Monday Morning Mediabase Update – 01/05/09

Well look at that, 3 idols in the top 10 on AC. That’s rather nice to see.

AC is the chart where we can relive idol singles battles 6 months later. LOL. Adult Contemporary Radio – for those who just can’t get enough of fanwarring. Heh.

Nice that JHud’s song is moving up even though she’s not around to promote it.

David Cook:
à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Time of My Lifeà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ : ^1 AC (1)
à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Light Onà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ : ^23 Pop (23), ^30 AC (90)

Awesome numbers for David Cook! :thumbup_tb:

HAC has now been added (previously, AllAccess had been having issues with the HAC chart).

I guess this comes under radio news? Maybe real news. Anyway, Kelly Clarkson will be doing a Z100 Party Plane event and her release date is listed as March 24th (for the album). Kelly will be performing her new song. I can’t figure out what day the Z100 performance will be, though.

Z100 Event

Kirsten, thanks so much for these updates. Very much appreciated. Truly.

David Cook:
à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Time of My Lifeà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ : ^1 AC (1)
à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Light Onà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ : ^11 HAC (11), ^23 Pop (23), ^30 AC (90)

I know that Magic Rainbow shouldn’t surprise me, but really? #1 still? I find this hilarious. Awesome that LO is moving up. Very nice to see. Maybe it’ll be like Magic Rainbow, but then again, it’s not magic. Heh.

Assuming TOML stays #1 on AC for the Billboard chart this Wednesday, how many weeks will that make at #1? 13? 14?

Also, does anyone have a link to that Billboard article about the Top 15 male AC songs? I want to see how it stacks up now.

Thanks, Kirsten.

It looks like we’ll finally get to see what, if anything, LO can do on AC.

I’m also thinking that we’ll start to see adds again this week, which may tell us how some of these songs are doing post-Xmas.

Oh, and I believe HDD will be back up today.

à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Time of My Lifeà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ : ^1 AC (1)

**Sob**

This is GREAT NEWS…for David Cook!!!

This is a very interesting comment from David Cook Org. thanks to Pam.

HAC–DAVID COOK (RCA/RMG) sits at 11* with “Light On” and TAYLOR SWIFT (Big Machine/Universal Republic) at 14* with “Love Story” and both are continuing to grow post-holiday …

Top 40–Songs below the top 20 that are still growing: “Sober” by PINK (LaFace/Zomba) at 21*, “Light On” by DAVID COOK (RCA/RMG) at 23* and “You Found Me” by the FRAY (Epic) at 24* …

Yes. LO has the #9 spincrease on the Top 40 chart. Unfortunately, two of the songs with stronger spincreases are just behind it on the chart, at #24 and #25. But it’s definitely a good sign. LO also has the #8 spincrease on the HAC chart.

In the meantime, Magic Rainbow has the #1 spincrease on AC and is the only song on that chart with more than 1900 spins. (It currently has 2027 monitored spins.) I still think that the time is coming that Coldplay and Jason Mraz will take over the chart for an extended period, but it doesn’t seem like the Rainbow is quite ready for that time, and I think that the Rainbow will hang out in the top 10 even after it cedes #1. It’s just that kind of a rainbow.

This show is just so irrelevant to the music industry isn’t it? Great going for the 3 D’s and the two J’s, is like an idolpallooza!

I have a feeling that this is going to be repeated throughout the year, the Davids, Daughtry, Jordin, Jen, and soon Ms. Clarkson will be ubiquitous. Prepare for total idol domination, lol.

LOL at Crush with a 188 bullet in CHR today. It’s gone off the chart next week no matter what, but that’s still cool that it has one last hurrah with the up arrow. Interesting that the AC chart purged two top 10 songs–usually they purge songs that fall below 10 but i guess they figured they were old enough (they purged Daughtry’s “Feels Like Tonight” and John Mayer’s “Say”). I guess there’s a point where even AC songs get too old.

I’m not expecting a huge amount of adds for ALTNOY tomorrow (its add date). Already looking at some of the CHR stations that have reported (there’s only a few so far), they seem to be adding older songs they didn’t get to before the freeze, like The Fray’s latest, Britney’s “Circus” and T-Pain’s new song. I did notice a couple of stations that auto added “Light On” (which just means that during the freeze they played “Light On” enough for mediabase to consider that an “add”).

Here is the article that shows the solo male artists whose songs have spent the longest time on the AC chart.

http://www.billboard.com/bbcom/chart-beat-chat/chart-beat-t-i-beyonce-david-cook-usher-1003917382.story

I’m not sure how many weeks TOML is up to now either. And I guess the weeks don’t have to be consecutive weeks? The writer doesn’t say that they do, anyway. Looks like 19 weeks is the absolute record.

If TOML remains at #1 on Billboard’s Hot Adult Contemporary chart (which it will), it will be 13 weeks total, including 10 consecutive weeks from 10/11/08 – 12/13/08. The numbers cited by Fred Bronson, however, are for total weeks, so Cook would be tied with Eric Clapton on that list.

LOL at Rainbow not releasing its deathgrip on #1 AC spot. Let it go, Rainbow, let it gooooo!

Viva La Vida and I’m Yours are getting a little long in the tooth to be taking over the spot, being released the same time or before ToML, aren’t they? Or am I underestimating just how slow AC chart moves?

Nice numbers for our Idols all around. Getting excited to see how Kelly will do with her new single…

I think that you’re underestimating how slow the AC chart moves, Michelle. Magic Rainbow was an exception to the rule—it hit Top 30 the week after it was released (so, as quickly as it could chart) and basically sprinted up the chart to top 10. VLV and I’m Yours are more typical for big AC charters—they haven’t been on the AC chart as long as the Rainbow, despite similar or earlier release dates.

To put it in context, on the R&R chart, Magic Rainbow has been on for 32 weeks, VLV has been on for 24 weeks, and I’m Yours has been on for 21 weeks. So, 2 months more than VLV and over 2.5 months longer than I’m Yours.

DC being tied with Clapton for anything would be really cool. Go Magic Rainbow! Get that Clapton-tying week!

I don’t think Viva La Vida is any longer in the tooth than TOML. TOML was released in May – on the 23rd?. Viva La Vida was released on 7 May 2008 with the album. So, it’s two weeks older than TOML. Two weeks hardly qualifies as long in the tooth, unless we are talking dog years.

I’m Yours was released or available on February 12, 2008 – so it’s a few months older.

