook’s compareables, I just don’t think we can call “Light On” a success. It doesn’t compare well to his own previous singles. It doesn’t compare well to previous AI “rock” singles. And it doesn’t compare well to the album it comes off of. I guess that it is possible that “Light On” fans are very disciplined and refused to buy the single for 99cents knowing that in 6 weeks they could buy the album (even though they would be credited the 99 cents if they bought it on iTunes), but I just don’t think that is how it usually happens.

    Although, I’m beginning to wonder if I should use Cook’s AI single sales as evidence of anything other than his popularity with Idol fans. It’s quite possible that it never extended beyond that group and my expectations for his ability to sell singles is wrong (see, I will admit when I’ve made a mistake). We’ll have to watch this year, but it may be the ability to move units on AI is not a strong indication of an artist’s ability to move singles in general outside of AI. Hopefully, his next single will be more illuminating.

    I think a lot of AI viewers leave the bubble immediately following the finale. They donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t seek out info on the contestants during the summer or fall. So, when the winner is then featured on the following season, that may indeed be the first time theyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve thought about that person since May. And, perhaps ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s just the reminder they need to seek out that personà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s music.

    I think there is a lot of validity in this. If you aren’t keeping track, it’s easy to miss that something has been released and I think most AI fans are casual fans who would not keep close track. That said, Nevada had some interesting statistics which showed that Idol appearances on AI don’t guarantee big upticks in sales. Taylor barely budged his sales numbers while Elliott had a big impact the first time he appeared. It could have been that people knew Taylor would have had an album out, but were less likely to expect it (and be looking for it) for a third place finisher.

    It’s like the boot song. “Bad Day” became an enormous hit, but Ruben’s boot song barely made a ripple. As FolkFan said, you can feature something, but it won’t make people buy it. It would be interesting if we could figure out the puzzle of how this works. We know that “Bad Day” was a huge hit in other countries before it was selected as the boot song, so it’s not surprising it went on to be the hit it was in the US. Likewise, Elliott had a huge hit with “Wait for Me” which may have been forshadowed by his AI appearance uptick.

    And, if Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m being perfectly honest – the other night on AI was actually the first time Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve heard it.

    It would be interesting to know how many other people heard it last week on AI for the first time too. 19M may need to target it’s energies more in the future because it may in fact be that they completely missed a huge segment of potential customers up until now.

  • soundscene

    HDD’s top 10 was the weakend update; it was published on Friday so it wasn’t just 1 day sales.

  • http://myspace.com/girlgeek mj

    ITA there would have been responses regardless. But maybe the tone of the responses would have been different, that’s all. There’s direct speech and then there’s sarcastic bastard speech. LOL. Going for the sarcastic bastard is well within everyone’s rights, and highly entertaining for me personally, but don’t do it and then get all “Why are you all mad? I can’t express an opinion around here?” when you get an explosion of heated replies.

    Indeed, why are people all mad? It’s just an opinion about a reality show contestant. I still fail to see the big deal. Kirsten isn’t attacking anyone personally on the blog.

    I’ve always made it clear from day one, sensitive fangirls (and boys) may not be very happy hanging here. I’m not going to ask people here to keep it vanilla just to keep the peace.

  • LK09

    Kirsten,

    I know this is not in any way an exact science, but I am curious if you have any thoughts on why DA’s single has sold so incredibly well, but although his album has sold well in today’s market, it hasn’t sold as well as DC’s, while DC’s single (from album) has sold reasonably well but not anywhere near DA’s.

    Now how does this (in your opinion) relate to the fact that rock generally sells more albums and pop generally sells more singles. Do you thinks these facts corelate to the sales of the 2 David’s albums vs singles?

    I hope that made sense.

    Also, people have mentioned that certain past idols’ songs have been on AI, but as I watched it and heard music, I had no idea whose songs were being played and their names. If I heard a DA song, I would know, but otherwise, how is a person to know and will it really make people buy their albums in that way? When I watched “Do You Think You Can Dance”, they labeled the song and artist before the dance started. I am sure that is a major reason why Jordan’s “No Air” sold so well. People knew what they were listening to.

  • frogcooke

    LK the second part is a good point. Someone made a comment on Davids Crush vid I think, that they loved the song and kept hearing it and untill very recently had no idea it was him singing it.

  • Keel

    Actually, Kirsten brings up a brand new point, which is that LO may not be appealing to audiences outside of the Idol faithful.

    I really can’t buy into the notion that LO has not appealed to people outside the AI bubble because both it and DCTR were successful BEFORE the AI premiere. LO already sold gold BEFORE AI and it likely accounted for a significant number of peeps (after the first 2 weeks) getting interested enough in the song that they sampled and ultimately bought the entire album. If we’re saying that LO is not appealing to audiences outside of Idol, aren’t we also saying (to a certain degree) that DCTR is not appealing to audiences outside of Idol — because outside of the AI bubble, most people’s first exposure to DCTR would be through LO’s radio and TV play. Last I checked, DCTR has been consistently in the Top 10 and lately Top 20 since its debut, which I thought meant he must be breaking out into the general audience and not just the AI bubble. (Also, as per my previous post, there’s also lots of evidence of LO’s success on radio. Absent outright payola, no one’s holding a gun to program directors’ heads to play LO.)

    Of course, AI would give LO and DCTR a significant bump. AI has a much larger audience than the talk shows and SNL, etc. and it attracts the ‘low hanging’ fruit of invested fans for AI alums, so it’s only natural that there would be a significant sales bump from the DC pimpage. But the fact that there is a significant sales bump doesn’t mean that the appearances from SNL, Tonight Show, GMA, etc. didn’t bring in new fans either. I guess I was just taken aback by the sarcasm of “not the right audience/cough” comment and the notion that a new single needs to be released now (or rather, per Kirsten’s previous comments on this, back in late November (early December?)), notwithstanding the fact that it’s the middle of January and the song still has a bullet on 3 radio formats.

    Just to be clear, I’m not arguing whether LO was a good choice as the first single, but rather the vehemence of her view that it needs to be replaced and buried stat like it’s some stinker that’s making DC look bad. I think RCA will probably announce a new single in due time (probably sometime in February so that LO has had a 4-5 month cycle) but I don’t think there’s a huge hurry when the existing single still has bullets, right?

    ETA: I’m not mad at you Kirsten. I was in a really good mood this morning when I posted my response to you and just disagreed with your views and said so, so I apologize if it came off as angry.

  • Kirsten

    ITA there would have been responses regardless. But maybe the tone of the responses would have been different, thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s all. Thereà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s direct speech and then thereà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s sarcastic b*stard speech. LOL. Going for the sarcastic b*stard is well within everyoneà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s rights, and highly entertaining for me personally, but donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t do it and then get all à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Why are you all mad? I canà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t express an opinion around here?à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  when you get an explosion of heated replies. LMAO. Sorry Kirsten. You know I love you. But as Dr Phil would say, this ainà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t your first time at the rodeo.

    First of all, I was not trying to be a sarcastic b*stard. Second, I was not complaining about people’s reactions. I was merely explaining that I wasn’t trying to ruin anybody’s day. I was just having an opinion and that I felt that having an opinion should not ruin anybody’s else’s day. I think differences of opinion are fine and people ought not to take it personally (if the opinions are not aimed personally). So, I’m confused as to why I should be reminded me that this is not “my first time at the rodeo”. I’m not griping. Nor would I be even the slightest bit surprised to find myself being called all sorts of rotten names on certain fan boards (b*stard probably being one of the more minor ones) as this occurs everytime I don’t blow sunshine up Cook’s butt. But I don’t care. I can’t make everybody happy, nor should I even try. Some irrational fans will be offended by the strangest things, so I can’t be bothered even trying to placate them in the slightest. I have an opinion on things and I enjoy discussing it with rational people who have differences of opinions.

    And you know what, I’m happy. I’m not upset. So, Dr. Phil probably thinks I’m doing okay. Anybody who is upset about this discussion or hoping horrible things happen to me because I think “Light On” is underperforming probably needs to think about Dr. Phil and his “How’s that working out for you?”.

  • tinawina

    Although, Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m beginning to wonder if I should use Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s AI single sales as evidence of anything other than his popularity with Idol fans. Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s quite possible that it never extended beyond that group and my expectations for his ability to sell singles is wrong (see, I will admit when Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve made a mistake).

    Yeah, you may be right! But then again, he did manage to sell TOML. That song should have been dead ages ago. And his album sold without a hit song. So it’s looking like LO is the outlier here to me. We’ll see how long it lasts.

    Indeed, why are people all mad? Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s just an opinion about a reality show contestant. I still fail to see the big deal. Kirsten isnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t attacking anyone personally on the blog.

    Shhhiiiitttt, that question is bigger than all of us. Just the reaction is the same whether the statement is directed at Archies or Cookies, McPhee, Hicks or Daughtry lovers, Clay or Rueben. This is the nature of idol, and its totally predictable. So don’t act surprised when it happens. That’s all I’m saying. Not to stop saying what you want.

    OOOOKKKAAAAAAAAYYYYY, just read Kirsten’s response. Look, I was not trying to attack you. I was just saying that you had to have seen that coming, you did word things in an.. interesting way. That’s what happens when anyone does that. It has happened before and it will happen again. It shouldn’t cause the response, but it does. Every time. So… “explaining” how your opinion “shouldn’t” offend anyone is a little like… well the sky shouldn’t be blue! But it is. That’s all. Anyway, nevermind. LOL.

  • jenni

    Here’s my question on it and in light of the NFC/AFC championships this weekend, I will pepper in the football analogies.

    We can armchair quarterback all we want but be that as it may, LO is what we have to work with as a single right now. Could-a, should-a, would-a, it sort of is what it is and you play the game with the team you have, not necessarily the team you want. So whether it was the right choice of a single kind of doesn’t matter since it was the choice.

    But it’s gaining slowly, maybe not twenty yards a play with a brilliant Brady/Manning/Favre/Pick Your QB pass, but it’s moving up the field. So my question would be why, if it’s advancing, would he want to punt it away? We’re not in the last two minutes and going for a Hail Mary; the game has really just begun and there’s plenty of opportunity to go for a big play later. Maybe LO won’t be a touchdown but it’s still gaining yards. Eventually it’ll stop but why pull it before it does?

    It might not be a touchdown, but it’s gold so I think that’s gotta at least count as a field goal and every point helps.

    Okay, I’m not sure that made ANY sense but that’s just how I see it. :)

  • rebekah141

    Keel, those where my exact thoughts on the matter of the itunes bump. I saw it far more as a matter of audience size as opposed to LOs appeal to an AI audience.

  • Sydia

    Wow…LO is doing really well. It seems that radio play and recent TV. promo, and appearances lined up just right. I’m glad. El Paso is playing him quite a bit, just as much as DA’s Crush was once played. I came out of lurking today, because it is a great day to be a Cook fan. Good news on all fronts. Negative spins on the “lack of success” of the single are fun to read on a day like this.

  • oceana

    Hmm, well it seemed to me that LO was steadily rising on the charts and in airplay before AI started up again. So I don’t go with the theory that only AI audiences like it.

    It’s not the best song on the cd and yet it’s doing well. It’s wonderful that there are so many good songs yet to be heard on radio. Unlike many cds that only have a few good songs (sometimes only 1 or 2), DCTR is full of them. A lot of artists could only dream of this.

    Whether LO was or wasn’t the best choice for first single is simply unimportant now. It’s been frustrating to some of us who want other songs to be heard, but bottom line, the cd is selling very well, and a new single will be here soon to divert us from this endless discussion. LOL.

    Meanwhile I hope David and his band are having a good trip today to the middle east.

  • anijsch

    Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s not the best song on the cd and yet ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s doing well.

    Every times it comes up i feel like a LO is a child with had at first problems to follow in class, but worked his way up to the be near the Top, but then comes someone and remind him that he is not as good as the others, because he has been so slow at the beginning.

    Whether LO was or wasnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t the best choice for first single is simply unimportant now.

    I totally agree.

  • Hazehel

    Hazhel, Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m really starting to like you. You seem like the kind of person it would be fun to hang out in a casino with. LOL.

    LOL, I don’t think you’d want me in a casino, I always lose gambling. But I’m reasonably happy with my prediction. With a wide enough margin of error (say ~ 2.5K), 30K is a reasonable prediction given previous trends. This is an odd week for David Cook sales-wise, and I’m not sure if HDD can predict it accurately.

    The last two runner-ups managed to move between 300-400K units. Blake started out with a largish fan base,

    I don’t think Blake had the fan base that David has, as I remember it, his fan base was much weaker than Archie’s. Ignore the single sales completely, just consider the album sales. The first week sales of Blake’s album was 98K, while David Archuleta managed to shift 166K. Blake’s album ended up selling just over 3 times the first week sales (the bulk of which was sold in the first two months), while David Archuleta sales is now at ~3.5 times of the first week sales, and weakening considerably. The total will probably end up just over 4 times the first week sales if the album is allowed to slowly die (which won’t happen of course, I suspect Archie will sell more, perhaps eventually selling close to Jordin’s numbers). When you then add into consideration that Blake’s first week sales might have been slightly artificially boosted by the start of Christmas rush, you might not actually see a great deal of significant difference in their sales patterns. For sure “Crush” must have helped shift a few CDs, but not really as much as you might think, especially when you consider that the single is such a big seller.

    David Archuleta will no doubt continue to sell with further promotion and single releases, whereas Blake Lewis’ album essentially died after the first cople of months. I don’t remember that Blake ever had a lot of promotion. The disparity in promotion and further single releases will be largely responsible for the difference in final total sales, not “Crush”.

  • Trina

    The main reason I don’t think HDD is too far off is by Friday they already had the AI bump sales to factor in. He might just barely edge into the Top 10 or come close but I don’t think they underestimated him THAT much. These early updates are always good to both he and Archie.

  • May

    Although, Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m beginning to wonder if I should use Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s AI single sales as evidence of anything other than his popularity with Idol fans. Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s quite possible that it never extended beyond that group

    I don’t think so. The sales of Light On were never very striking, but they were fairly constant over the past few months. If they were fueled by his Idol fans only, then I would have expected a much different trajectory…eg. 200K sales the 1st week, followed by rapid drop with no future recovery. Instead, the song had a modest start, dropped dramatically over the next few weeks then recovered and started to gain momentum. In fact, the general audience might actually like this song more than the Idol audience!

    I know this is not in any way an exact science, but I am curious if you have any thoughts on why DAà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s single has sold so incredibly well, but although his album has sold well in todayà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s market, it hasnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t sold as well as DCà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s, while DCà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s single (from album) has sold reasonably well but not anywhere near DAà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s.

    LKO9, I’m not Kirsten but both of Cook’s singles should probably be considered if you want to discuss the reasons for differences in album sales. I think I’m going to stay away from that discussion. :unsure_tb:

  • weareallinnocent

    Yeah, I was wrong in my “train of thought” as I missed the Weakend update from HDD. But I’m sticking with my belief that Cook will break Top 10. A lot of number ranges in the predictions were exactly the same, so imo that bodes well for HDD being wrong (maybe even by a lot.!) But, they don’t have to be wrong by too much really, considering the weak week. :-)

    What’s up with Twilight and Notorious being so low at 36% reporting? Is there a big push or sale at some vendor that will explain, assuming they both recover to the Top 10 as predicted?

  • http://myspace.com/girlgeek mj

    I’m moderating posts now.

    Either stay on topic (your opinion of how and why your fellow posters post is NOT the topic.) or your post will be zapped.

  • Kirsten

    I know this is not in any way an exact science, but I am curious if you have any thoughts on why DAà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s single has sold so incredibly well, but although his album has sold well in todayà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s market, it hasnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t sold as well as DCà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s, while DCà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s single (from album) has sold reasonably well but not anywhere near DAà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s.

    I think if you look at DA’s sales and compare him to other pop acts with a similar track record, I think his album is selling about where you would expect. He’s only had one hit, and I wouldn’t even call that a mega-hit (mega-hits are selling over 2xplat right now). I think that Jive is taking a similar tack with Archie that they did with Jordin. Generally, AI artists define their persona on AI and then try to follow through with an album. Failing to do so leaves consumers confused. Their fans are unhappy and other people don’t bother checking them out because they assume that they are the same as they were on the show (and they weren’t already fans for a reason).

    But, Jive decided that Jordin and Archie’s existing AI persona’s were a hard sale, so they had to be changed. And I have to agree with Jive there. While I think Cookie came off of AI with a well-defined, marketable persona, I don’t think Archie or Jordin did. Sure, they had their avid fans, but big ballads don’t move a lot of units unless your last name is Groban. Especially when many of those ballads are older than you are. So Jive had to walk a fine line of re-inventing them while not alienating the entire existing fan base. In a way, Archie had it easier because I don’t think Jordin had a very big fan base to start with. In other ways, he had it harder because I think the media viewed him as being an inarticulate victim of a rabid stage father. That’s not good persona to start with. So, I think that Jive did a lot of building from the ground up (not to take anything away from Jordin or Archie who are both mega talented. As of course, is Cook).

    I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t think Blake had the fan base that David has, as I remember it, his fan base was much weaker than Archieà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s. Ignore the single sales completely, just consider the album sales. The first week sales of Blakeà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s album was 98K, while David Archuleta managed to shift 166K.

    Ah, but is that because Blake had the smaller original fan base or because Jive did a better job picking and promoting Archie’s lead-off single? That’s why I think it’s better to look at the pre-single data. Blake did comparable to Archie with iTunes Idol song sales and Blake seemed to be the most popular guy on the tour (granted, the tour wasn’t as popular). So, he was pretty popular. But RCA picked a terrible single for him (let’s not even discuss the stupid video), released it shortly before the album dropped and it went relatively nowhere. His promo opportunities were as good as what Archie had and didn’t he even get to sing on the New Year’s Eve thing? I credit the single with the greater opening album numbers (better single released well in advance of the album with a decent video), but others might disagree. Season 6 really was an outlier. Of course, I could try blaming Blake’s hideous album cover for his numbers. What were they thinking?