Magic Rainbow’s dominance just cannot be explained…

Thanks guys. I guess people aren’t kidding when they use terms like “glacial” to describe the AC chart.

I’m more used to thinking in terms of the average Pop single lifespan, of a few months at most (Rihanna seems to put one out every month, lol).

Initial numbers are starting to come in on HitsDailyDouble. Cook at 12 with 13,671 with 37% reporting.

Here comes the January slump. *braces self*

Archie at 34 with 5,745

Oh, yeah. January sales downturn has hit. With 37.1% in:
LW TW artist / album label power index
6 1 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 29,531
DARK HORSE
4 2 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 24,390
I AM… SASHA FIERCE
11 3 KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 23,535
808S & HEARTBREAK
1 4 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 30,198
FEARLESS
10 5 NOW 29 UME 22,326
VARIOUS ARTISTS
2 6 KEYSHIA COLE GEFFEN 21,832
A DIFFERENT ME
3 7 JAMIE FOXX J RECORDS/RMG 20,402
INTUITION
5 8 BRITNEY SPEARS JIVE/ZLG 19,467
CIRCUS
25 9 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 16,778
TAYLOR SWIFT
31 10 AKON SRC/UNIVERSAL MOTOWN 14,793
FREEDOM
34 11 GUNS N’ ROSES GEFFEN 14,575
CHINESE DEMOCRACY
13 12 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 13,671
DAVID COOK
. . .
22 34 DAVID ARCHULETA 19/JIVE/ZLG 5,745
DAVID ARCHULETA

Looks like Best Buy and Wal Mart.

Ouch. I knew it was coming, but ouch. It still hurts. Well, that’s just 37% right… Yay for staying in the Top 15 thus far. (Okay, that took a lot of bravado just to type). Ouch.

A little question – does “last week” actually stand for “last week HDD was available”, which is two weeks ago?

Guns & Roses rose from 34 to 11? Wow. But apart from it’s debut week, it’s numbers were always low, so now everyone seems to have dropped to GnR. Heh.

Wow. Taylor Swift has 2 albums in the top 10 right now. Her first album got a huge boost. They had some of the rankings wrong on HDD, but they fixed them now. Taylor is still #1 (I heard she was going to be on SNL this weekend). *Like she needs anymore publicity and sales!* LOL. Cook will probably sell around 40K this week?

A little question – does à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“last weekà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  actually stand for à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“last week HDD was availableà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ , which is two weeks ago?

That’s what I was thinking too Jolene, because they have Cook as #13 and that was the only week he was not in the top 10, which was a couple of weeks ago. Also, wasn’t Archie 30ish last week?

Eh… whatever. Between singles, no promo, no holiday = lower sales. I’m not going to stress over January sales. Besides, David A. just performed a stunning National Anthem in 19 degree weather in Utah, so all is good.

Yes. HDD is basing on two weeks ago, based on the rankings that we’re seeing for “last week.” DC was #10 last week on billboard but #13 the previous week for both HDD and billboard. DA was in the 20s two weeks ago but in the 30s last week.

So, it looks like, so far, they are more or less maintaining their ranks from last week, which is a good benchmark in a bad sales month.

I’m thinking that GnR will slide down the rankings. (While there is still some Best Buy and itunes to go, as well as some Wal Mart for AC/DC, those acts won’t get help from Target or other sales sources.) Both Akon and Taylor Swift’s debuts have had unusual jumps in their rankings, so I would not be surprised to see them slide down somewhat once all is said and done. So, there is reason to hope that DC’s ranking will make it back into the top 10, which would mean rounded soundscan numbers on Wednesday from Billboard.

Guns & Roses rose from 34 to 11?

I don’t think GNR will stay at 11 after the rest of the updates, since it’s a Best Buy exclusive. Since the numbers will suck, my biggest hope for this week is that DC passes Akon to hang onto the Top 10… not sure if that’s possible though.

Cook will probably sell around 40K this week?

If that. I’m REALLY lowering my expectations right now. As long as he stays in the Top 15, I’ll be happy. Well, not happy, but it is what it is, and there’s no need to fret if he’s keeping pace with everyone else.

He’s 38k away from 850. If only…

January is always a bad month for music sales, since all the money was used up at Christmas. Chart positions may not change too much though…

There are no known Idol albums coming out in January either. Melinda Doolittle (February 3) is next.

Wait….I’m lost here……Is HDD reporting 2 weeks worth of sales on one chart? I thought they had been out for 2 weeks. If they are reporting for just last week, what about the week before? Am confused.

Guns & Roses rose from 34 to 11? Wow. But apart from ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s debut week, ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s numbers were always low, so now everyone seems to have dropped to GnR. Heh.

Some albums are still benefiting from the holidays. Not sure about GnR, but older albums that came out in the earlier to middle part of the year probably benefited from iTunes gift card downloads the most. Katy Perry, T.I., Metallica, Rihanna, Akon, the Mamma Mia soundtrack, Lil Wayne, Ne-Yo, etc.–all older albums that made a sudden “comeback” Christmas week, likely due to people downloading the albums that they’ve been meaning to download during the year but never got around to. We saw a lot of that last week, but we’re seeing the residual this week as well since this sales week started last Monday, not too long after Christmas.

That seems to make sense that we are still seeing a residual aftermath. I always thought sales dropped like 50% or more in January.

Ouch at those numbers! Good thing we’ve all braced ourselves.

Nope, JudyOhio. Basically, HDD is comparing the rankings on this week’s chart to the rankings from its chart for two weeks ago. When the final chart for this week is issued, the final rankings as well as the “percentage drop” will be compared to the chart for two weeks ago, which will make this week’s “percentage drop” look like even more of a bloodbath than it actually will be.

Itsalleternal, it’s worse than that: LadyM posted the following typical percentage decreases from last year (keyed to dates for this year):

01/04/09 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦.. -62%
01/11/09 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦.. -54%
01/18/09 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦.. -31%
01/25/09 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦.. -10%
02/01/09 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦.. 02%
02/08/09 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦.. 04%
02/15/09 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦.. 10%
02/22/09 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦.. 24%
03/01/09 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦.. -17%
03/08/09 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦.. -05%

Each week building off of the previous week’s total. As an example, we’d expect to see DCTR at just shy of 970,000 units sold through 3/8/2009, if his sales followed this pattern.

Ouch, that is one HUGE plunge…if those are cumulative, that is like a 90% decrease.

I wonder why there is such a huge drop off between 2/22 and 3/01? The sales seem to ramp up nicely until 3/01.

Rise in sales at the time of the grammys, then another slide down post-grammys.

Rise in sales at the time of the grammys, then another slide down post-grammys.

Ah. That makes sense. Thanks FolkFan!

Will idol sales be helped more than other recording artists because of AI8 being on

I saw GnR discounted at Best Buy in Southern California for $3.99. So who knows. Clearly we only have a fraction of the numbers and some major retailers have yet to report. I don’t think he’ll stay ranked so high.

January is going to be hard for everyone. Even Taylor Swift.

No, HDD didn’t report last week. So the rank of #13 was for 2 weeks prior. Skipped the week of Christmas when DCTR was #10. And now is projecting with 37% reporting, that DCTR is #12.

I tend to think iTunes already reported, primarily because of the bump up of older albums, and the higher placements of Katy Perry and Lady Gaga, both of which do much better on iTunes than most other albums (and Katy Perry was still benefiting from an album ad last week). If so, some of the albums will be skewed lower than usual based on their final numbers, and some will be skewed higher–all depending on whether they’re an iTunes seller or an offline seller, primarily. GnR is also available on iTunes. iTunes isn’t the *only* reporter, obviously–some of Walmart came in too. If it was iTunes and half of Walmart, then I think DA’s sales are probably around 90-95% Walmart-influenced.

$3.99?!? That’s crazy.

Arggh. It slays me that we might not get soundscan numbers this week if DCTR is pushed out of the top 10 because of massive discounting of other CDs. I mean, I know that discounting happens, and that there have been times that DCTR benefitted by being on sale this holiday season. But $3.99?

Maybe Ken Barnes will sneak a little post somewhere and let us know the numbers. (wishfull thinking, I know)

$3.99?!? Thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s crazy.

Arggh. It slays me that we might not get soundscan numbers this week if DCTR is pushed out of the top 10 because of massive discounting of other CDs. I mean, I know that discounting happens, and that there have been times that DCTR benefitted by being on sale this holiday season. But $3.99?

The sales have been happening all during December too. It’s nothing new. If a label wants to move units, they’ll do so however they can, even if it means ultimately taking a loss.

Fans of all artists have to deal with ups and downs of sales–discounting of other albums, promotion of other artists, TV appearances, etc., are going to change things week-to-week. It’s not the holidays anymore, so anything goes. An artist comes out with a new single and their album suddenly gets a bump; some artists get invited to the Grammys so they get boosts. Other artists don’t get much promotion right now so their albums fall. But then those artists get promotion the next month and they see a surge. Pink is doing better now than most because she’s got two singles in the top 25 now; before “Sober” hit the radio, she was seeing some heavier declines (relatively speaking). We just gotta deal with the fact that our chosen favorite may not have the advantage that other artists have at certain points in time.

It’s not the concept of discounting, etc. It’s the thought that DC could get that close to top 10, which is what we probably need in order to get soundscan numbers, with Ken gone from USA Today, and not get it. I know that we’ve been spoiled, with Ken to give us numbers. But, hey, I like to be spoiled.

The artists that stay in the Top 10 this month will be mainly due to radio play. That’s what keep Daughtry in (2006) and Keyes (2007) from huge drops in the pass.

Last year.

LAST UPDATE: 01/08/2008 13:06:14
NOW IN: FINAL

LW TW artist / album label power index % change
– 1 RADIOHEAD TBD/ATO/RED 116,375 –
IN RAINBOWS
– 2 ALICIA KEYS J RECORDS/RMG 110,232 –
AS I AM
– 3 MARY J. BLIGE GEFFEN 80,676 –
GROWING PAINS
– 4 NOW 26 EMI COMMERCIAL MARKETING 51,747 –
VARIOUS ARTISTS
– 5 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 45,539 –
TAYLOR SWIFT
– 6 GARTH BROOKS PEARL RECORDS 39,058 –
ULTIMATE HITS
– 7 JUNO RHINO 37,984 –
SOUNDTRACK
– 8 EAGLES EAGLES RECORDING COMPANY 36,474 –
LONG ROAD OUT OF EDEN
– 9 COLBIE CAILLAT UNIVERSAL REPUBLIC 36,323 –
COCO
– 10 CHRIS BROWN JIVE/ZLG 35,963 –
EXCLUSIVE

It’s really not a matter of the labels moving units, soundscene. Best Buy is taking the hits, because they bought the inventory. Yes there are consignment deals, but for the most part given how long both DCTR and DATR have been out, those inventories belong to the respective retailers. The price differentials are retailer hits to their profit margin.

Labels might eat up profits, but why? What have they got to gain by inflating false units numbers for GnR? I don’t see the cost benefit gain.

Retailers need to dump poorly moving inventory. Best way to do that is slash prices – that accounts for the slashed price for GnR.

That is very different from the $1-3 dollar differentials on DATR, DCTR, Pink’s, Nickelback’s or Beyonce’s records. Those ‘sales’ or short-term price reductions can drive and move traffic into a store and are determined by holiday calendars. GnR’s dump is not in the same category.

I tend to think iTunes already reported

I might be wrong, but I think up to now whenever we could detect an iTunes report, it was added as it’s own update (amounting to around 15% each time) and was never in the very first HDD report.
Of course that doesn’t mean things have to stay the same this week… but for some reason I don’t think iTunes is in yet. Which is a shame, really, since it won’t help the numbers much when it does get added, for either David.

I might be wrong, but I think up to now whenever we could detect an iTunes report, it was added as ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s own update (amounting to around 15% each time) and was never in the very first HDD report.

Nah, I remember another week where it seemed like iTunes was reported in the first span of reports. Nobody can ever say definitively, but there have been weeks where the iTunes percentage was never “found” within the updates, meaning it was buried inside a bigger update. I just know that Katy Perry and Lady Gaga never sold that well in Walmart or Best Buy. Lady Gaga I might chalk up to her single doing so well, but Katy’s single has been out for awhile now, and she had tons of ads on iTunes recently–she was at #1 on iTunes for a few days.

Labels might eat up profits, but why? What have they got to gain by dumping false units numbers for GnR? I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t see the cost benefit gain.