    I actually have a question about that. It seems normal to expect that there will be a lull in radio exposure between singles, while one is dropping and the other is still being added. It also seems normal for album sales to drop during that time because of the decrease in visibility. Is my assumption here correct? Please note that I am not challenging your opinion in any way, but trying to learn about the normal ebb and flow of album sales.

    The trick with radio singles is to release the new single just as the other one is finished peaking so that they meet in the middle (one going up and the other down) so that the artist’s overall AI stays about the same throughout. IMO, Jive messed up by allowing “Crush” to fall too far down the charts before getting “ALTNOY” going. I think it’s led to it being more difficult to get radio to play the song and has made Archie’s drop in sales more significant. It also leads to his album being more difficult to find in stores (no longer amongst the bestseller) which makes it harder to reverse the sales slip. Granted, Christmas kind of got in the way and they may have some plan. But, still, it looks like they, I don’t really know much about football terms, but I’m sure there is one that would be appropriate? Their quarterback got sacked? Intercepted? Drank a bad batch of gatorade?

  • americanidolfan102

    Just to let all of you guys know
    DCTR is out of the top 10 on iTunes but LO seems to be keeping strong at number 12
    LO has also been in the z100 top 20 for a couple weeks now and is currently at #19

  • sunchick

    THis is an interesting discussion. Here are my two cents, which I think are worth throwing in, because I have a high opinion of my opinion that way, though I might not be a market analysis expert. Also, promise not to get my panties in a bunch. That said….

    Yeah, not really buying Kirsten’s hypothesis. Nothing personal, chica. I just don’t follow the logic. First of all, LO, as I recall, was like the top stream on AOL when it debuted. Someone must have been listening. A lot. On AOL. Also, if Cook’s various TV appearances outside of the AI bubble did nothing to sell LO either to consumers or radio programming types, it would have dropped like a rock from radio and iTunes and not been able to climb back up, like, ever. See: Blake, Break Anotha. (Not a slam against Blake, who I actually kind of dig.) Big fanbase, a la Cook, no huge Z100 Jordin and Archie-esque debut but rather a Popeaters debut, a la Cook, various morning talk show gigs and I think maybe Leno or Ellen or something, a la Cook…single went nowhere, not on Top40, not on HAC, not much more than a blip on iTunes. THis did not happen with LO. Only difference betwen Cook and Blake, then, to account for the difference in the success of their singles is that a) Cook won and b) Cook did SNL. So, winning AI or appearing on SNL or the appeal of LO vs. Break Anotha made the difference. One of those things. But there’s no way to say it’s a and not b or c or a combo thereof. I’m pretty sure Blake would have been thrilled with a chance for a gold single before he appeared on AI last season, much less one platinum and one gold. So a big AI fanbase who know that your single is out does not a gold or platinum single guarantee. This simply isn’t a situation where LO sold the first week, and then didn’t sell at all until the AI 8 pimpage. As I recall, LO did quite well, for example, in the big ol iTunes card gifting spike after the holidays. Can you with any type of certainty extrapolate that those buyers were AI fans? Or did they hear the song on TV somewhere else or on the radio and use their shiny new giftcard to finally buy it? All of the above? No, this is a situation where it had a modest debut, was a slow but steady grower on radio, sales grew pretty much in proportion to radio impressions with a few spikes here and there in relation to various tv appearances, and then got a nice little boost from Christmas iTunes single rush and the AI 8 appearance. WHich, IMO, doesn’t jive with what Kirsten was postulating.

  • primeminister

    I agree with Kristen. What is taking Jive so long to release and promote ALTNOY?

  • Jolene

    Yeah, Sunchick, I agree with your post 100%. I think LO grew very organically – not at a dazzling rate or to incredible heights, perhaps, but it did grow outside the AI fanbase. It certainly did not show a fanbase only trajectory, quite the opposite.

    DCTR is out of the top 10 on iTunes but LO seems to be keeping strong at number 12

    That’s interesting, and somewhat unexpected, isn’t it? I would think a song getting a bump from a single airing of the AI commercial would have a more abrupt rise and fall than the full album. Anyone has an idea why LO is holding steady while DCTR is showing regular post-bump movement?

    What is taking Jive so long to release and promote ALTNOY?

    ALTNOY had an add date of 01/06, no? So it has already been released, and there was a mediabase ad for it that week, IIRC.

  • Kirsten

    Also, if Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s various TV appearances http://mjsbigblog.com/monday-morning-mediabase-update-011909.htmoutside of the AI bubble did nothing to sell LO either to consumers or radio programming types, it would have dropped like a rock from radio and iTunes and not been able to climb back up, like, ever. See: Blake, Break Anotha.

    Well, I don’t like “Light On”, but I don’t think it’s the disasterous misstep that was “Break Anotha”. Man, the bad decisions with Blake’s album were legion. All IMO, of course.

    In my opinion, “Light On” is a plodder. Sure, the television appearances helped move units, but not as much as they should have (IMO). Sure, the song has fans and not all of them are from AI. The problem is that the only clear “skyrocket” has come from the AI appearance and I’m not impressed. I want more (I’m like Ariel and Oliver that way).

    Here is my hypothesis:
    1) Cook has the proven ability to move units including singles (evidence: AI singles/TOML and the movement of Declaration and CBTM based on very little exposure. Although, this past week has made me wonder about the AI itunes singles being an indicator).
    2) 19M and RCA have done a lot of work to get good promo opportunities for “Light On” so the song isn’t suffering from under exposure.
    3) While “Light On” has fans, it simply doesn’t appear to appeal to a lot of people. It’s a micro-hit.
    4) Promo costs money so don’t get sentimental. If you can get better return on investment, dump the plodder and get something that can get better results. Sure, moving 2 yards per play is still moving forward, but if you can score 3 touch downs in the same amount of time it take you to plod your way to one field goal. Increase your likelyhood of winning, dump the plodding quarterback and go with the star.
    5) I’m not impressed that AI fans like an Idol’s song. That audience is too fickle. The fan base needs expanding (but maybe LO mainly appeals to the Idol faithful).

    I’m not saying the Cook isn’t moving albums. I’m not saying that Cook sucks. I’m not saying everybody hates “Light On”. I’m not saying there are no hits on the album. I’m just saying that “Light On” isn’t worth the effort. IMO.

    And thanks for your two cents. It’s always fun to read other’s opinion.

  • frogcooke

    well as of yesterday ALTNOY was #54 on mediabase.

  • soundscene

    I agree with Kristen. What is taking Jive so long to release and promote ALTNOY?

    It’s almost top 50 on mediabase. It was released a couple weeks ago, and David is doing promotion now. Sundance, Radio Disney, etc. We don’t know what else he has coming up. The song is a second single; it’s not moving at lightening pace, but for every song that goes as fast as Leona’s “I Will Be” there are more songs that go at ALTNOY’s pace or slower. This isn’t like “Crush”–there’s no big debut or excitement about a first single. So it’s not moving as fast. And the early pace of a single doesn’t define how it’ll eventually do. “Leavin'”, “One Step at a Time”, “Gives You Hell”, “Better In Time”, “Forever”–all these songs moved slower at first.

    The timing of ALTNOY was tricky. “Crush” peaked in November, but there was all of December that prevented much of anything not by Britney Spears from taking off. So releasing ALTNOY sooner wouldn’t have done much, IMO. It would still be taking its time. And I really don’t think DA is at the point where most stations are going to play both ALTNOY and Crush at the same time. Crush had to get out of the way before ALTNOY could move up. It’s not a speed demon, but I don’t see that as a problem. DA’s album wasn’t going to stay on the Best Sellers shelves this month no matter what–I don’t see how that was possible, regardless of what Jive did. Jordin had Tattoo peaking in early January and she wasn’t on the Best Seller shelves in January either.

  • cookcricket

    David Cook:
    à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Time of My Lifeà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ : 1 AC (1)
    à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Light Onà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ : ^7 HAC (9), ^23 Pop (24), ^30 AC (27)

    I’m personally happy for the troops that LO is still currently the single.

    ETA: And I’m glad it’s top ten in one of the formats at just the right time.

  • http://www.myspace.com/gwendolyndiane GwendolynD

    Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m personally happy for the troops that LO is still currently the single.

    You’ve got a point there. I imagine this will go over well on the USO tour.

  • 123abc456

    I must have been living under a rock or just did not track how AI increased the sales for contestants when it started to air because I was pleasantly surprised at the increased sales numbers. I was completely expecting the big January drop and really did not expect any light or increase until maybe February.

    I have always felt that LO was a good song for the troops, it has a relevant message and it must resonate with them. I hope the boys(David Cook and his band) enjoy entertaining the troops and are safe.

  • daenarys

    Boat anchor, plodder, “micro-hit”, I love that LO keeps debunking these theories week after week. LOL.

    It’s only been 3 months. That song will hit platinum. There, I said it.

  • tinawina

    this is a situation where it had a modest debut, was a slow but steady grower on radio, sales grew pretty much in proportion to radio impressions with a few spikes here and there in relation to various tv appearances, and then got a nice little boost from Christmas iTunes single rush and the AI 8 appearance.

    Wow sunchick, you just summed up how I see LO! It chuggs along as the moderate hit it was always destined to be. It gets a spike every once in a while, but that’s about it.

    . Only difference between Cook and Blake, then, to account for the difference in the success of their singles is that a) Cook won and b) Cook did SNL.

    Now that I don’t agree with. Cook got 3 major things that Blake didn’t get: 1. SNL 2. Walmart Soundcheck/AOL sessions and 3. A national commercial that played his song. So he did get more exposure. Not that it would have made a difference with Blake, because no one was buying that song. Still, LO’s sales patterns have always adhered pretty closely to its airplay.

    Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s a micro-hit.

    HA! I’m going to start using that term from now on. Micro-hit! Perfect!

    Either stay on topic (your opinion of how and why your fellow posters post is NOT the topic.) or your post will be zapped.

    Sorry mj. :sad_tb:

    Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s only been 3 months. That song will hit platinum. There, I said it.

    I would be shocked if that happened. Happy, but shocked. I’m seeing 750K max.

  • Hazehel

    Blake did comparable to Archie with iTunes Idol song sales and Blake seemed to be the most popular guy on the tour (granted, the tour wasnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t as popular).

    Well, it wasn’t a great year. If David Archuleta had been competing that year, he would have easily beaten Jordin or Blake, and by a wide margin. I certainly don’t remember that considerable howls of anguish and shock when Blake Lewis lost like what we saw for David Archuleta.

    Comparing iTunes sales is a bit tricky, unless you know something I don’t, I’m not sure how you determine that their sales were comparable. First, we never knew how well David Archuleta sold, the numbers weren’t released during the competition. Correct me if I am wrong, but I think “Imgaine” went to number 1 on the iTunes chart (unofficially of course) and I should think “Imagine” easily out-sold “You Give Love A Bad name” (did it even crack the top 10 when it was released on iTunes?). Second, we never knew how well or poorly Blake Lewis sold during the competition either, the downloads were only available on the official American Idol site (and I suspect the sales weren’t great, can’t imagine why else they would abandon this idea), and not on iTunes until the competition was over. All indications however suggest that David Archuleta’s Idol songs far outsold Blake Lewis’.

  • http://myspace.com/girlgeek mj

    Sorry mj.

    It’s ok. My post was a “this moment forward” kind of thing. It was mostly for the lurky-loos who were beginning to post. Right on time, I might add.

  • SpenserJ

    Here are my two cents, which I think are worth throwing in, because I have a high opinion of my opinion that way,

    Sunchick – this totally cracked me up.

    I think LO grew very organically – not at a dazzling rate or to incredible heights, perhaps, but it did grow outside the AI fanbase. It certainly did not show a fanbase only trajectory, quite the opposite.

    Not picking on you Jolene, just feel like having a little fun with the devil’s advocate thing here…. I have a theory, and it may be totally off base, but I’ll throw it out there anyway.

    Admittedly, I know nothing of these HDD or whatever-scan numbers. I have no clue what a spike on iTunes or amazon may mean. I’m also completely confused about what may or may not be a “hit” based on total sales numbers and downloads. So, suffice it to say I have no expertise in this area.

    However, my theory is that just like we have no way of knowing that LO isn’t picking up fans outside the AI hardcore fanbase, we also have no idea that it is. By virtue of simple math – there are a few hundred million people in the US, and 20 million or so of them allegedly watch AI. So, when a CD or a single sells a few hundred thousand copies or downloads, we can’t even say that they’ve captured the bulk of the viewing audience, let alone the rest of America.

    I would say that outside of the handful of obvious exceptions, most AI contestants are not hugely popular outside of the AI bubble. More people are definitely fans of the TV show than they are of any particular contestant. And, I’m not directing that at Cook alone – I believe that about nearly all of them – including all of my own personal favorites.

    When you immerse yourself in the AI culture like we tend to do here at MJ’s, I think you have a totally different perspective of a contestant’s popularity than the average AI viewer, and a vastly different perspective than the average American.

    This is of course merely a sociological type observation, not an indictment of any particular contestant’s career. There are also many AI peeps who’ve been afforded the opportunity to make an adequate living for themselves practicing the art that they love. And I’m of the belief that that is a perfectly acceptable way for them to measure the success of their own lives.

    And again, this a general theory about AI contestants, not just the most recent winner.

  • http://myspace.com/saltwatercures pj

    I have nothing to add, because I really don’t care about this stuff. I do want to shout out to Spense, though! *waves* (Sorry MJ).

  • 123abc456

    Lurky-loos. Never heard that term before. Is that a dig?

  • Keel

    4) Promo costs money so donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t get sentimental. If you can get better return on investment, dump the plodder and get something that can get better results. Sure, moving 2 yards per play is still moving forward, but if you can score 3 touch downs in the same amount of time it take you to plod your way to one field goal. Increase your likelyhood of winning, dump the plodding quarterback and go with the star.

    But what if RCA does think they are getting an excellent return on their LO investment? I get that LO is not a huge runaway hit, but it’s got to account for some of DCTR’s sales, right? I mean it is the only single out — and I really doubt fans who know of Cook mostly because of Magic Rainbow are moving a ton of units — so it would stand to reason that LO has piqued enough interest that some folks have investigated the album further and have ended up buying the album based on exposure to LO. So even if you think that a measly 10% of DCTR’s current sales are attributable to LO fans taking a further look at DCTR, using a rough total of 850k albums sold, that’s 85,000 albums that LO was responsible for selling. Those 85,000 albums from a price standpoint would generate revenues equal to 850,000 singles sold (assuming a low $10/album price), which is on top of the additional 500,000 LO singles sold really gets you to a point where LO has made RCA a ton of money for promoting something that they would be promoting anyway as part of the album promotion. So, again, I disagree that LO is moving 2 yards per play. I think it’s more accurate to say that LO has consistently gotten DCTR first down after first down through going on 8(?) weeks of sales and soon enough, it’ll get DCTR a touchdown (platinum). I think the problem is that you really can’t separate DCTR’s performance from LO’s performance when LO is THE single out right now that is helping people get exposed to the fact that David Cook has an album out. If DCTR is doing well (which, so far it seems to be), then some of that success must be attributed to the single that is promoting the album. There are enough bigger hit singles out there (based on download numbers) that have the weird disconnect of not helping move the mothership album, so it’s not as though LO’s performance is what every single is expected to do. See for example, So What (monster radio hit) and Pink’s album sales (and I’m talking before the second single, Sober, was released). Her album sales were not necessarily disappointing but I was surprised she didn’t move more albums based on So What’s ubiquity.

    As an aisde, here’s my personal theory on why certain singles move albums and other don’t, other than the eccentricities of certain genres. LO is in fact a good indicator (as Cook would say, a median) of what’s in the rest of the album, whereas So What, IMO, did not reflect accurately what was in the rest of Funhouse. (I like Funhouse, btw, but I was expecting a much different feel to the rest of the album based on So What.) Also, although Pink’s more in the pop side of the pop rock realm than Cook, who’s also pop rock in DCTR but more on the rock edge, they aren’t separated by much in the genre department. But this is all a BTW.

  • SpenserJ

    I do want to shout out to Spense, though! *waves*

    Smooches!

    And, LOL, this is my first time ever in the Mediabase thread, so I have no idea why I injected myself into this discussion other than I felt like talking about something.

    (Not that I don’t think your numbers are important Kirsten – it’s just that I don’t typically understand them. And, I thought your football analogies where quite good.)

  • lefty

    There are also many AI peeps whoà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve been afforded the opportunity to make an adequate living for themselves practicing the art that they love. And Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m of the belief that that is a perfectly acceptable way for them to measure the success of their own lives.

    This is so true. I imagine many, if not most, of them feel this way too.

  • http://myspace.com/saltwatercures pj

    Oh, yes. I know this is one of the most beloved threads. I didn’t mean any disrespect. :-)

    I just mean that I’ve given up on tracking radio play and sales. Perhaps its because none of my faves really do well. ;-) It doesn’t stop me from liking them, though. Nor does it make me like the hugely successful Idols just for that reason.

  • SpenserJ

    Oh, yes. I know this is one of the most beloved threads. I didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t mean any disrespect. :-)

    Tee Hee, I wasn’t trying to get you in trouble pumpkin.

    It doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t stop me from liking them, though. Nor does it make me like the hugely successful Idols just for that reason.

    I’m one hundred percent with you there kiddo. I’m totally certain that Taylor’s second CD will do no better than his first, but I’m going to buy it anyway. And, 8 billion people can buy Daughtry or Carrie CD’s, and I’ll still think they both bore me to tears. I guess that just furthers the point that my opinion means very little :lol_wp:

  • weareallinnocent

    Here’s what I don’t understand.

    Promotion costs, but presumably promotion by 19alphabet on AI costs the alphabet little. (Bottom line, here, not line item budgeting analysis.) Even if I’m wrong though, that promotion irrefutably reached new peeps who’d either not heard LO and/or did not know he’d released an album or whatever. Instead of assuming those peeps weren’t paying attention, we assume 19 failed and needed to target its energies elsewhere to reach those peeps in another way. But, we assert that every other way 19 tried, it failed to reach its audience.