There’s a benefit when an album is tanking, like GnR’s album was, to move units in whatever fashion they can. At some points it’s about perception rather than short-term profit. If it seems to be selling ok, then it may get more publicity rather than being completely written off, which may move more units and get them to a place of profit. And it’s not just the retailer taking a hit; sometimes it is–when it’s a case of a retailer overstocking an item and they just need to get rid of it. But other times labels make deals with retailers and the labels take the discount hit. We can’t know which one it is; all is just speculation. But the idea that a label would boost the perception of good sales so that an album isn’t considered a total flop isn’t too far out there, especially when the album was expected to sell well.

37.1% with AC/DC and GnR in it just looks a lot like the typical first update, where Best Buy and Wal Mart have put in the first chunk of their sales. Those numbers are too high to be GnR from itunes without Best Buy. And 37.1 is too low to be the first Wal Mart, Best Buy, and itunes update.

The more unclear question to me is whether Target has reported anything in this group. With Xtina too low to show up in the top 50, we’re no longer certain when we’re seeing some Target stuff in the numbers.

^^ Or maybe iTunes isn’t reporting everything yet and Best Buy has come in too. Nobody knows how HDD reports (heck they reported the whole shebang a couple weeks ago on Monday); and all this is pure speculation. We have no way of knowing which is why such debates are useless–I made a simple comment based on all the older albums that seemed to get boosts (and otherwise shouldn’t have save for iTunes gift cards).

^^ We also don’t know whether market share is down for some retailers and up for others. iTunes market share may be up or down depending on the time of year. It may not remain static after the holiday.

But, you know, I could be wrong–I don’t know everything and we know almost nothing about how HDD gets its numbers. So iTunes may come in next. Ultimately it matters not because sales will be what they will be.

But again, soundscene, that is just GnR. Are you suggesting that GnR’s label is eating into their own profits? When a retailer like Best Buy cuts a price to $3.99 it’s NOT the label who’s Profit and Loss is impacted.

I am talking about Retailer owned inventory bought and paid for by Retailer P&L margins. Are you suggesting that Labels or Vendors control Best Buys’ or Retailers’ inventories? Wow, I can tell you right now the Consumer Retail analysts and the CPG industry would be shocked. Wall Street and their stock holders will be colored surprised, too. No vendor has that type of control over a retailer. Circuit City would not have filed Chapter 11 if that were the case. As for WalMart, they are the most powerful retailer in the world. RCA or BMG cannot dictate their inventory or pricing strategy. Sorry, they are wooing and begging WalMart to merchandise their products and gain more shelf space.

If your product gets delisted from WalMart because of your foolish strong-arm tactics, well, you can forget about making a profit. P&G and Campbells live in fear of being delisted. So I can hardly imagine that Record Labels would strong arm them.

Yes, Labels can help with some discounted price offerings, to help a debut or fledgling artists. But your suggestion on Label control Retailer inventory is not speculation, that is just erroneous.

Why wouldn’t iTunes report everything in one go? It’s not collecting info from different locations, it’s all coming from one digital resource. Doesn’t make sense to me that the report would be split.
I guess we’ll see if anything comes in that accounts for ~14.5% and boosts DC by a few thousands and DA by a few hundreds.

I hope you’re right and I’m wrong, soundscene, the overall sales would look better for it.

But the idea that a label would boost the perception of good sales so that an album isnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t considered a total flop isnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t too far out there, especially when the album was expected to sell well.

I think Chinese Democracy is past the point of no return. It has been cemented as one of the biggest flops in Rock history in the public eye.
I doubt slashing prices to sell a few K more will change anything about it.
The way I see it, it’s one catastrophe the label will look to put in the past, rather than perpetuate any further.

Some real intense HDD watchers here. I’m amazed anybody can crack their code and since they only predict (although usually very accurately), things can always change when the real numbers come out. But it’s pretty simple to figure out the numbers for albums in the Top 20.

I sincerely doubt Taylor Swift will have two albums in the Top 10 though when all the numbers are in. That’s kind of crazy.

Would HDD know what the market share was in a particular week in order to adjust the percentages? I always figured that the percentages reported was based on typical shares, and not the weekly.

Obviously, with the exception of the concept that Wal Mart and Best Buy** must have some reported numbers in, it is all speculation—as much fun as it is to speculate—-but I think that the better guess is that itunes is not in yet, and that the big increases for Taylor Swift’s debut and Akon are coming from the big boxes.

**Yes, GnR is selling on itunes as well, but I’d be shocked if it sold 5 digits on itunes this week. Thrilled, because DCTR was at or around GnR’s ranking on itunes this whole week. But majorly shocked.

SashaB–I never said anything that you’re assuming I said. I said that sometimes it’s the retailer getting rid of excess product (hence, putting the album on sale–which would lose them some dough anyway) and sometimes it’s an agreement between the label and the retailer, where the label eats profits and the retailer may or may not take a loss (and GnR is a Best Buy semi-exclusive–meaning there was already some deal in place). That’s it. An “agreement” between retailers and labels doesn’t mean that the label is “controlling” the retailer. I never said such a thing. Nor did I say labels “dictate” what retailers have to do. If the retailer doesn’t want to make an agreement, they won’t. They’ll just sell an album at whatever price it wants to and the label can go sulk in the corner because they don’t get to move units at that retailer that week like they wanted to.

I’m not even sure what you’re saying actually. Why do you think the album is being sold for $3.99? I’m sure it wasn’t just because Best Buy thought people needed more Guns N Roses in their life. Either it’s the retailer taking the hit or the label taking the hit–I explain how either is possible. With a price that low maybe it is just Best Buy selling off overstock. But we can’t know that.

BTW, I already edited my above post to respond to the HDD mystery. I made a simple comment and ultimately I don’t care. Sales will be what they will be. I don’t actually need to know who reports what and when; and I don’t plan on debating something we can never know. Maybe iTunes will report next, but it won’t matter. It’s all just one pile of stuff anyway in the end.

Soundscene, as I stated in my earlier post, slashed pricing like GnR’s $3.99 record at Best Buy is going to hit Best Buy’s bottom line. Not the Label’s. Best Buy most likely has far too much in its inventory and needs the inventory to turn or leave. They also probably read the same IRI and Nielsen data that the labels do, and realize that there is not great demand for this product. Hence slashed prices. But again, it’s affecting Best Buy’s P&L. So in answer to your query, the $3.99 hits Best Buy. I feel sorry for all the major retailers this week. It was a brutal red holiday season.