    So, tell me again, what’s the problem with tapping a market through promotion on AI? And, why devalue those fans as fickle if we’re going to suggest that, if anyone first learned of LO or DCTR by watching the AI premiere, 19 needed to do better market targeting to reach them in some other way?

  • hardkandy

    He didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t have to start off with his best single, but that doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t mean he should start with one of the worst ones. There are such things as à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“mediumà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  or à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“third bestà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  or something.

    Yeah this I agree with. LO is really one of my least favorites in the album… and while it is impressive that he is selling so well without an outstanding first single, I can’t shake the thought that he really probably would’ve sold tons more if he had a better first single.
    But oh well, I think it’s just time for the new single now I think. Good for LO if it keeps getting bumps, but I’m personally tired of it… and I want a new single to hear on the radio, and a new music video ASAP.

  • CathyMK

    So, tell me again, whatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s the problem with tapping a market through promotion on AI? And, why devalue those fans as fickle if weà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re going to suggest that, if anyone first learned of LO or DCTR by watching the AI premiere, 19 needed to do better market targeting to reach them in some other way?

    I’ve been wondering this myself. Both last year’s finale and this year’s premiere reached approximately 30 million people each, or about 10% of the people in this country. That’s a huge audience by anyone’s standards. If 10% of those people buy an Idol’s album, that’s 3 million sales, a mega-hit in today’s market. So, I honestly don’t understand why everyone’s so worried about selling to people who don’t watch AI. I mean, seriously, an even bigger percentage of the population catches an episode at one time or another, and you pretty much have to live under a rock to not hear about who the winner and runner up are. So why the emphasis on outside-of-AI fans? I wasn’t even a fan of AI myself and had never even watched a full episode before last year’s semifinals. I started watching because nothing else was on, and stayed watching because I enjoyed some of the contestants. I’ve bought music by a few Idols from various seasons since last year’s finale. I’m watching Season 8 cause y’all are fun to hang out with, and it’s become a nice common interest for 3 generations of my family. So, how do you count someone like me? I’m not a long-time. hardcore fan, but I’m in the “bubble” now. It seems to me like there’s a bit of a chicken and egg thing that goes on here- people who watch AI do it, at least in part, because they like the music they hear and are also the people who would be more likely to buy that music even if they didn’t watch AI. I think that with a show as ubiquitous as AI, it’s also really hard to draw a definite line between those inside and outside the bubble, since the bubble’s shell is so permeable. So, how do you even measure whether an album is selling only to AI watchers? And why does it matter, as long as it’s selling consistently?

  • tinawina

    So, how do you even measure whether an album is selling only to AI watchers?

    That’s a great question. Unfortunately, I have no answers. LOL. We know he’s past hardcore fans in album sales, because those tend to buy in the first couple of weeks. The question is, how much of what he’s been selling since then is to casual idol fans and people who didn’t know him from idol at all? I think the assumption being made is that they have to be the former because LO is presumably not strong enough to pull in much of the latter.

    An aside: How do you define casual idol fans anyway? Is someone who watched a couple of episodes a casual fan? Someone who saw youtube videos and that’s it? Is someone who maybe saw the finale but never voted? Is that really the same as someone who watched all season and just didn’t follow him once it was over? Who knows.

    In any case though, someone made a good point upthread. In the end it doesn’t matter, because a sale is a sale. Also, since there have been past idols who have not been very successful at pulling in much beside their hardcore fans, should he get more credit for the fact that he’s managed to do just that? The casual fan is not likely to just buy anything, hence the name casual fan (hey! I just defined it! lol). On the other hand, there is merit to the idea that those will run out eventually, and DC has to move past the AI people eventually if he hasn’t already.

    I think I just confused myself. LOL. In the end, I don’t think we can answer this right away. Only time will tell on this one.

  • Kirsten

    And, I thought your football analogies where quite good.

    Yay! I was afraid I might be talking nonsense. Nice to see you again, SpenserJ.

    So, tell me again, whatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s the problem with tapping a market through promotion on AI?

    Nothing. 19Alphabet would be stupid to do otherwise. Obviously, AI fans already like the contestants (for the most part). They obviously have no built in biases against Idols. So, this is the first, cheapest and easiest way to to market. It’s just so easy, I’m not going to do cartwheels for 19M because they thought of it. Sum up: Stupid not to take advantage of it. Not a real indicator of much other than that you didn’t offend the AI fan base.

    Promotion costs, but presumably promotion by 19alphabet on AI costs the alphabet little.

    But that’s not the only place they’ve spent money promoting. So, make those promo dollars count, I Say.

    And, why devalue those fans as fickle

    Well, because, they kind of are. Other than Kelly, name one out of the other 81 Idol contestants that sold more on their second post-AI album than on their first. Pretty hard. Ruben couldn’t do it. Clay couldn’t do it. Kimberley couldn’t do it. Josh couldn’t do it. Fantasia couldn’t do it. Bo couldn’t do it. Even mighty Carrie couldn’t do it. Let’s forget all the Idols that couldn’t even get a second album. And look how fast fan favourites are all but forgotten. People who were beloved on the show who can barely get a gig on cruise ship. People who would probably get a “Who?” even here on an AI fan site. People whose sales didn’t even reach 50K for their first album. The stats are very grim.

    Every Idol ends up with an ardent fan base. People that would even buy albums of them singing Gregorian Chants or making farm animal noises. Those fans will likely be with the Idol until they die. But for most people, it’s just a TV show and their old favourite will quickly be replaced by their new favourite. That’s fine. Watching this show doesn’t mean that you pledge your allorgence to somebody forever. Sometimes, a TV show is just a TV show.

    So, I think you need to appeal to music fans outside of the show. People who might have a longer attention span. Plus, only 30 million people watch the show. That is less than 10% of the US population. Why ignore the other 90%? That’s a big market to tap out there.

  • SpenserJ

    So, how do you even measure whether an album is selling only to AI watchers? And why does it matter, as long as ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s selling consistently?

    That was my point actually. I don’t think you can measure it either way. And, I don’t think that it does matter. At all. I just thought it was an interesting discussion point. My theory of the popularity of AI contestants in general doesn’t matter either. I just felt like sharing it. I suppose what matters to the individual artist is whether or not they sell enough to earn back the record company’s money, and continue making music. Of course, I don’t believe we ever really know what that threshold is until one of them doesn’t meet it.

    I think that with a show as ubiquitous as AI, ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s also really hard to draw a definite line between those inside and outside the bubble, since the bubbleà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s shell is so permeable.

    Precisely. I move in and out of the bubble with the seasons myself.

    We know heà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s past hardcore fans in album sales, because those tend to buy in the first couple of weeks.

    See, this is where I get kind of lost. Mostly because I don’t believe we have enough evidence to prove that is indeed a fact. And, I’m not saying that it isn’t true. I’m just saying that we can’t necessarily prove that it is. For instance, if you define hardcore fan as someone who spends the summer reading message boards, joining the fansites and counting down the days to the CD’s release, then I agree that it’s probably true.

    But, someone could also have been a huge fan of David’s on the show, then not really followed his path after that, under the assumption that they’d hear about it when it came out. And, maybe last week was the first they’d heard of it. They’re still a David Cook fan, and an AI fan, but they didn’t buy within the first two weeks. So, while they can’t be counted as “hardcore”, they can be counted as being inside the AI bubble.

    Again, this doesn’t matter either, because a sale is indeed a sale. I just find it interesting.

    On the other hand, there is merit to the idea that those will run out eventually, and DC has to move past the AI people eventually if he hasnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t already.

    Agreed. My theory in general is that only maybe 3 or 4 out of the 70 or so top 12 contestants we’ve grown to love have actually proved they can do that.

    It doesn’t matter in any practical sense. It’s just my way of pointing out that while I love the show and think it’s great TV, I just don’t personally think that it or many of its contestants have made the huge impact on the music business that some other people think it has. It’s just an opinion. Mileage and all that good stuff :)

  • sleepyinsomniac

    So here’s my question. What exactly is this “he should be selling more” with another single in terms of values? Are we saying he should have a platinum selling single? And that the record should be platinum now as well had they gone with another single? Or as with most of these things are these just conjecture? Because from what I’m reading, I’m getting the impression that people think LO is a failure in relation to some imaginary numbers of a what-could-have-been single. Frankly, I think that all of these are just opinions. Some may make more sense than the others but in the end, unless someone can show me numbers and facts, I am listening but not necessarily believing. And that my friends is my segue to sharing my own 1 Philippine Peso (which according to the latest figures is equivalent to your American .02)

    Rather than being an anchor for DCTR, LO is actually behaving in the best possible way a single can behave IMO. It is actually acting as a propeller. LO has around 500K in sales right now. DCTR has around 900K. My theory, people heard LO and were interested enough to check it out. In the process they heard the rest of the record. Having decided that they like some of the songs even better than LO, they purchase the entire album rather than just LO. Hence, LO is propelling sales rather than hindering it. Of course the other side of the coin would be that the sales would be even better if people were hearing a better single because more people will be checking DCTR out. But who’s to say that most of those people will just not decide to buy the “better single” and not the record?

    I don’t think that RCA is infallible. And time will tell if LO is the right or wrong single. But right now, LO is already gold which from what I understand is not necessarily typical behavior for a rock single. DCTR is nearing platinum in an economy where very few records are reaching platinum. LO is getting played a lot in radio. LO is about to spend more than a week just below the Top 10 of itunes. To me, it means that the single is not burning up the charts but it is not crashing out of it as fast either. Call it whatever you want, but a hit is a hit is a hit.

    David Cook has a long career ahead of him. His record has been out barely 3 months. He has not even toured in support of this record yet. From what I can see so far, he’s barely scratched the surface yet he’s already done so much more than many other artists. For me, that’s amazing however which way you cut it. And LO, until hard numbers show me that it’s crashing and burning out, is doing well. Of course, YMMV and I’m sure it will.

  • weareallinnocent

    LOL

    Well, for starters Kirsten, the question wasn’t “why devalue AI fans as fickle?” The question was “why devalue those fans as fickle if weà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re going to suggest that, if anyone first learned of LO or DCTR by watching the AI premiere, 19 needed to do better marketing targeted to reach them in some other way?” That question remains unanswered, but that’s ok.

    As you very clearly assert in one of your earlier posts on this thread, 19 didn’t “ignore the other 90%” of the population. Instead, you point out that they made multiple efforts to reach those peeps — through internet, morning talk shows, late night talk shows, day time talk shows, radio play and radio talk, sports events, etc, etc, etc — and never reached an audience. (I don’t agree the efforts were unsuccessful, but I’m not debating that point right now.)

    No offense, seriously, but the more I read, the more I can’t escape that the analysis rises and falls with the notion that LO is not a great song. From that point, notwithstanding that whether it is or is not derives from an undeniably subjective assessment, all sorts of broad stroke conclusions are drawn. These include, among others, that 1) 19’s marketing strategies are poor, 2) the song should not have been released, and 3) DCTR is selling less than it should, or would otherwise (loosely and speculatively defined.)

    And, now, a bump in sales post-AI premiere and Kimmel concert reflects what? Near as I can tell from this conversation: 1) 19’s marketing strategies are poor, 2) the song should not have been released, and 3) DCTR is selling less than it should, or would otherwise (loosely and speculatively defined.)

    Sorry, you lost me. But, no worries, cuz you really don’t need me. LOL

    ETA: My mileage is the same as the sleepy insomniac’s. :-)

  • blissful

    Delurking…

    So, tell me again, whatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s the problem with tapping a market through promotion on AI? And, why devalue those fans as fickle if weà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re going to suggest that, if anyone first learned of LO or DCTR by watching the AI premiere, 19 needed to do better market targeting to reach them in some other way?

    I don’t think there’s anything wrong with this, because personally I think Cook had a HUGE AI following, being able to absorb some of the votes of discarded contestants. IMO, this is why he moved so many itunes singles that final week (and with Ryan reminding us every five minutes they would soon be unavailable). Yes, many of those were of the “fickle” variety so it would be foolish of 19 not use AI promos as a reminder. They should continue and hopefully they will become more loyal.

    To be honest, I think the majority of his sales have been AI related (hardcore, casual, super casual) and he is slowly starting to expand his base with the growing radio play. Another single with greater impact, the college tour, and future promos will add to it.

    RCA is doing what they should be doing..going after those who know his name first and slowly adding the the other 90%.

    Even mighty Carrie couldnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t do it.

    Carrie is a superstar whose second album sales are reflective of the overall decreasing album sales. The same will *probably* happen with Daughtry. Both are beyond fickle idol fanbases. IMO.

    back to lurking…

  • jpfan

    Just adding a few comments about HDD. Their original prediction that Cook wouldn’t make the top 10 didn’t make sense to me. According to HDD, sales of 25K would get you into this week’s top 10. All Cook needed was an additional 6,000 in album sales from last week . How hard is it to sell 6,000 additional albums when the show does an informercial for 30 millions fans? However, if the album is still in the Top 10 next week and the weeks after, that’s a whole other story.

    Light On got a great sales boost from the show. But it looks to have peaked on Top 40 (although it could just be stalling). It looks to do better on the HAC and AC charts where Cook’s songs are doing well. I strongly doubt that most of LO fans would want a repeat of LO’s sales and chart performance for the second single. I think most would prefer a bigger hit across more charts. Christmas and that big first week of sales is over for Cook. He needs a major hit single to continue to sell albums.

    It’s always good to have at a Top 10 hit on Top 40 radio (or even go Top 20 which I don’t think LO will achieve).

  • http://widyatarina.wordpress.com widz

    ^I think they didn’t count the AI pimpage/Jimmy Kimmel/etc. as being really influential in bumping up sales – so taking in the fact that David C. was #18 on Billboard last week, HDD kinda correctly predicted that he wouldn’t be in the Top 10..

    ETA: Or maybe HDD didn’t even know that such a thing as an ‘AI bump’ existed. lol

  • Kirsten

    No offense, seriously, but the more I read, the more I canà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t escape that the analysis rises and falls with the notion that LO is not a great song.

    I have openly admitted that I don’t like the song, but I’m not some bitter fan who is angry that their favourite song on the album didn’t get released first.

    The reason I think LO sucks is that it has received HUGE amounts of promo and has a crappy sales record compared to his previous singles which recieved far less promo. That’s it in a nutshell. From this, I can draw the following conclusions:

    1) 19M are the most idiotic promoters on the planet. But I don’t see that. I think they have done a good job. From SNL to AOL to Walmart, they’ve got all the bases covered. So, I don’t believe this reason (although, I’m not suddenly going to think that the song has had a big breakthrough the week it is featured on AI).

    2) Cook fans are both cheap and disciplined. They wouldn’t spring for the single even when the album wasn’t available even though everybody who hears the song loves it. I don’t believe this. Partly because I know that a lot of people in the Idol bubble bought the song even though they knew the album was coming out, you can “return” the single when the album comes out and that’s just not how single buyers operate.

    3) Cook lost most of his fans. They may have rushed out to buy TOML and like LO better, but they aren’t prepared to spend 99 cents on him. I don’t believe that for a moment. His album sales seem to indicate people still like him.

    4) “Light On” alerts people to buy the album, but they buy the album. Now, some think this is because they love the album as much as the single so they buy the entire thing. While I think they go “Hey, David Cook. I like him. The single sucks, but I like the rest of the album”. I just think in today’s day and age, if a song is generally popular, the song does well too.

    Fundamentally, nobody can prove their theory is correct (though, I must warn you, I will claim that I’m right if his next single manages to move both singles and albums). So, to quote Joey, it’s a Moo point.

    à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“why devalue those fans as fickle if weà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re going to suggest that, if anyone first learned of LO or DCTR by watching the AI premiere, 19 needed to do better marketing targeted to reach them in some other way?à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  That question remains unanswered, but thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s ok.

    Well, I don’t even know where to start with that question. I called them fickle because many of them are fickle and that I think Idols need to stake their claim on a more solid/broad fan base. I don’t think they are fickle because they heard LO for the first time this week. I also don’t think 19Alphabet needed to find them sooner (I was merely trying to point out that the song is not popular with the general populace, 19M has been promoting, it ‘s probably just popular with people who like David Cook already. So, 19M has wasted it’s efforts elsewhere because the song just isn’t that great. Cook does a great job on the song, but it just isn’t mainstream in it’s fundamentals. IMO. I don’t think it’s a big marketing coup that they thought to feature him this week. I just think it’s common sense.)

  • weareallinnocent

    ^^ Yes, this widz. And, they may have inaccurately speculated that the weekend would prove more profitable for Notorious than it actually was. At least, that’s what I’m hoping…

  • luckeee55

    I am asking this of all the experts who post here. I am in awe that you know so much as I am simply a fan of music and generally pay no attention to statistics, what qualifies a song as a success, etc. So here goes:

    I see a lot of comparing, Cook to Archuleta; Archuleta to Sparks and Blake; and on and on with people using numbers to argue their points. I can’t see any value in comparing Cook to Archuleta since they are different genres and one was a winner, one was runner up. I can see value to compare Archuleta to either Sparks or Blake since Archie and Sparks share a genre and Archie and Blake are runner ups.

    I think the best comparison for Cook should be to Daughtry because they have the most in common of any. Both see themselves as rock but the public sees them as HAC primarily, with a bit of AC thrown in. Neither can be called rock or top 40 realistically. Both have bands, both write their own songs, both are balding (just a little joke there). Seems to me the statisticians here would be most likely to compare Cook to Daughtry when quantifying Cook’s success and I see very little of the comparison. Rather tons of comparison to others that don’t match up with Cook at all. I would also like to hear how the AI pimpage of Daughtry helped his sales, compared to Cook’s current upswing thanks to AI last week.

  • SpenserJ

    Nice to see you again, SpenserJ.

    Nice to see you too my friend.

    Frankly, I think that all of these are just opinions.

    I couldn’t agree with you more on this one. Most every comment on this blog is an opinion. Outside of the numbers existing for their own sake, the bulk of hypotheses that are derived from these numbers are nothing more than the old wild ass guess. I will however say that I think Kirsten has tracked enough of this stuff historically to have a pretty informed opinion.

    No offense, seriously, but the more I read, the more I canà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t escape that the analysis rises and falls with the notion that LO is not a great song. From that point, notwithstanding that whether it is or is not derives from an undeniably subjective assessment, all sorts of broad stroke conclusions are drawn.

    Yep. It’s all pretty subjective. Is a “gold” single a hit? or does it have to be platinum? How many radio spins does a hit make? I make no claim to know the answer to this. Just saying that some of the things declared “hits” around these parts don’t seem that way to me.

    Heck even Blake got a boost.

    And that was one of the suckiest things I’ve ever seen on that stage. I can thank Blake for curing me of the pre-ordering of CD’s site unseen just because I liked someone on the show. I do at least appreciate that.

    I think they didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t count the AI pimpage/Jimmy Kimmel/etc.

    People watch Kimmel?

  • Kirsten

    Comparing iTunes sales is a bit tricky, unless you know something I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t, Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m not sure how you determine that their sales were comparable.

    Sorry, I haven’t been ignoring this question. It just took me a while to dig up the facts. The sales numbers I was refering to are the ones we had access to. It is entirely speculative (for now) as to what Blake and Archie sold during AI, but we do know what their numbers were for the four days following the AI finale when both had songs available for sale on iTunes their respective years. Blake would go onto sell more, but Archie’s songs were pulled from iTunes at the start of the next week.

    So, my claim that was immediately after AI, Archie and Blake had similar sales. Here are those sales numbers:

    May 2008:
    16 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Imagineà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  71,178 (NEW) Total: 71,178
    26 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t Let the Sun Go Down on Meà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  50,653 (NEW) Total: 50,653
    28 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“In this Momentà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  49,134 (NEW) Total: 49,134
    84 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Longer (American Idol Studio Version)à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  18,992 (NEW) Total: 18,992
    92 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Think of Me (American Idol Studio)à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  17,653 (NEW) Total: 17,653
    96 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Angelsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  16,893 (NEW) Total: 16,893
    107 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“When You Believe (American Idol)à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  15,863 (NEW) Total: 15,863
    110 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Love Me Tender (American Idol)à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  15,108 (NEW) Total: 15,108
    128 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Long and Winding Roadà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  13,675 (NEW) Total: 13,675
    149 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Sweet Caroline (American Idol)à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  11,050 (NEW) Total: 11,050
    161 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Youà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re the Voice (American Idol)à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  10,279 (NEW) Total: 10,279
    171 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Another Day in Paradise (American Idolà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  9,756 (NEW) Total: 9,756

    May 2007:
    11 Blake Lewis à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“You Give Love a Bad Nameà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  70,133 (New) Total: 70,133 (-)
    70 Blake Lewis à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Time Of the Seasonà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  14,748 (New) Total: 14,748 (-)
    76 Blake Lewis à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“This Loveà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  13,288 (New) Total: 13,288 (-)
    91 Blake Lewis à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“When the Stars Go Blueà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  11,434 (New) Total: 11,434 (-)
    121 Blake Lewis à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“I Need to Knowà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  8,814 (New) Total: 8,814 (-)
    176 Blake Lewis à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Imagineà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  6,558 (New) Total: 6,558 (-)

    Plus around 21K of the EP containing 5 songs (including YGLABN).

    There best selling songs sold almost identical amounts (if you don’t take into account that iTunes sales were up overall during 2008 or the sales of Blake’s EPs). That’s what I was basing my theory on that they had similar sized fan bases.

    Subsequent singles show more disparity, but I figure that there is a lot of overlap in Idol purchases (ie many people who buy one song, but other songs as well from the same Idol), so that each single sales doesn’t necessarily indicate unique fans.

    Blake was very popular in his year.

    I think the difference in Archie having a better first week has to do with having a properly released single that was also a good single. But reasonable people can differ.

  • jpfan

    .

    Comparing Cook to Daughtry makes perfect sense. Daughtry’s first hit It’s Not Over really fueled the sales of his album. Unlike Light on, the single was not released before the album but at the same time. A video was not done until January. So Daughtry had the big pre Xmas sales (similiar to Cook) but went double platinum spurred by INO’s rise up the charts.

    I think Idol was surprised by Daughtry’s huge success. He got some early pimping on the show (shots of him singing etc.) but they didn’t go mega until they used Home as the boot song for Season 6. That helped tremendously but since Daughtry went on to sell another 2 1/2 million albums without much AI promo, I think he benefited some but not tons from the Idol pimpage.

    In terms of promo, Daughtry had a Kimmel apperance and the New Year’s Eve gig. That was it. He still doesn’t do much TV promo. His sales are spurred by great radio play and touring.

    On the other hand, while Cook has gotten tons of promo, at least his album sales are good enough to justify the investment. They’re not just throwing their money away. I’m interested to see how a second single does.

  • Kirsten

    Carrie is a superstar whose second album sales are reflective of the overall decreasing album sales. The same will *probably* happen with Daughtry. Both are beyond fickle idol fanbases. IMO.

    A very good point. It’s hard to replicate initial successes period. General music fans can be very fickle too. I think that Idol fans are a bit more fickle though. Nothing wrong with that. Most of them just want some good TV and that’s the way 19Alphabet makes most of their money (off the show).

    I do think that some of Carrie’s lower numbers this time around (remember, the CD is still 2xplat so it’s no slouch), is because she had such a huge cross-over hit last time. I’m not sure the cross-over fans were as dedicated as some of her country fans which is okay because she’s mainly a country artist. Just a theory.

  • weareallinnocent

    Well, one thing is absolutely certain. We don’t know now (and never will) how many albums LO has helped to move. And, we won’t know then (and never will) how many albums yet-to-be-named-second-single has helped to move. After all, by that time, Cook will be touring as well, and presumably singing more than one song. :-)

    Regardless, I guess I really don’t see how we look at the sales trajectory of a single and extrapolate from that how helpful the single is at moving albums. Those two measures would seem to me to be mutually exclusive.

    What-EVAH!

    P.S. Kirsten, you’re invaluable for numbers, analysis, and discussion. Please don’t interpret questions or even disagreement as a lack of appreciation, for they reflect neither! But, if you ever do interpret these that way, just remember: “Simply because people aren’t impressed with what you do, doesn’t mean what you do is not impressive.” (quote mangled and author forgotten) Seriously.

  • Kirsten

    Yep. Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s all pretty subjective. Is a à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“goldà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  single a hit? or does it have to be platinum?

    I think you at least have to sell platinum to be considered a hit these days. 71 singles last year reached platinum status and that’s a lot. In 2007, only 41 singles sold platinum (kind of shows you where the market is going). 19 singles went double platinum (compared to 9 in 2007). Flo Rida sold 467K in a single week last year. Rihanna sold 10 million digital tracks last year.

    Here are the Top 10 selling tracks last year (only including sales that occured during the year):
    1 Bleeding Love/ Leona Lewis 3,369,000
    2 Low (Album Version)/ Flo 2,935,000
    Rida Feat. T-Pain
    3 Disturbia/ Rihanna 2,715,000
    4 I Kissed A Girl/ Katy Perry 2,631,000
    5 I’m Yours (Album Vers.)/ 2,599,000
    Jason Mraz
    6 No Air/ Jordin Sparks Duet 2,586,000
    w/ Chris Brown
    7 So What/ Pink 2,343,000
    8 Pocketful Of Sunshine/ 2,275,000
    Natasha Bedingfield
    9 Hot N Cold/ Katy Perry 2,252,000
    10. 4 Minutes/ Madonna Feat. 2,241,000
    Justin Timberlake

  • Kirsten

    P.S. Kirsten, youà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re invaluable for numbers, analysis, and discussion. Please donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t interpret questions or even disagreement as a lack of appreciation, for they reflect neither!

    Thanks. I don’t mind if people disagree with me. I’m just another person postulating on the internet. I’m not an expert, but I love making predictions. It’s fun to see how they pan out and to discuss things with people. I learn so much from others and there are lots of interesting theories. Even when my favourites end up on the bad end of a theory, I just try to remember that iternet theories don’t cause the numbers to be what they are. They just try to interpret them. The numbers are what they are due to much larger forces.

  • weareallinnocent

    ^^You have favorites? Care to share? Curious mind and all that…

  • SpenserJ

    In terms of promo, Daughtry had a Kimmel apperance and the New Yearà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s Eve gig. That was it. He still doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t do much TV promo. His sales are spurred by great radio play and touring.

    Really? I thought I saw him on TV more than that. But, regardless, something spurred a bunch of sales for him, and I don’t think it was TV promo either. I also have no idea what it was, because I think to me Chris’s voice on the show showed a hell of lot more potential than any of those crappy songs seemed to bring out of him.

    Either way, I give him credit for working so hard with the continuous touring. I think that makes a lot of difference for continued CD sales. With declining CD sales and the expenses incurred, touring is the only way artists today seem to have even a remote prayer of making any cash themselves.

    Rihanna sold 10 million digital tracks last year.

    Holy shit. Hmm, when you take a look at the numbers in that top ten, it seems that platinum would be the minimum required to call something a “hit”. I guess 2x platinum is a “huge hit” LOL.

  • Kirsten

    ^^You have favorites? Care to share? Curious mind and all thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦

    Well, I don’t have any this year yet. I’m waiting for Hollywood. Last year, I had lots of favourite performances, but I never picked a clear favourite. If I had to pick one, I’d probably say Brooke (though I loved Chikezie’s “She’s a Woman”). She was frequently annoying, but I always wanted to hear what she was up to. In Season 6, Melinda was my fav (Blake was interesting and I had a soft spot for Phil). Season 5 was Taylor (plus Paris when she was singing the classics. And for some reason, I just like Bucky). I didn’t really watch Season 4 (although I thought Nadia was interesting) and I loved George Huff from Season 3 (and thought Diana got a rough deal and Fantasia is very talented. And JPL was fun). I only watched the finale for Season 1, but I thought Kelly should win. Season 2 was a whirlwind (my first real season) and I often didn’t want anybody to be eliminated. LOL. I have a terrible track record. Oh well. I like who I like. Maybe I shouldn’t admit to having favourites.

    How about you. Who were your favs?

  • jpfan

    Daughtry probably had more TV promo but it’s the touring and radio hits that made him. He’s never been on Saturday Night Live or the Rockefeller Tree Lighting or even a Disney special, for example. :)

    .
    It’s almost like platinum is the new gold for singles. I’d say platinum is the minimum to call something a hit and double plat makes it a smash. Anything close to triple plat, is a monster hit.

  • weareallinnocent

    How about you. Who were your favs?

    I don’t have history, as they say. LOL

    David Cook, this year. :-) But, I also really enjoyed Jason, Brooke, and Carly during the season. I expected to like Michael, but I didn’t. (I think it was all that Freddie and Steve he insisted on attempting, who knows.) I appreciated Amanda, but knew she wouldn’t last.

    I never watched before Season 4, and even then begrudgingly and only around Top 2-3. Of the two, I preferred Bo. Season 5, again, not much of a viewer until Top 3. Totally missed Daughtry, but probably would have liked him. After all, I now have his CD. :-) Nothing really striking to me, although Elliot was great and Taylor, obviously unique. Season 6, again Top 3-4 watcher, and I think I may have liked both Chris Richardson (do I have the right year?) and Blake. This was the first voting ever, throwing a few to Blake in the final.

    Never would I have imagined buying Idol music. Frankly, I do credit Daughtry for legitimizing the AI gimmick for me. After hearing enough on the radio, I went looking to buy his CD. When I found it, Some Hearts, and Breakaway all on sale, I bought them all at once — I justified doing so because I needed some new music to support my new running habit. LOL And, if Daughtry was legit, maybe Kelly and Carrie could be too. But, anywho, that sums it up, I suppose.

    Oh yeah, I own DCTR and bought LO the day of release. I also just picked up My December after reading some reviews and upon hearing a snip of Kelly’s new single from the new album, which I really did not like at all. After that, I was fairly sure I’d appreciate My December quite a bit, and turns out, I was right. :-)

    Sorry to go off topic — but it was tangentially related, I suppose, or at least the topic stemmed from your talk of favorites, right? Or maybe to colorfully illustrate a “casual fan” or what REALLY drives record sales and why you can’t predict it. LOL Anyway, back to regularly scheduled programming… Over and out.

  • Trina

    In terms of promo, Daughtry had a Kimmel apperance and the New Yearà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s Eve gig. That was it. He still doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t do much TV promo. His sales are spurred by great radio play and touring.

    Hmm not really. He also was on Good Morning America, Regis & Kelly and Ellen, and INO was used in promos for Prison Break before the album dropped. Agreed though his airplay is what helps his continued sales.

    Considering how LO started out I consider gold an accomplishment, but as mentioned above these days I don’t consider it a sign a song is really a hit. TOML may not have done as well on Pop but to me that songs longevity and sales make it more of a hit.

  • Jolene

    Hmmm…. 130 comments before HDD even really kicked in. I love the Monday Morning Mediabase threads. LOL

    So, should the inauguration today impact whether or not we get further updates? I’m international, so I have no clue how that sort of thing works.

  • Hazehel

    It is entirely speculative (for now) as to what Blake and Archie sold during AI, but we do know what their numbers were for the four days following the AI finale when both had songs available for sale on iTunes their respective years.

    I don’t think those numbers are comparable in any way. “Imagine” had been on iTunes for many many weeks (3 months?), I wouldn’t be surprised if it had already gone gold by the finale. The numbers you see are the tail end of the sales, lifted somewhat by the finale. “You Give Love A Bad Name” was only released onto iTunes after the finale, so that’s the start of its sales. It probably did not sell much during before the finale (2 weeks of sales I think, and I don’t think they sold much downloads through the official AI site – otherwise why would they give a chunk of their profit to iTunes this year?)

    “You Give Love A Bad Name” was the song with the biggest buzz that year, on Season 7 it’s “Billie Jean”. And if you only look at the available sales numbers for “Billie Jean” and “Imagine”, you’d find that “Imagine” outsold “Billie Jean”, how do you that could be possible? Especially when you think David Cook won and sold nearly a million downloads in total that week? “Billie Jean” stayed high in the unofficial chart all through the competetion, everything suggests that it had gone at least gold before the finale, perhaps even outselling “Imagine” by a few 100K’s. What it tells us however is that the official numbers of Idol song for Archuleta or Cook don’t give the true magnitude of their sales. Not one bit.

  • Jolene

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Billie Jean sold Platinum during AI. It stayed high on iTunes for a long long time and spiked up every time David Cook had another strong performance. No one really knows and I doubt we’ll ever get those figurs, but there’s no doubt that the sales we saw for anything other than The Magic Rainbow and the 3 finale tracks for each David, was really just the tail end, as Hazehel said. Those songs were for sale for months, they definitely got a huge bump from the finale and the knowledge that they will no longer be available, but they sold boatloads all through the season.

    Does anyone remember what was the 3rd iTunes #1 DC had during Idol? I know Billie Jean and ABMB made it to #1, but I remember there was another one and I can’t remember which one it was.

  • jpfan

    I know Daughtry got the usual morning show gigs that they all get. And he did get the extra promo from Prison Break. But Cook got more promo before his album dropped than Daughtry has had selling almost 5xplat. I don’t remember a Daughtry infomercial during the show, for example. Although playing Home during S6 probably counts as one. ;)

    Since the discussion is about what a huge hit single can do for an album, let’s agree that INO did an incredible job for Daughtry. Followed by at least four more big hits, that sealed the deal. While Cook is doing fine, he’d no doubt be doing even better if LO was a bigger hit.

    Eventually radio sells the album. Even Idol can’t keep things afloat forever since they will have to start pushing the new winner/runner up. The TV fans will get involved in the new crew. That’s how it works.

  • Kirsten

    I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t think those numbers are comparable in any way. à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Imagineà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  had been on iTunes for many many weeks (3 months?), I wouldnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t be surprised if it had already gone gold by the finale.

    Okay, question for the Archie fans. I was under the impression that the “Imagine” available for sale those 4 days after Idol was the “Imagine” he performed for the finale (IIRC, Archie never had a studio version of “Imagine”. Only live performances) not the one that had been for sale all those months. Did they cheap out and not release a new live version of “Imagine”?

    Actually, you bring up an interesting point in that “Imagine” was actually available for sale for 7 days as opposed to all the other songs listed that were only available for sale for 4 days.

    Perhaps we should toss “Imagine” off the heap and only look at the new songs that Archie had available for sale on iTunes that week. If you are correct and say that people didn’t really buy any significant number of Season 6 songs prior to the songs appearing on iTunes, that would mean that we should only compare the following songs to each other:

    Archie:
    26 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t Let the Sun Go Down on Meà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  50,653 (NEW) Total: 50,653
    28 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“In this Momentà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  49,134 (NEW) Total: 49,134

    Blake:
    11 Blake Lewis à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“You Give Love a Bad Nameà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  70,133 (New) Total: 70,133 (-)
    70 Blake Lewis à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Time Of the Seasonà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  14,748 (New) Total: 14,748 (-)
    76 Blake Lewis à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“This Loveà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  13,288 (New) Total: 13,288 (-)
    91 Blake Lewis à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“When the Stars Go Blueà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  11,434 (New) Total: 11,434 (-)
    121 Blake Lewis à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“I Need to Knowà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  8,814 (New) Total: 8,814 (-)
    176 Blake Lewis à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Imagineà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  6,558 (New) Total: 6,558 (-)
    Plus around 21K of the EP containing 5 songs (including YGLABN).

    If we just look at songs that were sung during the finale, that gives about 91K for YGLABN (combining EP and single sales) and an average of about 50K per song (assuming the songs share a lot of the same buyers) for Archie. From that, it looks like Blake came out of Idol with a fan base almost twice as large as Archie (which would make “Crush” even more responsible for driving those first week sales numbers).

    Of course, as I’ve always said, it’s very difficult to compare apples to apples. Factors that would have increased Season 7 sales over Season 6:
    1) People knew they only had a few days to buy the Season 7 songs while there was no time limit on Season 6 songs.
    2) People had already been “trained” during the year to go to iTunes to purchase songs. Many people might not have realized the Season 6 songs were available on iTunes that week.