Yes, there are consignment deals between retailers and labels and those types of deals are happening with greater frequency across consumer retail. But major labels negotiate on the national account level with all the major big box retailers. There are negotiations that vary by each account and each retailer. Those negotations affect when promos, sales, or a weekend discount can take place. For example, it was probably very prudent that DATR did not go on sale in November, because the market perception would have been that the Label was trying to help it along. In other words, that DATR could not sell without the impetus of the label and reduced prices. Established artists like Beyonce and Nickleback could go on sale immediately by a few dollars because they are established. Cook and Archie had to wait until a certain time. All those negotations happened between the retailers and the labels. So the fact that both the Davids moved units without early price reductions is just a further testament that their products are selling. Good for them.

Are you suggesting that Labels control Best Buysà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ inventory?

There are a lot of issues being discussed here.

We do know that Best Buy is on the hook for 1.3 million copies of GnR’s “Chinese Democracy” (according to the Wall Street Journal). Those copies are non-returnable. The label is not taking a hit on those sales. That’s part of the deal with exclusive albums. On the one hand, you get people walking in the door who may buy other things (Walmart built an entire marketing campaign around it’s exclusive AC/DC deal and used it move a lot of t-shirts, etc). On the other hand if it tanks, you get stuck with the inventory. Inventory of non-exclusive albums can often be returned to the label.

Labels do build campaigns around cheaper albums. Big hit albums may stay on “sale” for years. I don’t know how they negotiate the “sales” with the stores, but I’m sure it is done in the same way that labels arrange for their artist’s CDs to be placed on endcaps or other advantageous locations (which is why the record store employees HATE people who re-arrange CD displays to feature their favourites because they are made to fix those re-arrangements. It’s like spamming DJs to do that). Or to have big promo posters placed in the windows or whatever. They don’t FORCE Walmart/Target/Whoever to do that, they just negotiate it (obviously giving them some perks. e.g. cheaper wholesale rates). There are lots of marketing strategies to move CDs and pricing/location/etc are part of that. Just as there are deals with supermarkets for sales on cereal (and to make sure that all the cereal brands marketed to children are on the bottom two shelves while the “healthy” ones require one to be able to jump to get them off the very top shelf)).

BTW LOL at the marketing done for “Chinese Democracy” mentioned at the bottom of that WSJ article.

Labelà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s do build campaigns around cheaper albums. Big hit albums may stay on à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“saleà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  for years. I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t know how they negotiate the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“salesà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  with the stores, but Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m sure it is done in the same way that labels arrange for their artistà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s CDs to be placed on endcaps or other advantageous locations (which is why the record store employees HATE people who re-arrange CD displays to feature their favourites because they are made to fix those re-arrangements. Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s like spamming DJs to do that). Or to have big promo posters placed in the windows or whatever. They donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t FORCE Walmart/Target/Whoever to do that, they just negotiate it (obviously giving them some perks. e.g. cheaper wholesale rates). There are lots of marketing strategies to move CDs and pricing/location/etc are part of that. Just as there are deals with supermarkets for sales on cereal (and to make sure that all the cereal brands marketed to children are on the bottom two shelves while the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“healthyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  ones require one to be able to jump to get them off the very top shelf)).

That’s pretty much what I was trying to say, but Kirsten made it clearer. Whether or not it was done for GnR really isn’t the point now (like I said, maybe it was just Best Buy selling off overstock), since I was talking in general when I said labels make deals with retailers.

Thanks, Kirsten for saying it apparently better than I could.

Yes there are consignment deals between retailers and labels and those types of deals are happening with greater frequency across consumer retail. But major labels negotiate on the national account level with all the major big box retailers. There are negotiations that vary by each account and each retailer, those negotations affect when promos, sales, or a weekend discount can take place.

I never denied any of that. Nor did what I say contradict with that. I said labels and retailers come to agreements. That I said it in a simpler manner doesn’t make it any less true. And I also said that Best Buy could be taking the hit on GnR because it wasn’t selling and they have too many–it was all just an example anyway because lots of albums have been placed on sale recently. Attempting to boost the sales of a struggling album (leaving GnR out of it) is not a far-out concept.

Yes, and that’s why it pays for a major record label to negotiate well on the national account level with big box retailers. Every label negotiates and deals with a retailer. In fact, every vendor that sells in a retailer does. Nothing is left to chance. Floor and shelf space, point of sale displays, and merchandising near the check out line are prime real estate at a retailer. Vendors offer their first born and a lot of perks to get that real estate. There are a lot of ruthless negotiations and bartering that is done. You never want to be on the bottom shelf. No eyeballs. But if you are a retailer that is tanking, that’s when they have to woo the vendor. It’s a dance of quid pro quo. Proctor & Gambles and Campells do this dance very well.

If you visit a WalMart – look where DCTR is stocked. I visited some last week. Prime real estate. There were three separate point of sale displays: in the alpha sleeves, in the best seller section, and in what’s hot on disney radio. WalMart is offering a bonus track and has Cook on Soundcheck. So RCA did some very good negotiating on behalf of Cook.

I noticed Walmart ramped up it’s DCTR pimping sometime after he did that Rock Band promo thing for them. I wonder if that was some type of deal cut. Also last week I noticed it was on a separate display with Nickelback and some other CD I cant remember now but they were on a display for Axe Mens hair products and the cardboard display said something about rock CD’s.

“So RCA did some very good negotiating on behalf of Cook.”

Totally agree with your entire post but RCA pays for the good location so I wouldn’t say it’s just “good negotiating.”

Totally agree with your entire post but RCA pays for the good location so I wouldnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t say ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s just à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“good negotiating.à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ 

Well the negotiation could be anything–it would still be a negotiation regardless of what the “payment” from RCA was. But yes, RCA has to give Walmart something in order for Walmart to give anything back. They won’t just do it out of the kindness of their little retail hearts.

Totally agree with your entire post but RCA pays for the good location so I wouldnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t say ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s just à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“good negotiating.à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ 

Oh let’s not start THAT again. LOL.

Any new HDD updates? Anyone? Bueller?

I’d say Walmart is getting the best of any deals involving music. With music retailers biting the dust and others cutting way back on space devoted to music, placement at Walmart is pretty damn important these days. So I’d say they’re the tail that wags the dog. Except Walmart is bigger than any major label around so they’re the Big dog.