    Things that would have increased Blake’s sales over Archie’s:
    1) There may have been pent up demand for purchase of Blake’s songs because a lot of people didn’t want to buy songs from Idol directly. Who wants Simon to have their credit card number? People might be more likely to purchase from a vendor they already deal with
    2) Archie’s two finale songs were both live recordings while Blake’s were studio recordings
    3) That week, Archie had to compete with all the Idols. Only Jordin and Blake were allowed to release songs that first week (although he did not have to compete those last 4 days, people may have satisified their Idol buying single appetite by that point already).

    Fundamentally, we cannot prove one way or the other who had the bigger fan base coming out of Idol. I don’t think that Blake’s fan base was insignificant (certainly not around where I was on the internet or at the concert I attended).

    We do know that labels release singles in advance of albums in hopes of increasing sales for that first week, and given the success of “Crush” on the radio and iTunes sales (very consistent iTunes sales. That song has great legs), that would normally suggest that the lead-off single did help sales, but it’s possible it did not.

  • frogcooke

    there were two version of imagine, on itunes. or at lest I have both versions lol so I would assume that is the case.

    I have no idea how it would of worked with 2 versions of imagine though.. Normally 2 versions of a song, example, single and album version of crush would show up seperate on itunes but together on the sales chart.

    I have noo idea how it worked with the idol songs.

  • Jolene

    Idol released all 3 finale songs for both Davids that week, but those were live versions, not studio versions, and not full songs. Considering Imagine already existed on iTunes as a live partial version, I don’t think the new version had enough different about it to qualify as something new and exciting for the casual Idol fan. I also believe they combined the stats for the two versions, since I don’t remember there being two figures for Imagine, but I could be mistaken about that.

  • poporange

    Ok I don’t know much about history..or numbers. Lame joke I know, by observation people on American Idol mostly get a bump in sales then level off afterwards quickly or gradually. Right nowDc song LO is not a monster or his cd not like Taylor Swift taking the pop 40 by storm . Yes I predicted DC it will at least sell a million and stand by that. I am hopeful season 8 will be more about this years contestants than pimping of others and leaving them in the dust like season 6.

    Kristen-thanks for your information.

  • Kirsten

    I have no idea how it would of worked with 2 versions of imagine though.. Normally 2 versions of a song, example, single and album version of crush would show up seperate on itunes but together on the sales chart.

    I’m pretty sure that’s what happened with “Imagine” that week (sales of the two versions were combined). I’m not sure if they were ever for sale at the same time. Did iTunes yank the pre-Finale songs prior to releasing the finale songs or was there a period of time when all the songs were available?

    In case I’m confusing anybody. I do think that Archie came out of Idol with a big fan base, I just think that “Crush” did help find new fans for Archie and that all of DATA’s first weeks sales aren’t attributable to bulk buying rabid Archie fans bitter that he didn’t win (nor do I think that all of DCTR’s first week sales were to bulk-buying rabid Cookie fans determined to prove he deserved to win. Really, I think that most fans are normal and spend their funds wisely. Nor am I saying that the OP was claiming that DATA’s sales were attibutable to bulk-buying rabid Archie fans. And that’s enough disclaimers).

  • Hazehel

    Perhaps we should toss à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Imagineà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  off the heap and only look at the new songs that Archie had available for sale on iTunes that week.

    Ah, but you can’t toss out “Imagine” and keep “You Give Love A Bad Name”, since they are the songs with the biggest buzz for Archuleta and Blake respectively. It would be an unfair comparison otherwise. Once you toss out “You Give Love A Bad Name”, you will see that the David Archuleta has more than three times the sales of Blake for the next two songs, and a 3 to 1 ratio is what I suspect the comparative sales of “Imagine” to “You Give Love A Bad Name”.

    On an aside, didn’t someone mention that Jason Castro was the most popular person on the tour, the one with the most fervent fans and the one getting the most presents? Just saying that being popular on the tour doesn’t necessarily correlate with the actual size of fan base.

  • yeahyeahsure

    INO was used in promos for Prison Break before the album dropped.

    Nope. INO was used for a week to promote the season finale of Prison Break which was in January – the album dropped November.

  • weareallinnocent

    Continuing the rank speculation, and debate based solely thereon… :-)

    I guess I simply don’t buy into the notion that Crush DID push Archie’s first week album sales beyond his fanbase — resulting in the 183,000 sales number — but Light On DID NOT not help Cookie’s first week album sales — resulting in his 280,000 sales number. Obviously, I could be wrong, but 100K is a significant enough distinction between the two, all things being equal. It becomes astounding to me, considering Archie’s popularity on the show, if we broaden the divide between their AI (aka fanbase) popularity even further based on their respective singles.

    But, hey, is ok with me if it’s true. :-)

  • tinawina

    Nope. INO was used for a week to promote the season finale of Prison Break which was in January – the album dropped November.

    No, I heard it on TV in November (October?). That was how I heard it first.

  • Trina

    It was definitely November, the week the album dropped to be exact. However Prison Break did use the song again sometime in January during an episode.

  • Kirsten

    Ah, but you canà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t toss out à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Imagineà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  and keep à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“You Give Love A Bad Nameà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ , since they are the songs with the biggest buzz for Archuleta and Blake respectively. It would be an unfair comparison otherwise. Once you toss out à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“You Give Love A Bad Nameà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ , you will see that the David Archuleta has more than three times the sales of Blake for the next two songs, and a 3 to 1 ratio is what I suspect the comparative sales of à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Imagineà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  to à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“You Give Love A Bad Nameà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ .

    LOL. So many ways to read the data. I was just thinking of tossing “Imagine” from consideration since it had been available for sale for almost twice as long as any of the other songs on the list (7 days as opposed to 4 days). We could divide it’s sales by 4/7ths (or about 40,000 over the same time period) if we assume that it sold the same number of units each day. Or we could take the sales of YGLABN from the next week and add them to the sales from the first week to get a better idea.

    Also, please note that you can’t forget those EP sales. Add 21K to each of Blake’s totals and you will see that they were much closer to Archie’s other songs (although only 5 of the songs were on the EP. I know YGLABN was. I don’t remember the other ones).

    Here are the revised numbers:
    11 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“You Give Love a Bad Nameà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  91K
    70 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Time Of the Seasonà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  36K
    76 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“This Loveà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  34K
    91 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“When the Stars Go Blueà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  32K
    121 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“I Need to Knowà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  30K
    176 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Imagineà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  28K

    Besides, wasn’t Archie hammered for reprising “Imagine” in the finale? Wasn’t his buzz worthy song from the finale DLTSGDOM? Perhaps just in my corner of the internet.

    I suppose that it is possible that singles do absolutely nothing to promote an album in which case the labels are REALLY wasting their money. I’m sure they have researchers working on that.

    I see no reason why “Crush” didn’t generate new fans for Archie. I realize that people can differ, but I see “Crush” as a departure from what he sang on Idol. To me, it’s much more young and current sounding (except for that Chris Brown song that he sang, but I’m not sure that went over that well) than most of the songs he sang on Idol (I’m not going to debate how he ended up with those songs. I’m just looking at whether I think that “Crush” was designed to appeal to those fans that already liked his song choices from Idol or if it was perhaps designed to not alienate those fans while also getting new ones). So, a new sound means a chance at gaining new fans. I think. “Crush” was fairly popular on the radio and did move a lot of units.

  • sleepyinsomniac

    The reason I think LO sucks is that it has received HUGE amounts of promo and has a crappy sales record compared to his previous singles which recieved far less promo. Thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s it in a nutshell.

    Has Light On been played in front of audience of 30 million people in a show whose structure is such that they actually promote the sales of the songs? Did those people have the option to buy an entire record instead of just the single thus taking away a number from the single tally and putting it in the record tally? And I thought the reason LO sucks is because it’s not selling the way that a better single from the record would have sold? I didn’t realize that we were actually comparing the LO sales numbers with DC’s AI sales numbers… And also, we actually know what the AI sales numbers are?

    And again, what numbers are we talking about here? 1 million? More? Again, I say, isn’t this comparing the LO sales numbers to the imaginary numbers of the what-should-have-been single?

    à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Light Onà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  alerts people to buy the album, but they buy the album. Now, some think this is because they love the album as much as the single so they buy the entire thing. While I think they go à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Hey, David Cook. I like him. The single sucks, but I like the rest of the albumà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ . I just think in todayà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s day and age, if a song is generally popular, the song does well too.

    If this is true then why does Light On suck as a single? Isn’t the end goal to sell records? And again, who’s to say that if the single would have been another song, the person would not buy just the single instead of the entire record? In that sense, LO is actually working to the advantage of DCTR.

  • Jolene

    Besides, wasnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t Archie hammered for reprising à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Imagineà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  in the finale?

    Hammered? Not unless “hammered” means “praised by the judges”. That was the song that got the biggest response and the “knockout” comment. Also it’s overall the standout song for Archie on Idol, much like Billie Jean is for David Cook (At least if you go by most “Top 10 ever” Idol lists).

    weareallinnocent, totally agree with your last post.

  • Kirsten

    Hammered? Not unless à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“hammeredà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  means à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“praised by the judgesà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ .

    I meant by the media and the bloggers. A lot of people complained that he should not have re-sung that song. He got a LOT of buzz earlier in the season, but revisiting past successes always looks like you are desperate (although, I know Archie tried to get other songs cleared for that night, that wasn’t generally known at the time). The judges can say what they like, but the public doesn’t necessarily agree with them (evidence: David Cook winning despite what the judges said). I don’t think the judges buy that many singles, so it’s the general public’s opinion that matter, IMO.

    Also its overall the standout song for Archie on Idol, much like Billie Jean is for David Cook.

    Okay. So let’s say Archie sold 40K for his standout song for the 4 days following Idol the Idol finale while Blake sold 91K of his standout song for the same period. If we take that as the measuring stick for fanbases, Blake’s fan base was much larger than Archie’s coming out of Idol.

    I think there are a lot of problems with that theory, but there you go.

    I don’t think we can quantasize fan bases that easily, but I do think that “Crush” gained new fans.

  • yeahyeahsure

    Re: INO/Prison Break
    Thanks. I guess I didn’t know because I was not that familiar with the song back then.

  • Jolene

    I meant by the media and the bloggers.

    I don’t know about bloggers, but I mostly remember the media parroting Simon and calling the night a Knockout for Archuleta. He got rave reviews for his finale performances, that was the overall impression I got, anyway.
    In any case I don’t think someone who walked away from the finale loving Imagine would decide against downloading it after reading a blogger “hammering” Archie for the repeat. Just MHO.

    So letà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s say Archie sold 40K for his standout song for the 4 days following Idol the Idol finale while Blake sold 91K of his standout song for the same period.

    I think the point was already made that Imagine was available for months before the finale and likely had its prime share of downloads then. I don’t think we can compare these two songs in any way. There are simply too many discrepancies betweeen the Season 6 and Season 7 sales model.

    BTW – I don’t understand what exactly the sales numbers for the songs have to do with fanbase size. It wasn’t just fans who bought these songs – I know many people who are very far from Cook fans who bought Billie Jean, and I’m sure the same is true for Archie and Imagine.

  • SashaB

    “Boat anchor, plodder, à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“micro-hità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ , I love that LO keeps debunking these theories week after week. LOL.

    Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s only been 3 months. That song will hit platinum. There, I said it.”

    ^^ This is awesome. Daenarys, also the one who predicted platinum for Magic Rainbows, aka our Happy Song. Hee!


    “The reason I think LO sucks is that it has received HUGE amounts of promo and has a crappy sales record compared to his previous singles which recieved far less promo.”

    ^^ Made me LOL. Um, what other singles could have possibly gotten promo? Reminds me of Paula’s AI7 Top 5 “seeing into the future”. Far as we all know, LO is his first official single. Um, also, I don’t know if anyone would consider over 500K units of sales as crappy. I bet there would be a number of artists who would want a certified gold single in this economy. So, yeah, Magic Rainbow his other single that is out did get promo, and is also platinum. But it took Magic Rainbow more than 4 months to get there. So let’s wait a few more months to see if LO will go platinum. I’m not saying it will, but I’m also not saying it will not.

    I think the Davids are doing great. Y’all know I like David Cook, but I also like Archie. I bought “Crush”. It’s cute and appropriate and a fun song. I hear it on the radio, all the time. So good for him for sticking it to any naysayers or bloggers who thought (during AI) that he wan’t marketable or could only sing ballads. Archie is doing great so far.

    These comments have been a fun read. Hee. Maybe it was because it was a bank holiday and a snow day for some. Kirsten, you’ve sure been busy. Hope it’s been fun though. Thanks for this thread. Wish we’d get HDD updates soon. Love that DCTR is currently #11 on iTunes.

  • Hazehel

    I don’t think “You Give Love A Bad Name” can be considered for comparison for reasons stated. Most who bought “Imagine” during the show would not have bothered to buy another one after the finale (apart from his strongest fans of course), so its number after the finale is essentially meaningless for analysis unless we can find out what the actual total is.

    So, to use your revised numbers, and compare them to the pair of Archie’s numbers (“This Love” and “Imagine” was not on Blake Lewis’ EP, so you can’t add extra for those) –

    Blake Lewis
    Time Of the Season 36K When the Stars Go Blue 32K

    David Archuleta
    Donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t Let the Sun Go Down on Me 51K In this Moment 49K

    With this set of numbers, David Archuleta still sold about ~1.5 times those of Blake Lewis. When you talk about averages of all the songs, it’s ~24K for Blake Lewis (ignoring YGLABN), giving David Archuleta roughly a two times advantage.

    Someone just posted that the first week sales of David Archuleta’s album was 183K (not 166K as I said before). Using this number it would appear that the album sales trajectory is almost the same for both David Archuleta and Blake Lewis, David Archuleta being only slightly better, suggesting that “Crush” only has a minor effect in boosting the sales of the album after the first week of release. And what about the first week sales? David Archuleta had just under twice the sales of Blake Lewis, and amazingly enough, that’s not far from what you get from the average calculation. I certainly won’t say that this is a proof of anything, given that it is so easy to change the result simply by looking at the data differently, just that there isn’t a great deal of evidence there to suggest that Archie’s album sales benefited greatly from “Crush”.

    I suppose that it is possible that singles do absolutely nothing to promote an album in which case the labels are REALLY wasting their money.

    I never said that singles do nothing to promote album, just that as far as “Crush” is concerned, it probably didn’t help that much. I think future single releases may do more to help David’s album sales.

  • Kirsten

    I think the point was already made that Imagine was available for months before the finale and likely had its prime share of downloads then.

    Yes. I know. That’s why we can’t compare apples to apples. There are just so many variables. You also have to factor in that download sales are about 30% higher in 2008 year than 2007 (so you should reduce Archie’s Idol single sales by 30% when comparing to Blake) and that album sales were down something like 15% (so you should inflate Archie’s album sales by that amount when comparing to Blake). I’m not trying to hammer on Blake here. I’m just using compareables to suggest that “Crush” changed the outcome for DATA.

    BTW – I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t understand what exactly the sales numbers for the songs have to do with fanbase size.

    Sometimes these arguments get parsed down to every little detail, but they don’t work that way. It’s a pile of evidence that is used to make a case. Not each item in isolation. It all started when I suggested that I thought that the “Crush” helped to boost the sales of DATA. I theorized that based on single sales for the past two runner-ups, the fact that all three were popular runner-ups to the winner (no Diana amongst them) and so on, that Archie’s fan base was in line with previous runner-ups and one would expect that DATA would continue the sales trends of the previous two runner-ups. It didn’t (it did better). So, I theorized that one of the contributing factors was that Archie had a properly released single that was popular. That’s the entire idea with releasing singles. Most of the music business is based on that theory. I’m not sure why it is so easily dismissed as a factor in this case. In fact, given the standard industry practices, I’d be interested in knowing why people think that “Crush” is the exception to the “release a lead-off single” rule in that it had very little effect on sales if that’s what people are arguing.

    Someone just posted that the first week sales of David Archuletaà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s album was 183K (not 166K as I said before). Using this number it would appear that the album sales trajectory is almost the same for both David Archuleta and Blake Lewis, David Archuleta being only slightly better, suggesting that à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Crushà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  only has a minor effect in boosting the sales of the album after the first week of release.

    With this set of numbers, David Archuleta still sold about ~1.5 times those of Blake Lewis. When you talk about averages of all the songs, ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s ~24K for Blake Lewis (ignoring YGLABN), giving David Archuleta roughly a two times advantage.

    I don’t think that is reasonable to do. People not buying the EP probably didn’t like all the songs so you are getting a different subset. The more choices you have the more you spread out things. If a person is just going to buy one song, having five songs available would yield you a “lower fan base” size than if you have two songs available for sale. Archie had only 3 songs available for sale during that 4 day post-Idol period (and we are tossing one out).

    I just don’t think that Kat and Blake had fan bases that were significantly smaller than Archie’s. The ratings across all 3 seasons were similarish (Kat 36.3M, Blake 30.7M, Archie 31.7M). They were all runner-ups which mean you have to have a fairly large number of fans. And didn’t Archie lose by the biggest margin implying that he has fewer fans compared to the winner (or fans that are less dedicated to voting which may be a measure of something). So, I think “Crush” had an affect. As it was intended.

    We may just have to differ on this.

    I think future single releases may do more to help Davidà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s album sales.

    That’s probably true. Two successful singles are more likely to encourage people to buy an album.

  • tinawina

    And didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t Archie lose by the biggest margin implying that he has fewer fans compared to the winner (or fans that are less dedicated to voting which may be a measure of something).

    He lost by a big margin but his year also had the most total votes cast. So he may have netted more votes than some of the other finalists, even with the disparity.

    That said, I agree with you. Crush sold albums for Archie. This is another one of those things that seems like a no-brainer to me. Still, I think in pop album sales don’t necessarily get going with the first single. Its when you get to the 2 and 3rd song that things really start moving. So while Crush sold some records, I think it’s main function is to set a good foundation for future sales.

  • weareallinnocent

    Assuming I’ve successfully followed it all, I’d say the analysis has become a bit circular for my taste. But, they say, everything comes full circle, what goes around comes around, and yada, yada, yada…

    FWIW, I was not debating the overall impact of Crush on DATA sales generally, but rather questioning the assertion that it impacted first week sales “as a good single should,” then juxtaposing that with the assertion that Light On did little for DCTR first week sales or at least not what “a better single would.”

    I find myself again sharing mileage with the sleepy insomniac. “Less promotion” of Cook’s “other better performing singles” has me scratching my head. First, there’s only one other “single,” released as such, and it received crazy debut promotion to the tune of live performance to an audience of 55 million viewers, followed by TV spots, months of touring performances, Olympic coverage, Oprah…. and countless other spots. I could go on, but won’t. So, we can’t be claiming less promotion there. Second, with no other single releases, I assume we’re talking Idol performances, for which we don’t even have numbers to know about overall performance and we surely cannot claim less promotion when, again, you have tens of millions of viewers every single week and sales promo on those very shows. Different promotion, perhaps, but not less.

    I do have to LOL at the suggestion that Archie was “hammered” for his Imagine redux, considering he was declared the winner of every round in the finals and the overall winner by a knockout. Not to mention that repeating a successful song from the season is the norm, as I understand it, and the true “hammering” came from Simon to Cook for NOT repeating one of his stand out performances and deviating from the norm.

    My conclusion drawn from such diverse perspectives is that, at least with respect to AI, who you like and what you read and where you read it colors most everything.

    On to the Inauguration for me… What a wonderfully, exciting moment…

  • SashaB

    AI contestants usually have a large voting fanbase. Trick is to leverage and convert those TV fans into AI tour ticket buys and ultimately album/single buyers. So yeah, some people had massive fanbases. But, if the product or albums are not good or are so utterly different from the image built during the show, then that conversion is less likely to be realized. See Hicks, Taylor or Lewis, Blake.

    If the songs or albums are good, then generally the sales will be too. DCTR is a good debut album and represents the image that DC had throughout the AI TV show. He didn’t come out with country ballads or techno rock. DATR is also a good debut album – and “Crush” fits Archie’s image also built throughout the show. That’s why I think the Davids have had such strong sales, and continue to do well. The first month or even two might have been die hard fans, but we are now well into the third month and the sales are still steady. This leads me to believe both are converting or getting new fans outside the AI bubble.

  • CathyMK

    DA was definitely not hammered by the majority of reviewers for repeating Imagine, at least not in the first 24 hours. Opinions may have changed after the results show, hindsight being 20/20, and all that. WhatNotToSing.com (which uses online blogs and reviews to rate AI performances) gives him a rating of 71 for that performance. Since 50 is average, 71 is a pretty healthy score.

    For anyone not familiar with WhatNotToSing.com , here is a link to their FAQs page, which explains their rating method about halfway down the page:

    http://www.whatnottosing.com/about/aboutFaqs.asp#rtgCalc

  • latingrl2005

    on pop
    – 26 KELLY CLARKSON My Life Would Suck W… 2182 – 2182 17.597

    361 Spins
    361 Bullet
    2.704 Audience

    on Hot AC
    – 28 KELLY CLARKSON My Life Would Suck W… 735 – 735 5.155

    118 Spins
    118 Bullet
    0.750 Audience

  • abbysee

    Wow, watch Kelly go! There will be no bickering about whether or not this song is a hit, huh?

  • Jolene

    The first month or even two might have been die hard fans, but we are now well into the third month and the sales are still steady. This leads me to believe both are converting or getting new fans outside the AI bubble.

    Yeah, we’re definitely past the hardcore fans by now.
    I wouldn’t exactly put the Davids in the same boat as far as album sales go, though. I think while Cook’s album shows great stability since its release, Archie’s stability is much more appearant if you look at his singles sales. They have very very different trajectories.

  • Hazehel

    And didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t Archie lose by the biggest margin implying that he has fewer fans compared to the winner

    I just did a quick calculation because I don’t know if any actual numbers were ever released for individual contestants, and hope that this is correct – 97.5 million votes were cast in seasons 7. Ryan said that there’s a difference of 12 million votes between the two, that gives ~42.7 million votes for Archuleta. But if we calculate using DialIdol score, that will give ~40 millions votes for Archuleta, suggesting that the DialIdol data can give a rough estimate of the actual number. In season 6, 74 million votes were cast, calculating using DialIdol numbers, that gives us ~30 millions votes for Blake Lewis. So there were far more vote cast for David Archuleta than for Blake Lewis, even if we assume that the calculation might be off by 10%.

    Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢d be interested in knowing why people think that à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Crushà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  is the exception to the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“release a lead-off singleà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  rule in that it had very little effect on sales if thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s what people are arguing.

    I’m sure it had some effect, just that it wasn’t great. Archie’s album didn’t do spectacularly well, especially when you compare it with the relatively poor performance of “Light On” and the significantly better sales of David Cook’s album. I know it’s different genre and what have you, but still, would David Cook sell 400K or more in the first week if this Light on had been as successful as “Crush”? Somehow I doubt it.

  • frogcooke

    ^^ Well I think different styles and type of promo and also genre also affect how album sales will go. Also considering how overall singles now a days are out selling albums.

  • Kirsten

    FWIW, I was not debating the overall impact of Crush on DATA sales generally, but rather questioning the assertion that it impacted first week sales à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“as a good single should,à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  then juxtaposing that with the assertion that Light On did little for DCTR first week sales or at least not what à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“a better single would.à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ 

    LOL. I’ve been trying to neatly side-step that hulking elephant in the corner during this bit of the debate. But I guess it is there. I’m not going to do direct comparisons on that one though.

    I find myself again sharing mileage with the sleepy insomniac. à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Less promotionà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  of Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“other better performing singlesà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  has me scratching my head.

    Cook’s singles from AI were sung on one show. Granted, it’s a good show to sing on, but as we’ve seen that doesn’t guarantee success (every song sung on the show doesn’t automatically go to platinum). The Olympics/Oprah came much later on and that was only for one song. I really don’t think RCA/19Alphabet put a lot of effort into moving Cook’s AI singles. Those babies sold themselves.

  • Kirsten

    So there were far more vote cast for David Archuleta than for Blake Lewis, even if we assume that the calculation might be off by 10%.

    Here we get to one of my wonderful pet theories. I would agree that there were more votes registered for Archie, but I’m not sure what we can say about votes cast (or shall we say votes attempted to be cast). I think that sometime after Season 5, the powers that be opened up a lot more phone lines in an attempt to blunt the accuracy of DialIdol. After Season 5, we start seeing a lot fewer people griping about how they tried to vote for N hours straight and never got in a single vote. Plus, this way they get to brag about higher vote totals. Of course, they may have done it to be nice to the voters, but somehow, it seems that foiling and bragging are more there thing.

    Also, I think that text messaging has become more common over the years so that I bet the number of text votes have gone up which are less prone to be throttled than phone votes.

    I’m not saying that this couldn’t be taken as an indication that Cookie and Archie weren’t more popular than any other contestants that have been on the show, but I think there are also some other factors at play.

    - 26 KELLY CLARKSON My Life Would Suck Wà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ 2182 – 2182 17.597

    Totally impressive by any measure.

  • latingrl2005

    Itunes….

    12. My Life Would S**k Without You – Kelly Clarkson

  • frogcooke

    oh goody!

  • SashaB

    “Archieà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s album didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t do spectacularly well, especially when you compare it with the relatively poor performance of à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Light Onà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  and the significantly better sales of David Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s album. I know ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s different genre and what have you, but still, would David Cook sell 400K or more in the first week if this Light on had been as successful as à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Crushà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ? Somehow I doubt it.”

    ^^ Seriously, is this for real? But here’s the thing the answer to that. We will never know. Yes, you can interpret the data in different ways. But some facts are immutable, no matter how you spin it. What is indisputable is that for the past 3 weeks, LO has had strong sales.

    42 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Light Onà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  82,489 (206%; lw 26,918) Total: 428,912 (46) – 206% increase
    39 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Light Onà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  57,735 (-30%; lw 82,489) Total: 486,647 (42)
    43 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Light Onà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  37,714 (-35%; lw 57,735) Total: 524,361 (39) **NOW GOLD** (thanks Kirsten)

    What is also not known or mutable, however, is how much having a Chris Cornell song as the lead off single helped DCTR sell. Like it or not, Chris Cornell has rock cred. Idol does not. Chris Cornell has fans, who were pretty vocal about the BJ credits. We will never know how LO might have help attract those types of rock fans – not necessarily AI fans.

    David Cook has already sold ~862K albums to date. With steady sales, not 2 weeks of front loaded sales like Taylor Hicks. And by Kirsten’s HDD updates, DCTR might be in the Top 5 album sales this week. This is contrary to all your previous claims back in December about DCTR falling sales or January drops like Hicks. Because that didn’t happened. IIRC, some also predicted MAJOR plummeting for DCTR back then, but it didn’t materialize. Yes, everyone in the Top 20 dropped, but DCTR has always sold within the Top 20 since its release. DATR has not, despite Crush. Again, I like Archie and think he’s doing great.

    18 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“David Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  19,394 (-37%; lw 30,595) Total: 861,656 (16)
    62 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“David Archuletaà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  8,349 (-41% 14,157) Total: 588,559 (51)

    ^^ But there are about 273K units separating these two album sales. And, DATR has one extra week of sales more than DCTR so imagine another week of DCTR sales in addition to what is up there. The spread would be even greater.

    Also, LO is back to #11 or #12 on iTunes. So maybe it’s taking a while for the song to resonate. It’s getting increasing spins. Crush is absent from other formats as I see up top. Again, I like Archie. Again, I am not trying to start a fan war. I like Archie. But this weird parsing of data and odd claims of LO tankage is really baffling. Apples and oranges. Guess what, David Cook won. They are no longer competing. It’s all good.

  • weareallinnocent

    I really donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t think RCA/19Alphabet put a lot of effort into moving Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s AI singles. Those babies sold themselves.

    No doubt about it! And, of course, I would never seek to undermine that accomplishment at all. I simply don’t know those sales numbers. I assume you do, or else how could we claim that those songs performed better than LO?

    The Olympics/Oprah came much later on and that was only for one song.

    Ok, throw out the Olympics and Oprah. In fact, throw out everything. Then, for TOML, take the “one show” it was performed on. You get 236,000 units moved in 4 days, or some such nonsense? And, how many of the songs NOT sung on that one show charted that week too? Nearly record breaking numbers. It can’t be that we limit our analysis of those songs’ promotion to the show on which they were sung. And, even if we do, we’re talking at least 30 million “audience impressions” in a single 1:30 minute period. That’s no slouch promotion!

    We can agree to disagree on opinions, of course. I’m simply searching for the facts, or even supportable premises that form the basis that either those Idol songs are “better performing” than LO or that they were effectively promoted to fewer folks. With the latter, I suppose we can debate the effectiveness of types of promotion — like creating emotional drama or threatening unavailability while tens of millions of eyes are glued to the TV versus simply talking or singing live, on the radio, TV, or internet. But, with the former, at least I don’t have the sales numbers to begin to compare performances for any songs other than TOML and LO. And, with those two, I personally do not believe it can be objectively said that LO received “HUGE” promotion and TOML did not.

  • SpenserJ

    Yeah, weà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re definitely past the hardcore fans by now.

    This is the part that I question. And, I’m not being sarcastic or facetious. I’m really asking, what is it that makes you so certain of this?

    Is it this?

    It wasnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t just fans who bought these songs – I know many people who are very far from Cook fans who bought Billie Jean, and Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m sure the same is true for Archie and Imagine.

    I noticed that you mentioned that Jolene, and I’m thinking that maybe that’s the difference. I don’t think I actually know a single human being who is not an AI fan who has ever purchased a single song from an AI contestant – outside of Kelly, Carrie & Chris D (and of course the Dream Girls soundtrack).

    I’m thinking that must be why my crack-pot theory is so diametrically opposed to many others. It’s the influence of my own personal bubble, which is admittedly made up of non-idol fans & non-AI music buyers. So hmm, maybe I just answered my own question?

    On a sidenote – I’ll agree that Kelly’s single is a hit. But, that isn’t based on any facts LOL. Just my own personal opinion that it’s actually a good song, whereas most of the singles we’ve been discussing in this thread are mediocre at best. So, totally subjective indeed :)

  • Hazehel

    Oh Sasha, I think there have been some misreading of what I wrote. None of what I said that you are apparently annoyed about is about David Cook’s album sales (it’s about David Archuleta’s). What I said about David Cook here have actually been rather optismistic. And no, I didn’t predict David Cook’s album will plummet after Christmas, anyone who read what I have written knows that I have been quite bullish about his sales – I’ve been going on about it going platinum in January, well, that prediction doesn’t look like coming true, it’ll probably missed it by a couple of weeks.

    Whatever happened to HDD updates?

  • jumpstart

    On a sidenote – Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll agree that Kellyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s single is a hit. But, that isnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t based on any facts LOL. Just my own personal opinion that ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s actually a good song, whereas most of the singles weà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve been discussing in this thread are mediocre at best. So, totally subjective indeed :)

    Definitely subjective. I absolutely lurve Kelly Clarkson but her new song does nothing for me. Perhaps it will “grow” on me … we’ll see.

  • SpenserJ

    Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve been going on about it going platinum in January, well, that prediction doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t look like coming true, ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll probably missed it by a couple of weeks.

    That brings up another question. Aren’t CD’s often certified platinum when they’ve “shipped” platinum but not necessarily “sold” platinum? I would guess that DC’s current number would put him in the range of when other artists have been certified. So, I wonder, do they not do that anymore? Has his label just not applied for certification yet? Or, do the distributors ship them at a significantly slower place these days because of the market conditions?

  • Jolene

    This is the part that I question. And, Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m not being sarcastic or facetious. Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m really asking, what is it that makes you so certain of this?

    Because I’m talking about hardcore fans – not casual fans, not AI fans, hardcore Cook and Archuleta fans, meaning the fans who follow their releases and know when a single comes out and when an album comes out. The fans who are involved and don’t need to be reminded by Idol that the winner or runner up from last year has an album out.
    Why would someone who’s such a fan wait two whole months to purchase an album? It simply doesn’t make any sense. A fan who doesn’t care enough about the product to buy it in a timely fashion is not much of a fan, is he? So yeah, I’m pretty certain we’re past the hardcore fans by now, two months post DC’s release and over two months post DA’s.

    I noticed that you mentioned that Jolene, and Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m thinking that maybe thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s the difference. I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t think I actually know a single human being who is not an AI fan who has ever purchased a single song from an AI contestant

    Now see, what we have here is a simple misunderstanding. I said “Cook fans”, not “AI fans”, and what I meant was that there are AI viewers who had other favorites (Jason, Archie, whoever) and still purchased Billie Jean by David Cook. All I was saying is that the amount a song sold does not directly correlate to how many fans that AI contestant has, because not only his fans bought the song.
    I hope that clears it up.

  • Trina

    Truthfully we don’t know who from the AI fanbase is still buying the album. I ADORED Elliott but due to lots of problems I had going on and financial issues at the time I didn’t get around to buying his album until about a month after it came out, and I very much knew it was out all along.

    The one thing I wish would stop, and that I’m still seeing around (not here) is the claim he sold well due to pre-orders. I’ll fully admit the pre-orders helped him for the first week and maybe even the 2nd week, but now? Eight weeks later? Really, he could have easily plummeted and pre-orders are no longer in the equation.

    Whatever happened to HDD updates?

    It’s possible we just may not get them due to the inauguration.

  • http://www.myspace.com/gwendolyndiane GwendolynD

    Whatever happened to HDD updates?

    What ever happened, indeed….

    Why is everything italicized? :dry_tb:

  • Jolene

    What ever happened, indeedà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦

    Even if they don’t give updates, I hope they at least give the final prediction. It’d be pretty bizzare to only give the first update and end it there… LOL
    Anyway, if not today, tomorrow we’ll know. This week I expect DC to be mentioned even if he doesn’t make the Top 10, since he’s expected to have quite a percentage increase, and that’s an anomaly this time of year.

    The one thing I wish would stop, and that Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m still seeing around (not here) is the claim he sold well due to pre-orders.

    Eh, those who want to look for excuses will look for them wherever they can… Any pre-orders have long ago stopped playing a part, and the sales are stable and good. I guess the sales from this week on will be “blamed” on AI bumps? LOL

  • americanidolfan102

    HDD update

    1 1 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 42,161
    FEARLESS
    2 2 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 33,027
    DARK HORSE
    4 3 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 28,766
    I AM… SASHA FIERCE
    3 4 KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 20,635
    808S & HEARTBREAK
    19 5 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 19,205
    DAVID COOK
    6 6 BRITNEY SPEARS JIVE/JLG 19,175
    CIRCUS
    8 7 JAMIE FOXX J RECORDS/RMG 19,055
    INTUITION
    7 8 KEYSHIA COLE GEFFEN 18,538
    A DIFFERENT ME
    — 9 NOTORIOUS BAD BOY/ATLANTIC 16,099
    SOUNDTRACK
    5 10 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 15,787
    SOUNDTRACK

    Cook still at number 5

  • Kirsten

    Guess what, David Cook won. They are no longer competing

    I’m sorry. I must have missed it. I don’t see a single person arguing that David Cook didn’t deserve to win. I don’t even see anybody trying to make them compete now. All we are talking about is what constitutes a successful single and whether successful singles can contribute to moving units. I don’t see how that is competing. We are just using facts to discuss factors that impact albums sales and what qualifies as a hit.

    Archie could go on to move 70 million units and win every single Grammy (including the one for Best Polka) in a year and he would still have lost American Idol. I don’t go in for “He should have won because he did such-and-such a year later”. Who ever wins wins. Just because somebody wins at Wimbledon, doesn’t mean they should have won the French Open. And for the record, I don’t see anybody here arguing that “Crush” moving more units means that Archie deserved to win. Did I miss something MJ deleted?