Eventually,major artists will leave their labels and market directly to Walmart. They only need the label when they’re trying to make it not when they’re superstars already and the label takes almost all the profit from the album.

I think it’s perfectly fine to talk about the fact that labels pay for promotion. Just like movie studios and book publishers do. Is that a forbidden subject for some reason?

I think ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s perfectly fine to talk about the fact that labels pay for promotion. Just like movie studios and book publishers do. Is that a forbidden subject for some reason?

It was a fanwar joke, dude. Just let it go. I was trying to add a little levity, it seemed tense in here for a minute. Not that I wasn’t intrigued, but still.

So…. how about those HDD updates?

I’m late to the party so I may have missed some of the tension. I’m always interested in the business part of music so the posts I read by Sasha, Soundscene and Kristin (especially) interest me alot. Although dissecting where the numbers come from in HDD % is a litte like calculus to me (but I’m not here to spoil that fun.)

Not interested in fanwars, but am actually interested about the issue of labels paying for location. Would labels pay for in store locations with like, cold hard cash, like they would pay for a magazine/Internet ad or other promotions, or would that “payment” be in terms of a lower negotiated wholesale price? For the record, I have no clue what book publishers or movie studios do either.

Although dissecting where the numbers come from in the HDD numbers is a litte like calculus to me

Heh. It seems more like playing with a Ouija board to me (People see what they want. Nobody can prove they are right or that somebody else is wrong. It’s mostly harmless. It passes the time).

I think marketing strategy discussions are fair game. It’s only when one implies that the other guy is “cheating” or that “my guy is getting screwed more than your guy” that things turn ugly.

I found Trina’s mention of Cook’s album being grouped with men’s products and other rockers as kind of interesting. That’s one way of reaching a target market. I noticed that Archie’s album was predominately displayed in the door of a record store in a mall. Is that because malls were more likely to have teenage girls in them? Who knows? Taylor is trying to get himself hooked up with a cross-promotion for mother’s day. That’s probably his target audience. Would any of the Season 7 Idols fit in Starbucks? Maybe Brooke might? If people look at it simply as how to best market so-and-so and not at the my-guy-must-win-at-all-costs-and-passive-aggressive’s-R-us end of things, I think this can be an interesting (though slightly off-topic) discussion. There can be lots of winners. Nobody has to lose for somebody else to win.

Jason would seem like the Starbucks sort of crowd maybe, depending on the material and if he ever releases anything. But Brooke would be the other good bet, for sure. I thought that the grouping of Cook’s record on that men’s product display was a good idea, just like it’d be a good idea to group Archie with like artists. A high tide carries all boats, ya know?

Oh, you say that about the Ouija board now until you contact the ghosts of American Idol Fan Wars Past and you have to call in a priest.

Oh, you say that about the Ouija board now until you contact the ghosts of American Idol Fan Wars Past and you have to call in a priest.

I believe MJ keeps an exorcist on retainer for such things.

CHART DATE: 01/05/2009
LAST UPDATE: 01/05/2009 15:04:14
NOW IN: 51.61%

1 1 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 48,424
FEARLESS
6 2 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 41,271
DARK HORSE
11 3 KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 37,111
808S & HEARTBREAK
7 4 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 34,797
SOUNDTRACK
4 5 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 32,016
I AM… SASHA FIERCE
5 6 BRITNEY SPEARS JIVE/ZLG 31,166
CIRCUS
2 7 KEYSHIA COLE GEFFEN 24,961
A DIFFERENT ME
3 8 JAMIE FOXX J RECORDS/RMG 24,379
INTUITION
10 9 NOW 29 UME 23,482
VARIOUS ARTISTS
31 10 AKON SRC/UNIVERSAL MOTOWN 20,283
FREEDOM
25 11 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 19,760
TAYLOR SWIFT
34 12 GUNS N’ ROSES GEFFEN 17,939
CHINESE DEMOCRACY
13 13 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 17,813
DAVID COOK
42 14 LUDACRIS DTP/DEF JAM/IDJ 16,904
THEATER OF THE MIND
19 15 MAMMA MIA! DECCA 16,311
SOUNDTRACK
20 16 P!NK LAFACE/ZLG 16,076
FUNHOUSE
8 17 FALL OUT BOY ISLAND/IDJMG 15,983
FOLIE A DEUX
35 18 T.I. GRAND HUSTLE/ATLANTIC 15,626
PAPER TRAIL
45 19 KATY PERRY CAPITOL 14,926
ONE OF THE BOYS
– 20 LADY GAGA INTERSCOPE 14,089
FAME
24 21 ALL-AMERICAN REJECTS DGC/INTERSCOPE 13,271
WHEN THE WORLD COMES DOWN
32 22 KILLERS ISLAND/IDJMG 13,244
DAY & AGE
– 23 KINGS OF LEON RCA/RMG 12,718
ONLY BY THE NIGHT
33 24 METALLICA WARNER BROS. 12,712
DEATH MAGNETIC
40 25 RIHANNA DEF JAM/IDJMG 12,398
GOOD GIRL GONE BAD
49 26 LIL WAYNE CASH MONEY/UNIV MOTOWN 11,869
THA CARTER III
41 27 JASON MRAZ ATLANTIC 10,791
WE SING WE DANCE WE STEAL THINGS
9 28 AC/DC COLUMBIA 10,789
BLACK ICE
26 29 KID ROCK ATLANTIC 10,681
ROCK N ROLL JESUS
50 30 DARIUS RUCKER CAPITOL NASHVILLE 9,854
LEARN TO LIVE
12 31 ANTHONY HAMILTON LAFACE/ZLG 9,770
POINT OF IT ALL
16 32 PLIES ATLANTIC 9,554
DA REALIST
– 33 NE-YO DEF JAM/IDJMG 9,289
YEAR OF THE GENTLEMAN
48 34 ZAC BROWN BAND ATLANTIC 8,485
FOUNDATION
– 35 COMMON GEFFEN 7,906
UNIVERSAL MIND CONTROL
38 36 COLDPLAY CAPITOL 7,870
VIVA LA VIDA
– 37 HINDER UNIVERSAL REPUBLIC 7,492
TAKE IT TO THE LIMIT
– 38 ADELE COLUMBIA 7,486
19
22 39 DAVID ARCHULETA 19/JIVE/ZLG 7,445
DAVID ARCHULETA

Yep, David, right in line with Jordin. lol. This year’s sales are going to be worse than last year’s overall it seems. Part of that is just general album slump; part of that may be that the holidays were distributed differently this year cutting off sales weeks where they weren’t cut off before. But Taylor doesn’t look like she’s breaking 100K.