    I believe that it is possible to have a discussion about albums and singles and not have it be a competition with each other. Also, I believe that if somebody gets something or sells more of something than somebody else, it doesn’t mean that the other person is crap and is useless and should get out of the music business. Nobody can be the best at everything and nobody should expect them to be. It’s not even a competition.

    I simply donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t know those sales numbers. I assume you do, or else how could we claim that those songs performed better than LO?

    I know what those singles sold in three days (finale singles had 4 days) and by any measure, those are amazing numbers for something that had been sung on the show weeks or months before. Perhaps I’m easily impressed.

    And, even if we do, weà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re talking at least 30 million à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“audience impressionsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  in a single 1:30 minute period. Thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s no slouch promotion!

    I’m reasonably certain that more people have heard “Light On” on the TV than heard “Time Of My Life” on the finale. Heck, people who watched in Tivo didn’t even get to hear the song because the show ran over. The ratings for SNL was something like 15 million alone. That’s half way there already.

    And by Kirstenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s HDD updates, DCTR might be in the Top 5 album sales this week.

    I’m sorry. I don’t do the HDD updates so I do not deserve this credit.

    Arenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t CDà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s often certified platinum when theyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“shippedà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  platinum but not necessarily à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“soldà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  platinum? I would guess that DCà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s current number would put him in the range of when other artists have been certified. So, I wonder, do they not do that anymore? Has his label just not applied for certification yet?

    Yes. Most albums are certified based on shipments. It’s the labels responsibility to apply for the certifications. Maybe they just haven’t gotten around to doing it. Some labels are pretty slow.

    Digital albums and downloads are certified based on sales because they are “shipped” directly to the consumer as they are sold.

  • jumpstart

    HDD just updated …

    NOW IN: 68.46%

    LW TW artist / album label power index
    1 1 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 42,161
    FEARLESS
    2 2 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 33,027
    DARK HORSE
    4 3 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 28,766
    I AM… SASHA FIERCE
    3 4 KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 20,635
    808S & HEARTBREAK
    9 5 NOW 29 UME 20,129
    VARIOUS ARTISTS
    19 6 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 19,205
    DAVID COOK

  • SpenserJ

    Because Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m talking about hardcore fans – not casual fans, not AI fans, hardcore Cook and Archuleta fans, meaning the fans who follow their releases and know when a single comes out and when an album comes out.

    Ah, okay, I see what you mean then.

    Now see, what we have here is a simple misunderstanding. I said à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Cook fansà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ , not à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“AI fansà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ , and what I meant was that there are AI viewers who had other favorites (Jason, Archie, whoever) and still purchased Billie Jean by David Cook.

    Aha again. Now I get what you meant. Apologies for forcing you to be so literal LOL.

  • americanidolfan102

    37 JENNIFER HUDSON ARISTA/RMG 4,500
    JENNIFER HUDSON

    43 DAVID ARCHULETA 19/JIVE/ZLG 3,375
    DAVID ARCHULETA

  • americanidolfan102

    NOW IN: 73.27%

    LW TW artist / album label power index
    1 1 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 42,161
    FEARLESS
    2 2 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 33,027
    DARK HORSE
    4 3 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 28,766
    I AM… SASHA FIERCE
    3 4 KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 20,635
    808S & HEARTBREAK
    9 5 NOW 29 UME 20,129
    VARIOUS ARTISTS
    19 6 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 19,205
    DAVID COOK

  • frogcooke

    hmm interesting hdd updates… most of the stuff didnt gain anything in the updates..

  • jumpstart

    ^ Very interesting indeed.

  • frogcooke

    they are probably screwy again this week. I think there was an issue last week too.

  • mac

    I will be in total shock if DC ends up back in the top 10! (And it looks like he probably will) Woot! Woot!

  • Jolene

    Apologies for forcing you to be so literal LOL.

    Not a problem at all. (-:

    37 JENNIFER HUDSON ARISTA/RMG 4,500
    JENNIFER HUDSON

    43 DAVID ARCHULETA 19/JIVE/ZLG 3,375
    DAVID ARCHULETA

    That can’t be right, Jennifer and Archie did not budge since the first update.

    DCTR is looking good for at least making 25k. I’m hoping for 28.

  • frogcooke

    Yeah Jolene there are alot on the chart that gained nothing from 36% on… So im a wait for the final update..

  • JudyOhio

    That update doesn’t make any sense. From 36% in to 74% in, HDD shows an additional 7,000 (approx) Cook albums sold, while Hudson stays at exactly the same, 4,500, and Archuleta stays at exactly the same at, 3,375. What place would be selling Cook’s album but not Jennifer’s or Archuleta’s? Makes no sense, obviously a messed up report.

  • frogcooke

    I wouldnt worry about it Judy.. hopefully all is fixed with the final update.

  • JudyOhio

    When does the final usually come in?

    ETA: Well now that’s odd, DA just went from 43 to 47 with still no change in the numbers.

  • frogcooke

    no idea hahaha probably some time today.

  • jumpstart

    mac Jan 20th, 2009 at 4:35 pm

    I will be in total shock if DC ends up back in the top 10! (And it looks like he probably will) Woot! Woot!

    I’ll be ecstastic with 19k … anything beyond that is gravy.

  • Jolene

    Yeah, I’m not getting attached to the ranking. I think it’ll end up at #11 just to spite us. LOL

    But I do care about the numbers. 28K would mean 890k total and an almost guaranteed leap over the 900k mark next week. That’s what I want.

  • frogcooke

    yeah I wouldnt get attached to the ranking numbers just yet lol

  • Trina

    Not to sound selfish but I wouldn’t be happy with 19,000 because then that would mean he didn’t gain anything from the AI pimping. Even a small gain I would be ok with but not the same amount from last week.

    28,000 seems like a longshot but what do I know. He doesn’t need to hit a certain perfect number.

  • JudyOhio

    Thing is, once anyone drops out of the top 50, there will be this big, big wait for the final numbers on those.

  • sunchick

    Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m not saying the Cook isnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t moving albums. Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m not saying that Cook sucks. Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m not saying everybody hates à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Light Onà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ . Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m not saying there are no hits on the album. Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m just saying that à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Light Onà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  isnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t worth the effort.

    I didn’t think you were saying Cook sucks LOL. I just disagree that LO is a disappointment or plodder or whatever. I do feel ya re: the last sentence. I’m ready to see Cook perform something else from the album on his next TV appearance. Frig, I spazzed over a fifteen second clip of A Daily AntheM played on AI, because it’s my personal fave. I’m curious to see how other songs are received because I don’t think LO is the best song he’s got in his aresenal. I think artistically Declaration would have been a better choice as a first single because it makes more of statement about the album and David’s musical identity. All in all, though, I like LO and think it’s served it’s purpose fairly well.

    But, regardless, something spurred a bunch of sales for him (Daughtry)

    I didn’t watch season 5, but I remember seeing Daughtry all over TV talking about his shock boot, and how he was offered the lead singing gig for Fuel based on his AI performances or something. And zomg, will he take the offer, or will he go solo? WWDD? (What will Daughtry do?) Entertainment news programs were actually covering this monumental decision. Regis and Kelly chatted it up. I remember thinking, WTF, do people really care this much about a fourth place finisher’s career decision? Apparently, they did. It was pretty much a “most!shocking!boot!EVER!” media storm, from an AI outsider pop culture observer’s perspective. And that phenomenon, my dear Watson, is what I believe probably sparked Daughtry mania when his album dropped. That phenomenon backed up by heavy label support, and 19’s love, and decent songs, of course. It was like all that outrage was justified when Daughtry became a success. Radio followed suit, and the Daughtry machine rolled on and on. And, sadly, again from an outsider’s perspective, that whole “Daughtry should have wonnnn…” thing hurt Taylor’s media image. I’ve seen mixed reviews for his first album and never heard it myself. But really, I had the impression that he could have successfully contacted Ray Charles through a medium, collaborated with him from beyond, put out THAT album, and still have been considered a NotDaughtry footnote at the time.

    So what does this have to do with the price of tea in China? I don’t agree that Daughtry is the valid comparison for Cook. Daughtry is a singular AI phenonmenon all his own, the poster child for shock boot success, and probably always will be. This is how I look at it…. Jordin, Blake, Archie, and Cook are all kind of in the same boat. THey are the AI grads from the post-Season 5 era, the 4 most popular of that group to put out records in the midst of the slowing musical sales climate, the AI ratings slippage, and the vague idea that Season 5 was the pinnacle of the AI zeitgeist and it’s all gonna be downhill from there. THey are also the first peeps who are possibly effected by the decision to make AI performances widely available for downloads. So, not only do people in general care less about AI, people can now buy singles during the show and immediately afterwards to support their faves and have a little souvenier, which lessens the potential buying frenzy when the proper single and album hit the stores, and also, people buy less music, period. To me, it makes the most sense to compare Cook, Jorin, Archie, and Blake to each other, if you are going to make cross-AI comparisons at all, because they have dealt with issues that past AI grads did not have to face.

    Doing that, I think you can make a case for either Jordin or Cook being the most successful of those four, Blake the least sucessful, obviously, and Archie falling somewhere in the middle, closer to Cook and Jordin than not. Jordin of course has the monster singles and Top 40 radio ubiquitousness, but her singles never really translate to brisk album sales. It’s been what…two years and she has yet to sell platinum? Is that right? Well, that makes me wonder…Do people have an investment in Jordin as an artist, and will they show up for album number two? OTOH, Cook was slower to be embraced by radio, hence the slow build of LO. But he plugged away and made headway and I personally think is now on his way to being a regular HAC presence with some Top 40 crossover. What Cook managed to do that Jordin did not, though, is aquire a bigger loyal following coming off the show that does seem to be invested in him as an artist and seem happy enough with his musical direction to snatch up copies of his album at much brisker clip. I don’t agree with discounting this as irrelevant citing the fickle nature of AI fandom. I have a sneaking suspicion that a sizable chunk of both Daughtry and Carrie’s sales are people that have at least tangental knowledge of them from AI. And beyond that, as hinted before, the whole “fickle” thing isn’t really isolated to AI fandom. It’s just bound to happen when you were the big thing, and then people are suddenly all about the next. big. thing.

    Case in point…my two favorite bands, The Killers and My Chem Romance. TK’s Hot Fuss was like a 3X platinum monster, one of those special flukey situations where there’s a perfect storm of buzz and singles which results in mondo sales. Their follow up albums will never sell anywhere near that, I think Sam’s Town (which IMO is a better album) went platinum and Day and Age probably will too eventually…but they are respectable in sales and represent a loyal fanbase who dig their sound. And then there’s MCR, whose albums have sold well, but all about the same, all in the platinum range. They never really had the flukey smash thing happen but apparently the fans they earned, they kept. At present time, both of these bands have a similar size loyal following that allows them to continue to put out music and establish careers with a certain degree of longevity. Now, if you look at TK’s sales, you can say oh look, their fanbase is more fickle. But really, that’s just the nature of big smash phenomenons. People get on the bandwagon, people get off the bandwagon, and the trick is getting enough people to stick around.

    Cookie strikes me as an MCR kind of situation where he’s got a nice core fanbase of diehard and casual fans both that won’t really errode much if his product continues to be put out with comparable quality. He still has a great chance for another single to at best spur massive platinum-plus sales and break through Top 40 radio in an even more significant way, and at the very least I do believe a combination of a second/third etc single plus Cook and the EEB getting out there and playing gigs will grow that core base a bit. Most importantly, what I think he’s done so far with the album and LO is created a brand that people dig and want to support. I think it’s less obvious that Jordin has branded herself as successfully but she’s certainly established enough of a Top 40 presence to earn a foot in the door on radio with her next album. Archuleta’s kind of in between the two….branded himself well enough to sell albums better than Jordin but not as well as Cook, made quick inroads to top40 radio with Crush, quicker easier inroads than Cook made with LO, but not quite at Jordin’s level.

    Course, mileage, and all. And there’s still a lot left up in the air. ALso, yay for Cook hanging on to top ten so far with HDD.

  • Hazehel

    I suspect someone at HDD had just one drink too many. Wait till tomorrow for the proper figures I guess.

  • http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/profile.php?id=587900002&ref=name cruzceleste

    ^Wow that is a long post…. lol

  • Jolene

    28,000 seems like a longshot but what do I know. He doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t need to hit a certain perfect number.

    Awww, but I like perfect round numbers. LOL

    No, I know, I’ll be happy with any increase too, and 28k would require about a 50% rise, which is far above and beyond anything remotely normal for January (even 30% was considered a long shot a few days ago) so I’m definitely not holding all hopes on that figure.
    Anything that gets us closer to 900k by February is amazing.

  • americanidolfan102

    HDD:

    NOW IN: FINAL

    LW TW artist / album label power index % change
    1 1 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 63,095 -14%
    FEARLESS
    4 2 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 51,176 5%
    I AM… SASHA FIERCE
    2 3 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 48,163 -10%
    DARK HORSE
    — 4 NOTORIOUS BAD BOY/ATLANTIC 39,005 —
    SOUNDTRACK
    3 5 KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 38,912 -23%
    808S & HEARTBREAK
    5 6 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 38,711 -9%
    SOUNDTRACK
    6 7 BRITNEY SPEARS JIVE/JLG 33,942 -15%
    CIRCUS
    8 8 JAMIE FOXX J RECORDS/RMG 32,592 0%
    INTUITION
    7 9 KEYSHIA COLE GEFFEN 31,977 -12%
    A DIFFERENT ME
    19 10 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 30,263 58%
    DAVID COOK

  • mac

    Top 10 Baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Over 30,0000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Jolene

    O-M-G-!!!!!!!!

  • Trina

    HOLY SHIT! How much of an increase is that from his SS numbers last week??

  • SashaB

    30,263 58%

    OMG. Top 10? Are you kidding me. Wow. Thanks for the numbers. Awesome.

  • mary111

    OMG, that is amazing. I am in shock!!!!

  • weareallinnocent

    Kirsten said: “I know what those singles sold in three days (finale singles had 4 days) and by any measure, those are amazing numbers for something that had been sung on the show weeks or months before. Perhaps Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m easily impressed.”

    I was under the impression, perhaps mistakenly (and please correct me if I am!), that songs sung on the show before the finale reported the entire week’s sales, as they were available for sale for the entire week. Were all those numbers really far more impressive than LO’s first week, which actually was a partial week since it released on Tuesday, right? I really don’t remember, if I ever knew. I just know a bunch of songs charted that week, and I recall being amazed that Dream Big outsold The World I Know. :-) That’s my complete present recollection. I’m sure you have the comparative numbers, so please can you share all those that charted? TIA.

    Kirsten said: “Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m reasonably certain that more people have heard à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Light Onà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  on the TV than heard à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Time Of My Lifeà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  on the finale. Heck, people who watched in Tivo didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t even get to hear the song because the show ran over. The ratings for SNL was something like 15 million alone. Thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s half way there already.”

    Apples and green beans comparison to me. From when to when do you measure LO’s TV audience and how do you compare resulting sales? Did LO premiere on national TV? If not, then how can we measure relative first week performance from initial TV audience impressions? I suppose we could find an appropriate (though not perfect) measure by picking something more similar and measuring the relative percentage sales bump, but what would that be? Olympics or Oprah for TOML versus SNL for LO? And, wouldn’t the week of sales also be relevant given the natural ebb and flow of an aging single? Even then, to me, we’ve only approached an apples and oranges comparison because TOML is inspirational pop and LO is credible (imo and ala Cornell) rock. Anyway, you get my point, and I get yours too. :-)

    On to better things: YAY for HDD updates, go DCTR!!!!

    ETA: I’m helpless with multiple blockquotes so please forgive any resulting formatting craze.

    ETA2: AHHHHHHHHHHH, crossing fingers and toes, chanting and lighting incense, knocking on wood and hoping upon hope that HDD got it right! And, forget the rest of the conversation in this post, NUMBERS ARE ALL THAT MATTERS to me right now!!! LMAO at myself. ;-P

  • mary111

    and up 58%!!! WOW

  • JudyOhio

    deleted, due to not seeing the HDD finals above the larger post there, sorry.

  • Jolene

    58% increase? Are you f***ing with me?! Holy COW!!!
    OK, yeah, if that doesn’t get some media attention, nothing will. Freck.
    Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I think this kind of increase is unheard of for January. Am I mistaken?

    Is Archie in the Top 50?
    Oh, and someone post how many HDD expects #11 to sell… it it a threat? Is it very close?

  • mac

    DC had the highest percentage increase in the top 50. Next was John Legend with 39%. That is freakin amazing.

  • http://www.myspace.com/gwendolyndiane GwendolynD

    YES!!!!! :clap_tb:

  • JudyOhio

    yes DA made in the top 50

  • Kirsten

    Is Archie in the Top 50?

    — 50 DAVID ARCHULETA 19/JIVE/ZLG 9,032 —
    DAVID ARCHULETA

  • SashaB

    Guess what, David Cook won. They are no longer competing

    Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m sorry. I must have missed it. I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t see a single person arguing that David Cook didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t deserve to win.

    ^^ That wasn’t what I was raising the issue or point about. I had issues with the odd analogies and logic that had been raised. So, yeah, it made me confuzzled. I certainly was nor have I ever suggested or intimated that anyone is suggesting the contrary, or that David Cook didn’t deserve to win. (I’ve been posting on here for months, so you need only go back). I was merely referring back to what one reviewer quoted by Richard Rushfield said: the Davids are not in competition and AI7 is over. And even on the show the competition was fabricated and constructed for good TV drama. So, yes, I do think it really is apples and oranges post AI career. I also do find comparing Pop to Rock artists to be difficult. I do find comparing DCTR and DATR difficult. Other than the fact that they were both AI contestants who released debut albums within a week of each other, they really don’t have too much in common. But again, if people want to compare flawed paradigms, feel free to do so. In RL, it’s not practical or prudent or material from a business point of view, but hey, this is a friendly discussion and blog. Clearly some hackles were raised, which was not my intent. So mileage.

    And I would say that LO is a successful single. Not sure how one defines success here or post AI in this economy? Maybe we should define what success is before we move forward? I had issues with the specious logic that was being exhibited by some who were trying to guess something that ir rather hard to quantify or measure. Yes, we arm chair quarter back all the time, but it doesn’t change the facts that LO and Crush were the lead of singles. I would also argue that both helped move albums sales. But is that a fact? Dunno. I do know that DCTR just sold over 30K units this week. And LO sold over 500K last week.

  • frogcooke

    for who asked #11:

    9 11 NOW 29 UME 26,905 -11%
    VARIOUS ARTISTS

  • americanidolfan102

    Oh, and someone post how many HDD expects #11 to sellà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ it it a threat? Is it very close?

    no NOW 29 is about 4k away from DCTR

    9 11 NOW 29 UME 26,905 -11%

  • SpenserJ

    So, not only do people in general care less about AI, people can now buy singles during the show and immediately afterwards to support their faves and have a little souvenier, which lessens the potential buying frenzy when the proper single and album hit the stores,

    Interesting. That never really occured to me, but I think it’s a pretty valid point.

    Well, that makes me wonderà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦Do people have an investment in Jordin as an artist, and will they show up for album number two?

    My guess would be, no. Jordin’s a cute girl with a nice voice, but there really isn’t anything that compelling about her. She doesn’t get enough of the extraneous “ink” to deeply penetrate the pop culture. Her TV appearances don’t illicit much buzz (except that one time she said something perceived as controversial). I just find her totally unexciting. Barring the release of a super-awesome CD, or another duet with a currently hot, big seller, I think that sales will be pretty dismal for Jordin the second time around.

    That may have been a rhetorical-type question, but I felt like answering it LOL.

  • JudyOhio

    DA could fall out of the top 50 when the official report comes out. What was his ranking last week?

  • jpfan

    Just as I predicted, Cook makes it back into the top 10 by selling about 10,500K more albums than the week before. The Idol boost is 56% and I’d love it if someone posted the Idol boost numbers the show has given prior pimpees..

    I’m not sure that generating an additional 10K of album sales in the past from great Idol exposure would be that much to cheer about. But this is January, 2009 and sales suck. That said, it’s all good in the end. Nice to see Archie back in the top 50.

  • mac

    I just want to say that AI was brilliant this year. They grabbed onto a golden opportunity and that was to promote the Idol winner. Look at the results. Promo is promo. Can never have too much and it is all good. I can’t believe they didn’t do that for past seasons. It is a win win situation for everyone. I can’t see any negatives from it, and I won’t believe anyone who says it is bad. I hope too, that they will promote Kelly with her new single/album also. I love to see past successes of idols on the show.

  • Kirsten

    I was under the impression, perhaps mistakenly (and please correct me if I am!), that songs sung on the show before the finale reported the entire weekà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s sales, as they were available for sale for the entire week.

    I recall them being pulled from sale after the finale. You only had until Wednesday night to buy them. I remember spending the weekend before the finale figuring out if I wanted to buy any songs (and the howls of protest on Thursday when suddenly all those songs were gone). They only had 3 days worth of sales.

    Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m sure you have the comparative numbers, so please can you share all those that charted? TIA.

    Here you go:
    1 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Time of My Lifeà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  236,024 (NEW) Total: 236,024
    7 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Dream Bigà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  111,052 (NEW) Total: 111,052
    9 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“I Still Havenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t Found What Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m Looking Forà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  97,868 (NEW) Total: 97,868
    10 Jordin Sparks à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“No Airà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  87,518 (2%; lw 85,455) Total: 1,866,343 (7)
    14 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“The World I Knowà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  79,907 (NEW) Total: 79,907
    16 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Imagineà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  71,178 (NEW) Total: 71,178
    19 Carrie Underwood à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Last Nameà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  64,143 (193%; lw 21,915) Total: 181,373 (54)
    21 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“I Donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t Want To Miss a Thingà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  59,571 (NEW) Total: 59,571
    24 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Billie Jeanà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  56,344 (NEW) Total: 56,344
    26 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t Let the Sun Go Down on Meà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  50,653 (NEW) Total: 50,653
    28 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“In this Momentà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  49,134 (NEW) Total: 49,134
    29 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Always Be My Babyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  46,577 (NEW) Total: 46,577
    32 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Helloà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  42,254 (NEW) Total: 42,254
    41 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Music of the Nightà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  35,753 (NEW) Total: 35,753
    51 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Eleanor Rigbyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  28,397 (NEW) Total: 28,397
    60 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m Aliveà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  25,206 (NEW) Total: 25,206
    66 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Little Sparrowà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  23,512 (NEW) Total: 23,512
    68 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Hungry Like the Wolf (American Idol Studio)à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  22,875 (NEW) Total: 22,875
    69 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Innocent (American Idol Studio)à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  22,785 (NEW) Total: 22,785
    76 Jordin Sparks à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“One Step at a Timeà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  19,793 (446%; lw 3,627) Total: 74,065 (OFF)
    81 Jason Castro à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Hallelujahà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  19,312 (NEW) Total: 19,312
    82 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Day Tripperà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  19,073 (NEW) Total: 19,073
    84 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Longer (American Idol Studio Version)à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  18,992 (NEW) Total: 18,992
    90 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“All Right Nowà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  17,948 (NEW) Total: 17,948
    92 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Think of Me (American Idol Studio)à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  17,653 (NEW) Total: 17,653
    96 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Angelsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  16,893 (NEW) Total: 16,893
    97 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Happy Togetherà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  16,853 (NEW) Total: 16,853
    102 Jason Castro à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Over the Rainbowà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  16,484 (NEW) Total: 16,484
    107 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“When You Believe (American Idol)à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  15,863 (NEW) Total: 15,863
    110 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Love Me Tender (American Idol)à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  15,108 (NEW) Total: 15,108
    128 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Long and Winding Roadà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  13,675 (NEW) Total: 13,675
    136 Brooke White à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Let it Beà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  12,254 (NEW) 12,254
    149 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Sweet Caroline (American Idol)à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  11,050 (NEW) Total: 11,050
    161 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Youà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re the Voice (American Idol)à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  10,279 (NEW) Total: 10,279
    171 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Another Day in Paradise (American Idolà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  9,756 (NEW) Total: 9,756
    187 Michael Johns à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Dream On (American Idol Studio) 9,079 (NEW) Total: 9,079

    Did LO premiere on national TV? If not, then how can we measure relative first week performance from initial TV audience impressions?

    No, it did not premiere on national TV. It’s just that after it had had more media exposure, it still hadn’t reached the point of sales that TOML reached in those four days. I can’t remember when that point was, but it was probably in November. I thought that LO had pretty decent first week’s numbers. It’s the following weeks that disapointed me. Especially the failure of the SNL appearance (in front of something like 15 million people who would seem to be the target audience for such music) having much of an impact.

    Maybe we should define what success is.

    I think that songs have to move around a million units (based on the numbers I posted earlier about 71 songs going platinum last year) to be considered a hit. Around 2M for big hits. Even higher for mega-hits. I seriously think the RIAA is going to change the definition of a “platinum” for downloads soon (as they did in 2006 when it went from 200K to 1M).

  • SashaB

    Wow, jpfan, good guess. Can you imagine what would be said, if sales stayed flat after the AI pimpage? Hee!

    In this economy and given the depressed sales for January, I’ll take 30K. Congrats to Archie as well. Great that AI8 promos seemed to lift his sales as well.

    ETA:

    Well, if we are defining 1 million units is the benchmark of success, then I’ll say yay for the successful Magic Rainbow. Hee. And if Daenarys is right, LO might get there, too, in a few months. Slow and steady. Awesome.

  • Trina

    LOL he didn’t even perform on AI . How much of a boost should he have gotten? If we’re talking about the “infomercial” that’s been talked about so much I’m sure that contributed a great deal to LO jumping like 30 spots and staying there for several days.

  • weareallinnocent

    Thanks for that chart, Kirsten. That’s some IMPRESSIVE CHIT!!!

    Never underestimate the emotional investment and impulse buying prowess of AI finale viewers. :-)

    Am I right that any direct comparison of LO’s and Idol performances’ first week’s sales has LO coming in only slightly under Dream Big, so essentially comparable to the highest ranking Idol performance song, as opposed to single? And, that, without a huge TV gig? That’s sort of how I thought it would go, and I’m again impressed, sort of negatively, at how well Dream Big did! LOL

    ETA: I took a quick look and found that LO reported total sales of 226,000 in the week following his SNL appearance. All in all, not that far off of TOML after huge TV promo. But the difference is notable, I agree. I just don’t think they’re fairly comparable for all the reasons noted, and probably others not. :-)

  • sunchick

    ^Wow that is a long postà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦. lol

    Yeah, I do that every now and again. Where have you been? :laugh_tb: It’s a skill, yeah that’s the ticket. Came in quite handy in college…I think my B.S. stands for Bull Shitter. :cool2_tb:

  • JudyOhio

    Kirsten, do you know DA’s ranking on ss last week? I think my post got lost up thread.

  • Jolene

    Kirsten, do you know DAà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s ranking on ss last week?

    I’m not Kirsten, but it was 62.

  • primeminister

    Holy cow. What a great increase in sales for Cook!

    (And DANG this thread is so freaking LONG.)

  • SpenserJ

    JPfan, apparently you are psychic :)

    I love to see past successes of idols on the show.

    Me too. I think it’s always a good thing to have previous contestants come back so the audience can see what they’re up to.

    And even on the show the competition was fabricated and constructed for good TV drama.

    I’ll quibble with this a wee bit. While any excessive competitiveness between the contestants may be fabricated (which I didn’t really see any of anyway), the competition itself is not fabricated. AI is at its core a legitimate competition. A contest for the most votes. And, I don’t believe for a second that each and every one of those contestants isn’t there to win.

    Other than the fact that they were both AI contestants who released debut albums within a week of each other, they really donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t have too much in common. But again, if people want to compare flawed paradigms, feel free to do so. In RL, ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s not practical or prudent or material from a business point of view, but hey, this is a friendly discussion and blog.

    I propose that from a business point of view the fact that they are both former AI contestants is currently the most important thing about these two people. In the eyes of the public, at this point, that’s who they are. They aren’t “pop-rocker” and “pop-singer guy”. They’re “hey, it’s that guy from the TV show”. That’s the biggest thing they have going for them right now – their recognizability from the biggest TV show on the planet. And, that’s a huge thing.

    Once one of these guys sells 3 or 4 million albums and establishes themselves in their genre, then maybe that’s the time to start comparing them to other artists who’ve achieved success through “traditional” methods. Until then, I submit that these guys are “Reality TV Contestants trying to establish music careers” and can reasonably be compared as such.

  • JudyOhio

    Thanks Jolene!

  • anijsch

    a little souvenier, which lessens the potential buying frenzy when the proper single and album hit the stores

    or it could be a reminder during the waiting time every time they hear the artist in their playlist

  • shell29

    Nearly 600K in sales for Archie’s album (so far) might not be considered by some as doing “spectacularly well”, but I don’t think it’s anything to sneeze at either. I think if I would compare Archie’s path to anyone from season six, it would be his BFF Jordin, not Blake Lewis. Blake’s album was pretty much dead by January, and both of his singles flopped. Crush will probably match the sales of Tattoo (or come very close) before all is said and done. How his subsequent singles will perform is anyone’s guess, but I won’t be surprised if he has another hit on his hands with ALTNOY.

    As for LO, I consider it a success and I’m happy to see it sell gold. Is it a huge success? In my opinion, no. But that’s OK-the song’s not dead yet and the album has sold very well thus far. Who knows where LO will eventually end up saleswise. I won’t get into the debate about whether it was the right choice for a lead single because it’s water under the bridge at this point and we know a new single is coming fairly soon.

  • Jolene

    Thanks Jolene!

    You’re welcome, Judy!
    Nice to see that all the Idols got a bump from AI returning. I wonder if Jordin passed Platinum yet… she was close.

  • mac

    101 Mediabase Adds for Kelly on Top 40! I don’t think I have ever seen that many adds. Holy Sh*t!

  • Incipit

    Ah, finally. Numbers and facts! And what lovely numbers and facts they are.

    The permeability of the AI Bubble. What a wonderfully apt idea, and my apologies, I didn’t scroll back and see who said it.

    I’ve stepped inside that bubble, for this season only, and I don’t name myself an American Idol fan, because I never saw the show before, and don’t plan to again.I know I’m not alone, however. What I am is a Hard Core David Cook Fan. Period.
    I bought his music the first day it was available, I cannot imagine anyone calling themselves ‘hardcore’ who would wait around to do so. That’s a different paradigm than I’m in.

    If it weren’t for boards like this one, he’d be on my Google alerts and I’d follow the ups and downs as closely as I could, but the Permeable AI Bubble that’s here and other places has given me access to much more…for which I am very grateful….and often very confounded by the tone of the discussion. That’s when I become one of MJ’s “Lurky loos”…And if that’s a pejorative like “looky loo” has always been – doesn’t bother me any.

    Any time I see concrete facts and numbers posted, and unbiased logic employed in their discussion, you guys have my full attention, it gives me a frame of reference I wouldn’t otherwise have.

    For which, many thanks.

  • SashaB

    Uh,yes, the Davids can attribute their career success to date to AI. But I kind of assumed that was an accepted and assumed given here. Heh. But okay, yes, I agree that AI was the foundation on which all AI contestants and winners from Kelly, Carrie and the Davids share – their career foundation started with AI. Which is kinda the AI brand premise, no?

  • sleepyinsomniac

    See that’s where I get lost again. We only have 1 week of the AI performance sales to compare to LO. For me this is an even more bizarre comparison than the one with the imaginary sales numbers of some other single. First of all, LO outsold all but 2 of those performances. And unless someone is privy to the total sales numbers of Billie Jean or ABMB, I am not sure what proper comparison can be made with songs that were only available for download for a limited amount of time with pimping from a widely watched television show whose audience one would think is pretty predisposed to purchasing these songs. And if TOML is the benchmark we’re using, I still argue that it has had more if not equal pimping with LO. Talk to me about underperforming if Cook premiers his next single in AI and the sales numbers aren’t at par with his AI performance sales numbers. I’m just not buying this comparison. In any case, I’m looking at things this way… if and when a new single is released (and it’s one of those “better” singles) then it would just mean that the sales that were supposed to have been made will be made then. The sales numbers that people are saying that DCTR and that single should have made will still be made. So what’s the rush?

    I any case, holy crap at 30,000 plus! I’m also very interested about the LO single sales this week.

    Also, great to see Kelly getting so much love.

  • sma11ie

    Cook makes it back into the top 10 by selling about 10,500K more albums than the week before. The Idol boost is 56%

    That’s assuming sales would’ve stayed flat from the prior week, which is kind of a big assumption, IMO. I didn’t crunch any numbers, but a quick glance at the HDD 50 indicated that the average sales change for the week was definitely negative, so I think the boost is more than 56%. How much more, I have no idea heh. I also think it makes more sense to think in terms of percentage boost rather than units (i.e. 10K additional units sold), because seasonal sales trends are driven by consumer behavior. If consumers in general are not shopping for CDs in January, extra promotion in January should be expected to improve sales relative to January, not November– IMO anyway.

    Anyway this discussion is fun, but I’m just excited for DC back in the top 10, hope it sticks!

  • SpenserJ

    Which is kinda the AI brand premise, no?

    Agreed on all counts. My point was only that I think it’s completely fair to compare the success of one reality show contestant to another regardless of their genre. I believe it becomes more fair to make genre related comparisons once someone has moved beyond the AI brand to create a brand of their own.

    Anyway this discussion is fun, but Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m just excited for DC back in the top 10, hope it sticks!

    I think it is always a good thing to stay in the top 10. It keeps your name front and center on the “leader board” so to speak. I believe there are a lot of lazy consumers out there that never look past the best sellers CD rack in Walmart or past the Top 10 list on iTunes. So yes, remaining in the Top 10 (or reentering) is a good thing.

  • SashaB

    Okay, well, if you want to compare the three AI contestants who released major label albums this year because they all happened to have released albums feel free. Of those three:Kristy Lee Cook, David Archuleta, and David Cook, well David Cook is winning in the overal album sales to date. But it still seems really flawed though. But who knows? maybe Kristy will have major surge and sell more than the Davids? I mean, we never can tell, can we?

    But, to each his own.

    DCTR is also #6 on Walmart.come for CDs and #11 for digital downloads. So I do believe the AI pimpage and rediscovery, if you will has helped.

  • http://myspace.com/girlgeek mj

    and often very confounded by the tone of the discussion.

    Well, you see, this is NOT a hard-core David Cook fansite. And I don’t understand how anybody could confuse it as such. There are places to cheerlead, fanwank and preach to the choir. My blog isn’t it.

    I AM a fan of the show. I rooted for David Cook Season 7. But Season 7 is OVER. I wish David all the luck in the world, but I don’t live or die by his comings and goings. His record sits on my shelf with the rest of my record collection at the moment.

    Thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s when I become one of MJà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Lurky loosà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦And if thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s a pejorative like à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“looky looà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  has always been – doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t bother me any.

    I can tell when there’s negative chatter at the other boards. That’s when the “usual suspects” come crawling out of the woodwork. Yes, it irks me. Sorry.

    I don’t expect the so-called hard-core fans who aren’t fans of the show to stick around much longer. Why would you? I’m all about Season 8 right now.

  • Incipit

    I can tell when thereà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s negative chatter at the other boards. Thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s when the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“usual suspectsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  come crawling out of the woodwork. Yes, it irks me. Sorry.

    Ooh, Can I be Keyser SÃ ¶ze? No, seriously, I was right here the night the “Lurky Loo” comment was posted.

    MJ, I’m sorry too if I hurt your feelings, you have a justly famous Blog, and it ‘is’ all about Idol. And I’m not. Nor have I ever fanwanked, etc in your house. I come for the number talk, but it certainly isn’t necessary for me to post to enjoy that.

  • http://myspace.com/girlgeek mj

    MJ, I’m sorry too if I hurt your feelings

    I’m fine, thanks. :). If the negative chatter was just about me, I’d be less irritated.