And this might be iTunes, then.

So do we root for 25 for DC or 35. Which is more realistic at this point?

14.44% increase, DC went up by 4,142, DA went up by 1,700.

Looks like iTunes.

NOW IN: 69.42%

13 14 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 22,361
22 42 DAVID ARCHULETA 19/JIVE/ZLG 9,356

So do we root for 25 for DC or 35. Which is more realistic at this point?

I’m betting on around 30k for this week. I was hoping to get close to 40, but oh well.
On the bright(ish) side, it doesn’t look like the album will have a significant drop in it’s ranking. I wrote on DCO yesterday that all I want is for it to stays in the Top 15. Hopefully it does, and that will be good enough.

In previous weeks on HDD, how much of a percentage increase did Cook get from 70% reporting to the final numbers?

mac, I can’t say that it’s exact science, but IIRC, usually he gets his biggest boosts with the first and last reports (Which I believe might be the Best Buy and Walmart updates). The report immediately after iTunes (51% to 69%) has often been weak for DCTR.
Again, this is just based on what I remember from previous weeks. I know things change from week to week, but I do think it’s been that way more often than not.

I’m going to say 32 for DC. That could still be quite high.

If this helps Mac:

CHART DATE: 12/08/2008
LAST UPDATE: 12/08/2008 17:04:01
NOW IN: 69.42%

10 9 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 88,424 -19%
DAVID COOK

Thanks. So he went up about 42% in sales from 69% to final. So if he gets 42% more this week from 22,000, that would be around 31K (ish…as Danny N. would say). Is my math correct?

Where do those numbers come from? Are numbers from deep down the charts – and off the charts – also available?

itsalleternal, if you are talking about the old numbers I pulled for Mac, they are from this thread:

http://mjsbigblog.com/?p=6188&cp=1#comments

Thanks. So he went up about 42% in sales from 69% to final. So if he gets 42% more this week from 22,000, that would be around 31K (ishà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦as Danny N. would say). Is my math correct?

Your Welcome. I was thinking around 31 or 32, but since sales are so low 6,000 or 7,000 more might be more realistic?

The numbers peeps will chime in here I hope!

Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m late to the party so I may have missed some of the tension.

Oh, its SO not that serious. LOL. It was a joke about a silly battle over promotion costs that was circling the net for a minute, and had a stop at mjs one time. Trust me, we’re already talking about it too much. I so didn’t mean for it to turn into an actual post topic, it was just a joke!

Anywhoooo… Brooke was made for Starbucks. So was Mindy Doo. Now HER new album should be in Starbucks. And you know who she should tour with? Raphael Saddiq. I know half of you do not know who he is. But he used to be in a group called Tony Toni Tone, and he recently released a very well received retro soul album. Jason needs to do a college tour like DC. I think one of the best things they did for Archie was the posters and concerts in middle schools. There was a rumor a while back about DC getting on Guitar Hero. Brilliant move if it happens. I am at a loss when it comes to MJ and Carly though. I think I need to hear first.

I’m referring to the current HDD numbers that have been posted – is there a place online where I can find them?

Kirsten I did some searching and here’s an article with more details about the display I saw
http://www.instoremarketer.org/article/46036

itsalleternal, Google Hits Daily Double and fill out the form on the front page, then once you are in click on the logo that says “building sales chart”

Thanks for digging up that info on the 42% increase from the 69% update to final in a past week. Between 31K and 32K makes sense, although I’m trying to set my expectations conservatively. I’m also hopeful that DC can repass Mamma Mia. Just, you know, on a personal level, I’d like to see that happen. [grin]

I wouldn’t be surprised if there was some sort of give and take to get good placement at stores. Hence, you see acts like DC and DA doing special Wal Mart editions, a number of acts with new CDs (including DC) did soundcheck, etc. There may be wholesale price negotiations, etc., as well. That said, I also suspect that some good placement is a reflection of what the store thinks will draw people into the store and/or into the media section to buy stuff. I’ve been to two different Targets in the last few weeks. One is in a bit more urban area, and the R&B/urban stuff gets much better placement than any other genre there. The other Target, which is closer to a larger number of residential areas and (while still in-town) further away from downtown spreads the love around a bit more, and has had better placement for other pop and rock acts. I especially noted some good placement there for the Jonas Bros., High School Musical, etc., which may reflect the fact that there are more kids and teens in that area. So, yeah, labels can try to, and probably do, influence things, but I’d think that the stores still take into consideration whether product placement can help them to sell more stuff. When the new U2 CD comes out, I’d think that plenty of stores will give it a prominent display, even without a thumb on the scale. Just my personal opinion, though.

The Axe thing is interesting. In connection with Axe launching a new line of hair products for men, they’ve put together this display at Wal Mart that features rock acts, including DCTR.

itsalleternal you can find them here:

http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/sales/salescht.cgi

Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m also hopeful that DC can repass Mamma Mia. Just, you know, on a personal level, Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢d like to see that happen. [grin]

Er….I might have bought one of those Mamma Mia soundtracks this weekend ::hides:: … it was only $5 over at Amazon!

I’m thinking I will be satisfied if DCTR hits near 30k this week. Dang, I’m glad we got prior warning about the complete and utter slide that would happen this week all around.

Kirsten I did some searching and hereà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s an article with more details about the display I saw

Thanks for finding that Trina. I’m always interested in the new things that the labels/stores are trying in order to reach new customers. This seems like a win-win for all involved.

HDD finals are in, but I don’t know how to copy them to here.

CHART DATE: 01/05/2009
LAST UPDATE: 01/06/2009 13:40:03
NOW IN: FINAL

13 16 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 31,252 -76%
22 47 DAVID ARCHULETA 19/JIVE/ZLG 13,656 -83%

Quick copy. Pam makes it prettier so am sure she will when she see’s them!

Here they are, Judy:

CHART DATE: 01/05/2009
LAST UPDATE: 01/06/2009 13:37:59
NOW IN: FINAL

LW TW artist / album label power index
1 1 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 90,783 -72%
FEARLESS
4 2 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 77,578 -61%
I AM… SASHA FIERCE
11 3 KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 72,489 -48%
808S & HEARTBREAK
7 4 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 69,404 -57%
SOUNDTRACK
5 5 BRITNEY SPEARS JIVE/ZLG 64,732 -67%
CIRCUS
6 6 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 64,483 -67%
DARK HORSE
2 7 KEYSHIA COLE GEFFEN 53,347 -84%
A DIFFERENT ME
3 8 JAMIE FOXX J RECORDS/RMG 47,742 -82%
INTUITION
10 9 NOW 29 UME 43,186 -69%
VARIOUS ARTISTS
– 10 ALL WRAPPED UP HOLLYWOOD 40,440 —
VARIOUS ARTISTS

…..
13 16 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 31,252
DAVID COOK -76%
….
22 47 DAVID ARCHULETA 19/JIVE/ZLG 13,656
DAVID ARCHULETA -83%

Welcome to January.

^Thank you

LOL. I’d just read your post over on the Headline’s thread. Fixed.

Or Kirsten. I knew someone would make them pretty!

I think they did great considering the slump!

Wow, that’s a harsh reality. Anyone have average percentage drops or does that only come with actual sales? I think they both did great, but what a bummer that we might not get actuals now that Ken Barnes is gone…

Thanks so much, Kirsten. Ouch, we were somewhat prepared, but what a punch in a stomach January is for everyone.

Yay for David Cook staying in the Top 20!

Fall Out Boys, Keysha Cole Geffen, and All American Rejects all plummetted and they’ve only just been released. Yikes. -84%, -78%, and I can’t see AARs.

Taylor Swift is a machine. Seriously a machine.

sam11ie, The percentage drops among the top 20 or so on the chart ranged from 33% (Ludracris) to 84% (Keisha Cole). A quick eyeballing says that most people were in the 50s ad 60s.

Wow.

Ouch. Way to arrive, 2009.

We will at least get official chart placing for Cook, as Billboard has a weekly article with the Top 20.
Probably no numbers unless they are leaked.

I wasn’t sure DC will pass 30k, so that at least is good to see. I’m so very happy he sold as well as he did during the holiday season, because whatever he did in a week then will probably take a month now.

Yikes. -84%, -78%

HDD is comparing these to pre-Christmas numbers (they didn’t run numbers the week between Christmas and New Year), so the percentage drop from last week isn’t quite so bad.

You can’t really mix SoundScan and HDD Numbers (because they have different basis), but in this case, last week’s SS numbers are a better measure of the drop to this week than HDD numbers from two weeks ago.

SS for DCTR last week: 101K ~Drop -69%
SS for DATA last week: 56K ~Drop -76%

Still yucky, but a little better.

Taylor Swift is a machine. Seriously a machine.

Is that why her label is called “Big Machine?” LOL

The drop is probably in the region of what you might realistically expect for David Cook, even if I had hoped for a smaller drop. Comparison with previous years is not easy because Christmas fell on different days, but it looks to me similar to how Daughtry did once you take that into account. I expect him to fall a further ~15% this week, and if the comparison with Daughtry holds, he should see a rise when American Idol starts next week, touch wood.

Edited because kirsten answered my question before I finshed typing it

:gulp_ee:

lmao @ gwen!

What is a reasonable guesstimation for DC for the week ahead? Is he likely/unlikely to pass 20k?
Rignt now he’s at ~843, so here’s hoping he makes at least 17k to close up 860.

I’m so unused to these numbers. Heh, 80k used to look like such a let down.

Kirsten Jan 6th, 2009 at 5:09 pm

Still yucky, but a little better.

It makes me feel better.

Hee^^ GendolynD. Well, other than Taylor, everyone dropped drastically.

Thanks Kirsten for the clarification. That helped with the percentage drops.

ETA: Guestimations in January are tough, Jolene. It’s a really rough time right now in the retail landscape and the numbers coming in are not good. But, I’ll be okay with the same amounts, well maybe with 10K next week. But that’s a guess. DCTR has been out 6 weeks, and he’s still in the Top 20 ahead of all the other rock bands except for Nickelback. Well ahead of them in total sales, too, again except Nickelback. So there’s some real and genuine comfort in that, IMO.

Yeah, it’s good that all the numbers for the Top 20 were bad. Comforting when you’re not the only one who got punched, I guess. Heh.

Nothing could prepare me for that…..

:laugh_tb:

I wasnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t sure DC will pass 30k, so that at least is good to see. Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m so very happy he sold as well as he did during the holiday season, because whatever he did in a week then will probably take a month now.

Um well technically we don’t know if he did go past 30k until Soundscan numbers are out, if they come out. The numbers suck all around. Both David’s ranking and numbers make my tummy hurt.

*punchesjanuaryintheface*

Well, Taylor had a pretty big % drop herself. Although those percentages are from two weeks ago. Sometimes the actual Soundscan numbers do leak. If you look at the HDD chart, it’s actually not that horrible. All the top 30 albums sold at least 20K. The entire month of January is usually pretty dire for music sales.

Archie needs his new single to break out or he could be off the HDD chart by next week. But I think the the return of AI (and especially their return performances) will boost both Davids.

Next week’s numbers could even be worse if past trends hold.

The numbers suck all around. Both Davidà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s ranking and numbers make my tummy hurt.

The numbers aren’t pretty, but DC’s ranking doesn’t make my tummy hurt. He’s close enough to the albums above him that there’s a chance his ranking will go slightly up with the real numbers (we’ll see come Wednesday) or, of course, it could also go down. For now, my expectations are adjusted to this new reality and I’ll take Top 20, since that at least gives us the benefit of official placement via Billboard.
Archie did take a tumble down, ranking wise, but at least he’s still in the Top 50.

What is a reasonable guesstimation for DC for the week ahead? Is he likely/unlikely to pass 20k?

He should do more than 20K. 25-30K would be my estimate.

I think Cook’s album usually follows the average percentage change of the BB 200 overall. I would expect sales overall to go down next week as well. I think Kirsten posted the general % change for January and it’s fairly dire. Things should change when AI begins again though. He’ll get good promo.

Obviously, if LO makes a big move up the Top 40 chart, they will help as well. Radio and promo are the engines that move the albums. So I’ll predict 20K or less and yes Regis that is my final answer.

I’m feeling sick about DA’s numbers :sick_ee:

If he goes out of the top 50 on HDD next and if no Ken Barnes to rely on for numbers, whatever will I do, wherever will I go? (tm Gone with the Wind, or a phrase similar to that)

:sad_tb: